EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 2 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Post-NFP spike faded, flat into weekly close · RSI 46 · price 1.12508
Late-NY range 1.1248–1.1260 inside the 1.1221–1.1285 NFP swing.
The 29K NFP miss lifted EURUSD from the 1.1221 session low to a 1.1285 NY high. Supply capped that high and price faded back to the 50–61.8% fib zone. Late-NY trade has compressed into a 1.1248–1.1260 range into the weekly close, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1248, 1.1242, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1248 range low exposes the 1.1242 nfp retest low and the 61.8% fib near 1.1245
Recovery above the 1.1260 range top reopens the 1.1269 london high
Weekend French fiscal headlines are a gap risk into the Monday open
Monday's EZ PMIs, ECB's Lane and Schnabel, and US ISM Services could shift this read
The 29K NFP miss lifted EUR/USD off the 1.1221 nfp low to a 1.1285 nfp high. Rejection there through NY hours has left price ranging 1.1248–1.1260 for about four hours, pinned near the 50% retracement of that move. RSI(14) is neutral and ATR has compressed to roughly 6 pips into the Friday close.
Support: 1.12478, 1.12452, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12607, 1.12691, 1.12851
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1248 range low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1245; losing that puts the post-NFP bounce at risk
Close above the 1.1260 range high reopens the 1.1269 london high and then the 1.1285 nfp high
Weekend French fiscal headlines carry gap risk for the Monday open
Monday Eurozone PMIs (07:55–08:00 UTC) and US ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could reset this range
Lower highs off 1.1285, boxed 1.1248–1.1260 late NY.
The 29K NFP miss lifted EURUSD from the 1.1221 pre-NFP low to the 1.1285 NFP high, clearing the 1.1269 London high, before the move retraced to the 50% fib of the NFP leg. Into the Friday close price is boxed between the 1.1248 swing low and the 1.1260 range top, with RSI(14) near 49 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.1248, 1.1231, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1248 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib of the NFP leg near 1.1245, then the 1.1231 Asian low
M15 close above the 1.1260 range top brings the 1.1269 London high back in play, with the 1.1285 NFP high above
Loss of the 1.1231 Asian low opens a retest of the 1.1221 pre-NFP low
Weekend French fiscal headlines carry gap risk. Monday Eurozone PMIs and US ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could reset this read
20:01 UTC
Post-NFP rebound, now flattening · RSI 57 · price 1.12588
Tight range 1.1248–1.1261 after a 1.1221–1.1285 NFP swing.
The weak US NFP print (29K) lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1221 day low to a 1.1285 NFP high early in NY. Since London close, price has held a 1.1248–1.1261 range near the 38.2–61.8% retrace of the post-NFP rally, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 5 pips in thin late-Friday trade.
Support: 1.1248, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1261 range top reopens the 1.1269 london high and the 1.1285 nfp high
A break of the 1.1248 range floor exposes the 61.8% retrace of the post-NFP rally near 1.1245, then the 1.1221 day low
Weekend French fiscal or budget headlines are the main gap risk into Monday's open
Monday's EZ PMIs and US ISM Services (f/c 55.7) could reprice the NFP move
Late-NY range 1.1248–1.1260, holding above 50% of the NFP leg.
The 29K NFP miss sparked a 64-pip squeeze from the 1.1221 day low through the London high at 1.1269 to the NFP high at 1.1285. That rally met rejection and faded into a 1.1248–1.1260 late NY session range, with the ny low sitting between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the NFP leg fib. Price is pressing the range top into the thin Friday close, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 1.12478, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12607, 1.12691, 1.12851
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1260 range top opens the London high at 1.1269, then the NFP high at 1.1285
Failure to hold the 1.1248 ny low breaks the 61.8% level of the NFP leg fib and exposes the 1.1221 day low
Thin Friday close; Monday's EZ PMIs (07:55–08:00 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Tight range 1.1248–1.1261 in late NY, above the 61.8% fib.
The US payrolls miss (29K) lifted EURUSD from the 1.1221 day low through the London high to 1.1285. That NFP high was rejected and price retraced to a range low near 1.1248, holding just above the 61.8% fib. Late NY has compressed into a 1.1248–1.1261 range, with price now pressing the range top and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.1248, 1.1245, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1261 range top opens the London high at 1.1269, then the NFP high at 1.1285
Loss of the 1.1248 range low and the 61.8% fib at 1.1245 exposes the 1.1221 day low
ECB's Nagel speaks at 19:35 UTC; with thin Friday-close liquidity, comments could break the range
19:17 UTC
Post-NFP spike faded, flat into late NY · RSI 45 · price 1.12542
Tight range after full retrace of NY rally, lower highs since 1.1285.
The 29K NFP miss lifted EURUSD from the 1.1221 session low to a 1.1285 session high during NY hours. The move was rejected and faded back to the 50% fib of the NFP move near 1.1253. Since London close price has compressed between the 1.1248 range low and 1.1261 range top on lower highs, sitting just under flat EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.1248, 1.1231, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1261 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 1.1269 london high
Failure to hold the 1.1248 range low puts the 61.8% fib at 1.1245 and the 1.1231 asian low in play
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC could jolt the thin late-Friday range
Loss of the 1.1221 session low would erase the entire post-NFP reaction
A recovery above the 1.1285 session high would invalidate the faded-rally read
Retracing the 1.1221–1.1285 NFP leg; compressing at the 50–61.8% fib in late NY.
The 29K NFP miss turned a London sell-off at the 1.1221 day low into a spike that was rejected at the 1.1285 NFP high, clearing the 1.1269 London high on the way. Late NY has since bled back into the 50–61.8% fib zone along a lower-highs trendline, and price is sitting on the 1.1248 late NY low with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR down to ~6 pips into the Friday close.
Support: 1.1248, 1.1242, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1248 late NY low and the 61.8% fib (~1.1245) exposes the 1.1242 post-NFP low, then the 1.1221 day low
M15 close above the 1.1261 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 1.1269 London high and the 1.1285 NFP high
ECB's Nagel ~19:35 UTC: open talk of October hike risk on the 3.8% HICP could jolt EUR off the late NY low
Weekend French budget headlines are an unscheduled EUR gap risk into the Monday Asia session
Tight 1.1250–1.1261 range under lower highs, late NY session.
