Lower highs 1.1285/1.1276, equal lows near 1.1161–1.1165.
The week opened at 1.1259. Both legs lower came outside NY hours: Monday's Asia-session slide to the 1.1161 week low, then Wednesday's London-open break from 1.1227 to the 1.1165 wed low, as French OAT stress and the US yield surge swamped the German IP beat. Tuesday's relief rally capped at the 1.1276 tue high, a lower high under Friday's 1.1285. The NY bounce off the wed low is now pressing ema20 near 1.1204, which coincides with the 38.2% of the tue-wed fib, and RSI(14) sits near 41.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low breaks the equal-lows floor and extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close above 1.1220 mon high (50% of the tue-wed fib) opens the 1.1259 weekly open and the 1.1276 tue high
Failure to clear ema20 at 1.1204 keeps the bounce corrective inside the lower highs line
Thu: Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Lane 10:00, ECB Accounts 11:30 (high) and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.1161–1.1276 weekly range; second test of the range floor held.
Wednesday's London-open slide erased all of Tuesday's relief rally as the French bond sell-off resumed and US yields climbed. That leaves EURUSD in the lower third of the 1.1161–1.1276 weekly range, below EMA(20) near 1.1203, with RSI(14) around 42. The wed low at 1.1165 held just above the monday low of 1.1161 along the range floor, and the NY rebound stalled at 1.1203, short of the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop. Price is now consolidating just under 1.12.
Support: 1.1165, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1222, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 monday low breaks the range floor and marks a fresh 17-month low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1203, which sits near the 38.2% fib, would ease the immediate downside pressure
Recovery above 1.1222, the prior range shelf from Monday–Tuesday, puts the weekly open at 1.1259 back in view
ECB Accounts (Thu 11:30 UTC), Lane, US jobless claims and Waller could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Friday into Tuesday; Monday low retested Wednesday and held.
EUR/USD has swung inside a 1.1161–1.1285 range since Friday's post-NFP high. Both downside legs came fast: Monday's Asia-session drop and Wednesday's London-open slide from the 1.1222 breakdown point, driven by French fiscal stress, firm US yields and Brent above $100. Wednesday's low at 1.1165 held just above the Monday low at 1.1161, and the bounce has stalled under EMA(20) near 1.1205 and the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's 1.1276 high to Wednesday's low, with RSI(14) back in the high 30s; Tuesday's high below Friday's keeps a lower-highs line capping the range, with the weekly open at 1.1259 above.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1205, 1.1222, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close below the monday low at 1.1161 breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of the 1.1222 breakdown area (50% fib) shifts price back toward mid-range and the weekly open at 1.1259
ECB Lane 10:00 UTC and ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC Thu and Fed Waller are the USD-side risk around the wed low
20:02 UTC
Range with lower highs, pressing week low · RSI 39 · price 1.11989
1.1161–1.1285 range; highs stepping lower Fri→Tue, lows holding at 1.116x.
Wednesday's London-open slide erased Tuesday's French fiscal-relief rally. EURUSD fell from near the 1.1259 week open to a 1.11645 Wed low, a retest of Monday's 1.1161 low, as US yields hit 24-year highs and Brent topped $100. The NY-session bounce stalled at 1.1203, just under the Tue low and the EMA(20) near 1.1206, with RSI(14) recovering to ~39, while lower highs from Friday's 1.1285 keep compressing the range against the 1.116x floor.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1222, 1.12587
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 Monday low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower low
Close back above the 1.1203 Tue low and EMA(20) opens the 1.1222 mon high, the 50% of the Tue-Wed drop fib
Lower highs trendline from Friday's 1.1285 sits near the 1.1259 week open, capping the upper half of the range
ECB Accounts (Thu 11:30 UTC), Lane, Waller and US jobless claims could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Downleg from Tuesday high, bouncing near week low · RSI 44 · price 1.12002
Week range 1.1161–1.1276, lower highs since Tuesday, retest of Monday low held.
