EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 12 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 62 · price 1.11602
Lower highs and lows from London open; base forming above 1.1151 day low.
The Asian high at 1.1217 faded from London open. Price broke the Asian low near 1.1198 and stair-stepped to a 1.1151 day low after NY close, as Hammack's hawkish remarks and WTI above $93 lifted USD. Early Asia is now pressing the 1.1161 range high off a higher low at 1.1155, with RSI(14) near 62 and the 1.1168 breakdown point just above.
Support: 1.11554, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.11678, 1.11762
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 range high opens the 1.1168 breakdown point and the fib 38.2 at 1.1176
Loss of the 1.1155 higher low puts the 1.1151 day low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read into London open
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 61 · price 1.1158
Lower highs from 1.1217 Asian high; tight 1.1151–1.1161 range since late NY.
EUR/USD failed at the 1.1217 Asian high and bled lower through London and NY on the hawkish Fed and oil-driven USD bid. Each bounce was capped, leaving a lower highs chain from the 1.1183 NY high, and the slide paused at the 1.1154 NY low and 1.1151 rollover low. Early Asia is compressing under the 1.1161 range top, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) about 2 pips, a quiet tape with no break in play.
Support: 1.1154, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1183, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 range top breaks the lower highs chain and puts the 1.1183 NY high in view
Failure to hold the 1.1151 rollover low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1145
1.1200 psych remains the reclaim level cited in the digest; the move is still well below it
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the Asian range at London open
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near day low · RSI 60 · price 1.11571
Lower highs/lower lows through London and NY, then a tight NY-afternoon range.
A USD bid on hawkish Fed talk and oil above $93 broke the Asian range low near 1.1198 at the London open. That stepped the pair down in lower highs and lower lows into a 1.1154–1.1161 NY range, the ny low to range top. Early Asia is bouncing off the 1.1151 day low with RSI(14) near 60, and the range top sits at the 38.2% fib of the NY leg from the 1.1179 ny high.
Support: 1.11541, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1179
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1151 day low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1145
Close above the 1.1161 range top (38.2% fib) puts the 1.1179 ny high back in view
Holding above the 1.1154 ny low keeps the Asian bounce intact
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into tight base · RSI 49 · price 1.11562
Lower highs and lows since London, 10-pip box since 15:45 UTC.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1198 and the 1.1200 pivot as hawkish Fed talk and oil above $93 lifted USD. NY extended the slide to the 1.1152 NY low. Since then price has held a 1.1151–1.1161 box into early Asia, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR(14) compressed to about 2 pips.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1179, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1152 NY low exits the box and puts the 1.1145 UOB target in view
Close above the 1.1161 range top opens the 1.1179 swing high, near the 38.2% retracement of Monday's decline
1.1200 broken pivot as the upper cap on any rebound
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC could break the compression
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight base · RSI 53 · price 1.11578
Lower highs and lows from Asian high, flat NY base 1.1152–1.1161.
EURUSD slid from the Asian relief high at 1.1217 through London and NY, breaking 1.1200 as the USD bid on hawkish Fed talk and oil above $93. NY then went flat in a 1.1152–1.1161 base, and early Asia is drifting inside it near the range top, with RSI(14) neutral around 53 and ATR down to roughly 2 pips.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1170
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 range top opens the broken prior low at 1.1170, near the 23.6% of the day decline fib
Failure to hold the 1.1152 session low exposes 1.1145, the UOB target
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3%) and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the range
22:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a tight base · RSI 54 · price 1.11577
Lower highs and lower lows from London open to the NY low, now a 10-pip base in early Asia.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.1198, and price stepped lower through NY in a lower-high chain to 1.1152 as the USD stayed bid and French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.1151–1.1161 base above the rollover low and pressing the descending trendline off the NY highs, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1170
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 range top and the NY highs trendline ends the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.1170 breakdown area, near the 38.2% of the Asia-NY drop
Failure to hold the 1.1151 rollover low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1145 17m low
Euro-area HICP at 06:00 UTC, ~7.5h out, could materially shift this read; a hot print meets crowded EUR shorts
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC adds USD risk into the London session
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 53 · price 1.11572
Lower highs and lower lows, tight base at session low.
London broke below the 1.1195–1.1217 Asian range at 08:00 UTC. Selling then ran through NY to a 1.1151 session low, a ~65-pip leg, with USD bid on oil and Fed hike pricing and French fiscal stress weighing on EUR. Since 15:45 UTC price has compressed under the 1.1161 range top in early Asia session trade; RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1176
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 range top opens the 1.1176 breakdown area (38.2% fib)
Failure to hold the 1.1151 session low extends the lower-low chain into the 1.1145–1.1150 lows
Euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into tight range · RSI 47 · price 1.11566
Asian range broken lower in London; flat base 1.1151–1.1161 since mid-NY.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1195 at 08:00 UTC and price fell about 65 pips to a 1.1151 session low. A bid USD and French fiscal stress drove the move. Since 16:45 UTC price has compressed under a 1.1161 range top, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47 as Asia opens thin.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1179, 1.1195
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1161 range top brings the 23.6% fib at 1.1167 and the 1.1179 swing high into view
Failure to hold the 1.1151 session low exposes the 1.1145 17-month low
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could break the range either way; Fed's Waller follows at 07:45 UTC
London broke below the Asian low near 1.1195, and NY extended the slide 66 pips off the 1.1217 high. The move came on a bid USD (oil, hawkish Fed talk) and French fiscal stress. Late trade has compressed into a 10-pip box between the 1.1151 session low and the 1.1161 range top, just above the 1.1145–1.1150 17m low zone, with RSI(14) near 31 and thin post-rollover ATR.
Support: 1.11511, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.11832, 1.11948
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1151 session low opens a test of the 17m low near 1.1145
Recovery through the 1.1161 range top puts the 1.1183 swing high in view, which aligns with the 50% fib of the decline
Reclaiming the 1.1195 Asian low would negate the intraday lower-high sequence
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read at London open
Lower highs and lows; tight post-NY coil above 1.1151.
Asia peaked at 1.1217. London broke the Asian range low near 1.1187, and NY extended through the 1.1170 ny break level to a 1.1151 session low, on a firm USD and French fiscal stress. Price is now coiling below the 1.1161 range top in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR(14) about 2 pips.
Support: 1.11511, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1170, 1.1183
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1151 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1145 17m low
Recovery above the 1.1161 range top and the 1.1170 ny break level would mark the first higher high since the NY breakdown, with the lower highs trendline overhead
1.1176 (38.2% of the day range fib) and the 1.1183 london range top cap any rebound
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia high; tight late-NY range at the lows.
London and NY extended the selloff from the 1.1217 Asia high, holding a lower-highs sequence at 1.1183/1.1179 as the USD stayed bid on oil and hawkish Fed talk while French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. Price has compressed into a 1.1152–1.1161 range late NY and just printed a fresh session low at 1.1151 near the rollover. RSI(14) sits around 31, short of extreme, and ATR is a thin 2.5 pips.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1179
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1161 range top would mark a pause in the selloff
Recovery through the 1.1179 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Acceptance below the 1.1145 17-month low extends the downtrend into fresh territory
Euro area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) at London open, plus Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling into the close · RSI 36 · price 1.11547
Lower highs from the Asian high; tight late-NY range 1.1152–1.1161.
EUR/USD fell about 65 pips off the Asian high at 1.1217. London broke the Asian range low near 1.1198, and NY extended the leg through the 1.1170 breakdown area as USD held bid on oil and hawkish Fed repricing, with French fiscal stress weighing on EUR. Late NY has compressed into a 2–3 pip ATR range between the 1.1152 session low and the 1.1161 range top, just above the 1.1145 17-month low, with RSI(14) near 36 and well off oversold.
Support: 1.11522, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1170, 1.11832
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1152 session low exposes the 1.1145 17-month low
M15 close above the 1.1161 range top ends the compression; reclaiming the 1.1170 breakdown level points to the 1.1183 swing high
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) and Waller 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read in early London
Lower highs from Asian high; late-NY compression above session low.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1198 at the open and printed lower highs off the 1.1183 London high, with USD bid on oil and hawkish Fed talk alongside French fiscal stress. NY extended the slide through the 1.1170 prior low to 1.1155. Since then price has compressed in a 9-pip box between the 1.1152 session low and the 1.1161 range top into the late-NY close, with ATR shrinking to ~2 pips.