The soft 29K NFP print lifted EUR/USD 64 pips from the 1.1221 pre-data low (nfp low) to the 1.1285 nfp high during NY hours, but the move gave back half and has held the 1.1250 range low twice near the 50% fib of the nfp rally. Late-Friday NY trade is compressing between 1.1250 and the 1.1261 range high under a run of lower highs, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 1.1250, 1.1245, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1250 range low exposes the fib 61.8 retracement at 1.1245, then the 1.1221 nfp low
Close above the lower highs line and the 1.1261 range high reopens the 1.1269 london high
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC, about an hour out, is the last scheduled risk before the weekend
French budget headlines are the main unscheduled risk to the post-NFP bounce
Lower highs off 1.1285 NY high, compressing at 50% retrace.
The 29K NFP miss lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1221 NFP low, through the 1.1269 London high, to a 1.1285 NY high. The move then failed back below the London high and into the 50% fib of the rally. Late in the NY session, price is compressing between the 1.1250 swing low and a 1.1261 lower high, just under EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.1250, 1.12452, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12607, 1.12691, 1.12851
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 1.1245 exposes the 1.1221 NFP low
A close above the 1.1261 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 1.1269 London high, with the 1.1285 NY high above
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC, plus thin Friday-close liquidity, could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 1.1285 NY high, holding above 1.1250 swing low.
London faded from the 1.1269 London high to a 1.1221 day low before the 29K NFP miss drove a rally to the 1.1285 NY high. Late NY has retraced to the 50% level of the post-NFP fib. Price is compressing between the 1.1250 swing low and the 1.1261 swing high, pinned between EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI neutral near 50.
Support: 1.1250, 1.12452, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12607, 1.12691, 1.12851
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1250 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1245
Close above the 1.1261 swing high reopens the 1.1269 London high and the 1.1285 NY high
Loss of the 1.1221 day low would erase the post-NFP move
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC could shift the read in a thin post-NY tape
Lower highs from 1.1285 session high, holding the 1.1250 swing low.
The 29K NFP miss reversed the London HICP-day selloff off the 1.1221 nfp low and squeezed price above the London high to a 1.1285 session high. Since then a lower-high sequence has formed, and after London close price is back at the 50% fib of the NFP leg, sitting on the 1.1250 swing low with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.1250, 1.1245, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1250 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1245, then the 1.1221 nfp low
Close above the 1.1261 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 1.1285 session high
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC is the only scheduled risk left this session and could shift this read
V-reversal from 1.1221; higher low at 1.1250, tight late-NY range.
London faded from its 1.1269 high and broke below the Asian range to a 1.1221 nfp low. The 29K payrolls miss then drove a 64-pip reversal to the 1.1285 nfp high, making the downside break a false break. Late in NY, after London close, price has pulled back into the 38.2–50% zone of the nfp fib and is consolidating between the 1.1250 swing low and the fib 38.2 at 1.1261, with rising support from the NFP low intact and RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.1250, 1.12452, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12605, 1.12691, 1.12851
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1250 swing low and rising support exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.1245, then the 1.1221 nfp low
Close above the fib 38.2 at 1.1261 reopens the london high at 1.1269 and the 1.1285 nfp high
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC, with thin late-Friday liquidity, could jolt the range
17:01 UTC
Post-NFP rebound, now correcting · RSI 51 · price 1.12562
NY high 1.1285 off the 1.1221 low; pullback holding 1.1250, inside the fib 50–61.8 zone.
London sold off from the 1.1269 London high to a 1.1221 low despite the hot HICP. The 29K NFP miss then drove a reversal through that high to a NY high of 1.1285. After London close, price has retraced into the fib 50–61.8 zone, with the 1.1250 swing low holding, RSI(14) neutral near 51 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.1250, 1.1245, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1250 swing low and fib 61.8 at 1.1245 exposes the 1.1221 NFP low
Reclaim of fib 38.2 at 1.1261 brings the 1.1269 London high and 1.1285 NY high back into play
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC and French budget headlines are the risk into a thin Friday close
Lower highs off 1.1285 NY high, half of NFP leg retraced.
The 29K NFP miss lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1221 NFP low through the 1.1269 London high to a 1.1285 NY high. Price was rejected there and has printed lower highs after London close, now sitting on the 50% fib near 1.1253 just above the 1.1250 retrace low, with the 61.8% fib at 1.1245 next.
Support: 1.1250, 1.1245, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 1.1245 leaves the NFP low at 1.1221 exposed
Recovery above the 38.2% fib at 1.1260 breaks the lower-high chain; back above the london high at 1.1269 re-opens the 1.1285 ny high
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC in thin late-Friday NY hours could shift this read
French fiscal headlines are the unscheduled EUR risk into the close
The 29K NFP miss lifted price from the 1.1221 day low to a 1.1285 NFP high during NY hours. Since then a run of lower highs has pulled price back after London close to the 50% fib at 1.1253, where the Asian range high also sits. RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and ATR runs about 11 pips.
Support: 1.1253, 1.1242, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1253 (50% fib) exposes the 1.1242 nfp pullback low, then the 1.1221 day low
Reclaim of the 1.1269 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1285 nfp high back in view
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC, late in thin NY trade, could move EUR; French budget headlines are the unscheduled risk
16:01 UTC
Post-NFP spike, now retracing · RSI 53 · price 1.12572
V-recovery from 1.1221, lower high off 1.1285, pullback holding 1.1254.
The 29K NFP miss reversed the London selloff, lifting EUR/USD from the 1.1221 day low to a 1.1285 NY high, but the move above the 1.1269 London high failed. Late in the NY session, price has eased back to the 1.1254 pullback low, between the 38.2% and 50% of the NFP rally fib, sitting on ema20 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1242, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1254 pullback low and 50% fib exposes the 1.1242 post-NFP low
Loss of 1.1242 would leave the 1.1221 day low as the next reference
Recovery back above the 1.1269 London high negates the false-break read; 1.1285 NY high caps above
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC and the Friday close into the weekend could shift this read; French fiscal headlines are the unscheduled risk
Retracing the 1.1221–1.1285 NFP leg; lower highs since NY high.
The 29K NFP miss lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1221 pre-data low through the London high to a 1.1285 NY high, but that break failed to hold. Price has printed lower highs since and sits on the 1.1255 swing low, between the 38.2% and fib 50% retracement of the NFP leg, just under EMA20 late in NY hours.
Support: 1.12548, 1.12529, 1.12422
Resistance: 1.12641, 1.12691, 1.12851
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1264 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 1.1269 London high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1255 swing low and fib 50% at 1.1253 exposes the 1.1242 NFP dip
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC; any cautious tone on October tightening could extend the fade
Return above the 1.1285 NY high would negate the false-break read
15:31 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, pulling back · RSI 54 · price 1.12595
Double top 1.1285, pullback to 38.2% fib.
