EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 10 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:01 UTC
Down from week high, post-CPI consolidation · RSI 35 · price 1.11657
Lower highs from Thursday; Monday rally retraced ~90% after US CPI.
Hot US CPI in Tuesday's NY session reversed Monday's grind from 1.1134 to the 1.1251 week high. The drop went back through 1.1200 to a 1.1145 CPI low, retracing roughly 90% of the rally. Price is now consolidating near 1.1165 below both EMA(20) at 1.1184 and EMA(50) at 1.1192, with RSI(14) recovering to 35 from a 27 oversold dip and ATR easing to 10.7 pips from 13.7. Tuesday's London-open rejection at 1.1251 came in below Thursday's 1.1268 high, so the lower-highs line from Thursday remains intact.
Support: 1.11448, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11841, 1.1200, 1.12511
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.1184 would challenge the post-CPI downside read; the 1.1200 pivot is the next cap above it.
Failure to hold the 1.1145 CPI low exposes the 1.1134 Monday low, and a break there gives a lower low for the week.
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could extend or fade the post-CPI dollar bid.
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read.
A move above the 1.1251 week high would break the lower-highs line.
Monday rally rejected at the week high; CPI bar broke the rising trendline; basing above the CPI low.
Monday's rebound from the 1.1134 week low built a rising trendline and peaked at the 1.1251 week high in the first hour of London Tuesday, where RSI(14) hit 78 before a rejection. The hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3%) then broke that trendline during NY hours and pushed the pair to a 1.1145 CPI low, with ATR expanding and RSI touching 27. Price now sits below a rolling-over EMA(20) at 1.1186 and EMA(50) at 1.1193 in a tight late-session consolidation, and RSI has only recovered to 35.
Support: 1.11448, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11862, 1.11933, 1.12511
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 1.1186 and ema50 at 1.1193 would put the 38.2–50% fib retrace and the 1.1200 pivot in play
Failure to hold the 1.1145 cpi low exposes the 1.1134 week low and Monday's open
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC; a 50bp-hike tone could extend the post-CPI leg
German final HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (09:45 UTC) Wednesday could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the week high at 1.1251 would negate the CPI rejection
Monday rebound almost fully retraced; lower highs since Thursday.
Tuesday's hot US CPI print erased Monday's rebound. After a rejection at the 1.1251 tuesday high early in London, the NY session drove a 106-pip slide to the 1.1145 cpi low, about 91% of the Monday rally fib. Price now sits below both EMA(20) at 1.1189 and EMA(50) at 1.1195 after a fresh bearish ema cross, with RSI(14) recovering to 34.6 from 27 and ATR easing to 11.9 pips. The 1.1251 high sits under Thursday's 1.1268 on the lower highs line, and the 1.1134 monday low marks the floor of the week.
Support: 1.11448, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11886, 1.11945, 1.12511
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1145 cpi low exposes the 1.1134 monday low and Friday's 1.1131 low
An H1 close back above ema20 at 1.1189 and ema50 at 1.1195 would undercut the post-CPI breakdown read
A break above the 1.1251 tuesday high would breach the lower highs line
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Euro-area HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC Wednesday are the next EUR-side risk
Lower high at 1.1251, impulsive drop to 1.1145, shallow rebound.
Monday's rebound from the 1.1134 weekly open, helped by falling oil, stalled at the 1.1251 week high at Tuesday's London open. Waller's hawkish remarks marked a rejection there, and the hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3%) then drove the pair through Monday's rising trendline to a 1.1145 CPI low. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with EMA(20) crossing under EMA(50) and ATR expanding to 12.5 pips. RSI(14) has lifted from 27 to 35.3, but the late NY bounce is stalling below 1.1170, short of the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop near 1.1185.
