Lower highs since Friday's 1.1243; last week's 1.1165–1.1243 range broken to the downside.
EUR/USD gapped lower at the week open and bounced to 1.1217 in the Asia session. It then broke the 1.1200 pivot through London and extended in NY to a week low at 1.1151, driven by broad USD strength, hawkish Fed talk and French fiscal stress. Monday's drop took out the 1.1165 wed low and broke last week's range, leaving lower highs since Friday and price ~15 pips under EMA(20) near 1.1171, while RSI(14) near 27 is oversold and late NY trade has compressed into a 1.1151–1.1161 band.
Support: 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11645, 1.1171, 1.1200
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1165 wed low and EMA(20) near 1.1171 would put the range break in question
Failure to hold the 1.1151 week low extends the fri-mon drop toward 1.1145
Recovery through the 1.1186 38.2% retracement of the fri-mon drop and the 1.1200 pivot, along the lower highs line, invalidates the downtrend read
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 24 · price 1.11569
Lower highs 1.1243 → 1.1217; Wed–Fri floor near 1.1165 broken.
Monday's Asia-session bounce from the 1.1184 weekly open stalled at 1.1217 (monday high), extending the lower-highs sequence from Friday's 1.1243. Supply then pressed price through London and into the NY session, and the drop broke the 1.1165 floor that had held the Wed–Fri range. A firm USD on oil-driven haven demand and hawkish Fed talk, plus French fiscal stress, kept EUR heavy into a fresh week low at 1.1151. Price sits below the ema20 near 1.1170 and EMA50, with RSI(14) oversold around 24 and no bullish divergence yet on the Friday-Monday drop.
Support: 1.11511, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.11842, 1.12167
What it said to watch
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY): a hot print against crowded EUR shorts could trigger a squeeze toward the ema20 and weekly open
Failure to hold the 1.1151 week low exposes the 1.1145 16m low area
H1 close back above the 1.1184 weekly open would negate the range-break read
A break above the lower-highs line from Friday toward the 1.1217 monday high would mark the 50–61.8% retrace of the Friday-Monday drop
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into the NY close · RSI 32 · price 1.11547
Lower highs since Friday; 1.1165 range floor broken.
Lower highs from Friday's 1.1243 peak to the monday high at 1.1217 followed a gap-down weekly open at 1.1184. During NY hours today the pair broke through the prior low at 1.1165, which had been the Wednesday–Thursday range floor. The Friday–Monday leg came as USD stayed bid on firm oil and hawkish Fed commentary while French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. Price is pinned below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 32, and the session low at 1.1152 sits just above the 16m low zone around 1.1145–1.1150.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1165, 1.1184, 1.1217
What it said to watch
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC: a hot print against a crowded EUR short could lift price back through the prior low at 1.1165
H1 close above the weekly open at 1.1184 and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the breakdown read
Acceptance below the 16m low at 1.1145 extends the lower-low sequence; failure to hold the session low at 1.1152 is the first sign
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 18 · price 1.11533
Lower highs since Friday; Wed–Fri range broken lower.
EUR/USD gapped below Friday's 1.1202 close at the weekly open. After a brief Asia-session lift to the 1.1217 Monday high, it sold off through London and NY, cutting the Wednesday low at 1.1165 that had floored the 1.1165–1.1243 range all week. French fiscal stress and a bid USD frame the move. Price now sits at the Monday low of 1.1153, right on the 16-month low zone, below EMA(20) near 1.1172 with RSI(14) deeply oversold, and the lower-highs line from Friday's 1.1243 high still caps the structure.
Support: 1.1153, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1165, 1.1184, 1.1217
What it said to watch
Euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) could materially shift this read
Hourly close below the 1.1145 16-month low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 1.1165 Wednesday low and the 1.1184 weekly open would mark the range break as a false break
A break of the lower-highs line from Friday's high, or a reclaim of the 1.1217 Monday high, would undo the lower-high structure
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Lagarde speeches Wed are further event risk
Lower highs from Friday high; range break below 1.1165.
