EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Pullback from day high, basing near lows · RSI 62 · price 1.1233
Tight box 1.1213–1.1239 after NY fade, higher lows into early Asia.
The post-midterm USD selloff lifted EUR/USD to a 1.1273 day high early in the NY session, then firm US jobs data drove a fade to the 1.1213 NY low. Since then price has held a 1.1213–1.1239 box with a potential double bottom and rising lows through the thin rollover. Early Asia trade sits at 1.1233, above EMA20, flat on EMA50 and just under the 38.2% retracement of the NY sell-off.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 bounce high completes the double bottom and opens the 1.1250 round number
Break of the 1.1224 rollover low and the rising lows line returns focus to the 1.1213 NY low
1.1273 day high remains the session cap on the fib retracement of the NY sell-off
EZ PPI at 10:00 UTC, then Lagarde (12:00/16:00 UTC) and US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Pullback from NY high, stabilising · RSI 49 · price 1.1232
Double low 1.1213/1.1214 under 1.1239 neckline, rising lows since.
The post-midterm rally topped at 1.1273 at the NY open, then faded 60 pips to 1.1213 as resilient US data trimmed USD losses. A double low at 1.1213/1.1214 has held since, with the 1.1239 neckline capping. Price is grinding up on rising lows into a thin Asia session, near the 38.2% fib of the NY drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 neckline confirms the double low and opens the 1.1250 round number
Break of the rising lows and the 1.1222 london low puts the 1.1213 double low back in focus
M15 close below 1.1213 extends the NY decline from the 1.1273 prior high
Schnabel 08:05, EZ PPI 10:00 and Lagarde 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Intraday down from 1.1273, now flat · RSI 50 · price 1.12314
NY lower low at 1.1213 held twice; tight post-rollover drift below 1.1239.
Resilient US data drove a NY selloff from the 1.1273 session high after the post-midterm rally. The move stalled at the 1.1213 NY low, which held twice. Early Asia has the pair drifting at 1.1224–1.1232, below the 1.1239 NY bounce high, with ATR(14) compressed to about 5 pips and RSI(14) neutral at 50.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1265, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 ny bounce high completes the intraday double bottom off 1.1213 and puts the 1.1265 london high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1222 london low reopens the 1.1213 ny low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Schnabel 08:05 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the 1.1273 session high marks the top of the selloff
23:01 UTC
Pullback from 1.1273 day high, flattening · RSI 55 · price 1.1228
Lower highs 1.1239/1.1232 over 1.1214 base; tight range.
Midterm-driven USD selling took the pair from 1.1183 through the asia high at 1.1263 to a 1.1273 day high early in NY. That push failed, and resilient US jobs data drove a fade to a 1.1214 ny low, tested twice. The bounce stalled near the 38.2% fib at a 1.1239 lower high, and price is now drifting at 1.1228 in thin post-rollover trade under the fade-line.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1263, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 lower high and fade-line breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1263 asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1214 ny low exposes the 1.1200 round number
German Factory Orders at 07:00 UTC and Schnabel at 08:05 into London open could set the next range
Reclaiming the 1.1273 day high would negate the false break read
22:46 UTC
NY sell-off stalled, flat into Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.12276
Lower high at 1.1239 after NY drop; tight base above 1.1213 double low.
The NY session reversed London's midterm-driven rally from the 1.1273 day high to a double low at 1.1213/1.1214 as resilient US data pared USD losses. Price has since compressed between 1.1218 and 1.1232 through the rollover. It sits below the 1.1239 swing high and just above the 1.1222 London low, with ATR near 4–5 pips.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1239 swing high reclaims the 38.2% fib of the NY drop and exposes the 1.1273 day high
Failure at the 1.1222 london low puts the 1.1213 double low back in focus; a break there extends the NY lower-low sequence
German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC) and Schnabel (08:05 UTC) at the London open could break the overnight range; Lagarde at 12:00 UTC is the larger risk
22:31 UTC
Short-term down off day high, now compressing · RSI 47 · price 1.12276
Lower highs inside a tight post-NY band above the 1.1213 NY low.
London pushed above the Asian range to a 1.1273 day high, then NY reversed the post-midterm USD selling on resilient US data. That NY selloff printed a 1.1213 NY low, retested at 1.1214. Price has since compressed under the 1.1232 late NY cap, with lower highs from the 1.1239 bounce high, sitting just above yesterday's 1.1222 Asian low as a thin Asia session opens after rollover; RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR(14) is down to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1232, 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 bounce high breaks the lower highs and opens the 38.2–50% zone of the NY selloff (1.1236–1.1243)
Loss of the 1.1222 Asian low brings the 1.1213 NY low back into play; a break there confirms a lower-low toward the 1.1200 round number
Holding below the 1.1232 late NY cap keeps the compression intact through the Asia session
German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC) and Schnabel (08:05) into London; Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and a retest of the 1.1273 day high carry the larger risk to this read
22:16 UTC
Down from day high, stalling into rollover · RSI 52 · price 1.12268
Lower highs from 1.1273; double low at 1.1213-1.1214; tight 1.1227-1.1232 range.
Midterm-driven USD selling lifted EURUSD to a 1.1273 day high, where it met rejection. Resilient US data then dragged it to the 1.1213 NY low, which held twice. Price is now compressing below the 1.1232 late NY cap into the broker rollover, with lower highs intact under the 1.1239 bounce high (near the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib).
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1232, 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1239 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence and confirms the small double low
Loss of the 1.1222 asia low exposes a retest of the 1.1213 ny low
Thu Lagarde (12:00/16:00 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Intraday pullback from day high, now flat · RSI 47 · price 1.1228
Lower highs from 1.1273, double low at 1.1213/1.1214, tight late-NY band.
Midterm-driven USD selling lifted the pair from the 1.1180 asia low, and London plus early NY extended to a 1.1273 day high just shy of the 1.1275 neckline. A rejection there and resilient US jobs data drove a NY-session slide to a 1.1213/1.1214 double low. Late NY is compressing between the 1.1217 late low and 1.1232 late high, below EMA20, with ranges contracting sharply.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1213, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1232, 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 38.2–50% fib zone (1.1236–1.1243) in play
Failure to hold the 1.1213 double low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1180 asia low
German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC
21:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend from day high, stalling · RSI 47 · price 1.1229
Lower highs since 1.1273, twin lows at 1.1213 holding.
Midterm-driven USD selling lifted the pair from 1.1180 in Asia to a 1.1273 day high in the London-NY transition, before the ADP beat drove a NY selloff to a 1.1213 NY low that held twice. Price is now drifting in a thin post-NY band just above the London low at 1.1222, capped by the late high at 1.1232 and below the 1.1239 lower high.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1232, 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1213 NY low breaks the twin-low floor and extends the lower-highs sequence
Close above the 1.1239 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1273 day high back in view
Late high at 1.1232 capping the drift; slipping back under the 1.1222 London low reopens the NY low
German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Pullback from session high, stalling in late NY · RSI 46 · price 1.12298
Lower highs from 1.1273; compressing in a 1.1213–1.1239 range.
Midterm-driven USD selling lifted EURUSD from 1.1180 in Asia to a 1.1273 session high in London. The pair met rejection there, and NY unwound the move to a 1.1213 NY low on firm US jobs data. Late NY is compressing below the 1.1239 lower high, with price flat on EMA20, RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR(14) shrinking to about 6 pips.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1273 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1222 London low and the 1.1213 NY low confirms a lower-low below the late-NY range
German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC) and Schnabel (08:05 UTC) are the first scheduled risk into London open
The midterm USD selloff lifted EURUSD from 1.1180 in Asia to a 1.1273 day high in London. The ADP beat then drove a 60-pip NY retracement to the 1.1213 NY low. Late NY has formed a double bottom at 1.1213–1.1214, with price grinding back toward the 1.1239 lower high, near the 38.2% fib, as ATR(14) contracts to ~6 pips.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 lower high confirms the double bottom and opens the 1.1265–1.1273 day high zone
Loss of the 1.1222 london low puts the 1.1213 ny low back in play; a break there extends the NY decline
German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC) and Euro PPI (10:00 UTC) around London open could materially shift this read
Thin Asia session liquidity keeps the 1.1213–1.1239 range likely to hold until London
21:01 UTC
Downtrend since NY open, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 1.12288
Lower highs from 1.1273; NY low tested twice near 1.1213; late-NY compression.
Midterm-driven USD selling carried the pair to a 1.1273 day high early in the NY session. Firm ADP and the dollar's recovery then drove a lower-high sequence down to the 1.1213 NY low, which held on a second test at 1.1214. Late NY is compressing between 1.1217 and 1.1231, just under EMA20 and below both the 1.1239 lower high and the 38.2% fib of the NY selloff, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 lower high breaks the NY lower-high chain and opens the 1.1250 psych level.
Failure to hold the 1.1222 London low, then a break of the 1.1213 NY low, extends the downtrend toward the 1.1200 round number.
