22:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a flat floor · RSI 37 · price 1.1159
Lower highs since Oct 2 compressing against the 1.1104 swing low.
EURUSD has been in a seven-week downtrend from the 1.1654 Sep 9 high, with price below a falling EMA(50). The Oct 1 flush through the 1.1380 breakdown level pushed the pair onto the 1.12 handle. Since then the pair has compressed week by week, with each lower high (1.1285, then 1.1269, then 1.1214) capping rallies over a floor that has held near the 1.1104 swing low three times. Friday's bounce off that low stalled at the 1.1214 prior high after the soft Oct 30 HICP miss, while a softer USD into the midterms has kept the floor from breaking.
Support: 1.1104, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1269, 1.1380
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.1104 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.1000 psych level in play
- Daily close above the 1.1214 prior high and the lower-highs line opens the 23.6% fib near 1.1234 and the 1.1269 lower high
- Recovery above the 1.1380 breakdown level, near the 38.2% fib, would undermine the downtrend read
- Wed Nov 4 Eurozone flash HICP (core f/c 2.5%) and the US midterm results could materially shift this read