EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 5 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend from 1.1268, now ranging · RSI 56 · price 1.12265
Lower high at 1.1244 after 1.1203 low; range 1.1215–1.1244.
London unwound the push to the 1.1268 day high, and NY extended the slide to a 1.1203 day low as low jobless claims and hawkish Fedspeak lifted USD. The rebound stalled at the 1.1244 NY high, the 61.8% retrace of the selloff. Early Asia saw a rejection at the 1.1231 Asia high, leaving price mid-range above the 1.1215 NY pm low with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.1215, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12306, 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1244 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1268 day high
Failure to hold the 1.1215 NY pm low exposes the 1.1203 day low and the 1.1200 handle
Repeated rejection at the 1.1231 Asia high keeps the 1.1215–1.1244 range intact
German IP 07:00 UTC and ECB Lane / Fed Williams 09:30 UTC precede US NFP at 13:30 UTC, the dominant catalyst for this read
Lower highs off 1.1268; 1.1203–1.1243 post-low range.
London sold off from the 1.1268 asian high to a 1.1203 day low in NY as the claims beat and hawkish Fedspeak lifted USD. The NY bounce met rejection at the 61.8% fib by the 1.1243 ny high and faded to a 1.1215 late ny low. Early Asia has popped back to the 1.1231 late high, just under the lower-highs line, with price back over the ema20 and RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1215, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1243, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1243 ny high breaks the lower-highs line from the asian high and opens 1.1268
Slip back under the ema20 and the 1.1215 late ny low puts the 1.1203 day low and the 1.1200 handle back in play
Rejection at the 1.1231 late high keeps the bounce inside the NY range
ECB Lane 09:30 UTC and Eurozone Retail Sales 10:00 UTC precede US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), the dominant risk to this read
Lower highs from 1.1268; compressing above 1.1203 session low.
Thursday slid from the 1.1268 Asia high to a 1.1203 session low as firmer US claims and hawkish Fed talk lifted USD. The NY bounce was rejected at 1.1244, the NY high and the 61.8% retrace of the drop, before price stalled into a lower high at 1.1226. Early Friday Asia is churning around 1.1219 above the late NY low at 1.1215, with ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1203, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1203 session low and the 1.1200 round number extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 1.1226 lower high and the trendline near 1.1234 shifts the read toward a range
Reclaiming the 1.1244 ny high reopens the 1.1268 asia high
ECB Lane 09:30 UTC and US NFP 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 43 · price 1.1217
Lower highs from 1.1268, compressing 1.1215–1.1226.
The 1.1268 Asia high gave way from London open. The slide reached a 1.1203 day low in early NY after the jobless claims beat and hawkish Fed remarks lifted USD. The NY rebound stalled at 1.1244 for a lower high, and price is now compressing below the EMAs, capped by the 1.1226 swing high, with a thin rollover low wick at 1.1208.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1203, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1203 day low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Close above the 1.1226 swing high, then 1.1244 ny high, breaks the lower-high chain
German IP at 07:00 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC can reset the session range
Lower-highs trendline from the asia high near 1.1235 currently caps rebounds
22:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower high in place · RSI 37 · price 1.12159
Lower high at 1.1244 below 1.1268 Asia high; NY rebound mostly retraced.
EUR/USD made the 1.1268 Asia high, then London open broke lower and the selloff ran to a 1.1203 day low after the US jobless claims beat and hawkish Fed remarks. The NY rebound was rejected at 1.1244, a lower high on the descending trendline. Price has since retraced about 70% of the NY rebound into the rollover and sits below the 1.1225 pivot, with ATR compressing to around 4 pips.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1225 pivot would neutralise the post-NY fade; above the 1.1244 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1208 late low (thin rollover print) exposes the 1.1203 day low
Asia session opening now; German IP (07:00 UTC) and Lane/Williams (09:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 1.1268 asia high back in focus
22:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY rebound · RSI 33 · price 1.12156
Lower-high sequence after NY bounce stalled at 61.8%; testing swing low in thin rollover trade.
The NY rebound from the 1.1203 day low was rejected at the 1.1244 NY high, near the 61.8% fib of the 1.1268–1.1203 drop. Price has since printed lower highs along the lower-high line and is now pressing the 1.1215 swing low in thin post-rollover trade, RSI(14) near 33, as USD holds gains from the 189K claims beat and hawkish Fed remarks.
Support: 1.12151, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12258, 1.12435
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1215 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1203 day low
Recovery above the 1.1226 swing high breaks the lower-high line and stalls the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 1.1244 NY high would void the 61.8% rejection
German IP 07:00 UTC and Williams / Lane 09:30 UTC Fri can set the early range
US NFP 13:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, NY rebound fading · RSI 38 · price 1.12181
NY range 1.1203–1.1244, lower highs since 1.1244 into the late low.
European hours unwound the Asian high at 1.1268 as USD firmed. The NY low at 1.1203 came after the US claims beat. The rebound was rejected at the NY high of 1.1244, and price has since faded through a lower high at 1.1226 to sit just above the late low of 1.1215, under both EMAs, in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.12151, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1215 late low puts the 1.1203 NY low back in play; a break there is a range break
Reclaim of the 1.1226 lower high and the 1.1220 pivot neutralises the post-1.1244 fade
Price holding the 61.8% of the NY rebound fib near 1.1215 keeps the NY range intact
German IP Fri 07:00 UTC opens the European session; US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into session close · RSI 35 · price 1.12184
Lower highs since NY high 1.1244, pressing late low.
EUR/USD has unwound the Asian-session push to 1.1268 as USD recovered on firm jobless claims and hawkish Fed talk, printing a day low at 1.1203 in NY. The NY bounce met rejection at the NY high 1.1244, near the 61.8% of the London drop fib, and has since carved lower highs (1.1231, then the 1.1226 lower high) into the 1.1215 late low, with ATR compressed near 5 pips.
Support: 1.12151, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.12435
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1215 late low exposes the 1.1203 day low
M15 close above the 1.1226 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the grind lower
Recovery through the 1.1244 NY high would void the post-London downtrend read
German IP at 07:00 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs off NY bounce · RSI 33 · price 1.1216
Lower-high sequence below 1.1244, holding just above late low.
London broke below the Asian range from the 1.1268 day high, and NY extended to a 1.1203 ny low after the strong US claims print before the bounce was rejected at the 1.1244 ny high. Since then a lower high at 1.1226 has capped price, which is drifting at the 1.1215 late low after the NY close and sits beyond the 61.8% fib of the NY bounce, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1215 late low and 1.1203 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.1226 lower high and then the 1.1244 ny high breaks the lower-high chain and the fib retracement read
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Lane/Williams 09:30 UTC and EZ Retail Sales 10:00 UTC come earlier
Lower highs from the 1.1244 NY high; price back at 61.8% of the NY bounce.
Asia ran to the 1.1268 asia high before London reversed it. NY set the 1.1203 day low after the jobless claims beat, and the rebound met rejection at the 1.1244 ny high. Price is now back at the 61.8% retracement of the NY bounce near 1.1217, below both EMAs, with lower highs capping at the 1.1226 lower high and RSI(14) mid-40s.
Support: 1.12151, 1.12102, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1215 late low exposes the 1.1210 swing low and the 1.1203 day low
M15 close above the 1.1226 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 1.1244 ny high sits above
German IP (Fri 07:00 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY bounce · RSI 34 · price 1.12182
Lower highs from 1.1244 NY high, holding above 1.1203 day low.
London open reversed from the 1.1268 Asia high. Firm US claims took price to a 1.1203 day low in early NY. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1244 NY high, and lower highs since have pulled price back to the 61.8% of that rally near 1.1218, with the 1.1215 late low just below as post-NY trade thins.
Support: 1.12151, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1215 late low exposes the 1.1203 day low and the 1.1200 round number
Recovery above the 1.1226 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline, with the 1.1244 NY high next
German IP (07:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) Friday, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1244 NY high, price below 61.8% of NY rally.
Asia high at 1.1268 gave way to a London selloff as USD rebounded on the 189K jobless claims and hawkish Fed remarks, bottoming at the 1.1203 day low before NY bounced to 1.1244. That NY high was rejected and a lower high formed at 1.1226. Late in the session, price is grinding at 1.1217, past the 61.8% of the NY rally and just above the 1.1214 swing low.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1214 swing low exposes the 1.1203 day low
Recovery above the 1.1226 lower high breaks the descending line off the NY high
Reclaim of the 1.1244 NY high would invalidate the post-NY fade read
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 1.1244 NY high, holding above 1.1218 swing low.
