EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 2 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:31 UTC
Downtrend from London high, momentum fading · RSI 38 · price 1.11875
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1237, back at Asian range top.
London ran from the Asian range top to a 1.1237 one-week high as oil and the USD slid, then gave it back through NY in a chain of lower highs, the latest lower high at 1.1201. Price is now testing the 61.8% fib near 1.1186, just above the 1.1184 late low, with the 1.1190 prior lows overhead and ATR compressing into the post-NY lull.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1178
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1201, 1.1237
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1201 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday downtrend
Failure to hold the 1.1184 late low exposes the 1.1178 asia pivot and loses the 61.8% fib
Reclaim of the 1.1190 prior lows needed before the 1.1237 london high comes back into view
US midterm results and Tuesday's 15:00 UTC JOLTS could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1237 London high, testing 61.8% retrace.
London spiked to a 1.1237 session high on the oil-driven USD slide, then rejection there and a chain of lower highs pulled price back below 1.1200 during NY. The late-NY grind has reached the 61.8% retrace of the Asia-London rally near 1.1186, with the 1.1184 session low being probed in thin Asia-open trade. RSI(14) sits near 29 and ATR is about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.11842, 1.1178, 1.1155
Resistance: 1.1191, 1.1200, 1.12085
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1191 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would break the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1184 session low and the 61.8% retrace exposes the 1.1178 asia pivot, then the 78.6% level near 1.1172
Reclaiming the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1208 ny swing hi, would neutralise the NY fade. The 1.1155 asia low is the deeper marker
Tuesday's JOLTS release and US midterm results are the next scheduled USD catalysts that could reset this structure
23:01 UTC
Downtrend from London high, momentum fading · RSI 37 · price 1.11878
Lower highs since 1.1237; price retesting Asian range top.
London lifted EURUSD out of the Asian range to a 1.1237 london high as oil and the USD slid. NY faded it after the ISM beat, building a lower-highs chain under the 1.1200 psych and slipping through the 1.1190 ny lows. Price is now sitting on the 61.8 fib of the london leg at 1.1186, the old Asian range top, in thin post-NY trade with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1155
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1201, 1.1237
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 61.8 fib at 1.1186 puts the 1.1155 asian low back in play
A close back above the 1.1200 psych breaks the lower-highs line and the downtrend read
Re-acceptance above the 1.1190 ny lows would turn the 1.1186 retest into a hold
US midterm results and Tuesday's 15:00 UTC JOLTS are the next scheduled USD catalysts
Lower highs from 1.1237; 1.1190 floor broken late NY.
Gains from the London open, driven by the oil slide and Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks, peaked at the 1.1237 london high and have now fully unwound. A lower-high trendline from the 1.1229 NY-open high pushed price through the 1.1190 prior floor after the NY close, printing a 1.1187 session low back at the Asian range top. RSI(14) at ~36 is not stretched, and the post-close tape is thin, with ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 1.11868, 1.11781, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.12008, 1.12366
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1190 prior floor and the 1.1201 lower high would break the lower-high trendline read
Failure to hold the 1.1187 session low exposes the 1.1178 asia swing, then the 1.1150 asian low
Thin Asian range overnight; JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and US midterm results on Tue are the next catalysts that could reset this structure
22:31 UTC
Downtrend from London high, momentum fading into the close · RSI 37 · price 1.11879
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1237 London high; retracement back to the London breakout origin.
London ran from the Asian range to the 1.1237 london high on the oil slide and Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks, then NY rejected 1.1229 and printed a lower-high chain down through the 1.1190 ny low. After NY close, price is sitting on the 61.8% fib at 1.1186, the top of the Asian range. RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR has compressed to under 5 pips into the Asia handover.
Support: 1.11861, 1.11781, 1.1155
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.12029, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1190 ny low turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1186 fib 61.8 exposes the 1.1178 asia pivot, then the 1.1155 asia low
Close above the 1.1203 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
US midterms Tue and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London spike, lower highs since 1.1237 · RSI 39 · price 1.1188
Lower highs from 1.1237; price just under the 1.1190 floor, retesting the Asian high.
London ran from the Asian high near 1.1186 to a 1.1237 london high on the oil slide and Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks. Supply at 1.1200–1.1250 capped it, and NY has since printed a chain of lower highs, with the last one at 1.1203. Price has slipped below the 1.1190 prior floor in thin rollover trade and now sits on the 1.1187 session low, about 83% back through the london rally, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1178, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1203, 1.1237
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1187 session low exposes the 1.1178 asian pivot, then the 1.1150 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.1190 prior floor and an M15 close above the 1.1203 lower high would break the lower-high chain; 1.1237 london high caps above
US midterms Tue plus JOLTS 15:00 UTC and ECB Nagel/Sleijpen 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend after failed London extension · RSI 38 · price 1.11871
Lower highs from 1.1237; late-NY break of 1.1189 shelf.
London broke the Asian range and ran to a 1.1237 session high as oil slid and Kažimír's hawkish remarks lifted EUR. Supply near 1.1200 capped the move, and NY printed a chain of lower highs, the latest at 1.1203. In late trade, price has slipped below the 1.1190 ny lows shelf and now sits back at the Asian high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the day's rally.
Support: 1.1178, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1203, 1.1237
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1190 ny lows and the lower highs line near the 1.1203 lower high would neutralise the breakdown
Acceptance below 1.1186 exposes the 1.1178 asia swing near the 61.8% fib; loss of that leaves the 1.1149 asian low
US midterms Tue (results into Wed) and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London spike, momentum flat · RSI 43 · price 1.11894
Lower highs since 1.1237 London high, compressing above 1.1189 session low.
The London spike to 1.1237 on hawkish ECB talk was rejected inside the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone. NY printed a chain of lower highs under a falling trendline, and price is now coiling just above the 1.1189 session low, near the 50% retrace of the Asia-London rally. Late post-NY hours with ATR near 5 pips, so ranges are thin.
Support: 1.1189, 1.11825, 1.1178
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1203, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1189 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1182, then the 1.1178 asia swing
Close above the 1.1203 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline read; the 1.1237 london high is the next reference above
Asia session liquidity is thin; Tue JOLTS 15:00 UTC, ECB Nagel 18:00 UTC and US midterm results could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, now stalling · RSI 38 · price 1.11916
Lower highs since 1.1237, flat lows at 1.1190.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1188 and ran to a 1.1237 session high on the oil slide and Kažimír's hawkish ECB comments, but the move unwound as the dollar pared losses. The 1.1229 ny high was a lower high, the post-ISM selloff took out the 1.1201 round number, and late NY has formed lower highs under the 1.1208 bounce high. Price is pinned at the 1.1190 ny low, tested three times, which sits on the 50% fib of the Asia-London leg just above the Asian high retest zone.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1201, 1.1208, 1.1229
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1188 asian high fails the retest and puts the 61.8% fib near 1.1182 in view
Close above the 1.1208 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence; 1.1229 ny high above that
Thin Asia session open next; flat lows at the 1.1190 ny low are the immediate pivot
Tue US midterms, JOLTS 15:00 UTC and ECB Nagel 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY open · RSI 38 · price 1.11914
Lower highs compressing onto the 1.1190 NY low after the London spike to 1.1237.
London broke the Asian range and spiked to the 1.1237 london high on Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks. The move was rejected, and NY faded back through the 1.1200 round number as the dollar pared losses. Late in NY, a lower-highs trendline is pressing price onto the 1.1190 NY low, which sits near the 50% retrace of the London rally fib.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1183
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1208, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 NY low exposes the 1.1183 asian high, near the 61.8% of the London rally fib
Close back above the 1.1200 round number and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence; the 1.1208 swing high is next
Asia session liquidity is thin. US midterm results overnight and ECB Nagel/Sleijpen Tue 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Retest of the 1.1237 london high would put the rejection read in question
20:46 UTC
Pullback from London high, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 1.11955
Lower highs pressing a flat 1.1190 floor.
Oil's slide and Kažimír's hawkish ECB comments drove a London spike to the 1.1237 session high, which was quickly rejected. NY then printed lower highs back through the 1.1200 round number, with the ny pivot at 1.1209 capping the afternoon, while the 1.1190 ny low has held three tests. Price sits at the 50% retracement of the london rally in a 1.1190–1.1203 late-session consolidation.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1178
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1209, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 ny low exposes the 1.1178 asian pivot near the 61.8% of the london rally
Close back above the 1.1200 round number and the lower highs line reopens the 1.1209 ny pivot
US midterms Tue, plus JOLTS 15:00 UTC and ECB Nagel 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after London spike, lower highs · RSI 38 · price 1.11934
Lower-high chain from 1.1237 into a flat 1.1190 base, late NY.
