Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1251 high; tight base below broken 1.1100.
The week opened at 1.1137 and London lifted price to 1.1251 on Tuesday, but the hot US CPI print reversed the move in NY hours. Wednesday's NY session extended the slide through the 1.1100 range floor to a week low at 1.1082. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1118 and EMA(50) at 1.1150, with RSI(14) oversold at 23.4 and ATR easing to 10 pips as a tight consolidation forms under 1.1100.
Support: 1.1082, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.11183, 1.1137
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1100 range floor opens a retracement toward the ema20 at 1.1118 and the 38.2% fib of the Tue-Wed drop near 1.1147
Failure to hold the 1.1082 week low confirms a lower low, with the 1.1050 round number the next reference
A move back above the 1.1137 weekly open would erase the week's net decline
Thursday's US jobless claims, the Fed-speaker slate and Lagarde at 19:30 GMT could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after breakdown · RSI 22 · price 1.10882
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1251 top; tight consolidation above the 1.1082 week low.
The rally from the 1.1137 weekly open to Tuesday's 1.1251 high fully reversed after the hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session. Wednesday's NY open then extended the slide through the 1.1100 broken floor to a 1.1082 week low. Price sits below both falling EMAs (ema20 1.1121, ema50 1.1152), and RSI(14) at 22.3 is oversold after a 14 trough, with no divergence printed since price has not made a new low. Since the low, H1 has compressed into a 1.1085–1.1099 consolidation as ATR eases from 12.3 to 10.5 pips.
Support: 1.10822, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.11214, 1.11374
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 1.1100, the broken floor, would turn Wednesday's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1082 week low exposes the 1.1050 round number
The ema20 near 1.1121 lines up with the 23.6% retracement of the CPI leg and is the first reclaim test on any bounce, with the weekly open at 1.1137 above it
Thursday's Fed-speak slate and Lagarde, then Friday's US PPI, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's CPI reversal; range break below 1.1100, now basing above week low.
The week's high at 1.1251 reversed in the NY session on Tuesday after the hot US CPI beat, and the post-CPI drop has printed lower highs since. Wednesday's push in the first hour of NY broke the weekly open and the 1.1100 range floor, reaching a week low at 1.1082. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 23, oversold, while ATR has eased to 10.8 pips as price compresses in a tight 1.1085–1.1099 band just under 1.1100.
Support: 1.10822, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.11249, 1.11374
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1100 range floor would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1082 week low exposes the 1.1050 psych level
Reclaim of ema20 (1.1125) and the lower highs trendline near the 1.1137 weekly open would end the post-CPI sequence
US jobless claims and Lagarde on Thursday, then US PPI later this week, could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after second-day leg lower · RSI 21 · price 1.10884
Lower highs since Tuesday's week high; range floor broken.
Monday's rally to the 1.1251 week high fully reversed after Tuesday's hot US CPI. Wednesday's leg through the London-NY transition then took price below the 1.1100 range floor to a 1.1082 week low, well beneath the weekly open at 1.1137. Price holds below a falling ema20 (1.1129) and ema50 with the lower highs intact. RSI(14) at 21.3 is oversold after bottoming at 14, and the bounce from the week low has stayed shallow and capped under 1.1100.
Support: 1.10822, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.11285, 1.11374
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1100 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1082 week low exposes the 1.1000 round number
Recovery through the 1.1129 ema20 toward the weekly open would be the first meaningful retracement of the drop from the week high
US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 UTC onward, then Lagarde 19:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fri core PPI 13:30 UTC is the key USD catalyst for the week
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 22 · price 1.10925
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.1251 high; 1.1104 floor broken.
Monday's rally from the 1.1137 weekly open was rejected at 1.1251 early in Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI print then drove the first leg lower in NY hours. Today London and the NY open extended the slide through the weekly open and the 1.1104 broken floor to a 1.1082 week low, with lower highs intact throughout. Price sits below both a falling EMA(20) at 1.1133 and EMA(50) at 1.1160, with RSI(14) at 22 oversold after a 14 trough, ATR(14) expanding to 11.6 pips, and the post-low bounce stalling near 1.1093, just under the broken floor.
