Tight 1.1162–1.1170 range after a 23.6% retrace of the CPI selloff.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC knocked EURUSD from 1.1210 to a 1.1145 NY low, adding to the move off the 1.1251 London high. Since then price has made a slow, shallow recovery, roughly 23.6% of the CPI selloff, and now sits at the range top of a 1.1162–1.1170 coil into the Asia session. Price is above the ema20 at 1.1166 but below the ema50 at 1.1176, with ATR(14) compressed to 3.2 pips.
Support: 1.11658, 1.1162, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.11756, 1.1183
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 range top and the ema50 at 1.1176 opens a test of the 1.1183 cpi retest zone, where the post-CPI spike low sits
Loss of the ema20 and the 1.1162 range floor puts the 1.1145 NY low back in play
Fed's Bowman/Paulson remarks on 25bp vs 50bp could break the Asian range
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8% YoY) is the next scheduled risk for this read
23:31 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, basing in a tight recovery · RSI 53 · price 1.11693
Higher lows off 1.1145 NY low, pressing 1.1170 range top.
London's false break above 1.1250 failed. Hot US CPI then cracked the Asian range low and drove the pair to a 1.1145 NY low. Since then a grind of higher lows has built a 1.1162–1.1170 consolidation, with price now testing the range top. Price sits above the ema20 at 1.1165 and below the ema50 at 1.1176. RSI(14) is neutral at 53 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.4 pips from 6.5.
Support: 1.11654, 1.1162, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.11758, 1.11944
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 range top exposes the ema50 at 1.1176 and the 1.1194 CPI bounce high
Break below the 1.1162 range low and the rising lows line reopens the 1.1145 NY low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson are speaking now (23:30 UTC), and German final HICP at 07:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Price is near the 23.6% retracement of the CPI selloff; failure to clear it keeps the recovery shallow
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight post-NY range · RSI 44 · price 1.11657
Lower high at London peak, CPI-led lower low at 1.1145, now flat 1.1161–1.1167 range.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the pair through 1.1200, extending the slide from the 1.1251 London high to a 1.1145 NY low. The bounce stalled into a 6-pip range between the 1.1161 range floor and the 1.1167 range top after NY close, with price just under a flat EMA20, the declining EMA50 at 1.1176 overhead and ATR compressed to 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.11615, 1.11513, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.1167, 1.11764, 1.1183
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman/Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the thin post-NY range
Close above the 1.1167 range top puts the ema50 at 1.1176 and the 1.1183 post-cpi cap in play
Loss of the 1.1161 range floor reopens the 1.1151 bounce base and the 1.1145 ny low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC is the next scheduled driver into London open
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after NY low · RSI 43 · price 1.11652
Tight post-NY range below falling ema50.
Hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%) at 13:30 UTC broke the London range and extended the selloff from the 1.1251 session high to a 1.1145 ny low, with RSI(14) recovering from the low 20s to 43.4. Since NY close price has sat in a 5-pip 1.1162–1.1167 band from range low to range high, just under a flattening ema20 and below the falling ema50. ATR has compressed to 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1153, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.1167, 1.11773, 1.11944
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the compressed 1.1162–1.1167 range
Close above the 1.1167 range high puts the ema50 at 1.1177 and the 1.1194 cpi bounce high in play
Failure to hold the 1.1162 range low exposes the 1.1153 higher low, then the 1.1145 ny low
German final HICP 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 09:45 UTC are London-session risk for this read
Tight range 1.1162–1.1167 below ema50 after NY low at 1.1145.
Hot US CPI extended the selloff from the London high at 1.1251 down to a NY low at 1.1145. The bounce has stalled in a 5-pip range high/low band of 1.1167–1.1162 after NY close, under the 23.6% retrace of that move and the falling ema50 at 1.1178. RSI(14) has recovered from 19 to 43 and ATR has compressed to 3.8 pips, with price sitting flat on the ema20.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1153, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.1167, 1.11779, 1.1183
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman/Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the range high/low compression
M15 close below the 1.1162 range low exposes the 1.1153 pullback low and the 1.1145 ny low
Close above the 1.1167 range high puts the ema50 at 1.1178 and the 1.1183 post-cpi lip in play
German final HICP Wed 07:00 UTC into London open could shift this read
Tight post-CPI range under ema20 after lower low at 1.1145.
