Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1273 week high; double top neckline broken.
EUR/USD has fully unwound Wednesday's Asia-session breakout to the 1.1273 week high. A lower high at 1.1268 in Thursday's Asian range preceded a London-led slide that broke the 1.1203–1.1213 neckline of that double top, and the US NFP beat (165K vs 65K) extended the selling in NY to the 1.1131 NFP low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.1167 and is capped by a line of Friday lower highs, with RSI(14) oversold around 25; the post-NFP high at 1.1160 and Tuesday low at 1.1175 form the first resistance layers, and the 1.1200 round number aligns with the 50% fib of the week high–NFP low leg.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1175, 1.1200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1175 Tuesday low and EMA(20) would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1131 NFP low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 1.1100 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1200 round number and 50% fib would neutralise the double top breakdown
A close above the Friday lower highs line near 1.1143 and then the 1.1160 post-NFP high would show the sell-off losing momentum
Fed speakers Mon, US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, ECB's Lane Tue and Eurozone HICP Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1273 peak; Mon-Tue range floor broken.
Wednesday's Asia-session rally to the 1.1273 week high has fully unwound. A string of lower highs through Thursday and Friday Asia gave way to a Friday London slide below the Monday-Tuesday range floor at 1.1175, and the NFP beat (165K vs 65K) extended the drop to a 1.1131 week low. Price is now basing around the 1.1143 nfp base, capped by the 1.1160 nfp bounce high, with EMA(20) near 1.1171 overhead and RSI(14) pinned near 26.
Support: 1.1143, 1.1131, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1175, 1.1200
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1175 range floor, which also aligns with EMA(20), would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.1131 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
Lower-highs trendline and the 50% week fib cluster near the 1.12 zone; a reclaim there would break the week's descending structure
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, with Fed speakers Mon and ECB's Lane/Cipollone Tue, could materially shift this read
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekend close; the nfp base at 1.1143 is the immediate floor being tested
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1273 peak; Tuesday range lost.
EUR/USD has unwound Wednesday's Asia-session rally to 1.1273 through a double top and a run of lower highs. Friday's London selling took out the Tuesday low at 1.1175, and the 165K NFP beat extended the drop to the 1.1131 NFP low during the first hour of NY. The post-data bounce has stalled below the EMA20 near 1.1165, with RSI(14) oversold around 26.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1165, 1.1175, 1.1200
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1175 tue low would return price to the early-week range, with the 38.2% fib near 1.1185 and the 1.1200 round number just above
Lower highs trendline near 1.1200 caps the structure while intact
Failure to hold the 1.1131 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 psych level
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and Lane later Tue, could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg into Friday · RSI 32 · price 1.11534
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1273 peak; Mon–Tue range floor broken.
Wednesday's Asia-session spike to 1.1273 failed to extend. Lower highs printed through Thursday, and Friday's London session broke the 1.1175 range floor that held Monday–Tuesday. The blowout US NFP (165K vs 65K) then extended the slide in NY hours to a 1.1131 low; the post-NFP bounce stalled under 1.1160, with price below EMA(20) near 1.1167 and RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1175, 1.1202
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1175 range floor and EMA(20) would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1131 NFP low exposes the 1.1100 round number
Recovery attempts meet the fib 50% at 1.1202, which aligns with the lower-highs line near 1.1206
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) into the weekend close could shift the post-NFP read
US CPI Tue and EZ HICP Wed are next week's main tests of this structure
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1273 week high; Mon–Tue range low broken.
Wednesday's Asia-to-London breakout set the week high at 1.1273, but Thursday's 1.1268 lower high failed and NY selling ran to the thu low at 1.1203. Since then a lower-highs trendline has capped every bounce. London selling on Friday broke the Mon–Tue range low near 1.1175, and the 165K NFP beat (vs 65K) extended the move to the nfp low at 1.1131. Price is holding below the post-nfp hi at 1.1160 and EMA(20) near 1.1180, with RSI(14) oversold around 24 and the full week's gain retraced.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1175, 1.1203
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1175 range low and EMA(20) would mark Friday's range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1131 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
Post-nfp hi at 1.1160 is the first cap; a recovery through it puts the 1.1203 thu low and the 50% fib of the week high-to-nfp low drop in view
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) today on December-hike conviction could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's peak; Tuesday range floor broken.
Lower highs every session since Wednesday's NY-open peak at 1.1273, with Thursday's 1.1203 low giving way during Friday's London session as risk-off USD demand built. The blowout 165K NFP print extended the slide through the Tuesday low at 1.1175 to an NFP low of 1.1131, leaving price well under EMA(20) near 1.1182 and RSI(14) oversold in the low 20s. Any rebound runs into the old Tuesday low first, then the fib 50% at 1.1202 and the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1175, 1.1202, 1.1235
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the Tuesday low at 1.1175 would turn the post-NFP break into a false break
A close above the 1.1235 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence. The fib 50% at 1.1202 sits on the way
Failure to hold the NFP low at 1.1131 exposes the 1.1100 round number
RSI(14) is oversold with no bullish divergence yet. A higher RSI low on a retest of 1.1131 would flag fading downside momentum
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, then Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NFP-hour drop · RSI 20 · price 1.11431
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1273 peak; Mon–Tue range low broken.
