22:02 UTC
Downtrend stalled, basing above 1.1100 · RSI 52 · price 1.12585
Five-week range; double bottom testing neckline.
September's 550-pip slide from 1.1654 stalled in early October. Since then EUR/USD has held a five-week range between the 1.1104 base low and the 1.1276 neckline, and the 1.1113 and 1.1104 October lows form a double bottom. Wednesday's 67-pip rally on post-midterm USD selling lifted price back above the ema20 near 1.1221 and into the neckline zone again. The falling ema50 near 1.1313, which sits on the 38.2% of the Sep-Oct fib, still frames the broader downtrend.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1313, 1.1379
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the 1.1276 neckline confirms the double bottom and opens the ema50 near 1.1313, then the 50% fib at 1.1379
- Another rejection at the neckline keeps the range intact. A close back below the ema20 at 1.1221 shifts focus to the 1.1104 base low
- A daily close below the 1.1104 base low invalidates the double bottom and resumes the downtrend
- Lagarde (Thu 12:00 and 16:00 UTC) and Friday's US NFP (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read