London faded from 1.1251, then the hot US CPI print knocked EUR/USD through 1.1200 to a 1.1145 ny low. The late-NY bounce has stalled in a 1.1162–1.1167 range just under the ema20, with ATR(14) compressed to 4.1 pips. RSI(14) has climbed from 18.5 to 42.5, but price still sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11615, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.1167, 1.11784
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1167 range top brings the ema50 at 1.1178 and the 23.6% fib of the london-ny drop near 1.1170 into play
Break of the 1.1161 range low reopens the 1.1145 ny low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (in ~89 min) could break the compression
Post-CPI lower low at 1.1145, shallow rebound now compressing in a tight range below ema20.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% m/m) extended the reversal from the 1.1251 London high, dropping the pair to a 1.1145 NY low. After NY close, the rebound has stalled in a 1.1162–1.1167 range just under the ema20, still short of the 23.6% retracement of the selloff. RSI(14) at 40.6 has recovered from sub-20, and ATR has compressed to 4.3 pips.
Support: 1.1162, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11648, 1.1167, 1.11791
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1162 range low exposes the 1.1145 ny low
Acceptance above the 1.1167 range top and the ema20 opens the ema50 at 1.1179
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Wed 07:00 UTC HICP final and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC are the next EUR-side risk
Tight range 1.1162–1.1167 above a rising higher-lows line off the session low.
Hot US CPI (0.4% m/m) extended the slide from the 1.1251 London high to a 1.1145 session low. Price has since built higher lows into a 1.1162–1.1167 range late in NY hours. It sits pinned at ema20, with the ema50 at 1.1180 overhead and the range top just under the 23.6% fib near 1.1170. RSI(14) has recovered from 12 to 44 and ATR has compressed to 4.3 pips.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1167, 1.1180, 1.1194
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1167 range top and the 23.6% fib opens the ema50 at 1.1180, then the 1.1194 cpi bounce high
Break of the 1.1162 range low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.1145 session low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the compressed range
Wed 07:00 UTC HICP and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC are the next EUR-side risk
Lower lows into NY; tight range under ema20 after 1.1145 low.
The hot US CPI (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) extended the drop from the 1.1251 London high to a 1.1145 NY low. Price has since recovered about a fifth of that drop and is compressing between the 1.1162 range low and the 1.1167 bounce high, just under ema20, late in NY. RSI(14) has recovered from 12 to 38.8 and ATR has halved to 4.4 pips, with the ema50 at 1.1180 overhead.
Support: 1.1162, 1.11532, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.1167, 1.11803, 1.1185
What it said to watch
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC could break the late-NY compression
Close above the 1.1167 bounce high opens the ema50 at 1.1180 and the fib 38.2 near 1.1185
Loss of the 1.1162 range low and the 1.1153 pullback low exposes the 1.1145 ny low
Thin liquidity around the NY close and rollover can distort the range edges
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY sell-off · RSI 40 · price 1.11626
Waller capped the London high at 1.1251. The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC then broke the 1.1216–1.1232 Asian range and drove a NY-session slide to a 1.1145 session low. Since 18:00 UTC price has compressed into a 1.1161–1.1167 range just under the flat ema20 and the 23.6% fib near 1.1170, with ATR(14) shrinking to 4.6 pips and RSI(14) back at 39.5 from sub-15 readings.