London sold off from the 1.1268 Asia high, and the drop bottomed at the 1.1203 claims low on the 13:30 UTC jobless-claims beat as USD rebounded. NY bounced to 1.1244, met rejection there and has faded on lower highs into late NY. Price is pinned just above the 1.1218 swing low, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the NY bounce, and sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1218 swing low breaks the late-NY base and exposes the 1.1203 claims low
M15 close above the 1.1226 lower high and the descending trendline ends the fade from the 1.1244 ny high
German IP 07:00 UTC and Fed's Williams 09:30 UTC Fri come first; US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening late NY · RSI 41 · price 1.12227
Lower high at 1.1244 inside a 1.1203–1.1244 NY range.
The Asia-session rally to the 1.1268 day high reversed at London open, and the slide reached a 1.1203 session low after the US claims beat and hawkish Fed remarks. The NY rebound stalled at the 1.1244 NY high, the 61.8% retracement of that drop, and late-NY price is drifting near 1.1222, just above the 1.1218 swing low and the 1.1214 higher low.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1214, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1214 higher low reopens the 1.1203 session low
Break above the 1.1244 NY high / 61.8% retracement negates the lower-high read and exposes the 1.1268 day high
German IP (Fri 07:00 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.1244 after day low 1.1203; drifting toward swing low.
London sold EURUSD off the 1.1268 Asia high to a 1.1203 day low as the USD rebound gathered pace on firm US jobless claims. The NY rebound stalled at the 1.1244 NY high near the 61.8% fib of the sell-off, and late-NY price has slipped back toward the 1.1218 swing low. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42 and ranges compressing.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1218 swing low exposes the 1.1203 day low
Recovery through the 1.1244 NY high invalidates the lower-high read and reopens the 1.1268 Asia high
German IP Fri 07:00 UTC and US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC are the next scheduled risks to this read
Lower highs from the Asia high, compressing 1.1218–1.1244 into late NY.
The Asia rally topped at 1.1268 (asia high), London sold it off, and NY printed a 1.1203 day low before bouncing into the 61.8% fib at 1.1244. That bounce was rejected, leaving a lower high. Price is now coiling between the 1.1218 swing low and that lower high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 48. The claims beat and hawkish Fed talk kept USD firm.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1244 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 1.1268 asia high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1218 swing low, a higher low above the 1.1203 day low, exposes that day low
German IP at 07:00 UTC around London open, then US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1268; price back inside the 1.1203–1.1244 NY range.
London broke the Asian range low after the 1.1268 Asia peak, and the slide extended to a 1.1203 session low after the US claims beat as USD clawed back. The NY bounce was rejected at the 1.1244 NY high, and late-NY bars have printed lower highs back to the 1.1220 pivot, sitting between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the bounce.
Support: 1.12141, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.12435
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1231 lower high breaks the late-NY lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1244 NY high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1214 higher low exposes the 1.1203 session low
German IP (07:00 UTC) and Williams/Lane (09:30 UTC) could shift the read before London; US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC is the main risk
Lower high at 1.1243 after London-NY sell-off; pivoting at 1.1222.
London opened by selling off from the 1.1268 Asian high, and the slide extended to a 1.1203 NY low on the jobless-claims beat and hawkish Fedspeak. The NY rebound met rejection at the 61.8% fib of that drop near 1.1243, and late-NY price is back at the 1.1222 pivot, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.12141, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12277, 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1214 higher low exposes the 1.1203 NY low
Close back above the 38.2% fib at 1.1228 would ease pressure toward the 1.1243 lower high
US NFP Friday 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the main risk to this structure
19:16 UTC
Down from Asia high, NY bounce stalling · RSI 46 · price 1.12251
Lower high at 1.1244 below 1.1268; higher lows off the 1.1203 NY low.
The Asian rally topped at the 1.1268 asia high. Through London and early NY, the strong claims print and hawkish Fed remarks drove a slide to the 1.1203 NY low. The NY rebound was rejected at 1.1244, the 61.8% fib and NY high, and late-NY price is back testing the 1.1223 NY pullback low, above a higher low at 1.1214.
Support: 1.12234, 1.12141, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1223 ny pullback low exposes the 1.1214 higher low and the NY rising lows line
Failure at the 1.1214 higher low reopens the 1.1203 ny low
Close above the 1.1244 ny high clears the 61.8% fib and puts the 1.1268 asia high back in view
Thin late-NY/Asia trade likely until German IP at 07:00 UTC; US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this read
Higher lows off the 1.1203 low, pullback after rejection at 1.1244.
The Asia run to the 1.1268 day high reversed through London and NY on firm US claims and hawkish Fed remarks, printing a 1.1203 session low before a higher-low rebound to the 1.1244 NY high. Late NY saw a rejection there, and price is retesting the 1.1223 swing low (50% of the bounce) with RSI(14) flat near 50 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.12234, 1.12141, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1223 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1214 higher low, then the 1.1203 session low
A reclaim of the 1.1244 NY high reopens the 1.1268 day high
German IP (07:00 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.1214 off 1.1203 NY low, lower high capped at 1.1244.
Sellers took over from the Asia high at 1.1268 at London open, and the slide extended into a 1.1203 NY low after firm US claims and productivity data revived the dollar. The NY rebound printed a higher low at 1.1214 but met rejection at the late-NY high of 1.1244. Price is now slipping toward the 50% fib of the NY rebound near 1.1223, with RSI(14) neutral around 53 after London close.
Support: 1.12232, 1.12141, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1214 higher low breaks the NY rebound structure and exposes the 1.1203 NY low
Close back above the 1.1244 late-NY high reopens the path to the 1.1268 Asia high
Hold of the 50% fib at 1.1223 keeps the higher low trendline intact into the Asia session
German IP Fri 07:00 UTC and US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Recovering off day low, stalling at 61.8% retrace · RSI 61 · price 1.12354
Higher lows from 1.1203, capped below 1.1244 NY high.
Asia ran to the 1.1268 day high before London and early NY sold off to the 1.1203 day low, as low claims and hawkish Fed talk revived the USD rebound. The NY afternoon has built a higher low at 1.1214, but the 1.1244 NY high met rejection at the 61.8% retrace. Price is holding the rising line near 1.1230 after London close.
Support: 1.1230, 1.1214, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising line near 1.1230 exposes the 1.1214 higher low and then the 1.1203 day low
Break of the 1.1244 NY high opens the path back toward the 1.1268 day high
Late NY into Asian range: thin conditions; Friday's German IP (07:00 GMT) and US NFP (13:30 UTC) could reset the read
Higher lows off 1.1203 day low, capped at 61.8% fib.
London open sold EUR/USD from the 1.1268 Asian high to a 1.1203 day low in early NY, as low claims and hawkish Fed remarks lifted USD. NY has since built higher lows through the 1.1214 NY pivot low and a 1.1230 swing low, but met rejection at 1.1244, the 61.8% fib of the day's drop. Late NY, RSI(14) is 59.
Support: 1.1230, 1.1214, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1244 61.8% fib opens the path back to the 1.1268 Asian high
Break below the 1.1230 swing low ends the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1214 NY pivot low, then the 1.1203 day low
German IP at 07:00 GMT and Williams at 09:30 UTC precede US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), which could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 65 · price 1.12402
NY higher lows off 1.1203, price testing the 61.8% retrace.
The Asia rally topped at the 1.1268 Asia high. London then sold off, and the slide reached a 1.1203 session low after the USD firmed on 189K claims. NY has since printed higher lows at 1.1214 and the 1.1230 swing low, lifting price into the 1.1241 NY high just under the 61.8% retrace (1.1243) and the 1.1249 swing high, with RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 1.1230, 1.12141, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12406, 1.12489, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1249 swing high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 1.1268 Asia high
Rejection at the 1.1241 NY high / 61.8% zone would mark the NY move as a retracement within the intraday downtrend
Loss of the 1.1230 swing low, then the 1.1214 higher low and rising support, refocuses the 1.1203 session low
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Intraday down, rebounding off NY low · RSI 63 · price 1.12397
Higher lows since 1.1203 NY low, now testing London breakdown zone.
London open sold off from the 1.1268 Asian high, and the slide extended to a 1.1203 NY low around the US claims data as the USD firmed. The rebound since has printed higher lows and cleared the 1.1237 broken high after London close. Price is now past the 50% retrace and pressing the 1.1249 prior shelf.
Support: 1.1237, 1.1230, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.12679
What it said to watch
Nagel speaking now (17:45 UTC): pushback on a December ECB hike could cut the rebound short
M15 close back below the 1.1230 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 1.1203 NY low
Acceptance above the 1.1249 prior shelf and 61.8% retrace opens the path to the 1.1268 Asian high
Fri NFP 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the next major swing risk for this structure
Lower high off 1.1268 Asian high; NY higher low at 1.1214, capped at 1.1238.