The Wednesday Asia-session rally peaked at 1.1273 in the first hour of NY. Since then the pair has printed lower highs: a London-open rejection near 1.1266 on Thursday, then 1.1235 in Friday's Asia session, as risk-off USD demand and the euro-zone retail sales miss weighed. Friday's London session broke the 1.1175 Tuesday low, and the NFP hour extended the drop to a 1.1142 window low. RSI(14) sits near 20, and price is roughly 40 pips below EMA(20) at 1.1186.
Support: 1.11425, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11632, 1.11748, 1.1186
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1175 Tuesday low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1142 NFP low exposes the 1.1100 round number
1.1163 pre-NFP low is the first overhead marker; price would need to reclaim it and then EMA(20) at 1.1186 to interrupt the move
Reclaiming the 1.1192 lower high, which sits near the 38.2% fib, would break the lower-highs sequence
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT and Fed's Bowman at 17:15 GMT could extend or unwind the NFP move
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into NFP · RSI 26 · price 1.11674
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's peak; Monday–Tuesday range floor broken.
The Wednesday-to-Friday decline from the 1.1273 week high has printed successive lower highs. Thursday's London session and Friday's Asia-to-London run did most of the damage, as risk-off USD demand and the Eurozone Retail Sales miss weighed. Price has slipped beneath the 1.1175 range floor from Monday–Tuesday to a 1.1163 week low and trades under a falling EMA(20) near 1.1192, which capped Friday's London-morning bounce. RSI(14) near 26 is oversold, but the 1.1243 lower high from Thursday's NY session keeps the decline structure intact.
Support: 1.1163, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1175, 1.1192, 1.1243
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (~30 min) could materially shift this read; a soft print is the main risk to the decline structure
H1 close back above the 1.1175 range floor would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1163 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1150 round number
H1 close above the 1.1243 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from Wednesday
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, RSI oversold · RSI 27 · price 1.11728
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.1273 peak.
The Wednesday rally to 1.1273 has fully unwound through a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Safe-haven USD demand after Thursday's tech rout and the soft EZ Retail Sales miss carried the pair below the 1.1175 tuesday low, with a 1.1167 week low printed in Friday's London session. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 27 and in oversold territory, and the 1.1200 round number now sits above the 38.2% fib of the decline.
Support: 1.11672, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11748, 1.1200, 1.12345
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft print as the larger-move risk
H1 close back above the 1.1175 tuesday low turns Friday's break into a false break
Recovery through 1.1200 round number and the lower-highs trendline (~1.1212) challenges the downtrend structure; 1.12345 lower high is the last swing cap
Failure to hold the 1.1167 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1150 psych
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1273 top; Tuesday lows broken.
EUR/USD has fully reversed Wednesday's Asia-session spike, sliding from the 1.1273 week high, which formed a double top with Thursday's 1.1268, as risk-off flows lifted the USD. Friday's London open broke the 1.1175 Tue low and set a new week low at 1.1167, with the eurozone retail sales miss adding pressure. Price is below EMA(20) and EMA(50), every bounce since Thursday has made a lower high under the descending trendline, and RSI(14) near 27 is oversold.
Support: 1.1167, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1175, 1.1200, 1.1244
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a soft print would put the 1.1200 psych/ema20 area back in play
An H1 close back above the 1.1175 Tue low would mark Friday's break as a false break
A close above the 1.1244 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1167 week low exposes the 1.1150 round number
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1273; Mon–Tue range floor broken.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's NY-session peak at 1.1273, with each rebound capped below the EMA(20), now near 1.1200, as safe-haven USD demand from the tech sell-off outweighed the German IP beat. The London open pushed price through the Mon–Tue lows at the 1.1175 tue low to a fresh week low at 1.1167. RSI(14) is in oversold territory near 27 with no divergence yet, and the bounce to 1.1192 faded under the ema20.
Support: 1.1167
Resistance: 1.1175, 1.1200, 1.1244
What it said to watch
US jobs report at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 1.1175 tue low would turn the range break into a false break
Recovery through the ema20 near 1.1200 and the lower highs trendline challenges the downtrend structure
Failure to hold the 1.1167 week low extends the lower-low sequence; 1.1244 thu high caps the last swing
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1273, 1.1200 broken.