Support: 1.11448, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11913, 1.11958, 1.12511
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.1191 and the ema50 at 1.1196 would neutralise the post-CPI downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1145 cpi low exposes the monday low at 1.1134 and the friday low at 1.1131
Bowman speeches at 20:30 and 23:30 UTC could extend or fade the CPI-driven USD move
Eurozone HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (09:45 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
A retest from below of Monday's broken trendline near 1.1200 would confirm the trendline as resistance; a hold back above it would weaken the downtrend read
Week high at 1.1251 remains the swing level that defines the lower high
19:01 UTC
Downtrend resumed, small bounce off lows · RSI 34 · price 1.11629
Monday's oil-driven climb from the weekly open near 1.1137 pushed through the Monday high at London open Tuesday to a tuesday high of 1.1251 with RSI(14) at 78, then reversed on Waller's hawkish remarks and broke down after the hot US CPI print during NY hours, giving back the whole move to a tuesday low of 1.1145. Price now sits below both EMAs, with EMA(20) at 1.1194 rolling over beneath EMA(50) at 1.1197, while ATR has expanded to 13.1 pips. RSI(14) has lifted from 27 to 33.9 on a modest bounce, which has retraced less than a quarter of the decline so far.
Support: 1.11448, 1.11374, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.1194, 1.12245, 1.12511
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the tuesday low at 1.1145 exposes the weekly open at 1.1137 and the friday low at 1.1131
An H1 close back above the ema20 / 1.1200 cluster (also the 50% fib) would weaken the post-CPI downtrend read
Monday high at 1.1224 and the tuesday high at 1.1251 mark where the false break was rejected
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could extend or unwind the post-CPI USD move
Eurozone HICP Wed 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Monday's rally almost fully retraced; lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1251 peak.
Monday's oil-driven rally from 1.1134 topped at the 1.1251 week high early in Tuesday's London session, with RSI(14) at 78 before a rejection around Waller's remarks. The hot US CPI print then drove a ~70-pip NY session leg that erased most of the week's gains. Price now sits below EMA(20) at 1.1197 and EMA(50) at 1.1198, which have just crossed lower, with RSI(14) oversold at 29.5 and ATR expanding to 13.3 pips. The session low at 1.1145 and the Monday low at 1.1134 are the nearest supports. The 38.2% fib of Tuesday's drop at 1.1185 is the first upside reference.
Support: 1.11448, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11854, 1.11973, 1.12511
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1131 friday low would take price under the window's lowest point and Monday's open
Recovery through the 38.2% fib at 1.1185 and back above the ema20 / 1.1200 cluster would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC framing 25bp vs 50bp for December could extend or unwind the CPI move
Eurozone HICP Wed 07:00 UTC (YoY f/c 2.8%) and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Retest of the 1.1251 week high would be needed to reopen the Monday-Tuesday rally structure
Monday's rally almost fully retraced; unbroken lower highs from 1.1251.
EUR/USD has given back nearly all of Monday's 1.1134–1.1251 advance in one session. Tuesday's London-open high at 1.1251 met rejection around Waller's remarks, then the hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove the main leg in the first hours of NY, breaking Monday's late range and the monday trendline. Price now sits below both EMA(20) at 1.1202 and EMA(50) at 1.1200, which are converging on the 1.1200 handle, while RSI(14) has dropped from 78 to an oversold 27 and ATR(14) has expanded to 13.7 pips from 8.3; the session low at 1.1145 is roughly 10 pips above the monday low.
Support: 1.11448, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11854, 1.12016, 1.12511
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1134 monday low and the 1.1131 prior wk low would confirm a lower-low beneath this week's open
A recovery through the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday drop at 1.1185 and back above ema20 near 1.1200 would neutralise the breakdown read
Eurozone HICP Wed 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8% y/y) and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC framing 25bp vs 50bp for December is the nearer USD risk to the oversold stretch
Monday's rally from the 1.1134 weekly low topped at the 1.1251 week high at Tuesday's London open, where Waller's 50bp talk drew a rejection. The hot US CPI print (0.4% m/m vs 0.3% f/c) then broke the Monday higher-lows trendline in the NY session and retraced about 78% of the Monday rally. Price sits below a now-falling EMA(20) and the EMA(50), RSI(14) has slid from 78 to 28.8 (oversold) and ATR has expanded to 13.6 pips, with today's session low at 1.1155 the first support above the weekly low and Friday's 1.1131 low.
Support: 1.11549, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11777, 1.12021, 1.12511
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1134 weekly low exposes the 1.1131 friday low and completes a full retrace of the Monday rally
Reclaim of the 1.1178 cpi bar low, then the 1.1202 ema50, would mark the post-CPI drop as an oversold overextension
ECB's Lane at 16:45 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift the read on the 25 vs 50bp debate
Eurozone HICP Wed 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8% y/y) and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC are the next high-impact EUR risks
False break above Monday high at 1.1251, then a lower low; price at the 61.8% fib of the week's rally.