German Factory Orders and Schnabel early in the London session on Thursday, then Lagarde at 12:00 UTC, could materially shift this read.
20:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend from day high, stalling into late NY · RSI 43 · price 1.12291
Lower highs since 1.1273; late-NY range 1.1213–1.1239 with lows holding twice.
The post-midterm USD selloff lifted EUR/USD from 1.1180 to a 1.1273 day high in London. The ADP beat and the dollar's recovery then drove a 60-pip London-NY drop to the 1.1213 NY low. Late NY is ranging 1.1213–1.1239: the bounce stalled at the NY pm high near the 38.2% retrace, price sits flat at EMA20 and RSI(14) is near 43.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 NY pm high breaks the descending highs and brings 1.1250 psych back into view
Failure to hold the 1.1222 London low exposes the 1.1213 NY low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Descending highs from the 1.1273 day high remain intact while price stays below 1.1239
German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.1239 over twin lows near 1.1213, compressing after NY.
Post-midterm USD selling lifted the pair to a 1.1273 session high early in the NY session. It then rejected and slid to 1.1213 as the ADP beat helped the dollar recover. Since then it has printed a lower high at 1.1239 and twin lows near 1.1213, and late-NY trade is drifting just under the ema20 at 1.1229 with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 lower high breaks the post-rejection lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1273 session high back in view
Failure of the 1.1213 twin lows exposes the 1.1200 round number
Thin Asia session after NY close; Lagarde (Thu 12:00/16:00 UTC) and US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the 1.1273 day high, momentum flattening · RSI 46 · price 1.12233
Lower highs since 13:15 UTC; twin lows near 1.1213, price pinned at the 1.1222 Asian base.
The post-midterm USD selloff carried EURUSD to a 1.1273 day high early in the NY session. The ADP beat then revived the dollar, and the pair faded through NY in a run of lower highs. The bounce from the 1.1213 NY low stalled at a 1.1239 swing high between the 38.2% and 50% fib, and price is now drifting at the 1.1222 Asian base with ATR compressed to about 8 pips after NY close.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1213 NY low, tested twice, confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1200 round number
M15 close above the 1.1239 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 50% fib near 1.1243
A move back toward the 1.1273 day high needs a fresh USD leg lower first
Thursday's German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC), Lagarde (12:00 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) could reset this range
20:00 UTC
Intraday downtrend from day high, momentum flattening · RSI 45 · price 1.12201
Lower highs below 1.1273; base forming near the NY low.
The post-midterm USD selloff carried EURUSD from the gap low near 1.1180 to a day high of 1.1273. NY then rejected it as firm US jobs data lifted the dollar, and the pair slid about 60 pips to the 1.1213 NY low. The bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib with a lower high at 1.1239, and price is now drifting just above the NY low late in the session with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1213 NY low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1200 round number
Reclaiming 1.1239 breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the NY decline
A loss of 1.1200 exposes the gap low area near 1.1180
German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (12:00 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read
NY lower highs and lower lows, holding above 1.1213 swing low.
Resilient US data revived the USD and unwound the midterm-driven rally from the 1.1273 day high. NY printed lower highs and broke below the 1.1224 Asian low to a 1.1213 swing low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.1239 lower high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib, and price now sits just above the swing low with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 round number
Recovery back above the 1.1224 Asian low and the 1.1239 lower high negates the NY downtrend read
Lagarde (Thu 12:00/16:00 UTC) and US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts
19:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off day high · RSI 41 · price 1.12217
Lower highs from 1.1273; price retesting the 1.1213 session low in late NY.
USD selling after the midterm result lifted the pair to a 1.1273 day high early in NY. The dollar then recovered on resilient US data (ADP beat), and the pair has printed lower highs under a descending trendline since. The 18:00 UTC bounce stalled at 1.1239, a lower high near the 50% fib, and price is back near the 1.1213 session low after London close, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 round number
Close above the 1.1239 lower high clears the descending trendline and neutralises the intraday downtrend read
Recovery back through the 50% fib and toward the 1.1273 day high would point to the selloff being a retracement only
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC Thu and US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from 1.1273 session high · RSI 38 · price 1.12192
Lower highs in NY, price retesting the 1.1213 swing low.
EUR/USD has unwound the midterm-driven London rally to the 1.1273 session high, as resilient US data fed a NY slide below the 1.1222 London low. Late NY is retesting the 1.1213 swing low after a lower high at 1.1239 capped the bounce near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) at 38.
Support: 1.12135, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12222, 1.12393, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1239 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1213 swing low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Reclaiming the 1.1222 London low would turn this retest into a double low
The 1.1273 session high remains the cap on the day's range
German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (12:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend since the 13:00 UTC high · RSI 43 · price 1.12247
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian low under retest.
The midterm-driven USD selling peaked at the 1.1273 session high early in NY. Resilient US data then pulled the pair through the asian low to the 1.1213 ny low. The late-NY bounce stalled at a 1.1239 lower high, short of the 50% of the NY sell-off, and price is back on the 1.1222 asian low with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1200 round number
M15 close above the 1.1239 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the sell-off read
German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC and Schnabel 08:05 UTC set the tone into the London open
Lagarde 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims 13:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read; the 1.1273 session high remains the cap
18:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY open · RSI 41 · price 1.12283
NY sell-off from day high, weak bounce capped below 1.1240.
The London push to a 1.1273 day high reversed after the ADP beat lifted USD, and NY drove price 60 pips down to a 1.1213 NY low. That low briefly undercut the 1.1222 asian low before snapping back, a false break. The late-NY bounce stalled twice at the 1.1239 bounce high, near the 38.2% of the NY sell-off fib and under the lower highs trendline; price is fading back toward the lows with RSI(14) at 41, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 bounce high and the lower highs trendline breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1222 asian low puts the 1.1213 NY low back in play; a close below it extends the lower-low chain
Rejection near 1.1239 would keep the bounce below the 38.2–50% retracement of the NY sell-off
Recovery toward the 1.1273 day high needs acceptance above 1.1240 first
Thin Asia session ahead; Lagarde (12:00 UTC) and US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Post-rally pullback, now ranging · RSI 44 · price 1.12365
NY lower leg off 1.1273 session high, false break below 1.1222, tight 1.1234–1.1240 range.
The USD selloff after the midterms lifted EUR/USD from 1.1180 to the 1.1263 Asian high, and London extended it to a 1.1273 session high before rejection inside the 1.1250–1.1270 neckline zone sent NY 60 pips lower to the 1.1213 NY low. The dip below the 1.1222 swing low reversed as a false break, and price now sits in a tight 1.1234–1.1240 range near the 38.2% retrace of the NY selloff, with RSI(14) at 44 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1234, 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1263, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 range top brings the 50% NY selloff retrace (1.1243) and the 1.1263 asian high into play
Failure to hold the 1.1234 range low exposes the 1.1222 swing low and the 1.1213 NY low
Overhead, the 1.1273 session high caps the 1.1250–1.1270 neckline zone; a close above it changes the read
Thin Asia session ahead; German Factory Orders (07:00 UTC) and ECB's Schnabel (08:05 UTC) Thursday are the next scheduled catalysts
18:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, bouncing off NY low · RSI 43 · price 1.12348
Lower high at 1.1273, bounce stalling near 38.2% fib.
London extended the USD-driven post-midterm rally above the Asian range to a 1.1273 session high. NY then reversed it by 60 pips to a 1.1213 ny low, briefly sweeping the 1.1222 london low. The late-NY bounce is stalling at the 1.1239 bounce high, near the 38.2% retracement, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) around 43.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1273
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1239 bounce high brings the 1.1250 fib 61.8 into play. That zone overlaps the 1.1250–1.1270 neckline.
Reclaiming 1.1250 reopens the 1.1273 session high.
Failure to hold the 1.1222 london low exposes the 1.1213 ny low, and a break there extends the NY lower-low sequence.
Thursday event risk could reset this read: German Factory Orders 07:00 UTC, EZ PPI 10:00 UTC, Lagarde 12:00 and 16:00 UTC, and US claims 13:30 UTC.
NY reversal from 1.1273 day high; false break below 1.1222 London low.
The midterm-driven USD selloff lifted EUR from 1.1180 to the 1.1263 Asia high, and London stretched it to a 1.1273 day high short of the 1.1280 four-week high before NY reversed the gains. Price dipped through the 1.1222 London low to a 1.1213 NY low, then reclaimed it. The late-NY bounce is stalling at the ema20 near 1.1239, around the 38.2% retracement of the NY drop.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1263, 1.1273
What it said to watch
A close above the ema20 and 1.1243 (50% of the NY drop) reopens the 1.1263 Asia high and 1.1273 day high.
A move back below the 1.1222 London low turns the false break into a lower low, exposing the 1.1213 NY low.
ECB Schnabel and Cipollone plus EZ PPI in the Thursday London morning, then Lagarde at 12:00 GMT, could shift this read.
