Lower highs from 1.1276 day high, pressing 1.1250.
London broke the Asian range (1.1203–1.1231) and ran to a 1.1276 day high on USD softness and French budget relief, but NY was rejected at a 1.1269 lower high and late trade has slipped below the 1.1262 range top. Early Asia is pressing the 1.1250 psych level, just above the 1.1244 swing low that sits near the 38.2% fib of the London leg.
Support: 1.1250, 1.12444, 1.12308
Resistance: 1.1262, 1.12689, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1244 swing low exposes the 1.1231 asian high and the 50% fib near 1.1240
Recovery above the 1.1262 range top and the 1.1269 lower high reopens the 1.1276 day high
German Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC and FOMC Minutes later Wednesday could materially shift this read
Tight range below a lower high; rally intact above the NY low.
Price swept below the Asian range to 1.1203 on the German factory orders miss. It then reversed as the USD eased and ran to a day high at 1.1276. The NY pullback held the ny low at 1.1244, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the rally, and has since printed a lower high at 1.1269; price is now compressing in a 1.1254–1.1263 band into the Asia session, with RSI(14) at 44 and no setup in play.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244
Resistance: 1.1263, 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1254 range low exposes the ny low at 1.1244; failure there breaks the rally structure
M15 close above the 1.1263 range high and the lower highs trendline puts the 1.1269 lower high and 1.1276 day high back in view
Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC Wed could break the compression
Post-London breakout consolidation, lower highs vs higher lows.
After the German factory orders miss knocked EUR to 1.1203 late in the Asia session, London broke the 1.1231 Asian high and the London rally ran to a 1.1276 day high as the dollar eased. Since then a 1.1269 lower high and a 1.1254–1.1265 range have held through late NY into early Asia, with price compressing between lower highs and higher lows near the 23.6% retracement and RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1254 range low exposes the 1.1244 swing low and the 38.2% of the London rally near 1.1248
Loss of the 1.1244 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.1231 Asian high back in view
A close above the 1.1265 range top and the 1.1269 lower high reopens the 1.1276 day high
German Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC (f/c 0.5%) lands before London open; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC are the larger event risk for this range
Compression 1.1254–1.1265 under the lower-highs line after London reversal.
Early London swept the Asian low to 1.1203 on the German factory orders miss, then reversed to a 1.1276 session high as USD eased and French spread stress cooled. NY held the 38.2% fib near the 1.1244 ny low but printed a 1.1269 lower high, and price is now compressing between a 1.1254 range low and 1.1265 range top at EMA20 into early Asia, ATR(14) ~3.5 pips.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1250, 1.1244
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1254 range low and 1.1250 psych exposes the 1.1244 ny low and 38.2% fib
Close above the 1.1265 range top and 1.1269 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline, reopening the 1.1276 session high
Eurozone Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC around London open, then FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
Tight 1.1254–1.1265 range below the day high after an NY lower high.
London broke the Asian range top at 1.1231 and ran to a day high at 1.1276 as the USD eased with DXY back under 102.00. NY held the 1.1244 ny low and then printed a lower ny high at 1.1269. Since late NY, price has compressed between the 1.1254 range low and the 1.1265 range high, a shallow hold near the 23.6% of the London leg fib, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR(14) down to ~3.5 pips into the Asia session.
Support: 1.1254, 1.12444
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.12689, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1254 range low exposes the 1.1244 ny low, near the 38.2% of the London leg fib
M15 close above the 1.1265 range high reopens the 1.1269 ny high and the 1.1276 day high
ECB Cipollone (05:00 UTC) and German Industrial Production (06:00 UTC, f/c 0.5% m/m) land before London and could break the range
Tight 1.1254–1.1265 range below the 1.1276 session high.
After a dip on the German factory orders miss, EURUSD rallied from 1.1203 to a 1.1276 session high at the NY open as the USD eased. The pair has since compressed between the 1.1254 range low and the 1.1265 range top near the 23.6% fib, with the 1.1244 swing low holding between the 38.2% and 50% levels. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR(14) about 3.5 pips heading into Asia.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1254 range low exposes the 1.1244 swing low and the 50% fib near 1.1240
M15 close above the 1.1265 range top reopens the 1.1276 session high
ECB Cipollone (05:00 UTC) and German Industrial Production (06:00 UTC, f/c 0.5% m/m) are the next event risk; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
Tight range 1.1254–1.1265 below lower highs off the 1.1276 day high.
London broke the Asian range high at 1.1231 and ran to a 1.1276 day high as the USD eased with DXY back under 102.00. The NY session pulled back to a 1.1244 ny low, about the 38.2% fib of the Asia-low-to-day-high move, then capped at a lower high near 1.1269. Price has since compressed in a 1.1254–1.1265 range into the early Asia session, with ATR shrinking to under 4 pips.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 range high reopens the 1.1276 day high
Break of the 1.1254 range low exposes the 1.1244 ny low and the 38.2% fib near 1.1248
ECB Cipollone (05:00 UTC) and German IP (06:00 UTC, f/c 0.5% m/m) could break the Asian range
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC can reset the whole intraday structure
21:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after lower high · RSI 46 · price 1.12579
Post-NY compression 1.1254–1.1265 below a 1.1269 lower high.
EUR ran ~74 pips from the 1.1203 low around the 06:00 UTC factory-orders dip to a 1.1276 session high at noon UTC as the USD eased. NY printed a lower high at 1.1269, and price has since compressed above the 1.1254 range floor near the 23.6% fib of that rally in thin post-NY rollover trade. RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 1.1254, 1.12444
Resistance: 1.12689, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1254 range floor exposes the 1.1244 swing low near the 38.2% fib
Break above the 1.1269 lower high and the lower-high line reopens the 1.1276 session high
ECB Cipollone (05:00 UTC) and German IP (06:00 UTC, f/c 0.5% m/m) could shift the read into London open
Lower highs off 1.1276 compressing onto 1.1254 swing low.
London broke above the 1.1203–1.1231 Asian range and the NY open printed the 1.1276 day high as the USD eased. Lower highs at 1.1269 and 1.1265 have since pressed price onto the 1.1254 swing low into a thin Asia handover. The 1.1244 ny low sits just under the 38.2% retrace of the rally.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1254 swing low exposes the 1.1244 ny low and the 38.2% fib
Close above the 1.1265 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1276 day high
Loss of 1.1244 puts the 1.1231 asian high back in play
German IP at 06:00 UTC, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 1.1276 day high, compressing 1.1254–1.1265.
London reversed the early dip to 1.1203 that followed the German orders miss, then ran through the Asian high to a 1.1276 day high as the USD eased. NY has printed a lower high at 1.1269 and the price is now compressed between the 1.1254 range low and the 1.1265 range top under the lower-highs trendline into rollover, with ATR down near 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.1269 lower high and 1.1276 day high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1254 range low exposes the 1.1244 swing low near the 38.2% fib of the London rally
A deeper pullback through 1.1244 brings the 1.1231 Asian high, near the 61.8% fib, into play
German Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC (f/c 0.5% m/m) could set the tone for London
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and higher lows since the 1.1276 session high, compressing into the NY close.
London broke the Asian range top near 1.1231 and ran to a 1.1276 session high as the USD eased below DXY 102.00. NY then printed lower highs and higher lows into a pennant. Price now sits in a 1.1256 range low / 1.1265 range high band at the 23.6% of the london rally, hugging a flat EMA20, with RSI(14) near 52 and ATR around 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.1256, 1.12444
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 range high breaks the pennant top and opens the 1.1276 session high
Failure to hold the 1.1256 range low and the pennant base exposes the 1.1244 ny low, near the 38.2% of the london rally
Asia session typically keeps ATR compressed; German Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC could set the London tone, with FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC the larger event risk
20:46 UTC
Post-breakout drift, lower highs since day high · RSI 46 · price 1.12573
Asian range broken higher in London; late NY compressing in a ~10-pip range below a falling line of lower highs.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1231 after the 06:00 UTC dip to 1.1203 and ran to a 1.1276 day high, as a softer USD and narrower French spreads outweighed the German Factory Orders miss. Since then, lower highs at 1.1269 and 1.1265 have capped the pair. Late NY is compressing above the 1.1255 range base, with the NY low at 1.1244 sitting near the 38.2% fib and RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.1255, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1255 range base exposes the 1.1244 NY low / 38.2% fib
Close above the 1.1265 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.1276 day high
Loss of 1.1244 puts the Asian high at 1.1231 back in focus as retest support
ECB's Cipollone (05:00 UTC) and German Industrial Production (06:00 UTC, f/c +0.5% MoM) open Wednesday's European session and could reset the range
20:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, compressing late NY · RSI 51 · price 1.12586
Lower highs from 1.1276 day high, lows holding 1.1254–1.1256.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1231 and ran to a 1.1276 day high as the USD eased below DXY 102.00. NY then printed lower highs capped near the 1.1265 NY high, while demand held the 1.1256 NY low. Price is now pinned near 1.1259, around the 23.6% of the London rally fib, with ATR shrinking to about 3 pips into the late-NY close.
