EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 7 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Intraday recovery off day low, stalling at 1.1203 · RSI 65 · price 1.12028
Higher lows from 1.1165 under a flat 1.1203 cap.
London open broke the 1.1222 asian low as French OAT stress returned, and price bottomed at the 1.1165 day low. NY then built a higher-low chain at 1.1182 and the 1.1188 rollover low. In thin Asia session trade, price is pressing the 1.1203 session cap for a third time, just under the 61.8 fib of the London drop at 1.1206.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1206, 1.1222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1206 61.8 fib clears the session cap and opens the 1.1222 asian low
Break below the 1.1188 rollover low breaks the higher-low trendline, exposing the 1.1182 higher low and then the 1.1165 day low
Eurogroup 08:00 UTC and Waller 08:30 UTC around London open could reset the range; ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC follow
23:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, recovering off the day low · RSI 63 · price 1.12012
Higher lows pressing a 1.1203 range top.
After the London leg down from 1.1231 to the 1.1165 day low, driven by record US 10y yields and renewed French OAT stress, NY built a chain of higher lows. The 1.1203 range top has capped four times, most recently in early Asia after a push off the rollover low. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% of the London leg fib, and RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched.
Support: 1.1188, 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12315
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top opens the 61.8% near 1.1206 and the 1.1231 swing high
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 1.1188 rollover low puts the 1.1182 swing low and 1.1165 day low back in play
Eurogroup 08:00 UTC, Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and ECB Lane 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read during London
23:17 UTC
Intraday recovery off day low, stalling at cap · RSI 64 · price 1.12015
Higher lows from 1.1165, capped at 1.1203 in early Asia.
London open broke the prior Asian low at 1.1221. The slide reached a 1.1165 day low by midday as French bond stress and the US yield surge weighed. Since then a higher-low trendline has held through NY and the rollover, and early Asia is pressing the 1.1203 range cap (fourth test), between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the 1.1232 swing high to 1.1165 drop.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1182, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221, 1.12315
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range cap clears the 61.8% fib near 1.1206 and opens the 1.1221 asian low, with the 1.1232 swing high above
Break below the 1.1188 rollover low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.1182 pullback low, then the 1.1165 day low
Eurogroup 08:00 UTC, Waller 08:30 UTC and ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC on Thursday could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Post-selloff base, recovering into range top · RSI 63 · price 1.12013
Range 1.1188–1.1203 after London/NY leg down to 1.1165.
London open broke the 1.1223 breakdown area and NY extended to a 1.1165 session low as US 10y yields hit 5.35% around the auction. Since then price has held a 1.1188 range low to 1.1203 range top band. Early Asia is pressing the range top near the 61.8% fib of the London selloff, with RSI(14) at 63.
Support: 1.1188, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1223
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top opens the path to the 1.1223 breakdown area
Failure back below the 1.1188 range low reopens the 1.1165 session low
Thin Asia ATR near 3 pips; Eurogroup 08:00 UTC and Waller 08:30 UTC could shift the read into London
22:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend paused, recovering off day low · RSI 58 · price 1.12013
Higher lows pressing a flat 1.1203 cap.
London broke the prior Asian low at 1.1222 and the slide ran to a 1.1165 day low into the London-NY transition, with the French bond sell-off and the 5.35% UST 10y lifting the dollar. Since then, higher lows at 1.1182 and 1.1191 have pressed into a flat 1.1203 cap, the session high rejected three times. Price is back at that cap in thin early-Asia trade, RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.1191, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 session high breaks the cap and opens the path to the 1.1222 asian low
Loss of the 1.1191 higher low, then the 1.1182 swing low, unwinds the recovery toward the 1.1165 day low
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Rebound from day low, capped at 1.1203 · RSI 62 · price 1.12024
Higher lows under a flat 1.1203 intraday cap.
Since the London drop to the 1.1165 day low, price has printed higher lows at 1.1182 and 1.1191 (late NY low), with the 1.1203 intraday cap now tested a fourth time early in the Asia session, between the 50% and fib 61.8 retracement of the drop. The bounce runs against a heavy EUR backdrop of French bond stress and US 10y yields at 5.35%, with RSI(14) near 62 and not stretched.
Support: 1.1191, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1206, 1.1232
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 intraday cap and 1.1206 fib 61.8 opens the path to the 1.1232 swing high
Break of the 1.1191 late NY low and the rising line exposes the 1.1182 higher low, then the 1.1165 day low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, recovering off day low · RSI 57 · price 1.12001
Higher lows since 1.1165 pressing a flat 1.1203 range top.
London open broke below the Asian low at 1.1221 and extended to a 1.1165 day low in early NY, as the renewed French bond sell-off and firmer US yields weighed on EUR. Since then, higher lows at the 1.1182 NY low and the 1.1188 higher low have lifted price back into the 1.1203 range top, which capped price three times today, with the pair sitting near the 50% retrace of the London-NY drop in thin early Asia trade.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top breaks the triple cap and opens the 1.1221 Asian low
Failure at the 1.1188 higher low and the 1.1182 NY low breaks the higher-lows line, with the 1.1165 day low back in view
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC), ECB Accounts (11:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read
Post-selloff range 1.1188–1.1203 beneath triple cap at 1.1203.
London open broke the prior asia low at 1.1221. The slide reached a 1.1165 day low in early NY as the French bond sell-off resumed and US yields held firm. The recovery has stalled under the 1.1203 range top, rejected three times, and price is compressing between 1.1188 and 1.1200 in a thin early Asia session.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1182, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top opens the path back to the 1.1221 asia low
Loss of the 1.1188 rollover low and the 1.1182 higher low re-exposes the 1.1165 day low
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC), ECB Accounts (11:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
London broke the asian low, flushed to 1.1165, rebound capped at 1.1203; tight 1.1188–1.1200 range into the Asia handover.
London open broke the asian low at 1.1227 and the sell-off ran to a 1.1165 day low by the NY open, as French bond stress and higher US yields lifted the dollar. The rebound was rejected three times at a triple cap near 1.1203, roughly the 50% retracement of the London drop and including the FOMC Minutes bar. Late NY has compressed between the 1.1188 late low and the 1.1200 round number, with ATR down to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1203, 1.1227
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 triple cap breaks the range read and brings the 1.1227 asian low into view
Failure to hold the 1.1188 late low and the 1.1182 higher low exposes the 1.1165 day low
Thin Asia session liquidity: the 1.1188 wick printed on low participation
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Lane 10:00 and ECB Accounts 11:30, then US claims 12:30 could materially shift this read
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1222 and pushed to a 1.1165 session low as the French bond sell-off and firmer US yields weighed on EUR. The NY rebound was rejected twice at 1.1203, the 38.2% cap of the 1.1263–1.1165 leg, either side of the FOMC Minutes. Price now drifts at 1.1192, above the 1.1182 swing low, in thin post-NY trade with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 38.2% cap opens a retest of the 1.1222 asian low
Loss of the 1.1182 swing low re-exposes the 1.1165 session low
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and the ECB Accounts (11:30 UTC) could break the band during London hours
21:17 UTC
Down on the day, flat after rebound from 1.1165 · RSI 51 · price 1.11942
London slide to 1.1165, rebound capped at 1.1203; tight box after NY close.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221, and the slide extended to a 1.1165 day low as firm US yields and Brent above $100 pushed EUR to 17-month lows. The rebound stalled three times at the 1.1203 range top, just shy of the 61.8% fib of the London slide. After a muted FOMC Minutes reaction, price is compressed in a 1.1193–1.1200 box with RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top reopens the 1.1221 asian low
Loss of the 1.1188 range low exposes the 1.1182 swing low, then the 1.1165 day low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and ECB Lane at 10:00 UTC during tomorrow's London session could shift this read; ECB Accounts follow at 11:30 UTC
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the next event risk
21:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, recovery stalling in late NY · RSI 53 · price 1.11954
Higher lows off 1.1165 day low, capped at 1.1203; tight post-Minutes range.