EUR/USD has printed a sequence of lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1273 week high, at 1.1268, 1.1244 and Friday's 1.1235 lower high, as haven USD demand built on the Nasdaq sell-off. Asian-session selling took out the 1.1200 psych level and pushed into a new week low at 1.1167 around the London open, a few pips under the Tuesday low near 1.1175. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 29 after a one-sided run.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1167
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1235, 1.1273
What it said to watch
US jobs report at 13:30 UTC (NFP f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.1200 psych and the descending trendline challenges the lower-high sequence
Sustained trade below the 1.1167 week low confirms a fresh lower low beyond the Tuesday low
Lane and Williams both speak at 09:30 UTC, an added headline risk ahead of the data
A recovery through the 1.1235 lower high reopens the 50–61.8% retracement zone toward the week high
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 24 · price 1.11784
Lower highs since Wednesday's week high; election rally fully retraced.
EUR/USD has unwound the whole Asia-session election spike that ran from 1.1180 to the 1.1273 week high on Wednesday. It has printed successive lower highs into a late-Asia low at 1.1167 on Friday as tech-led risk-off and firm US labour data revived the USD. Thursday's evening bounce stalled at 1.1244 and Friday's early bounce at the 1.1235 lower high, both beneath the lower-highs trendline. Price now sits on Tuesday's 1.1175 low, well below EMA(20) near 1.1207, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the week's decline, and RSI(14) near 24 is oversold.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1167
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1235, 1.1273
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.1200 and the ema20/fib zone at 1.1207 would signal the slide from the week high is stalling
Failure to hold the 1.1167 friday low extends the lower-low sequence. The digest flags 1.1132 as the next reference below.
A break of the lower-highs trendline (~1.1220) and the 1.1235 lower high would undercut the downtrend structure
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read. ECB Lane and Fed Williams speak at 09:30 GMT and EZ Retail Sales are due at 10:00 GMT.
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1273, testing Wednesday breakout low.
EUR/USD has given back about 96% of Wednesday's post-midterm Asia-session breakout. Lower highs have formed under the 1.1273 week high since Thursday's London open, as the USD rebound gathered pace on the jobless claims beat and hawkish Fed remarks. The Asian session slide pushed price below the EMA(20) near 1.1211 and the 1.1200 round number, and it is now sitting on the 1.1180 breakout low with RSI(14) oversold near 25. The lower highs line from Thursday's NY high to Friday's Asia high at 1.1235 still caps each bounce.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1211, 1.1235
What it said to watch
US jobs report at 13:30 UTC (NFP f/c 65K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 1.1175 week low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the breakout low
Reclaiming the 1.1200 round number and the EMA(20) would ease the downside structure; a close above the 1.1235 lower high breaks the lower highs line
ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and Eurozone retail sales at 10:00 UTC add pre-NFP event risk during the London session
06:02 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's high, momentum heavy · RSI 31 · price 1.11954
Lower highs and lower lows below EMA(20), back inside Mon–Tue range.
Wednesday's midterm-driven USD selloff lifted the pair out of the Mon–Tue 1.1175–1.1237 range to a 1.1273 week high. Thursday's 1.1268 lower high and the London-session break under 1.1213 completed a double top as USD recovered on firm claims and hawkish Fed remarks, with no lift from hawkish ECB talk. Lower highs at 1.1244 and the 1.1235 lower high have kept price below EMA(20), and Asia session selling has pushed it under the Thursday 1.1203 low, the 1.1200 handle and the 78.6% retrace of the Wednesday rally, with an asia low at 1.1191 and RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.1191, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1235, 1.1273
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1203 thu low and the 1.1200 handle would mark the Asia session dip as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1191 asia low exposes the 1.1175 tue low, the base of the Mon–Tue range
A recovery through the 1.1235 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and weakens the double top read; the 1.1273 week high caps above
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), with ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1273; most of Wednesday impulse retraced.
The post-midterm dollar selloff drove a Wednesday impulse from the 1.1180 impulse base to 1.1273 between the Asia session and NY open. Since then each session has printed a lower high (1.1268, 1.1244, 1.1235) as USD recovered on lower jobless claims and hawkish Fed remarks. Price slipped under the Thu low at 1.1203 during Friday's Asia session and now sits near the 78.6% retracement of the Wednesday impulse, below EMA(20) at about 1.1215 with RSI(14) in the mid-30s rather than oversold.
Support: 1.1191, 1.1180, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1215, 1.1235
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1191 session low exposes the 1.1180 impulse base and the 1.1175 week low from Tuesday
Reclaim of the thu low at 1.1203 and the ema20 near 1.1215 would mark the first stall in the lower-high sequence
Break above the 1.1235 lower high and the descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC
04:01 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's high, below both EMAs · RSI 39 · price 1.1199
Lower highs and lower lows, deep retrace of the election rally.