Hawkish Kažimír comments and falling oil lifted EUR out of the Asian range to a 1.1237 session high early in London, but the spike was rejected. NY has printed lower highs from the 1.1229 NY open high, with the 1.1200 round number capping since the ISM release. Price is now consolidating on the 1.1190 NY low, which sits near the 50% retrace of the Asia-London leg, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1178
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 NY low breaks the late-NY base and exposes the 1.1178 swing low near the 61.8% retrace
Recovery above the 1.1200 round number and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the pullback read
Asia session tends to stay inside the 1.1190–1.1200 band; US midterm results overnight and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, lows flattening · RSI 44 · price 1.11949
Lower highs pressing a flat base near 1.1190.
London broke the Asian range and spiked to the 1.1237 london high on Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks, but supply capped it near 1.1200. Since then NY has carved lower highs at 1.1229, the 1.1208 pm high and the 1.1203 lower high against a triple low at 1.1190, which sits at the 78.6% of the London rally fib. Late NY, price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1178
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1208, 1.1237
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1190 triple low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1178 pre-ldn low
Close above the 1.1203 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 1.1208 pm high is next
Rejection again near the 1.1237 london high keeps the supply cap intact
US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read in the Asia session
19:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London · RSI 42 · price 1.1193
Lower highs from 1.1237 into NY low support near 1.1190.
London broke the Asian range high and ran to the 1.1237 london high on Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks and the oil slide. Supply capped retests at the 1.1229 ny high, and the oil-driven move faded after the 15:00 UTC ISM bar. Late NY is printing a lower high at 1.1203 into the 1.1190 ny low, with price sitting on the 50% retracement of the day rally fib, RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1178, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 ny low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1178 asia pivot near the 61.8% day rally fib
Close back above the 1.1203 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1229 ny high
A full reversal below the 1.1150 asian low would erase today's rally
US midterm results overnight into the Asia session could materially shift this read
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC Tue and ECB Nagel at 18:00 UTC Tue are the next scheduled catalysts
19:31 UTC
Intraday pullback from session high, now ranging · RSI 51 · price 1.11988
Lower highs since London peak, flat floor near 1.1190.
London broke the Asian range high near 1.1188 and spiked to 1.1237 on Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks. NY was rejected at a lower 1.1229 NY high, and the post-ISM slide held at the 1.1190 session low, the 50% retracement of the Monday rally. Late NY is ranging 1.1190–1.1209 below a run of lower highs, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.11896, 1.11825
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.12085, 1.1229
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 session low exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.1182 and the old Asian range top
Acceptance above the fib 38.2 at 1.1203 and a break of the 1.1209 swing high would end the lower-high sequence, bringing the 1.1229 NY high back into view
US midterm results overnight and Tue JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Pullback from London high, flattening near 1.1200 · RSI 53 · price 1.12021
Lower highs since London peak; NY low at 1.1190 held twice.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1186 and ran to 1.1237 on Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks and lower oil. Rejection there led to lower highs through NY. The NY low at 1.1190 held twice near the 50% retrace of the London rally, and price is now compressing at 1.1200, just under the 1.1209 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11863
Resistance: 1.12085, 1.1229, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1209 lower high opens a retest of the 1.1229 NY high
Failure to hold the 1.1190 NY low exposes the 1.1186 Asian high and the 61.8% retrace near 1.1183
London high at 1.1237 sits inside the reported 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone; a return there is an area to watch for rejection or acceptance
US midterm results overnight and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Pullback from London high, lower highs in NY · RSI 42 · price 1.11953
Lower highs from 1.1237, holding NY low near 50% fib.
London spiked to the 1.1237 session high on Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks, but supply capped follow-through, and NY has printed lower highs at 1.1229, 1.1222 and 1.1209 as the dollar pared losses. Late NY, price is pinned near the 50% fib of the Sunday-low rally. The NY low at 1.1190 is being retested just above the old Asian high, with the 1.1200 round number now overhead.
Support: 1.11896, 1.11781
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12085, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 NY low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1178 swing low near the 61.8% fib
Close above the 1.1209 lower high breaks the NY descending trendline and reopens the 1.1200–1.1229 area
US midterms Tue, plus JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and ECB Nagel at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend since the London spike high · RSI 39 · price 1.11944
Lower highs from 1.1237; price testing the NY low near the 50% retrace.
London cleared the Asian range high near 1.1188 and spiked to a 1.1237 session high on hawkish ECB commentary. That move met rejection, and as the dollar pared losses NY printed lower highs at 1.1229, 1.1222 and 1.1209. After London close price is back below the 1.1200 psych level, retesting the 1.1190 ny low around the 50% retrace of the Asia-London rally, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.11896, 1.11781
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12085, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 ny low extends the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1178 swing low (61.8% of the rally) in play
Reclaim of 1.1200 psych and a break above the 1.1209 lower high invalidates the NY descending trendline
US midterms Tue (results overnight) and ECB Nagel/Sleijpen Tue 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the session high at 1.1237 caps the London spike
18:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London peak · RSI 37 · price 1.11927
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1237 session high; back below 1.1200.
London broke the Asian high and spiked to a 1.1237 session high on Kažimír's hawkish ECB comments. Price was rejected there and has since carved lower highs, with the ISM beat in the NY session pushing it back under the 1.1200 round number. Price is now retesting the 1.1190 NY low at the 50% fib of the Monday rally, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11863, 1.11825
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12085, 1.12366
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1190 NY low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 1.1183–1.1186 area, where the Asian high meets the 61.8% fib
Reclaiming the 1.1200 round number and breaking the 1.1209 lower high would invalidate the lower-highs line
The 1.1237 session high remains the cap while the lower-highs structure holds
Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC, then Nagel/Sleijpen and US midterms on Tuesday, could shift this read
18:16 UTC
Pullback within Monday's rally, lower highs since London · RSI 42 · price 1.12009
Lower highs from 1.1237, holding above 1.1190 NY low.
London's Kažimír-driven spike to the 1.1237 day high was rejected, and a series of lower highs followed, including the 1.1229 NY spike. The post-ISM USD recovery pushed price to a 1.1190 NY low, holding between the 50% and 61.8% fib of Monday's rally. Late NY session is now compressing at 1.1200 under the 1.12085 late NY high, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11896, 1.11825
Resistance: 1.12085, 1.1229, 1.12366
What it said to watch
Close above 1.12085 late NY high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 1.1229 NY spike is next
Loss of 1.1190 NY low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1182
Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC; ECB Nagel/Sleijpen and US midterms Tue could reset the range
18:01 UTC
Intraday up-leg fading, lower highs since London peak · RSI 45 · price 1.12036
Lower highs from 1.1237 session high; NY low 1.1190 holding, compressing around 1.1200.
London broke the Asian high and spiked to a 1.1237 session high on hawkish ECB talk, but the 1.1229 lower high was rejected and the post-ISM USD bid drove a NY low at 1.1190, near the 50% of the London rally fib. After London close, price is consolidating at the 1.1200 round number, capped by the 1.1209 bounce high and just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11896, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.12085, 1.1229, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 ny low exposes the 1.1186 asian high and the 61.8% London rally fib near 1.1182
Acceptance above the 1.1209 bounce high and the lower-high trendline near 1.1221 would challenge the 1.1229 lower high and the 1.1237 session high
US Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC, then Tue US midterms and ECB Nagel/Sleijpen, could shift this read
17:46 UTC
Pullback from London high, lower highs intraday · RSI 42 · price 1.12036
Lower highs since the 1.1237 session high; NY low at 1.1190, bounce capped at 1.1209.
Asia ground higher from 1.1150, and London extended to the 1.1237 session high as oil slid and ECB's Kažimír sounded hawkish. Since then the market has printed a lower-high chain, with a 1.1229 lower high at 12:30 UTC, and the post-ISM selling in NY made a 1.1190 NY low. Price is now retesting the 1.1200 round number below both EMAs, RSI(14) near 42, after the bounce stalled at the 1.1209 swing high.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11896
Resistance: 1.12085, 1.1229, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1209 swing high breaks the NY lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1229 lower high and the trendline back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1190 NY low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the London pullback
Fib 38.2% of the London-NY decline sits near the 1.1209 swing high; rejection there keeps the decline intact
Senior Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
London up-leg faded, lower highs since peak · RSI 48 · price 1.12064
Lower highs from 1.1237; NY low at 1.1190, now back above 1.1200.