Support: 1.1256, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1256 NY low exposes the 1.1244 swing low, near the 38.2% London rally fib
M15 close above the 1.1265 NY high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.1276 day high
A slide back through the 1.1231 Asian high would unwind most of the London breakout
German Industrial Production (06:00 UTC) and ECB's Cipollone (05:00 UTC) around London open could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open; tight range after NY pullback.
The -10.6% German orders miss briefly knocked EUR to a 1.1203 london low at 06:00 UTC. The softer USD then drove a higher-low rally to a 1.1276 session high, and the NY dip held at the 1.1244 swing low. Since 16:00 UTC price has compressed into a 1.1254 range low to 1.1265 range top box, flat on EMA20 at the 23.6% fib, with ATR shrinking into the Asia session.
Support: 1.1254, 1.12444, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 range top reopens the 1.1276 session high
Loss of the 1.1254 range low exposes the 1.1244 swing low and the rising lows line
A break below the 1.1244 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and points back toward the 1.1203 london low
ECB's Cipollone (05:00 UTC) and German Industrial Production (06:00 UTC, f/c +0.5%) can break the range at the European open
20:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 54 · price 1.12589
Post-NY range 1.1254–1.1265 under lower highs; NY low held above Asia high.
Price washed out to 1.1203 at 06:00 UTC on the German orders miss, then London broke the Asia high at 1.1231 on broad USD softness and extended to a 1.1276 day high. The NY pullback held 1.1244, the ny low, near the 38.2% fib of the London rally. Since then a lower high at 1.1269 has formed and price sits in a tight 1.1254–1.1265 range after NY close, flat at ema20 with ATR around 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1265 range top and the 1.1269 lower high reopens the 1.1276 day high
Loss of the 1.1254 range low exposes the 1.1244 ny low and the 38.2% fib zone
A break back below the 1.1231 asia high undoes the London breakout
German Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC (f/c +0.5% MoM) could set the London session tone
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Uptrend from Asian low, now pausing below session high · RSI 50 · price 1.12576
London broke the Asian high at 1.1231 and ran to a 1.1276 session high at the NY open as the USD slid through DXY 102.00. Since then, price has compressed under a lower-high trendline while the 1.1254-1.1256 swing low holds. In late NY hours it sits just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.1255, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 lower high and trendline reopens the 1.1276 session high
Loss of the 1.1254 swing low exposes the 1.1244 ny low, close to the 38.2% fib of the London rally
A return to the 1.1231 asian high would unwind the London breakout
German Industrial Production (06:00 UTC Wed) could shift the read in early London; FOMC Minutes follow later Wednesday
19:31 UTC
Uptrend from London, now compressing · RSI 54 · price 1.12601
Lower highs vs higher lows since 12:00 UTC day high.
London broke the Asian range high at 1.1231 and extended to a 1.1276 day high by midday as the USD slid below DXY 102.00. NY has since printed lower highs at 1.1269 and 1.1265 above a 1.1244 pullback low and a 1.1254 swing low, with price coiling in a pennant around ema20 late in the NY session.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 lower high breaks the pennant top and puts the 1.1276 day high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1254 swing low exposes the 1.1244 pullback low, near the 38.2% of the London rally fib
ECB's Cipollone (05:00 UTC) and German Industrial Production (06:00 UTC) could reset the range into London
19:16 UTC
Uptrend paused, compressing below day high · RSI 49 · price 1.12602
Lower highs and higher lows since 1.1276, pennant forming late NY.
The London rally ran from the 1.1203 pre-open low through the Asian high at 1.1231 to a 1.1276 day high as the USD slipped below DXY 102.00. NY retraced to a 1.1244 low, close to the 38.2% fib, and has since compressed into a pennant between a 1.1265 lower high and a 1.1255 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral at 49 late in the NY session.
Support: 1.1255, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 lower high breaks the pennant top and reopens the 1.1276 day high
Loss of the 1.1255 swing low breaks the pennant base and exposes the 1.1244 NY low
Acceptance below 1.1244 opens the 1.1231 Asian high and the 61.8% retracement of the London rally
German Industrial Production (Wed 06:00 UTC) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Pennant of lower highs and higher lows after London rally.
London rallied off the 1.1203 Asian range low, broke the Asian range top at 1.1231 and printed a 1.1276 session high at 12:00 UTC as the USD pullback extended. Since then price has coiled in a pennant, with lower highs at 1.1276, 1.1269 and 1.1265 against higher lows at 1.1244 (ny low) and 1.1256. RSI(14) sits neutral near 48 in the after-London close lull.
Support: 1.1256, 1.1244
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1265 pennant top reopens the 1.1276 session high
Loss of the 1.1256 pennant base exposes the 1.1244 ny low, near the 38.2% retrace of the London rally
German IP (Wed 06:00 UTC) and Fed minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling into late NY · RSI 46 · price 1.12571
London swept below the Asian range to 1.1203, then rallied through the asian high at 1.1231 to a session high of 1.1276 as the USD and yields eased. Late NY is compressing under a lower high at 1.1265 and above the ny low at 1.1254. The 1.1244 swing low sits near the 38.2% fib of the London leg.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1254 ny low exposes the 1.1244 swing low and the 38.2% fib
Close above the 1.1265 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 1.1276 session high
Loss of 1.1244 puts the 1.1231 asian high back in play as support
German IP at Wed 06:00 UTC could reset the Asia-London structure
18:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now consolidating · RSI 47 · price 1.1259
Compression: lower highs off 1.1276, higher low at 1.1254.
The German factory-orders miss pushed EURUSD to 1.1203 into the London open, then a softer USD drove a 74-pip rally to the 1.1276 session high. NY hours have compressed between the 1.1244 NY low and a line of lower highs (1.1269, 1.1265), with a higher low at 1.1254. Price sits on EMA20 at the 23.6% level of the rally fib, and RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1265, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1254 higher low breaks the pennant and exposes the 1.1244 NY low near the 38.2% rally fib
Close above the 1.1265 lower high reopens the 1.1276 session high
Loss of 1.1244 brings the 1.1231 Asian high back into play
Wed 06:00 GMT EZ Industrial Production (f/c 0.5%) and FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 60 · price 1.12641
London broke Asian range high; NY compressing between lower highs and higher lows.
The German factory-orders miss drove a 06:00 GMT dip to 1.1203, then London broke the Asian high at 1.1231 as USD and yields eased, reaching a 1.1276 session high at midday. After London close, price is coiling in a pennant between a lower high at 1.1269 and higher lows at 1.1244 (NY low, inside the 38.2–50% fib of the London rally) and the 1.1254 swing low. RSI(14) ~60, price above EMA20/50.
Support: 1.1254, 1.12444, 1.12308
Resistance: 1.12689, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1269 lower high breaks the pennant top and brings the 1.1276 session high back into play
Failure to hold the 1.1254 swing low exposes the 1.1244 NY low; losing that deepens the London rally fib retracement toward the 1.1231 Asian high
EZ Industrial Production Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 0.5%) could materially shift this read
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher; lower high then higher low, coiling.
EURUSD dipped to 1.1203 on the German factory orders miss, then broke the Asian range at London open. Softer USD and lower oil carried it to a 1.1276 session high, past the ~1.1255 level the digest flags. Late NY trade is coiling between the 1.1269 lower high and the 1.1254 higher low, and the 1.1244 pullback low held near the 38.2% of the london rally fib.
