08:38 UTC
Downtrend since Aug 21 high, oversold and stalling · RSI 26 · price 1.12129
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 1.1711; 4-session base above 1.1161.
EURUSD has printed a lower-high/lower-low sequence since the Aug 21 peak at 1.1711. The early-September 1.1655 lower high and the mid-September breakdown below 1.1460 set the descending structure, with price below both a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50). French fiscal stress and OAT-Bund widening drove the slide to a 17-month low at 1.1161 this week. The last four sessions have held 1.1161–1.1276 as the USD corrects. RSI is oversold and showing a shallow bullish divergence versus the Oct 1 low, and price is pressing the falling trendline near 1.1217.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1371, 1.1460
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.1276 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the LH sequence and opens the 38.2% fib at 1.1371
- Daily close below the 1.1161 17-month low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1100 round number
- The 1.1460 breakdown level caps any deeper retracement of the Aug–Oct decline
- Renewed OAT-Bund spread widening, euro-area HICP on Oct 13 and US CPI next week could materially shift this read