EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 8 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Neutral, compressing after NY reversal · RSI 46 · price 1.12111
Lower highs vs higher lows above 1.1200 pivot, early Asia.
London pushed through the Asian range low to a 1.1172 london low on French OAT stress. NY then reversed it to a 1.1226 session high as US yields eased and the USD faded. Since then, lower highs at 1.1219 and 1.1217 against a higher low at 1.1184 and a 1.1201 swing low have squeezed price into a tight pennant above 1.1200. Early Asia is quiet, with ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1184, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1201 swing low breaks the pennant and reopens the 1.1184 higher low
Close above the 1.1217 lower high clears the lower-highs trendline and exposes the 1.1226 session high
Loss of 1.1184 puts the london low at 1.1172 back in play and negates the London-NY swing reversal
EcoFin (08:00 UTC) and French OAT/spread headlines into London could break the compression
23:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, flattening in early Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.12114
Tight Asia consolidation above reclaimed 1.12 pivot.
NY rebounded from the 1.1184 ny swing low and reclaimed the 1.12 pivot as USD faded on Trump's Iran comments. The 1.1226 day high spike was rejected earlier. Early Asia is compressing between the 1.1210 ny close low and the 1.1217 late-ny high, just under the 23.6% fib of the London low–day high leg. Price is pinned to EMA20, RSI is near 49 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12096, 1.12008, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12169, 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
Break above the 1.1217 late-ny high and 1.1219 swing high exposes the 1.1226 day high
Loss of the 1.1210 ny close low puts the 1.12 pivot at 1.1201 back in play; failure there reopens the 1.1184 ny swing low
French OAT headlines, EcoFin (08:00 UTC) and ECB Cipollone (10:15 UTC) could materially shift this read in London
Tight 1.1204–1.1217 band above 1.1200 after NY reversal.
London broke the Asian range low and slid to the 1.1172 day low on French OAT stress. NY reversed back through 1.1200 as USD faded on Trump's Iran comments and softer oil, spiking to the 1.1226 day high. Early Asia is holding a tight band between the 1.1201 swing low and the 1.1217 swing high, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR under 5 pips.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1184, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1217 swing high reopens the 1.1226 day high
Loss of the 1.1201 swing low (50% of the NY swing fib) puts the 1.1184 NY low back in play, then the 1.1172 day low
EcoFin (08:00 UTC) and ECB Cipollone (10:15 UTC) land in London hours; fresh French OAT headlines could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range and made a 1.1172 day low on French OAT stress. NY reversed it as the USD faded on lower oil, and that NY rally reached a 1.12264 session high. Since then price has compressed between a lower high at 1.12194 and the 1.12008 swing low, with higher lows holding at the 1.12044 rollover low into early Asia; RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 1.12044, 1.12008
Resistance: 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12194 lower high breaks the compression and reopens the 1.12264 session high
Loss of the 1.12008 swing low and the 1.1200 figure turns the higher lows sequence into a range break lower
Fresh French fiscal/OAT headlines could reverse the NY rally
Friday ECB Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US U-Mich sentiment (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Recovery off London low, now compressing · RSI 59 · price 1.12143
Lower highs and higher lows since 1.1226 day high; coil near pennant apex.
NY reversed the London slide to 1.1172 as US yields and oil eased, running to a 1.1226 day high before coiling into a pennant of lower highs and higher lows. Early Asia is pressing descending resistance around 1.1214, just under the late NY high, with RSI(14) near 59 and the rollover low at 1.1204 holding.
Support: 1.12044, 1.1200, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12169, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the late NY high at 1.1217 breaks the pennant top and puts the 1.1226 day high back in view
Failure to hold the rollover low 1.1204 and the 1.1200 round number breaks rising support, exposing the 1.1184 swing low
French OAT/fiscal headlines or Friday's EcoFin (08:00 UTC) and Schnabel (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
London pushed EURUSD to a 1.1172 low on French OAT stress before NY reversed it to a 1.1226 ny high as USD faded on Trump's Iran comments. Since then, higher lows at 1.1184, 1.1201 and the 1.1204 rollover low have met lower highs at 1.1219 and 1.1217, tightening a consolidation above the 1.12 pivot. Price at 1.1212 in thin early-Asia trade is pressing the lower highs line, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.12044, 1.1200, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12169, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1217 lower high and the lower highs line opens the 1.1226 ny high
Break of the 1.1204 rollover low puts the 1.12 pivot back in play; a loss of 1.1200 exposes the 1.1184 ny low near the 76.4% of the 1.1172-1.1226 fib
Asia session is likely thin; EcoFin (08:00 UTC) and ECB Cipollone (10:15 UTC) on Friday could shift the read once London opens
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1190 and set a 1.1172 day low on French OAT stress. A USD fade on Trump's Iran comments then lifted NY to a 1.1226 day high, turning the break into a false break. Since then, a lower high at 1.1217 sits over a rising swing low at 1.1184 and a pullback low at 1.1201, with price compressing above 1.12 into the Asia session on thin post-rollover ranges.
Support: 1.12008, 1.11844, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.12169, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1217 lower high and the descending trendline opens a retest of the 1.1226 day high
Failure to hold the 1.1201 pullback low and the rising trendline puts the 1.1184 swing low back in play, then the 1.1172 day low
Fresh French OAT/budget headlines during Asia or London could break the compression either way
Fri EcoFin and ECB Cipollone in the London morning, then ECB Schnabel and US UoM sentiment (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Compression: lower highs from 1.1226 vs higher lows from 1.1184.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.1172 day low on French OAT stress, but NY reversed it as US yields eased and the USD faded, spiking to a 1.1226 day high that was rejected. Since then, lower highs at the 1.1219 swing high and the 1.1217 late NY high are meeting higher lows off the 1.1184 swing low, compressing price above the 1.12 pivot, which is also the 50% retracement of the day low-high move, into the Asia session handover. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and ATR(14) is about 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.12008, 1.11844, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.12169, 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12 pivot exposes the 1.1184 swing low, then the 1.1172 day low
Close above the 1.1219 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1226 day high back in play
Thin Asia session liquidity may keep price inside the 1.1200–1.1217 compression
Fresh French OAT or fiscal headlines, or EcoFin and ECB Cipollone early Friday, could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Sideways after NY rebound, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.12044
Contracting range: lower highs from 1.1226 against rising lows from 1.1172.
London sold to a 1.1172 day low on French OAT stress, then NY rebounded to a 1.1226 day high as the USD faded with oil, where it met rejection. Since then lower highs at 1.1219 and 1.1217 against rising lows at 1.1184 and 1.1201 have compressed price into a band under the 1.1212 asian high, and the fade into rollover sits just above the 1.1200 psych near the 38.2% of the rally fib with RSI(14) at 48.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1217, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 psych and the rising lows line exposes the 1.1184 swing low
Close above the 1.1212 asian high and the lower highs line puts the 1.1217 lower high and 1.1226 day high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1184 swing low reopens the 1.1172 day low
Post-rollover Asia liquidity is thin; Friday's ECB Schnabel and US U-Mich could break the compression
Lower highs vs higher lows, coiling just above 1.1200 after NY close.
London broke below the Asian range (1.1188–1.1212) to a 1.1172 day low on French OAT stress. NY then rallied to a 1.1226 session high as the USD eased, and a late rally off the 1.1184 NY low retested the 1.1201 swing low. Since then lower highs at 1.1219 and 1.1217 against higher lows have price coiling just above 1.1200 after the NY close, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 1.12008, 1.11844, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.12169, 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1201 swing low and 1.1200 pivot reopens the 1.1184 NY low
Close above the 1.1217 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 1.1226 session high next
Loss of the 1.1172 day low breaks the higher-lows trendline and confirms a lower low
Thin Asia session into Fri EcoFin (08:00 UTC); fresh French OAT/fiscal headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs vs higher lows since NY rejection at the day high.
