22:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing in a range below a falling EMA(50) · RSI 44 · price 1.11637
Lower highs since the September high; 5-week range 1.1104–1.1273.
The decline from the 1.1654 September high cut through the August base, and since early October price has stalled in a 1.1104–1.1273 range for roughly five weeks. Price sits below both EMAs, with the falling EMA(50) at 1.1290 capping the range top, while the EMA(20) at 1.1203 has flattened as the range has held. Tuesday's hot US CPI produced a rejection from 1.1251 back under the ema20, with the close at 1.1164 leaving the nov low at 1.1131 and the range floor at 1.1104 in view, as ATR expands to 70 pips.
Support: 1.11308, 1.11042, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.12034, 1.12728, 1.12896
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.1104 range floor resumes the downtrend; the 1.1000 round number is the next reference below
- Daily close back above the 1.1273 range top and the ema50 at 1.1290 would break the lower-high sequence on the trendline from September
- Holding the nov low at 1.1131 keeps the range read intact
- German final HICP and Lagarde (Wed 07:00–09:45 UTC) plus Fed's Bowman/Paulson tonight could materially shift this read