21:01 UTC
Downtrend, deeply oversold · RSI 17 · price 1.12501
Lower highs from the 1.1711 August high, June–July floor broken.
The downtrend from the 1.1711 August high has run for six weeks of lower highs (1.1654, then the 1.1410 lower high). This week it broke the 1.1324 june low that floored the June–July range, with Thursday's 120-pip drop on French fiscal stress setting a 1.1215 swing low. Friday's soft NFP drew only a modest bounce off that low. Price sits well below EMA20 and EMA50, and RSI near 17 is a genuinely oversold D1 reading for a move of this length.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1324, 1.1410, 1.1463
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.1215 swing low and the 1.1200 psych area extends the lower-low sequence
- Reclaim of the 1.1324 june low (near the 38.2% retrace at 1.1311) would mark the range break as a false break
- A rebound that holds below the lower-high trendline keeps the Aug–Oct decline structure intact; the 1.1410 lower high and the fib 50% at 1.1463 sit above
- Mon EZ PMIs, ECB's Lane/Schnabel and US ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
- Weekend French budget headlines are a gap risk at the open