The 2025 uptrend from 1.0177 topped near 1.2083 in Q1 2026, and price has been in a multi-month reversion since, now trading below the W1 EMA(50). EURUSD sits on the 38.2% retracement of that rally near 1.1355, with the recent swing low at 1.1324 the pivot; the 1.1500 prior floor now caps rebounds. EUR softness after the cooler EZ HICP miss keeps the euro pinned into US NFP.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.2083
What it said to watch
US NFP today is the dominant swing driver for this pair via the USD leg
W1 close below 1.1324 confirms a lower low and opens the 1.1300 psych level
Reclaim of 1.1500 needed to ease the multi-month downside
Range-bound between roughly 1.1300 and 1.2000 since Q2 2025, following the sharp Q1 rally off the 1.02 base. Price now sits at the lower boundary near 1.1380 after rejection from the 1.2083 January high; W1 EMA(50) sits above price around 1.16, so this leg is testing macro-range support. RSI holds the mid-30s, not yet at a weekly extreme.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1264
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.2000
What it said to watch
Weekly close below 1.1325 opens the path toward the 1.1264 swing low
US NFP today is the dominant near-term driver via the USD leg
Reclaim of the 1.1600 range mid would neutralise the pullback