Range 1.1149–1.1172 under Friday's lower highs; gap down unfilled.
The Sunday open gapped about 13 pips below Friday's 1.1166 close. The early Asia bounce off the 1.1149 sunday low stalled just short of the gap fill. Price is boxed between 1.1149 and the 1.1172 lower highs, which formed after Friday's NY sell-off from 1.1206 to the 1.1136 friday low. That sell-off was a USD rebound on tech risk-off and a hawkish Fed, and the bounce from it capped at the 50% fib retrace.
Support: 1.11491, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11659, 1.11724
What it said to watch
A close back above 1.1166 fills the gap and puts the 1.1172 lower highs back in play.
Failure to hold the 1.1149 sunday low reopens the 1.1136 friday low.
EUR retail sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs at 08:15–08:55 UTC around London open could break the Asian range.
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the larger risk to this read in the NY session.
Weekly open gap below Friday close, range 1.1150–1.1172.
The Asia open gapped about 12 pips below Friday's 1.1166 close. The 1.1150 swing low held, and price has recovered to the 38.2% retracement of Friday's NY sell-off near 1.1163, with the gap fill still pending. Friday's USD rebound left a 1.1136 friday low, followed by a 1.1172 ny swing hi; price has been boxed between 1.1150 and 1.1172 since.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1166, 1.1172, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1166 gap fill and the 1.1172 ny swing hi opens the 50% retracement zone, with the 1.1200 round number next
Loss of the 1.1150 swing low exposes the 1.1136 friday low
EUR retail sales at 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs at 08:15–08:55 UTC could break the Asian range at London open
Thin Asia session liquidity; the range read is provisional until London open
23:17 UTC
Sideways after Friday's NY sell-off · RSI 46 · price 1.11617
Range 1.1150–1.1172, weekend gap nearly filled.
The Sunday open gapped about 12 pips below the 1.1166 Friday close. Early Asia dipped to 1.1149, holding the Friday swing low at 1.1150, then a 12-pip lift nearly closed the gap. Price now sits on the 38.2% retrace of Friday's NY sell-off from 1.1206 to 1.1136, driven by risk-off USD demand, with the 50% fib at 1.1172 capping two Friday rebounds.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11659, 1.1172, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1172 (50% fib) breaks the post-sell-off range top; 1.1200 round number sits next, below the 1.1206 Friday high
Failure to hold the 1.1150 swing low reopens the 1.1136 friday low
A full gap fill to the 1.1166 friday close is the first test, in thin Asia session liquidity
EZ Retail Sales (07:00 UTC) and HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) around London open could materially shift this read
Friday NY lower-high sequence; thin Asia range below the gap.
EUR/USD reopened about 12 pips below the 1.1166 friday close and is holding a thin early-Asia range just above the 1.1149 sunday low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36. Friday's NY slide on USD's risk-off rebound ran from 1.1206 to the 1.1136 friday low, and the rebound stalled at the 1.1172 swing high, close to the 50% fib of that drop.
Support: 1.11491, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11659, 1.11724
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 1.1166 friday close fills the weekend gap and neutralises the gap-down read
A break below the 1.1149 sunday low reopens the 1.1136 friday low
A close above the 1.1172 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Eurozone retail sales (07:00 UTC) and PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) around the London open could materially shift this read
Post-selloff range 1.1150–1.1172 broken lower by Sunday gap-down reopen.
Friday's NY-session slide from 1.1206 to the 1.1136 friday low tracked the risk-off USD rebound, and the recovery stalled at the 1.1172 swing high, near the 50% fib. Sunday reopened with a gap below the 1.1166 friday close; thin early Asia trade is holding just above the 1.1149 open low, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 1.11491, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11659, 1.11724
What it said to watch
A gap fill back to the 1.1166 friday close would neutralise the Sunday reopen weakness
Failure to hold the 1.1149 open low exposes the 1.1136 friday low
An M15 close above the 1.1172 swing high (50% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
EUR Retail Sales (07:00 UTC) and PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) around London open could materially shift this read
Sunday gap lower into the swing low under lower highs.
Sunday's open gapped about 13 pips below the 1.1166 Friday close and is now testing the 1.1150 swing low, with RSI(14) near 46. Friday's NY-session slide ran from the 1.1206 London high to the 1.1136 Friday low as USD firmed on tech risk-off. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib near 1.1172, where two lower highs capped it.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1166, 1.1172, 1.1206
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1150 swing low exposes the 1.1136 Friday low
A gap fill above the 1.1166 Friday close and a break of the 1.1172 lower highs would neutralise the pullback read
Thin Asia session liquidity until EZ Retail Sales (07:00 UTC) and the PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) around London open, which could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Downtrend after Friday NY sell-off, now consolidating · RSI 48 · price 1.11556
Lower high at 1.1172 below 50% retrace; Sunday gap down toward the swing low.