The 29K NFP miss reversed the London selloff from the 1.1221 nfp low, and price cleared the 1.1269 london high before twice stalling at 1.1285, forming a double top. Since London close the pullback has retraced to the 38.2% of the NFP leg fib near 1.1260 and is holding the 1.1255 pullback low, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.12548, 1.12422, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12691, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1255 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 1.1253 and the 1.1242 higher low
Failure to hold the 1.1242 higher low puts the 1.1221 nfp low back in play
Recovery above the 1.1269 london high reopens a test of the 1.1285 double top
ECB's Nagel speaks at 19:35 UTC. French fiscal headlines are the unscheduled risk to this read
15:16 UTC
Post-NFP rally, pulling back · RSI 57 · price 1.1263
Breakout above London high, now retracing from 1.1285 session high.
London faded from the 1.1269 London high and swept the Asian low to a 1.1221 day low before the 29K NFP miss hit the USD. The post-NFP rally broke the London high and peaked at a 1.1285 session high. Rejection there has price back near the 38.2% fib at 1.1260, just under the breakout level, late in the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.1260, 1.1242, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1269 london high reopens the 1.1285 session high
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 1.1260 exposes the 50% at 1.1253 and the 1.1242 swing low
Break of the 1.1242 swing low unwinds most of the post-NFP rally toward the 1.1221 day low
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC and French budget headlines could shift this read into the weekend
Post-NFP higher highs and higher lows; London high broken, consolidating below session high.
The 29K NFP miss flipped the session. EUR/USD reversed from the 1.1221 London low, cleared the 1.1269 London high and printed a 1.1285 session high during NY hours. Dips have held the 1.1272 pullback low so far, with RSI(14) near 64 and cooling into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.12715, 1.1269, 1.1260
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the London high at 1.1269 turns the breakout into a false break and opens the fib 38.2 of the post-NFP rally at 1.1260
A close above the 1.1285 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.1300 round number
Losing the 1.1272 pullback low would break the latest higher low
ECB's Nagel speaks at 19:35 UTC; thinner liquidity after London close into Friday's end
14:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend after NFP, momentum stalling at highs · RSI 69 · price 1.1280
V-reversal from 1.1221 low; higher lows above the post-NFP trendline, London high broken.
The 29K NFP miss reversed NY from the 1.1221 session low, with the post-NFP low at 1.1242 holding and price clearing the 1.1269 London high. Price is pausing just under the 1.1285 session high with RSI(14) near 68, and the 1.1300 round number sits overhead.
Support: 1.1269, 1.1253, 1.1242
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1285 session high opens the 1.1300 round number
Slip back below the 1.1269 London high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the fib 50% at 1.1253
Break of the post-NFP trendline and the 1.1242 post-NFP low unwinds the reversal structure
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC tonight and thin late-Friday NY trade could shift this read
HH/HL chain from 1.1221 NFP low; London high at 1.1269 broken.
USD weakness after the 29K payrolls miss lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1221 NFP low, with a 1.1242 higher low during NY hours. The pair cleared the London high at 1.1269 and printed a session high at 1.1285. RSI(14) is near 70, and the 38.2% retracement of the NFP rally sits at 1.1260.
Support: 1.1269, 1.1242, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1300
What it said to watch
A close back below the london high at 1.1269 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1242 higher low and the post-NFP trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.1285 session high exposes the 1.1300 round number
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC could shift this read in thin late-Friday trade
V-reversal from NFP low, higher low at 1.1242, London high broken.
The 29K NFP miss flipped the session. EUR/USD rebounded from the 1.1221 nfp low, held a higher low at the 1.1242 pullback low, then broke above the 1.1269 london high and is now pressing the 1.1289 prior high in the NY session. RSI(14) is near 69, firm but not stretched, and ATR runs about 13 pips.
Support: 1.12691, 1.12422, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12894, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1289 prior high opens the 1.1300 round number
Slip back below the 1.1269 london high marks the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.1242 pullback low breaks the post-NFP higher-low trendline and puts the 1.1221 nfp low back in view
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC could shift the read late in the session
14:01 UTC
Uptrend since NFP, fresh session high · RSI 67 · price 1.12725
HH/HL chain off the 1.1221 nfp low; London high broken.
The 29K payrolls miss knocked USD and lifted the pair off the 1.1221 nfp low. A 1.1242 higher low held, and the 13:45 UTC bar then cleared the 1.1269 london high to print 1.1275 during the London-NY overlap. RSI(14) is near 67, warm but not stretched, and the prior high at 1.1289 from yesterday's NY session is the next reference above.
Support: 1.12691, 1.12422, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12894, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1269 london high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1242 higher low breaks the post-NFP HH/HL chain; below that the 1.1221 nfp low is exposed
M15 close above the 1.1289 prior high opens the 1.1300 round number
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC could shift this read
13:46 UTC
Post-NFP rebound within a two-sided session range · RSI 58 · price 1.12563
London false break above Asian range then below it; NFP spike reclaimed the Asian high, lower high vs London top.
London ran the Asian high to a 1.12691 London high after HICP, then reversed through the Asian low to a 1.12206 pre-NFP low. The 29K NFP miss sparked a USD-led spike that met rejection at the 1.12641 NFP high, and price now sits on the 1.12551 Asian high, around 70% back up the London high fib leg, with the 1.12422 NFP low beneath.
Support: 1.12551, 1.12422, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12641, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.12551 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 1.12422 nfp low
A close above the 1.12641 nfp high opens a retest of the 1.12691 london high
Loss of the 1.12206 pre-nfp low reopens the 1.1215 yearly-low area
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT and ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC could shift this read
13:31 UTC
Rebounding after NFP, capped below the London high · RSI 55 · price 1.12538
NFP V-recovery off a higher low; 1.1221–1.1269 session range with lower highs.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) halted the London-session slide at 1.1221 (pre-NFP low) and spiked EUR/USD to 1.1264, where supply capped it below the London high at 1.1269. The pullback held the 50% fib of the NFP spike near 1.1242. Price now sits mid-range in the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) neutral around 55 and ATR near 11 pips.
Support: 1.12422, 1.12206, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12641, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1264 NFP high and 1.1269 London high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1242 50% fib exposes the 1.1221 pre-NFP low, then the 1.1215 prior low
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC could shift this read
London fade to 1.1221 session low, NFP spike to 1.1264 rejected below London high.
The soft NFP print lifted EURUSD 43 pips off the 1.1221 session low to a 1.1264 NFP high, but the 13:00 UTC bar rejected short of the 1.1269 London high and gave most of it back. Early NY trade is now sitting just above the 50% fib of the spike at 1.1242, near EMA50. RSI is neutral at 52 and ATR has expanded to about 12 pips.