17:46 UTC
Intraday pullback inside an up-day, bouncing off NY low · RSI 46 · price 1.12375
Lower highs from the 1.1273 day high, sweep of the London low then reclaim.
The midterm-driven USD selloff carried price from 1.1180 in Asia to a 1.1273 day high in the NY session. That high was rejected inside the 1.1250–1.1270 neckline zone, and the 60-pip drop swept the London low at 1.1222 into a 1.1213 NY low before a bounce to the 38.2% fib at 1.1236, just under the ema20 at 1.1239.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1239 and the 50% fib at 1.1243 puts the 1.1250 neckline back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1222 London low exposes the 1.1213 NY low and a lower-low sequence
Liquidity typically thins after the NY close, and the bounce is still inside the post-high range
Thu: EZ PPI 10:00 GMT, Jobless Claims 13:30 GMT and Lagarde at 12:00/16:00 GMT could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the day high, oversold · RSI 27 · price 1.12182
Lower highs through NY session, London-open low broken.
London extended the USD-driven midterm rally to a 1.1273 day high, but NY rejected the 1.1250-1.1270 zone and unwound about 60 pips on lower highs, slicing through the ldn pullback low at 1.1236 and the ldn open low at 1.1222. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is sitting on the 61.8% fib of the Asia-low-to-day-high move near 1.1215, with the 1.1213 session low just beneath and RSI(14) oversold near 27.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1236, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1222 ldn open low would mark a false break and bring the 1.1236 ldn pullback into play
Failure to hold the 1.1213 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number and then the 1.1180 asia low
A hold of the 61.8% fib zone near 1.1215 would leave the session low as an intraday base
Rebound capped below 1.1273 day high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
ECB Schnabel (08:05 GMT) and EZ PPI (10:00 GMT) Thursday could materially shift this read
NY lower highs from 1.1273 day high; 1.1222 range floor broken.
The overnight USD-driven midterm rally from the 1.1180 rally origin topped at the 1.1273 day high early in NY. Price has since slid ~60 pips through the 1.1222 london low, the floor of the Asia/London range, and is pausing at the 1.1213 session low near the 61.8% retracement of that rally. RSI(14) ~27, ATR ~9 pips.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1240, 1.1273
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1213 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number, the reclaim level flagged in the macro read.
A sustained break of 1.1200 puts the 1.1180 rally origin back in view and unwinds the full overnight rally.
A move back above the 1.1222 london low and the 1.1240 swing high would turn the range break into a false break.
No scheduled data in the next 8h; ECB speakers from 07:30 GMT Thu and Lagarde at 12:00 GMT could materially shift this read.
Lower-high sequence from 1.1273 session high; London leg fully retraced.
Asia rallied from 1.1180 to 1.1263 on broad USD weakness after the midterms. London extended to a 1.1273 session high but was rejected near the 1.1250-1.1270 neckline zone. NY has unwound the entire London leg through a chain of lower highs, and price is sitting on the 1.1219 session low near the London-open base with RSI(14) at 27.
Support: 1.12187, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12395, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1219 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1240 lower high, also the 38.2% of the NY decline, breaks the lower-highs chain
ATR near 8.5 pips; a move back toward the 1.1273 session high would need to clear the 50-61.8% zone at 1.1246-1.1252 first
Thursday's EZ PPI, Lagarde and US jobless claims could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend reversing, lower highs since NY high · RSI 28 · price 1.12227
Lower highs and lower lows off 1.1273, testing the London low.
Asia rallied about 83 pips off the 1.1180 post-rollover gap low as USD sold on the Democratic midterm sweep. NY then printed the day high at 1.1273, just shy of the 1.1280 four-week high, and was rejected. A chain of lower highs, with 1.1266 as the latest, has since unwound the move back to the 1.1222 London low and the 50% fib of the Asia-NY rally, with RSI(14) near 28 into London close.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1236, 1.1266, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 London low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1215 and the 1.1200 round number.
Reclaim of the 1.1236 broken pivot would ease the lower-high sequence; above the 1.1266 lower high it is invalidated.
Day high at 1.1273 and the 1.1280 four-week high cap the session; the digest flags 1.1250-1.1270 as a neckline zone.
Thu morning EZ PPI and ECB speakers, with Lagarde at 12:00 GMT, could materially shift this read.
16:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since 13:00 UTC · RSI 34 · price 1.12337
False break above the Asian range top reversed; NY lower-high sequence into 1.1231.
USD weakness after the midterm result lifted the pair from the 1.1180 post-gap low overnight. London then pushed above the Asian range top to a 1.1273 session high, but that false break unwound through NY. A lower-high sequence has taken price back to the 1.1231 ny low, roughly the 78.6% retrace of the london low-to-high leg, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1250, 1.1273
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1231 ny low and the 1.1222 london low completes a full retrace of the London leg
Reclaim of the 1.1240 breakdown level and the 1.1250 neckline breaks the NY lower-high sequence; 1.1273 session high above
No scheduled release in the next 8h; Lagarde (Thu 12:00 GMT) is the next scheduled catalyst for this read
16:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend broken, NY pullback in progress · RSI 34 · price 1.12387
Lower highs since the 13:00 UTC session high; price back inside the Asian range.
Midterm-driven USD selling lifted EUR/USD from 1.1180 in Asia. London pushed past the 1.1265 asian high, but the move met rejection at the 1.1273 session high. Selling around the ADP beat during NY hours then fell about 40 pips to the 1.1232 ny low, back below the ema20 near 1.1250 and the 61.8% of the London leg fib, with RSI(14) at 34 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.1232, 1.1222, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1265, 1.1273
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1232 ny low opens the 1.1222 london low, with the 1.1200 psych level below
A close back above the ema20 at 1.1250 and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the NY reversal
Re-acceptance above the 1.1265 asian high is needed to revisit the 1.1273 session high
Thu event risk: Schnabel 08:05 UTC, US claims 13:30 UTC, Lagarde 12:00/16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend reversing in NY session · RSI 34 · price 1.12334
NY selloff from 1.1273 session high broke the London HL chain; price testing the deep retracement.
The post-midterm USD selloff lifted EURUSD from 1.1180 in Asia to a 1.1273 session high, but the NY session rejected the high and shed about 40 pips, breaking the London trendline through the 1.1236 prior low. Price sits at the 78.6% fib of the 1.1222–1.1273 leg with RSI(14) at 34, just above the 1.1222 london low.
Support: 1.12222, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12364, 1.12571, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1222 london low breaks the day's higher-low structure and exposes the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1236 prior low and the 1.1257 lower high would restore the London uptrend read
1.1273 session high caps; Schnabel and Lagarde on Thursday could materially shift this read
NY lower highs and lower lows off the 1.1273 session high, back inside the Asian range.
The Asia-session midterm rally from 1.1180 extended in London through the 1.1263 Asian high to a 1.1273 session high, just under the 1.1280 neckline. Price was rejected there. NY hours have since printed lower highs and slipped below the 1.1254 prior low to the 61.8% retracement near 1.1240 as USD pared losses. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is about 8 pips, with the 1.1236 swing low the next reference.
Support: 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12536, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1236 swing low exposes the 1.1222 london low and the move's full retracement
Recovery above the 1.1254 prior low and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the NY pullback
Retest of the 1.1273 session high would put the 1.1280 neckline back in focus
Schnabel (08:05 UTC) and Lagarde (12:00/16:00 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 45 · price 1.12461
False break of Asian high, lower highs through NY session.
USD selling after the Democratic midterm win carried EUR from 1.1180 to a 1.1263 Asian high, and the London push to a 1.1273 session high was a false break that failed to hold. NY session is printing lower highs, the latest at 1.1266, with price back at the 50% retrace near 1.1246, below EMA20 and RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12664, 1.12728
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1266 lower high, then the 1.1273 session high, ends the NY pullback sequence
M15 close below the 1.1236 london low exposes the 61.8% retrace and the 1.1222 asian low
London close at 16:00 UTC may thin the session range
Lagarde Thu 12:00/16:00 UTC is the next major EUR catalyst for the 1.1250–1.1280 zone
15:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading after session high · RSI 53 · price 1.12555
HL chain from 1.1222 intact; lower highs since the 1.1273 peak.
The midterm-driven USD selloff lifted EURUSD off the 22:45 UTC low, and London extended the leg from the 1.1222 asian low to a 1.1273 session high at 13:00 UTC. Since the US data, price has slipped back below the 1.1265 prior highs, printing lower highs and holding the 38.2% fib at 1.1254, with RSI(14) cooled to 53.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1236, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1273, 1.1280
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.1254 (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.1236 swing low and the London trendline
Reclaim of 1.1265 prior highs and the 1.1273 session high reopens the 1.1280 neckline
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 60 · price 1.12588
Higher highs and higher lows since London open; post-ADP dip into 38.2% fib.