EURUSD has fully reversed Tuesday's relief rally to the 1.1276 high. Renewed French bond selling, surging US yields and Brent above $100 drove a London-open drop on Wednesday that bottomed at the wed low of 1.1165, just above Monday's week low at 1.1161. The bounce to 1.1200 sits below EMA(20) at 1.1206 and the ema50 at 1.1221, capped so far by the NY high at 1.1203 and the line of lower highs from Wednesday's Asia session, with RSI(14) recovering to 44 from the mid-20s.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.1221, 1.12587
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the NY high at 1.1203 and the lower highs line puts the 50% fib and ema50 zone near 1.1221 in play
Failure to hold the wed low at 1.1165 and the week low at 1.1161 confirms a lower low and breaks the week's range
Recovery of the week open at 1.1259 would negate Wednesday's reversal from Tuesday's high
FOMC minutes reaction is now in progress; Waller, the ECB accounts and US jobless claims on Thursday could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend since Tuesday's high, stalling at week low · RSI 35 · price 1.11916
1.1161–1.1276 weekly range; Tuesday rally fully reversed, base retested.
EURUSD opened the week at 1.1259 and gapped lower in Monday's Asia session to the 1.1161 week low. Tuesday's London-led relief rally to 1.1276 was fully unwound at Wednesday's London open, as renewed French bond selling, Brent above $100 and 24-year-high US yields broke the 1.1222 breakdown pt. Price is now back near the range base, with today's 1.1165 day low holding just above the week low and the NY bounce capped below ema20 at 1.1208. RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.1165, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1208, 1.1222, 1.1259
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1161 week low breaks the range base and opens fresh 17-month lows
Recovery above ema20 (1.1208) and the 1.1222 breakdown pt would neutralise Wednesday's breakdown
Weekly open at 1.1259 is the upper reference if short-covering extends
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC are the immediate catalyst and could materially shift this read
ECB meeting accounts Thu 11:30 UTC are a second EUR-side risk
Lower highs from Friday's 1.1285 peak; twin lows 1.1161-1.1165.
EUR/USD unwound all of Tuesday's London-led relief rally to 1.1276. Today's London open selloff, driven by French bond stress, $100+ Brent and 24-year highs in US yields, carried price to a 1.1165 Wed low, just above Monday's Asia-session 1.1161 week low, forming twin lows. The NY bounce stalled at 1.1203, beneath the 38.2% of the Tue-Wed fib and the ema20 near 1.1208, with price also below the ema50 at 1.1222 and the lower-highs line from Friday intact; RSI(14) sank to the mid-teens at the low and has only recovered to ~31.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1208, 1.1222, 1.12587
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ECB accounts Thu 11:30 UTC are the next EUR-side risk
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low breaks the twin lows and confirms a fresh lower low
Hold of the wed low and week low with RSI(14) basing keeps a retest-and-bounce structure in play
H1 close back above the ema20 and ema50 (1.1208-1.1222) would neutralise today's breakdown, with the weekly open at 1.1259 and the lower-highs line next
EUR/USD reversed Tuesday's London-led relief rally at 1.1276, a lower high beneath Friday's post-payrolls 1.1285. It then dropped about 45 pips in the first hour of London today as French bond stress, Brent above $100 and a 5.35% US 10y weighed. The slide stalled at 1.1165 during NY hours, just above Monday's 1.1161 week low, and price is bouncing toward the EMA20 at 1.1211 with RSI(14) lifting off the low 30s; the 1.1222 breakdown point sits near the 50% fib of the Tue-Wed drop, with the 1.1259 week open above.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1222, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1100 round number
Recovery above the EMA20 and the 1.1222 breakdown / 50% fib zone would neutralise today's London breakdown
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB accounts Thu 11:30 UTC are the next EUR-side catalyst
A break above the lower highs trendline from Friday's 1.1285 peak would invalidate the downtrend read
15:02 UTC
Downtrend within weekly range, pressing the lows · RSI 33 · price 1.11869
1.1161–1.1276 range, lower highs since Friday, retest of the weekly low.