EUR broke below the Asian range at London open as the French bond sell-off and higher US yields weighed, bottoming at the 1.1165 day low in early NY before higher lows lifted price back to 1.1203. That intraday cap sits near the 38.2% fib of the 1.1263–1.1165 drop and rejected three times. Post-Minutes trade has compressed into a 7-pip band just above the 1.1193 late low, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.11933, 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1225
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 intraday cap opens the 1.1225 rebound area
Loss of the 1.1193 late low and the higher lows trendline exposes the 1.1182 higher low, then the 1.1165 day low
Waller (08:30 UTC) and ECB Accounts (11:30 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.1182 under a 1.1203 cap; tight late-NY range.
London open broke well below the Asian range as the French bond sell-off and firmer US yields pressed EUR, extending to a 1.1165 day low at 12:15 UTC. NY printed a higher low at 1.1182 but met rejection twice at the 1.1203 twin highs, near the 38.2% fib of the day's drop, and post-FOMC minutes trade has compressed into a 1.1193–1.1200 late-NY range with ATR down to ~3.6 pips.
Support: 1.11933, 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12214
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1203 twin highs clears the 38.2% fib cap and opens the 1.1222 Asian low
Loss of the 1.1193 late-NY low, then the 1.1182 higher low, re-exposes the 1.1165 day low
Thu: Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows compressing under a flat 1.1203 cap after the London breakdown.
London broke the Asian range low at 1.1221 and ran to a 1.1165 session low as the French bond sell-off and firmer US yields hit EUR. NY retraced to around the 50% of the London drop. Price is now compressing late in the NY session, with higher lows forming under a 1.1203 intraday cap that rejected twice, including the FOMC Minutes spike.
Support: 1.1193, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 intraday cap opens the path back to the 1.1221 Asian range low
Loss of the rising higher-lows line and 1.1193 exposes the 1.1182 swing low, then the 1.1165 session low
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and ECB Lane (10:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound stalling · RSI 53 · price 1.11953
Higher lows off 1.1165 session low, capped at 1.1203; late-NY compression.
Asia bled from 1.1263, and the London open broke the Asian range low at 1.1221. NY printed the session low at 1.1165, then recovered on higher lows as yields reversed after the FOMC Minutes. Late NY is compressing in a 1.1193–1.1201 late range under the 1.1203 triple cap, which sits on the 38.2% retrace of the down-leg.
Support: 1.11933, 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 triple cap (38.2% fib) opens the 1.1221 asia low
Loss of the 1.1193 late range and the rising-lows trendline exposes the 1.1182 swing low
Failure at 1.1182 swing low puts the 1.1165 session low back in play
Thursday's EZ trade data (06:00 UTC), Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and ECB Lane (10:00 UTC) could shift this read
Lower low at 1.1165, rebound capped at 1.1203 range top.
A firm USD on 24-year-high yields drove the London-open break of the 1.1222 Asian low, extending to a 1.1165 session low in early NY. The rebound has been capped three times at the 1.1203 range top, including on the FOMC minutes bar. Late-NY price is compressing just above the 1.1194 intraday low, with a higher low at 1.1182 holding near the 50-61.8% rebound fib.
Support: 1.1194, 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top opens a retest of the 1.1222 Asian low
Loss of the 1.1194 intraday low exposes the 1.1182 higher low and the rebound fib 61.8% near 1.1179
Break of the 1.1165 session low confirms a fresh lower low, with Monday's 1.1160 just beneath
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC), ECB Lane (10:00 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Tight range under the session high after rebound from day low.
The London open sell-off broke the asian low at 1.1222, and NY extended to a 1.1165 day low as rising US yields and Brent above $100 lifted the dollar. Price has since retraced to the 50% fib of the London drop and is compressing in a 1.1182–1.1203 band, with the session high capping twice, including on the FOMC minutes bar.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 session high breaks the range and opens a retest of the 1.1222 asian low (Tuesday's 1.1220-1.1225 rebound area)
Failure at the 1.1182 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1165 day low
Asia session liquidity is thin; Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and ECB Accounts (11:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Higher lows under a flat 1.1203 cap since the 12:15 UTC day low.
The London open sell-off broke the Asian range and ran to a 1.1165 day low on the yields-and-oil USD bid and French bond stress. NY has carved higher lows at 1.1182 but stalled three times at the 1.1203 triple cap, most recently on the 18:00 UTC FOMC minutes bar. Late NY is compressing in a 4-pip late range just under 1.1200, near the 57% level of the london drop fib.
Support: 1.11958, 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 triple cap opens a retest of the 1.1221 breakdown level
Loss of the 1.1196 late range floor puts the 1.1182 higher low back in play
Break of the higher low line and 1.1182 exposes the 1.1165 day low
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC), ECB Accounts (11:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, recovering off day low · RSI 57 · price 1.11961
Higher lows from 1.1165 compressing under flat 1.1203 cap.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and drove to 1.1179. NY extended to a 1.1165 day low as the yields/oil USD bid pushed EUR/USD to 17-month lows, then rebuilt on higher lows. Late NY, after the FOMC minutes, price is compressing under the 1.1203 range top, rejected three times, with the rising trendline from the day low now at ~1.1196.
Support: 1.11936, 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1194 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 1.1182 swing low back in play
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top, just past the 38.2% retrace of the day's drop, opens the 1.1221 asian low
A break of the 1.1165 day low resumes the downtrend toward Monday's 1.1160
Fed Waller (08:30 UTC) and ECB Accounts (11:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
London open broke the asian low at 1.1221. Surging US yields then carried EUR/USD to a 1.1165 session low by 12:15 UTC. NY has built higher lows along rising support since then, but the fib 38.2 at 1.1203 has capped three times, including a brief pop on the FOMC minutes, and late NY is compressing above the 1.1194 minutes low.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1214, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1203 fib 38.2 opens 1.1214 fib 50 and the 1.1221 asian low
Break of rising support and the 1.1194 minutes low puts the 1.1182 swing low in play
Loss of the 1.1182 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1165 session low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC Thu, ahead of London, could shift this read
Higher lows from 1.1165 day low pressing a flat triple cap at 1.1203.
London open extended the Asia-session slide through the 1.1221 asian low to a 1.1165 day low at 12:15 UTC. French OAT stress, Brent above $100 and 5.35% US 10y yields drove the move. Since 15:45 UTC, NY hours have printed higher lows on a rising trendline, 1.1182 swing low then 1.1194 higher low, into a triple cap at 1.1203. That cap sits at the 38.2% selloff fib. The 18:00 UTC FOMC minutes bar probed 1.1203 and was rejected, leaving price at 1.1198 late in NY, sitting on the trendline and EMA50.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 triple cap invalidates the rejection read and opens the 1.1221 asian low
M15 close below the 1.1194 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.1182 swing low
Loss of the 1.1165 day low confirms a lower-low, with Monday's 1.1160 just beneath
Further reaction to the FOMC minutes during the Asia session, and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read
French bond stress and US yields at 5.35% drove a London-open drop from 1.1231 to a 1.1165 session low into the NY open, with the Asian range left well above. NY has since built higher lows at 1.1182 and 1.1194 along rising support, but the 1.1203 triple cap has held three times and sits just above the 50% retracement of the london selloff.
