Lower highs from 1.1251, lower lows through 1.1045.
The pair has carved lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1251 rejection. The stronger-than-forecast US CPI drove the leg through the October floor, and the EMA(20) has crossed below a falling EMA(50), with price under both. The latest bar broke the 1.1045 broken low to a new swing low at 1.1026, leaving the 1.1000 psych level as the next marker. RSI at 25.6 is oversold, but with no bullish divergence at the new low, and ATR near 24 pips shows a steady trend rather than a capitulation spike.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1045, 1.10932, 1.1138
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1045 broken low would mark a false break of the swing low
Failure to hold 1.1000 psych extends the lower-low sequence
A retrace of the lower-high leg toward the ema20 at 1.1093 or the ema50 at 1.1138 tests the lower highs trendline
Fed Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC and Tue EZ CPI / US Retail Sales could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence from 1.1273; October floor at 1.1104 broken.
Lower highs since the 1.1273 early-November peak. The hot US CPI print and Fed-hike repricing drove a slide from the 1.1251 lower high through the October floor near 1.1104 to a fresh swing low at 1.1026. EMA20 has crossed below a falling EMA50 and price trades beneath both, while RSI at 25.6 is oversold and ATR(14) holds steady around 24 pips rather than expanding. The prior low at 1.1045 now sits overhead, with the 1.1000 round number the next marker below.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10454, 1.10932, 1.1138
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1045 prior low would mark the latest leg as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the ema20 (1.1093) and the 1.1073 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline
Reclaim of the ema50 near 1.1138, close to the fib 50% at 1.1138, would neutralise the downtrend read
Fed's Jefferson tonight and Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read via Fed-hike pricing
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1273 peak; basing above 1.1044.
Lower highs at 1.1273 and 1.1251 define the descending trendline. The hot US CPI print broke the October floor near 1.1104 and extended the leg to the 1.1044 swing low. Price is now compressing in a tight base capped by the 1.1073 range high, with EMA(20) at 1.1100 below EMA(50) at 1.1143 and both sloping lower. RSI at 29.3 is oversold and only marginally under its 26.2 trough on the prior low, while ATR easing from 28 to 24 pips points to stalling momentum rather than a reversal; this morning's in-line PPI barely moved the pair.
Support: 1.1044, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10726, 1.11001, 1.11425
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1044 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 round number
H4 close above the 1.1073 range high, then the ema20 at 1.1100, would mark a relief squeeze toward the 38.2% fib near 1.1123 and the ema50 at 1.1143
Fed's Bowman and Daly speeches later today could shift 50bp December pricing and break the current base
Fed Chair Warsh speech Mon 16 Nov 17:00 UTC is a high-impact risk for the descending trendline read
Lower highs and lower lows; October floor broken, tight base above swing low.
Successive lower highs at 1.1273, 1.1268 and 1.1251, plus a break of the October floor near 1.1104, define a downtrend. Tuesday's US CPI beat drove the latest leg to a 1.1045 swing low after ema20 crossed below ema50 early in the week. Price is now holding a narrow band just above that low, with ATR(14) easing to 23.6 pips and RSI at 30.8 sitting just above oversold, while ema20 at 1.1105 now overlaps the broken October floor.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.11053, 1.11463, 1.12511
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 1.1045 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 round number.
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, as a hot core print adds to 50bp December Fed pricing.
A recovery above ema20 at 1.1105 (the broken October floor) would ease the downtrend read. ema50 at 1.1146 sits near the 50% fib retracement of the CPI leg.
The lower-highs trendline runs from 1.1273 to the 1.1251 lower high. A close above the 1.1251 lower high breaks the swing sequence.
Lower highs at 1.1273 and 1.1251 set the tone. The hot US CPI print on Tuesday drove the leg down through the 1.1104–1.1131 October floor, which bottomed at a 1.1045 swing low. The prior low at 1.1131 now sits above price. EMA(20) crossed below EMA(50) midweek, and price trades under both, with the ema20 at 1.1110 and the ema50 at 1.1150 sloping lower along the lower-highs line. RSI at 30.9 is just above oversold after dipping to 26.2 at the low, and ATR easing from 28 to 23.8 pips shows the selloff decelerating into the 1.1000 psych level.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.11103, 1.11308, 1.11499
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1045 swing low opens a test of the 1.1000 psych level
H4 close back above the ema20 at 1.1110 and the prior low at 1.1131 would signal a retrace into the 50% fib / ema50 near 1.1150
EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC and US October PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RSI reclaiming the low-40s while the 1.1045 swing low holds would point to downside momentum fading
The 1.1273 high gave way to a lower high at 1.1251. The hot US CPI leg then cut through the october low at 1.1104 and printed a swing low at 1.1045, leaving a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence. EMA(20) crossed below EMA(50) earlier this week and price holds below both, with the ema20 at 1.1116 sloping lower. RSI(14) is at 31.3 after a 26.2 dip that confirmed the new low, so there is no divergence, and ATR(14) holding near 25 pips points to a steady trend extension rather than a volatility spike.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1082, 1.11042, 1.11157
What it said to watch
US PPI later Friday is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 1.1045 swing low exposes the 1.1000 round number
Recovery above the prior lows at 1.1082 and the october low at 1.1104 would mark a deeper retracement of the CPI leg fib
H4 close above the ema20 at 1.1116 challenges the lower-highs sequence
EZ GDP Friday morning is a secondary risk for the euro side