EURUSD has rotated inside a 1.1161–1.1276 range since Monday's Asia-session flush. Tuesday's London-led bounce stalled below Friday's 1.1285 high, extending the lower highs, and has been fully unwound since today's London open as French OAT selling and a firmer USD returned. Price sits below the EMA(20) near 1.1215 with RSI(14) near 33, and today's 1.1165 day low is holding just above Monday's 1.1161 weekly low, while the 38.2% of the Tue–Wed slide near 1.1207 overlaps the 1.1203 London high.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1215, 1.12587
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1161 weekly low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low.
A recovery above the 1.1203 London high and the EMA(20) near 1.1215 would neutralise today's slide. The 1.1259 weekly open is the next reference above.
The lower highs line from Friday's 1.1285 peak keeps the range top capped near 1.1276.
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC today and the ECB accounts on Thu at 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
EURUSD has given back all of Tuesday's NY-session short-covering rally to 1.1276. Wednesday's London open slide took price to a 1.1165 day low, just above Monday's 1.1161 week low, as renewed French OAT selling and USD demand ahead of the FOMC minutes outweighed the German IP beat. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.1213 with RSI(14) oversold around 22, and the fib 38.2 of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop at 1.1203 is the first area overhead, well under the 1.1259 weekly open.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1213, 1.12587
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's range floor
Recovery through the fib 38.2 and ema20 zone at 1.1203–1.1213 would mark the slide as stalling, with 1.1225 pre-slide level next
Weekly open at 1.1259 marks the upper half of the week's range; reclaiming it negates the lower-high sequence
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
ECB accounts Thu 11:30 UTC and Lane at 10:00 UTC are the next EUR-side risk
Lower highs since Thursday; Monday low 1.1161 not yet retested.
Tuesday's London-led relief rally to the 1.1276 Tue high has been fully unwound. Wednesday slid through the Asia session, then broke below 1.1229 into the London open and extended to the 1.1175 Wed low as French bond selling resumed, with the German IP beat ignored. Price is below EMA(20) near 1.1218 with RSI(14) at 24, oversold, and the post-drop bounce high at 1.1203 has capped. Tuesday's peak marks a third lower high in the window.
Support: 1.11753, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12032, 1.12182, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 Monday low breaks the week low and confirms a lower-low; failure to hold the 1.1175 Wed low is the first signal
Recovery above the 1.1203 bounce high and EMA(20) at 1.1218 would ease the downside read; the 38.2–50% retrace of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop sits at 1.1214–1.1226
Lower-highs trendline from Tuesday's high caps rebounds while intact
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT today and ECB accounts Thursday 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after London-open drop · RSI 28 · price 1.11896
EUR/USD shed roughly 40 pips at today's London open and erased Tuesday's relief rally as French bond selling resumed and Brent held above $100. Price now sits on the 78.6% fib of the Monday–Tuesday rally, just above the 1.1179 day low and roughly 30 pips under the H1 EMA(20) near 1.1220. Lower highs from Friday's 1.1285 through Tuesday's 1.1276 frame the week, while the 1.1161 Monday low still marks the range floor and RSI(14) has dropped into oversold territory near 28.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1179, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1220, 1.1259
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.1161 Monday low breaks the week's range floor
Failure to hold the 78.6% fib and the 1.1179 day low exposes the Monday low
Reclaim of the 1.1203 Tuesday low and the EMA(20) near 1.1220 eases the downside read
Weekly open at 1.1259 and the lower-highs line cap any recovery while they hold
ECB Accounts Thu 11:30 UTC are the next EUR-side risk
Tuesday's relief rally fully retraced; prior-day low broken and retested from below.
