14:12 UTC
Downtrend since Q1 2026 peak, extending · RSI 36 · price 1.12037
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.2083 January high; Jun–Sep 1.1324–1.1711 range broken lower.
EURUSD has been in a W1 downtrend since the late-January 2026 peak at 1.2083. It printed lower highs at 1.1849 in April and 1.1711 in August, and in late September broke below the June low at 1.1324, ending the summer range. Price now sits at 17-month lows near 1.1200, just above the 1.1161 swing low. The French fiscal premium and a hawkish-Fed USD keep the pair heavy, and price trades well below the EMA(50) near 1.153. That level aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the decline and the lower-highs trendline near 1.16. Below current price, the May-25 low at 1.1065 is the last structural floor in the window before the 1.10 round number. RSI near 36 is not yet at an extreme.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1065, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1324, 1.1415, 1.1530
What it said to watch
- Weekly close back above the june low at 1.1324 would neutralise the range break; the march low at 1.1415 is the next cap
- Failure to hold the 1.1161 swing low exposes the may-25 low at 1.1065 and the 1.10 round number
- Euro-area HICP on Oct 13 and US CPI on Oct 14 could materially shift this read; a hot HICP risks a short-covering bounce from crowded positioning
- Downtrend structure stays intact while weekly closes hold below the ema50 near 1.153 and the lower-highs trendline