London broke below the Asian range on French OAT stress, printing the london low at 1.1172. NY reversed it as the USD faded on Trump/oil headlines, spiking to the 1.1226 day high before a rejection back to the 1.1184 swing low. Since then a lower high at 1.1219 and a higher low at 1.1201 have compressed price back to the 1.1212 asian high late in the NY session.
Support: 1.12008, 1.11844, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1219 lower high breaks the compression and puts the 1.1226 day high back in play
Loss of the 1.1201 higher low and the 1.1200 pivot reopens the 1.1184 swing low, then the 1.1172 london low
Price stalling at the 1.1212 asian high in thin post-NY trade keeps the range read intact
Fri EcoFin (08:00 UTC) and fresh French OAT headlines during London could break the lower highs / higher lows squeeze
20:31 UTC
Choppy intraday range, higher lows since NY low · RSI 56 · price 1.12105
Post-NY compression 1.1200–1.1219 below the NY high.
London broke the Asian range lower to a day low at 1.1172 on French OAT stress. NY then swept the Asian high to a 1.1226 NY high and was rejected, put in a NY low at 1.1184 and a higher low at the 1.12 pivot as USD faded on lower oil. After NY close, price is compressing between the 1.12 pivot and a lower high at 1.1219, with the late high at 1.1217 capping for now.
Support: 1.12008, 1.11844, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.12169, 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1219 lower high reopens the 1.1226 NY high
Failure to hold the 1.12 pivot breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.1184 NY low
A move back under the NY low puts the 1.1172 day low and the fib's lower half back in play
Fresh French OAT/fiscal headlines in thin Asia trade could shift this read
Higher lows from 1.1172 against lower highs below 1.1226; compression late NY.
London broke below the Asian range to 1.1172 on French OAT stress. NY reversed it as US yields eased and USD faded on Trump's Iran comments, but the spike to the 1.1226 day high was rejected. Since then higher lows at the 1.1184 ny low and the 1.1201 swing low have held, and price is back above the 1.1212 asian high, pressing the 1.1219 swing high late in NY with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 1.12124, 1.12008, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1219 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 1.1226 day high
Failure to hold the 1.1201 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and reopens the 1.1184 ny low
Slipping back under the 1.1212 asian high returns price to the prior range
Thin Asia session ahead; fresh French fiscal/OAT headlines could shift this read before Friday's Schnabel and UMich
20:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since NY low · RSI 64 · price 1.12137
Higher lows above 1.1200 pivot, lower high at 1.1219 caps.
London broke below the Asian range on French OAT stress, but the 1.1172 low proved a false break once US yields eased and the USD faded. The NY session spiked to a session high at 1.1226, then whipsawed to a 1.1184 ny low. Since then price has built higher lows and is grinding back above the asian high, with the higher lows trendline intact. A lower high at 1.1219 is still in place, and the 1.1200 pivot has held on two retests after the NY close.
Support: 1.12124, 1.12008, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1219 lower high and then 1.1226 session high extends the higher lows sequence
Loss of the asian high at 1.1212 and then the 1.1200 pivot breaks the higher lows trendline and reopens the 1.1184 ny low
Fresh French OAT / budget headlines during Asia could reverse the recovery
Fri UMich sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and ECB Schnabel (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, compressing late NY · RSI 60 · price 1.12091
Lower highs from NY high over higher lows, back above 1.1200.
London ground down to a London low at 1.1172 on French OAT stress. The NY rally then reversed the move as US yields and the dollar faded, but the 1.1226 NY high was rejected. Late in the NY session, price is compressing between the lower highs line and the higher lows line, with the 1.1201 higher low just above the 1.1200 pivot and RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.12008, 1.11844, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.12128, 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1213 recent high and the 1.1219 lower high breaks the compression and puts the 1.1226 NY high back in play
Loss of the 1.1201 higher low back under 1.1200 exposes the 1.1184 swing low, which sits near the 78.6% of the NY rally, then the 1.1172 London low
Fri ECB Schnabel/Cipollone and US UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, compressing below the day high · RSI 61 · price 1.12114
Higher lows from the 1.1172 day low against lower highs at 1.1226 and 1.1219.
London broke below the Asian range and printed a day low at 1.1172 on French OAT stress. NY reversed it as US yields eased and the USD faded on Trump's Iran comments and softer oil, with a spike to the 1.1226 day high. Since then price has compressed between higher lows and a lower high at 1.1219, and the 1.1200 pivot held on the 18:00 UTC retest. Late NY trade is quiet, with RSI(14) near 61 and nothing stretched.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1184, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1219 lower high and the 1.1226 day high breaks the compression to the upside
Loss of the 1.1200 pivot breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 1.1184 swing low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1184 swing low reopens the 1.1172 day low
Fresh French OAT or budget headlines could reverse the NY recovery
Fri: ECB Schnabel 13:30 UTC and US UoM sentiment 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.1172, lower high at 1.1219, compressing above 1.1200.
London pressed EUR/USD to a 1.1172 london low on French OAT stress. A USD fade on Trump's Iran comments and softer oil then lifted it to a 1.1226 session high in NY, a false break of the Asian range top that was rejected back to the 1.1184 ny low, holding the higher lows trendline. Late NY, a lower high at 1.1219 and a pullback low at 1.1201 have price compressing just above the 1.1200 pivot, with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1184, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1201 pullback low and 1.1200 pivot puts the 1.1184 ny low and the 78.6% fib back in play
Break of the higher lows trendline toward the 1.1172 london low would confirm a lower-low
Close above the 1.1219 lower high reopens the 1.1226 session high
Fresh French OAT/issuance headlines in Asia, and EcoFin/ECB speakers on Friday morning, could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Two-way chop after NY reversal, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 1.12022
Lower high at 1.1219 under 1.1226 session high, rising lows from 1.1172; contracting inside the Asian range.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.1172 london low on French spread stress. NY reversed it to a 1.1226 session high as Treasury yields pulled back, but two pushes above the 1.1212 asian high were rejected, leaving a lower high at 1.1219 and a 1.1184 pullback low on the rising lows. Late NY is sitting on the 1.12 pivot near the 50% fib of the London low-NY high move, with RSI(14) neutral at 49 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11844, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1184 pullback low breaks the rising lows and reopens the 1.1172 london low
Close back above the 1.1212 asian high and the 1.1219 lower high puts the 1.1226 session high back in play
Repeated M15 closes under the 1.12 pivot shift the read toward the 61.8% fib near 1.1193
Fri EcoFin, ECB Cipollone, and US Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) are the next event risk; French OAT headlines remain the dominant EUR driver
18:16 UTC
Two-way recovery off day low, swings widening · RSI 50 · price 1.12061
NY range 1.1184–1.1226, lower high at 1.1219, higher lows.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.1190 and pressed to a 1.1172 day low on French spread stress and firm US yields. NY then spiked to the 1.1226 NY high as Treasury yields eased, met rejection back to the 1.1184 NY low, and has since built a 1.1219 lower high and a 1.1201 swing low at the 50% fib of that rebound. Price is holding just above the swing low into the late NY session, with rising lows from the day low still intact.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1184, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1201 swing low and 1.1200 reopens the 1.1184 NY low
Close above the 1.1219 lower high puts the 1.1226 NY high back in play
Break of the rising lows trendline toward the 1.1172 day low would mark a lower-low
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Two-way intraday, recovering off day low · RSI 56 · price 1.12114
Higher low under a lower high, contracting NY swings.
London broke below the Asian range on French spread stress and printed a 1.1172 day low. NY reversed it as Treasury yields pulled back, tagging a 1.1226 session high. Price is now back above the 1.1200 round number after London close, with a 1.1184 swing low under a 1.1219 swing high: swings contracting along a rising trendline.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11844, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1226 session high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1184 swing low and the rising trendline
Break of the 1.1172 day low reverts the read to the London downside leg
Fri 14:00 UTC Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations, plus ECB Cipollone/Schnabel, could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Recovering from session low, higher low in place · RSI 59 · price 1.1214
Higher low at 1.1184 after NY false break; retesting NY high zone.