Lower highs run from Friday high at 1.1243 to the Monday high at 1.1217, set in the Asia session. Price faded from London open, and an NY-session drop broke the 1.1165 prior low that had held since Wednesday. That range break printed a Monday low at 1.1154 as the USD stayed bid on Middle East tensions and French fiscal stress weighed on the euro. Price sits about 20 pips under EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 30, just above the 1.1150 17-month low area.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11645, 1.1178, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1165 prior low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1150 17-month low area confirms a lower-low toward 1.1145
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.1178 and the Monday lower highs trendline would ease the downtrend read; the Monday high at 1.1217 caps the structure
Euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC to follow
Lower highs from Friday's peak; week range floor broken.
Lower highs run from Friday's 1.1243 peak to the 1.1217 monday high set in Asia, after a gap-down open at 1.1184. The slide ground through London and extended in NY to a 1.1154 monday low, below the 1.1165 wed low that had floored the week's range. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 31. A firm USD on Iran/oil haven demand and French fiscal stress on EUR framed the move, leaving the 1.1150 16-month low just beneath.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11645, 1.11842, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1165 wed low would mark the range break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.1150 16-month low extends the downtrend into fresh lows
Recovery through the 1.1184 weekly open breaks the lower-highs sequence, with the 0.382 fri-mon fib at 1.1188 alongside
Eurozone HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Lagarde speeches Wed and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are the next event risks
Lower high at 1.1217, break below the Wednesday 1.1165 low.
Monday's Asia-session high at 1.1217 formed a lower high beneath Friday's 1.1243. Selling then built through London and extended in NY hours, taking out Wednesday's 1.1165 prior low to print a fresh session low at 1.1154. The slide tracks a firm USD near 102.35 and French fiscal strain weighing on EUR; price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 29 after a 63-pip leg off the Monday high.
Support: 1.11541, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.11645, 1.11842, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1165 prior low would turn the range break into a false break
Weekly open at 1.1184, aligned with EMA(20) and the 50% fib of the Monday leg, is the first area to watch for rejection on any rebound
Failure to hold the session low at 1.1154 exposes uob support at 1.1145
Lower-highs trendline from Friday's 1.1243 through the monday high at 1.1217 caps the structure; a close above it breaks the lower-high sequence
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3%) and ECB Lane at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, pressing range floor · RSI 30 · price 1.11726
Lower high at 1.1217; 1.1165–1.1243 range floor under test.
Wednesday's London-session selloff took EUR/USD from 1.1265 to the 1.1165 Wed low. Price has since held a 1.1165–1.1243 range, with the Friday high capping the rebound. Monday's Asia-session push to the 1.1217 Monday high on the energy-ceasefire headlines stalled near the 50% retracement of that drop. A firmer USD and renewed French fiscal worries then drove a steady slide through London and NY, below the weekly open and EMA(20). The Monday low at 1.1170 now sits just above the Wed low, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 1.11695, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.11842, 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1165 Wed low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
Recovery above the 1.1184 weekly open and EMA(20) returns price to mid-range
Break of the lower-high trendline and the 1.1217 Monday high reopens the 1.1243 Friday high
Tue 06:00 UTC HICP (f/c 3.3%) and Wed 12:30 UTC US CPI could materially shift this read; Hammack at 16:50 UTC lands in holiday-thin liquidity
Monday's Asia session pop to the 1.1217 Asia high, driven by the energy-ceasefire headlines, met rejection. The move was fully reversed through London and NY as French fiscal stress and a firm USD kept the euro offered. That leaves a lower high beneath the 1.1243 Friday high, with price pressing the 1.1170 session low just above Wednesday's 1.1165 swing low, the floor of the week's range. Price trades below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 30, and the weekly open at 1.1184 now caps intraday bounces.
Support: 1.11695, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.11842, 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1165 swing low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
Recovery back above the 1.1184 weekly open and EMA(20) eases the downside pressure; the 1.1217 Asia high is the next lower-high marker
Lower-highs line from the Friday high caps unless cleared on a close
Euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) and Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for the range
Lower highs (1.1243 → 1.1217) above a flat 1.1165–1.1173 floor.