Dollar weakness after the midterms drove a higher-low chain from the 1.1222 London-open low to a 1.1273 session high. The ADP beat then knocked price back to 1.1254, retesting the fib 38.2. Price is holding just above EMA20 with RSI(14) near 60, and the rising trendline and 1.1236 swing low still underpin the sequence.
Support: 1.12536, 1.12475, 1.12364
Resistance: 1.12728, 1.1280
What it said to watch
S&P PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1254 fib 38.2 exposes the fib 50 at 1.1248 and the rising trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1236 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.1273 session high puts the 1.1280 4-wk high in play
14:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 52 · price 1.12563
London HH/HL chain intact; NY retracing half of the last leg.
The post-midterm USD selloff lifted the pair from 1.1180 to the 1.1263 Asian high. London set a 1.1236 higher low and pushed to a 1.1273 session high. Since the NY open, price has slipped back under the Asian high after the ADP beat, holding the 1.1254 NY low near the 50% fib of that leg, with RSI(14) cooling to 52.
Support: 1.12536, 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12625, 1.12728, 1.1280
What it said to watch
S&P PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.1263 Asian high reopens the 1.1273 session high and the 1.1280 four-week high
Failure to hold the 1.1254 NY low and 50% fib exposes the 1.1236 higher low and the London trendline
A break of the 1.1236 higher low ends the HH/HL sequence, with the 1.1222 London low next
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 58 · price 1.12599
Higher lows since London open, retesting Asian high.
A USD flush after the midterm result lifted EUR/USD from 1.1180 to the 1.1262 Asia high. London then built higher lows off the 1.1222 london low and the 1.1236 swing low, and the early NY session printed a session high at 1.1273 before slipping back to retest the Asia high near 1.1260. RSI(14) has cooled to about 58, with the 4-week high at 1.1280 still untested.
Support: 1.1260, 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12728, 1.1280
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI 14:45 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the Asia high at 1.1260 puts the 1.1236 swing low and rising trendline in play
M15 close above the 1.1273 session high opens the path to the 1.1280 4-week high
A break below the 1.1222 london low invalidates the higher-low sequence
HH/HL chain through London; Asian high broken and now being retested in early NY.
The post-midterm USD selloff lifted the pair from 1.1180 overnight. London then built higher lows at the 1.1222 london low and the 1.1236 swing low, and broke the 1.1263 asian high to a 1.1273 session high. Price is retesting the asian high in early NY with RSI(14) near 59, not stretched, and the session high sits just below the 1.1280 4-week high flagged in the digest.
Support: 1.12625, 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12728, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1263 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1236 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
Close above the 1.1273 session high puts the 1.1280 4-week high in play
US S&P PMI 14:45 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London open low, holding above Asia high.
The post-midterm USD selloff drove an Asia-session leg to the 1.1263 Asia high. London built higher lows at the 1.1222 london low and the 1.1236 swing low, then printed a 1.1273 session high just short of the 1.1280 4wk high. Into the London-NY transition, price is consolidating on the Asia high with RSI(14) neutral near 57 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 1.12625, 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12728, 1.1280
What it said to watch
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1273 session high puts the 1.1280 4wk high in play
Failure to hold the 1.1263 asia high exposes the 1.1236 swing low and rising trendline
Break below the 1.1222 london low ends the higher-low sequence
Higher lows since London open low; Asian high reclaimed.
The post-midterm USD selloff drove a Asia-session spike from 1.1180 to the 1.12625 asia high, and London built higher lows off the 1.12222 london low and the 1.12364 swing low. Early NY broke the Asian high to a 1.12728 session high, just under the 1.1280 4-week high, and price is now retesting 1.1263–1.1265 with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.12625, 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12728, 1.1280
What it said to watch
ADP (13:15 UTC) and Lane (13:20 UTC) land now, and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.12728 session high puts the 1.1280 4-week high in play
Slip back below the 1.12625 asia high turns the break into a false break
Break of the 1.12364 swing low ends the higher-low chain and the london leg trendline
Higher lows at 1.1222 and 1.1236, marginal new session high at 1.1270.
The post-midterm USD selloff drove an Asia-session leg from 1.1180 to 1.1263. London held the 1.1222 London low and set a higher low at 1.1236, then pushed through the Asian high to a 1.1270 session high into the London-NY transition. RSI(14) is near 57 with the 1.1250 round number just below price.
Support: 1.1250, 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.1270, 1.1280
What it said to watch
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1270 session high opens the 1.1280 4-week high
Failure to hold the 1.1236 higher low breaks the trendline and the HL chain
Loss of the 1.1222 London low puts the 38.2–50% fib zone of the Asia rally in play
ECB Lane at 13:20 UTC is a secondary EUR risk
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at the highs · RSI 56 · price 1.12595
Higher lows since London open, testing the Asian high.
The post-midterm USD selloff lifted EUR/USD from 1.1180 in the Asia session. London has built higher lows at the london low of 1.1222 and the 1.1236 swing low. The 12:30 UTC push through the 1.1262–1.1265 asian high reached a session high at 1.1270 but was rejected straight back to 1.1260, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12647, 1.1270, 1.1280
What it said to watch
US ADP (13:15 UTC), ECB Lane (13:20) and ISM Services (15:00) land in the next few hours and could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.1270 session high reopens the 1.1280 4wk high
Failure to hold the 1.1236 swing low (38.2% of the overnight rally) breaks the higher-low chain from the london low
12:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing new session high · RSI 65 · price 1.12668
Higher lows since London open; break above the 1.1263–1.1265 prior highs.
The USD selloff after the US midterms drove the overnight leg from 1.1180 to 1.1263 in the Asia session. London built higher lows at the 1.1222 London low and the 1.1236 swing low. Price is now clearing the 1.1263–1.1265 prior highs to a session high at 1.1267, with RSI(14) near 65 and the 4-week high at 1.1280 overhead.
Support: 1.1264, 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12671, 1.1280
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.1264 prior highs would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the 1.1236 swing low breaks the higher-lows line
ADP at 13:15 UTC, Lane at 13:20 and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Reaction at the 1.1280 4-week high if the session high extends
12:31 UTC
Post-breakout range, pressing range top · RSI 58 · price 1.12563
1.1222–1.1265 range since Asia; higher low at 1.1236.
The post-midterm USD selloff lifted EUR/USD from 1.1180 to 1.1262 in Asia, and price has ranged 1.1222–1.1265 since. The London leg off the 1.1222 London low set a marginal session high at 1.1265 around the in-line HICP, then rejected. It held a higher low at 1.1236, near the 61.8% retrace, and is back testing the range top.
Support: 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12647, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 session high breaks the range top and opens the 1.1280 4-week high
Failure to hold the 1.1236 higher low puts the 1.1222 London low back in play
ADP at 13:15 UTC, Lane at 13:20 and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:16 UTC
Post-gap uptrend, now ranging · RSI 54 · price 1.12534
1.1222–1.1265 range since Asia, higher lows.
The post-midterm USD selloff drove the Asia-session election rally from 1.1180 to 1.1263. Price has since held a 1.1222–1.1265 range: the London range low sits on the 50% fib, and the range top rejected again after in-line HICP. The 1.1236 swing low is a higher low on a rising trendline, and RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 1.1236, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 range top exposes the 1.1280 4wk high
Break of the 1.1236 swing low and the rising trendline puts the 1.1222 range low back in play
US ADP at 13:15 UTC, Lane at 13:20 and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could break the range
1.1222–1.1265 range above overnight breakout; higher low at 1.1236.
The USD selloff after the midterm result produced an Asian-session breakout from 1.1180 to 1.1263. London dipped to a 1.1222 london low, then retested the top at 1.1265, the session high, where it was rejected. Price sits mid-range at 1.1251 after a higher low at 1.1236 near the 61.8% retrace, with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12647, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 session high opens a test of the 1.1280 4wk high
Loss of the 1.1236 higher low puts the 1.1222 london low and range floor back in play
ADP at 13:15 UTC and Lane at 13:20 UTC, ahead of ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could break the range in the first hour of NY
11:46 UTC
Post-election uptrend, now ranging below session high · RSI 54 · price 1.12487
1.1222–1.1265 range with higher lows; London break of Asian high rejected.
The USD-driven election rally from 1.1180 topped at 1.1263 in Asia. London pushed marginally to a 1.1265 session high and was rejected back to a 1.1236 swing low, a higher low just beyond the 61.8% of the London leg. Price is holding just above ema20 near 1.1246, mid-range, late in the London session.
Support: 1.12461, 1.12364, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12647, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 session high invalidates the false-break read and puts the 1.1280 4wk high in play
Loss of the 1.1236 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.1222 london low
Repeated M15 closes below ema20 at 1.1246 point to rotation back toward the range lows
ADP 13:15 UTC, ECB's Lane 13:20 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The post-midterm USD sell-off drove the Asia rally from 1.1180 and set a 1.1222–1.1263 Asian range. London ran just above the Asian high to 1.1265, then failed after the in-line HICP, leaving a double top and a lower high at 1.1250. Price sits near the 50% fib of the London leg at 1.1242, below EMA20, with the session low at 1.1236 just beneath.