London took out the Asian range low on wider French spreads, printing a 1.1172 session low. Early NY spiked through the Asian high to the 1.1226 NY high as Treasury yields eased, then fell back in a false break. Buyers stepped in at a 1.1184 higher low, near the 78.6% fib, and price is back above the Asian high at 1.1212, with the recent high at 1.1219 just overhead and RSI(14) at 59.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1226 NY high clears the false-break high and extends the higher-low sequence
Slip back below the 1.1212 Asian high, then the 1.1200 round number, puts the retest read in doubt
Break of the 1.1184 higher low and rising trendline reopens the 1.1172 session low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC; any October-hike signal could reverse the yield-driven bounce
17:16 UTC
Two-way intraday, recovering off a higher low · RSI 59 · price 1.12075
NY high rejected, higher low at 1.1184, price retesting the Asian high.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.1172 session low on wider French spreads. NY reversed, swept the Asian high and was rejected at the 1.1226 NY high; the pullback then held at 1.1184, a 76.4% retrace and a higher low on the higher-lows line. The latest bar is back above 1.1200 psych as Trump's Iran de-escalation headline eased USD demand, with RSI(14) near 59, mid-range.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11844, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.12264
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1212 Asian high reopens the 1.1226 NY high
A move back below 1.1200 psych and then the 1.1184 NY low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1172 session low
17:01 UTC
Intraday range after failed NY spike · RSI 51 · price 1.11959
False break above Asian high, back mid-range near 1.1196.
London ground down to a 1.1172 session low on wider French spreads. As Treasury yields eased, NY reclaimed the 1.1200 round number and pushed through the 1.1212 Asian high to 1.1226, but that move was rejected and price fell back to a 1.1185 NY low. Price is now hugging EMA20 near 1.1196 with RSI(14) neutral around 51, inside a 1.1185–1.1226 NY range.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1212, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number and 1.1212 Asian high reopens the 1.1226 NY high
Failure at the 1.1185 NY low exposes the 1.1172 session low, a near-full retrace of the London-NY leg
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift this read via October-hike odds
16:46 UTC
Two-way intraday swings, no clean direction · RSI 51 · price 1.11929
NY false break above Asian high fully reversed; price at 61.8% of the rally.
London sold down to a 1.1172 london low on wider French spreads and a firm USD. NY then rallied through the 1.1212 asian high to a 1.1226 ny high before a full rejection back below the 1.1200 round number. Price is now sitting on the 61.8% retracement of that rally, with buyers holding the 1.1185 ny low twice in the last hour and price pinned just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1185, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1185 ny low exposes the 1.1172 london low
Reclaiming the 1.1200 round number and the asian high at 1.1212 would revive the NY rally read
A retest of the 1.1226 ny high would test whether the false break holds
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via October-hike pricing
False break above Asian high, price back mid-range below 1.1200.
London pressed EUR to a 1.1172 london low on wider French spreads. In NY, a spike as yields eased cleared the 1.1212 asian high and tagged a 1.1226 spike high, then failed. That move has unwound back below the 1.1200 round number and beyond the 61.8% fib. Late in NY, price sits on the 1.1184 ny low with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11844, 1.11797, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1184 ny low exposes the 1.1180 higher low and then the 1.1172 london low
Reclaiming the 1.1200 round number reopens the 1.1212 asian high, with the 1.1226 spike high capping the session range
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, lower highs since 1.1226 spike.
NY session pushed through the 1.1212 Asian high to a 1.1226 NY high as Treasury yields eased. That push was rejected within the hour and has fully unwound, with price back at 1.1189, below the 1.1200 round number and through the 61.8% of the rally off the 1.1172 London low. The 1.1184 pullback low is the nearest test; RSI(14) is near 45 and ATR about 8 pips.
Support: 1.11844, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1184 pullback low exposes the 1.1172 London low and the session's lower half
Recovery back above the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1212 Asian high would neutralise the false-break read
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via October-hike odds
Fresh French OAT spread headlines remain the main EUR-side swing factor intraday
False break above Asian high, price back below 1.1200 and near-term lower highs.
London broke below the Asian range and set the session low at 1.1172 on French spread stress and a firm USD. A mid-NY spike through the 1.1212 Asian high to 1.1226 was fully rejected, and price is now back below the 1.1200 round number and just under the 61.8% level of the NY rally fib.
Support: 1.1189, 1.1182, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1212, 1.1226
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1189 swing low exposes the 1.1182 prior lows, then the 1.1172 session low.
An M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number reopens the 1.1212 Asian high; the 1.1226 NY high marks the top of the false break.
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read.
NY rallied off the 1.1180 higher low as Treasury yields eased, breaking the Asian range high near 1.1212 before a rejection at the 1.1226 NY high. The move has unwound to the 1.1200 round number and the 50% fib of the 1.1172 day low to NY high leg, with the 1.1195 pullback low and rising support holding so far. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and ATR is about 8 pips heading into the London close.
Support: 1.11953, 1.11797, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12264
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1195 pullback low and rising support exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1192, then the 1.1180 higher low
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1206 38.2% fib reopens the 1.1226 NY high
Loss of the 1.1172 day low marks a lower low and voids the NY recovery structure
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken both ways; NY high rejected, price back at 1.1200.
London broke the asian low and printed a 1.1172 london low on French OAT-driven euro selling. NY then lifted through the asian high to a 1.1226 ny high as US yields eased, but that sweep was rejected. Price is back at the 1.1200 round number, on the 50% fib of the London-low-to-NY-high rally, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 asian low exposes the 1.1172 london low
Reclaim of the 1.1212 asian high reopens the 1.1226 ny high
Holding the 1.1200 round number keeps price mid-range around the 50% fib
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift this read via US front-end pricing
15:16 UTC
Intraday recovery off the lows, now stalling · RSI 61 · price 1.12038
Higher low at 1.1180 after London low; NY spike above Asian high rejected.
London extended euro-specific selling to a 1.1172 session low on French OAT pressure. A 1.1180 higher low held, and early NY pushed through the 1.1212 Asian high to a 1.1226 session high as US yields pulled back. That break was rejected within two bars, and price is back at 1.1204, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the rally and just above the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1180 higher low and the rising trendline
Loss of the 1.1172 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close back above the 1.1212 Asian high reopens the 1.1226 session high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off London low; false break above Asian high.
London ground lower to the 1.1172 london low on euro-specific French OAT selling. NY rallied in higher lows as US yields eased and spiked through the 1.1212 asian high to a 1.1226 session high, but the 14:45 bar rejected straight back inside the range, leaving a false break with price sitting near the 50% fib of the rebound and just above 1.1200 psych.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11899, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1212 asian high would negate the false break
Loss of 1.1200 psych opens a retest of the 1.1190 asian low and the rebound trendline
Break below 1.1172 london low would resume the lower-low sequence
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift USD yields and this read
14:46 UTC
Intraday reversal higher after a London-session low · RSI 69 · price 1.12138
Break above the Asian range high, now retesting it after a rejection at the session high.
French fiscal stress kept EUR sliding through London to a 1.11716 low. The NY rally then broke the 1.1200 psych level and the asian high at 1.12124, and a rejection at the 1.12264 session high has price back retesting the asian high with RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 1.12124, 1.1200, 1.11797
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1200 psych level would mark the move above the asian high as a false break.
Holding the asian high at 1.12124 keeps the breakout intact. A close above the 1.12264 session high opens the 1.1250 round number.
A break of rising support through the 1.11797 higher low would undo the NY rally structure.
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could materially shift this read.
Higher low at 1.1180, Asian high broken into NY open.
