EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 46 · price 1.11979
Higher lows from London; lower high at 1.1203 caps late-NY drift.
London cleared the Asian range (1.1154–1.1183) as the USD softened into CPI, and the move printed a day high of 1.1204 in the first hour of NY. A second push stalled at 1.1203 for a marginal lower high. Price is now drifting in thin trade above the late-NY low at 1.1194, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and the NY lows at 1.1185 lining up with the 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC early in the Asia session, then US CPI at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1204 day high opens UOB's 1.1220 resistance
Loss of the 1.1185 NY lows (38.2% fib) breaks the rising lows line from the 1.1175 London low
Tight range under a twice-capped day high, higher lows intact from the London low.
Early Asia is drifting in a 1.1194–1.1200 band after NY capped twice at 1.1203–1.1204 (day high). The higher-low chain from the London low at 1.1175 and the NY low at 1.1185 still holds. The pullback from the late-NY high sits just above the 38.2% fib, RSI(14) is neutral near 46, and the bounce off 17-month lows reflects a softer USD into Wednesday's US CPI.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1204
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 day high breaks the two-top cap and the round number at 1.1200
Failure to hold the 1.1194 rollover low (50% fib) exposes the 1.1185 NY low, with the 1.1175 London low below that
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC could shift this read, and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a range break
Higher lows since Asia, twin highs at 1.1203–1.1204, early-Asia compression.
Monday's rebound from 1.1154 built higher lows through London and NY as USD eased into CPI. Price stalled twice at the 1.1203–1.1204 session high, and the NY low at 1.1185 sits on the 38.2% fib of the day's rally. Early Asia is compressing at 1.1194–1.1200 on the higher-low line, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR down to roughly 2–3 pips.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC (05:10 broker) is the first catalyst that could break the 1.1194–1.1200 compression
An M15 close above the 1.1204 session high reopens the 1.1220 res flagged in the digest
Loss of the 1.1194 late low and the higher-low line exposes the ny low at 1.1185 (38.2% fib); a break there turns the twin highs into a double top
Failure at the 1.1175 london low erases the day's higher-low sequence
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for the structure
Higher lows intact; tight 1.1194–1.1203 range under session high.
A softer USD into CPI lifted EUR/USD off the 1.1154 Asian low through London and NY, printing higher lows at 1.1175 (london low) and 1.1185 (swing low, near the 38.2% fib). Rejection at the 1.1203–1.1204 session high came twice, and price is now drifting just under the 1.1200 round number in thin post-NY trade, sitting on the rising trendline above the 1.1194 rollover low.
Support: 1.1194, 1.11849, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1204 session high opens the 1.1220 uob resist level
Failure to hold the 1.1194 rollover low puts the 1.1185 swing low and the higher-low chain in play
A break below the 1.1175 london low and the 50% fib undoes the day's advance
Lagarde speaks at 02:10 UTC (~3h) and US CPI is due 12:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalled below day high · RSI 45 · price 1.11974
Higher lows from 1.1154; 1.1185–1.1204 range since NY.
EUR/USD climbed from the 1.1154 Asian low through London to a 1.1204 day high in NY as USD eased into CPI. Since then it has held a 1.1185–1.1204 range, with the ny low sitting on the 38.2% fib and the rollover low at 1.1194 tagging the higher-low line; early Asia is quiet, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1185 ny low breaks the higher-low line and the 38.2% fib, exposing the 1.1175 london low
M15 close above the 1.1204 day high opens next resistance at 1.1220
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC, and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM), could materially shift this read
1.1185–1.1204 range since the NY open; two rejections at the day high, rising lows intact.
EUR/USD climbed from the 1.1154 Asian low on a softer USD. The move stalled at the 1.1204 day high at the NY open, and a second push after 18:00 UTC was rejected at 1.1203. The range floor near 1.1185, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the Asia-to-NY rally, held four times. Post-NY trade is thin and drifting just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1194 late low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.1185 range floor, with the 1.1175 London low below that
A break of the 1.1204 day high invalidates the range read and opens 1.1220 resistance
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; tight post-NY consolidation 1.1194–1.1200.
London broke above the Asian range (1.1154–1.1183) as the USD eased into CPI. NY extended to a session high at 1.1204, and a late-NY retest at 1.1203 met rejection. Price is now coiling at 1.1194–1.1200 in thin trade after NY close, sitting on rising support from the London and NY lows.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1204
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1194 late low and rising support exposes the 1.1185 NY low / 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 1.1185 NY low breaks the HL chain; 1.1175 london low next
Close above the 1.1200 round number and 1.1204 session high resumes the asia-ny leg
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.11967
Higher lows from 1.1154 Asian low; double test of 1.1204 session high capping.
EUR/USD climbed from the 1.1154 Asian low through London and NY as the USD eased into CPI. The 1.1204 session high was rejected twice, at 13:30 and 18:45 UTC. Late NY has drifted to 1.1197, just under EMA20 and the 1.1200 round number, sitting on the higher-lows trendline with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR compressed to ~3 pips.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1204
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1194 late low and the higher-lows trendline shifts focus to the 1.1185 range floor (38.2% of the day leg)
M15 close below the 1.1185 range floor ends the higher-low sequence
Close above the 1.1204 session high clears the double rejection; digest flags 1.1220 as the next resistance
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC in Asia and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, flat after London · RSI 46 · price 1.11974
1.1185–1.1204 range above the broken Asian range high.
EUR/USD cleared the Asian range high at 1.1180 at London open on a softer USD. It has since held a 1.1185–1.1204 range, with sellers capping two NY pushes at the 1.1204 session high. Post-NY trade is thin around 1.1197, sitting just above the 1.1194 late low and the 50% fib of the late-NY leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 session high opens the 1.1220 res flagged in the digest
Loss of the 1.1185 swing low and the rising lows trendline breaks the range lower, exposing the 1.1175 london low
Lagarde speaks at 02:10 UTC in the Asia session and could jolt a thin range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~15h) is the main catalyst for a range break
Higher lows intact, tight consolidation under session high.
Higher lows ran from the 1.1154 Asian low through the 1.1175 london low and 1.1185 ny swing low as the USD softened, while the 1.1204 session high capped two NY pushes. Price is compressing around 1.1200 after NY close, holding the late ny low at 1.1196, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.11963, 1.1185, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 session high breaks the twin cap and opens the 1.1220 resistance
Loss of the 1.1196 late ny low and the rising-lows trendline shifts the read to a deeper pullback
A break of the 1.1185 ny swing low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib, ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1175 london low
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC could break the Asian range; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to this structure
21:16 UTC
Uptrend off the 1.1153 low, stalling under day high · RSI 56 · price 1.11994
Higher lows, late-NY compression below 1.1204.
London broke the Asian range top near 1.1180, and NY extended to a 1.1204 day high as USD eased ahead of CPI. Price was rejected twice below 1.1205 and is now compressing at 1.1196–1.1203 in late-NY trade. The ny swing low at 1.1185 sits on the 38.2% fib of the day's rally and held twice.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1196 late-ny low exposes 1.1185 ny swing low / 38.2% fib
Loss of 1.1185 breaks the higher-low trendline and opens the 1.1175 london low
Clean break of the 1.1204 day high puts the 1.1220 res in view
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC during the Asia session could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
HH/HL chain off the 1.1151 Asia low; late-NY lower high at 1.1203, holding above NY low.
