EUR/USD AI Live Scan, daily chart, Monday, 12 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 22 · price 1.11568
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 high; July range broken lower.
EURUSD has been in a seven-week downtrend from the 1.1711 Aug 21 high. A lower high at 1.1654 on Sep 9 was followed by an Oct 1 range break below the 1.1353 july low, and price is now trading under a falling EMA(50) with daily highs capped by a falling trendline. French fiscal stress and a firm USD on hawkish Fed pricing have kept rallies above 1.1200 short-lived for a fifth straight week, and today's close at 1.1157 sits on the swing low near 16-month lows with RSI around 22, deep in oversold territory.
Support: 1.1154, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1353, 1.1433
What it said to watch
A daily close below the 1.1154 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and opens room toward the 1.1100 round number
A close back above the 1.1276 lower high and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1353 july low the next test as former support
Only a recovery through the 50% fib of the Aug–Oct decline near 1.1433 would challenge the downtrend read
Euro-area HICP (Tue Oct 13 06:00 UTC) and US CPI (Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; a hot HICP meets a crowded EUR short position after RSI has reached oversold
14:13 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and pausing · RSI 24 · price 1.1204
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 peak, compressing above 1.1161.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 peak at 1.1711. The mid-September break below 1.1570 confirmed the turn, and price now sits about 220 pips under a rolling-over EMA(50) after five straight weekly declines into the 1.1161 swing low, the base of the Aug–Oct swing. The past six sessions have compressed between 1.1161 and 1.1285 as French fiscal stress and a firm, hawkish-Fed dollar keep EUR heavy. The Oct 9 relief high at 1.1243 stalled just under the descending trendline from the Sep 9 high, with RSI(14) near 24, deep in oversold territory.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1243, 1.1333, 1.1426
What it said to watch
A daily close below the 1.1161 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.1100 round number in view
A close above the descending trendline and the 1.1243 relief high would be the first break of the lower-high chain since September, with the ema20 near 1.1333 next above
The ema50 at 1.1426, also the Aug–Oct swing fib 50% area, remains the swing-trend filter while it slopes lower
A higher low with RSI(14) lifting out of oversold would point to downside exhaustion
EZ HICP on Tue Oct 13, then Lagarde and US CPI on Wed Oct 14, could materially shift this read