Support: 1.11522, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1170, 1.11832
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1152 session low exposes the 17m low near 1.1145
M15 close above the 1.1161 range top ends the compression; 1.1170 prior low (23.6% fib) is the first test above
Recovery through the 1.1183 London high would break the lower-high sequence
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 37 · price 1.11544
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken at London open; thin late-NY base.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.1198 and the decline ran in steps, with the 1.1168 breakdown in the first NY hours flushing price to 1.1155 as French fiscal stress and a bid USD weighed. Late NY has drifted from a tight 1.1155–1.1161 range to a fresh session low at 1.1152, still capped by the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 37 and not oversold.
Support: 1.11522, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1168, 1.11768
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1161 NY range top and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1168 breakdown level and the fib 38.2 at 1.1177 sit above
Failure to hold the 1.1152 session low exposes the 1.1145–1.1150 17m low area
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) could materially shift this read in the London open
Rollover at 21:00 UTC thins liquidity; ATR near 2.6 pips points to compressed ranges
Lower highs from the Asian high, tight base after NY.
Asia peaked at 1.1217, then London broke the Asian range low near 1.1198 and selling ran through NY to 1.1154, with French fiscal stress and a firm USD weighing on EUR. Since late NY, price has held a 1.1152–1.1161 base under the base top, and the session low at 1.1152 was just marginally undercut. RSI is near 33 with no extreme reading.
Support: 1.11522, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.11695, 1.11832
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1152 session low exposes the 1.1145 17m low area
Recovery above the 1.1161 base top brings the 1.1170 broken low into play; the 38.2% fib near 1.1177 and the NY high at 1.1183 sit above
Euro-area HICP flash Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) could materially shift this read; ECB's Lane later Tuesday
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 34 · price 1.11534
Lower highs since Asia; late-NY range 1.1154–1.1161 testing its base.
EURUSD opened the week with a gap down. The Asian bounce to 1.1217 faded, London broke the Asian low near 1.1184, and NY extended the slide to a 1.1153 session low as the USD stayed bid and French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. Price has spent the hours after NY close in a tight 1.1154–1.1161 range under a descending lower-highs line, now leaning on the range base. RSI(14) is near 34 and not stretched, while ATR(14) has shrunk to about 2.5 pips.
Support: 1.11533, 1.1150, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1184
What it said to watch
A sustained break below the 1.1153 session low exposes the 1.1150 round number (multi-month low) and the 1.1145 UOB target
An M15 close above the 1.1161 range top and the lower-highs line would break the intraday lower-high sequence
A recovery back to the 1.1184 Asian low would mark a full retrace of the London breakdown
Euro-area HICP (Tue 06:00 UTC, f/c 3.3% YoY) and Waller (07:45 UTC) could materially shift this read at the London open
Lower highs/lower lows from Asian high; tight late-NY base above session low.
Sunday's gap lower filled in Asia but the 1.1217 Asian high capped, and London broke the Asian low with lower highs through NY. Firm USD and French fiscal stress pushed the pair to a 1.1154 session low. Price is now compressing in a 1.1154–1.1161 band below the 1.1172 breakdown and the 1.1183 NY high, just above the 1.1150 17m low, RSI(14) near 40 with ATR down to ~3 pips.
Support: 1.1154, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1172, 1.1183
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1154 session low and 1.1150 17m low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 1.1161 range top, then reclaim of the 1.1172 breakdown, breaks the late-NY compression
Hold above the 1.1183 NY high breaks the lower-high trendline
Euro area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) and Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 35 · price 1.11557
Lower highs from the 1.1217 Asia high; tight late-NY range above the session low.
After a Sunday gap-down open, EUR/USD peaked at 1.1217 in Asia, then London broke the Asian range low near 1.1198. The slide extended through NY to a 1.1154 session low as French fiscal stress and a bid USD weighed. Price has since compressed below the 1.1161 range top into late NY, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR shrinking to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.11678, 1.1178
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 range top and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.1168 breakdown shelf sits next
Failure to hold the 1.1154 session low exposes the 1.1150 psych level, which the digest flags as the 16/17-month low area
Recovery to the fib 38.2 at 1.1178 would mark a deeper retracement of the Asia-high selloff
Euro-area HICP (Tue 06:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (07:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:24 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 1.11557
Lower highs from London; tight post-NY box 1.1154–1.1161.
Asia firmed to 1.1217 on the ceasefire-driven oil dip. London and NY then printed a chain of lower highs as the USD stayed bid and French fiscal stress weighed, breaking the Asian low at 1.1184 and setting a session low at 1.1154. Since then price has compressed into a ~7-pip box under the 1.1161 range top, RSI(14) ~41, with the sell-off move still near its lows.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1179, 1.11838
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1154 session low exposes the 1.1150 17m low area
A close back above the 1.1161 range top and the 1.1179 swing high would break the lower-highs sequence
A reclaim of the 1.1184 asian low would undo the London/NY breakdown
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; tight late-NY consolidation.
London broke below the 1.1198–1.1217 Asian range, and NY extended the slide to a 1.1154 NY low. Supply capped each bounce along the falling trendline as French fiscal stress and a firm USD weighed. Since then, price has compressed in a 7-pip band under the 1.1161 consol high in thin, US-holiday trade, with RSI(14) off the lows near 37.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.11689, 1.1178
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 consol high and falling trendline would break the lower-high chain, with fib 23.6 at 1.1169 and fib 38.2 at 1.1178 above
Failure to hold the 1.1154 NY low exposes the 1.1145–1.1150 17m low area
Eurozone HICP (Tue 06:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (07:45 UTC) could materially shift this read at the London open
Lower highs from Asian high, late-NY compression above session low.
The 1.1217 Asian high capped the day. London broke below the Asian range, and NY extended the lower-high chain to a 1.1154 session low after the 1.1170 breakdown level gave way, with USD bid on Middle East tension and EUR weighed by French fiscal stress. Late-NY trade is now compressing in a 6-pip band (1.1154–1.1161) under the descending trendline, RSI(14) near 30, with the 17-month low at 1.1150 just below.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.11695, 1.1178
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1154 session low exposes the 1.1150 17-month low
Close above the 1.1161 range top and descending trendline puts the 1.1170 breakdown level back in play, with the fib 38.2 at 1.1178 above
Eurozone HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC could reset this read into London open
Lower highs from the Asian high; post-drop micro-range 1.1154–1.1161.
A firm USD in holiday-thin trade and French fiscal stress took EUR/USD through the asian low at 1.1198 in London, then through the london low at 1.1173 during NY hours. Price hit a 1.1154 session low and has since compressed into a 7-pip range under 1.1161. That leaves the day's high-to-low leg barely retraced, with RSI(14) at about 36 and recovering from the lows.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.11727, 1.11976
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1154 session low resumes the leg toward the 1.1150 17-month low
Reclaim of the 1.1161 range top, then the 1.1173 london low (near the 23.6% fib), would mark the first higher high since London
Eurozone HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) could materially shift this read; Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC adds USD risk
Lower highs from NY open, tight base above session low.
Firm USD and French fiscal stress took EUR/USD out of the 1.1198–1.1217 Asian range from London open. Lower highs off the 1.1183 ny open high carried price through the 1.1168 breakdown level to a 1.1154 session low. Since late NY the pair has compressed between 1.1154 and the 1.1161 range top, with RSI(14) near 34 off the lows.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.11678, 1.11832
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1154 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1150 17-month low
M15 close back above the 1.1168 breakdown level and the lower highs line ends the compression read
A move back through the 1.1183 ny open high puts the 38.2–50% retrace of the asian high-session low leg in play
Euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) and Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia high; tight post-low compression.