London broke the Asian range and fell to 1.1172 on French fiscal stress, but a higher low at 1.1180 after US claims started a recovery of the London leg. A 17-pip bar into NY open cleared the 1.1200 round number and the Asian high at 1.1212, printing a new session high at 1.1217 with RSI(14) near 72, extended but not extreme.
Support: 1.12124, 1.1200, 1.11797
Resistance: 1.12173
What it said to watch
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.1212 Asian high would mark a false break
Holding the 1.1200 round number keeps the higher-low trendline intact
Failure at the 1.1180 higher low reopens the 1.1172 London low
14:16 UTC
NY rebound after London selloff · RSI 61 · price 1.12001
Higher low at 1.1180, price retesting 1.1200 from below.
London broke the Asian range low and slid to a 1.1172 session low as French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. NY has put in a 1.1180 higher low and is retesting the 1.1200 round number, about 70% of the way back toward the 1.1212 Asian high.
Support: 1.11797, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1204 opens the path to the 1.1212 asian high
Rejection at the 1.1200 round number with a break of the 1.1180 higher low points back to the 1.1172 session low
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift this read
14:02 UTC
Rebound from London low, higher low in NY · RSI 59 · price 1.11964
London broke the Asian low, NY reclaimed it; higher low at 1.1180, price retesting 1.1200.
London broke below the asian low at 1.1190 as French OAT stress and firm US yields weighed, printing a session low at 1.1172 late in London. NY lifted price back inside the Asian range, and a higher low at 1.1180 after the claims print has it retesting the 1.1200 round number, which sits at the 61.8% fib of the asian high to session low drop.
Support: 1.11899, 1.11797, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number opens the asian high at 1.1212
Close back below the 1.1190 asian low revives the London breakdown
Loss of the 1.1180 higher low and its trendline exposes the 1.1172 session low
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC; pushback on further hikes could shift this read
13:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY bounce stalling under 1.1200 · RSI 60 · price 1.11939
London lower lows to 1.1172; NY higher low at 1.1180, capped at 1.1199.
London broke below the Asian range and pressed to a 1.1172 london low as French spread stress weighed on EUR. The NY bounce printed a higher low at the 1.1180 ny low. Price is back above EMA20 and EMA50 but stalled near the 61.8% fib at the 1.1199 ny high, with a rejection there after the 12:30 UTC claims whipsaw.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1199, 1.1212
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1199 ny high and the 1.1200 handle would reclaim the 61.8% fib and open the 1.1212 asian high
Break of the 1.1180 ny low negates the higher-low read and exposes the 1.1172 london low
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC), plus any fresh OAT spread headlines, could materially shift this read
13:32 UTC
London downtrend, early-NY rebound · RSI 55 · price 1.11908
Higher low at 1.1180 after 1.1172 London low; retesting Asian low.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1190 and stretched to a 1.1172 london low as French issuance headlines and firm US yields weighed on EUR. Early NY hours have since printed a higher low at 1.1180 and pushed price back to the Asian low, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the London drop. Price is pressing EMA50 near 1.1192, and the 12:15 UTC spike high at 1.1199 is capping the move so far.
Support: 1.11899, 1.11797, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.11987, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1199 spike high reclaims the Asian range and puts the 1.1212 asian high back in play
Loss of the 1.1180 higher low breaks the rising support line and reopens the 1.1172 london low
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
13:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in early NY · RSI 52 · price 1.11878
Lower highs after London's Asian-range break; early NY ranging 1.1180–1.1200.
London broke the asian low near 1.1190 and extended to a 1.1172 session low, with EUR weighed by the French issuance-duration report and firmer US yields. The pre-NY bounce stalled at 1.1199, just under the london high and the 61.8% fib, and the US claims beat (197K) sent price back to the 1.1180 ny swing low, leaving early NY ranging 1.1180–1.1200 with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1200, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1200 london high puts price back inside the Asian range and opens the 1.1212 asian high
Break below the 1.1180 ny swing low exposes the 1.1172 session low; a close under it extends the lower-low sequence
Holding below 1.1190 asian low keeps the London breakdown structure intact
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could materially shift this read
London lower lows below Asian range; 61.8% retrace rejected.
London broke below the Asian range low near 1.1190 and stepped down to a 1.1172 session low. The 12:00–12:15 UTC pop stalled at the 1.1199 rebound high, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian-high-to-session-low drop, and the 12:30 UTC jobless claims bar reversed it. Price sits back on the 1.1180 psych shelf with RSI(14) neutral near 47, while French fiscal stress and firm US yields keep EUR heavy.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1199, 1.1212
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1172 session low extends the London lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the 1.1199 rebound high negates the rejection and puts the 1.1212 asian high back in play
Repeated M15 closes below 1.1180 psych would turn the shelf into resistance
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could shift US yields and this read
London lower lows to 1.1172; pre-NY bounce rejected under 1.1200.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1190 and stepped lower to a 1.1172 session low, with French spread stress and firm US yields weighing on EUR. A sharp pre-NY bounce stalled just under the 1.1200 round number, and the 12:30 UTC jobless claims bar reversed it. Price now sits near the 61.8% fib of that bounce at 1.1182.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.1182 exposes the 1.1172 session low.
A break of 1.1172 extends the London lower-low sequence.
An M15 close back above the asian low at 1.1190 reopens a test of the 1.1200 round number.
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours.
London lower highs to 1.1172, rebound broke trendline, now at 50% retrace.
London sold off from the asian high at 1.1212 to a session low at 1.1172 as French spread stress and firm US yields weighed on EUR. A 27-pip rebound into the NY open broke the London lower highs trendline and stalled at a rebound high of 1.1199, just under the 1.1200 round number. Price now sits on the 50% retrace near 1.1192, holding the asian low with ema20 at 1.1187 just below.
Support: 1.11899, 1.1187, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.11987, 1.1200, 1.12124
What it said to watch
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) falls in the current bar; Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the asian low at 1.1190 and ema20 turns the rebound into a lower high
Close above the 1.1200 round number and rebound high clears the 61.8% retrace, opening the asian high at 1.1212
Loss of the 1.1172 session low resumes the London lower highs sequence
EUR/USD slid below the 1.1190–1.1212 Asian range into London on French spread stress and firm US yields. It then printed a chain of lower highs down to a 1.1172 session low. The latest push cleared the descending trendline but is stalling at the 50% fib near 1.1188, with RSI(14) near 46 and price pinned to EMA20.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.1188, 1.1192, 1.1200
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 200K) land within the next bar and could reset the session range
M15 close above the 1.1192 lower high confirms the trendline break, with the 1.1200 round number above
Failure back below the 1.1172 session low exposes yesterday's prior low at 1.1166
Kashkari later in NY hours could shift USD tone
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pace slowing · RSI 36 · price 1.11805
London lower highs and lower lows below the Asian range.
London opened by breaking below the Asian low near 1.1190 and has stepped lower from there, with French fiscal stress weighing on EUR. The ECB Accounts bar printed a new session low at 1.1172 before recovering to 1.1180, though price is still capped by the London lower highs. The last lower high at 1.1186 is the near cap, and yesterday's 1.1165 prior low sits below.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.1190, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1186 lower high and trendline breaks the London lower-high chain
Reclaiming the 1.1190 Asian low would put the 1.1200 round number back in play
Failure at the 1.1172 session low exposes the 1.1165 prior low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, early in the NY session, could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 31 · price 1.11775
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain from 1.1200.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1190 at the open and has printed a lower-high chain from 1.1200, with each bounce capped below the descending trendline and the latest lower high at 1.1186. The session low at 1.11735 sits about 9 pips above the prior low at 1.1165 from yesterday's NY session, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet stretched. ECB Accounts are due on this bar and fall into an already heavy euro tape.