EUR/USD extended its bounce from 1.1151 on a softer USD into CPI. London broke the Asian range high near 1.1183 and the NY open printed the 1.1204 session high, while the 1.1185 NY low, near the 61.8% fib, held on three tests. A late-NY retest stalled at 1.1203, and price is now drifting just above the fib 38.2 at 1.1193, below EMA20 in thin post-close trade, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.1193, 1.11849, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC in the Asia session, then US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
Loss of the 1.1185 NY low and the rising lows line breaks the HL chain and exposes the 1.1175 london low
M15 close above the 1.1204 session high reopens the 1.1220 resistance
20:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled into a range · RSI 54 · price 1.1197
Higher lows from 1.1151, now ranging 1.1185–1.1204 below the session high.
EUR/USD climbed from Monday's 1.1151 low through the Asian range high. London held a 1.1175 london low before NY printed a 1.1204 session high as USD eased ahead of CPI. Since then price has held a 1.1185–1.1204 range, with a second rejection at 1.1203 late in NY. Price is drifting mid-range after NY close.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 session high opens the 1.1220 resistance flagged in the digest
Loss of the 1.1185 range low, near the 38.2% fib, exposes the 1.1175 london low
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC during Asia could break the range; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst
Asian range broken higher at London; 1.1185–1.1204 range through NY with rising lows.
EUR/USD broke the Asian range top near 1.1183 at London open as the USD softened into Wednesday's CPI. It set the session high at 1.1204 in early NY. Since then it has held a 1.1185–1.1204 range, with the NY floor lining up with the 38.2% fib of the Asia-NY leg, and late-NY rising lows have pinned price just under the session high.
Support: 1.11965, 1.1185, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 session high opens 1.1220 macro resistance
Break of the 1.1197 late low and the rising-lows trendline returns focus to the 1.1185 NY floor
Loss of the 1.1185 NY floor exposes the 1.1175 London low and the 50% fib near 1.1179
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY range 1.1185–1.1204, double top at the high, rising lows intact.
The Asia rally off 1.1154 extended at the London open as USD eased into Wednesday's CPI, but NY capped twice at 1.1204 (13:30 and 18:30 UTC). That left a double top over a 1.1185–1.1204 range. Price is drifting just below 1.1200 after the NY close with RSI(14) near 57, and the 1.1185 NY low lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asia-NY rally.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 double top reopens the 1.1220 uob res level flagged in the digest
Break of the 1.1185 NY low completes the double top and exposes the 1.1175 london low, which anchors the rising lows trendline
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC in Asia hours, then US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wed, can reset the range
20:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 59 · price 1.11983
Higher lows into flat 1.1203–1.1204 cap, late-NY compression.
London broke the 1.1183 Asian range high and NY printed a 1.1204 session high as USD eased into CPI, with the pullback holding the 1.1175 london low. Since then, higher lows along the rising trendline, including the 1.1185 ny lows, have pressed price into a flat cap. Late NY is idling just above the 1.1196 minor low, RSI(14) ~59.
Support: 1.11959, 1.1185, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 session high breaks the cap; 1.1220 resistance sits next
Break of the 1.1196 minor low brings the rising trendline into play
Close below the rising trendline and the 1.1185 ny lows ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.1175 london low
Lagarde Wed 02:10 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under day high · RSI 58 · price 1.11993
Higher lows since London; twin highs at 1.1203–1.1204.
London broke above the Asian range high near 1.1183, and NY tagged a 1.1204 day high before a sharp rejection to 1.1185, the fib 61.8 of the 1.1175–1.1204 leg. A late-NY push back to 1.1203 stalled just under the day high on a softer USD into Wed CPI, with the 1.1196 pullback low now under price and RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 1.11959, 1.11879, 1.11849
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 day high opens 1.1220 res, the level flagged as capping the downtrend
Loss of the 1.1196 pullback low exposes the 1.1188 ny low; a break of the fib 61.8 at 1.1185 would complete a double top at the highs
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 59 · price 1.12002
Higher lows since Asia, NY capped in 1.1185–1.1204 range.
EURUSD climbed from the 1.1153 Asian low as the USD slipped on lower yields and oil. The pair broke out of the Asian range at London open, then the NY session printed a 1.1204 session high before capping into a 1.1185–1.1204 range. In late NY the pair is retesting the session high with RSI(14) near 59, and the 1.1188 higher low keeps the rising trendline and the 61.8% fib hold at the range low intact.
Support: 1.11879, 1.1185, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 session high breaks the NY range and opens 1.1220 res, the digest's short-covering level
Failure to hold the 1.1188 higher low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 1.1185 range low in play
A close below the 1.1185 range low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.1175 london low
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC in the Asia session could shift the read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a break of either range edge
19:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, late NY retest of highs · RSI 64 · price 1.12014
Higher lows since the 09:45 UTC London pullback; NY range 1.1185–1.1204 being tested from below.
London cleared the Asian range (1.1153–1.1183) as a softer USD on easing yields and oil lifted the pair. NY set the 1.1204 session high, then held a 1.1185 range floor near the 61.8% of the London-NY leg. Late NY is pressing the session high again above the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) near 64 and higher lows along the rising lows line.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1185, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 session high opens 1.1220 res, the level the digest flags as invalidating the short-term downtrend
Loss of the 1.1200 round number and the rising lows line returns price to the 1.1185 range floor
Break below the 1.1175 london low negates the intraday higher-low sequence
Lagarde speaks 02:10 UTC in the Asia session; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range high; NY formed a range under the session high, now retesting it late NY.
London cleared the Asian range top near 1.1178. NY printed a session high at 1.1204, then held a 1.1185–1.1197 range as the USD eased on lower yields and oil. Late NY is pressing back into the session high with price just above the 1.1200 psych level; higher lows from the 1.1175 London low remain intact and RSI(14) sits near 63.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 session high extends the higher-high chain toward 1.1220 resistance
Loss of the 1.1200 psych level returns price to the NY range
Break below the 1.1185 NY base and the higher lows trendline invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Lagarde speaks 02:10 UTC during Asia; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for this read
18:46 UTC
Uptrend, retesting session high late NY · RSI 59 · price 1.11994
Higher lows since Asia; NY range 1.1185–1.1204 with price pressing the top.
London broke above the Asian range of 1.1154–1.1180. NY then extended to a 1.1204 session high on the softer dollar, and the pullback held 1.1185 (ny range low), near the 61.8% of the London-NY leg. Late NY is back testing the session high with RSI(14) near 59, and rising support from the 1.1175 swing low is still intact.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1204 session high breaks the NY range and exposes 1.1220 key res
Failure back below 1.1185 ny range low breaks rising support and puts the 1.1175 swing low in play
ECB Lane (18:30 UTC, now) and Lagarde at 02:10 UTC could shift this read in a thin late-NY/Asia tape
Higher lows from Asia; 1.1185–1.1204 range since first hour of NY.
Rally from the 1.1154 Asian low broke the Asian range in London. It topped at the 1.1204 session high in the first hour of NY, and the range since has held a floor at 1.1185, the 38.2% fib, with higher lows intact. A late push after London close has reclaimed round number 1.1200 on the softer USD into US CPI, retesting the session high with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11849, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1204 session high breaks the range top; 1.1220 resistance is next
Loss of the 1.1185 range floor and the higher-lows line opens 1.1175 london low
ECB Lane (18:30 UTC) and Lagarde (02:10 UTC) could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk
Tight range 1.1185–1.1196 after NY rejection at 1.1204.
