EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 51 · price 1.12295
Higher lows since Monday; Wednesday breakout retracing toward the 61.8% level.
EUR/USD has carved higher lows since the weekly open at 1.1153, and Wednesday's Asia-session break above the Monday high at 1.1237 came as USD sold off on the Democratic midterm sweep. The push to a week high of 1.1273 into the London-NY transition printed RSI(14) near 67 against 77 on the first spike, a bearish divergence. The ADP beat then drove a NY-hours pullback to the 1.1213 ny low, about 64% of the Wednesday impulse. Price now sits a touch below EMA(20) at 1.1231 and above EMA(50) at 1.1218, with the NY bounce capped at the mon high.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1206, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1263, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1237 mon high reopens the 1.1263 asia high and the 1.1273 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1213 ny low and the 1.1206 tue high points to a false break back into the Monday–Tuesday range
A break of the weekly higher lows trendline near 1.1197, then the 1.1175 tue low, would undermine the uptrend read
A close above the 1.1273 week high would negate the bearish RSI divergence
Lagarde (Thu 12:00 and 16:00 UTC) and US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Up-leg from midweek breakout, pulling back · RSI 48 · price 1.1223
Wednesday range break higher, retracing toward the breakout zone.
EUR/USD broke out of Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range in the Asia session on Wednesday as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD. The move extended to a week high of 1.1273 into the London-NY transition. During NY hours price gave back about two-thirds of that Wednesday leg as the ADP beat helped the dollar recover. The NY low at 1.1213 sits on the 61.8% fib and EMA(50), with price now just below EMA(20) and the Monday high at 1.1237, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~48 from high-60s readings.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1200 round number puts price back inside Tuesday's range and turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1175 Tuesday low would erase the midweek leg entirely
Recovery above the 1.1237 Monday high reopens the 1.1273 week high, the base of the 1.1250–1.1275 neckline zone
Lagarde (Thu 12:00 and 16:00 UTC) and US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Uptrend this week, NY pullback testing support · RSI 48 · price 1.12191
Higher lows since Sunday open; breakout leg retracing to 61.8%.
USD selling after the Democrats' midterm sweep lifted EUR/USD off the 1.1175 Tuesday low late Tuesday and through the Asia session. The move cleared the Monday high and extended to a 1.1273 week high at the London-NY transition. The NY session then unwound about 60 pips as the ADP beat cushioned the dollar, with the pullback stalling at the 61.8% fib of the week impulse near 1.1213, where EMA(50) also sits. Two NY bounces have capped at the 1.1239 Monday high, price is back below EMA(20) at 1.1231, and RSI(14) has eased to 48 from around 70.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1213 (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.1200 round number, the top of Tuesday's range
Failure to hold 1.1200 shifts focus to the 1.1175 Tuesday low and the week higher lows line
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 1.1239 Monday high reopens a test of the 1.1273 week high and the 1.1270-1.1275 neckline area
Lagarde (Thu 12:00/16:00 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
Higher lows since Sunday; 1.1213–1.1273 post-spike range.
Wednesday's Asia session drove the week's dominant leg. Broad USD selling after the Democrats' midterm sweep pushed a 93-pip impulse from 1.1180 through Monday's 1.1237 high, and London then pressed it to a 1.1273 week high, with supply capping repeatedly at the 1.1265 asia high. Resilient US data during NY hours knocked price to a 1.1213 NY low, just through the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday impulse. It has since bounced back onto the EMA(20) near 1.1234, with RSI(14) cooling to 53 from near 70 while the higher lows since Sunday's open stay intact.
Support: 1.1234, 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1265 asia high reopens the 1.1273 week high and the 1.1275 neckline zone
Failure to hold the 1.1213 NY low exposes the 1.1200 round number pivot and puts the Wednesday breakout at risk
Repeated closes below the EMA(20) at 1.1234 would extend the post-spike consolidation
Lagarde (Thu 12:00/16:00 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Impulsive up-leg, retracing from week high · RSI 43 · price 1.1219
Breakout above Tuesday's range, NY reversal into 61.8% fib.
After Monday's London push to the 1.1237 Monday high faded and Tuesday compressed between 1.1175 and 1.1206, the post-midterm USD selloff drove a 93-pip impulse from Asia into a 1.1273 week high, just inside the 1.1250-1.1270 neckline zone. That high drew a rejection from the first hour of NY, breaking Wednesday's rising trendline. The pullback has since reached 1.1213, near the 61.8% fib of the leg, with price now below EMA20 (~1.1232) and sitting on EMA50. RSI(14) has rolled from the low 70s to the low 40s.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1232, 1.1237, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1200 round number puts price back inside Tuesday's range and negates the breakout read
Holding the fib 61.8 zone at 1.1213 and reclaiming EMA20 / Monday high at 1.1237 restores the up-leg structure
A second failure near the 1.1273 week high would mark a lower high under the neckline
Lagarde Thu 12:00 and 16:00 GMT, with EZ PPI at 10:00, could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 GMT and NFP Fri 13:30 GMT are the USD-side risk for the next sessions
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 52 · price 1.1234
Tuesday range break, higher high at 1.1273, NY retrace to 38.2%.