Support: 1.1236, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1265
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1236 session low exposes the 1.1222 asian low and the base of the London leg
An M15 close back above the 1.1250 lower high and the 1.1265 double top invalidates the rejection read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC, ECB's Lane at 13:20 and ISM Services at 15:00 could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from London low, failed push above Asian high.
The post-election USD sell-off carried EURUSD from 1.1180 to the Asian high near 1.1262. London dipped to the 1.1222 london low before climbing to a 1.1265 session high after the in-line HICP. That push was rejected straight back to the 1.1245 swing low. Price sits at the 38.2% retracement of the London leg, just above EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.1245, 1.1238, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.1255, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1245 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain and exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1238
Reclaim of the 1.1255 minor pivot and a close above the 1.1265 session high negates the false-break read
ADP at 13:15 UTC and Lane at 13:20 UTC land early in the NY session and could materially shift this read
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC is a second volatility window; a loss of the 1.1222 london low would undo the London leg
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at highs · RSI 57 · price 1.12477
False break above Asian high, pulling back inside London range.
The post-election USD drop lifted EURUSD from 1.1180 to a 1.1263 Asian high. London dipped to the 1.1222 London low, then edged to a 1.1265 session high after the in-line HICP, but that false break above the Asian high was rejected. Price is at 1.1248 on the 38.2% fib of the London leg, just above the 1.1244 swing low, with RSI(14) near 57 and EMA20 flat beneath.
Support: 1.1244, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12625, 1.12647
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1265 session high negates the false break above the Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1244 swing low (near the 50% fib) exposes the 1.1222 London low
ADP 13:15 UTC, ECB's Lane 13:20 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
10:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 56 · price 1.12472
HL at 1.1222, failed push above Asian high.
The Democratic sweep knocked USD lower overnight, lifting EURUSD from the 1.1180 rally base to a 1.12625 Asian high. The London low at 1.1222 held near the 50% retrace of that rally. After the in-line HICP, price pushed to a 1.12647 session high, then slipped back under the Asian high, leaving a false break and a near double top. Price now sits on EMA20, just above the 1.1244 swing low.
Support: 1.1244, 1.1222, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.12647, 1.12625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12647 session high invalidates the false-break / double top read
Failure to hold the 1.1244 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1222 London low
Loss of the 1.1222 london low breaks the HL chain and puts the 1.1180 rally base back in focus
ADP 13:15 UTC, Lane 13:20 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
Higher-low chain in London testing Asian range top.
EUR/USD jumped from 1.1180 to the 1.1263 overnight high on the Democratic Congress sweep, then held a 1.1222–1.1263 Asian range. London has stacked higher lows off the 1.1222 Asian low along a rising trendline and is now pressing the overnight high mid-session, with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 1.1244, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.1263, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1263 overnight high breaks the Asian range top; the 1.1300 round number is the next reference above
Loss of the 1.1244 London HL breaks the rising trendline; the 38.2% retrace of the London leg sits near 1.1247
A second rejection at 1.1263 leaves price inside the range, with the 1.1222 Asian low as the floor
US ADP (13:15 UTC), ECB's Lane (13:20) and ISM Services (15:00) could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 1.12583
Higher lows from London low, capped at Asian high.
USD selling after the Democratic Congress sweep lifted EUR/USD from 1.1190 into a 1.1222–1.1263 Asian range. The London leg has built a higher-low chain off the 1.1222 london low and is testing the 1.1263 asian high a second time, with RSI(14) near 66 and the in-line HICP adding no fresh push.
Support: 1.1244, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.1263, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1263 asian high breaks the Asian range top, with the 1.1300 round number the next reference
A break of the 1.1244 swing low ends the London higher-low trendline sequence
Loss of the 1.1222 london low puts price back at the Asian range floor
US ADP at 13:15 UTC, ECB's Lane at 13:20 and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 1.1222 London low, retesting the 1.1263 Asian high.
USD selling on the Democratic midterm sweep lifted the pair from 1.1180 to a 1.1263 session high in Asia. London has built a higher-low chain off 1.1222 and is retesting that high while holding above the 1.1250 prior cap; the 38.2% of the London leg sits near 1.1247. RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR(14) about 10 pips.
Support: 1.1250, 1.1244, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.12627, 1.1280
What it said to watch
Eurozone HICP at 10:00 UTC (core f/c 2.5%) lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1263 session high opens 1.1280 as the next level
Failure back below the 1.1250 prior cap returns price to the Asian range
Break of the 1.1244 higher low breaks the London trendline; the 1.1222 London low is next below
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are USD-side risk during NY hours
09:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the Asian high · RSI 63 · price 1.12544
London higher-low chain off a swept Asian low; price coiling under the 1.1260-1.1263 cap.
The overnight USD selloff on the Democratic midterm sweep lifted EUR from 1.1180 to the Asian high at 1.1263. London opened with a sweep of the Asian low to the london low at 1.1222, right at the 50% fib of that leg, then built a higher low at 1.1237 and a swing low at 1.1244 back to a session high of 1.1260, just under the cap. RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched.
Support: 1.1244, 1.12368, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12596, 1.12625
What it said to watch
Eurozone HICP at 10:00 UTC (core f/c 2.5%) could break the 1.1260-1.1263 session high/asian high cap or unwind the London leg
M15 close above the 1.1263 asian high opens a new high for the window
Loss of the 1.1244 swing low and the higher low at 1.1237 breaks the London trendline support
A move back through the 1.1222 london low (50% fib) negates the sweep and the higher-low chain
ADP at 13:15 UTC and Lane at 13:20 UTC are follow-on risk for the NY session
09:31 UTC
Post-breakout range, grinding back to range top · RSI 60 · price 1.12506
1.1222–1.1263 range after overnight breakout; rising lows since London open.
Overnight USD selling on the Democratic midterm sweep lifted EURUSD from 1.1180 through the prior-day high to a 1.1263 Asian high. Price has ranged 1.1222–1.1263 since then. The London low at 1.1222 held near the 50% retracement of the overnight rally, and a rising trendline plus an intraday HL at 1.1244 have pushed price back under the London high at 1.1258, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.1244, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.1258, 1.1263
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC is the next catalyst for the 1.1222–1.1263 range
M15 close above the 1.1263 Asian high breaks the range top and opens the 1.1275–1.1280 area
Loss of the 1.1244 intraday HL and the trendline returns price to mid-range
Break of the 1.1222 London low exposes the 61.8% retracement of the overnight rally near 1.1211; US ADP at 13:15 UTC is the next risk after that
1.1222–1.1263 range since the Asia session spike; London higher lows under a 1.1258 cap.
The overnight rally on the post-midterm USD selloff ran from 1.1180 to the 1.1263 asia high. Price has ranged since, and the range low at 1.1222 held near the 50% fib after London probed below the Asian lows. London built higher lows from 1.1222, but a rejection at the 1.1258 london high into the PMIs leaves price mid-range at 1.1246, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.1237, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.1258, 1.1263
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (core f/c 2.5%) is the next test of the 1.1222–1.1263 range
M15 close above the 1.1263 asia high breaks the range top
Loss of the 1.1237 higher low and the London higher-lows trendline puts the 1.1222 range low and 50% fib back in focus
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ECB's Lane at 13:20 UTC during NY hours could reset the range
Range 1.1222–1.1263 after overnight impulse; higher lows since London open.
Overnight USD selling on the Democratic midterm sweep lifted the pair from 1.1180 to a 1.1263 session high. The Asian range has held since. London opened with a false break below the range at 1.1222, near the 50% fib of the overnight leg, which was quickly reclaimed. Price is now back at 1.1251, just under the 1.1255 cap and the 1.1259 lower high.
Support: 1.1237, 1.1222, 1.1201
Resistance: 1.1259, 1.1263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1263 session high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the 1.1237 swing low and the rising lows trendline returns focus to the 1.1222 london low
Break of 1.1222 exposes yesterday's prior high near 1.1201
Flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (core f/c 2.5%) can materially shift this read, with US ADP at 13:15 UTC following
Lower highs inside 1.1222–1.1263 Asian range; London low sweep reclaimed.
The Democratic midterm sweep lifted EURUSD from 1.1180 to the 1.1263 asian high. Price has since printed lower highs at 1.1259 and the 1.1247 london high. London open swept below the Asian low to the 1.1222 london low, near the 50% retrace of the overnight rally, then recovered above ema20 with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.1237, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12467, 1.12594, 1.12625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1247 london high reopens the 1.1259 lower high and 1.1263 asian high, which would break the lower-highs line
Failure to hold ema20 near 1.1237 puts the 1.1222 london low back in focus
Close below the 1.1222 london low loses the 50% retrace of the overnight rally and negates the sweep read
Eurozone PMIs from 08:55 UTC and flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read; US ADP follows at 13:15 UTC
1.1222–1.1263 range since the Asia rally; early London higher low.