Tuesday's London-NY relief rally to the 1.1276 week high has fully reversed. A 37-pip London open drop today cut through the 1.1203 tue low and printed a 1.1179 session low, as Brent above $100 and a firmer USD into the FOMC Minutes weighed on EUR. The rebound stalled right at the old tue low. Price sits below ema20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 30, and the lower highs from 1.1311 remain intact, though the session low is still holding above Monday's 1.1161 week low.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1228, 1.1259
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.1203 (tue low) would undo today's breakdown; above 1.1228, where ema20 meets the 50% retracement of the Tuesday-to-today drop, the 1.1259 weekly open comes back into play
Failure to hold the 1.1179 session low exposes the 1.1161 week low (17-month low)
A break above the 1.1276 week high would breach the lower highs line from 1.1311
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB Accounts Thu 11:30 UTC are the next EUR-side risk
Lower high at 1.1276 under prior week's 1.1311; London-open breakdown toward Monday's low.
EUR/USD has retraced roughly two-thirds of Tuesday's rally after a 47-pip London-open drop broke the Asian low at 1.1222 and set a session low at 1.1179. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.1230 and the weekly open at 1.1259. Tuesday's 1.1276 week high capped below last Thursday's 1.1311, extending the lower-high sequence along the descending trendline, while RSI(14) near 28 is oversold as Brent above $100 and USD demand into the FOMC Minutes weigh. Monday's 1.1161 week low, a 17-month low set during the Asia session, is the next reference below.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1259, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low would extend the lower-low sequence to a fresh 17-month low
Recovery back above the 1.1222 asian low and EMA(20) would neutralise the London-open breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.1179 session low puts Monday's low in direct focus
Close above the weekly open at 1.1259 would reopen the 1.1276 week high and the lower-high line
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read; ECB Accounts Thu 11:30 UTC follow
Lower highs from 1.1276 Tuesday peak; Tue–Wed range low broken at London open.
Wednesday's London open broke the Tue–Wed range in a single 37-pip bar. It cut through Tuesday's low at 1.1203 to a 1.1182 session low and retraced roughly 75% of the Monday–Tuesday rally off the 1.1161 week low. The digest links the move to Brent back above $100 and French debt worries, which outweighed a strong German IP beat. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.1232 after a string of lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1276 peak, with RSI(14) oversold near 23.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1232, 1.1259
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1182 session low exposes the 1.1161 week low, Monday's 17-month low
An H1 close back above the Tuesday low at 1.1203 would mark the London break as a false break
A recovery through EMA(20) at 1.1232 is needed to challenge the lower highs line; the week open at 1.1259 sits above
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT tonight and ECB accounts Thu 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1276 inside a 1.1161–1.1276 week range.
EUR/USD has given back about half of Tuesday's London-led rally off Monday's 1.1161 week low. It slipped under the EMA cluster near 1.1240 and the weekly open at 1.1259 through the Asia session and into London as the USD firmed and Brent held above $100. The Tuesday high at 1.1276 was a rejection below Friday's post-NFP 1.1285, and the lower-highs sequence since has broken the rising line off Monday's low. Price is now testing the 50% fib at 1.1219 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1203, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1259, 1.1276
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 50% fib at 1.1219 exposes the tue low at 1.1203
Failure to hold 1.1203 puts Monday's 1.1161 week low back in play
Reclaim of the ema cluster at 1.1240 and the weekly open at 1.1259 would neutralise the lower-highs read; 1.1276 tue high sits above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read; ECB Accounts Thu 11:30 UTC follow
07:02 UTC
Rebound stalling, back below EMA(20) and EMA(50) · RSI 44 · price 1.1229
Higher lows since Monday's 1.1161 low; Tuesday's 1.1276 a lower high under Friday's 1.1285.