After a tight range on Tuesday between the 1.1175 tue low and 1.1206 tue high, EUR/USD broke out in the Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD, and London extended the move to a 1.1273 week high. NY hours have pared about 40 pips as the ADP beat cooled the USD selloff, breaking the wed rising line and pulling price back to the 38.2% retrace of Wednesday's impulse. Price now sits on EMA(20) at 1.1235, with EMA(50) at 1.1216 below. RSI(14) peaked near 69 on the push to 1.1273, under its 76 high from the Asia breakout, a bearish divergence against the higher price high.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1206, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1273, 1.1280
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1222 london low, which is near the 50% retrace, exposes the tue high at 1.1206 and the EMA(50)
A move back below the 1.1175 tue low would fully unwind the Wednesday breakout
Recovery through the 1.1273 week high and the 1.1280 4-wk high would negate the bearish RSI divergence
EZ PPI (Thu 10:00 GMT) and Lagarde (12:00/16:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 GMT) are a further risk to this read
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading at the week high · RSI 58 · price 1.12449
EUR/USD broke out of Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range in Wednesday's Asia session as USD sold off on the Democratic midterm sweep, running to 1.1263 before London held a 1.1222–1.1265 consolidation. The first hour of NY set a week high at 1.1273 on a lower RSI(14) peak than the Asia high, a bearish divergence. Price has since eased back under the 1.1250 neckline and the higher-low trendline after the ADP beat, with EMA(20), the Monday high and the 38.2% fib of the midterm leg converging at 1.1237.
Support: 1.1237, 1.1222, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1237 Monday high / EMA(20) puts the 1.1222 pullback low and 50% fib near 1.1226 in play
Recovery through the 1.1250 neckline and a close above the 1.1273 week high would negate the bearish divergence
Loss of the 1.1200 round number returns price into Tuesday's range and unwinds the midterm breakout
Lagarde (Thu 12:00/16:00 UTC) and US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) ahead of Friday's NFP could materially shift this read
Range break Wednesday, higher lows below week high.
The week opened at 1.1153. Monday's London push to 1.1237 faded back into a 1.1175–1.1206 Tuesday range, and the midterm-driven USD selloff broke that range top during Wednesday's Asia session, clearing Monday's high. Since then the impulse has printed higher lows at the 1.1222 pullback low and at 1.1236, and set a week high at 1.1273 into the NY open, just shy of the 1.1280 neckline. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), but RSI(14) near 66 sits below its reading at the Asia spike, a bearish divergence as bar ranges narrow.
Support: 1.12366, 1.12222, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12728, 1.1280
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8): a firm print extends the USD recovery and could test the Wednesday higher lows
An H1 close above the 1.1280 neckline clears the four-week high and invalidates the divergence read
An H1 close back below the Monday high at 1.1237 (38.2% of Wednesday's impulse) breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1222 pullback low
A loss of 1.1222 opens a move back toward Tuesday's 1.1206 range top
Lagarde (Thu 12:00/16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
EUR/USD broke out of Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range in Wednesday's Asia session as the USD sold off on the US midterm result. It cleared Monday's 1.1237 high and built higher lows through London to a week high at 1.1270 into the London-NY transition, roughly 110 pips above the weekly open. Price sits well clear of EMA(20) near 1.1234 after a London flag held the 1.1222 pullback low, but RSI(14) near 69 is below its ~76 reading on the first spike, a bearish divergence just under the 1.1280 four-week high.
Support: 1.1234, 1.1222, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.1270, 1.1280
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8): a print above ~55.5 could revive the USD and test the 1.1222 pullback low; a print below ~54 adds pressure on the 1.1280 four-week high
An H1 close above the 1.1280 four-week high would leave the bearish RSI divergence unconfirmed
A close below the 1.1222 pullback low (50% fib) breaks the higher lows sequence and brings the 1.1206 Tuesday high back into play
ECB Lane at 13:20 UTC today and Lagarde Thursday 12:00/16:00 UTC could shift the EUR side of the read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after breakout · RSI 68 · price 1.12534
Higher highs since Monday's open; post-breakout range 1.1222–1.1265 above Monday high.