Wednesday's post-election impulse ran from the 1.1180 rally base in Asia to a 1.1273 peak at the NY open. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 1.1268 on Thursday, then 1.1244 and 1.1235. Thursday's NY session broke the pair to 1.1203 after the firm jobless claims and hawkish Fed remarks, and Friday's Asia session extended to a 1.1197 asia low, near the 78.6% retracement of the rally. Price is capped under EMA(20) near 1.1222, and RSI(14) at 39 has failed to reclaim 50 on each bounce.
Support: 1.1197, 1.1180, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1222, 1.1244
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close back above the thu low at 1.1203 and the ema20 near 1.1222 would stall the lower-low sequence
A move through the 1.1244 lower high and the descending lower-highs line would negate the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1197 asia low and the 1.1180 rally base fully unwinds the election rally and exposes the 1.1175 week low
ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and Eurozone Retail Sales at 10:00 UTC are earlier, smaller risks during the London session
03:01 UTC
Pullback from mid-week high, lower highs since Wednesday · RSI 41 · price 1.1207
Double top 1.1273/1.1268 with price testing the 1.1203 neckline.
The election-led USD sell-off lifted EURUSD from the 1.1175 tue low to 1.1273 on Wednesday. Thursday's Asia-session push stalled at 1.1268, forming a double top. The claims-driven USD recovery then dragged price to the 1.1203 thu low into the NY session. Price is back at that low in the Asia session, below the ema20 near 1.1222 and the 61.8% retracement of the week's impulse. RSI(14) is near 41, and the bounce stalled at a 1.1244 lower high.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1244, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1200 / thu low confirms the double top and exposes the 1.1175 tue low
Reclaim of ema20 and the 1.1244 lower high trendline neutralises the double top read
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the main swing factor for this structure
ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could shift the read ahead of NFP
Lower highs since Wednesday's peak, pressing Thursday's low.
The post-election impulse ran from the 1.1175 Tuesday low to a 1.1273 week high on Wednesday, with most of the gain coming in Wednesday's Asia session. Since then price has printed lower highs at the 1.1268 Thursday high, 1.1243 into Thursday's NY close and the 1.1235 Friday Asia high, as firm US claims data and hawkish Fed remarks rebuilt the dollar. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), through the 61.8% retracement of the post-election impulse and against the Thursday low at 1.1203 just above the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1200, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1223, 1.1235, 1.1268
What it said to watch
H1 close below the thu low at 1.1203 and the 1.1200 round number extends the lower-low sequence toward the tue low at 1.1175
Recovery above the 1.1235 asia high and the lower highs trendline breaks the sequence; ema20 near 1.1223 is the first cap
Thu high at 1.1268 marks the top of the post-election range; a return there needs a soft payroll print
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), with AHE and the jobless rate, could materially shift this read; ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams speak at 09:30 UTC
Double top 1.1268–1.1273, neckline 1.1203–1.1213 tested.
The post-election impulse broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 1.1175–1.1237 range late Tuesday and carried to the 1.1273 week high by Wednesday's NY open. Thursday's London open sold off from just below that, near the 1.1268 thu high, as the USD recovered on firm jobless claims and hawkish Fed remarks. Price now sits at 1.1218, below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and near the 61.8% retracement of the move. A lower-highs line caps rallies, and demand has stepped in twice above the 1.1200 handle, at the 1.1213 wed low and the 1.1203 thu low.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1203, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1203 thu low confirms the double top and opens the 1.1175 tue low
Reclaim of the 1.1237 monday high and the lower-highs line puts the 1.1268 thu high and 1.1273 week high back in play
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a strong print tests the 1.1200 handle
ECB Lane and Fed Williams, both at 09:30 UTC, could move price during London ahead of NFP
1.1203–1.1273 range since Wednesday, with lower highs inside it.
Wednesday's post-midterm surge from 1.1180 in Asia extended to a week high at 1.1273. Supply has since capped the pair at lower highs of 1.1268 and 1.1244, as firmer US claims and hawkish Fedspeak revived the dollar through Thursday's London and NY sessions. Thursday's NY low at 1.1203 held above the 1.1200 handle, with Wednesday's low at 1.1213 just above it. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of Wednesday's rally, fractionally below a flattening EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 1.1229, with RSI(14) neutral around 48.
Support: 1.12128, 1.12028, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.12435, 1.12728
What it said to watch
US NFP, unemployment and earnings at 13:30 UTC Fri are the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close below Thursday's low at 1.1203 and the 1.1200 handle breaks the range floor and exposes Tuesday's low at 1.1175
Close back above the 1.1244 lower high and the EMA(20) would challenge the lower-high sequence and reopen the week high at 1.1273
ECB Lane at 09:30 UTC and Eurozone Retail Sales at 10:00 UTC could move price within the range ahead of NFP