EUR/USD climbed from the 1.1154 Asian low through London to a 1.1204 NY session high as US yields eased. Price was rejected there and has compressed between the 1.1185 range low and the 1.1196 range top for over four hours. The range low sits on the 38.2% fib of the day's leg; RSI(14) is neutral near 57 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips late in NY.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1204
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1196 range top reopens the 1.1204 session high and the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1185 range low (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.1175 london low near the 50% retrace
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Lagarde Wed 02:10 UTC could break the compression
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to the intraday structure
18:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, flat in late NY · RSI 51 · price 1.11912
London broke the Asian range high; NY rejected 1.1204 and is boxed 1.1185–1.1197.
London broke the Asian range high near 1.1180. NY then extended to a 1.1204 session high on softer US yields before a rejection. Since then price has held a 1.1185–1.1197 box in late NY. The NY range low, at the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-to-NY move, has been tested three times; RSI(14) is flat near 51 and price is pinned to EMA20.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1204
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1185 ny range low exposes the 1.1175 london low
M15 close above the 1.1197 ny range top reopens the 1.1204 session high
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Lagarde at 02:10 UTC could break the late-NY box
17:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 54 · price 1.11918
HH/HL chain from Asia low, now an 11-pip range under 1.1204.
London broke above the Asian range at the open on a softer USD and lower yields. It set a higher low at 1.1175, then tagged a 1.1204 day high early in NY. After London close the pair is boxed between a 1.1185 range low and a 1.1196 range top, and three tests of that range low have held near the 61.8% retracement. Price is sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1175, 1.1154
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1196 range top puts the 1.1204 day high back in play, with UOB resistance at 1.1220 above that
Failure to hold the 1.1185 range low exposes the 1.1175 higher low; a break there ends the HH/HL chain and opens the Asian low near 1.1154
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Lagarde at 02:10 UTC could shift this read; US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
17:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling after a session-high rejection · RSI 44 · price 1.11901
Late-NY range 1.1185–1.1197 under the 1.1204 session high.
London open broke the Asian range top near 1.1180, and NY extended to a 1.1204 session high before rejection. A USD-led lift on softer yields has since stalled into a 1.1185–1.1197 range after London close. The NY lows at 1.1185 sit on the 38.2% fib of the overnight leg, and price is just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1204
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1185 ny lows (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.1175 london low and the 50% retrace near 1.1179
Close above the 1.1196 ny cap reopens the 1.1204 session high, with the digest's 1.1220 cap beyond
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Lagarde at 02:10 UTC Wed could shift this read in the Asia session
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into range · RSI 56 · price 1.11947
Higher lows intact, late-NY range 1.1185–1.1204.
The pair broke the Asian range high at the London open and extended to a 1.1204 session high in the first hour of NY as US yields eased and the USD retreated. Since then it has held a 1.1185–1.1204 range near the 61.8% fib of the London low-to-high leg, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s. Higher lows from 1.1154 and the 1.1175 London low keep the rising support line intact.
Support: 1.1185, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1185 range low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1175 London low
Acceptance above the 1.1204 session high opens the path to the 1.1220 res level
A break of the rising support line from the Asian lows would neutralise the intraday uptrend read
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Lagarde Wed 02:10 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Asian range break, then a tight range with higher lows.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1180, and the NY open extended the move to a 1.1204 session high as US yields eased. Desks read the move as dollar-led, not euro-led. Since then price has compressed between 1.1185 and 1.1204, with the range low holding three times near the 61.8% fib of the leg and rising support intact; RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1180, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1185 range low breaks rising support and exposes the 1.1180 asian high and the 1.1175 swing low
M15 close above the 1.1204 session high reopens the 1.1220 res flagged by desks
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Lagarde at 02:10 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asia; NY compressing 1.1185–1.1195 after rejection at the session high.
London open extended the Asian break above 1.1183. The dip held at the 1.1175 swing low, and NY opened with a push to a 1.1204 session high on the softer-yield USD pullback before it was rejected. Price now holds the 1.1185 NY lows, which sit near the 61.8% fib of the 1.1175–1.1204 leg, below the 1.1195 NY range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1195, 1.1204
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1185 ny lows breaks the NY range floor and exposes the 1.1175 swing low
Loss of 1.1175 and the rising-lows trendline ends the intraday HH/HL sequence
Close above the 1.1195 ny range top reopens the 1.1204 session high
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC can shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
Higher lows since the London low; NY rotating 1.1185–1.1204.
Asia lifted off 1.1154 and London pushed through the Asian range high on a softer USD, with yields and oil easing. NY tagged a 1.1204 session high, then met rejection at the 1.1200 round number. Dips since have held a 1.1185 shelf several times, in line with the 38.2% fib, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 56 late in the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.1185, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1185 shelf breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1175 london low
Acceptance above the 1.1204 session high clears the round number cap
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Lagarde Wed 02:10 UTC could shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for the next leg
HH/HL chain from 1.1151, NY ranging 1.1185–1.1204.
The steady climb off Monday's 1.1151 low, on USD softness as yields and oil eased, carried through the Asian range and London to a 1.1204 session high in the first hour of NY, then met rejection at the 1.1200 round number. NY has since held a 1.1185–1.1204 range with the ny low shelf tested five times and the rising support intact. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and price is holding the 23.6% fib of the leg.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1185 ny low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support
Loss of the 1.1175 london low puts the leg near its 50% fib retracement
Acceptance above the 1.1204 session high and 1.1197 london high reopens the 1.1220 upside res cited by UOB
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Lagarde Wed 02:10 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
15:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after NY rejection · RSI 51 · price 1.11875
HH/HL chain since Asia; NY high rejected, holding 1.1185 lows.
London broke the Asian range, with the asia high at 1.1180 as the breakout level. NY opened with a push to a 1.1204 session high on USD softness, but sellers rejected it and price has slipped back to the 61.8% fib of the 1.1175–1.1204 leg. The swing low at 1.1185 has held three times since the NY open, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and a lower high at 1.1197.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1180, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.12042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1185 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the asia high at 1.1180, then the london low at 1.1175
Reclaim of the 1.1197 lower high reopens the 1.1204 session high and the 1.1200 handle
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC could shift the read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
Higher lows from the Asian low; NY spike above 1.1200 rejected, now compressing 1.1186–1.1197.
London broke the 1.1180 Asian high, and the NY session extended to a 1.1204 session high before rejection above 1.1200. Price is now compressing between the 1.1186 range floor and the 1.1197 lower high, with the higher-low trendline from the Asian low and the 38.2% fib clustered at that floor. The bounce rests on USD softness rather than euro demand.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1180, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1204
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1186 range floor breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.1180 Asian high, then the 1.1175 swing low near the 50% fib
M15 close above the 1.1197 lower high reopens the 1.1204 session high and the 1.1200 round number
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Lagarde Wed 02:10 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger range-break risk
HH/HL chain above the Asian range; NY-open rejection at 1.1204.
Pair has climbed steadily from the 1.1154 Asian-session low as easing Treasury yields soften the USD. London broke above the Asian high at 1.1180, then the NY open printed a session high at 1.1204 before an 18-pip rejection. The 1.1186 higher low has held three times since midday, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 57.
Support: 1.1186, 1.11748, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1186 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.1175 london low near the 50% fib
Acceptance above the 1.1204 session high opens a test of 1.1220 resistance
A slip back under the 1.1180 asian high negates the range break
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 1.1151, pulling back after rejection at 1.1204 session high.