Support: 1.1254, 1.12444
Resistance: 1.12689, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1269 lower high reopens the 1.1276 session high
Break of 1.1254 higher low exposes 1.1244 pullback low and the 38.2% london rally fib zone
Thin post-NY and Asia session liquidity may keep price inside 1.1254–1.1269
EZ Industrial Production Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 0.5%) could materially shift this read; FOMC minutes follow Wed 18:00 UTC
17:46 UTC
Uptrend from London, now compressing · RSI 57 · price 1.12616
Lower high 1.1269 vs higher low 1.1254 inside the 1.1244–1.1276 range.
London opened with a dip under the Asian range to 1.1203, then a 74-pip London rally broke the 1.1231 Asian high and ran to the 1.1276 day high as USD eased on lower oil and yields. The NY pullback held the 1.1244 swing low near the 38.2% retracement. Since the London close price has compressed between a lower high at 1.1269 and a higher low at 1.1254.
Support: 1.1254, 1.12444, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.12689, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1269 lower high reopens the 1.1276 day high
Break of the 1.1254 higher low exposes the 1.1244 swing low; losing that turns the London rally into a deeper retracement toward the 1.1231 Asian high
EZ Industrial Production Wed 06:00 GMT, around London open, could break the compression
17:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now pausing below a lower high · RSI 53 · price 1.12575
London impulse 1.1203→1.1276, NY pullback to 1.1244, lower high at 1.1269, late-NY compression.
The -10.6% German factory orders print knocked EURUSD to 1.1203 at the London open. London then reversed it through the Asian range and the softer USD and lower oil carried it to a 1.1276 session high. NY retraced roughly 38% of the move to a 1.1244 pullback low, bounced to a lower high at 1.1269, and price is now compressing between 1.1254 and 1.1260 after London close on a flat EMA20, RSI(14) ~53.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244, 1.1240
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1269 lower high breaks the NY down-sequence and reopens the 1.1276 session high
Loss of the 1.1254 pause low exposes the 1.1244 pullback low, then the 50% fib of the London rally near 1.1240
Asia session likely to stay inside 1.1254–1.1269 with ATR ~6 pips; a break of either side sets the next leg
EZ Industrial Production (Wed 06:00 GMT, f/c 0.5%) and ECB Cipollone at 05:00 GMT land at the London open and could reset this read; FOMC minutes follow at 18:00 UTC
Asian range broken higher; NY range 1.1244–1.1276 with a lower high at 1.1269.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1231 and ran to a session high of 1.1276 as USD eased with yields and oil, shrugging off weak EZ data. The 14:15 UTC swing low at 1.1244 held near the 38.2% of the London rally, but the 15:15 UTC rebound stalled at a lower high of 1.1269. Price is drifting at 1.1256 after London close, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.12444, 1.12308
Resistance: 1.12689, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1244 swing low breaks the NY higher-low and exposes the Asian high at 1.1231
M15 close above the 1.1269 lower high reopens the 1.1276 session high
EZ Industrial Production Wed 06:00 GMT is the next scheduled EUR risk; FOMC minutes follow Wed 18:00 UTC
Lower high 1.1269 under 1.1276 peak; range 1.1244–1.1276.
London lifted EURUSD from 1.1203, the double low after the German factory-orders miss, through the Asian high at 1.1231. Price was rejected at a 1.1276 session high as the USD eased with oil and yields. Since then a 1.1244 swing low and a 1.1269 lower high frame the range, and after London close price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 50.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1269 lower high voids the lower-high trendline and reopens the 1.1276 session high
Late low at 1.1254 is the first floor; failure at the 1.1244 swing low exposes the Asian high at 1.1231 and the 50% fib near 1.1240
EZ Industrial Production (06:00 GMT) and FOMC minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fading into late NY · RSI 45 · price 1.12569
Lower high at 1.1269 under 1.1276 session high; NY low 1.1244 intact.
London broke above the Asian high at 1.1231 after an early dip to 1.1203, as USD eased despite the -10.6% German factory orders miss, and ran to a 1.1276 session high. NY pulled back to a 1.1244 ny low near the 38.2% fib, then rejected at a 1.1269 lower high and is now just under EMA20.
Support: 1.12444, 1.12308
Resistance: 1.12689, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1244 ny low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1231 asian high
Close above the 1.1269 lower high reopens the 1.1276 session high and clears the descending highs
Wed 06:00 GMT EZ Industrial Production and Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC minutes are the next scheduled risks to this read
16:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below day high · RSI 53 · price 1.12616
Asian range broken higher; consolidation 1.1244–1.1276 with a lower high at 1.1269.
After a brief dip to 1.1203 on the German factory orders miss, London open broke the Asian range and the 1.1231 asian high. Price extended to a 1.1276 day high around midday as USD softened. NY hours pulled back into the 38.2–50% fib band, set a swing low at 1.1244 on rising support, and price now sits just above ema20 below a 1.1269 lower high.
Support: 1.1259, 1.1244, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1269 lower high reopens the 1.1276 day high
Break of the 1.1244 swing low and rising support exposes the 50% fib near 1.1240 and the 1.1231 asian high
Sustained trade below ema20 near 1.1259 shifts the consolidation toward its lower half after London close
EZ Industrial Production Wed 06:00 GMT and FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next event risk for this read
15:46 UTC
Uptrend, recovering after NY pullback · RSI 55 · price 1.12654
London range break, higher low at 1.1244 retesting toward the session high.
London broke above the 1.1203–1.1231 Asian range and ran to a 1.1276 session high, with lower oil lifting EUR despite weak eurozone data. The NY pullback held at 1.1244, near the 38.2% of the London rally fib and on rising support. Price has since rebuilt above the ema20 toward the 1.1269 NY high.
Support: 1.1260, 1.12444, 1.12308
Resistance: 1.12689, 1.12764, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1276 session high extends the higher-high sequence and opens the 1.1300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1244 NY low and rising support breaks the London higher-low chain; the 1.1231 asian high is the next level below
German Industrial Production (Wed 06:00 UTC) is the next scheduled EUR risk; FOMC minutes follow Wed 18:00 UTC
15:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, NY pullback held · RSI 58 · price 1.12633
London broke the Asian range; NY set a higher low at 1.1244.
The oil-led EUR bounce carried London out of the 1.1203–1.1231 Asian range to a 1.1276 session high. NY's pullback held the 1.1244 ny low, between the 38.2% and 50% fib levels, and price is now pressing the 1.1266 lower high with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.1244, 1.1231, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1266, 1.1276, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1266 lower high reopens the 1.1276 session high, then the 1.1300 round number
Close below the 1.1244 ny low breaks the higher-low read and exposes the 1.1231 asian high
Loss of the asian high puts the 1.1203 asian low and full London-move retracement in play
German Industrial Production Wed 06:00 UTC could reset the read before London open
15:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, NY pullback in progress · RSI 52 · price 1.12497
London range break, NY lower highs retesting the London shelf.
London cleared the 1.1231 Asian high and extended the London rally to a 1.1276 session high near 12:00 UTC, with the oil pullback and softer USD tone doing the work rather than the weak euro-area data. NY hours have printed lower highs from the 1.1266 NY high and the 1.1256 lower high, taking price back to the 38.2% retrace and the London shelf at 1.1241–1.1247. The NY low at 1.1244 is holding so far, and RSI(14) has cooled to a neutral 52.
Support: 1.12444, 1.1241, 1.12308
Resistance: 1.12564, 1.12657, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the NY low at 1.1244 and the London shelf at 1.1241 turns the retest into a failed breakout, with the 1.1231 Asian high next below
M15 close above the 1.1256 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1266 NY high and 1.1276 session high back in play
Bowman remarks (14:45 UTC) and the Cipollone / German Industrial Production releases overnight (05:00–06:00 UTC) could shift this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, NY pullback in progress · RSI 55 · price 1.12497
Lower highs off 1.1276 session high, retesting London range top near 1.1245.