Support: 1.12424, 1.12206, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12641, 1.12691, 1.12966
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 50% fib at 1.1242 exposes the 1.1221 session low and the 1.1215 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.1264 NFP high and the 1.1269 London high reopens the path toward the 1.1297 prior high
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC and Nagel at 19:35 UTC could extend post-NFP volatility
French fiscal headlines remain the unscheduled risk to EUR
The broad NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) reversed the London fade off the pre-NFP low at 1.1221, recovering roughly 80% of the drop from the London high at 1.1269 in two bars. Price is now pressing the top of the day's range in the first hour of NY, with the Asian high at 1.1255 just below.
Support: 1.12551, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12691, 1.12966
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1269 london high breaks the day's range and opens the prior high at 1.1297
Slip back below the 1.1255 asian high returns price to the middle of the range
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC, medium impact, can shift post-NFP momentum
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC; per the digest, hawkish ECB remarks have drawn only modest EUR follow-through
Loss of the 1.1221 pre-nfp low would fully unwind the NFP move
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1269 London high; price mid-range of the NFP bar.
London faded from the 1.1269 london high after the hot HICP failed to hold. It printed lower lows into a 1.1221 session low before the NFP bar spiked to the 1.1258 nfp high and gave most of it back. Price sits at 1.1242, between the 38.2% and 50% of the London high-low fib, pressing the 1.1243 pre-nfp high and just over EMA20.
Support: 1.12206, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12428, 1.12583, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1243 pre-nfp high reopens the 1.1258 nfp high (61.8% of the London high-low fib zone above 1.1251)
Failure back below the 1.1221 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1215 prior low / yearly-low area
Rejection near the 1.1258 nfp high or 1.1269 london high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT and ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC could shift the post-NFP read
12:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, NFP spike testing it · RSI 48 · price 1.12441
Lower highs from 1.1269, session low 1.1221, NFP bar wicked to 1.1258.
London set the session high at 1.1269, then sold off from 10:00 UTC once the HICP beat drew no follow-through. Price slid to a session low of 1.1221, just above Thursday's 1.1215 low. The NFP bar spiked through the descending trendline to 1.1258 and pared back to the 50% retrace near 1.1244, sitting on the 20/50 EMAs with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 1.12274, 1.12206, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12583, 1.12691
What it said to watch
Close back below the nfp low at 1.1227 turns the spike into a rejection and puts the 1.1221 session low in play
Break of 1.1221 exposes Thursday's 1.1215 low (thu low)
Sustained closes above the 1.1258 nfp high (78.6% retrace) reopen the 1.1269 session high
Post-NFP bars and 14:00 GMT Factory Orders can extend the release volatility; ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC
12:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off session high · RSI 31 · price 1.12227
Lower highs from 1.1269, Asian low broken, testing prior low.
London faded the 1.1269 session high after the hot HICP drew no follow-through, carving lower highs and breaking below the Asian low at 1.1231. Price at 1.1223 has retraced nearly all of the recovery off yesterday's 1.1215 prior low, with RSI(14) near 31 and NFP minutes away.
Support: 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12313, 1.12428, 1.12691
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT, 15 minutes out, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1215 prior low exposes the 1.1200 round number
M15 close back above the 1.1243 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the session high
Reclaiming the 1.1231 asian low would mark the break below the Asian range as a false break
Lower highs off 1.1269 session high; Asian low swept, bounce capped near fib 38.2.
London pushed through the Asian high to a 1.1269 session high, then faded. The HICP beat gave no follow-through, and the slide swept the 1.1231 Asian low down to a 1.1227 session low. The bounce is stalling at 1.1243, the fib 38.2 of the London decline, with price back below EMA20 and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.12313, 1.12269, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.1243, 1.12551, 1.12691
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (under an hour) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) near 7 pips understates likely release range
M15 close above the fib 38.2 at 1.1243 reopens the 1.1255 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1227 session low exposes the 1.1215 prior low
Recovery above the 1.1269 session high would negate the London fade
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 33 · price 1.12367
Lower highs from 1.1269, sweep below Asian low then reclaim.
London lifted EURUSD through the asian high at 1.1255 to a 1.1269 session high, but the HICP beat failed to extend the move. Price rolled over through the 1.1240 break level and dipped through the 1.1231 asian low to a 1.1227 session low before closing back inside the Asian range. Lower highs remain intact into the NY open, with RSI(14) near 33 and the ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1227, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1255, 1.1269
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~1h) could materially shift this read; ATR is likely to expand sharply around the release
A close back below the 1.1227 session low turns the false break into a lower low and exposes the 1.1215 prior low (16-month low zone)
A reclaim of the 1.1240 break level and the lower-highs line would put the 38.2–50% London selloff fib (1.1243–1.1248) in play, with the asian high at 1.1255 above
ECB's Vujčić at 11:30 UTC; any pushback on hikes adds to EUR-specific pressure near the asian low
11:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 35 · price 1.12341
London rejected at session high, broke the Asian low, now lower highs and lower lows.
London lifted price above the Asian range to a 1.1269 session high, where it was rejected. Price then printed lower highs along a falling trendline and broke the 1.1231 Asian low to a 1.1227 session low. A firm USD ahead of NFP and French fiscal stress keep EUR pressed toward Thursday's 1.1215 yearly low; RSI(14) is near 35 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.12313, 1.12269, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12394, 1.1253, 1.12691
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; range expansion well beyond the 7-pip ATR is likely around the release
An M15 close above the 1.1239 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 61.8% fib of the London drop at 1.1253 next
Failure to hold the 1.1227 session low and the Asian low exposes the 1.1215 yearly low
ECB's Vujčić at 11:30 UTC; any pushback on hikes adds EUR-specific pressure
11:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London rejection · RSI 33 · price 1.12347
Lower highs from 1.1269, Asian low swept, basing at 1.1228.
London rejected at the 1.1269 london high as the hot HICP headline failed to lift EUR. The 09:45–10:15 UTC slide on French fiscal stress swept the 1.1231 asian low and set a session low at 1.1228, with price basing just above it on RSI(14) near 33 ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.12282, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12404, 1.12487, 1.12691
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC can override this intraday structure. ATR(14) near 7 pips understates the likely release move.
An M15 close below the 1.1228 session low exposes the 1.1215 prior low, which sits on the 1.1210–1.1215 yearly floor area.