A higher-low chain from the 1.1151 low broke above the Asian range at London open. Price then held the 1.1175 London low and printed a 1.1204 session high early in the NY session, a move the digest attributes to USD softness. The high was rejected sharply at the 1.1200 round number, dropping price back onto the 1.1186 shelf/61.8% retracement, where it sits at EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.11858, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.11962, 1.12042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1186 shelf/61.8% exposes the 1.1175 London low; a break there ends the higher-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.1196 London high puts the 1.1204 session high and the 1.1200 round number back in play
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC could shift the read during the late NY session
14:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended at the session high · RSI 64 · price 1.11969
Higher highs over a flat 1.1186 floor since late London; Asian range broken above.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1180, and the first hour of NY extended to a 1.1204 session high on USD softness. The 13:30 UTC bar was rejected off that print, leaving price at 1.1197 above a 1.1186 floor tested five times since late London. RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched.
Support: 1.11862, 1.11802, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.1186 floor and trendline support breaks the higher-low chain. The 38.2% fib of the 1.1151–1.1204 leg sits at 1.1184, with the Asian high at 1.1180 below.
Acceptance above the 1.1204 session high opens the 1.1220 UOB resistance flagged in the digest.
Failure at the 1.1175 London low would retrace most of the London-NY leg, near the 61.8% fib.
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC could shift the read. US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk.
13:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 1.1200 · RSI 68 · price 1.11992
Higher highs and higher lows from the 1.1151 rollover low; London high cleared in early NY.
EURUSD has climbed 50 pips off Monday's 1.1151 low on USD softness rather than euro demand. The pair broke the Asian high at 1.1180 into London, and the London low at 1.1175 then held as a higher low. Early NY took out the 1.1196 London high and tagged 1.2013 for a session high just above the 1.1200 handle. RSI(14) is at 68, warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.11862, 1.11802, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12013, 1.1220
What it said to watch
A failure to hold above 1.1200 after the session high tag, with a slip back under the ny dip low at 1.1186, would point to a stall at the round number
A close back inside the Asian high at 1.1180 would undo the London breakout and break the rising trendline
Sustained trade above 1.1200 opens the path toward the 1.1220 res level flagged by UOB
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC, and Lagarde overnight from 02:10 UTC, could materially shift the EUR leg of this read
HH/HL chain off Monday's 17m low; Asian range broken higher at London open.
EUR/USD climbed from the 17m low at 1.1151 on a softer USD. London broke the 1.1154–1.1180 Asian range at the open, and the dip held at the london low of 1.1175, near the 50% fib of the Asia-London leg. The session high at 1.1197 was swept at 12:45 UTC and price slipped back. The hl shelf at 1.1186 has held five times into the London-NY transition, RSI(14) mid-60s.
Support: 1.11855, 1.11748, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11971, 1.1200, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1186 hl shelf breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.1175 london low (50% fib) exposes the 1.1151 17m low
Close above the 1.1200 round number opens the path to 1.1220 key res
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC could shift the read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main volatility risk beyond this session
HH/HL chain since Asia; Asian range high broken in London.
Rebound from the 1.1151 low continues on a softer USD. London broke the Asian range high near 1.1180, and the pullback held at the 1.1175 pullback low. Early NY then printed a higher low at 1.1186 and a fresh session high at 1.1197, with RSI(14) near 63 and not stretched.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1175, 1.1154
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1186 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 1.1175 pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.1154 asian low below
Acceptance above the 1.1197 session high brings key res at 1.1220 into view
Loss of rising support from the Asian low would undercut the intraday uptrend read
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 1.1151 low; lower highs capped under 1.1196.
London broke the Asian range high near 1.1178 and set the London high at 1.1196. The pullback found a swing low at 1.1175, inside the 38.2–50% zone of the overnight rally fib, as the USD-led bounce held. Into NY open price is coiling between a higher low at 1.1186 and a lower high at 1.1194.
Support: 1.11855, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.11938, 1.11962, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1196 London high opens the 1.1200 round number
Break of the 1.1186 higher low returns focus to the 1.1175 swing low and rally support
Loss of 1.1175 breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 61.8% of the overnight rally fib at 1.1168 in view
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC could shift this read; US CPI on Wednesday is the larger risk
12:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 59 · price 1.11899
Higher lows from Asian low; London high 1.1196 capping lower highs.
Price held above the 1.1150s and the Asian low at 1.1154, then London broke the Asian range high near 1.1178 on a softer USD. The move printed a 1.1196 session high, then pulled back an exact 50% to a 1.1175 swing low, which also retested the Asian high. Late-London and early-NY pushes at 1.1193–1.1194 have stalled just under the session high, with the 1.1186 intraday hl holding beneath; RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.11857, 1.11748, 1.11535
Resistance: 1.11962, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1196 session high opens the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the 1.1186 intraday hl exposes the 1.1175 swing low and rising support
Break below the 1.1175 swing low negates the higher-low sequence off the asian low
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC could shift the read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
12:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below London high · RSI 55 · price 1.11859
Higher low at 50% fib, lower high capping recovery.
EUR/USD rallied off Monday's 1.1151 low through Asia and London as the USD eased, peaking at the 1.1196 London high. The pullback held the swing low at 1.1175, the 50% retracement of that rally fib. The recovery then stalled at a lower high of 1.1193 into the London-NY transition; price is holding above the Asian high near 1.1183 with RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 1.11826, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.11934, 1.11962
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1196 London high and the 1.1200 round number breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.1183 Asian high reopens the 1.1175 swing low
Failure to hold the 1.1175 swing low breaks the higher-low structure
Higher low at 1.1175 then lower high at 1.1193 under the 1.1196 session high.
The USD-led bounce off the 1.1151 24h low carried through Asia into a 1.1196 session high at the London open. The London pullback held the 50% fib at the 1.1175 swing low. The late-London retest stalled at a 1.1193 lower high, and price is coiling just above the 1.1186 minor low into the NY open, with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 1.11858, 1.11748, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11934, 1.11962, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1196 session high reopens the 1.1200 psych level
Loss of the 1.1186 minor low and then the 1.1175 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
ECB Lane at 18:30 UTC, and US CPI tomorrow 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows into late London · RSI 59 · price 1.11911
HH/HL chain off the 1.1151 low; retesting the session high.
No narrative produced.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.11962, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1196 session high and the 1.1200 psych level extends the HH sequence
A slip back below the 1.1180 asian high, or a break of the HL trendline, puts the 1.1175 swing low in play
Failure to hold the 1.1175 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
US ADP at 12:15 UTC into the NY open, ECB Lane at 18:30 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.1191
HH/HL chain; retesting London session high.
London broke the Asian range top near 1.1177 and printed a 1.1196 London high. The pullback held the 1.1175 swing low at the 50% fib of the move from the 1.1154 asian low. Price is now back pressing the high on a softer, yield-led USD dip rather than euro demand, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1175, 1.1154
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1196 london high extends the HH chain toward the 1.1200 round number
Break below the 1.1186 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 1.1175 swing low back in focus
Loss of 1.1175 undoes the London breakout and reopens the 1.1154 asian low
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wed is the larger risk
Higher low at 1.1175 after London-open high; lower high at 1.1191 so far.
The Asia session rally from 1.1154 ran into London open and was rejected at the 1.1196 session high. The pullback held 1.1175, the London low and the 50% fib of the move. Price has rebuilt above the 1.1183 Asian high on a softer-USD bounce, with 1.1191 capping as a lower high and RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.1183, 1.11748, 1.11701
Resistance: 1.11907, 1.11962, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1196 session high exposes the 1.1200 round number
Losing the 1.1175 London low and the Asia uptrend line breaks the higher-low chain, leaving the 1.1170 swing low next
A slip back under the 1.1183 Asian high returns price to the post-London range
ADP (12:15 UTC) and ECB's Lane (18:30 UTC) could shift the read; Wednesday's US CPI remains the main USD risk
11:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher low in place · RSI 60 · price 1.11871
Asian range break, retest held; lower high at 1.1191 under session high.