London lifted out of the Asian range (asian high 1.1231) after the 06:00 UTC German factory-orders dip to 1.1203, extending the oil-driven EUR bounce to a session high at 1.1276. NY has faded the London rally with lower highs at 1.1266 and 1.1256. Price now sits at the 38.2% fib near 1.1248, just under the ema20, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 1.1244, 1.1240, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1251, 1.1256, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny low at 1.1244 extends the lower-high sequence toward the fib 50% at 1.1240 and the asian high at 1.1231
Recovery above the ema20 and the 1.1256 lower high breaks the NY lower-highs line; 1.1276 session high is next above
Bowman speech (14:45 UTC, now) could shift USD intraday; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk
14:31 UTC
Uptrend, NY pullback in progress · RSI 49 · price 1.12479
London breakout above Asian range, NY retesting the breakout shelf.
London broke out of the 1.1203–1.1231 Asian range and through the 1.1235–1.1248 morning shelf, printing a 1.1276 session high as USD eased on lower Treasury yields. NY has since retraced to the 38.2% fib near 1.1248, retesting the shelf top, with RSI(14) back near 49 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 1.1247, 1.1235, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1256, 1.1266, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1247 shelf top and the 1.1235 shelf low would mark a failed breakout and expose the 50% fib near 1.1240 and the 1.1231 Asian high
Reclaim of the 1.1256 NY high and the 1.1266 lower high reopens the 1.1276 session high
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift USD within the next bar
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back in early NY · RSI 56 · price 1.12545
London rally off 1.1203 topped at 1.1276; NY lower highs, holding above the 38.2% retrace.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian range low (1.1211) to 1.1203. The London rally then cleared the asian high at 1.1231 and ran about 74 pips to a session high of 1.1276 as oil-led EUR relief and softer US yields outweighed the run of eurozone data misses. Early NY has pulled back to a pullback low at 1.1247, near the 38.2% retrace, with a lower high capping at 1.1266 and price flat around EMA20.
Support: 1.12467, 1.12408, 1.12308
Resistance: 1.12657, 1.12764
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1247 pullback low opens the london base at 1.1241, roughly the 50% retrace of the London rally
Break above the 1.1266 lower high puts the 1.1276 session high back in focus
Loss of 1.1241 brings the old asian high at 1.1231 into play as the last support of the London rally
14:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 52 · price 1.12508
London broke Asian high; NY pullback with lower high, testing breakout zone.
London broke above the Asian high at 1.1231 and ran to a 1.1276 session high at 12:00 UTC, with EUR lifted by easing oil despite German orders and Eurozone retail misses. In early NY hours price set a lower high at 1.1266 and is now retesting the 1.1247–1.1250 breakout zone at the 38.2% level of the London leg fib, sitting just under EMA20.
Support: 1.12467, 1.12396, 1.12308
Resistance: 1.12657, 1.12764
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1247 pullback low exposes the 50% fib at 1.1240, then the Asian high at 1.1231
An M15 close above the 1.1266 lower high breaks the descending lower highs line and reopens the 1.1276 session high
Loss of the 1.1231 Asian high would undo the London breakout read
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift USD pricing and this read within the next bar
13:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 49 · price 1.12482
Higher highs from 1.1203 to 1.1276, first lower high at 1.1266.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1231 and ran to a 1.1276 session high as EUR extended its rebound from 17-month lows on softer oil. A lower high at 1.1266 around the 13:00 UTC ECB speakers has pulled price back to 1.1248 in the first hour of NY. That sits at the 38.2% retracement of the London leg, just above the 1.1241 breakout base, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and price under EMA20.
Support: 1.1241, 1.1231, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1266, 1.1276, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1241 breakout base exposes the asian high at 1.1231 and the 50% retracement near 1.1240–1.1231
Reclaim of the 1.1266 lower high and the pullback line reopens the 1.1276 session high, with the 1.1300 round number above
Loss of 1.1231 puts the 1.1203 day low back in focus
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read; FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk
13:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back in early NY · RSI 55 · price 1.12538
London breakout above Asian range; lower high 1.1266 after 1.1276 session high.
London broke the Asian range (1.1212–1.1231) higher after a brief false break to 1.1203. The London rally ran to a 1.1276 session high around midday on oil-led EUR relief. Early NY has rejected that high, printing a lower high at 1.1266 and a pullback low at 1.1251, with price sitting on the ema20 and RSI(14) cooled to ~55.
Support: 1.1251, 1.1241, 1.1234
Resistance: 1.1266, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1251 pullback low breaks the micro HL chain and exposes the london pivot at 1.1241, the 50% retrace of the London rally
Loss of 1.1234 london low would negate most of the London rally
Reclaim of the 1.1266 lower high puts the 1.1276 session high back in play
ECB speaker headlines on French spreads and Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
London HH/HL chain off 1.1203; range break to 1.1276, now retracing.
London lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1203 pre-open low, after a brief dip on the -10.6% German orders miss, and through the Asian range high. Late morning it broke the 1.1234–1.1248 consolidation to a 1.1276 session high, extending the oil-led relief bounce. Into the NY open, price has pulled back to a 1.1256 pullback low, sitting on the 23.6% level of the London rally fib, with RSI(14) cooling to ~58.
Support: 1.1256, 1.1248, 1.1234
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1256 pullback low puts the 1.1248 range top and the 38.2% London rally fib in play as a retest zone
An M15 close back below the 1.1234 range floor and the rising trendline would undo the London range break
An M15 close above the 1.1276 session high reopens the 1.1300 round number
ECB's Cipollone/Elderson (13:00 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) during NY hours could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 62 · price 1.12605
HH/HL chain since London open; first pullback after break of 1.1234–1.1248 range.
London dipped to 1.1203, then took out the Asian high at 1.1231. A 1.1234–1.1248 range broke late in London to a 1.1276 session high, extending EUR's relief bounce on lower oil. Price is now about 15 pips off that high and holding just above the rising trendline and the 23.6% fib near 1.1259.
Support: 1.1248, 1.1240, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1300
What it said to watch
ECB's Cipollone/Elderson at 13:00 UTC and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC fall in the first hour of NY and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 1.1248 range top turns the breakout into a deeper retracement toward the 1.1240 swing low
Loss of 1.1231, the Asian high, breaks the HL chain from London
Rejection at the 1.1276 session high keeps price capped below the 1.1300 psych level
12:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rejection off session high · RSI 64 · price 1.12634
HH/HL chain since London open; first pullback from 1.1276.
Buyers defended 1.1203 twice around London open after the German factory orders miss. Price then cleared the Asian range high, held a 1.1234–1.1248 range low/breakout lvl box through mid-London and extended to a 1.1276 session high, in line with the oil-driven EUR relief bounce. The 12:15 UTC bar during the ADP window printed a 12-pip rejection, now sitting just above the 1.1258 swing low and the rising trendline.
Support: 1.1258, 1.1248, 1.1234
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1258 swing low and rising trendline breaks the HL chain
Failure to hold 1.1248 breakout lvl (38.2% of the London rally) shifts the read to a deeper retracement toward the 1.1234 range low
Close above the 1.1276 session high reopens the 1.1300 round number
ECB Cipollone/Elderson 13:00 UTC, Fed Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending into NY open · RSI 73 · price 1.12687
HH/HL chain from 1.1203 Asian low; London range broken higher.
London cleared the Asian range high at 1.1231 shortly after the open from a double base at the 1.1203 Asian low. Price then held a 1.1235–1.1248 range and broke out late London to a 1.1271 session high, extending the oil-driven bounce through the mid-1.12s despite this morning's EZ data misses. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not extreme, and price is sitting just under the session high into the NY open.
Support: 1.1248, 1.1235, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1271, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1248 range top keeps the breakout read intact; a return inside 1.1235–1.1248 would flag a false break
M15 close above the 1.1271 session high opens the path to the 1.1300 round number
Loss of the 1.1235 range low exposes the 61.8% fib of the London rally near 1.1229, then the 1.1203 Asian low
ECB's Cipollone/Elderson at 13:00 UTC and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC, both within the hour, could materially shift this read
Higher highs/higher lows since 07:00 UTC; London range broken to upside.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1231 off a 1.1203 double low and built a higher-lows chain, then cleared the 1.1248 range top at 11:00 UTC to a 1.1271 session high, with RSI(14) near 74. The bounce tracks trimmed Fed-hike bets and lower oil despite today's euro-area data misses.