The rally from the 1.1134 week low built on Monday's oil slide. It peaked at 1.1251 (week high) at Tuesday's London open, only briefly clearing Monday's 1.1224 high before reversing on Waller's hawkish remarks, which broke the week's trendline. The hot US CPI bar then cut through EMA(20) at 1.1212 and EMA(50) at 1.1204 to 1.1178, the 61.8% retracement of the week's advance. RSI(14) has dropped from an overbought 78 to 34, and ATR has expanded from 8 to 12.5 pips.
Support: 1.1170, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12118, 1.12511
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the mon base at 1.1170 (Monday's London breakout zone) exposes the 78.6% fib near 1.1159 and the week low at 1.1134
An H1 close back above psych 1.1200 and the ema20 at 1.1212 would mark the CPI drop as a retest rather than a reversal
ECB's Lane at 16:45 UTC in ~1h, and Bowman at 20:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
EZ HICP Wed 07:00 UTC (YoY f/c 2.8%): a hot print is the main risk to the breakdown read
Week high at 1.1251 now caps the structure as a lower-high reference
Monday higher-low sequence broken; first lower high in place.
The oil-driven rally that started from the 1.1134 monday low peaked at a 1.1251 week high at Tuesday's London open. RSI(14) topped near 78 there, and Waller's hawkish remarks triggered a rejection that started a run of lower highs. The hotter US CPI print (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) then broke the rally line in the first hour of NY and set a cpi low at 1.1179, the 61.8% retracement of the week's rally. Price now sits below a rolling-over ema20 (1.1215) and ema50 (1.1205), with ATR expanding to 12.2 pips.
Support: 1.11786, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.12049, 1.12154, 1.12511
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema50 at 1.1205 would undo the post-CPI break and put the ema20 at 1.1215 back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1179 cpi low / 61.8% retracement opens the path back toward the 1.1134 monday low
Lower highs capping below 1.1220 keep the week high at 1.1251 out of reach
ECB's Lane at 16:45 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could extend or reverse the CPI move; EZ HICP Wed 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8%) is the next major test
Higher lows since Sunday open; London false break at 1.1251 rejected.
EUR/USD built higher lows from Sunday's 1.1134 open through Monday's NY session as the oil slide weighed on USD. The London-open push through the asian high to a 1.1251 week high (RSI 78) was rejected when Waller's hawkish CPI warning hit at 09:00 UTC. Price has slipped back below ema20 at 1.1219, the Monday trendline gave way during Asia and RSI has reset to 50, while ema50 at 1.1206 sits just under the 1.1213 session low near the 38.2% fib of the week's rally.
Support: 1.12126, 1.12057, 1.11928
Resistance: 1.12185, 1.12317, 1.12511
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read within the hour
H1 close below ema50 at 1.1206 exposes the 50% fib at 1.1193
Recovery back above the asian high at 1.1232 puts the 1.1251 week high back in view
ATR expanding to 10.3 pips signals range widening into the release; ECB's Cipollone follows at 14:00 UTC
12:36 UTC
Uptrend this week, pulling back after rejection · RSI 52 · price 1.1217
Higher lows from Monday's open; false break above 1.1230 range top.
The week opened near the 1.1134 weekly low, and Monday's oil-driven USD selloff carried EUR/USD up through London and NY to 1.1224, with RSI(14) holding near or above 70 for most of the advance. Tuesday's London open pushed to a 1.1251 week high, but Waller's hawkish warning reversed the move within the hour. That left a false break above the 1.1230 range top, with ATR(14) expanding from 8.3 to 10.5 pips on the drop. Price now sits just below EMA(20) at 1.1219 and above EMA(50) at 1.1205, testing today's low at 1.1214 between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of the weekly impulse, with RSI(14) back to 51.9.
Support: 1.1214, 1.12053, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1230, 1.12511
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~54 min, core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 1.1230 range top negates the false break and puts the 1.1251 week high back in play
Failure to hold today's low at 1.1214 extends the pullback toward EMA(50) at 1.1205 and the 1.1200 round number
A close below EMA(50) and 1.1200 opens the 50% retracement near 1.1193, with the 1.1134 weekly low below
Higher lows from 1.1138; 1.1251 session high rejected, Monday trendline broken.