A reclaim of the 1.1240 breakdown level, then the 1.1249 fib 50% of the London slide, would break the lower highs sequence.
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, oversold into support · RSI 29 · price 1.12341
False break above Asian high, then lower highs and a drop to the Asian low.
London cleared the 1.1255 Asian high and printed a 1.1269 session high. Sellers then capped price with lower highs, and the London drop cut through the 1.1240 breakdown level to a 1.1228 session low, leaving price parked on the Asian low with RSI(14) near 29. The HICP beat did little to lift EUR, and French fiscal stress kept it heavy; the 1.1215 prior low sits just below.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1228, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1255, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1228 session low exposes the 1.1215 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.1240 breakdown level and the lower highs trendline eases the downside read
Recovery above the 1.1255 Asian high would negate the false break
ECB's Vujčić at 11:30 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London session high · RSI 31 · price 1.12391
Lower highs since 1.1269, testing the Asian low.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1255 and peaked at a 1.1269 session high, but the move failed and the HICP beat drew no bid as French fiscal stress and a firm USD weighed. The selloff into the London-NY transition wicked below the 1.1231 Asian low to a 1.1228 session low before closing back above, with lower highs forming a falling trendline and RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1228, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1255, 1.1269
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1228 session low exposes Thursday's low at 1.1215
Reclaim of the 1.1255 Asian high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
ECB's Vujčić at 11:30 UTC is a secondary headline risk
10:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the London high · RSI 34 · price 1.1237
Lower highs and lower lows since 08:00 UTC; 1.1246 swing low broken, price testing toward the Asian low.
London faded from the 1.1269 session high and has broken below the 1.1246 swing low, retracing beyond 78.6% of the Asian-low rally; the 09:00 UTC HICP beat drew no bid, in line with French fiscal stress keeping EUR heavy. Price sits about 6 pips above the 1.1231 Asian low with RSI(14) near 34 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1246, 1.1252, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1231 Asian low exposes Thursday's low at 1.1215
M15 close back above the 1.1246 swing low and the 1.1252 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is likely to reset the range; ECB's Vujčić speaks at 11:30 UTC
10:01 UTC
Intraday range, momentum fading after London fade · RSI 43 · price 1.12481
False break above Asian range, lower highs from 1.1269, base at 1.1246.
London cleared the 1.1255 asian high to a 1.1269 session high, then rejected and faded back inside the Asian range. The 3.8% HICP beat got no follow-through as French fiscal stress dominates. Price is compressing just above the 1.1246 london low (61.8% fib) under a line of lower highs, below EMA20 and sitting on EMA50.
Support: 1.1246, 1.1231, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1255, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1246 london low exposes the 1.1231 asian low
Recovery above the 1.1255 asian high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.1269 session high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) likely ends the compression; a strong print puts the 1.1215 thu low in play
ECB's Vujčić at 11:30 UTC on HICP and further hikes
London broke the Asian high, rejected at 1.1269, now back on the range top.
Early London lifted EURUSD through the Asian high at 1.1255 to a session high of 1.1269, then supply faded it back to the 61.8% fib of the Asian-low-to-session-high leg near 1.1245. The hot 3.8% headline HICP with in-line core barely moved the pair, and price is coiling just below the EMAs.
Support: 1.12455, 1.12313, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.12551, 1.12691
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1255 Asian high reopens the 1.1269 session high
Failure to hold the 1.1245 61.8% fib exposes the 1.1231 Asian low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a strong print puts the 1.1215 yearly low back in play
ECB's Vujčić at 11:30 UTC is a secondary risk to the read
09:31 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling, back in range · RSI 47 · price 1.12481
London false break above Asian high, faded back inside Asian range.
London pushed through the 1.1255 asian high to a 1.1269 london high, then faded back inside the Asian range. The 3.8% headline HICP beat gave the euro no lift. Mid-London, price is sitting on the 38.2% rebound fib of the 1.1215–1.1269 move, just under EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR(14) near 7 pips.
Support: 1.12457, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12551, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1245 london low exposes the 50% rebound fib near 1.1242 and the 1.1231 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.1255 asian high negates the false-break read and puts the 1.1269 london high back in focus
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, prev 162K) could materially shift this read; the 1.1215 prior low and the 1.1269 london high bracket the reaction
ECB's Vujčić at 11:30 UTC may add volatility ahead of NFP
False break above Asian high, lower highs since 08:00 UTC.
The early-Europe push through the 1.1255 Asian high topped at a 1.1269 session high and failed back into the Asian range. The hot 3.8% HICP print at 09:00 UTC added no lift. Mid-London, price is testing the 1.1246 swing low, the 61.8% retrace of the Asian low–session high leg, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.12457, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12551, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1246 swing low exposes the 1.1231 Asian low
Recovery back above the 1.1255 Asian high reopens the 1.1269 session high
ECB's Vujčić at 11:30 UTC is the next EUR headline risk
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a strong print puts the 1.1215 yearly low back in focus
London false break above Asian range high, back inside range at 50% fib.
After Thursday's NY-session slide to the 1.1215 yearly low on French fiscal stress, Asia built a 1.1231–1.1255 range. London pushed through the asian high to a session high at 1.1269, but supply capped it there and price has slipped back to the 50% fib near 1.1250, just above the london low at 1.1246 (61.8%), with RSI(14) neutral at 49 as flash HICP lands.
Support: 1.12457, 1.12313, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.12551, 1.12691
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC is the immediate catalyst for a break of the 1.1231–1.1255 Asian range
Failure to hold the london low at 1.1246 (61.8% fib) exposes the asian low at 1.1231
M15 close back above the asian high at 1.1255 reopens the session high at 1.1269
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 1.1215 yearly low is the deeper reference
08:46 UTC
Recovery off yearly low, stalling below session high · RSI 54 · price 1.12545
Asian range broken higher at London open, price back retesting the Asian high.
London pushed through the 1.1255 Asian high to a 1.1269 session high, extending the short-covering bounce off yesterday's 1.1215 yearly low. Supply has capped the push, and price is back at the Asian high with RSI(14) near 54. Buyers have defended 1.1253–1.1255 three times since the open, and the rising trendline from the Asian low sits just beneath.
Support: 1.1254, 1.12445, 1.12313
Resistance: 1.12691, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%, core 2.5%) lands inside the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 1.1245 swing low takes out the 38.2% fib (1.1248) and exposes the 1.1231 Asian low
M15 close above the 1.1269 session high reopens the 1.1300 round number
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the session's second volatility event
Asian range broken higher, retest held, session high capped with a wick.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1255. It retested the level at 07:30 UTC and pushed to a 1.1269 session high, extending the bounce off Thursday's 1.1215 yearly low that followed the French spread stress. Rising lows remain intact with RSI(14) near 59, though the upper wick at the session high shows supply capping ahead of flash HICP.