Monday's Asia-session rally was rejected at the monday high of 1.1217, a lower high below Friday's 1.1243 prior high. Price then slid through London and NY hours back under the weekly open and ema20 to test the session low at 1.1173. That puts price on the range floor that has held since Wednesday's London-open drop, with RSI(14) near 31. The French fiscal premium and a firm USD into US CPI week have kept each bounce short-lived.
Support: 1.11727, 1.11645, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11842, 1.1192, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1165 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.1150 round number
Recovery above the weekly open at 1.1184 and ema20 near 1.1192 would ease the lower-high pressure
Close above the 1.1217 monday high breaks the lower-high sequence from the 1.1243 prior high
Euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% y/y) and Fed Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.7% y/y) is the main event risk for the range floor
Lower highs since Friday's 1.1243 early-London peak. Monday's Asia-session bounce stalled at the 1.1217 monday high, near the 61.8% of the Friday–Monday decline, and London then sold it back through the weekly open at 1.1184 as haven USD demand returned on Middle East tensions in holiday-thinned trade. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 34, pressing the monday low at 1.1173 just above Wednesday's 1.1165 week low. That floor has held three separate tests this week.
Support: 1.11727, 1.11645, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.11842, 1.12015, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1165 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.1145 16m low
Recovery above the 1.1184 weekly open and the 1.1202 fri close would stall the lower-high sequence; the 1.1217 monday high caps the trendline of lower highs
Euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk for the range floor
US holiday liquidity today leaves moves off the monday low prone to exaggeration
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into range floor · RSI 41 · price 1.11783
1.1165–1.1243 range since Wednesday, lower highs compressing toward the floor.
Since Wednesday's London-open selloff, EUR/USD has held a 1.1165–1.1243 range. Lower highs at Friday's 1.1243 and the 1.1217 monday high form a lower-high trendline, and Friday's peak stalled in the 61.8–78.6% retracement of the Wednesday drop. Monday's Asian bounce was rejected at that trendline, and London took price back below the weekly open and EMA(20) as Middle East headlines revived haven USD demand. The French fiscal premium keeps the pair pressing toward the thu low and week low, with RSI(14) sliding to ~40.
Support: 1.11716, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.11842, 1.11976, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1165 week low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low after the thu low at 1.1172
Recovery back above the weekly open (1.1184) and ema20 (~1.1198) would neutralise Monday's London selloff
H1 close above the 1.1217 monday high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 1.1243 range top
Thin US-holiday liquidity today; EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday, price back below weekly open.
EUR/USD has traded a 1.1165–1.1243 range since the London-led Tuesday–Wednesday drop from 1.1276. Friday's rebound stalled at 1.1243, between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements of that drop, and Monday's Asian-session high at 1.1217 set another lower high. London selling today pushed price back below the 1.1184 weekly open and the EMA(20) near 1.1197, with RSI(14) near 40, as the hawkish-Fed USD bid and the French fiscal overhang cap rebounds in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 1.11716, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.11842, 1.1197, 1.12167
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1172 Thursday low exposes the 1.1165 week low; a break there would extend the lower-low sequence
An H1 close back above the 1.1184 weekly open and the ema20 near 1.1197 would neutralise today's London fade
A close above the 1.1217 Monday high breaks the lower-highs trendline from Friday's peak
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC and euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Lower highs inside 1.1165–1.1243 band, rising lows line broken.
EUR/USD has been held in a 1.1165–1.1243 band since Wednesday's London-open drop. Highs are stepping lower, from Friday's 1.1243 to the 1.1217 Monday high, which stalled near the 50% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday decline. Monday's Asian bounce off the gap-down weekly open faded into the London session, and price has slipped below EMA(20) near 1.1197, the rising lows line and the 1.1184 weekly open, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s. French fiscal strain keeps EUR offered on thin holiday liquidity, leaving the 1.1172 thu low and the 1.1165 wed low as the next floor.
Support: 1.11716, 1.11645, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11842, 1.1197, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1165 wed low breaks the range floor and exposes the 16m low area near 1.1150
Recovery above the 1.1184 weekly open and the ema20 at 1.1197 would neutralise the London-session break
Close above the 1.1217 monday high breaks the lower highs sequence
Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC today), euro-area HICP (Tue 06:00 UTC) and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs over flat lows, 1.1165–1.1243 compression.