Support: 1.10822, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1104, 1.11326, 1.11374
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1104 broken floor would turn the break into a false break of the range floor
Failure to hold the 1.1082 week low exposes the 1.1000 round number
Recovery above ema20 at 1.1133 and the weekly open at 1.1137 would end the lower highs sequence
A lower low with RSI(14) holding above its 14 trough would flag bullish divergence
US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 UTC, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from Tuesday's 1.1251 high; prior-week low and 1.1104 broken.
EUR/USD has unwound Monday's rally from the 1.1137 weekly open, rejecting from the 1.1251 Tuesday London-open high before the hot US CPI beat drove a NY-session drop. Wednesday extended the move: London broke the 1.1131 prior wk low, and NY hours took out the 1.1104 low for a fresh week low at 1.1082. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1141 and EMA(50) at 1.1166, with ATR(14) expanding to 12.3 pips and RSI(14) oversold at 23 after a 14 print, so the latest bounce comes from stretched conditions rather than a structural turn.
Support: 1.10822, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1104, 1.11308, 1.11414
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the broken 1.1104 low would mark a false break; acceptance below keeps the lower-low sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.1082 week low exposes the 1.1000 round number
A recovery through ema20 at 1.1141, which overlaps the 1.1131 prior wk low and the 38.2% of the Tue high-week low fib, would break the lower-highs trendline
ECB Economic Bulletin Thu 09:00 UTC, US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read, with Friday's core PPI the larger risk
Lower highs from Tuesday high; post-CPI range broken lower.
Monday's rally from the 1.1137 weekly open failed at the 1.1251 Tuesday high in London. The hot US CPI print then drove a NY-session leg to 1.1145, and after a 1.1150–1.1170 range through Asia, today's slide broke the 1.1131 Friday low and the 1.1104–1.1110 prior floor into the first hours of NY, printing a 1.1082 session low. Price sits below a falling ema20 at 1.1146 and the EMA(50) at 1.1169, with RSI(14) at 14 deeply oversold and ATR(14) up to 12 pips from 9, while the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday high-to-low leg lines up with the ema20 under the lower highs trendline.
Support: 1.10822, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1107, 1.11308, 1.11462
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1110 prior floor would turn today's range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1082 session low leaves the 1.1000 round number as the next reference
A fresh price low with a higher RSI(14) low would flag bullish divergence from oversold
Reclaim of the 1.1131 Friday low and ema20 near 1.1146 (38.2% fib) would challenge the lower highs sequence
US Jobless Claims and dense Fedspeak Thu from 13:30 UTC, then core PPI Fri, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's high; range floor broken.
Monday's climb from the 1.1137 weekly open peaked at 1.1251 in Tuesday's London session, before the hot US CPI beat erased the whole move. Wednesday's London session extended the post-CPI sell-off through the weekly open and last week's 1.1131 lows to 1.1096, below the 1.1104 range floor of the five-week band, with in-line German HICP offering no relief. Price trades under a falling EMA(20) at 1.1153 and EMA(50) at 1.1172, a lower-highs line has capped every bounce, ATR(14) is lifting to 11.3 pips and RSI(14) is oversold at 17.2.
Support: 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1104, 1.11374, 1.11527
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 1.1104 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below 1.1100 leaves the 1.1000 psych level as the next reference
A recovery through the 1.1137 weekly open and EMA(20) at 1.1153 would break the lower-highs sequence
RSI(14) at 17.2 is oversold; a higher RSI low on a fresh price low would flag bullish divergence
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC Thu and Fed speakers (Hammack 14:00 UTC) could shift this read; core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at the week low · RSI 26 · price 1.11356
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1251 high; retesting Friday's 1.1131 low.
Tuesday's hot US CPI print reversed Monday's rally. Price fell about 80 pips from the 1.1251 London high to 1.1145 during NY hours. After the Asian high at 1.1170 capped the overnight bounce, London today extended to 1.1131, retesting Friday's week low and slipping below the 1.1137 week open. Price sits below the falling EMA(20) at 1.1160 and EMA(50) at 1.1177, with RSI(14) at 26 in oversold territory and no divergence against Tuesday's post-CPI low.