Support: 1.11735, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.11899, 1.1200
What it said to watch
ECB Accounts releasing now (11:30 UTC) could break the lower-high chain either way
M15 close above the 1.1186 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Reclaim of the 1.1190 Asian low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.11735 session low exposes the prior low at 1.1165
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, around the NY open
11:16 UTC
Downtrend since London open, lower highs intact · RSI 36 · price 1.11788
Asian range broken lower; LH/LL chain through London.
London broke the 1.1195–1.1212 Asian range lower at the open, with the euro-specific French fiscal stress and a firm dollar behind the move. Late London has printed a lower high at 1.1186 and a fresh session low at 1.1174, now about 9 pips above yesterday's 1.1164 prior low. RSI(14) is near 36, soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.11735, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.11945, 1.12124
What it said to watch
ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC are the immediate risk; a hawkish read from oversold levels could squeeze price back toward the asian low
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and the NY open can extend or reverse the London leg
An M15 close above the 1.1186 lower high breaks the LH chain and puts 1.1195 (38.2–50% fib zone) in play
Failure to hold the 1.1174 session low exposes the 1.1164 prior low
11:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 37 · price 1.11805
Asian range broken lower; LH/LL chain through London.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1190 and has printed lower highs and lower lows since. Price sits a few pips above the 1.1176 session low with yesterday's 1.1165 prior low below, as French fiscal stress and a firm USD weigh. RSI(14) near 37 is not stretched, and ATR runs about 7 pips per bar.
Support: 1.11757, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.1190, 1.1200
What it said to watch
ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1186 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Reclaim of the 1.1190 asian low and the 1.1200 round number puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.1176 session low exposes yesterday's 1.1165 prior low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC are the next USD risk
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 37 · price 1.11819
LH/LL chain from Asian high 1.1212.
Asia peaked at 1.1212, and London has since printed lower highs at the 1.1200 London high and the 1.1192 lower high, with a fresh session low at 1.1176. French fiscal nerves and a firm USD keep EUR heavy. Price sits below both EMAs, and RSI(14) near 37 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.11757, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.12004
What it said to watch
ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1176 session low exposes yesterday's 1.1164 prior low
M15 close above the 1.1192 lower high breaks the London LH chain; reclaiming the 1.1200 London high puts the 61.8% fib back in play
Asian range broken lower, lower highs and grinding lower lows.
London broke the 1.1198–1.1212 Asian range lower and has printed a chain of lower highs into a 1.1178 session low, with the 1.1192 lower high sitting at the 38.2% fib of the drop. RSI(14) is near 39 and bars are compressing just above the low, with French fiscal stress and a firm USD behind the slide ahead of ECB Accounts.
Support: 1.1178, 1.1164
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1198, 1.1212
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1178 session low exposes yesterday's 1.1164 prior low
M15 close above the 1.1192 lower high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 1.1198 asian low and the 1.12 pivot next
ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 40 · price 1.11813
LH/LL chain below the Asian range, pressing the session low.
London broke down out of the 1.1198–1.1212 Asian range after soft German exports, with each bounce capped lower at 1.1204, 1.1200 and 1.1192, forming the lower-highs line. Price is pinned at the 1.1179 session low with RSI(14) near 40, not stretched, and the 1.1200 round number now overhead.
Support: 1.11792, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1200, 1.12124
What it said to watch
ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1192 lower high breaks the London lower-highs chain
Reclaim of the 1.1200 round number puts the 1.1212 asian high back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC lands early in the NY session
10:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 34 · price 1.11809
Asian range broken lower; London lower-high chain into the session low.
The Asian high at 1.1212 capped the session, and the Asian range gave way before London. Lower highs at 1.1204, 1.1200 and 1.1192 have pressed price into the London low at 1.1180, with EUR heavy on French bond stress and a German exports miss. RSI(14) sits near 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1200, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1192 lower high breaks the London lower-highs chain
Acceptance below the 1.1180 london low exposes yesterday's prior low at 1.1164
1.1200 round number is the session pivot; a reclaim neutralises the Asian range break
ECB's Lane at 10:00 UTC, the ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs pressing a flat 1.1182 base, mid-London.
London broke below the Asian range and has tested the 1.1182 london low twice. Each bounce is capped by a falling trendline of lower highs from the 1.1212 asia high, with a rejection at the 1.1200 london high at 08:30 UTC. RSI(14) sits near 39 and EUR stays heavy on French bond stress.
Support: 1.11816, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12004, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1182 london low opens the path to the 1.1164 wed low
M15 close above the lower highs trendline and the 1.1200 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and points back toward the 1.1212 asia high
ECB's Lane at 10:00 UTC and ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC adds USD-side risk into the NY open
The London open broke the Asian low at 1.1190. The London low at 1.1182 has held twice since, while highs keep stepping lower from the 1.2124 Asian high. Price is retesting the broken Asian low from below as French bond stress and a firm USD cap the euro ahead of Lane and the ECB accounts.
Support: 1.11816, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.11899, 1.1200, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.1190 and the lower-highs line near the 1.1200 round number negates the range break
Failure to hold the london low at 1.1182 opens the path to the prior low at 1.1164
Lane speech 10:00 UTC and ECB accounts 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk
09:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.11831
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower-high sequence pressing the London low.
London opened with a break of the Asian range low and printed the london low at 1.1182. The bounce stalled at 1.1200, the fib 61.8 of the asian high–london low drop, and the latest lower high at 1.1193 has price back on 1.1182 for a second test. Firm USD on hawkish FOMC minutes and French bond stress keep EUR heavy into the ECB accounts.
Support: 1.11816, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.11928, 1.12004, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1182 london low confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.1165 wed low
Close above the 1.1193 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1200 fib 61.8 sits above
Lane at 10:00 UTC and ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC; a 1.1212 asian high retest needs a clear USD reversal
08:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 1.11883
Lower highs from the 1.1212 asian high, London low 1.1182 holding.
Each high since the 1.1212 asian high has been lower, tracked by a descending trendline. The London-open dip to the 1.1182 london low drew buyers, but the 08:30 bar was rejected at the 1.1200 round number around Waller's remarks. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the rally from yesterday's 1.1165 low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR about 7 pips.
Support: 1.11816, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1182 london low (61.8% fib zone) confirms a lower-low and exposes yesterday's low at 1.1165
An M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the asian high at 1.1212 sits above
ECB Lane at 10:00 UTC and ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC
London open swept below the Asian range and reclaimed it; lower highs from the 1.1212 Asian high.
The London open swept the Asian low at 1.1190 down to a London low of 1.1182, then reclaimed the range. Price is back at 1.1199, pressing the lower-highs line off the 1.1212 Asian high and sitting on the 61.8% retrace of that drop. EUR is stabilising after yesterday's 1.1165 prior low. RSI(14) is neutral, price is pinned around EMA20/50, and Waller is due at 08:30 UTC.
Support: 1.11899, 1.11816, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12037, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 pre-ldn high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1212 asian high in play
Failure back below the 1.1190 asian low reopens the 1.1182 london low, with the 1.1165 prior low beneath
Waller (08:30 UTC), Lane (10:00 UTC) and the ECB Accounts (11:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; positioning leaves room for a squeeze through 1.1200
08:17 UTC
Intraday drift lower, lower highs since Asia · RSI 43 · price 1.11963
London-open false break below Asian range low, rebound to 50% retrace.
London open dipped below the Asian range low to the 1.1182 London low. The move was reclaimed within the hour, with a higher low at 1.1189 since. Price sits at 1.1196, near the 50% retrace of the Asian high–London low move, just under the 1.1200 psych level and below both EMAs, with lower highs from the 1.1212 Asian high capping rebounds.
Support: 1.1189, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1204, 1.1212
What it said to watch
Waller at 08:30 UTC, then ECB Lane at 10:00 and ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1204 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 1.1212 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1189 higher low exposes the 1.1182 London low, then the 1.1165 prior low from yesterday
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is the next USD-side risk for the session range
08:01 UTC
Intraday down from the Asian high, stabilising · RSI 41 · price 1.11938
London open sweep below the Asian low reclaimed; lower highs capped near 1.1197.