London open broke down from the 1.1268 Asian high, and the USD rebound on hawkish Fed talk and the 189K claims beat extended the slide to the 1.1203 NY low. The late-NY bounce printed a higher low at 1.1214 but met rejection twice at the 1.1238 NY high, at the 50% retracement, with price sitting on the EMA50.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1249, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1238 NY high and 50% fib opens the 1.1249 London base, near the 61.8% level
Failure to hold the 1.1214 higher low breaks rising support and puts the 1.1203 NY low back in play
Only a reclaim of the 1.1268 Asian high alters the lower-high structure
ECB's Nagel at 17:45 UTC: pushback on December hike odds could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
London downtrend, NY recovery pressing range top · RSI 59 · price 1.12337
Higher low at 1.1214 after 1.1203 session low; capped near 1.1237 NY high.
Asia rallied to a 1.1268 Asian high before London unwound it. The USD rebound on the 189K claims beat extended the drop to a 1.1203 session low. NY has since printed a higher low at 1.1214 and is retesting the 1.1237 NY high near the 50% fib of the London drop.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1243, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1237 NY high opens the 1.1243 breakdown area, then the 1.1268 Asian high
Loss of the 1.1214 higher low breaks the rising support line and exposes the 1.1203 session low
Repeated rejection at the 50% fib keeps the 1.1214–1.1237 NY range intact
ECB's Nagel at 17:45 UTC could shift this read; NFP Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
17:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY bounce in progress · RSI 56 · price 1.12292
London-NY lower highs to 1.1203; higher low at 1.1214 since.
London opened with a sell-off from the 1.1268 Asian high. The slide extended into NY on the USD rebound after strong claims and hawkish Fed remarks, bottoming at the 1.1203 session low at 14:30 UTC. Late NY has printed a higher low at 1.1214, and price is sitting on the 38.2% retracement near 1.1228, with the NY swing high at 1.1237 rejected once.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1243, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1237 NY swing high exposes the 61.8 fib at 1.1243, the London breakdown zone
Break below the 1.1214 higher low reopens the 1.1203 session low
Nagel speech at 17:45 UTC could shift the read during thin late-NY trade
NFP Friday 13:30 UTC; the 1.1268 Asian high is the reference if USD reverses
16:46 UTC
Downtrend from the 1.1268 Asian high, NY bounce stalling · RSI 49 · price 1.12224
Lower highs from 1.1268; NY higher lows off 1.1203, capped at 1.1237.
The Asian high at 1.1268 gave way at London open. London then broke the Asian range low near 1.1234, and NY extended to a 1.1203 session low after the jobless claims beat and hawkish Fed remarks lifted USD. The NY rebound has printed higher lows but met rejection at the 1.1237 NY high, just above the 50% fib of the 1.1268–1.1203 leg. Price is pivoting around 1.1220 above the 1.1214 NY swing low, with RSI neutral.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1249
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1214 NY swing low breaks the NY higher lows and exposes the 1.1203 session low
Failure to hold 1.1203 confirms a fresh lower low in the downtrend
Close above the 1.1237 NY high (50% fib) reopens the 1.1249 lower high from the London decline
Nagel speech at 17:45 UTC could shift this read; NFP on Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
16:31 UTC
Downtrend since London open, lower highs intact · RSI 42 · price 1.12163
Lower-high/lower-low sequence; NY bounce capped at 50% retrace.
London sold the Asian high at 1.1268. The decline extended to a 1.1203 NY low after the strong US claims print, as the dollar rebound took hold. The NY high at 1.1237 tagged the 50% retrace and was rejected back to 1.1216, keeping the London lower-high trendline intact with price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1237, 1.1268
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1229 swing high and the 1.1237 NY high breaks the lower-high trendline
Loss of the 1.1210 swing low exposes the 1.1203 NY low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Asian high at 1.1268 is the upper bound of the day's range
Nagel speech at 17:45 UTC could shift this read into the post-London close
Lower highs since London open; sweep of prior-day low reclaimed.
London opened with a sharp break lower from the Asia-session day high at 1.1268. The selling ran into NY hours after strong US claims, reaching a 1.1203 session low that briefly swept the prior-day low at 1.1213 before reclaiming it. The rebound is stalling at the 38.2% fib near 1.1228, after a 1.1237 ny wick rejection just under the 50% level, with price above EMA20 but still below EMA50.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1250, 1.1268
What it said to watch
Lagarde is speaking now (16:00 UTC), with Nagel at 17:45 UTC; either could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.1237 ny wick and the 50% fib opens the path to the 1.1250 round number, with the 1.1268 day high above
Failure to hold the 1.1216 london base exposes the 1.1203 session low
16:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off NY low · RSI 52 · price 1.12249
Lower highs from Asia peak; NY open swept prior low and reversed.
Lower highs have run from the 1.1268 day high. The German orders miss at London open and low US claims extended the slide, while the 1.1249 lower high capped through the morning. The NY open swept the prior low at 1.1213 to a 1.1203 session low, then reversed back through the falling trendline. Price now sits near 1.1225, at the 50% fib of the 09:00–14:30 UTC drop, with the 1.1229 bounce high stalling just under the 61.8% and a 1.1210 higher low below as Lagarde speaks.
Support: 1.12128, 1.12099, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12291, 1.12489, 1.12679
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech starting now (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; Nagel follows at 17:45 UTC
M15 close above the 1.1229 bounce high and 61.8% fib opens the path to the 1.1249 lower high
Failure to hold the 1.1210 higher low puts the 1.1203 session low and the swept prior low back in focus
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major USD-side risk for the range
15:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY bounce testing it · RSI 54 · price 1.12276
Lower highs from 1.1268 Asia high; prior-day low swept, Asian low reclaimed.
The 1.1268 Asia high faded from London open, and the slide broke the Asian low. In NY it swept the prior-day low at 1.1213 to a 1.1203 session low after the strong US claims print. The NY bounce has reclaimed the Asian low at 1.1224 and broken the falling trendline, stalling at the bounce high of 1.1229 at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 1.12244, 1.12128, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12291, 1.12354, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:00 UTC, 15 minutes out, could materially shift this read; Nagel follows at 17:45 UTC
M15 close above the 1.1229 bounce high and the 50% fib at 1.1235 would extend the recovery toward the 1.1250 round number
Failure back below the 1.1224 Asian low reopens the 1.1213 prior low and the 1.1203 session low
15:31 UTC
Downtrend since London open, bouncing off session low · RSI 39 · price 1.12188
Lower highs and lower lows below the asian low, with a sweep of the prior-day low.
Asia ran to the 1.1268 asian high on post-election USD weakness. London and NY then unwound the move in a lower-high/lower-low sequence through the 1.1224 asian low as the dollar recovered on firm claims data. NY swept the 1.1213 prior low to a 1.1203 session low and has bounced to the 23.6% retrace of the drop, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1235, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1224 asian low breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1235 lower high next above
Failure to hold the 1.1213 prior low and the 1.1203 session low resumes the downtrend leg
ECB's Lane at 15:40 UTC and Lagarde at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.1210
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1268; prior-day low lost.
The Asia rally to 1.1268 unwound from London open as USD recovered on firm claims and productivity data, carving lower highs along a falling trendline. Early NY swept below yesterday's 1.1213 low to a 1.1203 session low, and the bounce to the 1.1224 spike high was rejected. Price now sits near 1.1210, under both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 38 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1249
What it said to watch
Lane at 15:40 UTC and Lagarde at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the next few bars
M15 close below the 1.1203 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1224 spike high and the falling trendline challenges the downtrend read; the next lower high is 1.1249 near the fib 61.8%
US NFP Friday 13:30 UTC is the next major risk for this structure
Lower highs from the Asian high; yesterday's 1.1213 low broken.
The pair has printed lower highs since the 1.1268 Asian high. The London high of 1.1249 and the 1.1226 lower high capped bounces as USD recovered, and the firm 13:30 UTC claims and productivity data extended the slide. NY pushed through yesterday's 1.1213 prior low to a 1.1203 session low. That bar's long lower wick shows demand at the low, but price is still holding below the old low.
Support: 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1213, 1.1226, 1.12488
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1213 prior low turns the break into a false break.
Failure to hold the 1.1203 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number.
A break of the falling trendline and the 1.1226 lower high ends the lower-high sequence.
ECB Lane at 15:40 UTC and Lagarde at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; trading below Asian range.
London opened with a 24-pip drop off the 1.1266 Asian-range top, and the lower-high chain since then has taken EUR/USD below the 1.1224 Asian low and through yesterday's NY low to a 1.1210 session low as the USD recovered on firm US claims data. RSI(14) sits near 35, not oversold. Price is under both EMAs, with the descending trendline from the 1.1249 London high capping near 1.1217–1.1226.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1237, 1.1249
What it said to watch
Lane (15:40 UTC) and Lagarde (16:00 UTC) are due within the next 75 minutes and could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.1210 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 round number
A close above the 1.1226 lower high breaks the descending trendline; reclaiming the 1.1237 london low and the 38.2% fib near 1.1232 would end the lower-high chain
1.1249 london high is the last lower high below the 1.1268 Asian peak
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 30 · price 1.12135
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 1.1268, now testing prior-day low.