London open broke the Asian range top near 1.1180 and ran to a 1.1196 session high, extending the yield-led USD dip off Monday's 1.1151 swing low. The pullback low at 1.1175 held near the 50% retrace and rising support, and price has reclaimed the 1.1183 prior high but is stalling at 1.1191, a lower high so far; RSI(14) is around 60.
Support: 1.1183, 1.1175, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1191, 1.1196, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1196 session high resumes the higher-high chain and opens a path toward UOB resistance at 1.1220
Failure to hold the 1.1183 prior high, then the 1.1175 pullback low, breaks rising support and the higher-low read
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC into the NY open, and ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC, could shift this read
11:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low, momentum flattening · RSI 53 · price 1.11859
London broke the Asian range high, pulled back 50%, now pressing a lower high.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1180 and ran to a london high at 1.1196, helped by a softer USD as yields and oil eased. The pullback held the london low at 1.1175, an exact 50% retrace of the Asia-London leg on rising support. The rebound has stalled at a lower high of 1.1189 mid-London, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.11893, 1.11962
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1189 lower high reopens the 1.1196 london high
Loss of the 1.1180 asian high puts the 1.1175 london low and rising support back in play
A break below 1.1175 voids the 50% retrace hold and the breakout read
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC) during NY hours, then ECB Lane at 18:30 UTC
London open broke the Asian high near 1.1180 and set a 1.1196 session high. Price then retraced 50% to a 1.1175 swing low, where buyers stepped back in. At 1.1188 mid-London, rising lows are intact and RSI(14) is neutral near 55; the lift is USD-led on easing yields, not EUR strength.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11748, 1.11535
Resistance: 1.11962, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1196 session high opens the path to strong res at 1.1220
Failure below the 1.1175 swing low breaks the rising lows and puts price back inside the Asian range
Loss of the asian low at 1.1154 would reassert the prior downswing
US ADP 12:15 UTC and ECB Lane 18:30 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
10:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, pausing below the session high · RSI 53 · price 1.11835
London broke the Asian high to 1.1196, then pulled back and held above 1.1175.
Asia lifted EUR/USD off the 1.1151 Monday low on broad USD softness, and London broke the 1.1178 Asian high to a 1.1196 session high. The pullback held the 1.1175 swing low, near the 50% retracement of the Asia-London leg and on rising support. Price is now sitting on the EMA20 near 1.1183, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 1.1178, 1.11748, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11911, 1.11962, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1175 swing low and rising support breaks the London higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1151 Monday low
Clearing the 1.1191 lower high and the 1.1196 session high brings the 1.1200 round number into play
Failure to hold back above the 1.1178 Asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC) in the NY session, plus ECB Lane at 18:30 UTC, could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
10:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend from 1.1151 low, stalling in London · RSI 56 · price 1.11834
Asian range broken higher; London printing lower highs off 1.1196 session high.
London open broke the 1.1180 Asian high to a 1.1196 session high, extending a USD-driven bounce off Monday's 1.1151 low as yields and oil eased. London has since faded on lower highs, and the pullback held the 1.1175 swing low near the 38.2% fib. Price is now pressing the 1.1185 lower high from above the Asian high.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1175, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1196, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1196 session high clears the lower-high sequence and brings the 1.1200 round number into play
A break of the 1.1175 swing low (50% fib at 1.1174) puts price back inside the Asian range, exposing the 1.1170 asian base
US ADP 4-week avg at 12:15 UTC ahead of NY open and ECB Lane at 18:30 UTC can shift the read; US CPI on Wed is the larger risk
10:02 UTC
London pullback after Asian-range breakout · RSI 50 · price 1.11803
Lower highs since 1.11962 session high, retesting asian high.
London broke the Asian high at 1.11826 and was rejected at a 1.11962 session high. It has since printed lower highs back into the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London leg, with dip buying at the 1.11748 London low, which sits on the 50% level. RSI(14) is flat near 50 as the USD-softness bounce stalls ahead of Wednesday's US CPI.
Support: 1.11748, 1.11701
Resistance: 1.11826, 1.11911, 1.11962
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.11826 asian high turns the London breakout into a failed break
Loss of the 1.11748 london low (50% fib) extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.11701 asia shelf
Close above the 1.11911 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 1.11962 session high
US ADP 12:15 UTC and ECB Lane 18:30 UTC can shift the read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk
09:47 UTC
Intraday rebound, fading from London high · RSI 52 · price 1.11786
Asian range broken higher at London open; lower highs since 1.1196, now retesting the Asian high.
A softer USD lifted the pair off the 1.1154 Asian low. London open broke the Asian high at 1.1178 and Monday's prior high at 1.1185, then rejection at the 1.1196 session high sent price back to retest the Asian high. That retest sits near the 50% fib of the Asia-London rally, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.11775, 1.11701, 1.11535
Resistance: 1.11848, 1.11962
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1178 asian high puts the 1.1170 swing low in play and undoes the London breakout
Reclaim of the 1.1185 prior high reopens the 1.1196 session high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) during NY hours and ECB's Lane (18:30 UTC) could shift the read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Loss of 1.1170 exposes the 1.1154 asian low and the Monday lows
Asian range breakout, now retesting the range top.
London opened with a break of the Asian high at 1.1180 and tagged a 1.1196 session high just shy of the 1.1200 round number as the USD eased. Since then the prior high at 1.1190 has capped the 08:30 bar, and the pullback is retesting 1.1180, where the 38.2% fib of the Asian low-to-session-high move held the 08:45 dip. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips, with price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1170, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1196, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close below 1.1180 (asian high / 38.2% fib) turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.1170
A close above the 1.1190 prior high and 1.1196 session high brings the 1.1200 round number back into play
A loss of 1.1170 reopens the Asian low at 1.1153
US second-tier data at 12:15 and 14:00 UTC and ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC; US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
09:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend from 1.1151, pulling back · RSI 58 · price 1.11832
London break above Asian high, now retesting it.
London open, helped by a softer USD, broke the Asian high at 1.1180 and tagged a 1.1196 session high before fading back. Price is now retesting 1.1180, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 1.1151–1.1196 leg. RSI(14) has cooled to ~58 and price sits just above EMA20.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1170, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1180 asian high turns the London break into a false break and opens the 1.1170 pullback low
A loss of 1.1170 puts the 50% fib and the 1.1151 day low back in focus
A reclaim of the 1.1196 session high exposes the 1.1200 round number
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC, with Lagarde and US CPI on Wednesday, could shift this read
Higher lows from Asian low; London breakout retesting Asian high.
Asia's bounce off the 1.1151 monday low carried into London open, where price broke the 1.1180 asian high and stalled at a 1.1196 session high, rejected just shy of the 1.1200 round number as the softer USD tone paused. Price is back retesting the asian high, which sits at the 38.2% of the Asian-low rally, with RSI(14) near 54 and price on EMA20.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1171, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.11962, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1180 asian high returns price to the Asian range and exposes the 1.1171 swing low and rally trendline
Close above the 1.1196 session high and the 1.1200 round number resumes the London breakout
Loss of the 1.1171 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 1.1151 monday low back in view
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and US CPI positioning into Wednesday could shift this read
HH/HL since Asia; London broke the Asian high, rejected at 1.1196.
London open cleared the Asian high at 1.1180 and ran to a session high of 1.1196, where it was rejected at Monday's opening level as easing yields and oil trimmed USD. Price is holding the 1.1185 pullback low with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s; in-line German HICP added nothing, and the rising-lows chain off the 1.1151 low is intact.