Support: 1.1182, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 triple cap clears the 61.8% of the london selloff and opens the asian low at 1.1221
Break of rising support and the 1.1182 higher low would reopen the 1.1165 session low
Follow-through from the 18:00 UTC FOMC minutes and moves in US yields could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound stalling at resistance · RSI 56 · price 1.11979
Higher lows off 1.1165 day low, capped by 1.1203 triple cap.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 in a 45-pip flush as French fiscal stress and surging US yields hit EUR. The move extended to a 1.1165 day low in the London-NY transition. NY has since built higher lows along trendline support, but 1.1203 has now capped three times; that triple cap sits on the 38.2% fib of the selloff, and the 18:00 UTC FOMC minutes bar spanned only about 6 pips beneath it.
Support: 1.11936, 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 triple cap opens a retest of 1.1222, the Asian low and London breakdown point
Break of the 1.1194 micro low and trendline support exposes the 1.1182 swing low
Loss of the 1.1165 day low resumes the downtrend toward Monday's 1.1160 low
FOMC minutes digestion and US yields in late NY hours could extend the 18:00 bar's narrow range
Higher-low chain off 1.1165 day low, capped by double high at 1.1203.
London open broke below the Asian low at 1.1222 as the yield and oil-driven USD bid extended, printing a 1.1165 day low at 12:15 UTC. Since then the NY session has carved higher lows (swing low 1.1182, higher low 1.1194) along a rising trendline, but the double high at 1.1203 has capped both tests so far.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1222
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes due 18:00 UTC, on the current bar, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1203 double high opens the path toward the 1.1222 Asian low
Loss of the 1.1194 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 1.1182 swing low and the 1.1165 day low back in focus
Higher low at 1.1182 after 1.1165 low, capped below 1.1203.
London opened with a break of the Asian low at 1.1221 as French bond stress and surging US yields weighed. The slide extended to a 1.1165 session low early in NY, then rebounded to the NY high at 1.1203. The pullback held a higher low at 1.1182, roughly 54% of the rebound, and price is now compressing just under 1.1203 with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12214
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (~15 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1203 ny high opens the path to the 1.1221 asian low
Break of the 1.1182 higher low voids the rebound line and exposes the 1.1165 session low
Higher lows since 1.1165 day low, capped at 1.1203.
EUR/USD bled about 100 pips from 1.1265 through Asia and London on French bond stress, $100+ Brent and record US yields, before the 1.1165 day low early in NY. NY hours built higher lows at 1.1182 and 1.1188, but the bounce stalled at the 1.1199 session high and the 1.1203 38.2% fib, which has rejected price twice. Price sits right at EMA50.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1199, 1.1203, 1.1222
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC, ~30 min out, could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.1203 (38.2% fib, equal highs) opens the 1.1222 breakdown level
Loss of the 1.1188 higher low, then the 1.1182 swing low, breaks the rising-lows structure
Break of the 1.1165 day low resumes the downtrend toward Monday's 1.1160
Higher lows off 1.1165 session low, capped below 1.1203 NY high.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1222 and the slide ran to a 1.1165 session low in early NY, with surging US yields and $100+ Brent keeping USD bid. Since then a higher-low chain from 1.1165 through 1.1175 to the 1.1182 swing low has lifted price to the 50% fib near 1.1198. Price sits on the EMA50, with the 1.1203 NY high and 61.8% fib capping after a rejection there at 15:00 UTC.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1175, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 NY high clears the 61.8% fib and puts the 1.1222 Asian low in view
Break below the 1.1182 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.1175 higher low and 1.1165 session low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read; ECB's Vujčić speaks at 17:30 UTC
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 56 · price 1.11914
Higher lows off 1.1165 under a 1.1203 cap.
London broke the Asian range low at 1.1221 on French bond stress and surging US yields, and the drop extended to a 1.1165 session low ahead of the NY open. NY has since printed higher lows along a rising trendline, but a double cap at 1.1203, the London morning high retested at 15:00 UTC, has held. Price is coiling near 1.1190, between the fib 50% of the London drop at 1.1198 and the 1.1182 swing low, with FOMC minutes due shortly.
Support: 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.11977, 1.12033, 1.12214
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 1.1182 swing low exposes the 1.1165 session low
Close above the 1.1203 double cap opens the 1.1221 Asian low area
Repeated rejection at the fib 50% (1.1198) keeps the bounce corrective
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound stalling · RSI 56 · price 1.11891
Higher lows off 1.1165 low, capped below 1.1203.
London broke below the 1.1222 asian low and extended to a 1.1165 session low as yields and oil lifted USD. NY has since built higher lows off that low, but price stalled twice at the 1.1203 double cap, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the selloff, and was rejected again from the 1.1198 ny high. Price is pinned between EMA20 and EMA50 into the FOMC minutes.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1165, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.1203, 1.1222
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1182 higher low breaks the NY trendline and exposes the 1.1165 session low
Failure to hold the 1.1160 monday low confirms a fresh lower low
M15 close above the 1.1198 ny high and the 1.1203 double cap opens the 1.1222 asian low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read; ATR near 9 pips likely to expand
Asian range broken lower at London open; NY building higher lows under a 1.1203 cap.
London open broke the Asian low near 1.1222 and ran to a 1.1165 session low as French bond stress and surging US yields lifted USD. NY has printed higher lows from 1.1165 to 1.1182, but the double cap at 1.1203 held twice. Price is sitting between the 38.2% and 50% fib retrace of the day's drop, just under EMA50.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1222
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A close above the 1.1203 double cap opens the 61.8% fib and the asian low at 1.1222
A break of the 1.1182 higher low ends the NY higher-low sequence
Failure at 1.1165 session low puts Monday's 1.1160 low in play
ECB's Vujčić at 17:30 UTC adds headline risk late in the NY session
Lower day low at 1.1165, NY higher lows capped at 1.1203.
London broke below the 1.1221 Asia low on renewed French bond selling and higher US yields, then extended the slide to a 1.1165 day low by midday. The NY bounce has printed higher lows but was rejected at the 1.1203 session high, a second failure there today. Price is at 1.1193, just below EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1182 higher low breaks the NY higher-lows trendline and reopens the 1.1165 day low
Close above the 1.1203 session high clears the double rejection and exposes the 1.1221 Asia low
Holding above the 50% of the NY bounce near 1.1184 keeps the rebound structure intact
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound stalling · RSI 56 · price 1.11864
Higher lows off session low, capped at twin highs.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and drove EUR/USD to a 1.1165 session low by 12:15 UTC, with surging US yields and Brent above $100 keeping USD bid. NY hours have printed higher lows along rising support, but the 15:00 UTC push stalled at 1.1203, a rejection at the twin highs that also sits near the 61.8% of the London drop.
Support: 1.1182, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1182 swing low breaks rising support from the session low
Failure to hold the 1.1165 session low exposes Monday's 1.1160 low
Acceptance above the 1.1203 twin highs invalidates the rejection read and puts the 1.1221 asian low in view
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 47 · price 1.11856
London break of Asian low to 1.11645, NY higher lows capped at 1.1203.
London open broke the 1.1222 Asian low and the slide reached a 1.11645 session low in early NY as firm UST yields and French bond stress weighed on EUR. The NY rebound met rejection at the 1.1203 London high, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the London drop. Price now sits on the rising line from the session low near 1.1186, with RSI(14) at about 47 and price fractionally below EMA20.
