Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD weekly chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
19:02 UTC
Downtrend since late-January 2026 high · RSI 36 · price 1.12532
Lower highs from 1.2083; 2026 range floor at 1.1324 broken.
The regime has been a downtrend since the 1.2083 late-January high. Lower highs at 1.1849 (April) and 1.1711 (August) define a falling trendline, and last week's close below the 1.1324 june low broke the 2026 range floor, leaving the 1.1215 swing low as the nearest reference above the 1.1065 2025 low. Price sits below both weekly EMAs, with the ema50 near 1.1550 rolling over, and has retraced past 78.6% of the 2025-26 rally. The five-week slide is driven by the French fiscal premium and a hawkish-Fed dollar; RSI near 36 is weak but not at an extreme.
Support: 1.12148, 1.10652
Resistance: 1.13242, 1.14105, 1.1550
What it said to watch
- A weekly close back above the 1.1324 june low would turn the range break into a false break
- A weekly close below the 1.1215 swing low exposes the 1.1065 2025 low and a near-full retrace of the 2025-26 rally
- Recovery above the 1.1410 march low and the ema50 near 1.1550 would challenge the falling trendline of lower highs
- Euro-area HICP (Tue 13 Oct) and US September CPI (Wed 14 Oct) could materially shift this read
- The French budget debate opening in Parliament next week keeps the euro-specific risk premium in play
08:38 UTC
Downtrend since the Jan-2026 high · RSI 38 · price 1.12532
Lower highs and lower lows; 2025-26 range floor broken.
EURUSD has been in a downtrend since the late-January 2026 high at 1.2083. Lower highs at 1.1849, 1.1797 and 1.1711 line up with lower lows through the march low at 1.1411 and the june low at 1.1324, into last week's 1.1215 swing low. Price sits well below the W1 EMA(50) near 1.1560 and has given back more than 78.6% of the 2025 rally fib, which leaves the 2025 low at 1.1066 as the next multi-quarter reference. The latest leg reflects French sovereign stress and a firm USD on a hawkish Fed; RSI near 38 is not at an extreme.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1066
Resistance: 1.1324, 1.1411, 1.1560
What it said to watch
- A weekly close back above the june low at 1.1324 would be the first break in the lower-low sequence
- Failure to hold the 1.1215 swing low exposes the 2025 low at 1.1066
- The lower highs trendline near 1.1620 and the ema50 near 1.1560 define the regime; weekly closes above both would end the downtrend read
- Reclaiming the march low at 1.1411 would put price back inside the prior range
- French OAT-Bund spread widening and next week's US CPI could materially shift this read