21:01 UTC
Downtrend, deeply oversold · RSI 18 · price 1.12533
Lower highs and lower lows since the 21 Aug peak; June low broken.
EUR/USD has posted a clean lower-high chain since the 1.1711 rejection on 21 Aug: a lower high at 1.1654 on 8 Sep, then sellers capped the mid-Sept rebound under a descending trendline. The 1 Oct leg broke the June low at 1.1324 and the July range floor, printing a 1.1215 swing low, a fourth straight weekly decline as French fiscal stress widened spreads and the USD caught a relative-safety bid despite the soft NFP. Price sits far below a falling EMA(50), and RSI near 18 is a genuine D1 oversold reading after roughly 450 pips in three weeks.
Support: 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.13242, 1.14545, 1.16537
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 1.1215 swing low extends the lower-low chain and puts the 1.1200 psych level in play
- A recovery through the descending trendline (~1.1290) and back above the 1.1324 june low would mark a failed range break
- The 50% fib of the Aug–Oct drop near 1.1463 sits with the sept shelf at 1.1455, where a deeper rebound would meet prior support turned resistance
- A daily close above the 1.1654 lower high is needed to invalidate the downtrend read
- ECB Cipollone/Elderson Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read, given the oversold RSI and net-short EUR positioning