The Democratic midterm sweep drove a USD-led 1.1180–1.1263 leg after the daily open. Since then price has ranged between the 1.1263 asian high and the 1.1222 asian low, which sits on the 50% fib of the midterm rally. Early London bounced to a 1.1247 london high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.12222, 1.12007
Resistance: 1.12467, 1.12625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1263 asian high breaks the range, with the 1.1250 psych level first in the way
Failure to hold the 1.1222 asian low and the 50% fib exposes the prior high at 1.1200
HCOB PMIs at 08:55–09:00 UTC and Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could resolve the range
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 1.1222–1.1263 after overnight spike, lower highs.
The Democratic midterm sweep hit USD overnight and lifted the pair from 1.1180 to a 1.1263 spike high. Since then it has been a consolidation with lower highs. The Frankfurt-hour dip to the 1.1222 pullback low held near the 50% retracement. Early London trades mid-range at 1.1239 under the 1.1245 lower high, RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1222, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1250, 1.1263
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read; PMIs due 08:55/09:00 UTC first
M15 close above the 1.1250 round number breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1263 spike high back in view
Holding the 38.2 fib at 1.1231 keeps price mid-range; failure there exposes the 1.1222 pullback low
Break below the 1.1222 pullback low opens a deeper retracement toward yesterday's prior high at 1.1202
US ADP at 13:15 UTC is the next USD risk after HICP
08:01 UTC
Post-spike consolidation, early London bounce · RSI 51 · price 1.12428
Lower highs under 1.1263, Asian low 1.1222 holding.
The Democratic sweep knocked the USD lower in the Asia session, lifting the pair from 1.1180 to a 1.1263 session high. Since then it has traded in a consolidation of lower highs, with the 1.1259 lower high capping and the Asian low at 1.1222 holding at the 50% retracement of the election rally. The early London bounce has taken price back to 1.1243, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1259, 1.1263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1259 lower high and the 1.1263 session high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1222 Asian low and 50% retracement exposes the 1.1200 round number
Eurozone PMIs from 08:15 UTC and flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0% y/y) could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior-day range, now a 1.1222–1.1263 range with lower highs.
The Asia session leg on the midterm-driven USD selloff ran from 1.1180 to the 1.1263 asian high, clearing the prior high at 1.1205. Since then price has held a 1.1222–1.1263 range with lower highs near 1.1240, and the range low sits on the 50% fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 44 and price is pinned at EMA20 ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 range low and 50% fib opens a return toward the 1.1205 prior high
Close above the 1.1240 lower high reopens the 1.1263 asian high
Eurozone PMIs from 08:15 UTC and flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0% y/y) could materially shift this read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC is the next USD-side catalyst for the range
The Asia rally on the Democratic Congress sweep ran from 1.1180 to the 1.1262 asia high. Two rejections there were followed by a chain of lower highs. Into London open, price is pressing the 1.1222 session low, which sits on the 50% retrace of the move, with RSI(14) near 38 and the 1.1240 swing high capping.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1214, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1250, 1.1262
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1222 session low confirms the double top and exposes the 1.1214 breakout area, then the 1.1206 prior high (Tuesday's range top).
A recovery above the 1.1240 swing high breaks the lower-highs line, putting 1.1250 psych and the 1.1262 asia high back in view.
HCOB PMIs at 08:15–09:00 UTC and Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read.
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are the next USD-side risk to the Asia rally.
Asian range 1.1224–1.1263 with lower highs onto a flat base.
Election-driven USD selling took EURUSD out of yesterday's range, from 1.1180 to the 1.1263 Asian high. Since then the Asian session has printed lower highs into a flat 1.1224 swing low. Into London open, price sits at the 38.2% retracement of the asian rally fib, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.12243, 1.12212, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12397, 1.1250, 1.12625
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1224 swing low exposes the 50% fib at 1.1221 and the prior high at 1.1206
M15 close above the 1.1240 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; 1.1250 round number and 1.1263 asian high sit above
HCOB PMIs 08:15–09:00 UTC and Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC is a second volatility window for this range
Lower highs below 1.1263 Asian high, holding 1.1224 swing low.
Asia broke yesterday's 1.1206 prior high as the USD sold off on the Democratic midterm sweep, topping at the 1.1263 Asian high before repeated rejections near 1.1260 left a chain of lower highs, the latest at 1.1240. Into the end of the Asia session, price is holding the 1.1224 swing low and sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally, with RSI(14) neutral at 47 and price below EMA20.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1221, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1250, 1.1263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 1.1221 and then the 1.1206 prior high
Close above the 1.1240 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens 1.1250 psych and the 1.1263 Asian high
Eurozone services PMIs from 08:15 UTC and flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC can reverse or extend the post-election USD move
Lower highs inside Asian range after a gap-up breakout.
USD selling on the Democratic midterm sweep lifted EUR/USD about 83 pips in early Asia, from the 1.1180 gap low to a 1.1263 session high, clearing the prior high at 1.1206. Lower highs at 1.1259 and 1.1240 have since pressed price back onto the 1.1224 Asian base into London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and price sits below EMA20.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1259, 1.1263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 asian base exposes the 50% fib near 1.1221, then the 1.1206 prior high
M15 close above the 1.1240 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1259 lower high and 1.1263 session high
HCOB PMIs 08:15–09:00 UTC and flash HICP 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%) could materially shift this read; US ADP follows at 13:15 UTC
06:31 UTC
Post-spike consolidation after Asia rally · RSI 54 · price 1.12311
1.1224–1.1263 range, lower highs since 01:45 UTC.
USD selling on the Democratic midterm sweep lifted EURUSD from the 1.1180 rollover low to an Asian high of 1.1263. Price has since held a 1.1224–1.1263 range, with three rejections near 1.1260 and a lower high at 1.1240. It now sits on the 38.2% fib at 1.1231 into London open, RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.12243, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12397, 1.12625
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 swing low exposes the 50% fib at 1.1221 and the 1.1200 round number
Close above the 1.1240 lower high reopens a test of the 1.1263 asian high and range top
Eurozone PMIs 08:15–09:00 UTC and flash HICP at 10:00 UTC could break the London session out of this range
US ADP at 13:15 UTC is the next USD driver for the NY session
06:16 UTC
Impulsive Asia uptrend, now pausing · RSI 47 · price 1.1237
Post-rally Asian range 1.1224–1.1262, slight lower highs.
USD selling on the Democratic midterm sweep lifted EUR/USD about 80 pips in the Asia session, from 1.1180 to the 1.1262 Asian high, and cleared yesterday's 1.1206 prior high. Price has since rotated inside a 1.1224–1.1262 range. The 1.1224 Asian low is holding near the 50% fib of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) neutral around 47 heading into London open.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1211, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.1262, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 asian low opens the 1.1211 swing low and 1.1206 prior high
M15 close above the 1.1262 asian high exposes the 1.1275 range ceil
Eurozone PMIs 08:15–09:00 UTC and flash HICP at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC is a risk to the USD-driven leg
06:01 UTC
Impulsive Asia rally, now pausing · RSI 46 · price 1.12328
Post-spike consolidation 1.1224–1.1263 with a lower high.
The Democratic midterm sweep drove an ~83-pip Asia session rally from 1.1180 to a 1.1263 asian high after a small gap at the open, clearing yesterday's 1.1206 prior high. Price has since held a 1.1224–1.1263 consolidation with a lower high at 1.1259 and sits near the 38.2% fib (1.1231) into London open. RSI(14) is near 46 and price is below EMA20.
Support: 1.12243, 1.1215, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12594, 1.12625, 1.1275
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1224 session low opens the 50% fib and the 1.1215 spike base, with the 1.1206 prior high beneath.
A reclaim of the 1.1259 lower high reopens the 1.1263 asian high and the 1.1275 ceiling flagged in the macro digest.
Eurozone PMIs at 08:15–09:00 GMT and flash HICP at 10:00 GMT (f/c 4.0%) could break the consolidation either way.
US ADP at 13:15 UTC (f/c 69K) is the next USD risk during NY hours.
Asia rally capped by a lower high; post-spike range broken lower.
USD softness after the Democratic House win drove an Asia session rally from 1.1180 through the prior high at 1.1206 to the asia high at 1.1263. A second rejection at the 1.1259 lower high then broke the 1.1235 range low. Price is now testing the 05:15 swing low at 1.1224, just above the 50% fib of the Asia rally and EMA50 near 1.1220, with RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1221, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1259, 1.1263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1221 50% fib exposes the prior high at 1.1206.
Recovery above the 1.1235 range low puts price back inside the post-spike range, with the lower high at 1.1259 and the asia high at 1.1263 above.
HCOB PMIs (08:15–09:00 GMT) and Eurozone flash HICP (10:00 GMT) land around the London open and could materially shift this read.
Asian range 1.1226–1.1263 after the midterm rally, price testing range low.
