Lower highs since the Sep 9 peak; compressing above the 1.1104 17-month low.
EURUSD has been in a two-month downtrend from the 1.1654 Sep 9 high. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and each rebound since late September has stalled at a lower high. Since mid-October the decline has compressed into a band roughly 1.1104–1.1269. Thursday's post-ECB print at the 1.1104 17-month low marginally undercut the 1.1113 oct low on a higher RSI low, a modest bullish divergence. Friday's rejection at 1.1214 kept the lower-high chain intact despite the Q3 GDP beat, with soft German HICP and USD demand capping rebounds.
Support: 1.1104, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1269, 1.1410
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 1.1104 17m low resumes the downtrend leg and voids the RSI divergence
Close above the 1.1214 fri reject level, then the 1.1269 range top, breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1410 prior high
Mon Eurozone PMIs/Retail Sales and ECB Nagel/Vujčić remarks on a December hike could shift the read
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC), midterms Tue and ADP Wed are the USD-side risks for this week's daily range
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening into a base · RSI 44 · price 1.11659
LH/LL chain from the early-Sep high; month-long consolidation near the lows.
The daily downtrend from the early-September 1.1654 high ran roughly 500 pips into early October. Since then it has flattened into a consolidation between the 1.1104 swing low and the 1.1276 range top, with each weekly rally capping lower (1.1269, 1.1260, 1.1214). The hawkish ECB pause and the Q3 GDP beat produced only a one-day bounce. Friday's rejection at the 1.1214 friday high left price below a flat EMA20 and a falling EMA50, with the soft German CPI and crowded EUR shorts framing the tape.
Support: 1.1104, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1276, 1.1314
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 1.1104 swing low (17-month low) extends the lower-low chain and opens the 1.1000 round number
Daily close above the 1.1214 friday high, then the 1.1276 range top, would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 38.2% fib at 1.1314
Mon EUR PMIs and ECB speakers (Nagel, Vujčić) plus US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could shift December-hike and yield pricing
Midterms Tue and payrolls later in the week are further USD-side catalysts against the range floor