Lower highs from 1.1260; rebound off 1.1104 capped at 1.1214.
Pair broke the 1.1185–1.1260 range floor early in the week. The slide reached the 1.1104 17m low after the ECB before rebounding to 1.1214. That level printed a lower high, and a soft German HICP capped the move despite the GDP beat. Price now sits at the 50% retracement near 1.1166, above EMA20 but below EMA50, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 30 pips from sub-20 inside the earlier range.
Support: 1.1136, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1214, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1214 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.1260 range high back in view
Reclaim of the 1.1185 range floor would neutralise the range-break read
Loss of the 1.1136 swing low exposes the 1.1104 17m low; a close below extends the downtrend
Mon EZ PMIs, ECB Nagel 12:00 UTC and US ISM 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1260; higher low at 1.1136 off the 1.1104 base.
The 1.1185–1.1260 range broke lower into a sequence of lower highs and lows, bottoming at the 17m low of 1.1104 after the ECB hold. The rebound met rejection at 1.1214, near the 70% retrace of the decline from the 1.1260 range top. Price has since set a higher low at 1.1136 even as soft German HICP and firm USD capped EUR. ATR(14) has expanded to about 31 pips, and price sits between a flattening EMA20 and a falling EMA50.
Support: 1.1136, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1214 rejection high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1260 range top back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1136 higher low reopens the 1.1104 17m low
Mon ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) and EUR PMIs/ECB speakers (Nagel 12:00 UTC) could materially shift this read