The lower-high sequence from the 1.1600 area is intact. Since the week low at 1.1161, price has compressed against a flat base, with the 1.1172 swing low holding while highs step down from the 1.1285 swing high to the 1.1243 lower high, which capped near the 61.8% fib. French fiscal stress and a firm USD keep EUR on track for a fifth weekly loss, with price back below the ema20 and EMA50, which remain in bearish alignment.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1161, 1.1120
Resistance: 1.1205, 1.1243, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1161 week low extends the downtrend and exposes the 1.112 area
H4 close above the 1.1243 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1285 swing high back in view
Repeated holds at the 1.1172 swing low with ATR near 24 pips point to compression ahead of a range break
Euro area HICP Tue 13 Oct 06:00 UTC and US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1615; higher low at 1.1172 forming inside 1.1164-1.1285.
Lower highs and lower lows have run all window from 1.1615, with each bounce failing below the prior swing at 1.1498, 1.1410, 1.1380, 1.1285 and 1.1276. French fiscal stress drove the slide to the 17m low at 1.1164. Since then a higher low at 1.1172 has formed and price has recovered to the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1276-1.1164 leg as USD corrects from 18-month highs, with the ema50 near 1.1245 directly overhead. ATR(14) has compressed to about 27 pips from 50+ in late September, consistent with a basing range rather than an extending trend.
Support: 1.1172, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1280, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the ema50 near 1.1245 and the lower highs at 1.1276-1.1285 would break the lower-high sequence and expose the prior high at 1.1380
Failure to hold the 1.1172 higher low reopens the 17m low at 1.1164 and confirms the range is resolving lower
Price is pressing the falling trendline of lower highs; rejection back under 1.1225 keeps the downtrend structure intact
ECB's Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US UMich sentiment plus inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Euro-area HICP on Tue Oct 13 (06:00 UTC, f/c 3.3% y/y) is the next scheduled EUR risk against the 61.8% retrace zone
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1615; base forming 1.1161-1.1276.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows from 1.1615 down to the 17-month low at 1.1161. French fiscal stress drove the latest leg, while this week's USD correction has supported a bounce. The 1.1161 and 1.1165 lows held, with a higher low at 1.1172, leaving a double bottom candidate inside a 1.1161-1.1276 range. Price has reclaimed EMA20 (~1.1218) and is probing the lower-high line and the 38.2% fib near 1.1245, still below the ema50 at ~1.1253, while ATR(14) has compressed to ~26 pips from ~34 earlier in the week.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11716, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1253, 1.12764, 1.12851
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1276 week high completes the double bottom and breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1285 prior high next
Rejection at the ema50 / 38.2% fib zone keeps the bounce corrective within the downtrend
Loss of the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1172 higher low, reopens the 17m low at 1.1161
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations today, plus euro-area HICP on Tue, could materially shift this read
Renewed OAT-Bund spread widening has been the main driver of the euro's lows and could break the base
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a base · RSI 45 · price 1.12262
Lower highs from 1.1615; lows flattening at 1.1161-1.1172 range.
Three weeks of lower highs and lower lows from 1.1615 took EURUSD to a 17-month low at 1.1161 as French fiscal stress hit the euro. Since then the swing lows at 1.1161, 1.1165 and 1.1172 have flattened into a range low with slight higher lows, capped by the 1.1280 range high and a lower-highs line from 1.1285. Price is back above the 1.12 round number and EMA20 as US yields ease, but it is still below EMA50 and EMA20 has not crossed it. ATR(14) near 25 pips is well above the roughly 15-pip regime of mid-September.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1165, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.1280, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1280 range high and the lower-highs line would break the swing sequence; the 61.8% fib of the 1.1380 swing high to 1.1161 leg sits just above near 1.1296, and clearing it opens the path to the 1.1380 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1165 range low and the higher-lows line would resume the downtrend toward the 1.1110 ing support zone
Slip back below the 1.12 round number would put the bounce at risk and keep price pinned to the range low
An upward EMA20/EMA50 cross would be the first ema cross against the downtrend in this window
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (today 14:00 UTC) and EZ HICP (Tue 06:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; fresh OAT-Bund spread widening would override the data
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a base · RSI 44 · price 1.12132
Lower highs since 1.1410; 1.1162–1.1280 range forming at lows.
The five-week slide from 1.1615 printed successive lower highs at 1.1410 and 1.1380, driven by French fiscal and OAT stress. Since early October the move has stalled into a 1.1162–1.1280 range. The range low has held twice, with a marginal higher low at 1.1172, and the range top sits near the 50% retracement of the 1.1410–1.1161 impulse. Price has reclaimed EMA20 around the 1.1200 pivot, while EMA50 near 1.1240 lines up with the lower-high trendline. ATR(14) at ~27 pips is well off the late-September expansion, which marks compression inside the base.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1162, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1280, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1226 swing high and the lower-high trendline near 1.1240 would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 1.1280 range top
Rejection at the 1.1280 range top, the 50% impulse retracement, keeps the downtrend structure intact
Loss of the 1.1172 higher low and the 1.1162 range low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1100 round number
A sustained break above 1.1280 targets the 1.1380 lower high
ECB Schnabel and US U-Mich sentiment Fri, then EZ HICP Tue Oct 13 and US CPI next week, could break the range compression
Fresh French OAT spread headlines remain the main swing driver for the range edges