22:01 UTC
Downtrend, range broken lower · RSI 38 · price 1.10893
Five-week 1.1104–1.1276 range lost on a daily close; lower high at 1.1251.
Since the mid-September breakdown from the 1.1650s, EURUSD has held below a steadily falling EMA(50), now 1.1282 and just above the 1.1276 range top, retracing most of the move off the August high at 1.1711. Tuesday's hot US CPI beat produced a rejection from 1.1251, a lower high inside the five-week range. Wednesday then closed at 1.1089, below the 1.1104 range floor, with a new low at 1.1082 and ATR expanding to 71 pips. RSI at 37.6 is soft but not oversold, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1082, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1104, 1.11925, 1.1276
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 1.1104 range floor would turn today's break into a false break
- Acceptance below the 1.1082 new low leaves the 1.1000 psych level as the next reference
- Recovery through the ema20 at 1.1193 would put the 1.1276 range top back in focus
- Lagarde Thu 19:30 GMT and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read