London broke below the Asian range low near 1.1198 at 08:00 UTC. The slide ran through NY hours to a 1.1154 session low, with each bounce capped by a descending trendline as French fiscal stress kept EUR heavy in holiday-thinned trade. Since 16:30 UTC, after London close, price has compressed in a 6-pip box under the 1.1161 range top, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 1.1154, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1170, 1.1183
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 range top ends the compression; the 1.1170 breakdown level and the descending trendline sit just above
Recovery above the 1.1183 NY range hi would negate the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1154 session low exposes the 1.1150 psych level
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and EUR HICP at 06:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 37 · price 1.11594
Lower highs/lower lows from Asian high; tight late-NY base above session low.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.1195, and NY extended the slide to a 1.1154 session low. A firm USD and French fiscal stress kept EUR heavy, and the lower-high trendline from 1.1210 is intact. Since then, price has stalled late in the NY session in a 1.1154–1.1161 band capped by the micro high. RSI(14) has eased back to ~37, and the 1.1150 psych area and 17-month lows sit just below.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11608, 1.11695, 1.11832
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1154 session low opens the 1.1150 psych / 1.1145 lows area
A close above the 1.1161 micro high, then back above the 1.1170 range floor (the prior London range low), would break the lower-low sequence
A move back to the 1.1183 range top would test the 38.2% fib retrace (~1.1178) and the lower-high trendline
EUR HICP Tue 06:00 UTC, early London, could materially shift this read; Fed's Waller follows at 07:45 UTC
Lower-high chain since London open, Asian range broken lower, tight late-NY box.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1184 and NY extended the lower-high chain to a session low of 1.1154. The drop tracks the digest's firm USD on Iran/oil haven demand and French fiscal stress. After London close price is holding a 1.1154–1.1161 box top with RSI(14) near 31; the 1.1170 prior low now sits overhead and the fib 38.2% at 1.1178 lies just under the Asian low.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11608, 1.11695, 1.11838
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 prior low breaks the lower-high trendline and weakens the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1154 session low exposes the 1.1150 psych area near the 17-month lows
Reclaim of the 1.1184 Asian low, near the fib 38.2% at 1.1178, would undo the London range break
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London; NY broke the 1.1170 shelf, now basing above 1.1154.
EUR/USD gave up the Asian bounce to 1.1217 and sold off from the 1.1210 area through London. NY then broke the 1.1170 broken shelf to a 1.1154 session low as the USD bid and French fiscal strain weighed on EUR. After London close price is compressing just above the low, with RSI(14) near 29 and the 1.1179 lower high capping the descending trendline.
Support: 1.1154, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1168, 1.1179
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1168 broken shelf would signal the NY breakdown is stalling
Reclaim of the 1.1179 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1154 session low exposes the 1.1150 round number and the 1.1145 support flagged in the digest
Fib 50% of the London-NY drop sits near 1.1182 and lines up with the lower-high cluster
Euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% y/y) could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, extended into late session · RSI 29 · price 1.11583
Lower highs since 06:30 UTC; midday range broken lower.
Asia peaked near 1.1217, then the London drop broke the Asian range low at 1.1198 and built a lower-high chain. The 1.1170–1.1183 midday range gave way at 15:15 UTC, with a 1.1154 session low printed as USD stayed bid on Middle East tension and French fiscal strain; price is holding just above that low under a descending trendline, RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11608, 1.11695, 1.11832
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1170 breakdown level and the descending trendline returns price to the midday range, with the 1.1183 range top above
Failure to hold the 1.1154 session low exposes the 1.1150 round number and 1.1145
Rejection below the 1.1161 minor high keeps the lower-high chain intact
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in holiday-thin US liquidity, and EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3%), could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into late NY · RSI 28 · price 1.11584
Lower-high/lower-low chain since London broke the Asian range low.
London broke the 1.1198 Asian low and NY extended the lower-high/lower-low chain off the 1.1217 Asian high to a 1.1155 session low. The move came as USD turned bid on Middle East tensions while French fiscal strain weighed on EUR. RSI(14) sits near 28 after London close in holiday-thinned trade, with the 1.1168 breakdown level now overhead.
Support: 1.11549, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11678, 1.1179, 1.11976
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1179 lower high (38.2% fib, lower-highs trendline) breaks the LH/LL chain.
Failure to hold the 1.1155 session low and 1.1150 round number extends the leg toward 1.1145.
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating in NY session · RSI 23 · price 1.11572
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
London broke the 1.1198 Asian low at the 08:00 UTC open. NY has extended the leg through the 1.1170 prior low to a 1.1155 session low, with the USD firm and French fiscal stress weighing on EUR. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched, but lower highs under the 1.1183 midday high and the descending trendline remain intact.
Support: 1.11549, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11695, 1.11832, 1.11976
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1170 prior low would ease the breakdown read; reclaiming the 1.1183 midday high and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 1.1155 session low brings the 1.1150 round number and 1.1145 support into play
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt the USD leg in thin holiday liquidity
38.2% retrace of the London selloff sits near 1.1176, area to watch for rejection on any bounce
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into late NY · RSI 28 · price 1.11599
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; midday range floor broken.
Asia filled the weekend gap up to 1.1217, then London broke the 1.1184 Asian low. NY broke the 1.1170 midday range floor and printed a 1.1160 session low on a chain of lower highs, RSI(14) near 28. The move tracks a firm USD and renewed French fiscal stress in holiday-thinned liquidity, with the 1.1150 round number just below.
Support: 1.11599, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.11838
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1170 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Close above the NY lower highs trendline and the 1.1184 Asian low invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1150 round number extends the lower-low chain from the session low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Tuesday's 06:00 UTC HICP could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain from Asian high, Asian range broken lower.
EURUSD has bled steadily from the 1.1217 Asian high, which came on the energy-ceasefire headline. London broke the 1.1184 Asian low, and NY has printed a fresh session low at 1.1168 under a firm USD and French fiscal stress. Every bounce has stalled below the prior lower high, with the latest at 1.1179. RSI(14) sits near 35, not stretched, and thin US-holiday liquidity is keeping ranges tight.
Support: 1.11678, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1179, 1.11838, 1.12167
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1179 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1184 Asian low turns the London breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1168 session low extends the chain toward the 1.1150 prior low
A recovery through the 50% retrace of the Asian high to session low leg, near 1.1192, would neutralise the downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and EUR HICP at 06:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open; NY compressing 1.1170–1.1183.
After a weekend gap lower, Asia rallied to an Asian high of 1.1217 on the energy-ceasefire headline. London then broke the Asian range low near 1.1190 (london break) as French stress and a firm USD weighed, printing a fresh session low at 1.1170. NY is chopping between that low and the 1.1183 lower high on thin holiday liquidity, with RSI(14) near 41 and no oversold extreme.
Support: 1.11695, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11832, 1.1190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1183 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.1170 session low exposes the 1.1150 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.1190 london break level, near the 50% fib of the Asian high to session low, negates the downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
EUR HICP Tue 06:00 UTC is the next major EUR catalyst
Monday's weekend gap filled into an Asia high at 1.1217. London then broke the Asian range and the 1.1200 round number, with the USD bid and French political stress weighing on EUR. Early NY hours swept the 1.1173 prior low to a fresh session low at 1.1170, and price is compressing beneath a 1.1181 lower high and the 1.1183 swing high, with RSI(14) near 45 in holiday-thin US trade.
Support: 1.1170, 1.1173
Resistance: 1.1181, 1.1183, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1183 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1170 session low extends the London downtrend
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in holiday-thin US liquidity
Eurozone HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% y/y) could reset the intraday read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 1.1175
Lower highs since London open, tight 1.1170–1.1183 range below broken Asian low.
EUR faded from the 1.1217 Asia high as the USD turned bid in Europe on French fiscal stress. The 08:00 UTC bar marked the main leg down from about 1.1204, and London broke the Asian range low near 1.1184 by 10:00 UTC. Since then price has carved lower highs inside a 1.1170–1.1183 range range top during thin, US-holiday NY hours, printing a fresh session low at 1.1170. RSI(14) sits near 45 and ATR(14) is about 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.11695, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11832, 1.11955, 1.12167
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1170 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1150 prior low
Recovery above the 1.1183 range top puts price back inside the Asian range and brings the 1.1195 breakdown level into focus, near the 50% asia high-low retrace (~1.1193)
Reclaiming the 1.1217 asia high would void the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is lower impact; HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian low; 10-pip range since 11:00 UTC.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1198 as the dollar firmed on oil and Middle East headlines. The pair fell about 37 pips to a 1.1173 session low, tested twice. The early NY session, thin on the US holiday, has held a tight 1.1173–1.1183 range below the range top, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR down to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.11727, 1.1170, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11832, 1.11905, 1.11976
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1183 range top opens a retracement toward the 38.2% of the London leg near 1.1187 and the 1.1190 london shelf
Failure to hold the 1.1173 session low extends the leg toward the 1.1170 round number, with the 1.1150 prior low below
Reclaim of the 1.1198 asian low would negate the London breakdown
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC and EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could break the current compression
Lower highs from the Asian high; Asian range broken lower at London, tight base since 11:00 UTC.
