21:02 UTC
Downtrend, stretched near oversold · RSI 25 · price 1.12001
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 peak; July low broken.
Five-week downtrend from the Aug 21 swing high at 1.1711, with a lower high at 1.1654 on Sep 9. Price has stayed below a falling EMA(50) since mid-September, and the late-September break of the 1.1353 july low opened the Oct 1 slide toward 1.12 as French fiscal stress pressured EUR. Demand has stepped in twice this week near the 1.1161 swing low, with RSI near oversold and the descending trendline capping the Oct 6 high at 1.1276.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1353, 1.1436
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the descending trendline and the 1.1276 oct 6 high would mark the first break in the lower-high sequence
- Daily close below the 1.1161 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1100 round number
- A reclaim of the 1.1353 july low, a former support level, would expose the 50% fib of the Aug–Oct decline at 1.1436
- Fri UMich inflation expectations and Tue Oct 13 euro-area HICP could materially shift this read
- French OAT spread headlines remain the primary EUR driver; fresh stress or relief could force a move away from 1.12