Support: 1.1255, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12691, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.1255 breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.1231 asian low
Close above the 1.1269 session high opens the path to the 1.1300 round number, Thursday's broken level
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1231 puts the 1.1215 yearly low back in play
Asian range broken higher at London open; HL chain 1.1231-1.1245-1.1255.
Yesterday's NY selloff on French spread stress and a firm USD set the 1.1215 yearly low. Asia then printed higher lows at the 1.1231 asian low and the 1.1245 swing low along a rising Asia HL line. The London open broke the 1.1255 asian high, retested it at 07:30 UTC and is capped so far at the 1.1266 london high, near the 50% fib of the 1.1311–1.1215 drop.
Support: 1.12551, 1.12445, 1.12313
Resistance: 1.12663, 1.12743, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%) and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.1255 asian high returns price inside the Asian range
Break of the Asia HL line and the 1.1245 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1231 asian low
Close above the 1.1266 london high opens the 1.1274 fib 61.8, with the 1.1300 round number above
07:47 UTC
Short-term recovery off the lows, stalling at the London session high · RSI 54 · price 1.12563
Higher lows since the 1.1215 yearly low; Asian range high broken, retest in progress.
European open pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1255 Asian high and London tagged a 1.1266 session high before fading back to retest the Asian high. The recovery from the 1.1215 yearly low, set in yesterday's NY selloff, still shows higher lows along the rising trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 ahead of flash HICP.
Support: 1.12551, 1.12445, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12663, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1255 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the breakout
Loss of the 1.1245 pre-London low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence; the 1.1241 recovery fib 50% sits just below
Close above the 1.1266 session high reopens the 1.1300 round number
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%) and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a sub-3.4% print brings the 1.1215 yearly low back into play
HH/HL chain above the Asian range, testing 61.8% fib of the selloff.
Price broke the Asian high at 1.1255 just before London open and extended to 1.1266. That level is the 61.8% fib of yesterday's NY selloff and sits at yesterday's London low. Rising lows at 1.1231 and the 1.1245 swing low frame the rebound from the 1.1215 yearly low, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 1.1255, 1.1245, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1266, 1.1282
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 1.1266 (61.8% fib) opens the 1.1282 prior base from yesterday's pre-selloff consolidation.
A break below the 1.1245 swing low and the rising lows ends the higher-low chain, leaving the 1.1231 asian low exposed.
Holding the 1.1255 asian high as support keeps the breakout intact.
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%) and US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read.
Higher lows through Asia, Asian range high broken pre-London.
At the London open, EURUSD is retesting the Asian high at 1.1255 after a pre-London push to a 1.1262 session high, which sits at the 50% retrace of yesterday's 1.1311–1.1215 drop. Asia built higher lows from 1.1231 to 1.1245 off the 1.1215 yearly low, while the euro stays under pressure from French spread stress and a firm dollar.
Support: 1.1255, 1.12445, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12615, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1245 higher low breaks the Asia HL line and the recovery structure
Acceptance above the 1.1262 session high and 50% drop retrace opens the 1.1300 round number
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) can materially shift this read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC; a strong print puts the 1.1215 yearly low back in play
HH/HL chain since 1.1231 Asian low; Asian range high broken ahead of London open.
After Thursday's NY-session slide from the 1.1297 selloff top to the 1.1215 yearly low, Asia carved higher lows. In the hour before London open, price cleared the 1.1255 Asian high and tagged a 1.1260 session high, just above the 50% retrace, with the fib 61.8 at 1.1265 next overhead and RSI(14) firm near 63.
Support: 1.12551, 1.12445, 1.12313
Resistance: 1.12596, 1.12654, 1.12966
What it said to watch
Slip back below the 1.1255 asian high puts price back inside the range and exposes the 1.1245 swing low
M15 close above the 1.1265 fib 61.8 opens the path toward the 1.1297 selloff top
Break of trendline support and the 1.1231 asian low returns focus to the 1.1215 yearly low
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL sequence since NY low; Asian range top broken into London open.
After yesterday's NY sell-off printed a 1.1215 yearly low on dollar strength, the rebound has built higher lows at the 1.1231 asian low and the 1.1245 swing low. The 06:00 UTC bar lifted price through the Asian range top to a 1.1259 session high, with RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched.
Support: 1.12445, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12586, 1.12649, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1259 session high opens the 1.1265 prior pivot from yesterday's London session
Failure to hold the 1.1245 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 1.1231 asian low back in play
A loss of the 1.1231 asian low exposes the 1.1215 yearly low and negates the rebound structure
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) and US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; the 1.1300 round number is the upside reference on a soft payrolls print
06:01 UTC
Corrective bounce after NY sell-off · RSI 58 · price 1.12494
Asia higher low and higher high inside 1.1231–1.1255.
Thursday's NY sell-off, which ran with DXY's break above 102.00, bottomed at the 1.1215 yearly low. Asia then built a higher low at the 1.1231 asian low and pushed to a 1.1255 asian high. Ahead of London open, price is holding a shallow pullback low at 1.1245, near the 38.2% of the Asia leg, with RSI(14) around 58.
Support: 1.12445, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12551, 1.12666
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1255 asian high extends the Asia higher-high chain toward the 1.1267 breakdown shelf
Loss of the 1.1245 pullback low and the rising Asia trendline puts the 1.1231 asian low back in play
Break of the 1.1215 yearly low resumes the NY sell-off structure
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%) and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Rebound off day low, momentum flattening · RSI 56 · price 1.12497
Higher lows off 1.1215 day low, stalling just under the 1.1255 Asian high.
Yesterday's NY-session slide, driven by USD strength and French spread stress, tagged a 1.1215 day low. Asia has since built a chain of rising lows off the 1.1231 Asian low to a 1.1255 Asian high. Price is easing to 1.1250 into the London open, still above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 56 and the rebound fib intact.
Support: 1.12471, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12551, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1255 Asian high extends the rising lows chain and opens the path toward the 1.1300 round number
Loss of the 1.1247 micro low and the rising lows line near 1.1240 shifts the read to rotation back toward the 1.1231 Asian low, the rebound fib 61.8%
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a break of the 1.1215 day low resumes the intraday downtrend
Higher lows off 1.1215; price at top of 1.1231–1.1255 Asian range.