London lifted EURUSD out of the Asian range to a 1.1237 session high on Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks and lower oil, then faded through a lower-high sequence. The ISM beat pushed price to a 1.1190 NY low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asia-London leg. After London close it has reclaimed the 1.1200 psych level with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11896, 1.11863
Resistance: 1.12219, 1.1229, 1.12366
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1200 psych level and a break of the 1.1190 NY low exposes the 1.1186 Asian high and the 61.8% fib near 1.1183
M15 close above the 1.1222 lower high and the lower-high line challenges the 1.1229 NY open high, then the 1.1237 session high
Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, late-NY bounce · RSI 45 · price 1.1205
Lower highs since London peak, lower low at 1.1190 on Asian high.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1189 and ran to a 1.1237 london high on hawkish ECB talk and PMI beats. Rejection followed: a lower ny high at 1.1229, then the ISM beat dropped price to a 1.1190 session low on the asian high, below the 1.1202 pullback low. The after-London-close bounce is stalling at the 1.1208 bounce high, under EMA20/50, RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.1208, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1208 bounce high and the lower-highs line near 1.1223 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1202 pullback low reopens the 1.1190 asian high and session low
Close back below 1.1189 puts price inside the Asian range and negates the London breakout
JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC, ECB speakers Tue 18:00 UTC and US midterm results could materially shift this read
17:01 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London peak · RSI 42 · price 1.12029
Lower highs 1.1237→1.1229→1.1222 and a lower low at 1.1190; bounce now testing 1.1200.
After the weekend gap filled in Asia, London broke the Asian high near 1.1188 and ran to a 1.1237 london high on PMI beats and hawkish ECB talk before rejection under French fiscal stress. NY printed lower highs from 1.1229, and the ISM beat at 15:00 UTC drove a 1.1190 session low near the 78.6% fib of the London rally. Price is now back at 1.1200 psych, around the 61.8% retracement, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 1.1237 london high
Failure to hold the 1.1190 session low would confirm a lower-low below the 78.6% fib and expose the Asian range high
Acceptance vs rejection at 1.1200 psych defines the late-NY read
US midterms Tue and Wed HICP flash could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high · RSI 38 · price 1.11967
Lower highs and lower lows through NY after London spike rejection.
London's spike to the 1.1237 london high was rejected inside the cited 1.1200–1.1250 supply, and NY has printed a lower high chain at 1.1229/1.1222. The beat in ISM Manufacturing (55.5 vs 54.6) at 15:00 UTC pushed price back below the 1.1200 round number to a 1.1190 session low, now holding near the 50% retrace of the Asian-to-London rally.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1178
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1222, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1222 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1190 session low exposes the 1.1178 asian pivot near the 61.8% retrace
Loan Officer Survey 19:00 UTC; JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC and US midterms Tue could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian high at 1.1186 on PMI beats and hawkish ECB talk, setting the session high at 1.12366. NY then printed lower highs, with a rejection at the 1.1229 NY high, and the post-ISM slide broke the 1.1200 round number. Price is holding near the NY low at 1.1190, the 50% retracement of the London leg, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.11896, 1.11863, 1.11825
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1229, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number would turn the post-ISM drop into a false break of the 1.1200–1.1229 range
Failure to hold the 1.1190 NY low exposes the Asian high at 1.1186 and the fib 61.8 level near 1.1183
A close above the lower highs line from the 1.12366 session high toward the 1.1229 NY high would end the NY lower-high sequence
Goolsbee remarks (16:15 UTC) and positioning into Tuesday's US midterms could shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1237, midday range floor broken.
London lifted EURUSD from the Asian high to 1.1237. NY then printed lower highs at 1.1229 and 1.1222 and broke the 1.1202 midday floor after the ISM beat brought USD back, consistent with the digest's French fiscal drag capping EUR. Price now sits just under the 1.1200 ema50/fib (61.8%) confluence, testing the 1.1195 session low with RSI(14) at 36.
Support: 1.11954, 1.11879, 1.11781
Resistance: 1.12004, 1.1229, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 ema50/fib zone would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the 1.1195 session low opens the 1.1188 asian high, then the 1.1178 swing low
Lower highs line from the 1.1237 london high caps; a break above 1.1229 ny high invalidates it
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC on December hike odds could move USD this hour
US midterms Tue and Wed HICP sit beyond this window but frame the 1.1200 pivot
15:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London peak · RSI 40 · price 1.11986
London high then NY lower high; London low broken.
The Kazimir-driven London rally peaked at the 1.1237 session high. The NY open was rejected at the 1.1229 ny high, a lower high, and price has slipped back through the 1.1202 london low and the 1.1200 handle, in line with EUR failing to hold 1.12 on France/Fitch weight. RSI(14) sits near 40 with price under both EMAs, testing the 38.2–50% fib of the rally off the Asian low.
Support: 1.11954, 1.11879, 1.11781
Resistance: 1.12016, 1.1229, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1202 london low neutralises the breakdown read
Loss of the 1.1195 ny low exposes the 1.1188 asian high and the 50% fib near 1.1193
A break of the 1.1178 swing low, near the 61.8% fib, unwinds the Asian-session breakout
The lower-highs line from the session high caps any rebound toward the 1.1229 ny high
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could shift USD into the NY afternoon
15:31 UTC
Intraday pullback from London high, lower highs in NY · RSI 44 · price 1.12022
Lower-high sequence since 1.1237, testing 1.1200 London low.
London broke the 1.1186 Asian high and ran to a 1.1237 session high on the Kazimir/PMI EUR bid. EUR/USD then failed to hold above 1.1200, with Fitch's negative outlook on France weighing, and NY has printed a 1.1229 NY high and a 1.1222 lower high. Price is now retesting the 1.1202 London low, roughly at the fib 61.8 of the London rally and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1202, 1.12005, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1200 (London low / fib 61.8) confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1186 Asian high
M15 close above the 1.1222 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain and brings the 1.1229 NY high and 1.1237 session high back into view
Goolsbee speaks at 16:15 UTC, ahead of London close, and could shift this read
Lower highs inside a 1.1202–1.1237 band, price testing band floor.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1186 and ran to a 1.1237 session high on Kazimir's hawkish ECB remarks, then printed a lower high at 1.1229 at the NY open. The ISM/Escrivá bar pushed price back to 1.1204, sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the overnight rally just above the 1.1202 London low, with the 1.1200 round number and EMA50 in the same area.
Support: 1.12016, 1.11863
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 london low and 1.1200 round number confirms a lower-low and opens the 50% retracement near 1.1193
Reclaim of the 1.1229 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 1.1237 session high back in play
Further ISM digestion and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Break back into the Asian range below the 1.1186 asian high would unwind most of the London leg
London open broke the Asian high near 1.1186. Price then spiked to a 1.1237 session high on Kazimir's hawkish ECB remarks before the pullback held the 1.1202 London low at the 38.2% fib. Since then EUR/USD has coiled between 1.1202 and the 1.1229 NY high with lower highs. RSI(14) sits flat near 50, just under EMA20, into the ISM release.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid (15:00 UTC) could break the 1.1202–1.1229 range either way
M15 close above the 1.1229 NY high reopens the 1.1237 session high and the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 1.1202 London low exposes the 1.1186 Asian high and the 50% fib near 1.1193
Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) and Escrivá remarks may shift the read after the data
Persistent lower highs under the 1.1237 session high keep the consolidation tilted heavy
London breakout leg capped at 1.1237; lower high at 1.1229 over a 1.1202 floor.
London broke the Asian high near 1.1188 and spiked to a 1.1237 session high on Kazimir's hawkish ECB comments and upward-revised PMIs. The pullback held the 38.2% fib at the 1.1202 London low, and the NY open was rejected at 1.1229 for a lower high. Price sits mid-range near 1.1209 with RSI(14) around 47 ahead of ISM.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
ISM Mfg PMI and ECB's Escrivá at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.1202 London low breaks the consolidation and exposes the 1.1188 Asian high
A close above the 1.1229 NY high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 1.1237 session high back in play
London breakout above Asian range, now consolidating with higher lows under 1.1237.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1186 on softer USD and EUR PMI beats, ran to a session high at 1.1237, then retraced about half the London leg to the London low at 1.1202, just above the 1.12 handle. Since then price is compressing on higher lows near 1.1210 beneath the NY open high at 1.1229. RSI(14) near 58 is neutral and ATR is about 8 pips.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1237 session high breaks the consolidation, into the 1.1200–1.1250 supply area flagged in the digest
Break of the higher lows at 1.1210 and the London low at 1.1202 brings the Asian high at 1.1186 back into view
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read; ECB's Escrivá also speaks at 15:00 UTC
London breakout, now compressing between 1.1202 and 1.1237.