Support: 1.1161, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11653, 1.1167, 1.11786
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1167 range high and ema20 opens a retest of the 1.1179 cpi bar low and the 38.2% fib near 1.1185
Break below the 1.1161 range low exposes the 1.1145 session low
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC could break the current compression
Wed 07:00 UTC HICP final and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC are the next EUR-side risk
Post-CPI selloff to a 1.1145 day low, then a rebound flattening into a tight range under ema20.
Waller capped the London high at 1.1251. The hot US CPI print (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) at 13:30 UTC then broke the 1.1210 floor, and the CPI drop extended 66 pips to the 1.1145 day low during NY hours. The late-NY rebound off the basing zone has stalled into a 1.1162–1.1167 range just under ema20. RSI(14) has recovered to 41 from sub-15 oversold readings, and ATR has compressed to 5 pips.
Support: 1.11615, 1.1149, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11657, 1.1167, 1.11825
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1167 rebound high and ema20 extends the recovery toward ema50 at 1.1183, near the 38.2% of the CPI drop fib
Break of the 1.1162 late ny low turns the consolidation lower toward the 1.1149 basing zone and 1.1145 day low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off post-CPI low, tight range below ema20.
The hot US CPI (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) at 13:30 UTC broke the London range near 1.1210 and extended to the post-cpi low at 1.1145 during NY hours. Late-NY recovery is capped at the 1.1167 bounce high, near the 38.2% of the CPI fib, with price just below a flattening ema20 at 1.1166. RSI(14) is back to 41 from sub-15 and ATR has compressed to 5 pips as the 1.1162–1.1167 range tightens.
Support: 1.11615, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.1167, 1.11825
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1167 bounce high and the 38.2% CPI fib exposes the ema50 at 1.1183
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 1.1162 range low reopens the post-cpi low at 1.1145
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (and again at 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read if a 50bp December hike is backed
Post-CPI low at 1.1145, higher lows into 1.1167 cap.
Waller knocked EURUSD off the 1.1251 London high, and the hot US CPI (0.4% m/m) extended the slide to a 1.1145 session low in NY, with RSI(14) bottoming near 12. The late-NY recovery line of higher lows has stalled at the 1.1167 swing high, just above the ema20 at 1.1166, holding below the 23.6% of the selloff fib. Price sits back under the ema20 at the recent low of 1.1162, and ATR has compressed to 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.11615, 1.11571, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11659, 1.1167, 1.11833
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman/Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could break the compression
M15 close above the 1.1167 swing high and the selloff fib 23.6% (~1.1170) opens the ema50 at 1.1183
Loss of the 1.1162 recent low and the 1.1157 bounce pivot breaks the recovery line toward the 1.1145 session low
Wed 07:00 UTC HICP final and 09:45 UTC Lagarde are the next EUR-side inputs
Post-CPI lower low at 1.1145, then a higher-low chain grinding back toward a flattening ema20.
Hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%) broke the pair below 1.1200, extending the London reversal from 1.1251 to a 1.1145 session low. Since then, higher lows along a rising trendline have lifted price back to the flattening ema20 and the 1.1167 rebound high, with RSI(14) at 41.4 after a 12 low. ATR has compressed to 5.3 pips, and the bounce is only a shallow retracement on the selloff fib, still well below the ema50.
Support: 1.11571, 1.11484, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11661, 1.1167, 1.11841
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1167 rebound high and ema20 opens the 23.6% selloff fib near 1.1170 and the ema50 at 1.1184
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1157 pivot exposes the 1.1148 higher low
Close below the 1.1145 session low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3% MoM) broke EUR/USD out of the 1.1212–1.1225 shelf and through 1.1200 to a 1.1145 session low at 16:30 UTC. Late NY has since printed a chain of higher lows, with price stalling at the ema20 near 1.1166 and the 23.6% retracement of the sell-off. RSI has recovered to 39 from a 12 oversold extreme while ATR compresses to 5.5 pips; the 38.2% fib at 1.1173 sits above.