Monday's Asia-session flush to the 1.1161 week low on French and Spanish political stress was fully retraced by Tuesday's London session, as French spreads narrowed. That move topped at the 1.1276 week high, below Friday's 1.1285. Price has since slipped back under EMA(20) and the 1.1259 weekly open during Asia today as DXY reclaimed 102.00, with strong German IP failing to lift the euro. The pair now sits at the session low around 1.1227 on the higher-low trendline, just below the 38.2% level of the week rally fib, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1219, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1242, 1.1259, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 50% fib at 1.1219 breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes Tuesday's 1.1203 low, then the 1.1161 week low
Recovery above EMA(20) near 1.1242 and the 1.1259 weekly open restores the rebound structure, with the week high at 1.1276 the cap
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read via US yields and DXY around 102.00
ECB Accounts Thu 11:30 UTC are the next EUR-side risk to the structure
Lower high at 1.1276 under Friday's 1.1285; rising support from Monday's low broken in Asia.
Monday's Asia-session slump to the 1.1161 week low was fully reversed. The French-budget relief rally ran from the 1.1203 Tuesday low at the London open to a 1.1276 week high by the NY open, a lower high than Friday's 1.1285. That leg faded through the Asian session as DXY reclaimed 102.00, taking price back below the 1.1259 weekly open, below EMA(20) near 1.1243 and through the rising support from Monday's low; price now sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Mon–Tue rally with RSI(14) easing into the mid-40s.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1203, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1243, 1.1259, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 50% fib at 1.1219 exposes the tue low near 1.1203 and the 1.1200 handle
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 1.1259 weekly open would neutralise the Asian-session fade
Rejection again near the 1.1276 week high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Break of the 1.1161 week low would print a fresh lower-low in this window
Eurozone Industrial Production (06:00 UTC) and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher low off 1.1161, lower high under Friday's 1.1285; retesting rally support.
EURUSD flushed to a 1.1161 week low, a 17-month low, in Monday's Asia session. Tuesday's London-led rally, as French spreads narrowed and the dollar eased, reached a 1.1276 week high but stopped short of Friday's post-payrolls 1.1285, leaving lower highs. Wednesday's Asia session has unwound that move to an asian low at 1.1233, back below EMA(20) near 1.1245 and the 1.1259 week open, as US yields recovered; that low sits on the 38.2% fib of the Monday–Tuesday rally and on the higher-low trendline from Monday's low, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s from Tuesday's 60s.
Support: 1.1233, 1.12027, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12448, 1.12587, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1233 asian low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the tuesday low at 1.1203 (61.8% fib zone)
Failure to hold 1.1203 reopens the 1.1161 week low
Reclaiming ema20 and the week open at 1.1259 restores the recovery read; week high 1.1276 and the lower highs line cap above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today, with Eurozone IP at 06:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Renewed OAT-Bund spread widening from ~1.3pts is the main EUR downside driver flagged this week
04:02 UTC
Recovery stalling, pulling back · RSI 39 · price 1.12355
V-recovery from 1.1161 low, now testing rising support.
EUR/USD gapped through to a 17m low at 1.1161 in Monday's Asia session on French fiscal stress. It then retraced the whole drop, and Tuesday's London open drove the leg to the 1.1276 week high as French spreads narrowed and DXY slipped below 102.00. Rejection there was followed by a tight 1.1244–1.1269 NY range. That range gave way in Wednesday's Asia session as DXY retook 102.00, putting price back below the weekly open, the 1.1250 psych level and EMA(20). It now sits on the 38.2% fib of the recovery, which coincides with the rising support line from Monday's low.
Support: 1.1232, 1.1203, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1259, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 38.2% fib at 1.1232 and the rising support line exposes the 1.1203 tuesday low, with the 17m low at 1.1161 beneath
Recovery back above the 1.1250 psych level and the 1.1259 weekly open would put the 1.1276 week high back in focus
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via DXY and the 102.00 zone
ECB Accounts Thu 11:30 UTC and ECB speakers (Cipollone, Vujčić) are two-way event risk for EUR
RSI(14) near 39; a push under 30 alongside a break of rising support would confirm momentum turning lower
03:02 UTC
Recovery from Monday low, pulling back in Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.1238
Higher lows from 1.1161; lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1276 peak.