The broad USD selloff after the Democratic midterm sweep drove a near 80-pip impulse from the tuesday low area into the Asia session, clearing the Monday high at 1.1237 and the 1.1175–1.1206 Tuesday range. Since then price has held a 1.1222–1.1265 band, with the Asia-hours dip stalling at the 50% fib of the move and London printing a marginal new week high at 1.1265. RSI(14) is near 68 and price is holding above a rising EMA(20) near 1.1231, so the post-breakout pause has so far been shallow.
Support: 1.1237, 1.1222, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1280, 1.1300
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ECB Lane speaks at 13:20 UTC
H1 close back below the monday high at 1.1237 puts the breakout under retest
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 1.1222 would deepen the pullback toward the tuesday low at 1.1175
H1 close above the week high at 1.1265 opens the path to the 4-week high near 1.1280 and the 1.1300 round number
Impulse breakout above Monday high, then 1.1222–1.1265 consolidation.
Monday's London spike to 1.1237 faded and Tuesday stayed in a 1.1175–1.1206 range. During Wednesday's Asia session, USD selling after the Democratic midterm sweep lifted EUR/USD through the Monday high. Since then price has held a 1.1222–1.1265 consolidation above EMA(20), with the range low sitting on the 50% retrace of the Wednesday impulse. The London push to a fresh week high at 1.1265 came with a lower RSI(14) reading than the Asia spike, a mild bearish divergence while the 4-week high near 1.1280 caps the range overhead.
Support: 1.12366, 1.1228, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12647, 1.1280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1265 week high exposes the 1.1280 4-week high
Failure to hold the 1.1222 range low (50% fib) breaks the rising lows and reopens the 1.1200 area
Price slipping back under the Monday high and EMA(20) would show the breakout losing traction
US ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB's Lane at 13:20 UTC on the 4% HICP print adds event risk for EUR
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 72 · price 1.12586
Range break, higher lows, retesting week high.
EUR/USD broke out of Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range during Wednesday's Asia session after the Democratic Congress sweep pulled down US yields and the USD, running from 1.1180 to a 1.1263 week high in three bars. London's pullback held the 1.1222 london low, near the 50% of the election leg fib and just below the 1.1237 monday high, and price is now pressing the week high again with RSI(14) near 72, in overbought territory. The 1.1250 psych level, cited as a cap earlier, has turned into intraday support through the London session.
Support: 1.1250, 1.12366, 1.12222
Resistance: 1.12627, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1263 week high opens the path to the 1.1300 round number; a second rejection there would leave a double-top shape
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC: firm prints could unwind part of the election move, soft prints would extend it
ECB's Lane at 13:20 UTC on headline vs core HICP could shift the EUR side of the read
Close back below the 1.1250 psych level puts the 1.1237 monday high back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.1222 london low breaks the rising support of higher lows and points to a deeper retrace of the election leg
Asia-session breakout from Tuesday range, holding above Monday high.
EURUSD broke out of Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1200 range during the Asia session as early US midterm results weighed on the USD, and printed a week high at 1.12625 before stalling. The London-open pullback found 1.1222, where EMA(20) and the 50% retracement of the Asia impulse converge, and recovered back above Monday's high at 1.1237. RSI(14) has eased from overbought to the high 60s, and slightly lower highs at 1.1258–1.1263 are compressing price above the Monday high and EMA20 band.
Support: 1.12366, 1.1222, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12625
What it said to watch
Eurozone HICP at 10:00 UTC, core vs 2.5% f/c, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.12625 week high breaks the lower-highs cap and opens 1.1280
H1 close back below 1.1222 (ema20 / 50% fib) breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1200 range top, then the 1.11748 tuesday low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are the USD-side risk to the post-election move
Breakout above Tuesday's range, now consolidating under 1.1263.
EUR/USD broke out of Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range during the Asia session as US midterm results showed a Democratic sweep and knocked the USD lower, spiking to a week high of 1.1263. Two tests of that high were rejected, and price has since held a 1.1222–1.1260 band. Dips found buyers near the 50% fib of the election rally, with EMA(20) rising just beneath and RSI(14) easing from the mid-70s to the mid-60s. The week's higher lows from Monday's 1.1149 open remain intact.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1206, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1263, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC: a soft core print could drag price back toward the 1.1206 range top
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
H1 close above the 1.1263 week high opens the 1.1300 round number
H1 close back below the 1.1206 range top would turn the breakout into a false break, exposing the 1.1175 Tuesday low
Loss of the 50% fib at 1.1222 alongside EMA(20) would mark the first lower low since the spike
Asia breakout above Tuesday range, lower highs since week high.