London broke the Asian high near 1.1188 on a softer USD and hawkish ECB talk. The move ran to a session high at 1.1237, and the pullback held the 1.1202 pullback low near the 61.8% of the London leg fib. In early NY the pair printed a lower high at 1.1229 and was rejected back toward 1.1210, so it is compressing between lower highs and rising lows just above the 1.12 handle.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1202, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, with Escrivá at the same time, could break the compression either way
A close above the 1.1229 lower high and the 1.1237 session high opens the 1.1250 top of the supply zone
Losing the rising lows at 1.1210 and then the 1.1202 pullback low exposes the Asian high at 1.1188
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC is a second USD input during NY hours
Asian range broken higher, London pullback held 38.2%, NY pressing highs.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1188 on the PMI beats and Kazimir's hawkish comments. The move ran to a 1.1237 session high before pulling back to the 38.2% fib at 1.1202, with the higher low at 1.1210 now sitting above the 1.12 handle. The first-hour-of-NY push to 1.1229 (ny open high) stalled just under the session high, inside ING's flagged 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1202, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and ECB's Escrivá at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1210 higher low breaks the trendline and puts the 38.2% fib at 1.1202 back in play
Acceptance above the 1.1237 session high extends the London-NY breakout; another rejection there keeps a lower-high risk open
Loss of the 1.1188 asian high would undo the London breakout
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC
13:31 UTC
Impulsive London rally, now consolidating · RSI 51 · price 1.12138
Asian range break, then lower high and higher low coiling.
London broke the 1.1188 asian high and spiked to a 1.1237 session high on Kazimir's hawkish 'how much' tightening comment. Selling into the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone, with France/Fitch risk weighing, pulled price back to a 1.1202 pullback low at the 38.2% fib. Early NY is coiling in a pennant between that low and a 1.1221 lower high, holding just above the ema20 with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1202, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1221, 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1221 lower high breaks the pennant top and puts the 1.1237 session high back in play; acceptance above it would test the 1.1250 supply zone
M15 close below the 1.1202 pullback low (38.2% fib) breaks the pennant base and exposes the 1.1188 asian high
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, with ECB's Escrivá at 15:00 UTC and Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
London breakout of Asian range, now a 1.1202–1.1237 consolidation.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1186 on Kazimir's hawkish ECB comments and lower oil, peaking at the 1.1237 session high. The pullback held a 1.1202 swing low near the 38.2% retrace of the London leg. Early NY is compressing between a 1.1210 higher low and a 1.1221 lower high, inside the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.12095, 1.12016, 1.11863
Resistance: 1.12207, 1.12366, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1202 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the Asian high at 1.1186.
A close above the 1.1221 lower high reopens the 1.1237 session high, with the 1.1250 supply top above.
US ISM Manufacturing and ECB's Escrivá at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
London breakout above Asian range, higher low at 1.1202, lower high at 1.1221.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1188 and ran to a 1.1237 session high on the hawkish Kazimir bid. The pullback held at 1.1202, the 38.2% fib, and a lower high at 1.1221 now caps price into the NY open, inside the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone.
Support: 1.12016, 1.11879
Resistance: 1.12207, 1.12366, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the Asian high at 1.1188
M15 close above the 1.1221 lower high reopens the 1.1237 session high and the 1.1250 supply zone top
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and ECB's Escrivá at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range break, then a HH at 1.1237 and HL at 1.1202.
London broke the asian high at 1.1186 and ran to the 1.1237 london high on the hawkish ECB (Kazimir) bid. It then retraced 38.2% of the Asia-low leg to a higher low at 1.1202. Price is back pressing the 1.1221 swing high into the London-NY transition, inside the ING-flagged 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone.
Support: 1.12016, 1.11863
Resistance: 1.12207, 1.12366, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain and opens a retest of the asian high at 1.1186
Close above the 1.1237 london high extends the HH sequence toward the 1.1250 supply zone top
US ISM Manufacturing and ECB's Escrivá at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range break, higher low at 1.1202 below 1.1237 session high.
London broke the 1.1149–1.1188 Asian range on Kazimir's hawkish ECB line and lower oil, peaking at the 1.1237 session high inside the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone flagged by ING. The pullback low at 1.1202 held near the 38.2% fib and above the round 1.12 handle. Price is back at 1.1216 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing and ECB's Escrivá at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1202 pullback low exposes the 1.1188 Asian high and negates the higher-low read
M15 close above the 1.1237 session high puts the 1.1250 supply top in play
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC is the second USD risk into NY
London broke the 1.1186 Asian high and ran to a 1.1237 session high on a softer USD and hawkish ECB rhetoric, then faded back to the 1.1200 round number. Price is now coiling between the 1.1202 pullback low, near the 38.2% of the day's rally, and a 1.1212 lower high. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR is about 7 pips.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 pullback low and the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1186 Asian high
Close above the 1.1212 lower high reopens the 1.1237 session high, which sits inside the flagged 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone
US ISM Manufacturing and ECB's Escrivá (15:00 UTC), then Goolsbee (16:15 UTC), could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, pullback holding above 1.1200.
London broke the asian high near 1.1188 on Kazimir's hawkish ECB comments and spiked to a 1.1237 session high, then met rejection inside the flagged 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone. The pullback low at 1.1202 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the overnight leg, and price is stalling just above ema20 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1237
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1202 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 1.1193 and the asian high at 1.1188
A close above the 1.1212 swing high reopens the 1.1237 session high
US ISM Manufacturing and ECB's Escrivá at 15:00 UTC, plus Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read during NY hours
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after spike · RSI 52 · price 1.1208
Asian range broken higher in London; spike high followed by lower highs into a hold at 1.1200.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1188 and Kazimir's hawkish ECB remarks spiked EURUSD to a 1.1237 session high. The pullback built lower highs, with the latest at 1.1212, and held the 1.1202 pullback low just above 1.1200, near the 38.2% retrace of the move up from the 1.1149 weekly open. RSI(14) has cooled to neutral around 52.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1188, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1224, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 pullback low and 1.1200 exposes the asian high at 1.1188 and the 50% retrace near 1.1193
A break above the 1.1212 lower high reopens the 1.1224 spike shelf and the 1.1237 session high
ECB Nagel at 12:00 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A slide back under the 1.1149 weekly open would erase the Monday breakout
London broke the Asian high at 1.1186, and Kazimir's hawkish ECB remarks drove a spike to the 1.1237 session high. The pullback stalled at 1.1202, the 38.2% retrace and Friday's high, and price is back above EMA20, though lower highs since the spike leave 1.1222 as the first cap.
Support: 1.12016, 1.11863
Resistance: 1.12218, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 pullback low opens the 50% retrace near 1.1193 and the 1.1186 asian high
M15 close above the 1.1222 lower high resumes the higher-high sequence toward the 1.1237 session high
ECB Nagel at 12:00 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
London breakout fading, pullback in progress · RSI 53 · price 1.12032
Broke Asian range and Friday's high, now retesting 1.1200.
Early London broke the Asian high at 1.1186 and Friday's high near 1.1205, topping at the 1.1237 session high as USD softened on Iran-diplomacy hopes. Since Vujčić spoke, a lower high at 1.1222 has formed and price has slipped back to the 1.1200 round number, which lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the breakout leg.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11929, 1.11863
Resistance: 1.12218, 1.12366
What it said to watch
Close below the 50% fib at 1.1193 and the rising trendline puts the Asian high at 1.1186 back in play
Reclaim of the 1.1222 lower high reopens the 1.1237 session high
ECB's Nagel (12:00 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 52 · price 1.1206
London breakout above Friday high, now retesting it on a sequence of lower highs.
London cleared the asian high at 1.1186 and Friday's high at 1.1205, spiking to a 1.1237 session high on Kazimir's hawkish ECB remarks. The pullback since 09:15 UTC has printed lower highs back into the friday high, with price sitting on EMA20, RSI(14) at 52 and the 1.1200 round number, where the 61.8% fib sits, just below.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number (61.8% fib) turns the move into a false break back inside Friday's range, exposing the asian high at 1.1186
A close above the 1.1222 lower high breaks the pullback line and puts the 1.1237 session high back in play
ECB's Nagel at 12:00 UTC, then US ISM Manufacturing (f/c 54.6) and Escrivá at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 60 · price 1.12101
London broke the Asian range and Friday high; lower highs since the 1.1237 session high.
The London leg from the 1.1178 London low broke the Asian high at 1.1186 and Friday's 1.1205 high, helped by hawkish ECB repricing and a softer USD, and topped at the 1.1237 session high at 09:00 UTC. A 27-pip pullback has since printed a lower high at 1.1222 and is now retesting the Friday high near the 50% fib, with RSI(14) cooled to about 60.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1186, 1.1178
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1205 Friday high and 1.1200 would turn the break into a false break and put the Asian high at 1.1186 in play
Reclaim of the 1.1222 lower high reopens the 1.1237 session high
ECB's Nagel (12:00 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after London spike · RSI 67 · price 1.12155
Asian range break, London high 1.1237, retracement holding above 1.1200.
London cleared the asian high at 1.1186 and Friday high near 1.1205. The spike on hawkish ECB remarks topped at the 1.1237 session high. Price has eased about 20 pips to a 1.1215 pullback low, sitting on the 38.2% fib with a lower high at 1.1222 and RSI(14) cooling to 67.