EUR/USD has climbed roughly 110 pips from Monday's 1.1138 open. Falling oil and a softer dollar unwound Friday's NFP-driven drop to 1.1131, with most of the gain coming in Monday's European and NY hours. London today extended to a 1.1251 session high before a sharp rejection around the Lane and Waller remarks broke the Monday trendline, and RSI(14) has dropped from 78.8 to 56; price still holds above EMA(20) at 1.1220 and EMA(50) at 1.1206, with the asian low at 1.1216 just beneath.
Support: 1.12195, 1.1216, 1.12057
Resistance: 1.12513, 1.12729
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the asian low at 1.1216 and EMA(20) exposes EMA(50) near 1.1206, close to the 38.2% fib of the Friday-to-today move
Recovery above the 1.1251 session high would put the uptrend back in play, with last Wednesday's prior high at 1.1273 next
HICP and Lagarde on Wednesday could follow up on any post-CPI move
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after London rejection · RSI 58 · price 1.12277
Higher lows since Monday's open; rally trendline broken on London reversal.
EUR/USD has climbed steadily from Sunday's 1.1138 weekly open, recovering most of Friday's NFP-driven slide to 1.1131 as oil's slump weighed on the dollar and the EMA(20) turned higher beneath price. The London open push to a 1.1251 london high was fully reversed within the second London hour, which knocked RSI(14) from 78.8 down to 57.9 and broke the Monday rally trendline. Price still holds above the ema20 at 1.1219 and the ema50 at 1.1205, sitting on the top of the Asian range (1.1216–1.1230) that formed overnight.
Support: 1.12191, 1.1216, 1.12049
Resistance: 1.12513, 1.12729
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema20 (1.1219) and the 1.1216 asian low puts the ema50 (1.1205) and the 38.2% rally fib near 1.1205 in focus
Recovery back through the 1.1251 london high reopens last Wednesday's 1.1273 prior high
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Euro area HICP Wed 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8%) is the next EUR-side risk
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into CPI · RSI 79 · price 1.12354
Higher lows since week open, Monday high broken in London.
The Friday-Tuesday rally off the 1.1131 post-NFP low has run on the oil slump and a softer USD. Higher lows have held since the 1.1138 week open, and London today broke above the Monday high near 1.1222 to a session high at 1.1251. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 1.1218 and EMA(50) at 1.1204. RSI(14) at 78.8 is overbought and still making new highs with price, and the forming bar has slipped back to 1.1235 as Waller speaks.
Support: 1.1222, 1.12183, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.12513, 1.12729
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the last print before the Fed meeting and could materially shift this read
An H1 close back below the Monday high at 1.1222 and the ema20 at 1.1218 would turn today's breakout into a false break
A close above the 1.1251 session high opens the Wednesday prior high at 1.1273
Loss of the ema50 at 1.1204, near the 38.2% fib of the rally, would break the higher-lows sequence
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into US CPI · RSI 76 · price 1.12426
Higher highs and higher lows since Friday's low; Asian range break at London open.
EURUSD has recovered more than 110 pips from Friday's post-NFP low at 1.1131. Monday's London and NY sessions drove the leg as lower oil and a softer dollar weighed on USD, and price holds above the ema20 (1.1215) and ema50 (1.1202). The London open pushed through the Asian range high at 1.1232, bringing the pair up to the 1.1250 round number below the 1.1268 Thursday high and 1.1273 Wednesday high. RSI(14) is overbought at 75.8 but only matches Monday evening's 76 peak on a higher close, while ATR has compressed to 8.6 pips from 10.3 ahead of CPI.
Support: 1.1232, 1.12149, 1.12022
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.12682, 1.12729
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the Asian range high at 1.1232 would turn the London breakout into a false break
Close below ema20 at 1.1215 breaks the higher-low sequence of the post-NFP recovery; ema50 at 1.1202 is next
Rejection at the 1.1250 round number with RSI failing to exceed 76 confirms a bearish divergence
Thursday high 1.1268 and Wednesday high 1.1273 are the remaining overhead structure before the window high
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC
Higher lows since Monday open; tight Asian range above EMAs.