London broke the Asian range lower at 08:00 UTC through the 1.1190 london break and slid from the 1.1217 asian high to a 1.1173 session low. Renewed haven USD demand on Middle East and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire headlines took EUR/USD below the 1.1180 range floor. Since 11:00 UTC price has compressed between the session low, tested twice, and the 1.1183 range top in thin, holiday-affected NY trade.
Support: 1.11727, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11832, 1.1190, 1.12167
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1183 range top opens a retest of the 1.1190 london break, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the asian high-to-session low drop
Failure to hold the 1.1173 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1150 16m low area
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today and Eurozone HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open, now basing in a tight 10-pip box.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1198 and the Friday low at 1.1187, then extended to a 1.1173 session low as French fiscal stress and a firm USD weighed on the pair. Since then price has held a 1.1173–1.1183 box into the NY open. The session low has been tested twice, the 1.1183 swing high is capping, and US holiday liquidity is thin.
Support: 1.11727, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11832, 1.11873, 1.11976
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1183 swing high and back over the 1.1187 friday low invalidates the basing-under-pressure read and puts the 38.2% of the London drop near 1.1187 in play
Failure to hold the 1.1173 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1150 psych level
Reclaim of the 1.1198 asian low would neutralise the London range break
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt thin holiday trade
Lower highs from 1.1210; tight 1.1173–1.1183 box into NY open.
EUR/USD opened the week with a gap lower, failed to hold the Asian high at 1.1217, and London broke the Asian low with a slide from the 1.1210 lower high as French fiscal stress kept EUR heavy. The session low at 1.1173 has held twice, leaving a 10-pip box capped at 1.1183 into a thin, US-holiday NY open; RSI(14) is near 40, off the lows.
Support: 1.11727, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11832, 1.11905, 1.12098
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1173 session low extends the London leg toward the 1.1170 round number
Close above the 1.1183 box top tests the descending trendline and the 1.1190 london shelf, near the 50% fib of the London drop
Only a recovery through the 1.1210 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, selling pausing at the lows · RSI 43 · price 1.11818
Asian range low broken in London, lower highs; possible double bottom at 1.11727.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1184 and pressed to 1.11727. A retest of that double low at 12:30 UTC held, leaving the 1.11832 midday high as the double-bottom trigger, with price edging over the falling trendline into the first hour of NY. US holiday liquidity is thin and French fiscal stress keeps EUR heavy at the bottom of the 1.1180–1.1230 band. RSI(14) is neutral at 43 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 1.11727, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11832, 1.11873, 1.11895
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.11832 midday high completes the double bottom and brings the 1.11873 friday low and 1.11895 fib 38.2 into play
Failure at 1.11832 with a break of the 1.11727 double low resumes the London downtrend toward the 1.1170 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 34 · price 1.11764
Asian rally fully reversed; London lower-high chain into a 1.1173 session low.
London erased the Asian rally to 1.1217 and broke the Sunday gap-open low near 1.1184, printing a session low at 1.11727 in a clean lower-high sequence as French fiscal stress kept EUR heavy. The 12:00 UTC pop to 1.1183 was rejected at the swing high and the London downtrend line ahead of a holiday-thinned NY session.
Support: 1.11727, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11832, 1.1190, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1183 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the London downtrend line in play
Failure to hold the 1.11727 session low exposes the 1.1170 psych level
Recovery to the 1.1190 breakdown shelf, near the 38.2% fib, would neutralise the London leg; 1.1200 round number sits above
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC with US holiday liquidity; EUR HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early bounce · RSI 37 · price 1.11825
Lower highs since London open; Asian range broken lower, bounce off 1.1173.
The weekend gap filled in Asia, then London broke below the 1.1198 Asian low and extended to a 1.1173 session low as French fiscal stress kept EUR heavy in holiday-thin trade. The midday bounce reclaimed the 1.1180 round number, and price is now pressing the ema20 near 1.1185, close to the 38.2% retrace of the London drop.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11727, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1190, 1.11976
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1190 breakdown level and the 50% of the London drop fib would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1180 round number reopens the 1.1173 session low, then the 1.1150 prior low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and EZ HICP on Tue at 06:00 UTC could shift this read. Thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves.
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 27 · price 1.11754
Asian range broken lower; LH/LL chain from 1.12098 into a 1.11727 session low.
Monday opened with a ~17-pip gap below Friday's close. Asia filled it up to 1.12167, then London broke the Asian low and the Friday low at 1.11873, stepping down in lower highs to a 1.11727 session low as French fiscal strain kept EUR heavy. RSI(14) sits near 27 into late London, with price capped under the descending lower-highs line and the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-high leg near 1.1190.
Support: 1.11727, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11848, 1.11873, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.11848 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and the LH/LL chain
Loss of the 1.11727 session low exposes the 1.1170 round number
Reclaim of the 1.11873 Friday low would turn the London break into a false break
US holiday thins NY liquidity; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could shift this read
11:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 26 · price 1.11754
Asian range broken lower, lower-high chain from 1.12098.
After a weekend gap lower, Monday's Asian session peaked at the asian high, 1.12167. London then broke the asian low at 1.11976, sliced through the friday low at 1.11873 and printed a session low at 1.11727, with each bounce capped below the prior one and RSI(14) near 26. The slide came as DXY recovered on Middle East oil headlines, in thin trade with the US on holiday.
Support: 1.11727, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11873, 1.11976, 1.12167
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the friday low at 1.11873 (near fib 38.2% at 1.11895) would print the first higher high since London open
Failure to hold the session low at 1.11727 exposes the 1.1170 round number
Recovery of the asian low at 1.11976 (fib 61.8% at 1.11999) would fully reverse the London breakdown
Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC; thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate the reaction
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into round number · RSI 26 · price 1.11757
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, Asian range broken lower.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1198 and Friday's low at 1.1187. The move extended a lower-high chain to a 1.1173 session low as USD recovered on renewed Middle East tension and doubts over the energy ceasefire. RSI(14) near 26 is stretched, and price is stalling just above the 1.1170 round number ahead of a holiday-thinned NY session.
Support: 1.11727, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11848, 1.11873, 1.11976
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1185 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 1.1187 Friday low would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1173 session low exposes the 1.1170 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could shift this read
Asian low at 1.1198 caps any rebound while the lower highs trendline holds
11:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into late London · RSI 18 · price 1.11749
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; Asian range broken to the downside.
The 08:00 UTC London drop from 1.1204 started a chain of lower highs. That chain broke the Asian low at 1.1184 (the gap-down Sunday open) and the Friday low at 1.1187, printing a 1.1173 session low. RSI(14) near 18 is oversold, and the slide fits the firm-USD tone on oil-driven haven demand in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 1.11727, 1.1170, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11838, 1.11873, 1.11955
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1184 asian low and 1.1187 friday low would undercut the breakdown read
A break of the 1.1173 session low opens the path to the 1.1170 round number, then the 1.1150 supp zone flagged at 1.1145–1.1150
Failure below the 1.1196 lower high and the london lower highs trendline keeps the sequence intact; fib 38.2–50% sits at 1.1190–1.1195
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in holiday-thin liquidity, then EUR HICP Tue 06:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 08:00 UTC break, fresh session low.
London broke the Asian range at 08:00 UTC and extended the slide from the 1.1217 Asia high. Price has cut through the Sunday gap low and the Friday low to a session low at 1.1180, with RSI(14) near 24. Each bounce has been capped under the descending trendline in thin US-holiday trade, while French fiscal worries keep EUR offered.
Support: 1.11796
Resistance: 1.11845, 1.11873, 1.11955
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1184 gap low and the 1.1187 friday low would mark the first break in the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 1.1196 shelf high and the trendline would neutralise the London breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.1180 session low extends the lower-low sequence with RSI already oversold
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, extended into London · RSI 21 · price 1.11815
Lower highs since Asia, Asian range and Friday low broken.