The Democratic House result drove an Asia-session rally from 1.1180 to a session high at 1.1263, clearing the prior high at 1.1206. Since then price has held a 1.1226–1.1263 range, capped by a range top at 1.1259. It is now back below the ema20 and pressing the range low at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.12262, 1.12212, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.12594, 1.12625
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1226 range low opens the 50% fib at 1.1221 and the prior high at 1.1206.
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.1240 keeps the range intact toward the 1.1259 range top and the 1.1263 session high.
HCOB PMIs at 08:15–09:00 GMT and Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 GMT could materially shift this read early in the London session.
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are the NY-session risk for the range.
1.1227–1.1260 range after Asia breakout above the prior-day high.
The Democratic House result knocked USD lower in the Asia session. EUR/USD broke yesterday's 1.1206 prior high and spiked from 1.1180 to a 1.1261 asian high, then settled into a range with a 1.1227 range low. A late-Asia rejection under the asian high has pulled price back to the 38.2% fib near 1.1231, just under the ema20 at 1.1235, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1211, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1227 range low exposes the 1.1211 swing low (61.8% fib) and the 1.1200 round number
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.1235 keeps the range intact; a close above the 1.1261 asian high breaks the range top
Eurozone PMIs from 08:15 GMT and flash HICP at 10:00 GMT (f/c 4.0%) in the London session could materially shift this read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are the next USD tests
Asia breakout leg, now compressing with higher lows under 1.1263.
Early US midterm tallies knocked the dollar in the Asia session. EURUSD rallied from the 1.1180 rollover low through Tuesday's London prior high at 1.1206 to an Asia high of 1.1263. Since then price has compressed above the 1.1227 pullback low, with a higher low at 1.1242 and two retests of the Asia high rejected; RSI(14) has cooled to about 61 and ATR is about 13 pips, two hours before the London open.
Support: 1.1242, 1.1227, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.1263, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1263 asia high ends the consolidation and exposes the 1.1275 range cap
Break of the higher-low trendline and 1.1242 turns focus to the 1.1227 pullback low and the 38.2–50% fib zone
Loss of 1.1227 would put the 1.1206 prior high, now support, back in play
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 GMT (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) and PMIs from 08:15 GMT could materially shift this read
Senate race calls and US ADP at 13:15 UTC are further USD-side risk
04:45 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 62 · price 1.12592
Higher lows above 38.2% fib after Asia breakout.
The Asia session ran from 1.1180 to a 1.1263 session high as early Democratic midterm gains weighed on USD, clearing Tuesday's 1.1206 prior high. Pullbacks held near the 38.2% fib, with a pullback low at 1.1227 and a higher low at 1.1235. The latest bar closed at 1.1259 to retest the session high, and RSI(14) sits near 62.
Support: 1.12349, 1.12268, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12625, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1263 session high exposes the 1.1275 range top
Break below the 1.1235 higher low and 1.1227 pullback low unwinds the higher-low trendline
Loss of 1.1206 prior high returns price to Tuesday's range
EZ PMIs from 08:15 GMT and flash HICP at 10:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Senate race calls through the session are a live USD risk
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, compressing after Asia spike · RSI 59 · price 1.12462
Pennant after break of Tuesday range; lower highs vs higher lows.
Asia session broke above Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range as early midterm calls knocked USD, spiking to a 1.1263 session high. Price is now compressing into a pennant: a lower high at 1.1254 and higher lows at 1.1227, 1.1235 and 1.1243, with pullbacks holding the 23.6–38.2% fib zone of the 1.1180–1.1263 leg and RSI(14) cooled to ~59.
Support: 1.1243, 1.1235, 1.1227
Resistance: 1.1254, 1.1263, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1254 lower high breaks the pennant, with the 1.1263 session high and the 1.1275 range cap overhead
Close below the 1.1243 higher low and then the 1.1235 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.1227 pullback low
Eurozone PMIs from 08:15 GMT and flash HICP at 10:00 GMT (f/c 4.0%) could materially shift this read around London open
Senate race calls through the day; a split-Congress result would undercut the USD-softness driver behind the spike
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below Asia high · RSI 61 · price 1.12449
Impulsive Asia leg into pennant: lower highs vs higher lows.
Early midterm tallies hit USD, and the Asia session ran about 83 pips from the 1.1180 post-open low to the 1.1263 Asia high. Price is now coiling late in Asia between a lower high at 1.1258 and a higher low at the 1.1235 swing low. Pullbacks have held above the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally (~1.1231) and the 1.1227 pullback low, and RSI(14) is neutral near 61.
Support: 1.12349, 1.12268, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12581, 1.12625, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1235 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.1227 pullback low and then the 1.1206 prior high (Tuesday's London high).
M15 close above the 1.1258 lower high and the 1.1263 Asia high resolves the pennant higher; the 1.1275 range cap is the next level above.
Eurozone PMIs from 08:15 GMT and flash HICP at 10:00 GMT (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read.
Senate race calls: a split-Congress outcome could unwind the USD-driven Asia leg.
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after impulsive leg · RSI 63 · price 1.12515
Asia breakout above prior high, now a tight 1.1227–1.1263 consolidation.
Asia session broke Tuesday's 1.1206 prior high as midterm tallies weighed on USD, running from 1.1180 to a 1.1263 session high. Price is now compressing between higher lows at the 1.1227 pullback low and 1.1235 swing low and a 1.1258 lower high, RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 1.12349, 1.12268, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12581, 1.12625, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1263 session high puts the 1.1275 range ceil in play
Break below the 1.1227 pullback low undercuts the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1206 prior high
Eurozone services PMIs from 08:15 GMT and flash HICP at 10:00 GMT (f/c 4.0%) could materially shift this read
Senate calls in the midterm count remain a USD volatility source through London open
Asia session drove an ~80-pip leg from the 1.1180 rollover low through Tuesday's 1.1206 prior high to a 1.1263 session high as early midterm counts weighed on USD. Since then price has carved a lower high at 1.1258 and slipped to 1.1239. The 1.1227 swing low is holding near the 38.2% fib of the leg.
Support: 1.12268, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12581, 1.12625
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1227 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 1.1221 and the 1.1206 prior high
Reclaim of the 1.1258 lower high and 1.1263 session high would resume the impulse
EZ PMIs from 08:15 GMT and flash HICP at 10:00 GMT, plus Senate calls, could reset the Asian range
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after Asia spike · RSI 66 · price 1.12495
Asia breakout above prior high, pullback held, lower high forming below session high.
Asia session cleared Tuesday's 1.1206 prior high as early midterm tallies hit the USD, running about 83 pips from the 1.1180 rollover low to a 1.1263 session high. The 1.1227 pullback low held near the 38.2% fib, and price is now coiling under a 1.1258 lower high. RSI(14) has cooled to about 66 after running overbought at the peak.
Support: 1.12268, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12581, 1.12625, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1263 session high opens the 1.1275 range cap flagged as the Scotiabank ceiling
Failure to hold the 1.1227 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 1.1221, the rising trendline and the 1.1206 prior high
EZ PMIs at 08:55 UTC and flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could reset the London read
Senate calls or a closer-than-expected midterm count could unwind the Asia USD drop
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 72 · price 1.12551
HH/HL chain off the 1.1180 low; Asia broke the London high.
The Asia rally followed USD weakness on early midterm tallies. It lifted price from 1.1180 through Tuesday's London prior high at 1.1206 to a session high of 1.1263. The 02:00 UTC pullback held a swing low at 1.1227, which is about a 38–50% retrace of the move, and price is back near the high with RSI(14) at ~72.
Support: 1.12268, 1.12062, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12625, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1263 session high opens the path to the 1.1275 ceiling flagged in range commentary
Break below the 1.1227 swing low and the rising trendline ends the HL chain and exposes the 1.1206 prior high, then the 1.1200 round number
Eurozone PMIs at 08:55 UTC and flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read
Midterm House/Senate calls during Asia and London; a split outcome would test the Asia rally gains
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 71 · price 1.12508
Asia range break above prior high, higher low at 1.1227.
Asia session rallied about 80 pips from the 1.1180 rollover low on Democratic midterm gains. It cleared Tuesday's 1.1206 prior high, then met rejection at the 1.1263 Asia high, and the pullback held a higher low at 1.1227 between the 38.2% and 50% of the Asia rally fib. Price is grinding back under the 1.1254 micro high with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 1.12268, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.1254, 1.12625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1263 Asia high extends the breakout leg
Break below the 1.1227 higher low and the Asia trendline shifts structure to a deeper retest of the 1.1206 prior high
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read
Rolling US midterm calls: a split Congress would undercut the USD-driven leg
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below Asia high · RSI 71 · price 1.12475
Asia breakout above prior high, higher low at 1.1227.
Early midterm tallies hit the USD in the Asia session. EUR/USD cleared the prior high at 1.1206 and ran to an Asia high of 1.1262, then the pullback found a swing low at 1.1227, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 1.1180–1.1262 leg. Price is mid-Asia near 1.1248 with RSI(14) around 71, firm but not extreme.