EUR faded from the 1.12124 Asian high, and the 06:00 UTC German exports miss coincided with a slide to the 1.1190 Asian low. The London open swept that low to 1.11816 before reclaiming it. Early London is now coiling between the Asian low and a 1.1197 cap at the 50% fib of the Asian high-London low move.
Support: 1.11899, 1.11816, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.12037, 1.12124
What it said to watch
Waller at 08:30 UTC, Lane at 10:00 UTC and ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close back below the 1.1190 Asian low reopens the 1.1182 London low, then the 1.1165 prior low
M15 close above the 1.1197 50% fib cap exposes the 1.1204 prior high and the Asian high
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) are a NY-open volatility risk
07:31 UTC
Intraday lower highs since Asian peak, bouncing · RSI 43 · price 1.11953
London open swept below Asian low, reclaimed it.
Lower highs followed the 1.1212 Asian high. London open then broke the 1.1190 Asian low and tagged 1.1182, matching yesterday's London low. Price has since snapped back to 1.1195, roughly a 44% fib retrace of the Asian high to London low drop, and sits just under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 43 as USD stays firm on hawkish Fed pricing.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11816, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12037, 1.12124
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1190 Asian low reopens 1.1182 london low, then the 1.1165 prior low
M15 close above the 1.1204 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and targets the 1.1212 asian high
Waller 08:30 UTC and ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC (HIGH) could materially shift this read
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC during NY hours
07:16 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs since Asia · RSI 34 · price 1.11898
Asian range broken lower into London open, lower-high sequence.
Pre-London selling took out the 1.1194 Asian low. London open then extended the move to a 1.1182 session low, near yesterday's early-London swing, as French fiscal stress and firm US yields kept EUR heavy. A rejection at the 1.1204 lower high left a sequence of lower highs from the 1.1212 Asian high, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.11816, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.11945, 1.12037, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1194 asian low turns the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1182 session low opens the 1.1164 prior low
Close above the 1.1204 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Waller 08:30 UTC and Lane 10:00 UTC could shift this read; ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC is high risk
07:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 32 · price 1.11875
London open broke below Asian range low; lower-high sequence from 1.1212.
Rejection at the 1.1204 lower high before London open, then a range break below the 1.1190 asian low, with price now at 1.1188 and RSI(14) near 32. The firm USD after the hawkish FOMC minutes keeps supply capping each bounce. Price is pressing the 1.1182 swing low, which lines up with the 61.8% of yesterday's NY rebound fib from the 1.1165 day low to the 1.1212 asian high.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1204, 1.1212
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1190 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1182 swing low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.1165 day low
Close above the 1.1204 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the asian high
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Recovery from prior low, now ranging · RSI 52 · price 1.12018
Higher lows above 1.1165, capped by 1.1212 asian high.
Pair has rebuilt from yesterday's 1.1165 prior low into a 1.1190–1.1212 band. The asian high at 1.1212 capped the bounce, and the Frankfurt-hours dip to the 1.1190 data low, around the mixed German trade figures, was a false break of the Asian low that held near the 38.2% of the rebound fib, keeping the higher lows line intact. Price sits at 1.1202 just under the 1.1204 ny high into London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12037, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 ny high reopens the 1.1212 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1190 data low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 1.1165 prior low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC to follow
06:31 UTC
Flat, lower highs since Asia · RSI 50 · price 1.11991
Asian range 1.1195–1.1212 with an early-London false break below the range low.
London open pushed through the asian low at 1.1195 to a london low of 1.1190, then reversed straight back into the range. Price sits at 1.1199, just below both EMAs and capped by lower highs from the 1.1212 asian high and the 1.1207 swing high, after yesterday's French-bond-driven slide to the 1.1165 prior low.
Support: 1.11945, 1.11899, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12071, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 london low turns the false break into a range break and exposes the 1.1165 prior low
Close above the 1.1207 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1212 asian high
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Sideways, mild lower-high drift from Asian high · RSI 43 · price 1.11971
Asian range 1.1195–1.1212 swept below pre-London, low reclaimed.
A pre-London dip swept the Asian range low to a 1.1190 pre-London low around the mixed German trade data and was bought back to 1.1197. Price now sits mid-range under the 1.1207 swing high and the 1.1212 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 43 and no directional momentum ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1212
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.1190 pre-London low turns the sweep into a range break and exposes yesterday's 1.1165 prior low
Close above the 1.1207 swing high breaks the Asian lower highs and puts the 1.1212 Asian high in play
Waller at 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.1207 then break of the Asian range low.
Late Asia printed a lower high at 1.1207, then a 10-pip bar broke the Asian low at 1.1192. That put price back under the 1.1200 round number and both EMAs as French bond stress and hawkish Fed repricing weigh on EUR. RSI(14) is near 34 and the drop has paused at the 38.2% fib of the 1.1165–1.1212 recovery, with the 50% fib at 1.1188 just below.
Support: 1.11917, 1.11885, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.11976, 1.1200, 1.12124
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 1.1198 broken low and the 1.1200 round number negates the Asian range break
M15 close below the 50% fib at 1.1188 exposes the ny low at 1.1165
Lower-high trendline from the 1.1212 asian high caps near 1.1205; a break above it changes the read
Eurogroup 08:00 UTC, Waller 08:30 UTC and ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Flat after Asian bounce, lower high in place · RSI 48 · price 1.12018
Asian spike to 1.1212 faded; compression 1.1198–1.1207 under a lower-highs line.
The Asia session lifted price from the 1.1195 Asian low to the 1.1212 Asian high before supply capped it. Price has since compressed between the 1.1198 pullback low and a 1.1207 lower high and now sits on the 61.8% retrace near 1.1200 ahead of London open. The bounce follows Wednesday's slide to 1.1165 on French bond stress and the hawkish Fed minutes. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips, typical of quiet late-Asia trade.
Support: 1.11976, 1.11945, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.12071, 1.12124, 1.12315
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1198 pullback low exposes the 1.1195 Asian low, then the 1.1188 rollover low
M15 close above the 1.1207 lower high and the 1.1212 Asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline; yesterday's 1.1231 prior high is the next reference
London open, Eurogroup 08:00 UTC and Waller 08:30 UTC could expand range well beyond the ~3-pip ATR
ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC are the main later-session risks for the 1.1200 handle
Tight Asian range 1.1195–1.1212, higher low at 1.1198.
Late Asia, 90 minutes before London open, with price parked mid-range near the 1.1200 psych level. Yesterday's London selloff on renewed French bond stress made a swing low at 1.1165, and price has since recovered. The Asian high at 1.1212 capped the bounce and a higher low at 1.1198 is holding along the Asian trendline. The Asian low at 1.1195 sits on the 38.2% fib of the swing low to Asian high leg, and ATR near 3.4 pips shows compressed conditions.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.12325
What it said to watch
M15 close below the Asian low at 1.1195 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 50% fib near 1.1189
M15 close above the Asian high at 1.1212 opens the prior high area at 1.1230–1.1233
Eurogroup 08:00 UTC, Waller 08:30 UTC and ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC could break the Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could reset the 1.1200 psych area and the swing low at 1.1165
05:16 UTC
Recovering, higher lows off NY low · RSI 53 · price 1.12067
Higher-low chain from 1.1165, compressing under Asian high.