Support: 1.11614, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11662, 1.11734, 1.11848
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 and the 38.2% fib at 1.1173 extends the bounce toward the ema50 at 1.1185
Break of the 1.1161 higher low ends the recovery sequence and puts the 1.1145 session low back in play
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~45 min) could reprice the 50bp December debate and move this read
Thin Asia session approaching; ATR compression suggests a narrow range into the open
Post-CPI lower low at 1.1145, then rising lows into ema20 resistance.
Waller capped the 1.1251 London high, then the hot US CPI print (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) took EUR/USD through the Asian range to a 1.1145 NY low. The late-NY bounce on rising lows has lifted RSI(14) from oversold to 39.9 and is now retesting ema20 at 1.11665. Price is still below both EMAs, and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.7 pips.
Support: 1.11532, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11665, 1.11857
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 at 1.11665 would extend the bounce toward ema50 near 1.11857
Break of the 1.11532 higher low and the rising lows line would undercut the bounce
Loss of the 1.11448 ny low would mark a fresh lower low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC: 50bp hike talk could shift this read
Wed HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (09:45 UTC) are the next EUR tests
Higher lows off the 1.1145 low, capped just under ema20.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC (0.4% vs 0.3%) extended the slide that began with the Waller rejection at the 1.1251 London high, taking price to a 1.1145 session low. Late NY has built higher lows into the 1.1164 area, but price is still capped by ema20 at 1.1167, just under the 38.2% CPI drop fib near 1.1170. RSI has recovered to 39.5 from 12 and ATR is compressing at 5.9 pips.
Support: 1.11571, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11667, 1.11866, 1.11944
What it said to watch
Close above ema20 at 1.1167 and the 38.2% CPI drop fib opens ema50 at 1.1187 and the cpi bounce high at 1.1194
Break of the recovery line and the 1.1157 hl pivot exposes the 1.1145 session low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could reignite USD strength if she backs a 50bp December hike
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, recovering from oversold · RSI 38 · price 1.11629
Post-CPI selloff, NY higher-low bounce.
The selloff from the 1.1251 London session high started after Waller spoke. The hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3%) then extended it to a 1.1145 session low in NY. Since then a higher low at 1.1148 has formed, RSI(14) has recovered from 12 to 37.5 and ATR has compressed to 6.2 pips, with price pressing the 1.1164 bounce high just under ema20 at 1.1167.
Support: 1.11484, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.1164, 1.11669, 1.1178
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 at 1.1167 and the 1.1164 bounce high shifts the read to a corrective recovery toward the 1.1178 cpi bar low
Failure at the higher low of 1.1148 exposes the 1.1145 session low and resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~90 min) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower lows, now higher lows off the session low.
Waller's hawkish remarks capped London at 1.12511, and the hot US CPI beat (0.4% vs 0.3%) broke the pair down through 1.1200 to a session low of 1.11448 in NY hours. Late NY is printing higher lows from there, with RSI(14) recovering to 37 from a sub-15 extreme and ATR(14) compressing to 6.5 pips. Price is pressing the ema20 at 1.11674, just under the 23.6% fib of the Waller-to-session-low drop, and still below the ema50.
Support: 1.11484, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11674, 1.11786, 1.11885
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.11484 higher low breaks the recovery line and puts the 1.11448 session low back in play
M15 close above the ema20 and the 23.6% fib (~1.1170) opens the CPI low at 1.11786, then the ema50 near 1.11885
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read, given 25bp vs 50bp December pricing
Eurozone HICP Wed 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8% YoY) is the next scheduled EUR risk
Lower highs from 1.1251; small higher lows off 1.1145 in late NY.
The hot US CPI (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) at 13:30 UTC broke the pair out of its London range and extended the drop to a 1.1145 session low after London close. Late NY is basing with a higher low at 1.1148, ATR(14) compressing to 6.5 pips and RSI(14) lifting from 12 to 29.4. Price sits below both EMAs, with ema20 at 1.1168 next to the 23.6% retracement of the 1.1251–1.1145 cpi drop fib.