Support: 1.11852, 1.1180, 1.11701
Resistance: 1.11962, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1180 asian high, which is also the 38.2% fib, puts price back inside the Asian range
Loss of the 1.1170 asia pivot breaks the rising-lows trendline and the HL chain
Close above the 1.1196 session high opens the 1.1220 key res
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and ECB Lane at 18:30 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
08:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 70 · price 1.11881
Higher lows since 1.1151; London broke the Asian range high.
London open broke the Asian high at 1.1180 and extended the bounce off Monday's 1.1151 low to a 1.1196 session high, just above Monday's morning high, before a rejection. Price is easing to 1.1188 with RSI(14) near 70 as yields and oil pull back from Monday's USD spike. The 1.1180 Asian high lines up with the 38.2% fib as the first retest area.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11717, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11962, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1180 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1172 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the intraday HL chain
Clean break of the 1.1196 session high opens the 1.1200 round number
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and ECB Lane (18:30 UTC) could shift the read; US CPI Wednesday is the bigger risk
HH/HL chain from Asian low; Asian range broken at London open.
London open broke the 1.1180 asian high and the rally from the 1.1154 asian low reached a 1.1196 session high. The upper wick at that high sits just under the 1.1204 monday open, where Monday's Hammack-driven selling started. RSI(14) at ~77 is stretched. In-line German HICP added nothing, and the move fits USD easing off its highs with yields.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1170, 1.1154
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1204
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1180 asian high (38.2% of the rally) keeps the breakout intact; a return inside the Asian range exposes the 1.1170 swing low
M15 close above the 1.1196 session high and 1.1204 monday open opens the path to 1.1220 resistance
Failure to hold 1.1170 swing low (61.8% of the rally) breaks the HL chain
Fed's Waller (07:45 UTC) and ECB's Escrivá (08:05 UTC) could materially shift this read in the next hour
HH/HL chain from Asian low; London open broke above the Asian range high.
London open cleared the 1.1178 asian high to a 1.1184 session high, extending rising lows from the 1.1154 asian low. That leg is a partial rebound after Monday's Hammack-driven USD bid, and in-line German HICP added no impulse. Price is now pressing Monday's 1.1185 prior pivot with RSI(14) near 66, firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.11775, 1.11717, 1.11535
Resistance: 1.11848, 1.1190, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1178 asian high turns the London break into a false break
Loss of the 1.1172 swing low, which sits on the 38.2% of the rally fib, breaks the rising lows line
Acceptance above the 1.1185 prior pivot exposes the 1.1190 breakdown area and the 1.1200 round number
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and ECB speakers later today could materially shift this read
Monday's Hammack-driven selloff bottomed at 1.1151 near rollover. Since then the pair has built higher lows through Asia, and the pre-London push to a 1.1183 session high nudged past the Asian range top. Price now sits at the 50% retrace of that selloff, with RSI(14) at 66 and not stretched, while the 1.1172 higher low and the asia trendline underpin the move.
Support: 1.11717, 1.11535
Resistance: 1.11826, 1.11855, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.1186 opens the path toward the 1.1200 round number
Rejection at the 1.1183 session high and a slip back inside the Asian range keeps this a corrective bounce
Break of the 1.1172 higher low and the asia trendline ends the HH/HL chain, exposing the asian low at 1.1154
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and ECB speakers (Elderson, Escrivá) this morning could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Rebound off Monday low, upside stalling at 1.1180 · RSI 62 · price 1.11765
Higher lows since rollover, compressed 1.1170–1.1180 under the 50% retrace.
Monday's hawkish-Fed USD leg took EURUSD from 1.1208 to a 1.1151 monday low at rollover. Asia broke out from the 1.1159 asia base with higher lows, but stalled at the 1.1180 asia high. That level is the 50% retrace of the decline. The in-line German HICP bar at 06:00 UTC was rejected there. Price is coiling between 1.1171 and 1.1180 into the London open, with RSI(14) at 62.
Support: 1.1171, 1.1159, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1184, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1180 asia high / 50% retrace opens 1.1184 prior pivot, then the 1.1200 round number
Break of the 1.1171 higher low snaps the Asia rising support line and exposes the 1.1159 asia base and 1.1151 monday low
Elderson (07:15 UTC) and Waller (07:45 UTC) in the first London hour could materially shift this read
After Monday's hawkish-Fed, geopolitics-driven slide through 1.1200, Asia built a higher-low chain off the 1.1151 asian low. The London-open push was rejected at 1.1180, just under Monday's 1.1183 prior high. Price is holding above the 1.1170 swing low on the Asia trendline, RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.1170, 1.11657, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1180 rejection high opens the 1.1200 psych pivot
Close below the 1.1170 swing low breaks the Asia trendline and higher-low chain; fib 50% at 1.1166 is next
ECB's Elderson at 07:15 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift this read; a loss of 1.1151 asian low resumes Monday's slide
06:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows through Asia · RSI 63 · price 1.1179
HH/HL chain off Monday low, testing Asian session high.
After Monday's USD-driven slide to the 1.1151 swing low, the Asia session built higher lows, the latest at 1.1170, and price is now at the session high near 1.1180. That is the 50% retrace of Monday's decline, with Monday's prior high at 1.1183 just overhead into the HICP release and London open.
Support: 1.1170, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1183, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1183 prior high clears the 50% retrace and opens the 1.1200 round number
Break below the 1.1170 higher low ends the Asia HH/HL trendline sequence
Loss of the 1.1151 swing low resumes Monday's downtrend
Eurozone HICP (06:00 UTC), ECB's Elderson (07:15) and Fed's Waller (07:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Intraday bounce stalling below asian high · RSI 53 · price 1.11739
Higher lows off 1.1151, compressing 1.1170–1.1178.
Monday's London and NY sessions slid from 1.1210 to the 1.1151 NY base low as Fed hawkishness and geopolitics bid the USD. The Asia session rebounded to a 1.1178 asian high. The pullback held 1.1170, a shallow 23.6% retrace of the Asian rally, and price is compressing under that high into London open, with the 1.1165 higher low and rising trend support intact.
Support: 1.11701, 1.11649, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11775, 1.11832, 1.1200
What it said to watch
HICP at 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY / 0.6% MoM) lands next bar and could break the 1.1170–1.1178 compression
M15 close above the 1.1178 asian high opens the 1.1183 swing high and the 1.1200 pivot
Close below the 1.1170 pullback low exposes the 1.1165 higher low and the asian trend support
Loss of trend support puts the 1.1151 ny base low back in play
Elderson 07:15 UTC and Waller 07:45 UTC fall in the first hour of London
Tight consolidation below Asian high, higher low at 1.1170.
Yesterday's London/NY slide to 1.1151 on a geopolitics-bid USD gave way to an Asia session bounce from the 1.1154 Asian low as the dollar paused into Wednesday's CPI. Price stalled at the 1.1178 Asian high. Since then it has compressed in a 7-pip band, holding a 1.1170 higher low just above EMA20, a shallow 31% pullback of the Asia leg, late in the Asian range ahead of HICP and London open.
Support: 1.1170, 1.11535
Resistance: 1.11775, 1.11832, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1178 Asian high puts the 1.1183 swing high and the 1.1200 pivot in play
Loss of the 1.1170 higher low exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.1163 and the 1.1154 Asian low
EUR HICP at 06:00 UTC, ECB's Elderson 07:15 and Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC could break the range at London open
05:17 UTC
Asia rebound off Monday low, stalling below 1.1178 · RSI 55 · price 1.11724
Tight 1.1170–1.1178 compression, lower highs inside Asian range.