EUR/USD has retraced the bulk of Friday's NFP-driven slide to 1.1131. London led Monday's climb back through the 1.1200 pivot as oil slid on US-Iran de-escalation, and a late NY push tagged 1.1224. Asia has held a tight 1.1216–1.1232 range above EMA(20) at 1.1212 and EMA(50) at 1.1200, with ATR compressing to 8.2 pips. The fresh session high came with RSI(14) at 69.7 versus 76 on Monday's spike, a mild bearish divergence along the Monday higher lows.
Support: 1.1216, 1.12121, 1.12005
Resistance: 1.1232, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print re-exposes the ema50 / 1.1200 pivot
H1 close below the asian low near 1.1216 and ema20 at 1.1212 breaks the Monday higher lows trendline
Hourly close above the 1.1232 session high opens the path to Thursday's 1.1268 prior high and the 1.1273 wed high
Loss of ema50 at 1.1200 puts the 38.2% fib on the recovery near 1.1193 in play
Waller at 09:00 UTC and ECB speakers (De Guindos 08:30) are pre-CPI risk for the Asian range
Monday impulse from weekly open, tight range above rising EMA(20).
EUR/USD rallied steadily from Monday's 1.1138 weekly open. The move was led by the London open and a late-NY leg, as falling oil and US-Iran deal hopes pulled the USD back. That erased most of Friday's NFP-driven drop to 1.1131. Since Monday's NY session the pair has held a tight 1.1216–1.1230 range, with the Asian low at 1.1216 and the session high at 1.1230. A rising trendline from the weekly open runs just beneath it, and price sits above both rising EMAs: EMA(20) at 1.1211 and EMA(50) at 1.1199. RSI(14) has eased from 76 to 67.6 and ATR has compressed to 8.2 pips, so momentum is cooling rather than reversing.
Support: 1.1216, 1.12105, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12302, 1.12437, 1.12729
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with ranges compressed beforehand
H1 close below the 1.1216 Asian low and the rising trendline exposes the ema20 at 1.1211 and the 1.1200 pivot
Failure to hold the 1.1200 pivot would hand back most of Monday's rally
H1 close above the 1.1230 session high opens the 1.1244 Thu high, with the 1.1273 Wed high beyond
Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and ECB's De Guindos ahead of CPI could break the range early
Higher lows since Monday's open, Asia compressing under Thursday's lower high.
Monday's rebound from the post-NFP 1.1131 low ran steadily through London and NY. Oil-driven USD softness lifted the pair about 90 pips above the 1.1138 weekly open, and a late-NY push carried it through 1.1200, recovering roughly 70% of the Thursday–Friday decline. The Asia session has compressed in a 1.1216–1.1228 band just under the fib 78.6 at 1.1239 and Thursday's lower high at 1.1244. RSI(14) is near 72 (overbought), price sits about 18 pips above EMA(20), and the higher-lows trendline is still intact.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1210, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1244, 1.1273
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller at 09:00 UTC adds pre-CPI risk
H1 close below the asian low at 1.1216 and EMA(20) near 1.1210 breaks the higher-lows trendline
Close above the 1.1244 lower high and fib 78.6 opens the path to the 1.1273 wed high
Failure to hold the monday base at 1.1190 negates the rebound structure
V-recovery to 61.8% of the Wed–Fri slide; tight Asian range.
The Wed–Fri slide from the 1.1273 week high bottomed at the 1.1131 nfp low after Friday's 165K payrolls beat. Monday's rebound from the 1.1138 weekly open ran on US-Iran deal hopes and lower oil, led by the London open and a late-NY push, and reclaimed the 1.12 handle and EMA(50). Asia has since stalled in a 1.1216–1.1227 band around the 61.8% retracement of the slide, slipping below Monday's rising trendline as RSI(14) eases from ~75 to ~68 and ATR compresses to ~7 pips.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1200, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1243, 1.1273
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~9.5h; f/c 0.3% m/m headline, 0.2% core) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the asian low at 1.1216 exposes the ema50 / 1.12 area; losing that reopens the path toward the nfp low at 1.1131
H1 close above the asian high at 1.1227 opens the 78.6% fib at 1.1243, with the week high at 1.1273 beyond
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and ECB's De Guindos during London could jolt the Asian range before CPI
03:03 UTC
Rebound from Friday low, stalling at 61.8% · RSI 66 · price 1.12194
Lower highs since Wednesday intact; Monday's higher-low sequence flattening into a tight range.