Support: 1.1175, 1.11645, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1222
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising line and the 1.1175 higher low reopens the 1.11645 session low and the 1.1160 monday low
M15 close above the 1.1203 london high negates the rejection and puts the 1.1222 asian low in view
ECB's Vujčić at 17:30 UTC and FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London open broke below the Asian range low near 1.1221 and the drop extended to a 1.1165 session low as USD stayed bid on 5.35% US 10y yields and French bond stress. NY session built a rising trendline of higher lows off that base, and the 1.1203 rejection near the 61.8% fib of the London drop sent price back to 1.1186.
Support: 1.1176, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 rejection clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 1.1221 asian low
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1176 higher low exposes the 1.1165 session low and Monday's 1.1160
ECB Vujčić 17:30 UTC and FOMC minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 59 · price 1.11946
London breakdown to 1.1165, NY higher lows capped at 1.1203.
London open broke the 1.1222 Asian low and the sell-off ran to a 1.1165 session low by 12:15 UTC as USD tracked 24-year-high Treasury yields. NY has printed higher lows along a rising trendline, but the 15:00 UTC bar was rejected at 1.1203, matching the London high and sitting between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the sell-off fib.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1176, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 london high clears the 61.8% sell-off fib and puts the 1.1222 Asian low back in play
Break of the 1.1188 higher low and rising trendline exposes the 1.1176 swing low
Loss of the 1.1165 session low resumes the London downtrend toward Monday's 1.1160
ECB's Vujčić at 17:30 UTC and FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce building higher lows · RSI 61 · price 1.11935
London slide below Asian low; NY higher-low chain off 1.1165 session low.
London open broke the 1.1221 Asian low as USD firmed into the FOMC minutes. NY extended the slide to a 1.1165 session low near Monday's 1.1160 before a higher-low recovery to 1.1194, now between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the slide, with EMA50 and the 1.1203 London high just overhead.
Support: 1.1176, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12032, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 London high opens the path to the 1.1221 Asian low
Break of the 1.1176 higher low and the NY higher-lows line exposes the 1.1165 session low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 48 · price 1.1188
London broke Asian range low; NY building higher lows below the 1.1203 lower high.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1221 on the open as French bond selling and pre-minutes USD demand resumed, with two legs lower to a 1.1165 day low. NY has printed a higher low at 1.1176 and price is now testing the 61.8% fib of the 1.1203–1.1165 leg, just under the 1.1191 ny high.
Support: 1.1176, 1.1165, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1191, 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes in roughly 3h could materially shift this read
Close above the 1.1203 london high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.1221 asian low sits above
Loss of the 1.1176 higher low breaks the ny higher lows chain
Break of the 1.1165 day low exposes the 1.1160 monday low
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 47 · price 1.11842
Lower highs through Asia/London, NY higher lows under 1.1189.
London open broke below the Asian range low near 1.1221, and NY opened by breaking the London range to a 1.1165 day low, just above the 1.1160 Monday low, as USD demand built into the FOMC minutes and French bond selling resumed. The bounce has printed higher lows near 1.1176 and sits at the 50% fib, but the 1.1189 NY high is capping it as a retest of the old London range floor.
Support: 1.1176, 1.11645, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11892, 1.12032
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1189 NY high puts the 1.1203 London high back in play
Loss of the 1.1176 higher lows exposes the day low at 1.1165 and the 1.1160 Monday low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open, NY bounce capped below prior swing high.
London broke the 1.1221 Asian low and sold off to a 1.1165 session low around the NY open, as French bond selling resumed and USD firmed into the FOMC minutes. Lower highs at the 1.1203 rebound high and 1.1189 keep the descending trendline intact. The NY bounce was rejected at the 1.1189 lower high, near the 38.2% retracement of the London sell-off fib, and price is back below EMA20 with RSI(14) at 37.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11892, 1.12032, 1.12214
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1165 session low exposes the 1.1160 monday low
M15 close above the 1.1189 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Close above the 1.1203 rebound high invalidates the lower-high sequence; the 1.1221 asian low sits above
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, early-NY bounce in progress · price 1.11866
Lower highs from 1.1203, session low 1.1165, now retesting the broken 1.1186–1.1197 range from below.
No narrative produced.
Support: 1.1173, 1.1165, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1203, 1.1225
13:47 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce stalling · RSI 39 · price 1.11806
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs intact, higher low at 1.1173 off session low.
The London open broke the Asian range low near 1.1221 and the slide ran to a 1.1165 session low. The move came as OAT selling resumed and USD firmed into the FOMC minutes. Early NY has printed a higher low at 1.1173 but is capped at the 1.1184 ny high, at the 23.6% fib, with price under EMA20 and the lower-high chain intact.
Support: 1.1173, 1.11645, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11836, 1.1190, 1.12032
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1190 (fib 38.2) breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 1.1203 bounce high
Failure to hold the 1.1173 higher low exposes the 1.1165 session low and the 1.1160 monday low
FOMC minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 41 · price 1.11782
Lower highs and lower lows since the London break of the Asian range.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1221 as OAT selling resumed and the USD firmed into the FOMC minutes. The drop ran to 1.1179, the bounce topped at the 1.1203 London high, and the first hour of NY printed a lower session low at 1.1165. The rebound from there has stalled at 1.1184, the 50% fib of that leg, and is holding above the 1.1173 NY pivot.
Support: 1.1173, 1.11645, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1184, 1.12032, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 London high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure at the 1.1184 50% fib keeps the sequence of lower highs intact
Loss of the 1.1165 session low exposes the 1.1160 Monday low
A move back toward the 1.1221 Asian low would mean price has re-entered the broken range
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; price testing the descending lower-high trendline.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and ran to 1.1179. After a lower high at 1.1203, NY hours printed a fresh session low at 1.1165, just above the Monday low, as resumed OAT selling and firmer US yields weighed on EUR. The current bounce is testing the lower-high trendline and the 38.2% fib of the leg near 1.1180, with the broken base at 1.1187 overhead.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11875, 1.12032, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1187 broken base (61.8% fib) undermines the lower-high sequence and puts 1.1203 back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1165 session low exposes the 1.1160 Monday low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, retesting the London low from below.
London open extended the Asian-session drift with a drop from 1.1222. Early in the NY session the 1.1185–1.1197 mid-morning range broke lower to a 1.1165 session low, under the 1.1179 London low, as French OAT selling and Brent above $100 weigh on EUR. Price is bouncing into 1.1179 with RSI(14) near 35, and the 1.1203 swing high and 1.1187 lower high define the descending trendline.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11791, 1.11874, 1.12032
What it said to watch
1.1179 London low: area to watch for rejection or acceptance on this retest
M15 close above the 1.1187 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
38.2% fib of the decline sits near 1.1190; 1.1203 swing high is the last lower high in the sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1165 session low exposes the 1.1160 Monday low, flagged as a trigger for further downside
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, price at session low.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and slid to 1.1179 as renewed French OAT selling hit EUR. The bounce stalled at the 1.1203 London high, and a chain of lower highs pressed price to a fresh session low at 1.1165 into the London-NY transition. RSI(14) is near 33, not yet oversold, with the Monday low at 1.1160 just below.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11874, 1.12032, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1160 monday low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1187 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1203 london high back in play
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain below Asian range; London range broken lower.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.1221 in a 40-pip flush. After a 1.1179–1.1203 consolidation, lower highs pushed price through the London low and the 1.1175 breakdown area to a 1.1165 session low into the NY open, as renewed French bond selling and a firmer USD weigh. RSI(14) is near 29 with price sitting just above Monday's low at 1.1160.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1160, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1175, 1.1179, 1.12032
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1160 Monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1150 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1175 breakdown and 1.1179 London low, plus a break of the lower-highs trendline, would weaken the downtrend read
1.1203 range high aligns with the 38.2% fib of the drop and caps any recovery
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC and today's 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; mid-morning range broken lower.