Since Wednesday's London-open slide, highs have stepped lower, from the 1.1243 Friday high (just beyond the 61.8% of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop) to the 1.1217 Asia high today. Lows at 1.1165 (wed low) and 1.1172 (thursday low) have held beneath. The Asia-session bounce on the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire faded into London, putting price back below EMA(20) near 1.1201. RSI(14) sits around 44 and price is a few pips above the 1.1184 weekly open, with French fiscal stress and a firm USD capping rallies.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1172, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1201, 1.1217, 1.1243
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1184 weekly open exposes the thursday low at 1.1172 and the wed low at 1.1165
H1 close above the 1.1217 asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 1.1243 friday high
Failure to reclaim ema20 near 1.1201 keeps the lower-highs read intact
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC today and euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6% MoM / 3.7% YoY) is the main USD-side risk to the range
Lower highs and higher lows since Wednesday, coiling near 1.1200.
The Tue–Wed drop from 1.1276 to the 1.1165 swing low accelerated at Wednesday's London open as French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. Since then the pair has compressed into lower highs (1.1276, Friday high 1.1243, Monday high 1.1217) and higher lows (1.1165, Thu low 1.1172, weekly open 1.1184). Monday's gap down to the weekly open filled in the Asian session on softer USD and oil relief, but the rally stalled below the 50% retracement, and price now sits just under a flat ema20 near 1.1205 with RSI(14) at 50 in holiday-thinned trade.
Support: 1.11838, 1.11716, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12047, 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1217 monday high and the lower-highs line breaks the compression; the 1.1243 friday high, just above the 61.8% retracement of the Tue–Wed drop, is next
Failure to hold the 1.1184 weekly open exposes the 1.1172 thu low and the 1.1165 swing low along the higher-lows line
ema20 at 1.1205 is the pivot for the session; repeated closes back above it would shift the read toward range
ECB Vujčić at 10:00 UTC today and HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could break the coil; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
07:02 UTC
Sideways, compressing after Wednesday's drop · RSI 55 · price 1.12068
Lower highs against higher lows, coiling near 1.1200.
Wednesday's London-open slide from 1.1227 printed the week low at 1.11645. Since then the pair has carved higher lows on Thursday and Friday under a sequence of lower highs: the 1.12764 week high, the 1.12425 Friday high and Monday's 1.12167 Asian high. Monday gapped below the 1.12015 Friday close to a 1.11838 monday low and filled it during the Asia session on the softer USD and energy-ceasefire relief. Price now sits on a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) at the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop, with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 1.12015, 1.11838, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12425, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.12167 Asian high, then the 1.12425 Friday high, breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.12764 week high
Failure to hold the 1.12015 Friday close, then the 1.11838 monday low, breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.11645 week low
Eurozone HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% y/y) is the nearest catalyst for a break of the coil
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Vujčić 10:00 UTC and Hammack 16:50 UTC today are secondary
Contracting range 1.1164–1.1242: higher lows, Friday lower high.
The window's dominant leg came at Wednesday's London open, a 110-pip slide from 1.1276 to the 1.1164 prior-week low. Price has since compressed on rising lows, and Friday's Asia push to the 1.1242 fri high was rejected above the 61.8% retracement and sold back through London and NY. Monday's Asia session gapped below Friday's close to the 1.1184 gap low, then recovered to the 1.1217 asia high as the energy ceasefire knocked oil lower and the USD softened; price now sits just under the flat ema cluster near 1.1205, with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1164, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1205, 1.1217, 1.1242
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1217 asia high and the 50% retracement near 1.1220 reopens the 1.1242 fri high
Failure to hold the 1.1184 gap low exposes the 1.1164 prior wk low and the 1.1150 16m low
Repeated H1 closes below the ema cluster near 1.1205 keep the range read intact with the lows under pressure
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC today and euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could break the range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk for this structure
1.1165–1.1243 range below the 1.1276 prior-week high, with higher lows since Wednesday.