Support: 1.12268, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12625, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1227 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the prior high at 1.1206
A push through the 1.1262 Asia high puts the 1.1275 range cap in play
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) and further midterm calls could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after spike · RSI 64 · price 1.12354
Asia breakout above prior-day high, rejection at the session high, higher low forming.
Early midterm tallies hit the USD in the Asia session, and EURUSD cleared Tuesday's 1.1206 prior high before a 33-pip rejection off the 1.1262 session high. The pullback low at 1.1227 sits near the 38.2% fib of the 1.1180–1.1262 leg, price is pinned to the rising trendline, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 64.
Support: 1.12268, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12416, 1.12625
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1227 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and opens the 50% fib near 1.1221
A move back below the 1.1206 prior high would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
An M15 close above the 1.1242 lower high reopens the 1.1262 session high
EZ Services PMI at 08:55 UTC and flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read
Further midterm results through the session remain a two-way USD risk
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, first sharp pullback · RSI 66 · price 1.12394
Asia breakout above prior-day high, HH/HL chain intact.
Early Asia session pushed EUR/USD through the prior high at 1.1206 as midterm tallies showing Democratic gains weighed on the USD, running to a session high at 1.12625. The 01:45 UTC bar rejected about 33 pips to 1.1229, tagging the fib 38.2 of the rally, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 66. Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range sits below.
Support: 1.1230, 1.1221, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.12625, 1.1275
What it said to watch
A close below the fib 38.2 at 1.1230 brings the fib 50 near 1.1221 and the rally trendline into play
Loss of the prior high at 1.1206 would put price back inside Tuesday's range and turn the breakout into a false break
A reclaim of the 1.12625 session high opens the 1.1275 range cap
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) and PMIs from 08:55 UTC could materially shift this read
Further midterm calls: a split Congress would unwind part of the USD discount behind this move
Impulsive Asia rally, higher highs through prior-day high.
Asia session ran about 80 pips off the 1.1180 rollover low as midterm results weighed on the USD, clearing the prior high at 1.1206 and printing a session high at 1.12625. RSI(14) near 81 is stretched. The range top at 1.1275 sits about 18 pips overhead, roughly two bars of ATR.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1206, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.12625, 1.1275, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Pullback through the fib 38.2 at 1.1231 and the Asia rally trendline would mark the first break in the higher-low chain
A retest of the prior high at 1.1206 that holds keeps the breakout intact; a close back below it reads as a false break
Close above the range top at 1.1275 opens the 1.1300 round number
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read
Senate race calls and US ADP at 13:15 UTC are the main USD swing risks
Asia breakout above prior-day high, HH/HL chain from 1.1180.
Asia session added roughly 70 pips off the 1.1180 post-open low as midterm results weighed on USD, clearing the prior high at 1.1206 and the 1.1224 break level before printing a session high at 1.1250. RSI(14) near 85 is stretched, and the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally sits at the 1.1224 break level. A higher low held at the 1.1211 pullback low and defines the support trendline.
Support: 1.12238, 1.12114, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12501, 1.1275
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1224 break level exposes the 1.1211 pullback low and the prior high at 1.1206, the 61.8% fib
Acceptance above the 1.1250 session high opens the 1.1275 range top
Senate race calls through Asia could reverse the USD leg
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the support trendline ends the HH/HL chain
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended in early Asia · RSI 75 · price 1.12336
HH/HL chain since the rollover low, above yesterday's London high.
EUR/USD rallied about 58 pips off the 1.1180 rollover low in early Asia session as US midterm results came in. The move cleared yesterday's London prior high at 1.1206 and the 1.1200 pivot, and printed a session high at 1.1238 with RSI(14) near 75. Each pullback has held a higher low, the latest being the 1.1211 swing low.
Support: 1.12114, 1.12062, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12376, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1211 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Return below the 1.1206 prior high and 1.1200 pivot would mark the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 1.1238 session high opens the 1.1250 round number
Senate race calls overnight could reverse the move quickly
EZ PMIs 08:15–09:00 UTC and flash HICP at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior-day high; higher lows since the rollover low.
Early Asia session: EUR/USD rallied about 44 pips off the 1.1180 post-rollover low as midterm results landed. It cleared the 1.1200 psych and Tuesday's London-open prior high at 1.1206, then printed a session high at 1.1224. The first pullback held at 1.1211, with RSI(14) cooling to about 69 from the impulse.
Support: 1.12114, 1.12062, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12238, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1206 prior high (38.2% fib) returns price to Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range
Clean break of the 1.1224 session high opens the 1.1235 recent high
Loss of the 1.1211 pullback low exposes the 1.1200 psych and the 50% fib
Further Senate race calls and HCOB PMIs from 08:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Broke above prior-day 1.1175–1.1206 range, higher low at 1.1199.
Midterm results drove a 44-pip leg in early Asia from the 1.1180 session low to 1.1224, clearing the 1.1206 prior high and the top of yesterday's range. RSI(14) is near 71, and the last two bars have stalled just under the session high. The 38.2% retracement of the rally sits at the 1.1206 prior high.
Support: 1.12062, 1.1200, 1.11799
Resistance: 1.12238, 1.1235
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1206 prior high keeps the range break intact; a close back below returns price to the 1.1175–1.1206 range
A break of the 1.1200 round number and the rally trendline exposes the 1.1180 session low
Clearing the 1.1224 session high brings the Monday high near 1.1235 into play
Late Senate calls and the 08:15–09:00 UTC euro-area PMIs could materially shift this read, with flash HICP due at 10:00 UTC
Breakout above yesterday's 1.1206 high, higher lows since 1.1180.
EUR/USD gained about 43 pips in early Asia session as US midterm results landed, rising from the 1.1180 session low through yesterday's London prior high at 1.1206. The 1.1199 swing low and the rally trendline held the first pullback, the move now pressing the 1.1223 session high with RSI(14) at 77, short-term hot. Monday's 1.1235 high is the next reference above.
Support: 1.12062, 1.11986, 1.11799
Resistance: 1.12226, 1.1235
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1206 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
An M15 close below the 1.1199 swing low and the rally trendline breaks the higher-low chain
A close above the 1.1235 monday high extends the breakout toward the range ceiling at 1.1275
Senate race calls overnight could materially shift this read, with a Republican hold the USD-positive surprise
Eurozone services and composite PMIs from 08:15 UTC, ahead of flash HICP at 10:00 UTC
Break of the London high after rollover low, now retesting.
Early Asia trade on midterm results lifted EUR/USD about 29 pips from the 1.1180 rollover low, through the 1.1206 London high to a 1.1209 session high. RSI(14) is near 67. Price is now retesting the london high, with the 1.12 pivot and the 38.2% fib of the rollover rally just below.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1209
What it said to watch
M15 closes back below the 1.12 pivot and 38.2% fib (~1.1198) would mark a false break and put the rollover low at 1.1180 back in focus
A close above the 1.1209 session high extends the breakout toward the 1.1220 area
Day low at 1.1175 held three times on Tuesday; a break there undercuts the whole rally
Senate call overnight, EZ PMIs 08:15–09:00 UTC and flash HICP 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Early-Asia break above the 1.1175–1.1206 24h range.
Midterm results lifted EUR/USD about 29 pips off the 1.1180 post-rollover swing low in early Asia. Price cleared 1.1200 psych and the London high at 1.1206, then printed a 24h high at 1.12085; RSI(14) is near 71, firm but not stretched. Tuesday's session range was floored three times at the 1.1175 24h low, including the JOLTS-driven drop during NY hours.
Support: 1.12062, 1.1200, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.12085, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1200 psych would turn the move into a false break back into Tuesday's range
Holding the london high at 1.1206 keeps the range break intact; acceptance above the 24h high puts the 1.1235 monday high in view
Senate call from the midterm count could reverse this leg; EZ PMIs 08:15–09:00 UTC lead into flash HICP at 10:00 UTC
Loss of the 1.1180 swing low would erase the post-rollover leg and expose the 1.1175 24h low
00:01 UTC
Range break higher on late-window spike · RSI 67 · price 1.12038
Breakout above 24h 1.1175–1.1206 range, first test of 1.1200 from above.
Midterm results lifted EUR/USD out of the day's 1.1175–1.1206 range in the final hour after NY close. The spike high at 1.12085 cleared the London high, and the last bar closed at 1.1204, just above the 1.1200 round number. RSI(14) is near 67 and not stretched, while the day low at 1.1175 held twice through London and NY.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11943, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.12062, 1.12085, 1.1220
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.1200 round number would turn the London high break into a false break
A pullback that holds the fib 50% of the midterm leg near 1.1194 keeps the breakout structure intact
Acceptance above the 1.12085 spike high opens the path to the 1.1220 psych level
The Senate call overnight, then Eurozone PMIs at 08:15–09:00 UTC and flash HICP at 10:00 UTC, could materially shift this read