Friday's NY sell-off ran from 1.1206 to the 1.1136 ny low as risk-off dollar demand returned, and rebounds stalled at the 50% retrace near 1.1172, leaving a lower high. Sunday's open gapped about 12 pips below the 1.1166 fri close and tagged 1.1149 at the Friday swing low before a partial bounce in thin early Asia session trade.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1166, 1.1172
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1166 fri close fills the gap and puts the 1.1172 lower high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1149 swing low exposes the 1.1136 ny low
EUR PMIs from 08:15 UTC Monday and ECB speakers could shift the read once London opens
Higher lows from the 1.1136 NY low, capped at 1.1172 range top.
Friday's NY open broke below the London lows near 1.1176 and ran to an NY low of 1.1136 as the dollar firmed on tech-led risk-off. The rebound printed higher lows at 1.1140 and 1.1150 but met rejection twice at the 1.1172 range top, the 50% retracement of the NY drop fib, and closed the week compressed in a late range of 1.1163–1.1170.
Support: 1.11626, 1.11501, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.11791, 1.12056
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1172 range top exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1179 and then the london high at 1.1206.
A break below the 1.1163 late range low puts the 1.1150 higher low and the higher-low line in play. Losing 1.1136 resumes the NY low sequence.
A Sunday reopen gap away from 1.1166 would reset the late-Friday range read.
Eurozone PMIs from 08:15 UTC and the Nagel/Vujčić remarks Monday, then US ISM at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read.
21:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stabilising into the close · RSI 51 · price 1.11659
Lower high at 1.1206, NY low 1.1136, higher lows since.
The Asian high at 1.1214 and the London high at 1.1206 capped price before NY sold off to 1.1136 as USD firmed on tech/AI risk-off. The rebound stalled twice at the 50% fib near 1.1171. A higher low at 1.1150 left Friday closing in a tight 1.1163–1.1171 band, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1171, 1.1206
What it said to watch
A reopen gap away from the 1.1166 Friday close would reset the session levels
An M15 close above the 1.1171 50% fib opens the path to the 1.1206 london high
A break of the 1.1150 higher low and the rebound line exposes the 1.1136 ny low
Monday EUR PMIs (08:15 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
NY selloff to 1.1136, rising lows since, capped at 50% retrace.
Friday's NY selloff ran from the 1.1205 london high to a 1.1136 day low as the dollar rebounded on tech risk-off. The rebound stalled at 1.1172, the 50% retrace, and rising lows at 1.1140 and the 1.1150 swing low held. The window ended compressed in a 1.1163–1.1170 range, with 1.1163 as the range low.
Support: 1.1163, 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1205, 1.1214
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1172 (50% retrace) breaks the late-Friday range and opens the 1.1205 london high, then the 1.1214 asian high
Break below the 1.1150 swing low ends the rising-lows sequence and reopens the 1.1136 day low
The weekend open could gap away from 1.1166. Monday's EUR PMIs (08:15 UTC) and US ISM (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Post-selloff recovery, flat into weekly close · RSI 57 · price 1.11659
Asian-high rejection, NY low at 1.1136, higher lows into a tight late range.
Friday's 1.1214 Asian high was rejected, and a NY session sell-off on USD risk-off demand reached the 1.1136 NY low. Rising lows at 1.1140 and the 1.1150 pullback low lifted price into a 1.1163–1.1172 range into the weekly close, sitting on the 38.2% fib of the day's drop.
Support: 1.11626, 1.11501, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.11758, 1.12143
What it said to watch
Monday's open could gap away from the 1.1163–1.1172 range after the weekend
A close above the 1.1172 rebound high and 1.1176 London low brings the 50% fib into play
A break of the 1.1163 range low and the rising lows below the 1.1150 pullback low exposes the 1.1136 NY low
EZ Retail Sales 07:00 UTC and HCOB PMIs from 08:15 UTC Monday could materially shift this read
The 1.1214 Asian high stays the session ceiling while below the 50% fib
Higher lows pressing into a flat 1.1172 cap after NY selloff.
The Asian session high at 1.1214 held. London's rally stopped short at 1.1206, a lower high. NY then broke the Asian low at 1.1176 and fell to 1.1136 as USD rebounded on the tech risk-off. The late recovery was rejected twice at the 50% fib near 1.1172, and Friday closed in a tight band on a rising trendline from the NY low, with the 1.1150 swing low beneath.
Support: 1.1163, 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1176, 1.1206
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1172 50% fib, then the Asian low at 1.1176, would reopen the 1.1206 london high
Loss of the rising trendline near 1.1163 exposes the 1.1150 swing low and the 1.1136 NY low
Monday open gap risk, then EUR PMIs at 08:15 UTC and US ISM at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read