Late Asia session is pressing the Asian high at 1.1255 after a steady climb from the 1.1231 Asian low. That puts price at a 38.2% retrace of Thursday's 1.1311–1.1215 leg, which fell during NY hours as the hot ISM prices paid lifted DXY above 102. RSI(14) sits near 70 and ATR is around 3 pips; the overnight prior high at 1.1249 is now acting as the floor.
Support: 1.12489, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12551, 1.1263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1255 Asian high opens the 50% fib at 1.1263
Failure to hold the 1.1249 prior high returns price toward the 1.1231 Asian low
Break of rising support and the 1.1215 swing low resumes the downtrend
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.1215, pressing Asian range high.
The NY sell-off took EUR to a 1.1215 swing low as the dollar held near 18-month highs. Late Asia has worked back from the 1.1231 Asian low to test the 1.1255 session high, which sits on the 38.2% fib retrace of the 1.1311–1.1215 drop. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR is a thin 3.6 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1246, 1.1231, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1255, 1.1263, 1.1282
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1255 session high opens the 50% fib at 1.1263, then the 1.1282 prior shelf where the NY breakdown began
Slip back below the 1.1246 prior high returns price to the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.1231 Asian low exposes the 1.1215 swing low and breaks the rising-lows line
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.12313 above NY low, testing Asian high and 38.2% fib.
Late in the Asia session, EURUSD has printed a higher low at the asian low of 1.12313, above yesterday's ny low of 1.12148. Price is now pressing the asian high at 1.12539, which coincides with the 38.2% fib retrace of the 1.13111–1.12148 NY sell-off that came as DXY pushed above 102.00. The recovery is a thin, flag-like grind along rising support, with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR(14) around 3.6 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12489, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12539, 1.1263, 1.12745
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.12539 opens the fib 50% at 1.12630, then the fib 61.8% at 1.12745 near the NY breakdown
Failure to hold the prior high at 1.12489 puts the asian low at 1.12313 and the rising support line back in focus
A break below the ny low at 1.12148 resumes the intraday downtrend and invalidates the flag read
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%) and US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the NY low, testing the Asian high.
The NY-session selloff, with hot ISM prices paid feeding Fed-hike repricing, bottomed at the 1.12148 NY low. Late Asia has built higher lows off the 1.12313 Asian low and is now pressing the 1.12539 Asian high, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.13111–1.12148 drop. RSI(14) is at 74 and ATR(14) is about 3.4 pips, so the tape is thin ahead of HICP.
Support: 1.12489, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12539, 1.1263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12539 asian high exposes the fib 50% at 1.1263
Failure to hold the 1.12489 prior high puts the 1.12313 asian low back in focus
A break of the higher-low trendline from the ny low negates the Asia rebound read
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 1.1215 day low, pressing the Asian high.
Late Asia has climbed from the 1.1231 Asian low to test the 1.1254 Asian high, retracing about 44% of yesterday's USD-driven NY slide to the 1.1215 day low, with price holding above the ema20 near 1.1244. The 1.1265 broken low from London aligns with the 61.8% fib of that drop, and RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched on an ATR of about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.1244, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12539, 1.12649
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1254 Asian high opens the 1.1265 broken low and 61.8% fib
Loss of the ema20 at 1.1244 returns focus to the 1.1231 Asian low and the rising support line
Break of the 1.1215 day low resumes the downtrend
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and ECB Cipollone at 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the main volatility risk for the session
03:46 UTC
Recovering from NY low, steady late-Asia grind higher · price 1.12511
Higher lows through Asia after NY low; testing Asian high at 1.1250.
The NY sell-off after the hot ISM prices paid read made a day low at 1.12148. Asia has since built higher lows off the 1.12313 Asian low and is now pressing the 1.1250 Asian high, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.13111–1.12148 drop, with RSI(14) at 67 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12503, 1.1263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1250 Asian high opens the fib 50% at 1.1263
Loss of the rising lows and a break of the 1.12313 Asian low returns focus to the 1.12148 day low
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%) can expand ranges well beyond the current ATR
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Late Asia, price is back at the 1.1249 Asian high after a higher low at the 1.1231 Asian low held above Thursday's 1.1215 NY low. That low ended a 115-pip slide from 1.1330, driven by oil, French spreads and a firm USD after the hot ISM prices-paid print. The 38.2% fib of the sell-off sits at 1.1259.
Support: 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.1259
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1249 Asian high opens the 38.2% fib at 1.1259
Break of the 1.1231 Asian low and the rebound trendline exposes the 1.1215 NY low
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low off 1.1215; price inside 1.1231–1.1249 Asian range, testing the top.
Thursday's London and post-ISM NY sell-off from 1.1330 bottomed at the 1.1215 session low on French spread stress and a firm USD. Late NY and Asia have built a higher-low base along rising support, with price back at the Asian high and the 23.6% fib of the sell-off near 1.1242. RSI(14) is around 56, ATR(14) is near 4 pips, and mid-Asia trade is quiet.
Support: 1.1240, 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.12649
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1249 asian high, with EMA50 just overhead, opens the 1.1265 london low
Loss of the ema20 and the 1.1231 asian low breaks the higher-low sequence and rising support
A break of the 1.1215 session low resumes the sell-off structure
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.12421
Post-selloff consolidation inside a tight Asian range, higher low off NY low.
The NY selloff from 1.1311 to the 1.1215 NY low came on oil, French spread stress and broad USD strength, then late-NY buying lifted price back to 1.1246. Mid-Asia, price sits inside a 1.1231–1.1249 Asian range, just above EMA20 and below EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and the rebound line from the NY low still intact.
Support: 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.12517
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1249 Asian high exposes the 1.1252 breakdown level near the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib
Break of the 1.1231 Asian low and the rebound line puts the 1.1215 NY low back in play
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (~6h) and US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend paused, Asia consolidation · RSI 48 · price 1.12411
Post-selloff rebound capped below 38.2% fib; Asian range 1.1231–1.1249.
Thursday's NY selloff ran EUR/USD to a day low at 1.1215 as DXY cleared 102.00 on oil and French spread stress. The rebound stalled under the 38.2% fib near 1.1246. Asia is boxed between the asian low at 1.1231 and the asian high at 1.1249, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price pinned between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1249, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.1249 and the 38.2% fib opens a retest of the london low at 1.1265
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1231 exposes the day low at 1.1215
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) is the main volatility risk for the session
Lower high at 1.1249 under 38.2% fib, Asian range 1.1231–1.1249.