Wednesday's London-session selloff from the 1.1276 prior-week high to the 1.1165 prior-week low set the dominant move. Since then price has ranged below Friday's 1.1243 high, which faded through NY. Lows have stepped higher into Monday's 1.1184 weekly open. In Asia, Monday filled the weekend gap back above Friday's close as the USD eased with yields, stalling at the 1.1217 Asian high. Price now sits just above EMA(20) near the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday selloff, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 1.12015, 1.11842, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12425, 1.12764
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the weekly open at 1.1184 breaks the higher-lows line and puts the prior-week low at 1.1165 back in view
Failure to hold the Friday close at 1.1202 reopens the weekend gap and shifts the read back to the lower half of the range
Acceptance above the Asian high at 1.1217 and then Friday's high at 1.1243 would mark a range break, opening the path to the prior-week high at 1.1276
ECB's Vujčić speaks at 10:00 UTC today and euro-area HICP lands Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% y/y); either could reset the range
US September CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC is the larger USD-side risk to this read
The dominant leg was Wednesday's London-open drop from Tuesday's 1.1276 prior-week high to the 1.1164 prior-week low, driven by French fiscal stress and a firm USD. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, first at the 1.1243 Friday high and then at the 1.1217 Asia high, while holding higher lows. Monday's weekly open at 1.1184 gapped 17 pips under the 1.1202 prior close, but the Asian range filled it as the USD softened on the Michigan sentiment miss. Price now sits on the 38.2% retrace near 1.1207, just above EMA(20) and at EMA(50), with RSI(14) mid-range near 57.
Support: 1.12015, 1.11842, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12425, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1217 Asia high and the lower-highs line near 1.1221 breaks the consolidation, putting the 1.1243 Friday high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1202 prior close and then the 1.1184 weekly open exposes the higher-lows line and the 1.1164 prior-week low
Only a recovery through the 1.1276 prior-week high would negate the lower-highs sequence
ECB's Vujčić (10:00 UTC today) and Tuesday's HICP (06:00 UTC, f/c 3.3% y/y) could materially shift this read; US CPI follows Wed 12:30 UTC
02:02 UTC
Range after midweek drop, recovering · RSI 57 · price 1.1213
1.1165–1.1243 range with higher lows since Wednesday's low.
Wednesday's London-open drop from Tuesday's 1.1276 week high to the 1.1165 week low set the dominant move. Since then H1 has rotated inside a 1.1165–1.1243 range, with higher lows printed Wednesday through Friday and along the higher-lows trendline. Monday's gap down to the 1.1184 weekly open was filled during the Asia session as USD softened on Friday's weak Michigan sentiment print, putting price back above EMA(20) near 1.1206 and just under the 50% fib of Wednesday's drop at 1.1221, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1184, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1221, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1243 Friday high breaks the range top and the lower-high sequence from the 1.1276 week high
Rejection at the 1.1221 fib 50% keeps price rotating inside the range
Loss of the 1.1184 weekly open and the higher-lows trendline puts the 1.1165 week low back in play
EUR HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Vujčić 10:00 UTC and Hammack 16:50 UTC speak today
01:02 UTC
Range after Wednesday's drop, lows stepping higher · RSI 55 · price 1.12155
Higher lows off 1.1165 week low inside a 1.1165–1.1276 range.
Tuesday's London-led push to the 1.1276 week high reversed into Wednesday's 112-pip slide to the 1.1165 week low as French fiscal stress and a firm USD dominated. Lows have since stepped higher at 1.1172 and 1.1187, while Friday's rally to 1.1243 on lower French yields stalled beyond the 61.8% fib and faded through NY. Monday's Asia session has filled the gap from the 1.1184 weekly open and lifted price back above ema20 near 1.1205, testing the fib 50% at 1.1220 just under the 1.1226 Thu high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1184, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1226 Thu high and 1.1243 Friday high would put the 1.1276 week high back in view
Loss of ema20 and the 1.1200 round number back toward the 1.1184 weekly open would break the higher-lows sequence
A close below the 1.1165 week low resumes the decline from Tuesday's high
Euro-area HICP (Tue 06:00 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read