Support: 1.11305, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11374, 1.11605, 1.11698
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 1.1137 week open and the 1.1160 ema20 would ease the lower-low read
Acceptance below the 1.1131 week low exposes the 1.1110 range floor
A break of the lower highs trendline through the 1.1170 asian high would be needed to shift the H1 structure
Thu US jobless claims 13:30 UTC, Fedspeak and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC, then Fri US PPI, could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at week open · RSI 28 · price 1.11378
Lower highs since Tuesday, overnight range broken lower.
EUR/USD has unwound Monday's whole climb and sits back at the weekly open. The slide from Tuesday's 1.1251 week high sped up on the hot US CPI beat and extended in the London session today, with in-line German HICP offering the euro no support. Price broke the overnight range base near 1.1150 and is pressing last week's low at 1.1131, below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1163 and EMA(50) at 1.1178, with RSI(14) oversold at 27.7 and ATR re-expanding off 9.3 pips.
Support: 1.11308, 1.1110, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.11632, 1.12511
What it said to watch
H1 close below the prior wk low at 1.1131 exposes the 1.1110 floor and the 1.1100 psych level
Recovery above the 1.1150 range base and the ema20 at 1.1163 would neutralise today's breakdown
A rebound into the 38.2% fib of the week-high drop near 1.1177, alongside EMA(50), is the first test of supply
A break above the lower-highs line from Tuesday's week high would end the downtrend sequence
RSI(14) holding a higher low on a fresh price low would mark bullish divergence near the floor
Lagarde (Thu 19:30 UTC) and Friday's US Core PPI (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 26 · price 1.11376
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1251 top; London broke the Asian range.
Monday's rally to Tuesday's 1.1251 London high has fully unwound in the CPI sell-off that followed the hot US print. London extended the slide today, breaking the 1.1158-1.1170 Asian range and taking price back to the 1.1137 weekly open, with a test of the 1.1131 Friday low through the Lagarde window. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1166 and EMA(50) at 1.1180, and ATR is edging back up to 10.4 pips. RSI(14) at 25.9 is oversold but has made a lower low alongside price, so there is no bullish divergence.
Support: 1.11308, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11448, 1.11657, 1.1180
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1131 Friday low opens the 1.1110 range floor
Reclaim of the 1.1145 CPI low and the EMA(20) at 1.1166 would stall the lower-high sequence
EMA(50) at 1.1180 near the 38.2% of the CPI sell-off is the next cap on any rebound
Reaction to Lagarde's remarks and Thursday's Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Monday's relief rally from the 1.1134 week low to Tuesday's London-open week high at 1.1251 has nearly fully reversed. The Tuesday drop was driven by hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%) and the NY session after it, and today's London open extended it to a 1.1139 day low, just under Tuesday's 1.1145 low. Price sits below a falling ema20 at 1.1169 and the ema50 at 1.1182, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday drop, while RSI(14) at 30 holds a higher low against Tuesday's 27, a mild bullish divergence as ATR(14) compresses to 9.9 pips.
Support: 1.1139, 1.11344, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11686, 1.11818, 1.12511
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 09:45 UTC and could materially shift this read; a hawkish tone would put the ema20 at 1.1169 back in play
H1 close below the 1.1134 week low erases Monday's rally and exposes the 1.1100 range floor
H1 close back above the ema50 at 1.1182 (38.2% fib) would break the lower-low sequence since the week high
Failure of the RSI higher low to hold on a new day low cancels the divergence read
Monday's oil-driven relief rally from the 1.1137 week open stalled with a rejection at the 1.1251 week high on Tuesday. The hot US CPI print then drove a 106-pip slide into NY hours to the 1.1145 cpi low, and the move confirmed an ema cross, with EMA(20) at 1.1171 now below EMA(50) at 1.1183. The Asia session recovery was capped near 1.1170, right at the ema20 and the 23.6% retrace, and the London open has pressed price back to the 1.1150 day low, with RSI(14) at 33 off a post-CPI 27 trough and ATR compressing to 9.3 pips.