Support: 1.12154, 1.12056, 1.11863
Resistance: 1.12218, 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1205 friday high turns the breakout into a false break
Hold of the 1.1215 pullback low and a close above the 1.1222 lower high reopens the session high at 1.1237
Loss of the 61.8% fib near 1.1200 exposes the asian high at 1.1186
ECB's Nagel (12:00 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after London spike · RSI 68 · price 1.12184
HH/HL from Asian low; first pullback off session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1186 and Friday's high at 1.1206. Hawkish ECB repricing lifted EUR/USD to a 1.1237 session high, and price has since pulled back about 20 pips to a 1.1217 pullback low near the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) has cooled from short-term overbought to about 68, with the 1.1200–1.1206 breakout area below as the first test of the move.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1206, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.1206 Friday high would mark the breakout as a false break and point toward the 1.1186 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1217 pullback low opens a test of the rising support line near 1.1209
A close above the 1.1237 session high resumes the HH chain toward the 1.1250 round number
ECB's Vujčić (10:00 UTC) and Nagel (12:00 UTC) could shift this read; validation of further hikes would extend the breakout
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) is the main USD-side risk to the session's gains
09:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 67 · price 1.12183
London broke the Asian range high and printed higher highs; first pullback now sits at the 38.2% fib.
London broke above the Asian high at 1.1188 and ran to a 1.1237 session high as Iran-diplomacy hopes and lower oil drained USD support. Supply capped the move there, and the pullback to the 1.1217 pullback low is holding near the 38.2% retracement of the London leg.
Support: 1.12169, 1.1200, 1.11879
Resistance: 1.12366
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1217 pullback low exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 61.8% retracement
Close back below the 1.1188 Asian high and the Asia trendline negates the London breakout
Acceptance above the 1.1237 session high resumes the higher-high chain
ECB Vujčić (now) and Nagel at 12:00 UTC on a December hike could shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the main volatility risk into the NY session
09:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended after London spike · RSI 80 · price 1.12267
London breakout above Asian range and Friday high, first rejection at session high.
London open pushed EURUSD through the asian high at 1.1188, the friday high at 1.1206 and the 1.1200 round number. The move ran to a 1.1237 session high as USD stayed offered on fading oil and Iran risk premium. The 09:15 UTC bar printed a full rejection off that high with RSI(14) near 80, the first stall in a stair-step HH/HL chain.
Support: 1.12056, 1.1200, 1.11879
Resistance: 1.12366
What it said to watch
ECB Vujčić at 09:45 and 10:00 UTC could set the next leg; a hedged tone on December puts the 1.1200 round number back in play
Failure to hold the friday high at 1.1206 turns the breakout into a false break toward the asian high at 1.1188
M15 close above the 1.1237 session high negates the rejection and extends the HH chain
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
HH/HL chain since Asia; range break above 1.12 and Friday high.
London broke the 1.1149–1.1188 Asian range and cleared the 1.12 psych level and Friday's 1.1214 high. The move accelerated through the 08:45–08:55 UTC PMI window as USD softened on lower oil, printing a session high at 1.1237. RSI(14) near 85 is stretched. The broken Friday high near 1.1215 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the London leg.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.12366, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the Friday high at 1.1215 and a close back below 1.1200 psych would mark a false break
M15 close above the 1.1237 session high opens the 1.1250 round number
ECB Vujčić (09:45/10:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Break of the rising trendline from the 06:15 UTC low ends the HH/HL chain; the asian high at 1.1188 sits below
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the next USD-side risk
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 86 · price 1.12261
Higher highs and higher lows from the Asian low; London broke above the Asian range and Friday's 1.1214 high.
London opened above the 1.1186 Asian high and pushed through the 1.12 round number and Friday's 1.1214 high. The session high is 1.12275, as softer USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes and lower oil adds to EUR demand. RSI(14) near 86 marks the leg as stretched, with the 08:30 UTC bar alone covering about 13 pips against ATR near 6.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.12275, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1214 Friday high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.12 round number and the rising support line reopens the 1.1186 Asian high
ECB Vujčić (09:45/10:00 UTC) and Nagel (12:00 UTC) could shift the read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially reprice USD
Extension above the 1.12275 session high puts the 1.1250 psych level in play
London breakout above Asian range, round number and prior high; HH/HL chain since 06:15 UTC.
London open broke the 1.11863 Asian high, then cleared the 1.1200 round number and Friday's 1.1214 prior high. That completes a ~70-pip asia-london leg from the 1.1149 low, helped by a softer USD on Iran-diplomacy and lower oil. RSI(14) near 86 is extreme, and the 08:30 UTC bar alone ran 13 pips, more than twice ATR.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1200, 1.11863
Resistance: 1.12192, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1214 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break of Friday's top
Loss of the 1.1200 round number reopens the 1.1186 Asian high, near the 50% retracement of the asia-london leg
Session high 1.1219 is the immediate cap; the 1.1250 psych level is the next reference above
Final HCOB Manufacturing PMI at 08:55 UTC and ECB's Vujčić at 09:45 UTC could shift this read; US ISM at 15:00 UTC is the NY session risk
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into resistance · RSI 81 · price 1.12046
HH/HL chain since London open, Asian range broken higher.
London open broke the Monday Asian high at 1.1186 and extended through the 1.1200 round number, with price now pressing Friday's prior high at 1.1206 as a softer USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes and lower oil does the lifting. RSI(14) near 81 is stretched after nine consecutive higher closes, and the rising trendline from the Asian lows sits well below.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11863, 1.11781
Resistance: 1.12056, 1.1214
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1206 prior high opens the 1.1214 friday high
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number turns focus back to the 1.1186 asian high
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1178 swing low would undo the London breakout
Final HCOB Manufacturing PMI at 08:55 UTC and ECB Vujčić at 09:45 UTC could shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the main USD risk later in the session
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended into 1.1200 · RSI 78 · price 1.12015
HH/HL chain since Asia open; Asian range broken higher at London open.
London open broke the Asian high at 1.1186. Price pushed to 1.1202, pressing the 1.1200 round number just under Friday's 1.1206 swing high, as Iran-diplomacy hopes and lower oil weigh on the USD. Higher lows have stepped up from the 1.1149 Asia low, with the last higher low at 1.1178, and RSI(14) is near 78 after the run.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11863, 1.11781
Resistance: 1.12056, 1.1214
What it said to watch
HCOB final manufacturing PMIs (08:15/08:55 UTC) and ECB Vujčić from 09:45 UTC could shift this read in the next bars
M15 close back below the 1.1200 round number would leave the push above the swing high unconfirmed
A return inside the Asian range below the 1.1186 asian high would mark the London breakout as a false break
A break of the 1.1178 higher low ends the session's HH/HL chain
A close above 1.1206 exposes the 1.1214 friday high cited in the digest
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the next major USD catalyst
Higher lows since Sunday's gap-down open; London broke above the Asian range high.
London open pushed EURUSD through the 1.1186 Asian high and on to 1.1198, as the softer USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes and lower oil carried the week's opening gap-fill higher. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched for M15 as price presses the 1.1200 round number, with Friday's in-window high at 1.1206 just above.
Support: 1.11863, 1.11781
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12056
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.1200 round number brings the 1.1206 friday high into play
Slip back below the 1.1186 asian high turns the London break into a false break
Loss of the 1.1178 swing low and the rising support line breaks the higher-low chain
Final HCOB Manufacturing PMIs at 08:15/08:55 UTC and ECB Vujčić at 09:45 UTC could shift this read; US ISM at 15:00 UTC later
Higher lows since Asia, Asian high broken in Frankfurt hour.
A steady Asia climb filled Monday's opening gap. The Frankfurt hour then pushed through the Asian high at 1.1189 to a 1.1196 session high, retracing about 80% of Friday's drop from the 1.1206 Friday high to 1.1136 as Iran-diplomacy hopes softened the USD. Rising lows since Asia are intact with RSI(14) near 76, and the Friday high plus the 1.12 round number sit just above.
Support: 1.1189, 1.1178
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1206
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1189 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1178 swing low and the rising lows line ends the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.1206 friday high clears the full Friday drop fib
Final HCOB PMIs at 08:15/08:55 UTC and Vujčić at 09:45 UTC land in the London session
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 79 · price 1.11928
Steady higher highs and higher lows from the Asian low; London open broke the Asian range high.
Price filled the weekend gap early and kept climbing from the 1.1149 Asian low. The London open then broke the 1.1186 Asian high and printed 1.1193, shrugging off the German retail sales miss. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched, with the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1206 Friday high directly overhead.
