22:01 UTC
Downtrend stalled, ranging since early October · RSI 48 · price 1.12209
Five-week range 1.1104–1.1273 beneath a falling EMA50.
The September downtrend from the 1.1654 swing high stalled in the first week of October. Since then price has carved a roughly five-week range between the 1.1104 range low and the 1.1273 range high, with the EMA50 overhead near 1.1300 still sloping lower. Friday's blowout NFP knocked the pair to 1.1131, but Monday recovered the move as lower oil and softer yields trimmed the dollar, closing just above the 1.1200 round number and beneath the 23.6% fib at 1.1234; RSI near 48 and price hugging EMA20 fit the range read.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1131, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1273, 1.1300
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.1273 range high breaks the range and brings the ema50 near 1.1300 into play
- Loss of the 1.1131 Friday low, then the 1.1104 range low, would resume the September downtrend with lower lows
- Rejection at the 23.6% fib at 1.1234 keeps the 1.1200 round number as the near-term pivot
- US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and Eurozone HICP Wed 07:00 UTC could materially shift this read