EUR/USD broke out of Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range in the Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD. The move spiked to a week high of 1.1263, then a run of lower highs pulled price back under the Monday high at 1.1237. Price now sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday impulse near 1.1231, with the pullback low at 1.1224 and the rising ema20 near 1.1216 underneath, while RSI(14) has cooled into the low 60s and the weekly higher lows from Monday's 1.1149 base stay intact.
Support: 1.12243, 1.1216, 1.12062
Resistance: 1.12366, 1.12625
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the monday high at 1.1237 reopens the 1.1258–1.1263 week high zone
Loss of the 1.1224 pullback low and the ema20 near 1.1216 exposes the 50–61.8% fib band at 1.1221–1.1212 and the Tuesday high at 1.1206
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0% y/y, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are the USD-side tests of the post-election breakout
Break of the weekly higher lows trendline near 1.1180 would undo the week's structure
07:01 UTC
Uptrend after Asia breakout, momentum cooling · RSI 64 · price 1.1236
Range break above Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1200 box; pullback retesting Monday high.
Wednesday's Asia session produced the week's dominant move. USD selling after the Democratic midterm sweep lifted EUR/USD out of Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1200 range and through Monday's lower-highs line, to a week high at 1.1263. Since then, highs have stepped lower and price has slipped back to retest the monday high at 1.1237, with the 1.1224 swing low holding just under the 38.2% fib of the Asia breakout. RSI(14) has cooled to about 64 from overbought, and price still sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.1224, 1.1200, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1263
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1224 swing low opens a deeper retest of the 1.1200 range top
Loss of the Tuesday low at 1.1175 would negate the breakout and return price to the prior range
H1 close above the 1.1263 week high reopens the 1.1275–1.1280 area
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC test whether the post-election USD move holds
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after Asia breakout · RSI 65 · price 1.12324
Monday-Tuesday range broken higher; retest of monday high.
After Monday's London push to 1.1237 (monday high), EUR/USD spent Monday and Tuesday in a 1.1175–1.1237 range above a rising trendline of higher lows from the weekly open. The Democratic midterm sweep hit USD in the Asia session and lifted price from 1.1180 to a week high at 1.1263. A lower high at 1.1259 has since pulled it back to 1.1232, near the monday high and the 38.2% fib of the overnight impulse. RSI(14) has eased into the mid-60s, and ATR has expanded to roughly 16 pips from single digits on Tuesday.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1206, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1263, 1.1275
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1206 tuesday high (near the ema20 at 1.1212) would put price back inside Tuesday's range and weaken the breakout read
Reclaim of the 1.1237 monday high and a close above the 1.1263 week high would open the 1.1275 range top
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 GMT (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%): a miss could drag price back toward the tuesday low at 1.1175
US ADP at 13:15 and ISM Services at 15:00 GMT could revive USD and test the higher-low trendline
Higher lows since Thursday; Mon–Tue 1.1175–1.1237 range broken higher.
Wednesday's Asia session broke the 1.1175–1.1237 range that held through Monday and Tuesday. Early US midterm tallies knocked the dollar, and EUR/USD printed a week high at the Asia high of 1.12625. Price sits well clear of EMA(20) near 1.1212 with RSI(14) around 72, overbought after a sequence of higher lows from Thursday's 1.1104 trough. The former Monday high at 1.1237 is the first level a pullback would test, with the 50–61.8% fib zone of the Asia leg (1.1221–1.1212) overlapping the ema20.
Support: 1.12366, 1.1212, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12625, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the Monday high at 1.1237 would mark the Asia move as a false break and return price to the range
A sustained push through the Asia high at 1.12625 opens the 1.1300 round number
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 GMT (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) and US ADP/ISM Services later today could materially shift this read; a miss echoing Friday's national CPI carries the larger downside reaction
Failure to hold the range low at 1.1175 would break the higher-lows sequence
Senate race calls through Wednesday: a split Congress would undercut the dollar-softness driver behind the breakout
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after Asia breakout · RSI 76 · price 1.1255
Range break above Monday high; higher lows since Thursday.
EUR/USD broke out of the 1.1175–1.1237 range that had contained price since Monday's London-session high. It rallied roughly 80 pips through the Asia session as early midterm tallies weighed on the dollar, printing a week high at 1.1263 just below the 1.1275 ceiling. Price is stretched well above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 76, overbought after the impulse. Monday high at 1.1237 is the first retest level, with Tuesday low at 1.1175 anchoring the higher lows in place since Thursday.
Support: 1.1237, 1.1200, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1263, 1.1275
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 GMT (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%); a miss like Friday's national print could unwind the breakout.