Support: 1.12481, 1.12343
Resistance: 1.12706, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1248 range top (38.2% fib of the London leg) would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the higher lows trendline and the 1.1234 range low breaks the London structure
Close above the 1.1271 session high opens the path to the 1.1300 round number
US ADP (12:15 UTC), ECB's Cipollone/Elderson (13:00 GMT) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) land around the NY open and could materially shift this read
11:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended at session high · RSI 75 · price 1.1264
HH/HL chain from the session low; 1.1234–1.1248 range broken higher.
EUR shrugged off the -10.6% German factory orders miss, with lower oil and trimmed Fed-hike bets in support. The early dip to the session low at 1.1203 was a sweep below the Asian range that reversed, and London built higher highs and higher lows through the Asian high at 1.1231. Price then broke out of the 1.1234–1.1248 range to a session high at 1.1266, with RSI(14) near 75: hot, but not extreme.
Support: 1.1248, 1.1234, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1266, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Holding above the range top at 1.1248 keeps the breakout intact; a move back inside 1.1234–1.1248 would mark a false break
Loss of the rally trendline (~1.1244) and the range low at 1.1234 (50% of the London rally fib) points to a deeper pullback toward the session low at 1.1203
An M15 close above the session high at 1.1266 opens the path to the 1.1300 round number
ADP (12:15 UTC), ECB's Cipollone/Elderson (13:00) and Fed's Williams (13:05) land in the first hour of NY and could materially shift this read
Breakout above Asian range, tight consolidation below session high.
London lifted EURUSD off the 1.1203 Asian low and through the 1.1231 Asian high. Weak German orders and EZ retail misses were offset by softer USD. The 08:15 UTC retest held at 1.1226, the 50% of the London leg fib. Price is now compressing in a 7-pip band beneath the 1.1248 session high, just shy of the 1.1250 round number where the digest flags rebounds being capped; RSI(14) is near 62 with no extreme.
Support: 1.12343, 1.12308, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12481, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1250 round number clears the session high and the digest's rebound cap
Break of the 1.1234 swing low and the rising lows line exposes the Asian high at 1.1231, the 38.2% of the London leg fib
Return inside the Asian range below 1.1231 turns the breakout into a false break, with the Asian low at 1.1203 next
ADP (12:15 UTC), ECB Cipollone/Elderson (13:00) and Fed's Williams (13:05) around the NY open could shift this read
Asian range break higher, compressing under session high.
EUR shrugged off the German factory orders miss: the 06:00 UTC dip to the 1.1203 data low reversed as softer USD took over. London then broke the Asian high at 1.1231 and retested it near 1.1226, and the pair is now compressing mid-London under the 1.1248 session high, just shy of the 1.1250 round number the digest flags as the rebound cap. The 38.2% fib of the 1.1203-1.1248 leg sits on the Asian high.
Support: 1.1234, 1.1231, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1248, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1248 session high and the 1.1250 round number extends the London breakout
Loss of the 1.1234 swing low puts the 1.1231 asian high / 38.2% fib retest back in play
Back below the asian high exposes the 1.1203 data low and negates the range break
ADP 12:15, ECB Cipollone/Elderson 13:00 and Fed Williams 13:05 UTC into the NY open could shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 66 · price 1.12458
Asian range break higher, higher lows pressing a flat 1.1248 top.
Price held a double low at 1.1203 after the German factory orders miss, then London broke the 1.1231 Asian high as USD softness offset the weak data. Mid-London, the rally is compressing beneath the 1.1248 session high and 1.1250 round number, the macro read's rebound cap, with higher lows riding a rising trendline and RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.12409, 1.12343, 1.12308
Resistance: 1.12481, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1250 round number extends the London rally through the flagged 1.1230-1.1250 cap
Break of the 1.1241 higher low and London trendline exposes the 1.1234 swing low
Loss of the 1.1231 Asian high (38.2% of the London rally) puts price back inside the Asian range
ECB's Cipollone/Elderson at 13:00, ADP at 12:15 and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC, plus French bond headlines, could shift this read
London breakout above Asian range, tight consolidation 1.1234–1.1248.
The London leg from 1.1203 broke the Asian high at 1.1231 and has since compressed under the 1.1248 session high, printing a higher low at 1.1234 after the soft EZ retail sales print. USD softness on faded Fed hike bets is offsetting weak EZ data, and RSI(14) near 67 is not stretched.
Support: 1.12343, 1.12308
Resistance: 1.12481, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1248 session high brings the 1.1250 round number into play, the rebound cap flagged in the market digest
Close below the 1.1234 higher low exposes the Asian high at 1.1231, which is also the 38.2% retrace of the London leg
Re-entry into the Asian range below 1.1231 invalidates the breakout read
ADP 12:15, ECB Cipollone/Elderson 13:00 and Fed Williams 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range high; higher lows into a flat 1.1247 top.
After a twice-tested day low near 1.1203 around the German factory orders miss, London rallied through the 1.1231 Asian high as USD softness outweighed weak EZ data. Price is now compressing on higher lows beneath the 1.1247 session high, inside the 1.1230-1.1250 zone where recent bounces have been capped.
Support: 1.12343, 1.12308, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12472, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1247 session high and the 1.1250 round number extends the London rally; repeated rejection there confirms the cap
Loss of the 1.1234 higher low and the 1.1231 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break; the 50% London rally fib sits near 1.1225
A move back through the 1.1203 day low would erase the London rally
ADP 12:15 UTC, ECB Cipollone/Elderson 13:00 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL off the London low; consolidating above the broken Asian high.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1231 despite the German factory orders miss and printed a session high at 1.1247 as USD eased in Europe. Dips have since held 1.1234, above the old Asian high and the 38.2% of the london leg fib, with RSI(14) cooling to 62 and rising support from the 1.1203 london low intact.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1226, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1247, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1231 asian high returns price to the Asian range and exposes the 1.1226 swing low
Break of rising support toward the 1.1203 london low would undo the London breakout
M15 close above the 1.1247 session high puts the 1.1250 round number in play
ADP 12:15 UTC, ECB Cipollone/Elderson 13:00 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London open, Asian range broken higher.
The German orders miss knocked price to a double low at 1.1203 into London, but the London open reversed it and broke the Asian high at 1.1231 as DXY eased in Europe. Price has since printed higher highs and higher lows to a session high at 1.1247. Mid-London it is consolidating above the 1.1234 swing low, with RSI(14) cooled to around 61.
Support: 1.12343, 1.12308, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12466, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1234 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and puts a retest of the asian high at 1.1231 in play; the fib 38.2% sits there too
Clearance of the 1.1247 session high and the 1.1250 round number extends the London breakout
Loss of the rising trendline from 1.1203 shifts focus back toward the double low
ADP 12:15 UTC, ECB Cipollone/Elderson 13:00 GMT and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
09:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into rebound cap · RSI 67 · price 1.12434
London range break above Asian high, higher-low chain.
The German orders miss pushed price to a 1.1203 london low just before London open. The London leg then broke the 1.1231 Asian high and printed a 1.1247 session high, and the 1.1226 pullback low held to extend the higher-low chain. RSI(14) is near 67 with price pressing the 1.1230–1.1250 rebound cap.
Support: 1.1231, 1.12258, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12466, 1.1250
What it said to watch
EZ Retail Sales releasing on the current bar (09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a slide back into the Asian range
M15 close above the 1.1250 round number clears the session high and the rebound cap
M15 close back below the 1.1231 asian high turns the range break into a false break
Loss of the 1.1226 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline; below that, the 61.8% of the London leg fib sits near 1.1220 ahead of the 1.1203 london low
Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC is the next scheduled USD-side risk
08:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London open, extended · RSI 66 · price 1.12446
Asian range high broken, higher low at 1.1226, fresh session high.
The dip on the German factory orders miss stalled in a double bottom at the 1.1203 Asian low. London then broke the 1.1231 Asian high and printed a 1.1247 session high, with a higher low at 1.1226 holding on the way up. Price is now pressing the 1.1250 round number at the top of the 1.1230–1.1250 rebound cap flagged in the macro digest, RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1226, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1247, 1.1250
What it said to watch
EZ Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a slide back toward the Asian high
A close back below the 1.1231 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1226 higher low, near the 50% of the London rally fib, breaks the London trendline
Acceptance above the 1.1250 round number clears the session high; rejection there keeps 1.1230–1.1250 as a cap
Failure back through the 1.1203 Asian low negates the double bottom
Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC is a NY-session risk to the move
Asian range broken higher at London open, pullback retesting the Asian high.