EURUSD has stepped lower from the 1.1268 Asian high since London open. It broke the 1.1224 Asian low late morning as USD recovered on the 189K claims beat and the German factory-orders miss. Early NY is probing the 1.1212 prior low with RSI(14) near 30, while the 1.1226 lower high caps under the descending trendline.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1212 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1200 round number
Close above the 1.1226 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the sequence, with the 1.1235 swing high next
1.1234–1.1240 (38.2–50% of the London selloff) overlaps the 1.1235 swing high
ECB Lane 15:40 UTC and Lagarde 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1268 Asian high; Asian range lost in London.
London broke below the Asian range after the soft German factory orders. The pair has ground lower in a lower-high sequence from 1.1268 as USD firmed on 189K claims. In the first hour of NY, price swept the 1.1213 prior low by a pip and bounced, but it is still capped under the descending trendline and the 1.1226 lower high, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.12124, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.12336, 1.12489
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1226 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain; the fib 38.2 at 1.1234 is next.
Acceptance below the 1.1212 prior low turns the sweep into a fresh leg lower, with the 1.1200 round number next.
The london high at 1.1249 caps the session; reclaiming it would erase the London breakdown.
ECB Lane at 15:40 UTC and Lagarde at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read within the next few hours.
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 30 · price 1.12156
Asian range broken lower at London open; LH/LL chain into NY open, testing prior-day low.
London open broke the 1.1258–1.1268 Asian range lower. Price has since stepped down in lower highs from the 1.1249 London range top, with the 13:30 UTC NY open dip to the 1.1212 session low matching yesterday's NY low as US claims and productivity beats extended the USD rebound. RSI(14) is near 30 and ATR(14) is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.12124, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.12489
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1226 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Acceptance below the 1.1212 session low opens the 1.1200 round number
A recovery into the 1.1249 London range top would neutralise the London-session breakdown
ECB's Lane (15:40 UTC) and Lagarde (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open, tight base at 1.1216-1.1226.
EUR/USD has faded from the 1.1268 Asian high in a falling-highs chain since London open, driven by soft German Factory Orders and a USD rebound on strong US data. Since late London, price has been compressing in a 1.1216-1.1226 band, with the session low tested four times just above yesterday's 1.1213 prior low. RSI(14) is near 34 and ATR is about 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.12162, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1235, 1.12489
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1213 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1180
A close above the 1.1226 range top, then the 1.1235 lower high, breaks the falling-highs sequence and puts the 1.1249 london top back in view
US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (13:50 UTC) are hitting the current bar
Lane at 15:40 UTC and Lagarde at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the 38.2% retrace of the fade sits at 1.1236
13:31 UTC
Downtrend since London open, momentum flattening · RSI 36 · price 1.12201
Lower highs from the 1.1268 day high; Asian range low broken, now basing near 1.1216.
London fully unwound the Asian rally to the 1.1268 day high and broke the Asian range low near 1.1224 as USD recovered. Price is now compressing above the 1.1216 session low, just over yesterday's 1.1213 prior low, with a lower high capping at 1.1226 into the first hour of NY and RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1236, 1.1249
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1226 lower high and the 38.2% fib at 1.1236 breaks the London lower-highs trendline read
London high at 1.1249 marks the upper bound of the breakdown
US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (13:50 UTC) are near-term catalysts; Lagarde at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London lower-high chain off 1.1268; basing above 1.1216 session low into NY open.
The Asian rally to the 1.1268 day high fully unwound through London as the dollar recovered. A lower-high sequence at 1.1249 and 1.1235 pushed price back below the Asian range base. Price is now compressing just above the 1.1216 session low and yesterday's 1.1213 prior low, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1249, 1.1268
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1213 prior low extends the lower-low sequence beyond yesterday's NY low.
A recovery above the 1.1235 swing high breaks the London lower-high chain. The 1.1249 lower high and the 38.2–50% day high fib zone (1.1236–1.1242) sit just above.
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC land in the first hour of NY.
ECB's Lagarde at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read. A hawkish tilt brings the 1.1268 day high back into focus.
Lower highs since London open, basing at 1.1216-1.1218.
London open reversed the Asia rally from 1.1268 and broke below the Asian low at 1.1225. The lower highs held into the NY open as USD recovered on firm US data. Price is pressing the 1.1216 day low, just above yesterday's prior low at 1.1213, with RSI(14) near 25.
Support: 1.12162, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.12489
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1213 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1205 range floor
Reclaim of the 1.1225 asian low and the lower-highs line puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 1.1249 london high invalidates the intraday downtrend
Lagarde at 16:00 UTC is a second event risk later in the NY session
12:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open, momentum stretched · RSI 28 · price 1.12204
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range low, late London into NY open.
London unwound the Asian rally to 1.1268 and broke the Asian range low. The dollar rebound on strong US data has left lower highs at the 1.1249 swing high, 1.1235 (near the fib 38.2) and 1.1226. Price is holding just above the 1.1216 session low, with yesterday's 1.1213 prior low beneath, and RSI(14) at 27 is soft but not extreme.
Support: 1.12162, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.12255, 1.1235, 1.12489
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1226 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 1.1235 fib 38.2 next
Failure to hold the 1.1216 session low exposes the 1.1213 prior low and the 1.1205 range floor
A recovery through the 1.1249 swing high negates the London downtrend read
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, Hammack at 13:50 UTC and Lagarde at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, Asian range low broken.
London reversed the Asia-session rally to the 1.1268 asia high. Price has since stepped down in a lower-high chain through the Asian range low near 1.1224 to a 1.1216 london low as the USD rebound on firm US data extends. Price now sits just above Wednesday's NY prior low at 1.1213, with RSI(14) at 27, stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1213, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1249, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1235 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.1249 lower high, near the 61.8% of the asia high-london low leg, is the next cap
Failure to hold the 1.1213 prior low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 1.1205 range floor
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could materially shift this read, with Lagarde due at 16:00 UTC
12:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 29 · price 1.12214
Asian rally fully reversed; London range broken lower, pressing prior NY low.
London unwound the Asian rally. The 1.1268 Asian high gave way at the open, and the 1.1237–1.1249 London range broke at 09:30 UTC as the dollar pared its post-election losses. A lower-high chain since then has carried price to a 1.1216 session low, just above the prior NY low at 1.1213, with RSI(14) near 29 into Lagarde.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1249, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 prior NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 round number
Recovery through the 1.1235 lower high breaks the London downswing; the 1.1249 london high (61.8% of the asian high to session low drop) is the next cap
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 25 · price 1.12199
Asian rally fully faded, Asian low broken, testing prior-day NY low.
London has unwound the whole Asian rally to 1.1268 as USD rebounds. Price broke the 1.1237–1.1249 range and the Asian low at 1.1224, leaving a lower-high chain at 1.1266, the 1.1249 swing high and 1.1235. EURUSD now sits just above yesterday's NY low at 1.1213 with RSI(14) near 25, as Lagarde is due at 12:00 UTC.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1235, 1.1249
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1235 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; reclaiming the 1.1224 Asian low is the first sign of that
Failure to hold the 1.1213 NY low opens the 1.1200 round number
Recovery through the 1.1249 swing high invalidates the London downtrend read
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 29 · price 1.12224
Asian rally fully unwound; price at session low, testing Asian range floor.
Rejection at the Asian high of 1.1268 at London open started a steady lower-high sequence (london high 1.1249, then the 1.1235 lower high) as the USD rebound erased the oil-driven gain. Price now sits on the 1.1222 session low at the base of the Asian range, RSI(14) near 29 and below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1249, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 session low exposes yday low at 1.1213, then the 1.1205 range low
Close back above the 1.1235 lower high breaks the London trendline and stalls the downtrend read
Recovery into 1.1249 london high would sit near the 61.8% fib of the Asian-high drop
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC, BoE at 12:00 GMT and US claims at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend through London, testing Asian low · RSI 29 · price 1.12266
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; price back at the Asian range floor.
London sold off from the 1.1268 Asian high, with lower highs at the 1.1249 London high and the 1.1235 minor high, and returned to the 1.1224 Asian low. RSI(14) sits near 29. The pullback lines up with the modest USD bounce in European trade and soft euro-area output data. Price sits at the range floor with Lagarde due at 12:00 UTC.