Asia filled the weekend gap with a run to the 1.1217 Asian high. London has since unwound that move. Early London broke the 1.1195 breakdown area, and a chain of lower highs pushed price through the 1.1187 Friday low to a 1.1180 session low. RSI(14) near 21 is stretched, and French fiscal pressure is keeping EUR offered in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 1.11798, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11873, 1.11955, 1.12167
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1187 Friday low brings the 1.1195 breakdown area and the lower-highs line back into play
Failure to hold the 1.1180 session low extends the London downtrend, with the 1.1150 round number next
Stalling under the 1.1217 Asian high keeps the retracement inside the Asian high to session low fib
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, in holiday-thinned liquidity, could shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; price below Friday's low.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1198 with a 13-pip drop at 08:00 UTC. That extended a chain of lower highs from the 1.1217 Asian high down to a 1.1180 session low, with RSI(14) near 26. Price is holding just under Friday's low at 1.1187 in thin US-holiday trade, with French fiscal strain keeping EUR offered.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1187, 1.1198, 1.1217
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1187 friday low weakens the breakdown read
Reclaim of the 1.1198 asian low and the 38.2% asian high retrace near 1.1194 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 1.1180 session low exposes the 1.1150 psych level
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone in thin holiday conditions
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3%) is the next major risk for this structure
10:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 23 · price 1.1183
Asian range broken lower; lower-high/lower-low chain since 06:30 UTC.
The weekend gap down to 1.1184 filled in Asia to a 1.1217 high, then faded. London broke the asian low at 1.1198 with a 10-pip bar at 08:00 UTC and later took out the friday low at 1.1187 to a 1.1180 session low, with highs capped under the lower highs trendline. RSI(14) is near 23 and ATR about 5 pips in thin US-holiday trade, with the French fiscal overhang keeping EUR offered.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1187, 1.1194, 1.1198
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1180 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1150 psych
Recovery above the 1.1187 friday low and the fib 38.2 at 1.1194 would signal the break is stalling
M15 close back above the 1.1198 asian low reclaims the range and invalidates the breakdown read
A close above the lower highs trendline breaks the intraday sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in holiday-thin liquidity could jolt the range
Lower highs off asia high, London break of range low.
Price has made a chain of lower highs since the 1.1217 asia high. The London session broke through 1.1200 and the 1.1187 friday low, and price is now printing a session low at 1.1180, with RSI(14) near 28: stretched, not extreme. Thin holiday trade and the French fiscal overhang on EUR fit the steady offered tone.
Support: 1.11798, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11873, 1.11955, 1.12167
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1187 friday low would turn the break into a false break
A close above the 1.1196 lower high breaks the lower-high line; the 50% fib of the asia high-to-low drop sits close by near 1.1199
Acceptance below the 1.1180 session low opens the path to the 1.1150 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the USD leg in thin holiday liquidity
Lower highs from the Asian high; Asian range broken lower, price testing the gap low.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1198 in the 08:00 UTC bar. Price then extended to the Sunday gap low at 1.1184, completing a run of lower highs from the 1.1217 Asian high, with RSI(14) at 23. Thin holiday liquidity and French fiscal strain keep EUR heavy, and the UOB 1.1180 range floor sits just below.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.1210, 1.1217
What it said to watch
A hold of the 1.1184 gap low plus an M15 close back above the 1.1198 Asian low would mark the breakdown as a false break
An M15 close below the 1.1180 range floor extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 1.1210 lower high breaks the lower highs line
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read in thin holiday trade
09:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 27 · price 1.11859
Asian range broken lower in London, lower highs and lower lows.
Mid-London, EURUSD is extending lower. Price filled Sunday's weekend gap and printed a 1.1217 Asian high, then the 08:00 UTC bar broke the 1.1198 Asian low. A lower high at 1.1196 has since capped price, and it is now slipping under the 1.1187 Friday low toward the 1.1184 gap low. RSI(14) near 27 is stretched but not extreme, with French fiscal stress and pre-CPI USD firmness weighing.
Support: 1.11838, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.11873, 1.11955, 1.11976
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1184 gap low and the 1.1180 round number confirms another lower-low; 1.1145 is the next marked support
An M15 close back above the 1.1196 lower high negates the London lower-high sequence
A retrace into the 38.2% of the Asian high fib lines up with the 1.1198 Asian low
ECB Vujčić at 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; US/Japan/Canada holidays keep liquidity thin
Lower highs from Asia high, London broke below 1.1200 shelf.
After a gap-down open, Asia rallied to the 1.1217 Asia high. Supply then capped price at successive lower highs (1.1210 swing high) along the lower-highs line, and the London open bar broke the 1.1198–1.1200 round number shelf to a 1.1190 session low. Price has since compressed in a tight 1.1190–1.1196 band in holiday-thinned trade, with no follow-through and only a shallow retrace of the Asia high to London low drop.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1187, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1210, 1.1217
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number negates the range break
Loss of the 1.1190 session low exposes the 1.1187 friday low and the 1.1184 weekly open gap
Close above the 1.1210 swing high breaks the lower-highs line
ECB Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could jolt thin holiday liquidity; EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC is the bigger risk
09:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 1.11926
London broke the 1.1196–1.1200 base; basing above Friday low.
London broke the 1.1196–1.1200 base that held through Asia with a 13-pip drop to a 1.1190 London low, consistent with EUR staying heavy on French fiscal worries. Lower highs from the 1.1217 Asian high now cap price, which is basing just above the 1.1187 Friday low with RSI(14) near 36 and not stretched.
Support: 1.11898, 1.11873, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12098, 1.12167
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.1200 round number, which is also the 38.2% fib of the Asian-high-to-London-low drop, keeps the lower highs sequence intact
M15 close back above the 1.1210 London high invalidates the breakdown read, with the 1.1217 Asian high above that
A break of the 1.1187 Friday low exposes the 1.1184 Sunday open
ECB's Vujčić speaks at 10:00 UTC and US holiday liquidity is thin, so moves can be exaggerated
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 34 · price 1.11918
Lower highs from Asia high, broke below 1.1198 in London.
Asia climbed from the 1.1184 weekly open gap to a 1.1217 Asia high on energy-ceasefire relief. Price then printed lower highs, including a 1.1210 London high, before the 08:00 UTC bar broke the 1.1198 broken low and the 1.1200 pivot. The drop set a 1.1190 session low just above the 1.1187 Friday low, with RSI(14) near 34 and French fiscal worries keeping EUR heavy.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1187, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.1210, 1.1217
What it said to watch
Holding below the 1.1198 broken low keeps the range break in force; a reclaim invalidates it
Loss of the 1.1190 session low and 1.1187 Friday low exposes a fill of the 1.1184 weekly open gap
Close above the 1.1210 London high breaks the lower-high trendline from the Asia high
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.11917
Asian range broken lower in London, testing session low.
Early London broke the Asian low near 1.1198 with a 13-pip drop at 08:00 UTC, extending the lower highs from the 1.1217 Asian high. Price now sits on the session low at 1.1190, with Friday's low at 1.1187 just below, as French fiscal worries keep EUR heavy in holiday-thinned trade. RSI(14) ~31 is not yet extreme.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11873, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.11976, 1.12098, 1.12167
What it said to watch
Holding below the 1.1198 Asian low keeps the range break intact; a close back above it reads as a false break
Failure to hold 1.1187 (friday low) exposes the 1.1184 weekly open gap low
A close above the 1.1210 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could shift the read; US holiday thins NY session liquidity
08:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 29 · price 1.11906
Lower highs 1.1217 → 1.1210 → 1.1207, London range floor broken.
Early in the London session, a 13-pip bar broke the 1.1198–1.1201 broken floor that had held since late Asia. That extends the lower-high sequence from the 1.1217 Asia high under a descending trendline, in line with the digest's French fiscal-risk weight on EUR. Price sits at 1.1191 with RSI(14) near 29, just above the Friday low at 1.1187 and the Sunday gap low at 1.1184.
Support: 1.11873, 1.11838, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.11976, 1.12098, 1.12167
What it said to watch
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.1198 broken floor turns the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1187 friday low exposes the 1.1184 gap low and the 1.1180 psych level
A close above the descending trendline and the 1.1210 london high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 1.1217 asia high above
Lower highs off Asian high, lows holding near 50% fib.
Monday's gap down to the asian low at 1.1184 was filled in Asia as USD softened, with the rally capping at the asian high of 1.1217. Since then a lower-high trendline has squeezed price into early London around 1.1200–1.1210, with the 1.1198 session low holding at the 50% fib of the Asian rally. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR(14) about 4 pips in thin US-holiday liquidity.