London open broke the Asian low near 1.1221 and ran to 1.1179. The 1.1186–1.1203 consolidation then gave way into the London-NY transition, with a fresh session low at 1.1173 printed under a line of lower highs as French OAT selling and firmer US yields weigh on EUR. RSI(14) is near 28 and price sits under both EMAs, with the 1.1160 Monday low the next reference below.
Support: 1.11732, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11791, 1.11874, 1.12032
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1173 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1160 Monday low
Reclaim of the 1.1179 broken low and the 1.1187 lower high would break the lower-highs line and neutralise the range break
Close above the 1.1203 bounce high, near the 50% of the London drop, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC and today's 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.1203, fresh session low at 1.1175.
London open broke below the 1.1221 asian low and dropped 40+ pips as French OAT selling resumed and USD firmed into FOMC minutes. After a lower high at 1.1203, a late-London range break printed a new session low at 1.1175. Price is now bouncing into the lower-highs line and the 38.2% retrace near 1.1186 ahead of the NY open, still below ema20, with RSI(14) at 39.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-highs line and ema20 near 1.1192 breaks the London sequence; the 1.1203 lower high sits next
Failure to hold the 1.1175 session low exposes the 1.1160 monday low flagged as the downside trigger
Reclaim of the 1.1221 asian low would negate the London breakdown
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC and today's 10y auction could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range; lower highs into a fresh session low.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 in a 40-pip slide as USD firmed on oil and yields ahead of the FOMC Minutes, ignoring the German IP beat. The post-flush bounce capped at the 1.1203 bounce high. Lower highs then pushed price through the 1.1179 prior low to a fresh session low at 1.1175, with RSI(14) near 27 putting in a higher low than the earlier flush.
Support: 1.11753, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11791, 1.12032, 1.12214
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1175 session low cancels the divergence and exposes the 1.1160 monday low
Reclaim of the 1.1179 prior low plus a break of the lower highs trendline points to a range rebuild toward the 1.1203 bounce high
Only a recovery above the 1.1221 asian low neutralises the London breakdown
NY open and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs pressing into the 1.1179 session low after the London open break.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and drove to a 1.1179 session low as USD firmed and Brent pushed back above $100. The bounce high at 1.1203 stalled just past the 38.2% retrace of the London leg, and lower highs since then have pushed price back toward the session low late in London, with RSI(14) neutral near 44.
Support: 1.11791, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11947, 1.12032, 1.12214
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1179 session low resumes the London leg and puts the 1.1160 17-month low in reach
A close above the lower highs line near 1.1195 and the 1.1203 bounce high breaks the descending sequence, with the 1.1221 Asian low the next reference
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after London selloff · RSI 31 · price 1.11889
Asian range broken lower, lower highs below bounce high.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and ran to a 1.1179 session low as USD firmed on oil and yields; the German IP beat drew no visible bid. Mid-London, price is coiling under the 1.1203 bounce high with lower highs below the 38.2% retrace, RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 bounce high breaks the lower highs sequence
Loss of the 1.1179 session low exposes the 1.1160 17-month low
Reclaim of the 1.1221 asian low would negate the London range break
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after London leg lower · RSI 34 · price 1.11905
Asian range broken lower; tight lower-high base above 1.1186.
London open broke the 1.1221 asian low and extended to a 1.1179 london low as Brent above $100 and a firmer USD weighed on EUR. The rebound stalled at the 1.1203 bounce high near the 50% of the london drop fib, and price is now compressing below EMA20 under a lower-high trendline, holding a 1.1186 range floor. RSI(14) is near 34 and ATR(14) is about 9.6 pips, with NY open roughly an hour out.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1179, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1179 london low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1160 17m low
Close above the 1.1203 bounce high and the lower-high trendline opens a retest of the 1.1221 asian low
Loss of the 1.1186 range floor would end the current consolidation
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after London-open drop · RSI 30 · price 1.1189
Asian range broken lower; lower highs inside 1.1179–1.1203 post-drop range.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and drove about 50 pips to a 1.1179 session low, with Brent above $100 and a firmer USD weighing on EUR. The bounce stalled at the 1.1203 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the London drop fib. Mid-London price is holding 1.1185–1.1200 with lower highs, RSI(14) near 30 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1179 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1160 17m low
Recovery above the 1.1203 bounce high, near the 50% of the London drop fib, breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.1221 asian low is the next resistance
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after London flush · RSI 35 · price 1.11897
Pennant of lower highs and higher lows below the broken Asian low.
The London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and flushed to a session low at 1.1179, with Brent above $100 and USD demand ahead of the FOMC Minutes weighing on EUR. Price has since compressed into a pennant, with lower highs off the 1.1203 bounce high and higher lows above 1.1179. The bounce stalled between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the London drop.
Support: 1.11791, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.12032, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1179 session low resumes the downtrend and brings the 1.1160 17m low (Monday's 17-month low) into view
M15 close above the 1.1203 bounce high breaks the lower highs and opens a retest of the 1.1221 asian low
Break of either pennant side (lower highs / higher lows) into the NY open sets the next leg
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after London breakdown · RSI 34 · price 1.11926
Asian range low broken at London open; tight range above session low with lower highs.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and ran to a 1.1179 session low, with Brent above $100 and USD demand ahead of the FOMC Minutes weighing on EUR. The bounce stalled at a 1.1203 lower high, near 50% of the London leg fib. Price is now ranging between 1.1179 and 1.1203, and the lower highs trendline is still capping it.
Support: 1.11791, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.12032, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline; reclaiming the 1.1221 Asian low would neutralise the London breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.1179 session low exposes Monday's 1.1160 17m low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia, Asian low broken, tight 1.1186–1.1203 range.
Asia ground lower in lower highs from 1.1263. London open broke the asian low at 1.1221 and ran to a session low at 1.1179, with Brent above $100 and USD demand into the Minutes doing the work; the German IP beat was ignored. The bounce stalled at 1.1203, the bounce high near the 50% of the London drop fib, and price is now holding a higher low at 1.1186 mid-London with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.11855, 1.11791, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.12032, 1.12214
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 bounce high and the lower highs line opens a retest of the asian low at 1.1221
Failure to hold the 1.1186 higher low exposes the 1.1179 session low, then the 1.1160 monday low (17-month low)
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after London flush · RSI 26 · price 1.1189
Lower highs since Asia; Asian range broken lower, lower high at 1.1203 after session low.
London open broke the asian low at 1.1221 and extended to a session low of 1.1179, as Brent above $100 and a firm USD weighed. The bounce stalled at a lower high near 1.1203 and price sits under the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1221
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1179 session low exposes the 1.1160 17m low
M15 close back above the 1.1221 asian low negates the range break
Close above the 1.1203 lower high would mark the first higher high since the flush
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, bounce fading · RSI 29 · price 1.1189
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs since the 1.1263 Asia high.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1227 and ran about 45 pips to a 1.1179 session low, with Brent back above $100 and a firm USD ahead of the FOMC Minutes driving the move. The rebound stalled at the 1.1203 bounce high, short of the 38.2% fib of the drop near 1.1211, and price is drifting back toward the session low mid-London.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1227
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1179 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1160 17-month low
M15 close back above the 1.1203 bounce high and the 1.1211 fib level opens a deeper retracement toward the 1.1227 Asian low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows since Asia; London open broke the Asian low and extended.
