20:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new window lows · RSI 29 · price 1.1024
Lower highs from the Jan 2026 1.2083 peak; Jun–Sep 1.13–1.17 base broken lower.
EURUSD has been in a downtrend since the late-January 2026 high at 1.2083. The lower-highs trendline capped the April and August rallies, and the Jun–Sep base near 1.13 gave way in September. Price sits below the falling EMA(50) at 1.1450, and EMA(20), now at 1.1350, crossed beneath it in early autumn. Both point to a bearish macro regime. This week closed at its week low of 1.1021, through the prior low at 1.1104, as the strong NFP and hot US CPI drove a hawkish Fed repricing; RSI at 28.8 is oversold for the first time in this window, with the 1.1000 psych level directly below.
Support: 1.1021, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1104, 1.1350, 1.1450
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below 1.1000 psych would extend the lower-low sequence into fresh 19-month territory
- A recovery and weekly close back above the 1.1104 prior low would mark this week's break as a false break
- Fed Chair Warsh on Mon 16 Nov and US Retail Sales on Tue 17 Nov could materially shift Fed pricing and this read
- Eurozone CPI on Tue 17 Nov and ECB speakers hinting at hikes beyond December are the main EUR-side counterweight
- A weekly close back above the ema20 at 1.1350 would challenge the downtrend read; the ema50 at 1.1450 is the macro filter