Support: 1.11976, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12098, 1.12167
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1198 session low and the 61.8% fib at 1.1196 exposes the 1.1184 asian low
Close above the 1.1210 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 1.1217 asian high
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could break the London compression
07:47 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 38 · price 1.1202
Monday's gap down to 1.1184 filled in Asia, and the pair peaked at the 1.1217 Asian high. A string of lower highs, the latest at 1.1210, has since pressed price back to the 50% retrace near 1.1200. Early London is holding the 1.1198 swing low, below both EMAs and with RSI(14) near 38, in holiday-thinned trade with the US and Japan out after the softer-USD open.
Support: 1.1198, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1217, 1.1233
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1198 swing low breaks the flat base and exposes the 61.8% retrace, then the 1.1184 gap low
Close above the 1.1210 lower high breaks the descending-highs line and reopens the 1.1217 Asian high
Clearing the Asian high brings the 1.1233 friday high into view, near the top of UOB's 1.1180–1.1230 range
ECB Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could jolt the thin holiday tape; Fed Hammack follows at 16:50 UTC
Lower highs off the 1.1217 Asian high, base forming above the 1.1198 session low.
The weekend gap down to 1.1184 filled in early Asia on the energy-ceasefire and softer-USD tone, and the move ran to a 1.1217 Asian high before lower highs set in. The session low at 1.1198 held near the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib. London has opened inside the Asian range, capped by the 1.1210 lower high, with price sitting just under flat EMAs.
Support: 1.11976, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12098, 1.12167, 1.12326
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1210 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 1.1217 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1198 session low exposes the 1.1187 Friday low and the gap open
Friday high at 1.1233 caps the upside of UOB's 1.1180–1.1230 day range
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could shift this read; US holiday liquidity is thin into Hammack at 16:50 UTC
07:18 UTC
Flat after Asia rally, highs drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 1.12047
Tightening range 1.1198–1.1210 under a sequence of lower highs since the 1.1217 Asian high.
The weekend gap down to 1.1184 was filled in Asia on the energy-ceasefire and softer-USD tone. The rally then stalled at the 1.1217 Asian high, and early European trade set a session low at 1.1198, near the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib. Price is now pinned just under the flat EMA20/EMA50 around 1.1205, with a lower high at 1.1210 and RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 1.1198, 1.1187
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1217, 1.1230
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1210 lower high breaks the descending-highs trendline and exposes the 1.1217 Asian high, then the 1.1230 Friday high
Failure to hold the 1.1198 session low (61.8% of the Asia rally) puts the 1.1187 Friday low back in play
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could shift this read; US holiday liquidity is thin later in the day
07:02 UTC
Neutral, lower highs off the Asia high · RSI 49 · price 1.12071
Inside Asian range 1.1184–1.1217, gap filled, holding 1.1198 pre-London.
Monday's gap-down open at 1.1184 (asia low) filled in Asia on energy-ceasefire relief and a softer USD, topping at the 1.1217 asia high before fading to the 1.1198 pre-ldn low, where buyers stepped in twice near the 61.8% retrace. Into London open, price sits on the ema20 below the 1.1210 bounce high, capped by a lower-highs line and still inside the Asian range.
Support: 1.1198, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1217, 1.1233
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1210 bounce high clears the lower-highs line; the 1.1217 asia high is the Asian range top, with the 1.1233 friday high above
Failure to hold the 1.1198 pre-ldn low breaks the Asian-range higher low and exposes the 1.1184 asia low at the gap open
Vujčić at 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1217 Asian high; 1.1198 session low swept and reclaimed.
The weekend gap down to 1.1184 filled early in Asia on the softer-USD and energy-ceasefire read, but lower highs have followed the 1.1217 Asian high. Late in Asia, ahead of London open, price is pinned on EMA20/50 near 1.1206. The 1.1198 session low was swept and reclaimed, and the bounce was rejected at the fib 61.8% near 1.1210.
Support: 1.11976, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12098, 1.12167, 1.12326
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1210 fib 61.8% breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.1217 Asian high
Loss of the 1.1198 session low exposes the 1.1187 friday low and the 1.1184 gap open
A break through the Asian high leaves the 1.1233 friday high as the next cap
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC are today's event risk; HICP lands Tue 06:00 UTC
Weekend gap filled; Asian rally retraced 58%, double low at 1.1198 holding into London open.
The weekend gap down to 1.1184 filled early in the Asia session on the softer USD and energy-ceasefire relief. The Asian rally topped at the 1.1217 asian high, then a 58% pullback held the 1.1198 session low twice. Price is back above both EMAs into the London open, pressing the 1.1212 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 1.1198, 1.1187
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1217, 1.1233
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1212 lower high reopens the 1.1217 asian high, with the friday high at 1.1233 capping the 1.1180–1.1230 range
Failure to hold the 1.1198 session low voids the double-low read and exposes the friday low at 1.1187
Vujčić speaks at 10:00 UTC; Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone ahead of Tuesday's HICP
06:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high · RSI 37 · price 1.12014
Lower highs and lower lows since 01:00 UTC, pressing 1.1200 into the London open.
The Sunday gap down to 1.1184 filled early in the Asia session. Price then peaked at the 1.1217 asian high on softer USD and the energy-ceasefire relief. Since then a chain of lower highs has dragged price back to the 1.1198 session low just above the 1.1195 asian low, with RSI(14) at 37 and no oversold extreme.
Support: 1.1198, 1.1195, 1.1187
Resistance: 1.1205, 1.1211, 1.1217
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1195 asian low opens the 1.1187 friday low
Close back above the 1.1205 lower high and the asia lower highs trendline breaks the downtrend read; the 1.1211 asia shelf sits above
London open at 07:00 UTC can redefine the session range from a 3-pip ATR base
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could shift the read; Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC
Lower highs from the Asian high, holding the 1.1200 handle.
Monday opened with a ~17-pip weekend gap lower at 1.1184. Asia filled it on the softer USD and ran to the 1.1217 Asian high, then a run of lower highs pulled price back to the 1.1200 handle. The 05:15 UTC swing low at 1.1199 sits on the 50% level of the Asian rally fib, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR(14) under 3 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.1199, 1.1187
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1217, 1.1233
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1199 swing low exposes the 1.1187 friday low and the gap open
Recovery above the 1.1211 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence, with the 1.1217 asian high next
Clearing the asian high brings the 1.1233 friday high into range
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC and London open liquidity could expand ranges well beyond the ~3-pip ATR
05:47 UTC
Pullback within Asia range, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 1.1202
Weekend gap filled, then lower highs from the 1.1217 Asian high.
Asia opened with a 17-pip gap down to the 1.1184 asian low and filled it on a softer USD and lower yields, topping at the 1.1217 asian high. Since then the session has printed lower highs. The 05:15 UTC dip to the 1.1199 swing low tagged the 50% fib of the Asia rally and is now retesting 1.1200, with price below both EMAs and London open about an hour out.
Support: 1.11989, 1.11873, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12115, 1.12167, 1.1233
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1199 swing low and the asia rally fib 50% exposes the 1.1187 friday low and the 1.1184 asian low
A close above the 1.1211 lower high and the lower-high trendline reopens the 1.1217 asian high, then the 1.1233 friday high
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC, early in the London session, could shift this read on any comment about priced ECB hikes
05:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 40 · price 1.12007
Monday gap filled to 1.1217, now fading in lower highs. Price is testing the 1.1200 / 50% retrace zone..
Asia opened on a gap low at 1.1184, below Friday's 1.1202 close. The gap filled as softer US yields lifted the pair to an asian high of 1.1217, where it met rejection. Since then a falling trendline of lower highs (latest lower high 1.1212) has pushed price through the 1.1206 prior shelf and down to the 1.1200 round number, which sits at the 50% retrace of the Asian rally. The session low of 1.1199 is now being tested in late Asia, ahead of London open.
Support: 1.11989, 1.11964, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12058, 1.12115, 1.12167
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1199 session low and the 61.8% fib at 1.1196 exposes the 1.1184 gap low
Reclaim of the 1.1206 prior shelf and the falling trendline negates the lower-high sequence; the 1.1212 lower high is the next cap
Break above the 1.1217 asian high resumes the gap-fill rally
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC, during London hours, could move EUR on any pushback against priced ECB hikes
05:17 UTC
Pullback after Asia gap-fill rally · RSI 34 · price 1.12034
Lower highs and a fresh lower low off the 1.12167 asia high; price at the 38.2% fib.