Monday's Asia session drop to the 1.1161 week low came on French fiscal stress. Tuesday's London session drove the recovery to the 1.1276 week high as French spreads narrowed and DXY slipped under 102.00, but that high met rejection. Early Asia trade has slipped back below the 1.1250 prior close, the 1.1259 week open and EMA(20), and now sits on EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib of the Monday-Tuesday rally. The rising trendline off Monday's low is being retested near 1.1234, with RSI(14) easing to ~40.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1187, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1259, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising trendline (~1.1234) puts the 61.8% fib and Tuesday low at 1.1203 in play, then the Mon NY low at 1.1187
Failure to hold 1.1203 reopens the 1.1161 week low
Reclaim of the 1.1250 prior close and 1.1259 week open would break the lower highs and bring the 1.1276 week high back into focus
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB Accounts Thu 11:30 UTC are the next EUR-specific risk
Higher lows since 1.1161; sideways drift below 1.1276 week high.
Monday's Asia-session flush to the 1.1161 17-month low was fully reversed by late Tuesday London, as narrower French spreads and a softer dollar lifted EUR. That recovery leg topped at the 1.1276 week high, and price has since drifted sideways. In Asia it is slipping back under the 1.1259 weekly open, sitting on EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 52. The 1.1244 london base and the higher-low trendline, which meets the 38.2% fib near 1.1232, define the current structure.
Support: 1.1244, 1.1232, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1259, 1.1276, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1244 london base exposes the higher-low trendline and 38.2% fib near 1.1232
Failure to hold 1.1232 breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.1203 tuesday low back in focus
Reclaim of the 1.1259 weekly open and a close above the 1.1276 week high opens the path to the 1.1285 friday high
EZ Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday; tight range just under the weekly open.
EUR/USD fully retraced Monday's Asia-session slide to the 1.1161 week low. Tuesday's London-open breakout from the 1.1203 tue base extended the rally to a 1.1276 week high as France filed its budget and the dollar eased. Since Tuesday's NY session the pair has compressed in a 1.1244–1.1265 band just below the 1.1259 weekly open, with price hugging EMA(20) near 1.1249, RSI(14) flat around 55, and higher lows from the week low intact along the rising trendline.
Support: 1.12444, 1.12027, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12587, 1.12764, 1.12851
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1276 week high reopens Friday's 1.1285 nfp high
Break of the 1.1244 pullback low exposes the 38.2% Monday rally fib near 1.1232 and the rising trendline
Failure at the 1.1203 tue base would put the 1.1161 week low back in view
Repeated rejection at the 1.1259 weekly open keeps the consolidation read in place
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Accounts Thu 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday's false break, consolidating under lower highs.
Monday's Asia-session false break to the 1.1161 Monday low was fully reversed, and the pair has printed higher lows since. Tuesday's London open drove the push to the 1.1276 Tuesday high as France's budget filing narrowed French spreads and the USD eased back under DXY 102.00. Price is now consolidating around the 1.1259 weekly open, above EMA(20) near 1.1249, with RSI(14) near 61. Tuesday's NY low at 1.1244 held close to the 23.6% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday rally, while the Friday high and Tuesday high form a lower-highs cap overhead.
Support: 1.1244, 1.1203, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1259, 1.1276, 1.1285
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the Tuesday high at 1.1276 and the Friday high at 1.1285 would break the lower-highs cap.
Loss of the NY low at 1.1244 and EMA(20) would put the London base at 1.1203 back in focus.
A break of the higher-lows trendline and 1.1203 would reopen the Monday low at 1.1161.
Industrial Production (06:00 UTC) and the FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read.