Thursday's London selling, on French spread stress and oil, accelerated during NY hours after the ISM Prices Paid beat and bottomed at the 1.1215 NY low. The late-session rebound stalled at the 1.1249 Asian high, just under the 38.2% fib, and early Asia is ranging 1.1231–1.1249 with price pinned near flat EMAs.
Support: 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.12649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1231 Asian low puts the 1.1215 NY low back in play
Close above the 1.1249 Asian high and 38.2% fib opens the old London low at 1.1265
London open and ECB Cipollone at 07:30 UTC set the first test of the Asian range
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.12358
Post-selloff rebound capped at Asian high, drifting toward Asian low.
Thursday's oil- and French-spread-driven slide bottomed at the 1.1215 NY low. The rebound was rejected at the 1.1249 Asian high, and price now sits in the lower half of the Asian range on the 38.2% retrace, below both EMAs with ATR compressed near 3 pips.
Support: 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.12649
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1231 Asian low exposes the 1.1215 NY low and a lower-low
Recapture of the 1.1249 Asian high opens a retest of the 1.1265 London low
ECB Cipollone at 07:30 UTC and Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; NFP at 12:30 UTC follows
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia drifting lower · RSI 37 · price 1.12357
Lower high at asia high; bounce half-retraced.
The NY sell-off after the hot ISM prices paid print cut through the London low at 1.12692 to a 1.12148 swing low, as broad dollar demand kept EUR at YTD lows. Asia rejected 1.12489 (asia high) and slipped to 1.12313, near the 50% of the bounce fib, with RSI(14) at 37 and ATR(14) at 3.3 pips.
Support: 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.12692
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12313 asia low exposes the 1.12148 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.12489 asia high negates the lower-high read; the london low at 1.12692 is the next cap
EZ flash HICP 09:00 UTC and US NFP 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce fading · RSI 38 · price 1.12336
Lower high at 1.12489 after NY low; price back at the Asian range low.
Thursday's London and NY sell-off, driven by French spread stress and a safe-haven dollar bid, bottomed at the 1.12148 day low late in NY hours. The recovery was rejected at the 1.12489 Asian high, and price has slipped back to the 1.12328 Asian low. That is near the 50% retracement of the recovery fib, with RSI(14) at 38 and ATR compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12328, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.12649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12328 Asian low exposes the 61.8% recovery fib near 1.1228, then the 1.12148 day low
Reclaim of the 1.12489 Asian high negates the lower-high read and puts the 1.12649 London low in view
ECB Cipollone at 07:30 UTC and EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (core f/c 2.5%) could expand the compressed ATR
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the main volatility risk for this structure later in the day
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.12346
Late-NY base 1.1215–1.1246, Asian rebound capped at 1.1249 and fading.
Thursday's ~120-pip London-NY sell-off, driven by French spread stress and a firmer dollar, bottomed at the 1.1215 NY low. The Asia session rebound was rejected at 1.1249, just under the 38.2% fib of the NY leg. Price has slipped from the 1.1243 Asian base back to the 1.1233 Asian low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.1233, 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1243, 1.1249, 1.1252
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1233 Asian low exposes the 1.1215 NY low, with the 1.1200 round number below
Recovery above the 1.1243 Asian base and the 1.1249 Asian high would put the 38.2% fib at 1.1252 back in play
Cipollone at 07:30 UTC and EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%) could reset the London range
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the main volatility risk for the NY session
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, Asia retracing the bounce · RSI 37 · price 1.1234
Lower high at 1.1249, Asian low under test.
The NY session extended Thursday's slide through the 1.1265 London low to a 1.1215 NY low, as DXY cleared 102.00 and French spread stress weighed. The overnight bounce stalled with a rejection at the 1.1249 Asian high. Price is back at 1.1234, sitting on the Asian low between the 50% and 61.8 fib of that rebound, with RSI(14) at 37 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.1233, 1.1228, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1249, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1233 Asian low exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.1228 and the 1.1215 NY low
Recovery above the 1.1249 Asian high negates the lower-high read; the 1.1265 London low is the next cap
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%) and Cipollone at 07:30 UTC could reset the Asian range
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the larger volatility risk later in the day
Lower high at 1.1249 under 1.1311 swing high; testing Asian range low.
The NY sell-off took EURUSD to a 1.1215 day low as French spread stress and a firm dollar weighed. The rebound stalled short of the 38.2% fib of the 1.1311–1.1215 drop. Early Asia rejected the 1.1249 asian high, and price is now pressing the 1.1233 asian low, below the ema20.
Support: 1.12328, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12405, 1.12489
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1233 asian low opens a retest of the 1.1215 day low
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 1.1249 asian high invalidates the lower-high read
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%) and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1311; post-low range 1.1233–1.1249.
EUR/USD broke below 1.1300 and slid to a 1.1215 day low during NY hours as French spread stress and a firm dollar weighed. The evening bounce stalled at the 1.1249 session high, just under the 38.2% fib, and early Asia is slipping back toward the 1.1233 rollover low with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.1233, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1249, 1.1290
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1249 session high and the 38.2% fib undercuts the fading-bounce read
Failure to hold the 1.1233 rollover low exposes the 1.1215 day low
Prior range at 1.1290 caps any extended recovery
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and Cipollone at 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a shallow bounce · RSI 51 · price 1.12417
Tight Asian range above the NY low at 1.1215, holding below the 38.2% retrace.
French spread stress and DXY clearing 102.00 drove a London-then-NY slide from the 1.1311 midday high to a day low at 1.1215. The bounce has stalled into a 9-pip Asian range. The first push at the asian high (1.1249) met rejection back to the asian floor near 1.1240, still under the 38.2% fib at 1.1252.
Support: 1.1240, 1.12328, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.12516, 1.12708
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.1252 reopens the ny breakdown zone near 1.1271
Failure at the asian floor, then the rollover low at 1.1233, breaks the recovery line from the day low
Loss of the 1.1215 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
Cipollone 07:30 UTC and EZ flash HICP 09:00 UTC could break the Asian range; US NFP 12:30 UTC follows
Higher lows off 1.1215 day low, testing 38.2% fib in early Asia.
The US-session leg lower on ISM prices paid and French spread stress bottomed at the 1.1215 day low. Since then price has carved a slow flag of higher lows, holding above the 1.1233 rollover low and the 1.1240 asia low. Early Asia is now pressing the 1.1252 38.2% fib of the 1.1311–1.1215 drop, with ATR compressed near 3 pips.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1233, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1252, 1.1263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1252 38.2% fib opens the 1.1263 50% fib
Break of flag support and the 1.1233 rollover low reopens the 1.1215 day low
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and Cipollone at 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the larger volatility risk for the NY session