Late Asia, pre-London. EUR/USD has carved higher lows since yesterday's NY low at 1.1165 after the hawkish FOMC Minutes and French bond selloff. Asia briefly pushed to the 1.1212 Asian high, then pulled back to a 1.1198 swing low that held just above the Asian low and the 1.1200 area, with the higher lows trendline intact. Price is now compressing near 1.1207 with ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.11976, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.1223
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1198 swing low and 1.1195 Asian low breaks the higher lows chain
Clearance of the 1.1212 Asian high exposes 1.1223, the breakdown level from yesterday's London selloff
Failure back toward 1.1165 NY low would put the 17-month low zone back in focus
Eurogroup 08:00 UTC, Waller 08:30, ECB Accounts 11:30 and US Claims 12:30 could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Recovery off prior-day low, stalling below Asian high · RSI 54 · price 1.12044
Higher lows since 12:15 UTC Tue; tight coil above 1.1200.
Late Asia session, about two hours before London open. EUR/USD has rebuilt from the 1.1165 prior low on a rising trendline of higher lows. The Asian high at 1.1212 was rejected and the dip held 1.1198, so price is now coiling just above the 1.1200 pivot. ATR has compressed to under 4 pips, and the modest Asian bounce follows yesterday's French OAT and Fed-minutes sell-off.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.12325
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1200 pivot and the 1.1195 Asian low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the prior low at 1.1165
Close above the 1.1212 Asian high reopens the 1.1232 prior high, last tested before Tuesday's 07:15 UTC drop
London open, with Eurogroup at 08:00 UTC and Waller at 08:30 UTC, could break the compressed Asian range
ECB Accounts (11:30 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) are the main scheduled shocks to this read
Holding above the 38.2% fib near 1.1194 keeps the recovery structure intact
04:46 UTC
Recovering off prior low, now flat around 1.1200 · RSI 54 · price 1.12037
Higher lows from 1.1164; Asia range 1.1195–1.1212.
Late Asia session. EUR is holding the 1.1200 pivot as the USD eases slightly after the hawkish FOMC minutes. A push to the 1.1212 asia high was rejected, but the 1.1198 pullback low held and the rising trendline from yesterday's 1.1164 prior low remains intact, with ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 1.11976, 1.1188, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.1223
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1212 asia high opens the 1.1223 pre-drop area from yesterday's London selloff
Break of the 1.1198 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1188 rollover low
Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below Asian high · RSI 53 · price 1.12037
Higher lows off 1.1165 day low; Asian high rejected, pullback held 1.1198.
Recovery from the 1.1165 day low has built rising lows through NY and Asia. The Asian high at 1.1212 was rejected, and the pullback low at 1.1198 sits near the 31% recovery fib and the 1.1200 pivot. Late Asia now, with RSI(14) neutral at about 53 and ATR near 3.5 pips; London has yet to test the Asian range.
Support: 1.11976, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.12237
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1198 pullback low and the rising lows line undercuts the recovery; 1.1194 asian low is next
Close above the 1.1212 asian high opens the 1.1224 breakdown area from yesterday's London drop
Eurogroup at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could shift this read; ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC is the larger risk
04:16 UTC
Rebound from day low, stalling mid-Asian range · RSI 57 · price 1.1204
Asian range 1.1194–1.1212 with a higher low at 1.1198.
Asia has reclaimed 1.1200 after yesterday's London selloff to the 1.1165 day low, a modest bounce as DXY eased off its highs. The Asian high at 1.1212 drew a rejection past the 61.8% fib of that selloff, and price now sits mid-range late in the Asia session, holding a higher low at 1.1198 above the 1.1194 Asian low.
Support: 1.1198, 1.1194, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1234
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1212 asian high opens the path toward the 1.1234 24h high
Failure to hold the 1.1198 higher low and 1.1194 asian low exposes the 1.1165 day low
London open with Eurogroup 08:00 UTC and Waller 08:30 UTC could break the Asian range
ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Yesterday's London-session slide on hawkish FOMC minutes and French bond stress bottomed at the NY low of 1.1165. Asia has since printed a higher-low chain and was rejected at the asian high of 1.1212. The 03:00 UTC pullback low at 1.1198 held near the 23.6–38.2% fib, and price sits mid-range at 1.1204 with RSI(14) ~56 as the USD eases in Asia.
Support: 1.11976, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.12315
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.1212 extends the higher-low chain toward the 1.1231 breakdown area
Loss of the pullback low at 1.1198 and the asian low at 1.1194 breaks the asia higher lows trendline and puts the NY low at 1.1165 back in view
Waller 08:30 UTC, Lane 10:00 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.1165, inside 1.1194–1.1212 Asian range.
EUR/USD has climbed from yesterday's 1.1165 day low, set after French bond stress drove the London selloff, in a higher-lows sequence. Asia tagged the 1.1212 asian high, and the pullback held the 1.1198 swing low as US yields eased, putting price back above 1.1200. The Asian range of 1.1194–1.1212 is intact roughly three hours before London open, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.11976, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.12235, 1.12378
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1212 asian high opens the 1.1224 prior break area, where yesterday's London selloff started, then the 1.1238 prior high.
An M15 close below the 1.1198 swing low and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 1.1194 asian low, which sits at the 38.2% recovery fib; losing that targets the 1.1165 day low.
Waller at 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Higher lows since the 1.1165 swing low; Asian push to 1.1212 rejected, price back mid-range.
Yesterday's London-NY selloff bottomed at the 1.1165 swing low, then the pair built higher lows. In the Asia session, EUR/USD lifted through the 1.1203 ny high to a session high at 1.1212 as US yields eased, but that push faded back to the 1.1198 pullback low. Price now sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.11976, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1194 asia low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the swing low to session high rebound, ends the higher-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.1203 ny high reopens the 1.1212 session high
London open in ~3.5h is likely to expand the narrow Asian range
Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Intraday bounce rolling over · RSI 44 · price 1.11986
Asian range 1.1195–1.1212, back near the base.
Late Asia session: the climb to the asian high at 1.1212 met rejection and has given back the whole move, with price at 1.1199, back under the ny high and EMA20, and RSI(14) near 44. Yesterday's London selloff to the day low at 1.1165 still frames the 24h move as EUR stays heavy on French bond stress and a firm dollar.
Support: 1.1195, 1.1188, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1212
What it said to watch
Break of the asian low at 1.1195, which lines up with the 38.2% fib, puts the rollover low at 1.1188 and the day low at 1.1165 back in play
M15 close back above the ny high at 1.1203 reopens the asian high at 1.1212
Waller at 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts at 11:30 and US jobless claims at 12:30 could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Recovery from london low, stalling at 1.1200 · RSI 49 · price 1.12023
Asian range 1.1195–1.1212, rejection at range high.
Yesterday's London slide to the 1.1165 london low, driven by French OAT stress and hawkish FOMC minutes, has been fully reclaimed back to the 1.1200 round number. The mid-Asia push to the 1.1212 asian high met rejection and price is back at 1.1200, just under the 1.1203 ny high, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR(14) under 4 pips.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1195 asian low puts the 1.1165 london low back in view
M15 close above the 1.1212 asian high breaks the Asian range higher; the 1.1203 ny high is the first cap on the way
Holding the 1.1200 round number keeps price at roughly the 23.6% retracement of the london low–asian high fib
Waller at 08:30 UTC and ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Recovery off lows, Asia momentum cooling · RSI 61 · price 1.12069
Higher lows from 1.1165; Asian range broken higher.
Late Asia session pushed through yesterday's NY prior high at 1.1203 to a session high of 1.1212 before easing back. The move retraces the London–NY selloff that ran from 1.1224 to the 1.1165 swing low, as the dollar softened slightly in Asia. Price sits above the rising support line, with the Asian low at 1.1195 near the 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.12035, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.1224
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.1203 prior high keeps the range break intact; a close back below it reopens the asian low at 1.1195
M15 close above the 1.1212 session high exposes the 1.1224 breakdown pt from yesterday's London open
Break of rising support toward the 1.1165 swing low would negate the higher-low sequence
Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Short-term recovery, higher lows off the day low · RSI 67 · price 1.12092
Asia breakout above the 1.1203 range top, now pressing the 61.8% retrace.