Monday's London-NY slide bottomed at the 1.1151 prior low near rollover as USD firmed on hawkish Fedspeak and oil. The Asian session rebound from the 1.1159 breakout ran to a 1.1178 Asian high, and price is now compressing in a 1.1170–1.1178 band of lower highs into London open. The pullback has held above the 38.2% of the Asian rebound, and RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 1.11701, 1.11592, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11775, 1.11832, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Euro-area HICP at 06:00 UTC, then ECB Elderson (07:15) and Fed Waller (07:45), could break the 1.1170–1.1178 compression
M15 close below the 1.1170 pullback low opens the 1.1159 breakout area and the 1.1151 prior low
M15 close above the 1.1178 Asian high puts the 1.1183 swing high and the 1.1200 round number in view
Asian rally off 1.1154 higher low; lower highs since 1.1178.
Monday's London-NY selloff from 1.1205 on USD strength bottomed at the 1.1151 monday low near rollover. The Asian rally from a 1.1154 higher low tagged 1.1178 as DXY eased, and late Asia is now retesting the 1.1170 breakdown lvl between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib with lower highs and ATR compressing to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1170, 1.11535, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11775, 1.11832, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1170 breakdown lvl exposes the 1.1154 asian low
Close above the 1.1178 asian high reopens the 1.1183 swing high and 1.1200 pivot
Loss of the 1.1151 monday low would confirm a fresh lower-low
Euro-area HICP at 06:00 UTC, ECB Elderson 07:15 and Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC around London open could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asian bounce stalling · RSI 50 · price 1.11709
Monday lower highs into 1.1151 prior low; Asia bounce to 1.1178 now holding above ema20.
Monday's oil- and Fed-driven USD bid took the pair from 1.1205 to a 1.1151 prior low before Asia lifted it to a 1.1178 asian high. Late in the Asian session price is consolidating just above the ema20 near 1.1170, roughly a quarter retracement of the bounce, with RSI(14) neutral at 50 and ATR(14) around 3 pips.
Support: 1.1170, 1.1165, 1.1152
Resistance: 1.1178, 1.1183, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Euro-area HICP at 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3%) and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could set the London session direction
M15 close below the fib 50% at 1.1165 would expose the 1.1152 prior low
Close above the 1.1178 asian high opens the 1.1183 swing high, with the 1.1200 round number above
Asian range broken higher, lower highs forming under 1.1178.
EURUSD slid from 1.1209 to a 1.1151 day low through London and NY as the USD bid held on a hawkish Fed and oil above $93. A break of the tight Asian range at 01:00 UTC lifted price to a 1.1178 Asian high. Late Asia is now printing lower highs back toward the 1.1165 pullback low near the 50% fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 55 and ATR(14) about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.11649, 1.11535
Resistance: 1.11775, 1.11832, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1165 pullback low and 50% fib exposes the 1.1154 asian low
M15 close above the 1.1178 asian high opens the 1.1183 swing high, then the 1.1200 round number
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% y/y) and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of London open
Asia higher-low rally capped at 1.1178, lower highs since.
After Monday's London-NY slide from 1.1210 on the oil-driven, hawkish-Fed USD bid, Asia bounced about 24 pips off the 1.1153 asian low but has printed lower highs under the 1.1178 asian high since 02:45 UTC. Price is resting on the 1.1171 pullback low with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) about 4 pips, a tight late-Asia drift.
Support: 1.11714, 1.11649, 1.11535
Resistance: 1.11775, 1.11832
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1171 pullback low exposes the 1.1165 asia pivot, near the 50% fib of the Asia rally
Close above the 1.1178 asian high opens the 1.1183 ny pivot from Monday's breakdown
Loss of the 1.1153 asian low would resume Monday's lower-low sequence
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the Asian range ahead of London open
Higher low at 1.1154 vs 1.1151, Asia higher-high chain capped at 1.1178.
Monday's London/NY slide on the hawkish-Fed USD bid ran from 1.1211 to a 1.1151 day low at rollover. Asia printed a higher low at 1.1154 and bounced 24 pips to the 1.1178 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 66 and price now coiling just below it while the 1.1171 pullback low holds.
Support: 1.11714, 1.11649, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11775, 1.11832, 1.11902
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1178 Asia high exposes the 1.1183 prior pivot and the 1.1190 london break level
Loss of the 1.1171 pullback low breaks the Asia uptrend line; the 1.1165 swing low sits near the 50% retracement
Failure at 1.1165 reopens the 1.1151 day low and the double-bottom read
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, both into London open, could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 62 · price 1.1172
Double bottom base at 1.1151, pausing below Asian high.
Monday's 60-pip slide from 1.1211, driven by a USD bid on Hammack and WTI above $93, carved a base at 1.1151–1.1154 into the NY close. Asia broke the 1.1161 neckline to complete a small double bottom, but the bounce stalled at the 1.11775 Asian high just above the 38.2% fib. Price is now easing toward the ema20 near 1.1168, with RSI(14) at 62 and ATR at 4 pips.
Support: 1.1168, 1.1161, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.11775, 1.1181, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.11775 Asian high opens the fib 50% at 1.1181 and the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the ema20 and a close back below the 1.1161 neckline negates the double bottom, exposing the 1.1151 day low
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC, then Elderson and Waller ahead of London midmorning, could break the Asian range
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 67 · price 1.11748
HH/HL chain off 1.1151 day low, stalling at 38.2% retrace.
Monday's London-NY selloff from 1.1211 to the 1.1151 day low came on hawkish Fed talk, oil above $93 and French fiscal stress. Late Asia shows a HH/HL bounce off the asian base at 1.1165, now pausing at the 38.2% fib below the 1.11775 asian high. RSI(14) is near 67, warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.11725, 1.1165, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11775, 1.1183, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1183 prior pivot (50% fib) opens the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the 1.11725 asian hl and the rising Asian trendline ends the bounce structure; below 1.1165 asian base, the 1.1151 day low is back in view
Euro-area HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read around London open
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, Asian bounce in progress · RSI 70 · price 1.11762
Asia HH/HL chain retracing Monday's London-NY lower-low sequence.
Monday's London break of 1.1190 extended through NY to 1.1151 on hawkish-Fed and oil-driven USD demand. Asia has since rebounded about 25 pips from the 1.1154 Asian low in a higher-high/higher-low chain along a rising trendline. Price is now at the 38.2% retrace of the decline, with RSI(14) at 70 and the 50% level aligned with the 1.1183 NY pivot overhead.
Support: 1.11725, 1.11535
Resistance: 1.11832, 1.1190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1183 ny pivot (50% retrace) opens the 1.1190 london break level
Failure to hold the 1.1173 latest hl breaks the Asian trendline and exposes the 1.1154 asian low
Euro area HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read around London open
02:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 68 · price 1.1173
Asia range break higher, higher lows since 1.1153.
Monday's London-NY slide from 1.1212 to a 1.1151 low came on hawkish Fed talk and oil-driven USD demand. Late Asia session has since broken above the 1.1153–1.1160 base and is pressing the 1.1175 session high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of that drop, with RSI(14) near 68. The 1.1165 retest low held on the pullback, keeping the Asia uptrend line intact.
Support: 1.1165, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1175, 1.1183, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1175 session high exposes the 1.1183 prior swing and the 50% fib near 1.1181
Failure to hold the 1.1165 retest low and the Asia uptrend line puts the 1.1153 asian low back in play
Euro-area HICP at 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% y/y) and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read; the 1.1200 round number is the reference on a hot print
02:31 UTC
24h downtrend, Asian bounce in progress · RSI 71 · price 1.11745
Higher lows off 1.1151, testing the 38.2% fib.