Monday opened on a ~17-pip gap down to 1.11838. That gap filled by 23:00 UTC as easing US yields softened the USD, and the rally topped at the 1.12167 asia high. Since then, late Asia has printed lower highs and slipped under the 02:45 UTC low, putting price at the 38.2% asia rally fib near 1.1204, just above the 1.1200 psych level. RSI(14) is around 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11948, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12115, 1.12167
What it said to watch
Hold of 1.1200 psych keeps this a pullback inside the Asian range; a break exposes the 1.11948 swing low near the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 1.11948 swing low opens a retest of the 1.11838 gap low
M15 close above the 1.12115 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.12167 asia high back in play
London open in under 2h and ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could set the session direction
Lower highs from 1.1217 Asian high, base forming at 1.1206.
Monday opened with a ~17-pip gap below Friday's 1.1202 close. The gap filled inside the first two hours of Asia as softer US yields lifted the pair to a 1.1217 Asian high. Price has since printed lower highs and slipped below EMA20 into a tight 1.1206–1.1212 band, holding the 1.1206 intraday low twice and sitting just above the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1200, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1217, 1.1242
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1206 intraday low exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 38.2% fib
Loss of 1.1200 re-opens the Monday gap zone toward the 1.1184 Asian low
Close above the 1.1212 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and re-tests the 1.1217 Asian high
Friday high at 1.1242 marks the upper edge if the Asian high gives way
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC during London could shift the read; HICP Tue 06:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR risk
Asia session rallied off the 1.1184 gap low and filled the weekend gap, topping at the 1.1217 Asia high as USD softened on easing yields. Price has since printed lower highs and is compressing at 1.1206–1.1211, just above the swing low and below EMA20. RSI(14) sits near 43 and ATR near 3 pips, which leaves the Asian range intact into London open.
Support: 1.12058, 1.1200, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1206 swing low breaks the rising trendline from the gap low and exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 38.2% of the Asia rally at 1.1204
Close back above the 1.1217 Asia high reopens the path to the 1.1243 prior high
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Weekend gap filled, higher low inside Asian range.
The Asia session erased Monday's weekend gap lower as the USD softened on easing yields. Price reclaimed the 1.1202 Friday close and printed an Asian high at 1.1217. It has since held a swing low at 1.1206, a shallow ~33% retrace of the Asian rally fib, and is compressing near 1.1210 with RSI(14) neutral around 46, about 2.5h before London open.
Support: 1.12058, 1.12015
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1206 swing low re-exposes the 1.1202 Friday close and the gap-fill area
Break above the 1.1217 Asian high opens the path toward the 1.1243 Friday high
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC during London hours could shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is a NY-session risk to the read
Monday opened about 17 pips below Friday's close at 1.1202. That gap filled during the Asia session as the USD softened on easing yields, and price ran to a 1.1217 session high. The pullback held 1.1206, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg and on rising support, and price is now consolidating at 1.1210 late in Asian hours with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 1.12058, 1.12015, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1217 session high breaks the Asian range and opens Friday's 1.1243 prior high
Loss of the 1.1206 pullback low and rising support exposes the 1.1202 fri close, with the 1.1184 gap low below
London open in under 3h and ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could expand the 1.1184–1.1217 Asian range
04:02 UTC
Asia recovery from gap low, now pausing · RSI 47 · price 1.12092
Lower highs below the 1.1217 asian high, pullback holding above fri close.
The weekly open gapped about 17 pips lower to a 1.1184 gap low. Price then filled through the 1.1202 fri close as USD softened in Asia and topped at the 1.1217 asian high. Since 01:00 UTC it has printed a lower high at 1.1215 and a pullback low at 1.1206, holding between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.12058, 1.12015, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12145, 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.1206 pullback low exposes the fri close at 1.1202 and the 38.2% fib
A close above the 1.1215 lower high and the 1.1217 asian high reopens the path toward the 1.1243 friday high
London open in roughly 3h is likely to set direction out of the Asian range
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could shift the read
03:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, pausing below Asia high · RSI 51 · price 1.12108
Gap-down open filled, lower-high consolidation above higher lows.
Asia opened with a 17-pip gap down to the 1.1184 Asia low. The gap was filled through the 1.1202 Friday close as USD stayed soft after Friday's Michigan sentiment miss, and price extended to a 1.1217 Asia high. Since then price has held a 1.1206 swing low above the 38.2% fib and rising support, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.12058, 1.12015, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1217 asia high opens the path toward the 1.1243 friday high
Close below the 1.1206 swing low and rising support exposes the 1.1202 friday close; losing that puts the 1.1184 asia low back in focus
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC, during London hours, could shift this read; EUR HICP Tue 06:00 UTC is the larger event risk
Weekend gap filled; Asian range 1.1184–1.1217, pullback holding above 1.1206.
Monday's 17-pip weekend gap down to the 1.1184 gap low filled early in the Asia session as USD softened after Friday's Michigan sentiment miss. The rally stalled at the 1.1217 Asian high and price has eased to a pullback low at 1.1206, near the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib. RSI(14) sits neutral at 48, with price just above EMA20 and ATR(14) at about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.12058, 1.1200, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1206 pullback low exposes the 1.1200 round number, which is also Friday's close
Failure to hold 1.1200 reopens the 1.1184 gap low
Clearance of the 1.1217 Asian high opens the path toward the 1.1243 friday high
London open and ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could break the Asian range either way
03:17 UTC
Asia rally fading into a pullback · RSI 48 · price 1.12067
Lower high under 1.1217 session high, swing low at 1.1210 broken.
The weekend gap down to the 1.1184 gap low was filled in the Asia session as the USD softened on Friday's weak Michigan sentiment, but the move met rejection at the 1.1217 session high. A sequence of lower highs and a break of the 1.1210 swing low (now a broken low) have price drifting toward the 1.1204 fib 38.2 retracement of the Asia rally. RSI(14) is neutral at 48 and ATR(14) is a thin 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1195, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1217, 1.1243
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1204 fib 38.2 exposes the 1.1195 swing low, then the 1.1184 gap low
Recapture of the 1.1210 broken low and an M15 close above the 1.1217 session high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens Friday's prior high at 1.1243
London open and ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could expand the 3.4-pip ATR range
Weekend gap filled; lower high under Asian high, pullback in progress.
Monday's Asia session opened with a 17-pip gap down to the 1.1184 asian low. The gap filled as USD softened on Friday's weak consumer sentiment, and price peaked at the 1.1217 asian high. Rejection there and a lower high at 1.1215 have price drifting back to the 1.1206 pullback low, just under EMA20. RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 1.12058, 1.12015, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1206 pullback low exposes the friday close at 1.1202, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally
Close back above the 1.1217 asian high resumes the recovery toward the 1.1242 friday high
Loss of the 1.1184 asian low reopens the gap and invalidates the recovery read
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could reshape the London open session range
Lower highs off the 1.1217 session high, 1.1210 micro floor giving way.
The weekend gap down to the 1.1184 gap low filled early in the Asia session on a softer USD, and the advance ran to a 1.1217 session high before lower highs set in. Price is now slipping through the 1.1210 floor and sitting on the EMA20, with the fib 38.2 retracement of the Asian leg at 1.1204 next below.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1195, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1217, 1.1243
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1210 broken floor neutralises the lower-highs trendline
Close above the 1.1217 session high resumes the Asian HH/HL chain and opens the 1.1243 friday high
Failure to hold the 1.1204 fib 38.2 exposes the 1.1195 pullback low near the 61.8% retracement, then the 1.1184 gap low
London open and ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC are likely to set the session range; HICP Tue 06:00 UTC is the bigger risk
02:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend after gap fill, stalling below session high · RSI 66 · price 1.12129
Higher lows from the Asia gap low, tight consolidation under 1.1217.
Asia opened with a ~17-pip gap down to 1.1184. That gap was filled through the Friday close at 1.1204 within three hours as USD softness carried over from Friday's weak Michigan sentiment. Higher lows lifted price to a session high at 1.1217, and it is now compressing above the 1.1210 pullback low with RSI(14) near 66. The Friday Asia base around 1.1226 is the next overhead reference.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1204, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.1226, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1210 pullback low exposes the fri close at 1.1204, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the gap-fill rally
Close above the 1.1217 session high opens the fri asia base at 1.1226, then the fri high at 1.1243
Loss of 1.1204 puts the fri low at 1.1187 back in focus and negates the gap-fill structure
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC during London could shift this read; HICP Tue 06:00 UTC is the larger event risk
02:17 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the weekend gap, momentum cooling · RSI 66 · price 1.12121
Asia higher-low chain after gap fill; minor pullback below the 1.1217 session high.