Asia ground lower from 1.1263, then London open broke the 1.1221 Asian low and ran to a 1.1179 session low as Brent above $100 and a firm USD weighed, with the German IP beat ignored. Price is retracing toward the 1.1200 round number, about 38% of the London drop fib, and RSI(14) has recovered to 33.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1212, 1.1221
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.1200 round number keeps the 1.1179 session low and the 1.1160 17m low in view
A bounce extending through the 61.8% fib at 1.1212 tests the broken 1.1221 Asian low
An M15 close back above the 1.1221 Asian low would neutralise the London breakdown
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT later today could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, London broke the Asian low; pullback capped at 1.1200.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and extended to a 1.1179 session low, with USD firm near DXY 102.00 into the FOMC minutes and oil above $100 outweighing the strong German IP beat. The bounce from the low is stalling at the 1.1200 round number, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the London leg. RSI(14) is near 32 after the drop.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1221 asian low invalidates the London breakdown read
Loss of the 1.1179 session low brings the 1.1160 17m low into play
Repeated rejection at the 1.1200 round number / 38.2% fib keeps the lower-high sequence intact
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off London low · RSI 32 · price 1.11976
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs since 06:30 UTC.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and the pair slid about 45 pips to a 1.1179 London low, with a firm USD and Brent above $100 weighing on EUR despite the German IP beat. Price is now bouncing into the 1.1200 round number, at the 38.2% retracement of the London drop, with RSI(14) recovering from the low 30s.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1221
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.1200 round number keeps the lower-high sequence intact
A close back above the 1.1221 Asian low negates the London breakdown
A break of the 1.1179 London low opens the 1.1160 17m low (Monday's 17-month low)
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY close; Asian low broken, basing above session low.
London open broke the 1.1221 Asian low and extended about 43 pips to a 1.1179 session low as USD firmed back above 102.00 and Brent held over $100. RSI(14) near 22 is oversold. Price is basing under the 1.1197 bounce high, about 20 pips above the 1.1160 17-month low.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1221
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1179 session low exposes the 1.1160 17-month low
An M15 close back above the 1.1221 asian low would undermine the breakdown and put the descending highs line in play
The 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday high to session low drop sits near 1.1216, just under the asian low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into London · RSI 16 · price 1.11835
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; Asian range broken lower at London open.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and the London leg ran about 40 pips to a 1.1182 session low as USD firmed with Brent back above $100. RSI(14) near 16 is deeply oversold, and the 1.1200 round number now sits overhead as the first cap.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1221
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1182 session low exposes the 1.1160 17-month low
M15 close back above the 1.1221 asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Stall below the 1.1200 round number keeps the London leg fib 38.2% (~1.1201) capping any bounce
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating at London open · RSI 21 · price 1.11909
Lower highs through Asia, Asian range low broken in first hour of London.
The first hour of London broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and extended roughly 40 pips to a 1.1182 session low, as USD firmness, Brent above $100 and French fiscal worries weighed. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold, and price is holding just under 1.1200 psych after a series of lower highs through Asia.
Support: 1.11816, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12214, 1.12315
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1182 session low exposes the 17-month low at 1.1160
Failure to reclaim 1.1200 psych keeps the breakdown leg intact
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.1221, near the 50% fib of the Asia-London drop, would neutralise the range break
The lower highs trendline and the 1.1232 swing high cap the structure; a close above them ends the lower-high sequence
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Downtrend, extending into London open · RSI 24 · price 1.1208
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1276 top; Asian range broken to the downside.
The London open broke the Asian range low at 1.1227 and printed a session low at 1.1204, extending the decline from 1.1276 as a firmer USD into the FOMC minutes outweighed the German IP beat. The lower highs trendline from late NY remains intact. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched, and the 1.1200 round number sits just below.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1200, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1232, 1.1254
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 1.1227 asia low back inside the Asian range (1.1227–1.1254 asia high) would mark the break as false
An M15 close above the 1.1232 swing high breaks the lower highs chain
Failure to hold 1.1200 round number exposes the 17m low at 1.1160
Session low at 1.1204 is the first area to watch for rejection or extension
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and today's 10-year auction could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after London open flush · RSI 25 · price 1.12147
Lower highs since 22:00 UTC; Asian range low broken at London open.
Asia-session grind lower extended at London open. Price broke the Asian low at 1.1221 and printed a London low at 1.1211 as a firmer USD and Brent above $100 weighed. The descending trendline of lower highs is intact and RSI(14) is near 25, oversold, with price well below EMA20/50.
Support: 1.12112, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12214, 1.12315, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1221 asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1211 london low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1232 swing high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1250 pivot sits at the 50% fib of the decline
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, extending at London open · RSI 27 · price 1.12188
Lower highs through Asia; Asian range low broken, new window low.
Asia ground lower in a lower-highs sequence and broke the Asian low at 1.1227 in the final hour before London. The bounce to 1.1232 met rejection, and London open is extending to a fresh window low near 1.1219 as a firm USD and $100 Brent weigh. RSI(14) is near 27, short-term stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1232, 1.1254
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.1227 would turn the break into a false break
A close above the 1.1232 rejection high and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read
Acceptance below the 1.1200 round number exposes the 17m low at 1.1160
Close above the 1.1254 asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend
US 10-year auction today and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, small early-London bounce · RSI 33 · price 1.12253
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia open, below a falling trendline.
The Asia session ground lower from 1.1263 to a 1.1221 session low in a clean lower-highs sequence, as DXY reclaimed 102.00 and US yields firmed. The first London bounce saw rejection at the 1.1232 bounce high, below the falling lower-highs trendline. RSI(14) sits near 33, soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1211, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1232, 1.1239, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1221 session low exposes Tuesday's prior low at 1.1211 and the 1.1200 round number
An M15 close above the 1.1232 bounce high and the 1.1239 asia shelf breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 1.1250 round number
ECB's Vujčić at 07:20 UTC could add early-London volatility
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain below a falling trendline, price pinned near the session low.
Asia ground lower from the 1.1254 asian high to a 1.1221 session low as DXY reclaimed 102.00 on firmer yields. The 06:30 UTC spike to 1.1232 met rejection at the falling trendline, and price sits below both EMAs into the London open with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.12214, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12315, 1.1239, 1.12542
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1232 rejection and falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 1.1239 swing high next
Failure to hold the 1.1221 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1203 prior low and 1.1200
Reclaiming the 1.1254 asian high would erase the Asia decline
ECB's Vujčić at 07:20 UTC and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia into London · RSI 29 · price 1.1225
LH/LL chain; Asian range low broken at London open.
A steady Asia-session grind of lower highs below the descending trendline from the 1.1254 Asian high extended at London open, with price breaking the 1.1227 Asian low to a 1.1221 session low as DXY reclaimed 102.00 on firmer yields. RSI(14) near 29 with ATR around 3.5 pips. The 1.1203 prior low from Tuesday's London open sits just above the 1.1200 handle.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1238, 1.1254
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1227 Asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Break of the descending trendline and the 1.1238 swing high would end the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1221 session low exposes the 1.1203 prior low and 1.1200
Vujčić 07:20 UTC and FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; price pinned at the Asian low.
Asia session sold steadily from 1.1263 to the 1.1227 Asian low in a lower-high chain as DXY retook 102.00 on firmer yields, giving back most of yesterday's London rally to 1.1276. Bounces are capped at the 1.1234 swing high below the 1.1239 asia shelf, and price sits at the session low into the London open with RSI(14) at 36 and ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.12271, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12338, 1.1239, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1227 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1203 prior low
Recovery above the 1.1234 swing high and the 1.1239 asia shelf breaks the Asia lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1250 pivot, near the 50% of the Asia leg fib, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Euro-area Industrial Production (06:00 UTC) and the London open could set the session's direction
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read during NY hours
Lower highs and lows from 1.1263 Asian high, pressing session low.