Support: 1.12242, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.12489, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 Asian low exposes the 1.1213 prior low, yesterday's NY double-bottom area
Recovery above the 1.1235 minor high breaks the London lower-high sequence along the trendline
Reclaiming the 1.1249 London high puts the 1.1268 Asian high back in play
Lagarde and the BoE decision at 12:00 UTC, then US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend through London · RSI 31 · price 1.12262
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian rally fully retraced.
London opened with a rejection from the 1.1268 Asian high, and EUR slid after the German factory orders and French output misses. Price has since unwound the whole Asian rally on a descending trendline of lower highs (1.1266, 1.1249 lower high, 1.1235 swing high). It now sits on the 1.1224 Asian low ahead of Lagarde, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet stretched.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1249, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1235 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1224 Asian low exposes yesterday's 1.1213 prior low
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery back above the 1.1249 lower high would put the 1.1268 Asian high back in play
11:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, London leg lower · RSI 31 · price 1.12281
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, price just above the Asian low.
London has erased the Asian advance to the 1.1268 asian high. The slide began at the 07:00 UTC open as German factory orders and French output missed, trimming the dollar-driven gains. The descending trendline produced a lower high at 1.1249 (swing high) and another at 1.1235, which was rejected. Price now sits just above the 1.1224 asian low with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.12244, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.12489, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1213 prior low
M15 close above the 1.1235 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the London sequence; the 1.1249 swing high comes next
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read; dovish hedging would add pressure while hike validation targets the 1.1268 asian high
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Hammack at 13:50 add NY-session USD risk
Asian advance fully reversed; LH/LL chain since London open.
Asia peaked at the 1.1268 asian high, a rejection just shy of Wednesday's 1.1273 prior high. London then reversed the whole Asian advance in lower highs and lower lows to a 1.1229 session low, as a modest USD bounce and soft euro-area data (French output and German orders misses) trimmed EUR gains. RSI(14) near 31 is weak but not oversold, and the 1.1249 lower high lines up with the 50% fib of the drop.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1249, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC (~75 min) and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1249 lower high breaks the London LH/LL sequence and the falling trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1229 session low exposes Wednesday's 1.1213 prior low
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 28 · price 1.12312
Asian rally fully retraced; lower highs and lower lows into a 1.1229 session low.
The Asian rally was rejected at the 1.1268 Asia high, and the London drop started on soft euro data at 07:00 UTC (German factory orders, French output). Lower highs at 1.1249 have since pushed price back to the base of the Asian range at a 1.1229 session low. RSI(14) is near 28 and ATR(14) about 7 pips, with yesterday's 1.1213 prior low the next reference below.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1249, 1.1268
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1249 lower high breaks the lower-high chain of the London drop
Failure to hold the 1.1229 session low exposes the 1.1213 prior low
Lagarde and the BoE at 12:00 UTC, then US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
A recovery toward the 1.1268 Asia high would put price back inside the Asian range top
Lower highs from Asian high, Asian range broken lower.
The Asia session rally capped at the 1.1268 Asian high, and soft German, French and Italian data hit EUR at the London open. Price chopped under a 1.1249 London top, then broke the 1.1234 Asian low to a 1.1229 session low. RSI(14) near 29 is oversold, and price sits just above yesterday's 1.1213 NY lows.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1249, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1234 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1229 session low exposes the 1.1213 NY lows
Lower-high trendline and the 50% fib near the 1.1249 London top cap rebounds; a close above shifts the read back to range
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open, RSI near oversold · RSI 29 · price 1.12333
Lower highs at 1.1266 and 1.1249; London range 1.1237–1.1249 broken lower, price testing the Asian low.
London open reversed the Asian rally from the 1.1268 asian high on soft German factory orders. Price has slipped below the 1.1237 london low and now sits on the asian low and the 78.6% retrace of the overnight move. The trendline through the 1.1266 and 1.1249 lower highs is still capping, and RSI(14) is near 29.
Support: 1.12337, 1.12244, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.12365, 1.12489, 1.12679
What it said to watch
Eurozone PPI at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read; BoE and US jobless claims follow
An M15 close back above the 1.1237 london low negates the range break
A move through the lower-highs trendline near the 1.1249 lower high breaks the London downtrend structure
Failure to hold the 1.1234 asian low exposes the 1.1224 rally base, then the 1.1213 prior low
09:46 UTC
Intraday down since London open, stalling · RSI 34 · price 1.12397
Lower highs capping a tight 1.1236–1.1249 consolidation.
London open faded the Asian rally after a rejection just under the 1.1268 Asian high. The 07:00 UTC drop on soft German factory orders retraced roughly 80% of the Asian rally fib, and price is now consolidating between the 1.1236 London low and a 1.1249 range top under London lower highs, sitting just above the 1.1234 Asian low with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.1236, 1.1234, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1249, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1249 range top breaks the London lower highs and reopens 1.1268 Asian high / 1.1273 prior high
Failure below the 1.1236 London low and 1.1234 Asian low erases the Asian rally fib and exposes the 1.1213 prior low
Eurozone PPI at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 12:00 UTC are the next catalysts for a break of the range
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC (first hour of NY) could shift the USD leg of the read
London selloff from Asian high, tight 1.1237–1.1249 consolidation.
The Asia-session rally stalled at the 1.1268 asian high, just short of yesterday's 1.1273 prior high. London open then reversed it on misses in German factory orders and French IP, sending price to a 1.1237 london low. Mid-London, price is compressing between that low and the 1.1249 range top, sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the Asian rally, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.12365, 1.12244, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.12679, 1.12728
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1237 london low exposes the 1.1224 asian low, then the 1.1213 prior low.
An M15 close back above the 1.1249 range top reopens the 1.1268 asian high and the 1.1273 prior high.
Eurozone PPI at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read; US jobless claims follow at 13:30 UTC.
09:16 UTC
Intraday down-leg from Asia high, now basing · RSI 37 · price 1.12444
Double top break, tight early-London range above the london low.
The Asia rally stalled in a double top at 1.1266-1.1268. Misses in German factory orders and France IP at 07:00 UTC broke the 1.1258 neckline and dropped price to 1.1237. Early London is compressing between that london low and a 1.1249 range top, near the 61.8% of the asia rally fib, with RSI(14) around 37 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1237, 1.1224
Resistance: 1.1249, 1.1267, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1237 london low exposes the 1.1224 asia low
Recovery above the 1.1249 range top puts the 1.1258 neckline and 1.1267 double top back in play; a close above the 1.1273 prior high voids the reversal read
Eurozone PPI at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk
09:01 UTC
Short-term downtrend inside a broader 24h range · RSI 34 · price 1.12417
London broke below the Asian consolidation; lower highs since, basing above the 1.1237 session low.
London open reversed the Asian rally from the 1.1268 Asian high after misses in German factory orders and French industrial output. The breakdown bar from 1.1257 took price to a 1.1237 session low. Price is now coiling at the 61.8% of the Asian rally fib, capped by a lower high at 1.1249, with the rally base at 1.1224 and the prior low at 1.1213 below.
Support: 1.12365, 1.12244, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.12488, 1.12575, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1237 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1224 rally base and the 1.1213 prior low
Recovery above the 1.1258 breakdown level reopens the 1.1268 Asian high
Eurozone PPI at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC are a NY-session risk to the range
Broke below the 1.1260 Asia shelf; lower high capped at 38.2% retrace.
Misses in German factory orders and French industrial output knocked EUR/USD off the 1.1260 Asia shelf, and the first hour of London tagged a session low at 1.12365. Price is now compressing in a tight 1.1237–1.1249 band, with the bounce capped at the fib 38.2 of the Asia high-to-low move and RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.12365, 1.1232, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.12488, 1.1260, 1.12679
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.1249 (fib 38.2) opens a retest of the 1.1260 asia shelf; failure there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Break of the 1.12365 session low exposes the 1.1232 asia low, then yesterday's prior low at 1.12128
Eurozone PPI at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC is the NY-session risk point
Recovery above the 1.12679 asia high would negate the range break
08:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, Asian gains being unwound · RSI 31 · price 1.12426
London broke below the Asia shelf; lower high, lower low since 07:00 UTC.
London open broke the 1.1258 asia shelf and dropped about 30 pips to a 1.1237 london low after German factory orders and French industrial output both missed. Price is now holding between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the Asian rally, with RSI(14) near 31. Yesterday's 1.1273 prior high from the NY session still caps.
Support: 1.12365, 1.12244, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.1258, 1.12679, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1258 asia shelf negates the London range break
Failure to hold the 1.1237 london low exposes the 1.1224 asian low, then the 1.1213 prior low
Recovery through the 1.1268 asian high reopens the 1.1273 prior high
Eurozone PPI at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read; US jobless claims follow at 13:30 UTC
08:16 UTC
Down from London open, momentum stretched · RSI 29 · price 1.12392
Lower high under prior high, testing Asian range floor.
