20:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 33 · price 1.12255
Lower highs and lower lows since Feb high.
EUR/USD has been in a downtrend since the February high at 1.1928, with a descending trendline capping each rally in April and August, and the Q3 break below the june low at 1.1324 extending the sequence to a 2026 low at 1.1104 in late October. Price is below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) on W1, a bearish macro regime by that filter. The last five weeks have stalled in a 1.110–1.128 consolidation; this week's test of the recent high at 1.1276 was trimmed after the strong US payrolls print, and RSI near 33 is weak but not at an oversold extreme.
Support: 1.1104, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1324, 1.1419
What it said to watch
- A weekly close above the 1.1276 recent high would be the first break of the consolidation ceiling and puts the june low at 1.1324 back in focus
- A weekly close below the 1.1104 2026 low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 round number
- Only a recovery through the 38.2% fib at 1.1419 would challenge the Feb–Oct downtrend structure
- US CPI (Tue Nov 10) plus Eurozone HICP and ECB speakers (Lane, Cipollone) on Nov 10–11 could shift Fed and ECB December hike pricing and this read