The dip to the 1.1203 asian low on the German factory orders miss was absorbed. London open then broke the 1.1231 asian high to a 1.1242 london high, where a rejection pulled price back to retest the breakout. The pullback low at 1.1226 sits just above the 38.2% fib of the 1.1203–1.1242 leg; RSI(14) is near 57 and ATR is about 8 pips.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1211, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1242, 1.1250
What it said to watch
EZ Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1226 pullback low undoes the asian high retest and exposes the 1.1211 swing low
M15 close above the 1.1242 london high opens the 1.1250 round number, the digest's cap zone
Loss of the 1.1203 asian low would turn the London breakout into a false break
ECB Cipollone/Elderson at 13:00 UTC and Fed Williams at 13:05 UTC are the next event risk
08:16 UTC
Rangebound, London spike rejected · RSI 57 · price 1.12285
False break above Asian high, back inside 1.1203–1.1231 range.
The German factory orders collapse (-10.6% m/m) knocked the pair to a 1.1203 session low at 06:00 UTC. London open then ran it through the 1.1231 asian high to a 1.1242 london high, but a sharp rejection pulled price back below the asian high, inside the 1.1230–1.1250 cap flagged in the digest. Price is sitting just above the 50% fib of the London leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.1223, 1.1212, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1242, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1231 asian high reopens the 1.1242 london high and the 1.1250 round number
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 1.1223 exposes the 1.1212 asian low and the 1.1203 session low
EZ Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC could shift this read; ECB Cipollone/Elderson at 13:00 UTC are the next EUR risk
Asian range broken higher after a false break of its low.
The German factory orders miss knocked price through the Asian range low to a London low at 1.1203. It then reversed, consistent with the crowded EUR shorts flagged in the digest. The London rally cleared the asian high at 1.1231 and the prior high at 1.1224 to a session high of 1.1242, with RSI(14) near 65 and the 1.1250 round number cited as the cap on rallies just above.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1224, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1242, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.1231 returns price to the range and weakens the breakout read
The 50% retracement of the London rally sits near the prior high at 1.1224, an area to watch on any pullback
M15 close above the 1.1250 round number clears the cap on rallies cited in the digest
Loss of the london low at 1.1203 turns the session structure lower
EZ Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC, then ECB's Cipollone/Elderson at 13:00 UTC and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Range, rebounding off data low · RSI 61 · price 1.12289
Higher low at 1.1203, retesting asian high at 1.1231.
The German factory orders miss (-10.6% m/m) pushed EUR/USD down to a 1.1203 data low late in Asia. The London open reversed that move and took price back to the 1.1231 asian high, where it now sits just under the cap with RSI(14) near 61. The data low leaves a higher low above Monday's 1.1186 trough, and the 1.1224 prior high is the nearest reference below.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1211, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1231 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 1.1250 round number
A rejection at 1.1231 followed by a loss of the 1.1224 prior high brings the 1.1211 london low back into view; that level sits near 1.1214, the 61.8% of the London leg fib
A break of the 1.1203 data low undoes the London reversal
Eurozone Retail Sales at 09:00 GMT could materially shift this read; a miss puts the 1.1200 area back in play
ECB Cipollone/Elderson (13:00 GMT) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) are the next volatility points
07:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off Asia peak · RSI 46 · price 1.12148
Back inside Asian range after false break of its low; London open spike rejected.
The German factory orders miss at 06:00 GMT pushed EUR/USD through the asian low at 1.1211 to a data low of 1.1203, which held on a second test into London open. The first London push to 1.1223 was rejected, extending the lower highs from the 1.1231 asian high, with price now pinned near EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral at ~46.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1203, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1223, 1.1231
What it said to watch
Eurozone Retail Sales at 09:00 GMT could break the 1.1203–1.1231 band; a miss and a close below the data low at 1.1203 open the prior low at 1.1186
M15 close above the london high at 1.1223 breaks the lower highs line and puts the asian high at 1.1231 in play
Holding below the 50% retrace of the asia high–data low leg (~1.1217) keeps the post-data drop intact
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1211 turns the false break into a fresh range break lower
07:17 UTC
Sideways, rebounding off London low · RSI 55 · price 1.12182
Asian range 1.1211–1.1231; false break lower at London open, price back inside.
The German Factory Orders miss (-10.6% m/m) at 06:00 GMT pushed EURUSD through the 1.1211 asian low. Demand held the 1.1203 london low three times, and price is back inside the range at 1.1218 in the first hour of London. Overhead, price is pressing the fib 61.8 at 1.1220 (Asian high to London low drop), with a 1.1224 lower high and the 1.1231 asian high capping above. RSI(14) is near 55 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 1.12112, 1.12027, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.12244, 1.12308
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the fib 61.8 at 1.1220 and the 1.1224 lower high puts the 1.1231 asian high back in play
M15 close back below the 1.1211 asian low turns the false break into a range break and reopens the 1.1203 london low
Failure to hold the 1.1203 london low exposes the prior low at 1.1186
Eurozone Retail Sales at 09:00 GMT could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams follows at 13:05 GMT
07:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 1.12091
Broke below Asian range on data, bounce stalling under Asian low.
German factory orders (-10.6% m/m) knocked EUR/USD from 1.1214 to a 1.1203 data low, breaking the Asian range and finding demand at the 61.8% fib of yesterday's 1.1186–1.1231 rally. Lower highs have run from the 1.1231 Asian high, and the London-open bounce is stalling under the 1.1212 Asian low with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1212 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and tests the lower-highs line near 1.1222
Failure to hold the 1.1203 data low and 61.8% fib exposes 1.1200 and yesterday's 1.1186 prior low
Eurozone Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC, then ECB Cipollone/Elderson and Fed's Williams from 13:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 1.12083
Asian range broken lower, retest of Asian low from below.
Asia carved a series of lower highs from the 1.1231 Asian high. EUR/USD then broke the 1.1211 Asian low as German Factory Orders collapsed 10.6% m/m, setting the orders low at 1.1203. Ahead of London open, price is retesting 1.1211 from below, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1224, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1211 Asian low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.1203 orders low exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1186 prior low
Close above the 1.1224 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Eurozone Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams speaks at 13:05 UTC
06:32 UTC
Intraday down-leg from Asia high, momentum soft · RSI 38 · price 1.12065
Lower highs through Asia, Asian range low broken at 06:00 UTC.
Asia printed a run of lower highs off the 1.1231 asian high. The 06:00 UTC drop, around the Factory Orders slot, broke the 1.1211 asian low and stalled at 1.1203, the 61.8% fib of Monday's rally from the 1.1186 monday low. EUR remains weighed by French fiscal and Spanish election stress, and the pair sits pre-London open with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.12029, 1.1200, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12112, 1.12244, 1.12308
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1211 asian low negates the range break
Loss of the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1186 monday low
Close above the 1.1224 lower high breaks the asia lower highs sequence
Eurozone Retail Sales 09:00 UTC, then ECB Cipollone/Elderson 13:00 UTC and Fed Williams 13:05 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 38 · price 1.12052
Asian range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows, price testing the 61.8% fib.
Asia printed a run of lower highs from the 1.1231 Asian high. The 06:00 UTC bar, which lined up with the EUR factory orders release, broke the 1.1211 Asian low and dropped price into the fib 61.8 retracement of the 1.1186–1.1231 rebound at 1.1203. Price is holding just above the 1.1200 round number ahead of London open, RSI(14) near 38, with EUR still weighed by French fiscal stress.
Support: 1.12032, 1.1200, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12112, 1.12244, 1.12308
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1211 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1186 ny swing low
Reclaim of the 1.1224 lower high breaks the Asian downtrend sequence; the 1.1231 Asian high caps above
Eurozone Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB Cipollone/Elderson at 13:00 UTC and Fed Williams at 13:05 UTC are the next event risk
06:01 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, lower highs forming · RSI 43 · price 1.12113
Lower-high sequence off 1.1231, pressing Asian low pre-London.
