Lower highs and lower lows after a break below the multi-week range floor.
Price spent most of the window in a 1.1104–1.1273 range. It then failed at a lower high near 1.1251 and broke the range floor after the hot US CPI print widened rate differentials against the euro. Since then it has printed lower lows at 1.1082, 1.1066 and the 1.1045 swing low, beneath the digest's 1.1066 reference. The EMA20 has crossed below a falling EMA50, with price under both. RSI at 29.3 is oversold and made a new low alongside price, so there is no divergence. ATR near 25 pips is steady rather than expanding, which points to an orderly grind lower.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10822, 1.11042, 1.11215
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1104 range floor would turn the breakdown into a false break
Reclaiming the 1.1082 prior low and the ema20 at 1.1122 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1045 swing low exposes the 1.1000 round number
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC and Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Eurozone Q3 GDP and HICP Friday morning are secondary event risk for the euro leg
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and extending · RSI 26 · price 1.10467
Lower highs at 1.1273/1.1268/1.1251, range floor broken.
Since 1.1273, the pair has printed lower highs at 1.1268 and 1.1251. The hot US CPI beat then drove a dollar-led leg that broke the 1.1104 range floor and the 1.1066 low, and price is now near a fresh 1.1045 swing low. EMA(20) crossed back below EMA(50) during the slide, and price sits under both. ATR(14) has edged up to 26.9 pips, so the move is extending rather than compressing. RSI at 26.2 is oversold without bullish divergence: its lows have tracked price lower, and the 1.1000 psych level is about 45 pips below.
Support: 1.1045, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1066, 1.1104, 1.11284
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1045 swing low exposes the 1.1000 psych level
H4 close back above the 1.1066 broken low, then the 1.1104 range floor, would mark the breakdown as a false break
Retracement into the ema20 at 1.1128, close to the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg, is the zone to monitor for rejection
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Schmid/Williams tonight could materially shift this read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major catalyst for the trend
Lower highs at 1.1273 and 1.1251; lower low at 1.1066.
EUR/USD has rolled over into a lower-high, lower-low sequence. The rally stalled at 1.1251, below the 1.1273 peak, and the hot US CPI print then broke the 1.1104 prior low, with selling extending to a 1.1066 swing low on wider rate spreads. EMA(20) has crossed below EMA(50) with price under both, while RSI at 32.6 has lifted off sub-30 readings and ATR(14) holding near 25 pips shows no fresh expansion.
Support: 1.1066, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1104, 1.1137, 1.1166
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1104 prior low would ease the breakdown; ema20 at 1.1137 sits near the 38.2% fib just above
Close above ema50 at 1.1166 and the lower highs line would neutralise the downtrend read
Break of the 1.1066 swing low exposes the 1.1000 round number
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC today and Friday's US PPI could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending below the multi-week range · RSI 34 · price 1.10942
Lower highs from 1.1273 and 1.1251; range low at 1.1104 broken, fresh swing low 1.1066.
The hot US CPI print turned the three-week 1.1104-1.1273 range into a downtrend. The 1.1251 lower high rolled over and price broke the range low at 1.1104 to a fresh swing low at 1.1066, with EMA(20) crossing below EMA(50) and both now sloping lower above price. RSI has lifted back to 33.6 after dipping below 30, and ATR(14) has eased to 24.7 pips, so the slide is losing pace near the swing low rather than accelerating.
Support: 1.10661, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.11042, 1.11421, 1.11694
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1104 range low would mark the break as a possible false break and puts the ema20 at 1.1142 in focus
Failure to hold the 1.1066 swing low exposes the 1.1000 psych level
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean risks a squeeze toward the 61.8% retracement of the CPI leg near 1.1180
US PPI Friday 13:30 UTC; a hot core print would test the 1.1000 psych
Lower highs trendline from 1.1273 caps the structure; the ema50 at 1.1169 is the upper boundary of the bearish read
06:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 29 · price 1.10805
Lower highs from 1.1273; range floor 1.1104 broken, new lower low 1.1066.
The multi-week 1.1104–1.1273 range gave way after the hot US CPI beat triggered a CPI selloff from the 1.1251 lower high. The descending line of lower highs from 1.1273 caps the structure, and the old range floor at 1.1104 now sits overhead with the swing low at 1.1066 marking the new lower low. Price trades below both EMAs following a bearish ema20/ema50 cross; RSI at 28.9 is oversold while ATR holds steady near 25 pips rather than expanding.
Support: 1.10661, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.11042, 1.11471, 1.12511
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1104 range floor would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1066 swing low exposes the 1.1000 round number
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.1147 would mark the first lower-high challenge since the CPI selloff
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US core PPI on Friday 13:30 UTC is the next high-impact test for the move
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and a fresh lower low · RSI 31 · price 1.10964
Three-week range floor broken; lower high at 1.1251 then new low at 1.1082.
The hot US CPI beat reversed EURUSD from a lower high at 1.1251, below the 1.1273 swing top. The pair then cut through the 1.1104 range floor that had held for three weeks and printed a swing low at 1.1082. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1154, which has crossed under the EMA(50) at 1.1176. RSI is at 31.3 after briefly slipping under 30, and ATR(14) has eased to 24.1 pips from near 30, so the selloff is losing range rather than accelerating.
Support: 1.1082, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1104, 1.1154, 1.1251
What it said to watch
H4 closes back above the 1.1104 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1082 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 round number
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.1154, near the 50% retracement of the CPI leg, would challenge the downtrend read
Lagarde (Thu 19:30 UTC) and US Core PPI (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read