The Asia session has ground lower from the 1.1263 Asian high to a 1.1227 session low. Highs keep stepping down as DXY firms back above 102.00, and the 1.1239 swing high has capped the only bounce. Price sits below both EMAs into the London open, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1263
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1239 swing high breaks the lower-highs chain, with the 1.1250 pivot next
Failure to hold the 1.1227 session low extends the grind toward the 1.1200 round number
EZ Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1263 Asian high.
Asia session has bled steadily from the 1.1263 Asian high to a 1.1228 session low, capped by a lower high at 1.1239 under the Asia trendline, as the dollar firmed back above 102.00 on rising yields. Price sits just above the session low into London open, with Tuesday's London rally largely retraced.
Support: 1.12278, 1.1220, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.12628
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1228 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1220 psych level and Tuesday's 1.1203 prior low
M15 close above the 1.1239 lower high breaks the Asia trendline and exposes the 1.1250 pivot, near the 50% retrace of the Asia decline
Reclaim of the 1.1250 pivot puts the 1.1263 Asian high back in view
EZ Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC and the London open could reset the session range; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC are the larger USD-side risk
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing near Asian low · RSI 35 · price 1.12322
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia under a descending trendline.
The Asia session has unwound about two-thirds of yesterday's London-NY rally from the 1.1203 prior low to the 1.1276 NY high. It has printed lower highs under a descending trendline down to a 1.1228 Asian low as US yields firmed and DXY retook 102.00. Price is now holding just above that low with RSI(14) near 35, and the 1.1239 swing high caps the bounce.
Support: 1.12278, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.12542, 1.12764
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.1239 swing high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1228 Asian low exposes yesterday's 1.1203 prior low
A reclaim of the 1.1254 Asian high puts the 1.1276 NY high back in play
German IP at 06:00 UTC and the London open could expand the Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1263 rollover high, testing 61.8% retrace.
Asia session has ground lower from the 1.1263 rollover high in a lower-high sequence, setting an asia low at 1.1228 as US yields recovered and DXY retook 102.00. Price sits on the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's 1.1203–1.1276 London-NY rally, with RSI(14) near 33 and ranges compressing roughly two hours before London open.
Support: 1.1228, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 minor high breaks the lower-high trendline and the Asia sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1228 asia low exposes the 1.1203 swing low that launched yesterday's rally
Reclaim of the 1.1250 pivot reopens the 1.1276 prior high
ECB's Cipollone 05:00 UTC and Eurozone IP 06:00 UTC could set the London open tone; FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC is the larger risk to this read
Lower highs from 1.1263 overnight; tight 6-pip consolidation above 1.1233 asia low.
Asia session extended the overnight slide from 1.1263 to a 1.1233 asia low as USD firmed back above DXY 102.00, unwinding a chunk of Tuesday's London-NY rally. Price has since compressed into a 1.1233–1.1239 band below ema20 and the 1.1250 psych, stalling under the 23.6% of the asia decline fib with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.1233, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1254
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 range top and 1.1250 psych opens a retest of the 1.1254 ny low, near the 50% of the asia decline fib
Failure to hold the 1.1233 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward Tuesday's 1.1203 london low
Cipollone (05:00 UTC) and Industrial Production (06:00 UTC) land ahead of London open; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1263, basing above 1.1233 asia low.
The Asia session extended the pullback from yesterday's 1.1276 high, printing a 1.1233 asia low as DXY retook 102.00 and French debt fears lingered. Price is now basing just under the fib 50% at 1.1240, RSI(14) near 30, and testing the asia trendline drawn from the 1.1263 asia high, with 1.1250 psych above.
Support: 1.1233, 1.12309, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12396, 1.1250, 1.12628
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asia trendline and the fib 50% at 1.1240 would break the Asian lower-high chain, putting 1.1250 psych back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1233 asia low exposes the fib 61.8% at 1.1231, then the 1.1203 london low
Cipollone at 05:00 UTC and EZ Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC land into London open, a likely range expansion point
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, stalling near lows · RSI 32 · price 1.12378
Asia lower highs/lower lows, broke below Tuesday NY range; tight base at 1.1233-1.1239.
Asia session sold EUR/USD out of Tuesday's NY range, through the 1.1254 range low and the 1.1245 broken low, to a 1.1233 asian low as DXY was bid back above 102.00 on Iran headlines and firmer yields. Late Asia, price is pinned in a 6-pip band under the descending Asia trendline near 1.1240, with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.1233, 1.1226, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1245, 1.1254
What it said to watch
M15 close above the trendline near 1.1240 and the 1.1245 broken low would end the Asia lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1233 asian low exposes the 1.1226 prior base, then the 1.1203 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.1254 range low puts price back inside Tuesday's NY range
Cipollone 05:00 UTC and EZ Industrial Production 06:00 UTC land into London open; FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian lower highs and lower lows, now basing just above the session low.
Asia session has stepped about 30 pips lower from the 1.1263 asian high. The move broke Tuesday's NY range and the 1.1244 pivot low as USD dip-buying returned on Iran headlines and firmer yields. Price is now basing just above the 1.1233 asian low with RSI(14) near 31, under the downtrend line and the 1.1250 psych level.
Support: 1.1233, 1.1220, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1250, 1.1263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1244 pivot low and the downtrend line breaks the Asian lower-high sequence; the 38.2% of the asian drop fib sits at the same level
Acceptance above 1.1250 psych (50% retrace) opens a return to the 1.1263 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1233 asian low confirms a lower-low toward the 1.1220 round number and the 1.1203 london low
Cipollone 05:00 UTC and EZ Industrial Production 06:00 UTC precede London open and could set the session range; FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk
03:01 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, RSI near oversold · RSI 27 · price 1.12354
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1263 Asia high; London breakout gains given back.
Asia session has steadily unwound Tuesday's London-to-NY rally. Price is 30 pips off the 1.1263 Asia high and pinned near the 1.1233 Asia low, with the 1.1244 prior low (14:30 UTC pullback) and the 1.1250 psych level now overhead as French debt fears linger. RSI(14) is near 27 and the 3.5-pip ATR points to compressed ranges ahead of London.
Support: 1.1233, 1.12258, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12444, 1.1250, 1.12628
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1244 prior low and the descending asia trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.1233 asia low exposes the 1.1226 swing low from Tuesday's London open, then the 1.1203 day low
Recovery through 1.1250 psych toward the 1.1263 asia high would negate the Asia sell-off
Cipollone 05:00 UTC and EZ Industrial Production 06:00 UTC around London open; FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC later Wed
Price is near the 61.8% fib retracement of the 1.1203–1.1276 rally
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, broke below the late-NY range.
Asia has ground lower from 1.1254 and broken the 1.1244 ny low, printing a 1.1233 asian low as lingering French debt fears pare Tuesday's rebound to 1.1276. RSI(14) is near 24 and ATR(14) about 3.5 pips. The 38.2% fib of the 1.1276–1.1233 drop sits at 1.1250.
Support: 1.1233, 1.1226, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1250, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Closes back above the 1.1244 ny low and the 1.1250 38.2% fib would break the Asia lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.1233 asian low exposes the 1.1226 london low swing, then the 1.1203 tuesday low
Recovery above the 1.1269 ny high negates the Asia decline
Cipollone (05:00 UTC) and EZ Industrial Production (06:00 UTC) land into the London open
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC are the larger event risk for this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, oversold · RSI 20 · price 1.12343
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1263 Asia high; NY range broken to the downside.
