22:05 UTC
Downtrend stalled, ranging below EMAs · RSI 48 · price 1.1191
4-week 1.1104–1.1276 range after Sept–Oct LH/LL leg.
The Sept 9 high at 1.1654 gave way to a steady LH/LL decline into early October. Since Oct 5 the pair has held a 1.1104–1.1276 range for about four weeks, sitting below a flattening EMA20 near 1.1215 and a falling EMA50. Last week's 1.1104 range low held, but the 1.1214 spike after the soft Oct 30 HICP faded, and Monday's push to the 1.1237 week high, close to the 23.6% fib of the Sept–Oct drop, was also capped; the 1.1136 swing low is the nearest floor, with hawkish ECB December-hike pricing cushioning the downside while firm US data contain rallies.
Support: 1.1136, 1.1104, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.1237, 1.1276
What it said to watch
- A daily close above 1.1237 week high and the ema20 reopens the 1.1276 range top; a close above that breaks the base
- Failure to hold the 1.1136 swing low puts the 1.1104 range low back in play; a close below exposes the 1.1000 round number
- US midterm results overnight could shift USD tone, with the Senate call the key swing factor
- Wed flash HICP (f/c 4.0% y/y, core 2.5%): a soft print echoing the Oct 30 miss could challenge December ECB hike pricing and pressure the range low