The Asia rally stalled at the 1.1268 asian high, a lower high under the 1.1273 prior high. The London open reversed it by about 25 pips after German factory orders and French output missed. Price is pressing the 1.1234 asian low, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 1.1234, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1246, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1234 asian low and the 61.8% fib at 1.1235 exposes the 1.1213 day low, which was tested twice in NY hours.
A reclaim of the 1.1246 bounce high would ease downside pressure. The 1.1268-1.1273 zone stays the cap.
Eurozone PPI at 10:00 UTC, Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
London-open breakdown from 1.1257-1.1266 Asian consolidation; lower low at 1.1241, mid Asian range.
After a rejection at the 1.1268 asian high, just under the 1.1273 prior high, misses in German factory orders and French output at London open knocked EUR/USD about 25 pips out of its overnight consolidation. Price is sitting on the 1.1241 london low, the 61.8% fib of the Asian rally, with RSI(14) near 36 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1241, 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1241 london low and 61.8% fib opens the 1.1224 asian low, then the 1.1213 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.1250 round number neutralises the London-open breakdown; the 1.1268 asian high caps above
ECB Schnabel 08:05 UTC and Eurozone PPI 10:00 UTC, then Lagarde 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Pullback within Asia gains, momentum turning lower · RSI 31 · price 1.12446
Asian shelf at 1.1256-1.1266 broken; retracing the overnight rally.
The Asian session rally from the 1.1224 asia low stalled at the 1.1268 asia high. The 1.1256-1.1266 shelf gave way ahead of London open after the German factory orders miss, with a 15-pip bar into the 1.1240s. Price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asia rally, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.1241, 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1256, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
Holding the 61.8% fib at 1.1241 keeps this a retracement of the Asia rally; losing it exposes the 1.1224 asia low
A recovery back above the 1.1256 shelf break negates the range break and brings the 1.1268 asia high and 1.1273 prior high back into view
A break below 1.1224 leaves the 1.1213 prior low from yesterday's NY session as the next reference
Schnabel (08:05 UTC), Eurozone PPI (10:00 UTC) and Lagarde (12:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asia rebound into tight 10-pip coil under the prior-day high.
Asia extended the USD-led rebound from 1.1224 to the 1.1268 asian high, and price is now coiling in a 1.1258–1.1268 range into the London open with RSI(14) near 60. The range low sits on the 23.6% fib of the Asia rally. The prior high at 1.1273 and the month-long 1.1280 range top cap the move above.
Support: 1.12575, 1.12471
Resistance: 1.12679, 1.12728, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1268 asian high exposes the 1.1273 prior high and the 1.1280 range top
Break of the 1.1258 range low opens the 1.1247 swing low near the 38.2% Asia rally fib
Schnabel (08:05 UTC) and Eurozone PPI (10:00 UTC) arrive first; Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Uptrend from Asia low, stalling below highs · RSI 54 · price 1.12608
Tight consolidation under the Asian high after a HH/HL Asia leg.
Broad USD weakness after the midterm sweep drove a 44-pip Asia leg from 1.1224 to the 1.1268 Asian high, stopping short of yesterday's 1.1273 prior high. Price has compressed in a 1.1258–1.1266 band into London open, holding the 23.6% fib of the Asian rally fib and EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 1.12575, 1.12513
Resistance: 1.12679, 1.12728, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1258 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.1251
Acceptance above the 1.1268 Asian high brings the 1.1273 prior high and the 1.1280 range top into play
ECB's Cipollone (07:30) and Schnabel (08:05 GMT) in early London. Lagarde at 12:00 GMT is the larger risk to this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC could shift the USD leg behind the Asia rally
Asian HH/HL chain, tight consolidation under the Asian high.
Asia session lifted about 40 pips off the 1.1228 rollover area on continued post-midterm USD weakness, setting a 1.1268 Asian high before compressing into a 1.1258–1.1268 band ahead of London open. Price sits just under yesterday's 1.1273 prior high, the level that capped NY before a 60-pip slide. RSI(14) is in the high 60s and ATR(14) is about 4 pips, so the range is narrowing.
Support: 1.1258, 1.1247
Resistance: 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1273 prior high clears yesterday's range top and the 4-week high zone
Failure to hold the 1.1258 swing low breaks the Asian rising line and exposes the 1.1247 higher low near the 38.2% retrace
German Factory Orders at 07:00 GMT and ECB's Cipollone/Schnabel at the London open could break the compression
Lagarde at 12:00 GMT and US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC carry the main event risk for this session
06:16 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, stalling below prior high · RSI 62 · price 1.12607
Higher lows from the 1.1224 rollover low, now a tight band at 1.1258-1.1268.
Asia ran from the 1.1224 rollover low to a 1.1268 Asian high, recovering most of Wednesday's NY drop as USD selling on the Democratic sweep extended. Since 04:00 UTC price has compressed in a 10-pip band above the 1.1258 pullback low. That band sits just under the 1.1273 prior high, with ATR(14) near 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12575, 1.12471
Resistance: 1.12679, 1.12728, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1273 prior high clears Wednesday's peak and puts the 1.1280 range top in play
A break of the 1.1258 pullback low and the rising Asia trendline exposes the 1.1247 asia shelf, which lines up with the 50% fib of the Asian leg
German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC and Schnabel 08:05 UTC could set the London tone; Lagarde 12:00 UTC is the main risk to the range-top test
06:01 UTC
Asia uptrend, pausing below session high · RSI 61 · price 1.12606
HH/HL chain since rollover low; tight pullback holding fib 23.6.
Asia session carried EURUSD about 43 pips from the 1.1224 rollover low to a 1.1268 session high as USD selling extended on the post-election DXY slide. Price is now coiling just under that high, and the dip held the fib 23.6 at 1.1258 along the rising trendline. Yesterday's 1.1273 prior high and the 1.1280 range top sit directly overhead into London open.
Support: 1.12575, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.12679, 1.12728, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1273 prior high opens the 1.1280 range top
Loss of the fib 23.6 and rising trendline puts the 1.1250 asia base in play
Schnabel 08:05 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC is the USD-leg risk for the NY session
05:46 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, stalling below prior high · RSI 66 · price 1.12614
Asian HH/HL chain from 1.1224; tight 1.1260–1.1268 pause under yesterday's 1.1273 NY high.
With the USD still heavy after the midterm sweep, EUR/USD carried a higher-low chain through Asia from 1.1224 to an asian high at 1.1268. That leaves it just under yesterday's 1.1273 prior high, where NY rejected it after the US data and sent it to 1.1213. Late Asia, ahead of London open, price is holding the 1.1260 swing low and the rising lows line, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.1260, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.1268, 1.1273, 1.1280
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1273 prior high clears yesterday's NY rejection and puts the 1.1280 range top in play
A break of the 1.1260 swing low takes out the rising lows line; the 1.1250 asian shelf (near the 50% of the Asian leg) is next
German Factory Orders at 07:00 UTC and Schnabel at 08:05 UTC could shift this read into London open; Lagarde at 12:00 UTC is the high-impact risk
05:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 60 · price 1.12616
HH/HL chain from 1.1224 Asian low, shallow pullback off 1.1268.
Asia session added about 43 pips from the 1.1224 Asian low to a 1.1268 Asian high. That retraced nearly all of NY's slide from the 1.1273 prior high as USD stays heavy after the midterm sweep. Price is now holding 1.1260–1.1263 in late Asia above the 1.1258 pullback low, with RSI(14) cooled to around 60 and the 1.1247 higher low intact.
Support: 1.12581, 1.12471, 1.12244
Resistance: 1.12679, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1273 prior high clears yesterday's NY high and tests the 1.1270–1.1280 range top
Failure to hold the 1.1258 pullback low exposes the 1.1247 higher low near the 50% asian rally fib
Break below the 1.1224 asian low negates the Asian HH/HL sequence
German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC), Schnabel (08:05 UTC) and Lagarde (12:00 UTC) could materially shift this read around London open
The Asia session retraced the whole of the NY selloff, climbing from the 1.1224 asian low to a 1.1268 asian high as post-midterm USD weakness extended. Price is now consolidating just below yesterday's 1.1273 prior high ahead of London open. RSI(14) is cooling to about 64, and the pullback low at 1.1260 is holding on the asia trendline.
Support: 1.12601, 1.1252, 1.12244
Resistance: 1.12679, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1273 prior high opens the 1.1280 range top
Failure to hold the 1.1260 pullback low and the asia trendline exposes the 1.1252 asian shelf
German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC, Schnabel 08:05 and Lagarde 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A slide back toward the 1.1224 asian low would unwind the Asia rally; the 50% fib sits near 1.1246
05:01 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, RSI hot near 71 · RSI 71 · price 1.12617
Higher-high/higher-low chain off the 1.1224 Asia low, stalling under the prior high.