Asia opened with a roughly 17-pip gap below Friday's 1.1202 close, at the 1.1184 asian low. The gap fill near 1.1200 came within two hours as USD softened on Friday's sentiment miss, and the Asia rally extended to a 1.1217 session high. RSI(14) is cooling from the mid-70s, with price holding just above the 1.1210 pullback low.
Support: 1.12101, 1.12003, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12234, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1210 pullback low exposes the 1.1200 gap fill, which sits at the 50% retracement of the Asia rally
Loss of the 1.1184 asian low would fully reverse the gap-fill move
Close above the 1.1217 session high opens the 1.1224 friday shelf, then the 1.1243 friday high
London open and ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could reset the Asian range; euro area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC is the larger event risk
Early Asia: the Sunday open gapped down to the 1.1184 gap low, filled back to the 1.1202 fri close within two hours and printed a session high at 1.1217, with USD softer after Friday's Michigan miss. Price is now holding the rising trendline and the 1.1210 pullback low, sitting on the 50% retrace of Friday's 1.1243–1.1184 drop.
Support: 1.12101, 1.12015, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12201, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1210 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.1202 fri close
Acceptance above the 1.1217 session high and the 61.8% fib at 1.1220 opens the 1.1243 fri high
A return below the 1.1184 gap low would void the gap-fill recovery
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC are the next headline risk; EZ HICP lands Tue 06:00 UTC
01:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 62 · price 1.12104
Asia gap-down filled; higher highs and higher lows off 1.1184, now retracing.
The Asia session opened with a 17-pip gap down to the 1.1184 gap low. That gap filled above the 1.1202 friday close within the first few hours, and price extended to a 1.1217 session high in a higher-high/higher-low chain, unwinding part of Friday's USD-driven fade. Price is now easing to 1.1210 with RSI(14) near 62, and the 38.2% fib at 1.1204 sits just above the friday close as the first support of the pullback.
Support: 1.1204, 1.12015, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.1223, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1204 (38.2% fib) and the friday close at 1.1202 opens a deeper retracement toward the 61.8% at 1.1196
Break above the 1.1217 session high brings the 1.1223 prior range, Friday's breakdown area, back into view, then the 1.1243 friday high
Failure to hold the 1.1184 gap low would void the Asia recovery
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC during London hours could shift EUR tone; EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
01:32 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the Sunday gap, momentum stalling · RSI 71 · price 1.1213
Asia HH/HL chain after weekend gap fill; pausing under the session high.
The Sunday open gapped about 17 pips below Friday's 1.1202 close to a sunday low at 1.1184. Asia session has since built a HH/HL chain along a rising line, filling the gap and printing a session high at 1.1217. RSI(14) near 71 shows the push is cooling, while thin weekend news leaves Friday's USD-led slide from the 1.1243 prior high still framing the tape.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1202, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1233, 1.1243
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1210 swing low breaks the Asia rising line and exposes the gap fill at 1.1202, which sits at the 38.2–50% zone of the Asia rally fib
M15 close above the 1.1217 session high opens Friday's london high at 1.1233, then the 1.1243 prior high
Loss of 1.1202 puts the 1.1184 sunday low back in play and undoes the gap-fill read
London open (07:00 UTC) and ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC could materially shift the Asian range read
01:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the gap low, RSI hot · RSI 71 · price 1.12162
HH/HL chain through Asia, now testing Friday's breakdown zone.
The week opened with a ~17-pip gap down to the 1.1184 weekly open, filled at the 1.1202 gap fill (Friday's close) by 23:15 UTC. Early Asia session has since built a HH/HL chain along a rising trendline, past the 1.1210 break level, into the 1.1216–1.1222 breakdown zone from Friday's London session. RSI(14) is near 71 and ATR is ~4 pips in thin weekend-carryover flow, with no fresh EUR or USD news since Friday's USD-led fade.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1202, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1233, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 breakdown zone opens the 1.1233 swing high, then the 1.1243 friday high
Loss of the 1.1210 break level and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1202 gap fill near the 38.2% fib
Failure back below the 1.1184 weekly open would erase the Asian advance
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC during London hours could shift this read
01:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Asia, gap filled · RSI 72 · price 1.12153
Monday gap-down open at 1.1184, then HH/HL chain through Asia; price at the 50% fib of Friday's drop.
Monday opened with a gap down to 1.1184, below Friday's 1.1202 close. A steady HH/HL climb through the Asia session has filled the gap and printed a session high at 1.1215, the 50% retracement of Friday's 1.1243–1.1187 drop. RSI(14) near 72 in thin early-Asia trade, with the Friday shelf at 1.1223 overhead.
Support: 1.12097, 1.12015, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12234, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1210 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low trendline
Loss of the 1.1202 gap fill level reopens the 1.1184 Monday low
Close above the 1.1223 Friday shelf clears the 61.8% of the Friday drop fib and opens the 1.1243 Friday high
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read once London and NY liquidity returns
00:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Monday gap low, RSI near 68 · RSI 68 · price 1.1214
Asia session HH/HL chain; weekend gap filled; pressing Friday London pivots.
Monday's Asia session gapped down to a 1.1184 gap low, carrying Friday's firm-USD tone, then filled the gap and cleared the 1.1204 fri ny high to a 1.1215 session high. The HH/HL chain is intact above the 1.1195 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 68, warm but not stretched. The Asian range is still developing.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1195, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.1223, 1.1242
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1204 fri ny high, also the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib, would put the gap-fill move in doubt
Failure to hold the 1.1195 pullback low breaks the HH/HL chain and the Asia trendline
Acceptance above the 1.1215 session high and 1.1223 london swing exposes the 1.1242 friday high, near the 1.1235-1.1240 cap flagged in the digest
London open plus ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could reshape the session range
00:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Monday gap low, RSI warm · RSI 71 · price 1.12119
Higher-low chain in early Asia session; weekend gap filled.
Asia session opened with a 17-pip gap down to the 1.1184 gap low. Price has since filled it, with higher lows at the 1.1195 pullback low and the 1.1203 higher low into a 1.1214 session high, RSI(14) near 71. Overhead sits the 1.1223 breakdown zone from Friday's London selloff, after the USD rebound faded Friday's European push toward the 1.1243 Friday high.
Support: 1.12033, 1.11948, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12141, 1.1223, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1203 higher low breaks the rising support line and the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 1.1195 pullback low puts the gap low at 1.1184 back in play
Acceptance above the 1.1214 session high opens the 1.1223 breakdown zone, then the 1.1243 Friday high
Holds above the 38.2% of the gap rally (~1.1203) keep the gap-fill leg intact
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC during London could shift the EUR leg; thin Asia session ranges until then
00:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since gap · RSI 59 · price 1.12108
Weekend gap filled, HH/HL chain in early Asia session.
The Asia session opened with a 17-pip gap below the 1.1202 Friday close and has since filled it, printing a session high at 1.1211 off a higher-low chain from the 1.1184 gap low and 1.1195. Price sits between the 38.2% and fib 50% retracement of Friday's 1.1243–1.1187 slide. RSI(14) is near 59, a recovery against a heavy EUR backdrop of French fiscal stress and a hawkish Fed.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1195, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1215, 1.1223
What it said to watch
A close above 1.1215 (fib 50%, Friday's 11:00 UTC pivot) exposes the 1.1223 lower high from London
Slipping back below the 1.1202 fri close turns the gap fill into a false break and puts the 1.1195 higher low back in focus
Loss of 1.1195 breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, reopening the 1.1184 gap low
Thin Asian liquidity; ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC during London could shift this read
The Sunday open gapped about 17 pips below Friday's 1.12015 close to a 1.11838 gap low, after Friday's USD rebound on hawkish Fed talk. The Asia session has since filled the gap and is pressing the 1.12052 session high, with rising lows at 1.11838 and 1.11948 framing the bounce. Price is roughly a third back into Friday's decline from the 1.12425 friday high, and RSI(14) in the mid-50s shows no stretch.
Support: 1.12015, 1.11948, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12052, 1.12144, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.12015 gap fill puts the 1.11948 swing low back in focus
Break of the 1.11948 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.11838 gap low
Close above the 1.12052 session high opens the 1.12144 swing high, then the 1.12425 friday high
Thin Asia liquidity, then ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, could shift this read