Monday's oil-relief bid on US-Iran deal hopes lifted EUR/USD about 90 pips off Friday's post-NFP low at 1.1131. The leg built through London and broke above 1.1200 late in the NY session, retracing 61.8% of the Thursday–Friday decline. In Asia price has compressed under a 1.1227 range top and slipped below Monday's rising trendline, while holding the 61.8% fib at 1.1216, EMA(20) near 1.1207 and the 1.1200 psych level, with RSI(14) easing to ~66 from 74; Thursday's lower high at 1.1244 still caps the sequence from Wednesday.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1207, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to the 1.1200 psych / ema20 floor
H1 close below 1.1200 reopens Friday's 1.1131 low and keeps the lower-high sequence in charge
H1 close above the 1.1227 range top exposes the 1.1244 lower high, then the 1.1268 thu high
Waller 09:00 UTC and ECB's De Guindos 08:30 / Lane 16:45 UTC could jolt the Asian range before CPI
02:02 UTC
Rebound from Friday low, stalling at week high · RSI 72 · price 1.12225
Higher lows since Monday open; Asia compressing under 1.1226, below Thursday's 1.1268 lower high.
Monday rally off the 1.1134 low retraced most of Friday's NFP-driven drop to the 1.1131 Friday low. The move ran mainly in the London morning, with a late-NY extension through the 1.1200 round number, as lower oil on US-Iran deal hopes eased pressure on EUR. Asia has since compressed into a ~10-pip band just under the 1.1226 week high, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 72, while session lows probe the Monday trendline. The Friday high at 1.1235 and the Thursday high at 1.1268 sit overhead as the lower-high sequence from earlier in the window.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11887, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12345, 1.12679
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 1.1200 round number and the Monday trendline breaks the higher-low sequence, with fib 38.2 at 1.1189 next
Close above the 1.1235 Friday high opens the path to the 1.1268 Thursday high
Failure to hold fib 38.2 at 1.1189 exposes the 1.1131 Friday low
Higher lows since Monday open; ~75% of NFP drop retraced.
The turn came at Monday's 1.1142 session open. London drove the first leg and a late NY push carried the pair through 1.1200 to a 1.1224 Monday high, as oil and US-Iran relief softened the dollar; about three-quarters of Friday's drop from the pre-NFP high at 1.1243 to the NFP low at 1.1131 is now retraced. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with EMA(20) converging on the 1.1200 psych level and the 38.2% fib of the rally at 1.1189 just below, while RSI(14) near 66 and a flat Asia session press against Monday's rising trendline.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11887, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.12435, 1.12728
What it said to watch
US CPI 13:30 UTC today (core MoM f/c 0.2%): a soft print opens the path toward the pre-NFP high at 1.1243, while a hot print exposes the 1.1200 psych/ema20 area
H1 close back below the 1.1200 psych/ema20 confluence breaks the breakout read and puts the 38.2% fib at 1.1189 in focus
Rising trendline from Monday's lows is being tested near 1.1216 in the Asia session; a clean break signals the rally is stalling
Close above the Monday high at 1.1224 resumes the higher-high sequence, with the pre-NFP high 1.1243 and the week high 1.1273 above
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC could shift the read before CPI
00:01 UTC
Uptrend since the weekly open, RSI near 70 · RSI 70 · price 1.12205
V-shaped recovery from the Friday low; Monday higher lows, holding just above 1.1200.
Wednesday-to-Friday saw a steady sequence of lower highs from the 1.1273 wed high, capped by the NFP beat in Friday's NY session that drove price to the 1.1131 friday low. Since the 1.1142 weekly open, Monday has climbed along a rising line of higher lows as oil and yields slid on US-Iran headlines, with a late NY session push through the 1.1200 round number, now coinciding with EMA(20). Price is stalling just under the 1.1225 monday high, which sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Wed-Fri decline, with RSI(14) pressing 70 for the first time since Thursday.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11419, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.12679, 1.12728
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller at 09:00 UTC is earlier risk
Hourly close back below the 1.1200 round number would mark the breakout as a false break
Break of the Monday rising line exposes the weekly open at 1.1142 and the friday low at 1.1131
Close above the monday high and 61.8% retracement opens the 1.1268 thu high and 1.1273 wed high