Late Asia session: EURUSD has climbed about 43 pips from the 1.1224 asia low on continued post-midterm USD selling. It set an asia high at 1.1268, just under Wednesday's 1.1273 prior high, and RSI(14) sits around 71. Price is easing back toward the 1.1259 swing low, while the 1.1250 asia base lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Asia leg.
Support: 1.12588, 1.12497, 1.12244
Resistance: 1.12679, 1.12728, 1.1275
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1273 prior high and the 1.1275 neckline extends the Asia higher-high sequence
A break of the 1.1259 swing low opens a retest of the 1.1250 asia base (38.2% of the Asia leg fib)
Failure to hold the 1.1250 asia base breaks the higher-low chain and exposes 1.1246, then the 1.1224 asia low
German Factory Orders at 07:00 UTC and the London open could set the session range against the asia high
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, stalling below prior high · RSI 69 · price 1.12631
Higher-low chain off 1.1224 rollover low, price on rising trendline.
Late Asia session: a steady grind from the 1.1224 asia low printed a 1.1268 asia high, 5 pips shy of Wednesday's 1.1273 prior high, extending the post-midterm USD softness. Higher lows remain intact with price now sitting on the rising trendline and RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s. London open has yet to test the range.
Support: 1.12588, 1.12471, 1.12244
Resistance: 1.12679, 1.12728, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and 1.1259 micro low breaks the Asia higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.1247 swing low, near the 38.2% asia rally fib, exposes the 61.8% level around 1.1241
Close above the 1.1273 prior high puts the 1.1275 neckline in play
German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched near prior high · RSI 79 · price 1.12663
Asia HH/HL chain from 1.1224 rollover low, pressing below Wednesday's 1.1273 high.
Broad USD weakness after the midterm sweep has carried EURUSD from the 1.1224 rollover low to a 1.1268 Asia session high. The rally has steadily made higher highs and higher lows and has now reclaimed most of Wednesday's NY-session drop from the 1.1273 prior high. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched heading into London open, with the prior high and the 1.1275 neckline overhead and the 1.1258 flip level the first shelf below.
Support: 1.12585, 1.12497, 1.12462
Resistance: 1.12679, 1.12728, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1273 prior high and 1.1275 neckline extends the Asia uptrend; rejection there leaves a lower high versus Wednesday
Failure to hold the 1.1258 flip level and the 1.1250 swing low exposes the fib 50% of the Asia rally at 1.1246
German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC) and Schnabel (08:05 UTC) around London open could shift this read; Lagarde at 12:00 UTC is the higher-impact risk
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into resistance · RSI 84 · price 1.12655
Higher-low chain through Asia, pressing prior-day highs.
Asia has climbed about 41 pips off the 1.1224 low in a clean higher-low chain along the Asia trendline. The move has retraced ~88% of Wednesday's NY selloff fib as post-midterm USD softness carries over. Late in the Asian session, price is pressing Wednesday's London high near 1.1265, just under the 1.1273 prior high, with RSI(14) near 84 stretched ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1259, 1.1250, 1.1238
Resistance: 1.1273, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1273 prior high clears Wednesday's peak and the 1.1275 neckline cited in the digest; 1.1300 round number is the next marker
Loss of the Asia trendline (~1.1259) and the 1.1250 asia shelf would print the first lower-low of the session, exposing the 1.1238 swing low
Failure at the top of the NY selloff fib would leave a stall below the prior high
German Factory Orders at 07:00 UTC lands into London open; Lagarde (12:00/16:00 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia, stalling under the Asian high.
The Asia rally has retraced the whole drop to the 1.1213 prior low, which followed the upbeat ADP/ISM data, as the post-midterm USD softness reasserted. Higher lows run from the 1.1224 Asian low to 1.1250, and price is now flat just under the 1.1260 Asian high late in the Asia session. RSI(14) is near 76 and ATR is compressing to about 5 pips. The 1.1265 swing highs and the 1.1273 prior high sit overhead.
Support: 1.1250, 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1265, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 swing highs exposes the 1.1273 prior high
Loss of the 1.1250 higher low breaks the Asia chain, with the 1.1224 Asian low next and the 1.1213 prior low below it
German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC) and Schnabel (08:05 UTC) around the London open could reset the Asian range
A drop back toward the 50% retracement of the Asia rally near 1.1242 would neutralise the intraday uptrend read
HH/HL chain off the Asia low, pressing session high.
Asia has steadily reclaimed Wednesday's NY selloff. A clean HH/HL chain runs from the 1.1224 Asia low to a 1.1260 session high, which sits at the 78.6% retrace of the 1.1273–1.1213 drop (wed selloff fib), with USD still offered after the midterms. RSI(14) near 81 is stretched, and price is now testing the session high just under the 1.1265 wed pivot and 1.1273 wed high.
Support: 1.12497, 1.12378, 1.12244
Resistance: 1.12603, 1.12647, 1.12728
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.1250 higher low and the asia trendline keeps the HH/HL chain intact; a break back below the 1.1238 swing low points to a fade of the Asia move
M15 close above the 1.1265 wed pivot opens a retest of the 1.1273 wed high and the 1.1275 neckline area
Loss of the 1.1224 asia low would erase the overnight recovery
London open alongside German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC) and Schnabel (08:05 UTC) could reset the Asian range
Lagarde (12:00 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) are the main event risk for this structure later in the session
Higher lows through Asia, pressing session high below the prior high.
Asia has recovered about 75% of the NY selloff from 1.1273 to 1.1213 as USD stays heavy after the midterm sweep. Price is testing the 1.1258 session high for a second time with RSI(14) near 82, while the Asia trendline and the 61.8% fib at 1.1250 sit just below.
Support: 1.1250, 1.12378, 1.12244
Resistance: 1.12581, 1.12647, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1258 session high exposes the 1.1265 London high and the 1.1273 prior high
Loss of the Asia trendline and the 1.1250 61.8% fib would break the higher-low chain, putting the 1.1238 swing low in focus
A move back below the 1.1224 Asian low would negate the Asia recovery
German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC, Schnabel 08:05 UTC and Lagarde 12:00/16:00 UTC could shift this read through London
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening under session high · RSI 72 · price 1.1255
Asian higher-low chain off a 1.1213 double bottom, coiling 1.1247–1.1258.
Asia session has recovered most of yesterday's post-ADP slide, printing higher lows off the 1.1213 day low double bottom as post-midterm USD softness persists. Price is coiling just under the 1.1258 session high, near the 78.6% fib of the 1.1273–1.1213 drop, with RSI(14) at 72 and bar ranges compressing.
Support: 1.1247, 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1258, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1258 session high opens the path to the 1.1273 prior high
Close below the 1.1247 higher low breaks the Asian trendline and the HL chain
Loss of the 1.1224 Asian low puts the 1.1213 day low back in play
German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC and Schnabel 08:05 UTC around London open could reset the Asian range
03:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum stalling under Asia high · RSI 73 · price 1.12535
Higher lows through Asia after the NY double bottom broke its 1.1239 neckline.
Asia extended the late-NY recovery from the 1.1213/1.1214 double bottom, clearing the 1.1239 neckline and printing an Asia high at 1.1258 before stalling just above 1.1250. RSI(14) is near 73 after the push. Price is pressing the asia trendline, with the 1.1265 London high and the 1.1273 prior high from the post-midterm USD selloff overhead.
Support: 1.1247, 1.1239, 1.1224
Resistance: 1.1258, 1.1265, 1.1273
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1247 pullback low and the asia trendline points to a deeper retrace into the asia rally fib 50% near 1.1241
A move back under the 1.1239 neckline negates the double bottom, bringing the 1.1224 Asia low into focus
A close above the 1.1258 Asia high exposes the 1.1265 London high and the 1.1273 prior high
German Factory Orders at 07:00 UTC and Schnabel at 08:05 UTC, around the London open, could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, stalling under session high · RSI 74 · price 1.12549
HH/HL chain off the 1.1224 Asian low, compressing below 1.1258.
Asia session rebuilt the post-midterm USD selling. It lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1224 asian low to a 1.1258 asian high and retraced most of Wednesday's slide from the 1.1273 prior high to 1.1213. Higher lows at 1.1247 are holding with RSI(14) near 74, but the last five bars are stalling just under the asian high in mid-Asia.
Support: 1.12471, 1.12413, 1.12244
Resistance: 1.12581, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1258 asian high opens the 1.1273 prior high
Loss of the 1.1247 higher low breaks the HL chain and exposes the fib 50% at 1.1241
Return below 1.1241 puts the 1.1224 asian low back in play
German Factory Orders at 07:00 UTC (London open) and Schnabel at 08:05 could materially shift this read
Asia HH/HL climb off a 1.1213 double bottom; neckline reclaimed.