Monday's 60-pip slide from 1.1212 to the 1.1151 window low came on hawkish Fed talk and WTI above $93. In Asia, price broke above the overnight range at the 1.1161 breakout level and printed a higher low at 1.1165. It is now pressing the 38.2% fib of that decline at 1.1174, inside the base of yesterday's 1.1170–1.1183 London-NY range, with RSI(14) at 71.
Support: 1.11649, 1.11609, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11742, 1.11832, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1183 range top extends the bounce toward the 1.1200 psych level and reclaim zone
Loss of the 1.1165 higher low, then the 1.1161 breakout level, returns price to the overnight range
A break of the 1.1151 window low resumes the downtrend sequence
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 67 · price 1.11693
London-NY lower highs; Asian range broken higher.
Monday's drop from 1.1210 to the 1.1151 day low followed Hammack's hawkish comments and the oil-driven USD bid. In Asia the pair broke the 1.1153–1.1161 range top and is stalling at the 1.1171 session high, just under the 38.2% fib of Monday's drop, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 1.11649, 1.1161, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11714, 1.11735, 1.11832
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1165 pullback low keeps the Asia range break intact
A return below the 1.1161 range top marks the break as a false break
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.1174 opens the 1.1183 swing high
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend paused, early Asia bounce · RSI 64 · price 1.1169
Range break higher off a 1.1151 double bottom; session high 1.1171 below the 38.2% retrace.
Monday's slide from 1.1210 to the 1.1151 monday low tracked hawkish Fed talk and oil above $93. Early Asia session buyers defended the 1.1154 asia low, forming a double bottom, then lifted price through the 1.1161 range top to a 1.1171 session high. That high sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of the slide, with RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1154, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1171, 1.1183, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1161 range top keeps the break intact; a move back inside reopens the 1.1154 asia low and the 1.1151 monday low
An M15 close above the 1.1171 session high brings the 1.1183 prior shelf, near the 50% fib of Monday's slide, into play
1.1200 round number was Monday's breakdown point and is the upper limit of this intraday read
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read around London open
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 61 · price 1.11659
Lower highs through Monday London/NY; Asia break of overnight range.
Monday's London and NY sessions stepped lower from 1.1214 to a 1.1151 day low after the USD bid on Hammack's hawkish remarks and WTI above $93. In Asia, a 01:00 UTC push broke the 1.1154–1.1161 overnight range, but the move stalled at the 1.1170 Asian high, right at the 61.8% retracement of the drop from the 1.1183 NY high.
Support: 1.1161, 1.11535, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11703, 1.1176, 1.11832
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 Asian high / 61.8% opens the 1.1176 NY shelf and the 1.1183 NY high
Slip back below the 1.1161 late NY high returns focus to the 1.1154 Asian low and 1.1151 day low
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read around London open
01:32 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 68 · price 1.1169
Overnight range broken higher, first higher low at 1.1153.
Monday's 63-pip slide from 1.1215, driven by Hammack's hawkish remarks and oil above $93, stalled in a 1.1151–1.1160 overnight range. Early Asia lifted price out of the range top in a 10-pip bar. It now sits just under the 1.1170 session high and the 1.1175 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 1.1160, 1.1153, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.1175, 1.1183
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1160 range top returns price to the overnight range
Clearance of the 1.1175 38.2% fib opens the 1.1183 ny swing hi
The asia low at 1.1153 sits above the 1.1151 24h low; losing both resumes the lower-low sequence
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Monday's London and NY sessions extended the slide from 1.1210 to a 1.1151 swing low as Hammack's hawkish remarks and WTI above $93 lifted USD. Early Asia has broken out of the 1.1154–1.1161 range, with the Asian high now below price and RSI(14) near 70. Price is testing the fib 38.2 retracement at 1.1174, which sits on Monday's NY breakdown zone.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.1183
What it said to watch
M15 close above the fib 38.2 at 1.1174 opens the path to the 1.1183 London high
A drop back below the 1.1161 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break, with the 1.1151 swing low back in view
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, paused in tight range · RSI 58 · price 1.11599
Lower highs into Monday NY low, flat range since 15:45 UTC.
EUR/USD fell about 65 pips Monday from the 1.1216 Asia high. Hawkish Hammack remarks and WTI above $93 lifted USD, London broke 1.1200 and NY extended to 1.1155. Since then price has held a 1.1152–1.1161 range through late NY and early Asia, with the range top capping three times and RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1170, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 range top puts the 1.1170 breakdown point and the 61.8% NY swing fib in play
Failure to hold the 1.1152 range low exposes the 1.1145 UOB target and fresh lows
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the Asian range
Reclaim of the 1.1200 round number would void the downtrend read
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a tight base · RSI 44 · price 1.1154
Lower highs from 1.1217; 1.1151–1.1161 range since 14:45 UTC.
The Monday Asia low at 1.1198 (mon asia low) gave way at London open, and the decline ran through NY on Hammack's hawkish remarks and WTI above $93. Since 14:45 UTC price has compressed between the 1.1151 day low and a 1.1161 range cap. Early Asia is back at the 1.1154 session low, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.11535, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1170, 1.11976
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1151 day low and the session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1145
Reclaim of the 1.1161 range cap, then the 1.1170 breakdown level near the 23.6% retracement of the Monday decline, would break the base-and-drift read
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the current range
The mon asia low at 1.1198, just under 1.1200, caps any squeeze from crowded EUR short positioning
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight base · RSI 56 · price 1.11571
Lower highs from 1.1217; 10-pip range 1.1151–1.1161 since mid-NY.
London open broke Monday's Asian range lower, and the slide ran to 1.1155 into NY as oil above $93 and Hammack's hawkish comments lifted USD. Since 15:00 UTC price has held a 1.1151–1.1161 range, with the window low set at rollover. Early Asia is now pressing the range top just under descending resistance, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1170, 1.1176
What it said to watch
HICP at 06:00 UTC and Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the range either way
Close above the 1.1161 range top and the descending resistance line opens the 1.1170 ny breakdown area, then the 1.1176 fib 38.2
Failure to hold the 1.1151 window low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1145 uob target
00:17 UTC
Downtrend, basing near day low · RSI 56 · price 1.1158
Lower highs through London and NY; tight 1.1151–1.1161 base into early Asia.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1198, and NY extended the slide to a 1.1151 day low as hawkish Fed talk and WTI above $93 lifted USD. The first hour of Asia is basing in a 1.1151–1.1161 band. The rebound high at 1.1161 has capped three times, while a higher low at 1.1155 holds the rebound line.
Support: 1.11555, 1.11511, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1168, 1.1183
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 rebound high opens the 1.1168 breakdown point, near the 23.6% fib of the day's decline; 1.1183 NY swing hi sits above
Loss of the 1.1155 higher low and the 1.1151 day low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1145 UOB target
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3%) and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC around London open could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows through London/NY; tight base above 1.1151.
EUR/USD lost the Asia low at 1.1198 at London open. It extended lower through NY, where Hammack's rate-hike comments and WTI above $93 lifted USD, and bottomed at the 1.1151 session low near rollover. Early Asia Tuesday is a 10-pip base capped by the 1.1161 range top, with RSI(14) near 60 and the day's decline barely retraced.
Support: 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1179, 1.1198
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 range top opens the 1.1179 NY breakdown pt, near the 38.2% of the day's decline
Failure to hold the 1.1151 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward 1.1145
A return above the 1.1198 asia low would undo the London breakdown
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read