Support: 1.11863, 1.11781, 1.11491
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12056
What it said to watch
Final HCOB Manufacturing PMIs (08:15/08:55 UTC) and Vujčić (09:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 1.1186 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1178 swing low breaks the rising lows trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.1206 Friday high clears the window top; US ISM at 15:00 UTC is the next USD-side risk
HH/HL chain from Monday gap low, pressing above Asian range.
Monday's weekend gap low at 1.1149 started a steady HH/HL climb through the Asian session. Early London has pushed above the 1.1184 Asian high to a 1.1189 session high, beyond the 61.8% retrace of Friday's drop, on the soft-USD digest backdrop. RSI(14) near 73 is warm but not extreme; dips held the 1.1178 swing low twice and the Asia trendline is intact.
Support: 1.11844, 1.11781, 1.11724
Resistance: 1.1189, 1.1200, 1.12056
What it said to watch
HCOB Manufacturing PMIs 08:15–08:55 UTC and ECB Vujčić 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.1184 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1178 swing low and the Asia trendline breaks the HH/HL chain, exposing the 1.1172 Fri pm high
Session high at 1.1189 — area to watch for rejection or break toward the 1.1200 round number and 1.1206 Friday peak
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the larger risk for the NY session
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 73 · price 1.1186
Higher-low chain from Asian low, at Asian range top.
Asia session filled the weekend gap and climbed from the 1.1149 Asian low to a 1.1188 session high, with a higher-low chain at 1.1162 and 1.1178 as the USD stayed soft on Iran-diplomacy headlines. Price is pinned at the Asian range top into the European open. RSI(14) is near 73, warm but not extreme, and the 1.1200 round number sits just overhead.
Support: 1.1178, 1.1162, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1188, 1.1200, 1.1206
What it said to watch
German Retail Sales (07:00 UTC) and HCOB Manufacturing PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) could break the Asian range in either direction
M15 close above the 1.1188 session high and 1.1200 round number opens the Friday high at 1.1206
Break of the 1.1178 swing low and the HL trendline marks the first lower low; 38.2% of the Asia rally fib sits at 1.1173
Loss of the 1.1162 higher low puts the 1.1149 Asian low back in play
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the Asian low, tight consolidation near the session high.
Monday's gap down to the 1.1149 Asian low was filled early. Asia then built a higher-low chain, through the 1.1162 swing low, to a 1.1186 session high as the USD softened on Middle East diplomacy headlines. Price is consolidating just under the session high into the London open, with the latest dip low at 1.1178 holding and RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 1.11781, 1.11623, 1.11491
Resistance: 1.11863, 1.1200, 1.12056
What it said to watch
German Retail Sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs at 08:15–08:55 UTC could materially shift this read
A close above the 1.1186 session high opens the path to the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1206 Friday high
Failure to hold the 1.1178 dip low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1162 swing low
A break back below the 1.1149 Asian low would negate the Asia rally structure
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the next major USD risk
06:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, first pullback off Asian high · RSI 62 · price 1.11782
HH/HL chain from Monday gap low; Asian range 1.1149–1.1186, price near the top.
Asia climbed from the gap low at 1.1149 in higher lows and broke above Friday's 1.1172 bounce high at 05:00 UTC to an asian high of 1.1186, helped by Friday's EZ GDP beat and a softer USD on Middle East diplomacy. Late in the Asia session the last bar slipped to 1.1178, testing the breakout base just ahead of the London open, with ATR at about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.11748, 1.11623, 1.11491
Resistance: 1.11863, 1.12056
What it said to watch
German Retail Sales 07:00 UTC (MoM f/c 0.4%) and final HCOB PMIs 08:15–08:55 UTC could reset the Asian range
M15 close below the 1.1175 breakout base returns price inside the Asian range, toward the swing low at 1.1162 and the 61.8% of the asian leg fib
Loss of rising support and the 1.1162 swing low breaks the HL chain; the gap low at 1.1149 sits below
Break of the 1.1186 asian high exposes the friday high at 1.1206
US ISM Manufacturing PMI 15:00 UTC is the main NY session risk
06:16 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, pausing below session high · RSI 71 · price 1.11821
Higher lows off the 1.1149 gap low; break of the 1.1172 prior high, now a tight shelf at 1.1181.
The Asia session reversed the weekend gap down from 1.1149 with higher lows and cleared Friday's 1.1172 prior high at 05:00 UTC, in line with the GDP-beat bounce and a softer USD. Price is now compressing on a 1.1181 shelf just under the 1.1186 session high, where upper wicks show supply capping into London open. RSI(14) is near 71.
Support: 1.1181, 1.1172, 1.1162
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.1190, 1.1206
What it said to watch
German Retail Sales (07:00 UTC) and final HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) could materially shift this read around London open
An M15 close above the 1.1186 session high exposes the 1.1190 Friday pivot, then the 1.1206 Friday high
Loss of the 1.1181 shelf puts a retest of the 1.1172 prior high (38.2% fib of the Asia leg) in play
A break of the Asia rising line and the 1.1162 swing low would unwind the Asian higher-low sequence
06:01 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, stalling at session high · RSI 74 · price 1.11824
HH/HL chain off the 1.1149 gap low; Friday's 1.1172 NY high broken.
Monday's gap down to the 1.1149 asian low was filled within two hours. The steady Asia climb, helped by the Eurozone GDP beat and a softer USD, then cleared Friday's 1.1172 NY high at 05:00 UTC. Price is flat just under the 1.1184 asian high into London open, RSI(14) near 74, and the 1.1162 higher low anchors the session trendline.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1162, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.11844, 1.1190, 1.12056
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1172 breakout level returns price to the Asian range
Clearance of the 1.1184 asian high exposes the 1.1190 prior pivot, then the 1.1206 friday high
Loss of the 1.1162 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain
German Retail Sales 07:00 UTC and final HCOB PMIs 08:15–08:55 UTC could shift this read at London open
05:46 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, pressing session high · RSI 72 · price 1.11819
HH/HL chain from the Asia low; break above Friday's late highs.
EUR/USD climbed through the Asia session off the 1.1149 gap low as Iran diplomacy hopes softened the USD. The 05:00 UTC push cleared Friday's late highs at the 1.1172 breakout lvl and capped at a 1.1184 Asia high ahead of London open. The HL chain holds along the rising trendline, with the 1.1162 swing low underneath and RSI(14) at 72.
Support: 1.1172, 1.11623, 1.11491
Resistance: 1.11843, 1.11908, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1184 asia high opens the 1.1191 prior high and the 1.1200 round number
A slip back below the 1.1172 breakout lvl marks a false break; loss of the 1.1162 swing low breaks the trendline and the HL chain, exposing the 1.1149 asia low
EZ Retail Sales (07:00 GMT) and final HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 GMT) at London open could materially shift this read; US ISM follows at 15:00 UTC
05:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended into London open · RSI 74 · price 1.11826
Higher lows from the 1.1149 gap low, Friday's 1.1172 high broken.
Asia session filled the weekend gap from the 1.1149 gap low and broke Friday's late 1.1172 prior high. It printed a 1.1184 session high as the USD softened on Iran diplomacy hopes. RSI(14) is near 74, short-term hot but not extreme, with a higher-low chain intact from the 1.1162 swing low.
Support: 1.11724, 1.11623, 1.11491
Resistance: 1.11843, 1.11905, 1.1200
What it said to watch
London open plus EZ Retail Sales (07:00 GMT) and HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 GMT) could materially shift this read
A close back below the 1.1172 prior high, near the Asian leg 38.2% fib, puts the breakout in question
Failure to hold the 1.1162 swing low breaks the HL trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.1184 session high exposes the 1.1190 swing high and the 1.1200 round number
05:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, late-Asia push to session high · RSI 70 · price 1.11827
HH/HL chain off the Sunday gap low; Asian range 1.1149–1.1183.
Asia filled the small Sunday gap and built higher lows from the 1.1149 asian low as a softer USD on Iran diplomacy hopes lifted the pair. The 05:00 UTC bar broke the 1.1172 prior high and cleared the 61.8% retrace of Friday's NY selloff. Price now sits at the session high, about 8 pips below Friday's 1.1191 breakdown point, with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 1.11724, 1.11623, 1.11491
Resistance: 1.11908, 1.1200, 1.12056
What it said to watch
Breakdown area at 1.1191, near the 78.6% fib, is the first test for the rally — a rejection or a break there shapes the London read
An M15 close back below the 1.1172 prior high points to a false break of the Asian range top
Failure to hold the 1.1162 swing low and the higher-low trendline ends the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.1200 round number brings the 1.1206 friday high into play
Eurozone Retail Sales at 07:00 UTC and final HCOB PMIs at 08:15–08:55 UTC around London open could materially shift this read; US ISM is due at 15:00 UTC
05:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 64 · price 1.11759
Monday gap filled; HH/HL chain into fresh session high.