Support: 1.11502, 1.11448, 1.11374
Resistance: 1.11708, 1.11831, 1.12511
What it said to watch
ECB Nagel in ~15 min and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read; a December-hike endorsement from Lagarde tests the lower highs
H1 close below the 1.1145 cpi low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1137 week open
H1 close back above the 1.1171 ema20 breaks the post-CPI lower highs and brings the 1.1183 ema50 into play
Failure to clear the 23.6% retrace of the CPI drop keeps the consolidation read intact
Lower high at 1.1251 below Thursday's 1.1266, then a CPI breakdown into a tight 25-pip base above 1.1145.
Monday's oil-driven bounce from the 1.1137 weekly open stalled at the 1.1251 week high around Tuesday's London open. The hot US CPI print then drove a roughly 100-pip slide to the 1.1145 cpi low during the first hours of NY trade. Since then price has held a narrow band capped near the 23.6% retracement of the CPI drop at 1.1170, with a line of lower highs pressing down from the week high. It also sits beneath a falling ema20 (1.1174) and ema50 (1.1186), while ATR(14) has compressed to 9.3 pips and RSI(14) has recovered from 27 to 36 without reaching 40.
Support: 1.1145, 1.1137, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.1186, 1.1251
What it said to watch
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could break the current compression either way
H1 close below the 1.1145 cpi low exposes the 1.1137 weekly open and the 1.1131 friday low
H1 close above the ema20 at 1.1174 and the lower highs line would mark a first recovery from the CPI drop
Reclaiming the ema50 at 1.1186, near the 38.2% CPI drop fib, would challenge the downtrend read toward the 1.1251 week high
Post-CPI lower low, tight Asian range below EMA20.
Monday's rebound from the weekly open at 1.1134 stalled at the 1.1251 week high in Tuesday's London session, and the hot US CPI beat then drove a 100-pip NY-session slide to the 1.1145 cpi low. Since then price has held a narrow Asian range of 1.1158-1.1170, below a falling EMA(20) at 1.11758 and EMA(50) at 1.11865. RSI(14) has climbed back to 38.8 from a sub-30 low, and ATR has compressed from 13.7 to 9.4 pips, a pause rather than renewed selling.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11758, 1.11865, 1.12511
What it said to watch
German final HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (09:45 UTC) could break the compressed Asian range
H1 close above the ema20 at 1.1176 and the ema50 at 1.1187, near the 38.2% of the CPI drop fib, would ease the post-CPI downtrend read
Loss of the 1.1158 asian low exposes the 1.1145 cpi low, then the 1.1134 weekly open
Friday's US PPI and Thursday's Fed speakers remain the next USD risk beyond today
Tuesday's CPI leg erased Monday's rally; tight Asian range sits below both EMAs.
Monday's rally off the 1.1134 week low topped at 1.1251 into Tuesday's London open. The hot US CPI print in NY hours then drove a 106-pip CPI leg down to the 1.1145 CPI low, unwinding nearly all of the week's gains, and ema20 crossed below ema50 during the slide. Price has since compressed in a 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range beneath a falling ema20 (1.1177) and ema50 (1.1187), with RSI(14) recovering from sub-30 to 36.6 and ATR easing to 9.8 pips as the higher lows trendline from the CPI low holds.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11698, 1.11769, 1.11874
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1170 asian high and ema20 at 1.1177 would mark the first reclaim of the CPI leg; ema50 at 1.1187 sits near its 38.2% retracement
Break of the 1.1158 asian low and the higher lows trendline reopens the 1.1145 CPI low
Failure to hold the 1.1145 CPI low exposes the 1.1134 week low and a full retrace of Monday's rally
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could break the Asian range compression
Impulsive lower high-to-low leg, now tight Asian consolidation below EMAs.