Asia session extended a steady HH/HL climb off the 1.1224 rollover low. It reclaimed the 1.1239 neckline of the NY-hours double btm at 1.1213 and tagged an asia high at 1.1258, with the post-midterm USD selloff still the backdrop. RSI(14) near 80 is stretched, and the 1.1265 swing high and 1.1273 day high from the London-NY rally sit just overhead.
Support: 1.12471, 1.12393, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.12581, 1.12647, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1258 asia high opens the 1.1265 swing high, then the 1.1273 day high
Loss of the 1.1247 higher low and the asia trendline breaks the HH/HL chain; the 1.1239 neckline is then the next test
A return below the 1.1213 double btm lows would negate the reversal structure
German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC, and Lagarde at 12:00 and 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC carry USD rebound risk
HH/HL chain off the rollover low; double-bottom neckline broken.
NY sold the pair from the 1.1273 day high to a 1.1213 day low, but Asia has built a HH/HL chain off the 1.1224 asian low on lingering post-midterm USD softness and cleared the double-bottom neckline near 1.1239. Price is testing the 1.1258 asian high with the 1.1265 london high above and RSI(14) near 76, short-term hot but not stretched.
Support: 1.1247, 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1258, 1.1265, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1258 asian high exposes the 1.1265 london high and the 1.1273 day high
Failure to hold the 1.1247 swing low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain; the 50% level of the Asia rally fib sits near 1.1241
Loss of the 1.1224 asian low reopens the 1.1213 day low and negates the double-bottom read
German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC) and Schnabel (08:05 UTC) into London open could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend off asia low, stretched · RSI 82 · price 1.12533
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia, pausing under the asia high.
Asia session has climbed 34 pips from the 1.1224 asia low, retracing past the 61.8% level of the NY slide from 1.1273 to 1.1213 and stalling just under the 1.1258 asia high. The bounce follows Wednesday's USD selling on the Democrats' midterm win, and RSI(14) near 82 is stretched for M15. The 1.1273 prior high sits just below the 1.1275 neckline flagged in the market digest.
Support: 1.12471, 1.12428, 1.12244
Resistance: 1.12581, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1247 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and puts the 50% fib at 1.1243 in play
Close above the 1.1258 asia high opens the path to the 1.1273 prior high
Loss of 1.1224 asia low would erase the Asia rebound entirely
Factory Orders at 07:00 UTC and Schnabel at 08:05 UTC land around London open; Lagarde at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum pausing at session high · RSI 76 · price 1.1249
HH/HL chain through Asia off the rollover low; rejection at 1.1258.
Asia session has extended the post-midterm USD selling, lifting price from the 1.1224 rollover low to a 1.1258 session high. That move retraces about 61.8% of yesterday's NY sell-off from the 1.1273 prior high to the 1.1213 prior low. The 01:15 UTC bar was rejected at 1.1258 and RSI(14) is cooling from the high 70s, with the rising line from the rollover low intact.
Support: 1.1238, 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1258, 1.1265, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1258 session high opens the 1.1265 london high and the 1.1273 prior high (neckline zone)
Break of the Asia rising line and the 1.1238 pullback low ends the HL chain and exposes the 1.1224 rollover low
Loss of 1.1224 brings the 1.1213 prior low back into play, nearly unwinding the NY sell-off fib retracement
Schnabel at 08:05 UTC and PPI at 10:00 UTC ahead of Lagarde at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 1.1224 asian low, back at the 61.8% fib of the prior-day drop.
After the double bottom at the 1.1213 day low in late NY, the Asia session has ground higher in a HH/HL chain from the 1.1224 asian low. Price is back at the 61.8% fib (1.1250) of the 1.1273 day high to 1.1213 day low drop, with USD still heavy after the midterm result. RSI(14) near 72 is short-term hot, and the london high at 1.1265 sits just overhead.
Support: 1.1250, 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1273
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 61.8% fib at 1.1250 would turn the Asia push into a failed reclaim
A break of the london high at 1.1265 exposes the 1.1273 day high and the 1.1275 neckline
Loss of the asian low at 1.1224 reopens the 1.1213 day low and breaks the HH/HL chain
Schnabel at 08:05 UTC, PPI at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher highs in Asia · RSI 76 · price 1.12468
HH/HL chain off the 1.1213 NY double bottom, neckline cleared.
Early Asia session has stepped higher off the 1.1224 asia low. It has cleared the 1.1239 neckline of the NY double bottom at 1.1213 and is pressing the 61.8% fib of Wednesday's 1.1273–1.1213 selloff. RSI(14) near 76 runs hot on thin Asian ranges, and post-midterm USD softness remains the backdrop, with rising support from the ny low still intact.
Support: 1.1239, 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1265, 1.1273
What it said to watch
A close above the 61.8% fib at 1.1250 opens the london high at 1.1265 and the prior high at 1.1273
A slip back under the 1.1239 neckline returns price to the Asian range, with the asia low at 1.1224 next
A break of rising support and the 1.1213 ny low would negate the double bottom read
Schnabel (08:05 UTC) and Lagarde (12:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since NY low · RSI 72 · price 1.12422
Asia session grinding up from a double bottom, testing the session high.
The NY selloff from the 1.1273 prior high, as firm ADP trimmed the post-midterm USD drop, found a double bottom at 1.1213/1.1214. Early Asia has climbed on rising lows through the 1.1239 lower high and is pressing the 1.1244 session high near the 50% retrace, with RSI(14) at 72 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.1234, 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1250, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.1250 opens the path back to the 1.1273 prior high
Slip under the 1.1234 pullback low puts the rising lows trendline at risk
Loss of the 1.1224 session low turns the focus back to the 1.1213 double bottom
Schnabel 08:05 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows off the NY low · RSI 64 · price 1.12396
Double low near 1.1213, higher-low chain into early Asia, testing the neckline.
NY's slide from the 1.1273 session high, as firm US data trimmed the post-midterm USD selloff, found a double low at the 1.1213 NY low. Early Asia has printed higher lows from 1.1224, the Asia low. Price pushed through the 1.1239 neckline to an Asia high of 1.1244, near the 50% retrace of the NY selloff fib, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.12393, 1.12244, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.12444, 1.1250, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1239 neckline turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.1224 Asia low undercuts the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.1244 Asia high and the 1.1250 round number clears the 50% retrace toward the 61.8% near 1.1250
Schnabel 08:05 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC, then US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Recovering from NY selloff, early Asia drift higher · RSI 61 · price 1.12352
Lower high from 1.1273, twin lows at 1.1213, rising Asia lows.
The midterm-driven USD selloff topped at the 1.1273 session high in NY before resilient US data dragged price to a 1.1213 double low. Early Asia is pressing the 1.1239 lower high, which sits beside the 38.2% retracement of that drop. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is compressed at about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1243, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 lower high completes the double bottom and exposes the 50% fib at 1.1243, then the 1.1273 session high
Loss of the 1.1224 Asia low breaks the rising Asia lows and returns focus to the 1.1213 double low
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Recovering from NY low, below day high · RSI 65 · price 1.12363
Higher lows off a 1.1213/1.1214 double low.
After post-midterm USD selling peaked at the 1.1273 day high, resilient US data drove a NY sell-off to the 1.1213 NY low, retested at 1.1214. Early Asia has carried price up on rising lows into the 38.2% retrace near 1.1236, just under the 1.1239 NY bounce high, with ATR near 3 pips in thin trade.
Support: 1.12244, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.12393, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 NY bounce high completes the double bottom and exposes the 50% retrace of the NY sell-off near 1.1243
Break of the rising lows and the 1.1224 rollover low returns focus to the 1.1213 NY low
German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC and Schnabel 08:05 UTC could set the London open tone
Lagarde 12:00/16:00 UTC and US Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC could put the 1.1273 day high back in play or reverse the bounce
00:01 UTC
Post-NY selloff, grinding higher in thin Asia · RSI 61 · price 1.12333
Rising lows off 1.1213 double low; lower-high sequence from 1.1273 intact below 1.1239.
The midterm-driven USD selloff topped at the 1.1273 day high in early NY. Resilient US data then pulled the pair to a double low at 1.1213/1.1214. Early Asia is grinding higher on rising lows off the 1.1224 rollover low, pressing the 38.2% fib and EMA50 near 1.1235 just under the 1.1239 swing high.
Support: 1.12244, 1.12128
Resistance: 1.12393, 1.1250, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1250 round number (61.8% fib)
Loss of the rising lows and the 1.1224 rollover low puts the 1.1213 double low back in play
German factory orders 07:00 UTC, Schnabel 08:05 and EZ PPI 10:00 could expand range at London open
Lagarde 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read toward the 1.1273 day high or the double low