Monday's gap-down open to the 1.1149 Asia low was filled within the first hour as the USD softened on Iran diplomacy hopes. Asia has since built higher lows, with the 1.1162 swing low the latest, and price now prints a session high at 1.1176. That sits above the 1.1172 prior high and inside the 50–61.8% retrace of Friday's sell-off, just under the 1.1180 Fri AM low, with RSI(14) at 64 and not stretched.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1162, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1180 (Fri AM low / 61.8% fib) opens the path to the 1.1200 round number
Slip back below the 1.1172 prior high puts the 1.1162 swing low and the Asia higher-lows trendline in play; a break there ends the HH/HL sequence
Eurozone Retail Sales 07:00 GMT and final HCOB PMIs 08:15–08:55 GMT around London open could shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, late Asia · RSI 60 · price 1.11739
Higher lows through Asia; testing Asian range high above Friday's prior high.
Asia session filled Monday's opening gap within the first hour. It has since built higher lows off the 1.1149 Asian low and is now pressing 1.1175, just above Friday's 1.1172 prior high and the 50% retrace of Friday's NY sell-off. RSI(14) near 60 is not stretched, and a softer USD on Iran diplomacy headlines underpins the drift, but ranges are thin into London.
Support: 1.11724, 1.11623, 1.11491
Resistance: 1.11791, 1.11898, 1.12056
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1172 prior high keeps the Asian higher-low chain intact; a break of the 1.1162 higher low and the trendline undoes it
61.8% fib at 1.1179 and the 1.1190 drop origin cap the retrace of Friday's NY sell-off; a close above both opens the friday high at 1.1206
Loss of the 1.1149 Asian low would reverse the gap fill and the Asia recovery
Eurozone Retail Sales (07:00 GMT) and final HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 GMT) around London open, then US ISM at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Monday gap filled; HH/HL through Friday's late prior high.
Late Asia session: Monday's gap down to the 1.1149 gap low filled inside the first hour. A higher low at 1.1162 has since carried price through Friday's 1.1171 prior high toward the 61.8% fib of Friday's NY sell-off at 1.1179, as Iran-diplomacy hopes soften the USD. RSI(14) is near 62 and ATR is under 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1171, 1.1162, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1179, 1.1200, 1.1206
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.1171 prior high returns price to the Asian range.
A break of the 1.1162 higher low ends the Asia HH/HL chain and puts the 1.1149 gap low back in play.
Acceptance above the 1.1179 61.8% fib opens the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1206 friday high.
Eurozone Retail Sales (07:00 UTC) and HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) land into London open and could reset the Asian range.
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the NY-session risk to the USD-soft read.
04:16 UTC
Asian grind higher after weekend gap, testing resistance · RSI 57 · price 1.1172
Higher lows through Asia, capped at the Friday 1.1172-74 highs.
The Asia session filled Sunday's weekend gap and printed higher lows off the 1.1149 asian low along a rising trendline, helped by a softer USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes. Price is now pressing the 1.1174 asian high, a cluster of Friday post-sell-off highs at the 50% retracement of Friday's 1.1206–1.1136 drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 57 and ATR is about 4 pips, so the range is tight ahead of London.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1149, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.1179, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1179 fib 61.8 clears the Friday highs cluster and opens the 1.1200 round number
A break of the 1.1162 swing low and the rising trendline ends the Asian higher-low sequence and puts the 1.1149 asian low in play
Losing 1.1149 re-exposes the friday low at 1.1136
EZ Retail Sales (07:00 UTC) and HCOB PMIs (08:15/08:55 UTC) at the London open could reset the Asian range
US ISM Mfg (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read later in NY hours
04:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 62 · price 1.11714
Higher lows off Asian low, testing Friday swing high.
Asia session filled the weekend gap and is pressing the 1.1172 swing high from Friday, which also sits at the 50% retrace of Friday's 1.1206–1.1136 drop, as Iran-diplomacy hopes soften the USD. Higher lows from the 1.1149 Asian low through the 1.1162 pullback low are intact. Ranges are tight at about 4 pips ATR.
Support: 1.11623, 1.11491, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 swing high clears the 50% retrace and opens 1.1200 psych
Break below the 1.1162 pullback low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.1149 Asian low back in play
Eurozone Retail Sales (07:00 UTC) and HCOB PMIs (08:15/08:55 UTC) around London open could materially shift this read
Loss of the 1.1149 Asian low exposes the 1.1136 Friday low
Asian higher lows compressing under the 1.1172 cap.
Asia filled the ~12-pip weekend gap on a softer USD, rallying from the 1.1149 Asia low to the 1.1171 Asia high, where Friday's late-NY cap at 1.1172 held again. The pullback set a higher low at 1.1162, near the 38.2% of the Asia rally, and price is compressing just under the Asia high late in the Asia session, about 3h before London open.
Support: 1.11623, 1.11549, 1.11491
Resistance: 1.11722, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 Asia high clears the Friday late-NY cap and opens the path to the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1162 higher low breaks the Asia higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.1155 swing low, then the 1.1149 Asia low
EZ Retail Sales (07:00 UTC) and the HCOB manufacturing PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) at London open could resolve the Asian range
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the larger USD risk to this read
03:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at Asia high · RSI 61 · price 1.11684
Weekend gap filled, higher lows inside Asian range.
The weekly open gapped down to the 1.1149 gap low. The gap filled during the Asia session as the USD softened on Iran-diplomacy headlines, carving a 1.1149–1.1171 Asian range with a higher low at 1.1162. Price is pressing the asia high at 1.1172, which coincides with the 50% retrace of Friday's 1.1206–1.1136 drop (fri drop fib). RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1149, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1200, 1.1206
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 asia high and 50% fib opens the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1206 friday high
Break of the 1.1162 higher low negates the Asia recovery and exposes the 1.1149 gap low, then the 1.1136 friday low
Eurozone Retail Sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs from 08:15 UTC, around London open, could break the Asian range
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the larger risk for the NY session
Weekend gap filled, higher low inside Asian range.
The Asia session closed Monday's opening gap back to Friday's 1.1166 close on a softer USD (Iran diplomacy), stalling at an asian high of 1.1171, just under Friday's 1.1172 late swing. The pullback held a higher low at 1.1162 near the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib. RSI(14) sits around 55 and ATR is near 4 pips going into late Asia.
Support: 1.11623, 1.11491, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11714, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1171 asian high opens the path toward the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1162 higher low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.1149 monday low
Below 1.1149, Friday's NY selloff low at 1.1136 (friday low) comes back into view
EZ Retail Sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs at 08:15–08:55 UTC around London open could materially shift this read
Monday gap filled; Asian range 1.1149–1.1171, higher lows under the 50% fib cap.
Monday opened with a ~12-pip gap lower to the 1.1149 monday low, and Asia has filled it as the USD softened on Iran diplomacy. The move has printed higher lows at 1.1155 and 1.1162, but the 1.1171 asian high sits on the 50% level of the fri sell-off fib (1.1206–1.1136), matching Friday's 1.1172 bounce high. RSI(14) is 58, ATR about 4 pips, mid-Asia session.
Support: 1.11623, 1.11491, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11714, 1.11791
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1171 asian high clears the 50% retracement and opens the 61.8% fib at 1.1179
Loss of the 1.1162 higher low breaks the asia higher lows trendline; below the 1.1149 monday low, the friday low at 1.1136 comes back into view
Eurozone Retail Sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs at 08:15–08:55 UTC around London open could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the NY-session risk for the USD leg
Monday's Asia session opened with a 12-pip weekend gap lower to the 1.1149 gap low, which has since filled on a softer USD tied to Iran diplomacy. The bounce stalled at the 1.1171 asian high, matching Friday's post-sell-off peak at 1.1172. Price is now easing into the 38.2% fib at 1.1163, sitting fractionally below EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.1163, 1.11549, 1.11491
Resistance: 1.11714, 1.12056
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1171 asian high clears the double cap and opens the path toward the 1.1206 friday high
Failure to hold the 1.1155 swing low exposes the 1.1149 gap low, which also aligns with Friday's 1.1150 low
EZ Retail Sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs from 08:15 UTC land around London open and could materially shift this read; US ISM follows at 15:00 UTC
02:31 UTC
Range after weekend gap, bounce stalling · RSI 50 · price 1.11632
Asian range 1.1149–1.1171, capped at Friday's bounce highs.
Monday's Asia session gapped lower to 1.1149 and the Asia leg recovered to the asia high at 1.1171, where Friday's NY bounce highs (1.1171/1.1172) capped again. Price is easing back to the 38.2% fib near 1.1163, with RSI(14) flat at 50. The bounce tracks a softer USD on Iran diplomacy, but the 1.1149–1.1171 Asian range is intact with no follow-through.