Late in the Asia session, EURUSD has slid steadily from the 1.1263 asia high. It broke the NY afternoon range and the 1.1244 prior low as French debt worries resurfaced, with each bounce capped along the Asia lower-highs trendline. Price now sits just above the 61.8% fib of Tuesday's 1.1203–1.1276 rally at 1.1231, with RSI(14) near 20.
Support: 1.12309, 1.12258, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12444, 1.12628, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1244 prior low and the Asia lower-highs trendline would neutralise the slide
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.1231 exposes the 1.1226 swing low, then the 1.1203 tuesday low
Resistance stacked at the 1.1263 asia high and 1.1276 tuesday high on any recovery
EZ Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC lands before London open; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia; NY range low and prior low broken.
Asia session slid out of the 1.1254–1.1265 NY range and through the 1.1244 prior low as French debt worries resurfaced, printing lower highs along the Asia trendline. Price has now retraced about half of yesterday's 1.1203–1.1276 rally on the decline fib, with RSI(14) near 22 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1254, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1244 prior low and the Asia trendline weakens the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1226 swing low exposes the 1.1203 london low
Reclaim of the 1.1254 ny range low would put the 61.8% decline fib near 1.1262 and the 1.1276 rally high back in view
EZ Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC and ECB's Cipollone at 05:00 UTC could shift the London open read
Lower highs from 1.1276; Asia selloff broke the prior NY low.
EUR/USD has bled through the Asia session from the 1.1263 asia high as French debt worries resurfaced. It has lost the 1.1250 pivot and slipped below the 1.1244 prior NY low to a 1.1242 session low, extending the lower-highs sequence from yesterday's 1.1276 London-NY high. Price now sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of yesterday's 1.1203–1.1276 rally, with RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 1.12421, 1.12396, 1.12343
Resistance: 1.12444, 1.1250, 1.12628
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1240 50% fib exposes the 1.1234 swing low from yesterday's London session
M15 close back above the 1.1250 pivot and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Prior NY low at 1.1244 is now overhead; a rejection there keeps the session low in play
German Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC around London open; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC are the larger event risk later today
01:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since session high · RSI 26 · price 1.1244
Asia session lower-high/lower-low chain; NY pullback low 1.1244 now being tested.
Asia session has faded steadily from the 1.1263 asian high as French debt worries resurface. Price has lost the 1.1250 psych pivot and is pressing the NY pullback low near 1.1244, sitting just above the 50% fib of yesterday's London rally at 1.1240. Each bounce since the 1.1276 session high has printed a lower high, and RSI(14) near 26 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1234, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1263, 1.1276
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1250 psych pivot breaks the Asia lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 1.1240 exposes the 1.1234 swing low, then the 1.1203 london low
A break of the lower highs trendline through the 1.1263 asian high would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
German Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC, around London open, could shift this read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC are the larger event risk for the NY session
01:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 26 · price 1.12462
Descending lower-high chain off the 1.1263 Asian high, late-NY range broken, testing swing low.
Asia session has ground lower from the 1.1263 asian high in a clean lower-high sequence along a falling trendline. That move broke the late-NY 1.1254–1.1265 range, and price now sits on the 1.1244 swing low from Tuesday's NY pullback, below the 38.2% retracement of the day rally, with RSI(14) near 26. The digest ties the slip back under the 1.1250 round number to resurfacing French debt worries.
Support: 1.12444, 1.1241, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.12628, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1244 swing low exposes the 1.1241 shelf and the 50% fib of the day rally near 1.1240; the 1.1203 day low is further out
Reclaim of the 1.1250 round number and a close above the Asia trendline would break the lower-high chain
Asian high at 1.1263 and day high at 1.1276 mark the upper bounds of the session structure
German Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC and FOMC Minutes later Wednesday could materially shift this read
The Asia session has slipped from the 1.1263 asia high in a chain of lower highs. That drift is unwinding part of Tuesday's London rally from 1.1203 to the 1.1276 day high, a move built on France's budget filing and a softer USD. Price now sits on the 38.2% retracement and the 1.1244 ny low, with RSI(14) near 28 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12444, 1.12396, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.12542, 1.12628, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1244 ny low exposes the fib 50% at 1.1240, then the fib 61.8 near 1.1231
Close above the asia lower highs trendline and the 1.1254 minor high neutralises the Asian drift, with the asia high at 1.1263 next
Day high at 1.1276 marks the top of the London rally; it would need a reclaim for the up-move to extend
EZ Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Pulling back from day high, lower highs · RSI 37 · price 1.12502
Lower highs since 1.1276 day high; 1.1254 shelf lost in early Asia.
London's rally from the 1.1203 Asian low, on the France budget filing and a softer USD, topped at the 1.1276 day high. NY and late hours printed a lower-highs sequence at 1.1269, 1.1265 and 1.1263. Early Asia has slipped below the 1.1254 broken shelf and sits on the 38.2% fib of the London leg near 1.1248, with RSI(14) at 37 and ATR at 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.12482, 1.12444, 1.12396
Resistance: 1.1254, 1.12628, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1254 broken shelf neutralises the Asia slip
Failure to hold the 1.1244 swing low exposes the 50% fib at 1.1240
Break of the lower highs trendline above the 1.1263 lower high resets the pullback read
Industrial Production 06:00 UTC and FOMC Minutes 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1276 day high, slipped below late-NY range floor.
EUR/USD rallied from the 1.1203 swing low after London open to a 1.1276 day high as the dollar eased and French budget risk faded. Since then NY and early Asia have printed lower highs, and price has slipped below the 1.1254 range floor into the 38.2% zone of the london rally fib (~1.1248). RSI(14) near 33, ATR(14) ~3.6 pips, a quiet Asia-session drift toward the 1.1244 NY low.
Support: 1.12444, 1.1240, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.1254, 1.12628, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1254 range floor neutralises the slip; a break of the 1.1263 asian high also clears the lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1244 NY low exposes the 1.1240 london base, which coincides with the 50% retrace of the london rally fib
Rejection below the 1.1276 day high keeps the lower-high sequence intact; the 1.1203 swing low is the base of the day's advance
EUR Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC (London open) could break the Asian range; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC are the larger risk for this read
Lower highs since NY swing high, pressing session low.
London broke above the prior Asian range and ran to the 1.1276 day high on France-budget relief and a softer USD. Since the 1.1269 NY swing high, price has printed a series of lower highs, and early Asia is now probing the 1.1250 session low at the 38.2% retracement of the London leg, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.12496, 1.12444, 1.12396
Resistance: 1.12628, 1.12689, 1.12764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1250 session low exposes the 1.1244 ny low and the fib 50% near 1.1240
Recovery above the 1.1263 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and brings the 1.1269 swing high and 1.1276 day high back into view
Eurozone Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC could shift the read into the London open; FOMC Minutes later Wednesday are the larger risk
Lower highs from 1.1276 day high; early Asia slipping under the late-NY floor.
London lifted EURUSD from the 1.1203 day low to a 1.1276 day high on the softer dollar and French budget relief. Since then the pair has made lower highs at 1.1269 and the 1.1265 range top. Early Asia is now slipping below the 1.1254 late floor and edging toward the 38.2% fib near 1.1248, with the 1.1244 NY low just beneath.
Support: 1.12444, 1.1241, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.1254, 1.1265, 1.12764
What it said to watch
Hold below the 1.1254 late floor turns it into overhead resistance
Break of the 1.1244 NY low exposes the 1.1241 london base and the 50% fib near 1.1240
Recovery back above the 1.1265 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline from the day high
Eurozone Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC could set the London session tone
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC are the main risk to this read later in the day