The Asian session was rejected at the 1.1231 high. Since then price has printed lower highs at 1.1224 and 1.1221 and is now pressing the 1.1211 Asian low into the London open, with RSI(14) near 43 and price below both EMAs. It has retraced past the 38.2% level (1.1214) of the 1.1186–1.1231 rally fib as EUR stays heavy on French fiscal stress.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1211 asian low opens the 1.1200 round number and the 50% fib near 1.1209
Loss of 1.1200 exposes yesterday's 1.1186 ny low
Close back above the 1.1224 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the 1.1231 asian high
Eurozone Retail Sales (09:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) could materially shift this read
Late Asian range, lower highs pressing the Asian low.
Late Asia session, rotating inside the 1.1212–1.1231 Asian range after a rejection at the Asian high. Lower highs at 1.1224 and 1.1221 sit on a descending trendline and are pressing toward the Asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the NY-Asia rally from the 1.1186 NY low. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips, with EUR still heavy on French fiscal stress into London open.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1212 Asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.1200 round number
Loss of 1.1200 puts the 1.1186 NY low back in play and fails the NY-Asia rally
Close above the 1.1224 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 1.1231 Asian high
German Factory Orders (06:00 UTC) and Eurozone Retail Sales (09:00 UTC) around London open could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Intraday fade inside a recovered range · RSI 49 · price 1.12157
Lower highs since 1.1231 Asian high, pressing the Asian low.
Asia rejected the 1.1231 Asian high and has printed lower highs since, leaving price at 1.1216 just above the 1.1212 Asian low with London open about 90 minutes out. Price sits near the 38.2% fib of Monday's NY recovery from 1.1186, and EUR stays heavy on French fiscal stress per the digest.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1212 Asian low opens the 1.1200 round number, near the 50% fib at 1.1209
M15 close above the 1.1224 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and brings the 1.1231 Asian high back into view
German Factory Orders (06:00 UTC), London open (07:00 UTC) and Eurozone Retail Sales (09:00 UTC) can expand the 4-pip ATR range
05:17 UTC
Monday uptrend stalled, compressing in late Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.12184
Lower high below Asian high, higher low above Asian low.
Monday's rally from 1.1169 has stalled after the rejection at the 1.1231 Asian high. Since then a lower high at 1.1224 and a micro low at 1.1216 are squeezing price around flat EMAs, with rising lows from 1.1186 still intact. The digest flags French fiscal stress as the driver keeping EUR bounces capped.
Support: 1.12156, 1.12119, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.12308, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 lower high reopens the 1.1231 Asian high; acceptance above it targets the psych 1.1250 cap
Loss of the 1.1212 asian low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.1200 round number
London open in under 2h, plus EZ Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC, could break the compression
Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read
Pullback holding above the 38.2% of the Monday rally (~1.1207) keeps the higher-low sequence intact
05:02 UTC
Flat, drifting lower inside Asian range · RSI 43 · price 1.12167
Asian range 1.1212–1.1231, lower high at 1.1224.
Asia set a 1.1212–1.1231 range after Monday's grind up from the 1.1169 London low. Price sits at 1.1217, below EMA20/50, with a lower high at 1.1224 and RSI(14) near 43. EUR's bounce off 1.1161 is stalling as DXY holds firm, and ATR is about 4 pips heading into London.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1197
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1212 asian low exposes the 1.1197 ny swing low
M15 close above the 1.1224 lower high and the 1.1231 asian high breaks the lower-highs line
German Factory Orders (06:00 GMT) and Eurozone Retail Sales (09:00 GMT) could break the Asian range
Higher-low chain since London Monday; Asian range 1.1212–1.1231 with a lower high at 1.1224.
EUR's recovery from Monday's 1.1169 window low held a higher-low chain through NY, but the Asia spike to the 1.1231 asian high was rejected and the 1.1224 asian lh capped the rebound. Price sits mid-range on ema20 with the rising trendline from the 1.1186 ny low near 1.1216, just above the 1.1212 asian low.
Support: 1.12119, 1.12072, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.12308, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1212 asian low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the fib 38.2 at 1.1207 and the 1.1186 ny low
Close above the 1.1224 asian lh and the 1.1231 asian high reopens the 1.1250 psych area
Factory Orders 06:00 GMT and Eurozone Retail Sales 09:00 GMT could resolve the Asian range around London open
04:31 UTC
Higher lows, stalling below Asian high · RSI 45 · price 1.12195
Late-Asia consolidation inside 1.1212–1.1231 Asian range.
Late Asia, price is chopping mid-range after a rejection from the 1.1231 asian high, with the bounce capped at the 1.1224 prior high. The higher lows from Monday's 1.1186 ny low through the 1.1197 swing low remain intact, and the 1.1212 asian low held near the 38.2% fib of the ny-asia rally while French spread stress keeps EUR fragile.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1197, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1212 asian low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 1.1197 swing low
Close above the 1.1231 asian high reopens the 1.1250 round number
Loss of the 1.1186 ny low unwinds the whole ny-asia rally
EZ Factory Orders 06:00 GMT and Retail Sales 09:00 GMT around London open could shift this read; OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the main EUR driver
04:17 UTC
Rising lows, flattening in Asia · RSI 46 · price 1.1219
Inside Asian range 1.1212–1.1231, lower high at 1.1224.
Asia is holding a 1.1212–1.1231 range after a rejection at the Asian high, and price sits mid-range near 1.1219 with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and EMA20 flat. Rising lows from the 1.1186 NY low are intact, with EUR pinned near 1.12 by French spread stress and a yield-led USD.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1197, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1212 asian low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 1.1197 swing low
Close above the 1.1224 late-ny high and the 1.1231 asian high opens the path to the 1.1250 round number
EZ Factory Orders (06:00 GMT) and Retail Sales (09:00 GMT) during London could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below asia high · RSI 55 · price 1.12219
Higher lows from 1.1186 ny low; Asia false break above 1.1224 prior high.
Asia pushed through Monday's 1.1224 prior high to a 1.1231 asia high, then reversed to a 1.1212 asia low that held at the 38.2% fib of the rally from the 1.1186 ny low. Late in the Asia session, price is back at 1.1222 retesting the prior high. The higher-low chain and rising trendline are intact despite French spread stress weighing on EUR.
Support: 1.12119, 1.11972, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.12308, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 asia high resumes the higher-high chain and puts the 1.1250 round number in play
Break of the 1.1212 asia low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1197 swing low, then the 1.1186 ny low
Eurozone Factory Orders (06:00 GMT) ahead of London open, then Retail Sales at 09:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC and any fresh OAT-Bund spread headlines are the next catalysts in NY hours
Asian range 1.1212–1.1231, failed push above prior high.
Early-Asia spike above Monday's 1.1224 prior high was rejected at 1.1231 and fully unwound as French deficit worries resurfaced. Price is now late in the Asia session, holding just above the 1.1212 Asian low with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1197
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1212 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.1197 swing low
Recovery back above the 1.1224 prior high puts the 1.1231 asian high back in play
Factory Orders (06:00 GMT) and Eurozone Retail Sales (09:00 GMT) could shift this read in the London session
Mid-Asian range 1.1212–1.1231 after session-high rejection.
Late Asia: the push through Monday's 1.1224 NY high was rejected at the 1.1231 Asian high as French deficit worries resurfaced. Price retraced to the 1.1212 Asian low, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.1186–1.1231 leg, and now sits mid-range with RSI(14) at 47. Rising support from Monday's London-NY swing lows is still intact.
Support: 1.12119, 1.11972
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.12308, 1.1250
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1212 asian low and rising support confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1197 swing low
An M15 close above the 1.1224 ny high reopens the 1.1231 asian high; clearing it brings the 1.1250 round number into view
EZ Factory Orders (06:00 GMT) and Retail Sales (09:00 GMT) around London open, plus OAT-Bund spread headlines, could shift this read
03:01 UTC
Rebound from 1.1161 low, stalling in late Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.12138
False break above 1.1224, pullback to 50% fib of 1.1197–1.1231 leg.