Support: 1.1155, 1.1149, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 asia high breaks the triple cap and opens the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the 1.1155 swing low (61.8% of the Asia leg) exposes the 1.1149 asia low
A break below 1.1149 confirms a lower low and puts the 1.1136 friday low in play
Eurozone Retail Sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs from 08:15 UTC could materially shift this read around London open
02:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend from the Asian low, stalling · RSI 61 · price 1.1167
Higher lows through Asia, capped below the 1.1172 prior high.
The weekend gap down to 1.1149 (asian low) filled through the Fri close at 1.1165. The Asia session then printed higher lows via the 1.1155 swing low on a softer USD, but price has flattened just under the 1.1172 prior high. Friday NY highs cap the same zone; ATR near 5 pips reflects thin Asian range conditions.
Support: 1.1165, 1.1155, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1200, 1.1206
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1172 prior high clears Friday NY highs and opens the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1206 friday high
Loss of the Fri close at 1.1165 puts the 1.1155 swing low and the rising trendline in focus
Break below the 1.1149 asian low reverses the Asia higher-low structure
EZ Retail Sales 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs 08:15/08:55 UTC around London open could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at the Asian high · RSI 58 · price 1.11682
Higher lows off the Sunday gap low, compressing under 1.1172.
Sunday's gap down to 1.1149 has been filled in the Asia session as a softer USD on Iran diplomacy lifted EUR. Higher lows are holding along the Asian trendline, and price is flattening just under the 1.1172 asian high, in the 38.2–50% fib zone of Friday's decline.
Support: 1.1166, 1.1155, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1175, 1.1200
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1172 asian high opens the fib 50% at 1.1175, then the 1.1200 round number
A break below the 1.1166 gap fill and the 1.1155 higher low breaks the Asian trendline and re-exposes the 1.1149 sunday low
EZ Retail Sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs at 08:15–08:55 UTC could set the London range
Higher-low chain off the gap low, pressing resistance.
Early Asia opened with a 12-pip weekend gap lower to the 1.1149 session low. The gap has since filled above the 1.1166 Friday close on a chain of higher lows, extending the rebound from Friday's USD-led NY sell-off. Price is sitting at the 50% retrace of that drop and just under the 1.1172 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 61 and not stretched.
Support: 1.1166, 1.1155, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1179, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1172 bounce high opens the 61.8% fib at 1.1179, then the 1.1200 round number.
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.1155 swing low would expose the 1.1149 session low and refill the gap.
Failure to hold the 1.1166 Friday close would turn the gap fill into a false break.
EZ Retail Sales at 07:00 UTC, HCOB PMIs from 08:15 UTC and ECB's Vujčić from 09:45 UTC could reset the Asian range around London open.
01:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia open · RSI 60 · price 1.11685
Weekend gap filled; stair-step HH/HL into Friday's late-session high.
Asia opened with a 12-pip gap lower to the 1.1149 gap low, since filled with a chain of higher lows off the 1.1155 asian hl. Price is now pressing the 1.1172 prior high, which coincides with the 50% fib of Friday's 1.1206–1.1136 selloff, with RSI(14) near 60 and a thin 5-pip ATR in mid-Asia trade.
Support: 1.11549, 1.11491, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.1190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 prior high / 50% fib opens Friday's 1.1190 breakdown zone
Loss of the 1.1155 asian hl breaks the rising Asia trendline and puts the 1.1149 gap low back in play, with the 1.1136 fri low below
Eurozone Retail Sales 07:00 UTC, HCOB PMIs 08:15–08:55 UTC and ECB's Vujčić from 09:45 UTC around London open could materially shift this read
Asian session higher lows after the open gap, testing Friday late high.
The week opened with a 12-pip gap down to an Asian low at 1.1149. That gap back to Friday's close at 1.1166 has filled, and price is now pressing the Friday late high near 1.1172, which is also the 50% retracement of Friday's NY slide that followed the USD rebound off 1.1214. RSI(14) is in the mid-50s and ATR(14) is about 6 pips, consistent with typical Asian session ranges.
Support: 1.11659, 1.11491, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1172 fri high breaks the 1.1136–1.1172 range and brings the 1.1200 round number into view
Slip back below the 1.1166 fri close returns focus to the 1.1149 asian low and the asian low trendline
Loss of 1.1136 fri low confirms a lower-low and extends Friday's slide
EZ retail sales (07:00 UTC) and HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) around London open could materially shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC is the main NY session risk
The Sunday open gapped about 12 pips below Friday's 1.1166 close and printed a 1.1149 sunday low. The gap has since filled, with an asia hl at 1.1155 and price pressing the 1.1172 fri pm high, which sits near the 50% of Friday's NY drop fib from 1.1206 to 1.1136. That NY slide came as the USD rebounded on tech risk-off, and Asia is now trading inside the post-drop range.
Support: 1.1155, 1.1149, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1200, 1.1214
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1172 fri pm high opens the 1.1200 round number, with the 1.1214 friday high above
A break of the 1.1155 asia hl negates the Asia rising support, and loss of the 1.1149 sunday low reopens the 1.1136 friday low
EZ retail sales (07:00 UTC) and HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) during the London open could reset the Asian range
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC in the NY session is the larger risk to this read
Tight Asian range 1.1149–1.1165 below unfilled weekend gap.
Friday's NY-open slide from 1.1206 to the 1.1136 friday low came on the USD rebound during the tech risk-off. The week opened on a gap down to 1.1149, the open low, and the Asian session has held a higher low at 1.1155 (asia hl), but the gap fill to Friday's 1.1166 close is not yet complete, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and EMAs flat overhead.
Support: 1.11549, 1.11491, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11659, 1.11724, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1166 gap fill opens the 1.1172 bounce high, which also sits at the 50% fib of Friday's drop
Failure to hold the 1.1155 asia hl and then the 1.1149 open low exposes the 1.1136 friday low
1.1200 round number caps the upside if the gap fill and bounce high both clear
EZ retail sales (07:00 UTC) and HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) during London could break the Asian range
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read in NY hours
00:31 UTC
Flat after Friday sell-off, early Asia rebound · RSI 43 · price 1.1160
Weekend gap down, Asian range 1.1149–1.1164 below gap fill.
Sunday's open gapped about 13 pips below Friday's 1.1166 close, the gap fill level. Early Asia has rebounded from the 1.1149 Sunday low but was capped twice at the 1.1164 Asian high, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of Friday's 1.1206–1.1136 drop. Price is pinned to EMA20 above the 1.1155 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR(14) around 6 pips.
Support: 1.11549, 1.11491, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11636, 1.11659, 1.11724
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1166 gap fill would leave the Asian range behind and bring the 1.1172 Friday swing high into view
Failure to hold the 1.1155 pullback low reopens the 1.1149 Sunday low; a break there exposes the 1.1136 Friday low
Eurozone retail sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs at 08:15–08:55 UTC could materially shift this read around London open
Vujčić at 09:45/10:00 UTC, Nagel at 12:00 UTC and US ISM at 15:00 UTC are later-session risk on December ECB hike and Fed pricing
00:16 UTC
Flat after Friday's sharp NY selloff · RSI 45 · price 1.11606
Monday Asia gap-down inside Friday's late 1.1150–1.1172 range.
Monday's Asia open gapped about 12 pips below the 1.1166 Friday close and dipped to an open low of 1.1149 before recovering to 1.1160. The gap is still unfilled. Friday's NY drop from 1.1206 to the 1.1136 friday low came as the USD rebounded on tech risk-off after the reversal from 1.1214. The bounce since then has been capped at the 1.1172 swing high, near the 50% retracement. Price is flat on EMA20 and RSI(14) is neutral near 45.
Support: 1.1155, 1.1149, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1166, 1.1172, 1.1200
What it said to watch
A gap fill to the 1.1166 fri close plus an M15 close above the 1.1172 swing high would bring the 1.1200 psych level back into range
Losing the 1.1155 pullback low, then the 1.1149 open low, exposes the 1.1136 friday low
EZ retail sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs at 08:15–08:55 UTC could reset the London session range
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the main USD risk during NY hours
00:01 UTC
Post-selloff consolidation, below both EMAs · RSI 41 · price 1.11563
Lower highs since Friday's NY drop; Sunday gap down into a tight open range.
Friday's NY sell-off ran from 1.1206 to the 1.1136 friday low as the USD rebounded on tech risk-off, and the bounces capped at the 1.1172 lower high. The Sunday open gapped down from 1.1166, and early Asia is holding an open low of 1.1149, in line with Friday's 1.1150 swing low, and an open high of 1.1164, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1164, 1.1172
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 lower high fills the weekend gap and breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1149 open low exposes the 1.1136 friday low
Eurozone retail sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs at 08:15–08:55 UTC around London open could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the NY-session risk for the open range