Late in the Asia session, price cleared the 1.1203 range top that capped four times yesterday. The session high at 1.1212 sits on the 61.8% retrace of the London-hours drop from 1.1238 to the 1.1165 day low, which came as French bond stress hit EUR. Higher lows along the rising trendline keep the bounce intact with RSI(14) near 67, though the digest notes these short-covering bounces have faded quickly so far.
Support: 1.1203, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.11212, 1.1224
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1203 range top turns the Asia breakout into a false break
Close above the 1.1212 session high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 1.1224 london break
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.1195 asian low ends the higher-low chain back toward the 1.1165 day low
Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Recovery from London low, higher lows · RSI 72 · price 1.12119
Asia break above 1.1203 range top, testing 61.8% fib.
Asia session pushed through the 1.1203 range top that capped NY several times, extending the higher-low chain off yesterday's 1.1165 swing low; price is now at the 61.8% fib of that selloff near 1.1211, with RSI(14) at 72. London's drop came on renewed French bond stress, and the rebound fits the short-covering risk the digest flags from record EUR shorts.
Support: 1.1203, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1223, 1.1239
What it said to watch
Slip back below the 1.1203 range top would mark the Asian move as a false break
M15 close above the 1.1223 breakdown level clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 1.1239 prior high
Loss of the 1.11945 asian low breaks the rising lows trendline
Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Mid-Asia session, price has cleared the 1.1203 range top, which capped both the late-NY high and the Asian range, and now presses the 61.8% fib of the London-session drop near 1.1210. That drop came on renewed French OAT stress and firm US yields. The bounce rides a higher-low chain and rising trendline from the 1.1165 swing low, with RSI(14) near 67 and ranges compressed to roughly 3–4 pips a bar.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1195, 1.1182
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1225, 1.1239
What it said to watch
Slipping back below the 1.1203 range top into the Asian range turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close below the 1.1195 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline; the 1.1182 swing low sits beneath
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 1.1210 opens the 1.1225 breakdown area, then the 1.1239 prior high
Waller at 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Recovering off day low, higher lows · RSI 60 · price 1.12043
Higher-low chain since 1.1165, price at the 1.1203 range top.
Asia session is edging a pip through the 1.1203 range top, which capped NY and late-session highs four times. Lows have risen steadily along rising support off yesterday's 1.1165 day low, which marked the low of the London-into-NY slide on the USD bid after FOMC minutes. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the decline fib, and ATR near 3 pips reflects thin Asian conditions.
Support: 1.1203, 1.11945, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12105, 1.1222
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1203 range top turns the poke into a false break
A break of rising support and the 1.1194 swing low ends the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 1.1211 opens the 1.1222 breakdown area where the London selloff began
Waller 08:30 UTC and ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range capped at 1.1203 after rebound from 1.1165 day low.
The London sell-off broke 1.1225 and set a 1.1165 day low into the London-NY transition, as USD firmed on hawkish FOMC minutes and the record 10y auction yield. NY recovered to the 1.1203 range top, near the 50% fib retrace of the drop, and early Asia is compressing in a 1.1194–1.1203 range under that cap with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.11945, 1.1188, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1225
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top opens the 1.1225 breakdown zone
Failure to hold the 1.1194 asian low exposes the 1.1188 range floor, then the 1.1165 day low
Break of the rising trendline from the day low would undo the rebound structure
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.1165 under flat range top at 1.1203.
EUR/USD broke down at Wednesday's London open as French bond stress returned and the firmer USD added pressure, with the day low at 1.1165 set in NY. Since then, higher lows along a rising trendline are pressing a flat 1.1203 range top, which has seen four rejections and sits just under the 61.8% fib of the drop. The Asia session is compressing between the 1.1194 Asian low and 1.1203. ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.11945, 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1225
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top clears the 61.8% fib and exposes the 1.1225 breakdown area
Loss of the 1.1194 asian low and the rising trendline puts the 1.1182 swing low and 1.1165 day low back in play
London open, Eurogroup at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could expand range from the compressed Asia ATR
01:01 UTC
Flat after London sell-off and NY recovery · RSI 58 · price 1.11988
10-hour range 1.1188–1.1203 with rising lows under a flat cap.
Early Asia sits inside a 1.1188–1.1203 range that has held since the NY rally off the 1.1165 day low, which followed the London sell-off on renewed French OAT stress and a firm USD. The range top at 1.1203 has capped three times, while rising lows from the day low hold the Asian low at 1.1195; ATR(14) has compressed to about 3 pips and RSI(14) is neutral near 58.
Support: 1.11945, 1.1188, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top opens the 1.1231 London breakdown area
Loss of the 1.1195 Asian low and the rising lows line puts the 1.1188 range low in play
Failure to hold 1.1188 exposes the 1.1165 day low; the NY rally fib 50% near 1.1184 sits just below
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US claims 12:30 UTC could break the range
00:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, retracing in a tight range · RSI 53 · price 1.11988
Higher lows off 1.1165 day low, flat cap at 1.1203 range top.
The London open selloff ran from the 1.1231 pre-london high to a 1.1165 day low as French OAT stress and a firmer USD weighed. NY retraced to the 50% fib near 1.1198, and the 1.1203 range top has capped four times. Asia is compressing between the 1.1194 asian low and that cap, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 1.11945, 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.12315
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top clears the 61.8% fib at 1.1206 and opens 1.1231 pre-london
Loss of the 1.1194 asian low exposes the 1.1182 higher low, then the 1.1165 day low
Eurogroup 08:00 and Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ECB Accounts follow at 11:30
00:31 UTC
Recovery from London low, now flat · RSI 54 · price 1.1199
Tight 1.1188–1.1203 range with rising lows.
EUR/USD fell from 1.1231 to a 1.1165 day low as French OAT stress and a firmer USD hit EUR. The rebound has been rejected three times at the 1.1203 range top, just under the 61.8% retrace of the London sell-off. Early Asia session is holding above the 1.1194 Asian low and the 1.1188 rollover low, with rising lows intact and ATR compressed to about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.11945, 1.1188, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.1229
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top breaks the range and opens the 1.1229 breakdown pt
Failure below the 1.1188 rollover low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.1165 day low
Holding the 1.1194 Asian low keeps price pinned at the 50% retrace of the London sell-off
Eurogroup (08:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) around London open could break the Asian range
00:17 UTC
Sideways after London selloff, recovery stalling · RSI 47 · price 1.11964
Higher lows off 1.1164, highs capped at 1.1203.
EUR broke down from the 1.1231 pre-drop shelf at London open and printed a 1.1164 day low by midday, as the French OAT selloff and a yield- and oil-driven USD bid weighed. The NY recovery built higher lows at 1.1182 and 1.1188, but the range top at 1.1203 has now rejected three times. Early Asian session price is slipping back to 1.1196 in a tight range, with ATR(14) under 4 pips.
Support: 1.1188, 1.11823, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.12315
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 range top breaks the triple cap and opens the 1.1231 pre-drop shelf
Failure to hold the 1.1188 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.1182 higher low near the 50% recovery fib
A loss of 1.1182 puts the 1.1164 day low back in focus
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC), then ECB Lane and the ECB Accounts during London, could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Recovery from day low, stalling under flat cap · RSI 61 · price 1.12001
Higher lows from 1.1165 pressing into a triple cap at 1.1203.
London's sell-off, driven by French OAT stress and a yields- and oil-led USD bid, bottomed at the 1.1165 day low before NY. The NY recovery then built higher lows, with the 1.1182 swing low and the 1.1188 rollover low holding, but price was capped three times at 1.1203. The early Asia session is coiling just under that triple cap, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1182, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1232
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 triple cap opens the path to the 1.1232 pre-London high
Break below the 1.1188 rollover low and 1.1182 swing low undoes the higher-low line from the recovery
Loss of the 1.1165 day low puts the London sell-off back in play toward fresh 17-month lows
Eurogroup (08:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) during London could materially shift this read