H1 close back below the Monday high at 1.1237 would turn the range break into a false break.
Clearance of the week high at 1.1263 and the 1.1275 ceiling opens the 1.1300 area.
A pullback holding the 1.1200 round number, near the 61.8% of the breakout fib, keeps the higher lows intact.
Midterm Senate calls and US ADP at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read.
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after Asia breakout · RSI 73 · price 1.12404
Range break above 1.1237 with higher lows since Friday.
EUR/USD spent Monday and Tuesday inside a 1.1175–1.1237 range, then broke higher in the Asia session as early midterm tallies knocked the USD. It spiked to a session high at 1.1263 before fading to 1.1240. Price sits about 40 pips above EMA(20) near 1.1200 with RSI(14) at 73, in overbought territory, and the long upper wick leaves Monday's high at 1.1237 as the first retest. Rising lows from Friday's 1.1136 trough to Tuesday's 1.1175 range low still frame the week's structure.
Support: 1.1237, 1.1202, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1263, 1.1275
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.1237 Monday high would turn the breakout into a false break and put price back inside the range.
A failure to hold EMA(20) around 1.1200 would expose the 1.1175 range low and the rising lows line.
Acceptance above the 1.1263 session high puts the 1.1275 range ceiling in play.
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read, especially on a soft core print.
US ADP at 13:15 UTC, ISM Services at 15:00 UTC and the final midterm calls are the USD-side risk to the breakout.
02:01 UTC
Recovering, pressing upper half of week range · RSI 68 · price 1.12172
Higher lows since Monday inside 1.1175–1.1237 range.
Monday's London-led impulse from the 1.1149 week low to the 1.1237 week high retraced to roughly the 61.8% fib. Tuesday's low near 1.1175 held three times through London and NY hours, and a higher-lows line from the Monday open still underpins price. The Asia session then broke above the 1.1200 psych+ema20 area and printed a 1.1224 Asia high as US midterm voting weighed on the USD, with RSI(14) lifting to about 68 but not yet overbought.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1175, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.12238, 1.12366, 1.1275
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1200 psych+ema20 returns price to Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range
H1 close above the 1.1237 week high breaks the range and opens the 1.1275 range top
Failure to hold the 1.1175 tuesday low breaks the higher-lows line and confirms a lower low toward the 1.1149 week low
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%, core 2.5%) and US midterm results could materially shift this read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC during NY hours are further event risk for the range
01:01 UTC
Range below week high, pressing the top · RSI 62 · price 1.12059
Lower highs since Monday's peak; 1.1175 floor intact.
Monday's London-session rally ran from 1.1149 to the 1.1237 week high, and price has printed lower highs since, while the 1.1175 Tuesday low held three times through Tuesday's NY session, around 70% of the Monday rally. Early in Wednesday's Asian session, as US midterm results landed, a 25-pip bar off 1.1180 pushed price through the lower-highs line and back above the 1.1200 round number and EMA(20) near 1.1194, capping at the 1.1209 Asian high. RSI(14) has lifted to the low 60s, with ATR(14) around 11 pips, and the move has broken compression rather than confirmed a trend.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11942, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.12085, 1.12366
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1200 round number and EMA(20) would leave the lower-highs breakout as a false break and restore the 1.1175–1.1209 range
Hold above the 1.1209 Asian high opens a retest of the 1.1229 Monday lower high and the 1.1237 week high
Failure at the 1.1175 Tuesday low clears the Monday rally fib and exposes 1.1153
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4%, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read; a soft print repeats the Oct 30 miss
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are the NY-session USD catalysts
00:01 UTC
Range after Monday spike, firming into close · RSI 58 · price 1.12031
Lower highs from 1.1237 over a flat 1.1175 base; last bar pierced the lower-highs line.
Monday's impulse from the 1.1149 weekly open ran through Asia into London and printed the week high at 1.1237. Since then H1 has printed lower highs over a flat base at the 1.1175 Tuesday low, which held three times, including through the NY-session beat on JOLTS and Factory Orders. In the opening Asia hour, as midterm results began, price pushed through the lower-highs line and back above the 1.1200 pivot and the ema20 near 1.1192, stalling at the 38.2% retracement of Monday's impulse with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1192, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1237, 1.1275
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1206 tue high confirms the break of the lower-highs line and opens the 1.1237 week high, then the 1.1275 range top
Slip back below the 1.1200 pivot and ema20 returns price to Tuesday's range; failure to hold the 1.1175 tue low breaks the higher lows from Friday's NY low
Senate control call overnight, Wed flash HICP (10:00 UTC, f/c 4%) and US ADP (13:15 UTC) could materially shift this read