Uptrend intact with a series of higher lows since the mid-month base near 1.1353; the leg above 1.1460 was USD-weakness driven and pushed price to a 7-week high at 1.1559. That high was rejected and price has since eased back toward the 1.1500 round number, with ATR expanded from the prior compression as the trend extended. Repeated failures below 1.1565 mark it as the area capping the advance.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1455, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1559, 1.1565, 1.1615
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1565 opens the path toward 1.1615
Failure to hold 1.1500 undermines the higher-low structure toward 1.1455
EZ Services PMI Wed and US ISM Services/ADP could reprice USD and shift this read
EUR/USD broke out of the 1.1470 consolidation ceiling on broad USD selling, extending to a 7-week high at 1.1559 before stalling below the 1.1556/65 resistance. Higher-low structure remains intact and price holds above EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) expanded through the breakout and is now easing as the pair consolidates in the 1.15 handle. Repeated failure to clear 1.1556/65 flags a stretched, USD-dependent leg.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14811, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.15586
What it said to watch
Sustained rejection at 1.1556/65 marks rally exhaustion
Loss of 1.1455 pivot undermines the bullish structure
EZ Services PMI and US ADP Wed could materially shift this read
Clean uptrend since the late-month low near 1.1353, driven by Fed-led USD weakness that pushed EUR to its highest since mid-June. Momentum is cooling into the 1.1559 swing high, with price now coiling in the high-1.15s and ATR contracting after the impulse leg. Demand has repeatedly stepped in above 1.1504, keeping the higher-low sequence intact.
Support: 1.1504, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1559, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1559 opens the 1.1565-1.1600 resistance band
Failure to hold 1.1504 threatens the higher-low structure
US ISM today 14:00 UTC could shift this USD-driven read
Price broke clear of the 1.1450-1.1470 multi-week range and ran five straight sessions to 1.1558, the highest since mid-June, driven by post-Fed USD weakness and firm EZ inflation. ATR(14) has expanded as the impulse extended, with EMA20 and EMA50 both below spot. The 100-day SMA near 1.1570 is capping the advance just overhead.
Support: 1.1530, 1.1481, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1570
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1570 100-day sma opens path higher
Failure to hold 1.1530 support signals loss of breakout momentum
US ISM Manufacturing today 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 67 · price 1.15296
Higher highs / higher lows, range broken.
EURUSD broke out of the multi-week 1.1420-1.1470 range and extended to a fresh 1.1559 swing high, powered by Fed-driven USD weakness after the soft Q2 GDP and in-line core PCE prints. Price cleared the 1.1537 six-week high before easing back to the mid-1.15s; structure remains a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows with price holding well above EMA20 and EMA50. Elevated but not overbought RSI leaves room, though the move is now stretched from its base.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14811, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.15586, 1.1537
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.1500 threatens the breakout structure
Reclaim of the 1.1559 swing high opens continuation higher
EZ Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and US ISM (14:00 UTC) could shift this read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 68 · price 1.15391
Higher highs and higher lows, range top broken.
Strong impulsive rally off the late-July low near 1.1353 has carried price through the top of the 1.1450-1.1550 range and printed a six-week high at 1.1559, the Fed-driven leg the market_context flags. ATR(14) is expanding and both EMAs sit below price, but RSI in the high-60s shows the move stretched into the range top where USD short-covering has been capping. Follow-through above 1.1559 is needed to confirm a clean range break rather than a rejection.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1455, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.15586, 1.15367
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.1500 signals a failed breakout and return into the range
Sustained close above 1.1559 opens continuation above the six-week high
ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read