Tuesday's London-open week high at 1.1251 gave way to a two-session slide, and the hot US CPI beat accelerated it through 1.1200 in NY hours to a 1.1145 CPI low, erasing most of Monday's climb off the 1.1134 week low. Since then price has compressed in an Asian range between the 1.1158 Asian low and the 1.1170 Asian high, a level that matches the 23.6% retracement of the week high-to-CPI low drop. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1178 and EMA(50) at 1.1188. RSI(14) has lifted from 27 to 38 and ATR(14) has eased to 9.9 pips from 13.7, which reads as compression after the impulse rather than a turn.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11698, 1.11784, 1.12511
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1170 asian high and the ema20 at 1.1178 would break the post-CPI consolidation to the upside
Reclaim of the 38.2% fib near 1.1185, alongside the EMA(50) at 1.1188, would neutralise the downtrend read
Failure at the 1.1158 asian low exposes the 1.1145 cpi low; a close below it opens the 1.1134 week low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read in the London session
A return toward the 1.1251 week high would need a USD reversal, given the CPI-driven Fed repricing
Lower high at 1.1251, post-CPI low 1.1145, tight Asia range below falling EMAs.
Monday's rebound from the 1.1134 week low ran into Tuesday's London session at the 1.1251 week high, with RSI(14) at 78, before the hot US CPI beat triggered a sharp rejection that took the pair to a 1.1145 post-CPI low and dragged EMA(20) below EMA(50). Since then price has held a narrow Asia session range above the 1.1158 Asia low, below a falling ema20 at 1.1180 and ema50 at 1.1189. RSI(14) has recovered from 27 to 39.6 and ATR(14) has eased from 13.7 to 10.1 pips, showing the CPI selling pressure has faded.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11798, 1.11893, 1.12511
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 1.1180 and the ema50 at 1.1189 (near the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop) would challenge the post-CPI downtrend read
Break below the Asia low at 1.1158 and then the 1.1145 post-CPI low exposes the 1.1134 week low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery toward the 1.1251 week high would need the 61.8% fib at 1.1211 to give way first
01:01 UTC
Downtrend since CPI, bounce stalling below EMAs · RSI 37 · price 1.11652
Lower high at 1.1251, lows clustered 1.1131-1.1145.
Monday's steady climb from the 1.1134 week low was rejected at 1.1251 at Tuesday's London open, a lower high against Thursday's 1.1268. The hot US CPI print in NY hours then erased the move in four bars down to the 1.1145 CPI low. The Asia session has compressed into a 1.1162-1.1170 consolidation, with the Asia high capping just under the 23.6% fib of the CPI drop. Price sits below the EMA(20) at 1.1181 and the EMA(50) at 1.1190, and both are now sloping lower; RSI(14) has lifted from 27 to 37 and ATR(14) has eased to 10 pips from 13.7.
Support: 1.11448, 1.11344, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11696, 1.1181, 1.12511
What it said to watch
German final HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (09:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1170 Asia high and the 1.1181 ema20 would mark the first reclaim since the CPI drop, with the 1.1190 ema50 next
Failure to hold the 1.1145 CPI low exposes the 1.1134 week low and the rising-lows trendline, with the 1.1100 range floor below
An H1 close above the lower-highs line near the 1.1251 week high would break the lower-high sequence
London on Tuesday pushed above Monday's 1.1224 high to a Tuesday high of 1.1251 with RSI(14) overbought near 78. The move failed, and the hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a 106-pip slide to the 1.1145 CPI low during NY hours. Since then price has held a tight 1.1152–1.1170 consolidation below the EMA(20) at 1.1183 and the EMA(50) at 1.1191, which now line up with the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop. RSI has recovered to 38.5 from oversold and ATR is easing from 13.7 to 10.4 pips, while the weekly open at 1.1137 and the Friday low at 1.1131 sit just beneath, with Thursday's 1.1268 and Tuesday's highs forming a lower-highs line.
Support: 1.11448, 1.11374, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11826, 1.11912, 1.12511
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.1183 and the 38.2% CPI drop fib marks the first recovery from the slide; ema50 at 1.1191 sits just above
Failure to hold the CPI low at 1.1145 exposes the weekly open at 1.1137 and the Friday low at 1.1131
German final HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (09:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
A close above the Tuesday high at 1.1251 breaks the lower-highs line from Thursday