Asia pushed through Monday's 1.1224 late-NY high to a 1.1231 asia high, then reversed. Price now sits at 1.1214, on the 50% fib and the asia low, with RSI(14) at 42 and price below both EMAs. Monday's recovery from 1.1161 is intact while the 1.1197 swing low holds, with EZ spreads still the main driver.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1197
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1231
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1212 asia low exposes the 1.1197 swing low
Recovery above the 1.1220 london high neutralises the false break, with the 1.1231 asia high next
German Factory Orders 06:00 GMT and EZ Retail Sales 09:00 GMT could shift this read into London open
ECB's Cipollone/Elderson and Fed's Williams around 13:00 GMT add NY-session event risk
02:46 UTC
Recovery leg stalling, pulling back from Asia high · RSI 41 · price 1.12122
False break above 1.1224, lower-high/lower-low sequence since the 1.1231 Asia high.
Late in the Asia session, price pushed through Monday's 1.1224 prior high to an Asia high at 1.1231 and was rejected. It has since given back the session gain to sit on the 1.1212 Asian low, just under the 38.2% fib of the ny low–asia high move, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41. Below sit the 1.1200 psych and the 1.1186 NY low that anchored Monday's rebound from the 1.1161 low, which followed the French-spread-driven selloff.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 closes below the 1.1212 Asian low open the 1.1200 psych and the 50–61.8% fib zone at 1.1209–1.1203
Recovery above the 1.1224 prior high negates the false break and puts the 1.1231 Asia high back in play
Loss of the 1.1186 NY low would undo Monday's rebound structure
German Factory Orders 06:00 GMT and EZ Retail Sales 09:00 GMT land in the London morning and could reset the session range
Higher lows since 1.1161 flush, Asian high rejected.
The rebound from Monday's 1.1161 flush on French and Spanish fiscal contagion extended to an Asian high at 1.1231 before reversing. Price is back at the asian low near 1.1213, under the 1.1220 london high and EMA20, with RSI(14) at 46 and roughly 6-pip bars.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 asian low exposes the 1.1200 pivot and the 1.1186 ny low
Reclaiming the 1.1220 london high puts the 1.1231 asian high back in play
Factory Orders 06:00 GMT and Eurozone Retail Sales 09:00 GMT could shift the London open read
Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC during NY hours
Higher lows since 1.1161 flush; Asia high rejected.
Higher lows have held since yesterday's 1.1161 flush on fiscal-contagion selling, with London and NY each putting in a higher low. The mid-Asia push above the 1.1224 prior high to the 1.1231 Asian high was a false break that unwound back to the 1.1213 Asian low, where the 23.6% retracement of the rally and the rising trendline converge. RSI(14) has cooled to ~45 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1204, 1.1197
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 Asian low and rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.1204
Loss of the 1.1197 swing low puts price back under the 1.1200 pivot
Reclaim of the 1.1224 prior high reopens the 1.1231 Asian high
EZ Factory Orders 06:00 GMT and Retail Sales 09:00 GMT could materially shift this read during London
Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC in the NY session, plus French/Spanish spread headlines
Higher lows have built since Monday's 1.1161 flush on French/Spanish fiscal contagion. Late Asia pushed through the 1.1224 prior high to a 1.1231 session high but failed back to 1.1219, the 61.8% of the Asian leg and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.12308
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the 1.1200 pivot exposes the 1.1186 ny low
Close back above the 1.1231 session high puts the prior high break back in play
Factory Orders 06:00 GMT and Eurozone Retail Sales 09:00 GMT could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Uptrend, early Asia stall · RSI 56 · price 1.12241
Higher lows from the 1.1161 flush; new session high rejected.
Higher-low chain intact since the 1.1161 flush. Asia pushed through the 1.1220 prior high to a 1.1231 session high, then rejected straight back to that prior high. ATR near 4 pips reflects quiet Asia conditions while the EUR rebound stays exposed to French and Spanish fiscal headlines.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.1213 asia low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.1231 session high reopens the 1.1250 psych level
Failure at 1.1200 round number puts the fiscal-stress downside back in focus
EZ Factory Orders 06:00 GMT and Retail Sales 09:00 GMT could reset the London session range
Asia broke above Monday's NY high; higher-low chain off 1.1161 flush.
Asia session cleared Monday's NY high at 1.1224 and printed a 1.1230 session high, extending the rising trendline of higher lows off the 1.1161 flush as crowded EUR shorts trim. RSI(14) near 65 is firm but not stretched. The 1.1232 prior high, where Monday's selloff began, sits just overhead.
Support: 1.12244, 1.1213, 1.11972
Resistance: 1.12296, 1.12324
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1224 ny high turns the Asia breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1213 asian low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence; 1.1197 swing low next
Acceptance above the 1.1232 prior high clears the window's top
EZ Factory Orders 06:00 GMT and Retail Sales 09:00 GMT could reset the Asian range into London open
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since the 1.1161 flush · RSI 61 · price 1.12255
Asia pushing through Monday's 1.1220 cap; higher-low chain intact.
Early Asia has cleared Monday's 1.1220 prior cap, which capped price three times through London and NY, and printed a 1.1229 session high after the 1.1213 Asian low held. The recovery from the 1.1161 flush keeps building higher lows along the rising trendline. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is about 3.6 pips, so the tape is quiet ahead of Eurozone data.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1213, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.12285, 1.1237
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1220 prior cap would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1213 Asian low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, with the 1.1186 NY low next
Prior high at 1.1237 is the next area to watch for rejection or break above the 1.1229 session high
Eurozone Factory Orders 06:00 GMT and Retail Sales 09:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the NY low; Asian range top breaking.
Early Asia session is pushing through the 1.1224 prior high and the top of the 1.1213–1.1224 Asian range to 1.1228. That extends the recovery from Monday's barrier-driven 1.1161 low on Spanish election news, with rising support from the 1.1186 NY low intact. RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched, and the 1.1237 pre-drop high is the next cap.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1224 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1213 session low breaks rising support and exposes 1.1200 psych
Acceptance above the 1.1237 pre-drop high opens the 1.1250 round number
EZ Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC and French/Spanish spread moves could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Uptrend off the 1.1161 low, momentum flattening · RSI 46 · price 1.12169
Higher lows 1.1161 / 1.1186 / 1.1197; tight 1.1213–1.1224 box at early Asia.
Yesterday's Asia slide to 1.1161 on Spanish snap-election headlines and option barriers was fully reversed, with higher lows during London and NY. Price is now compressed under the 1.1224 day high and holding the 1.1213 asia low, just above the rising trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and ATR(14) is only about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1197, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1243
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 asia low and the rising trendline opens the 1.1197 swing low
Loss of the 1.1186 ny low breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.1224 day high exposes the 1.1243 pre-drop level
EZ Retail Sales 09:00 UTC (Factory Orders 06:00 UTC) could break the compression
Renewed French/Spanish spread widening could shift this read
00:31 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, stalling · RSI 39 · price 1.12142
Tight post-NY range under 1.1224 day high, early Asia slipping.
Monday's barrier-driven Asia drop to 1.1161 on the Spanish snap-election news was mostly retraced by late NY, which topped at the 1.1224 day high. Early Tuesday Asia is drifting in a ~10-pip band and has printed a 1.1213 session low, with RSI(14) near 39, price under EMA20 and holding just above EMA50; the 1.1200 round number (38.2% fib) and the 1.1186 NY low sit below.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 day high opens the 1.1245 monday open
Loss of the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1186 ny low, aligned with the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold the 1.1213 session low extends the Asia drift lower
EUR Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC and any renewed French/Spanish spread widening could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling into Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.12165
Higher lows from 1.1161; tight range below late-NY high.
Monday's Asia barrier flush on the Spanish snap-election news printed a double bottom at 1.1161. Higher lows followed at 1.1169, the 1.1186 ny low and the 1.1197 swing low, lifting price through the 1.1220 london high to a 1.1224 session high late in NY. Early Tuesday Asia is compressed in a 1.1216–1.1224 band, with price slipping under EMA20 at the range low and ATR down to ~3 pips.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1197, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1224, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 range low exposes the higher-lows trendline near 1.1208 and the 1.1197 swing low
Failure to hold the 1.1186 ny low breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes 1.1161
Close above the 1.1224 session high opens the 1.1250 asia high
EZ Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC; ECB Cipollone/Elderson and Fed's Williams from 13:00 UTC
Renewed widening in French/Spanish spreads could override the recovery read