22:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending to fresh lows · RSI 35 · price 1.10556
Lower highs since August high; six-week range broken lower.
EURUSD has carried a lower-high sequence since the August high near 1.1711. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1180 and EMA(50) at 1.1273, the latter capping the top of the early-October to early-November range. This week the hot US CPI print and hawkish Fed repricing pushed price through the 1.1104 range floor to a new low at 1.1045, with ATR expanding to 70 pips and RSI at 35.2, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.11042, 1.11795, 1.12729
What it said to watch
- A daily close back above the 1.1104 range floor would turn this week's range break into a false break
- A daily close below the 1.1000 round number extends the lower-low chain beyond the new low at 1.1045
- US PPI on Friday plus Williams and Bowman remarks could materially shift this read; a hot print adds to 50bp Fed pricing
- Recovery through ema20 at 1.1180 would be the first daily close above the descending line's EMA filter since early November
- Range top at 1.1273, now aligned with ema50, marks the level the downtrend read rests on