Support: 1.11484, 1.11448, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11679, 1.11786, 1.11895
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 at 1.1168 would mark the first reclaim since the CPI break; the cpi low at 1.1179 and ema50 at 1.1190 sit above
Failure to hold the 1.1148 higher low and the 1.1145 session low reopens the 1.1137 monday low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC. Backing for a 50bp December hike could extend the downtrend
Post-CPI lower highs, tight base above session low.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC extended the selloff from the 1.1251 London high to a 1.1145 session low in NY, with lower highs capped by the downtrend line. Late in the NY session price is basing in a 1.1145–1.1156 band below the ema20 (1.1169). RSI(14) is recovering from 12 to 25.5 but remains oversold, and ATR is compressing to 6.7 pips.
Support: 1.1145, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1183, 1.1191
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1145 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1137 monday low
Close above the ema20 at 1.1169 and the downtrend line breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.1183 lower high next, then ema50 at 1.1191
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift this read if he backs a 50bp December hike
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and basing · RSI 26 · price 1.11553
Lower highs from 1.1251, tight base above 1.1145 session low.
The 13:30 UTC US CPI beat extended the London reversal from 1.1251, taking EUR/USD through 1.1200 to a 1.1145 session low as RSI(14) bottomed at 12. After London close, price is basing in a 1.1145–1.1156 band below the ema20 at 1.1171, with RSI still oversold at 26 and ATR easing to 7 pips.
Support: 1.11448, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11705, 1.11923
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1171 would mark the first break of the CPI selloff's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1145 session low exposes Monday's low at 1.1137
ema50 at 1.1192, just under the 1.1200 handle, is the upper limit of any rebound inside the CPI selloff
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read if a 50bp December hike is endorsed
Lower highs since 1.1251; tight post-CPI box above session low.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3%) broke the London range and stretched the sell-off from the 1.1251 session high to a 1.1145 session low. Since London close, price has compressed in a 1.1145–1.1154 box below both EMAs and under the lower highs trendline. RSI(14) is oversold at 21.1 after bottoming near 12, and ATR(14) is easing to 7.2 pips.
Support: 1.11448, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11535, 1.1172, 1.11786
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1154 range top opens a retest of ema20 at 1.1172
Reclaiming the 1.1179 cpi low and the lower highs trendline would break the post-CPI sequence; the sell-off fib 38.2% sits at 1.1185
Loss of the 1.1145 session low exposes the monday low at 1.1137
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on 25bp vs 50bp for December could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower-high sequence, tight base at the session low.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke price out of the 1.1215–1.1230 range, and NY hours stretched the slide to a 1.1145 session low, about 106 pips below the London high at 1.1251. After London close, price is basing just under the 1.1154 bounce high. RSI(14) is oversold at 19.4 and ATR is easing to 7.4 pips, while the ema20 at 1.1174 and the 1.1194 lower high cap the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.1145, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1174, 1.1194
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1145 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1137 monday low
Close above the 1.1154 bounce high, then a reclaim of ema20 at 1.1174, would break the post-CPI lower-highs line
A move back through the 1.1194 lower high (near the 38.2% of the London high fib) negates the post-CPI downtrend read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on 25bp vs 50bp could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 19 · price 1.11512
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high, basing after London close.
Hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%) knocked EUR/USD through the Asian range low and the pre-CPI low at 1.12082. That extended a lower-high/lower-low chain from the 1.12511 London high into a 1.11448 session low after London close. RSI(14) at 18.5 is oversold and ATR has eased to 7.7 pips as price stalls under the falling trendline and the ema20 at 1.11763.
Support: 1.11448, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11763, 1.11944, 1.12082
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.11448 session low extends the lower-low chain toward Monday's low at 1.1137
Recovery through the falling trendline (~1.1163) and the ema20 at 1.11763, near the 61.8% of the post-CPI leg fib, would be the first break in the lower-high sequence
Post-CPI bounce high at 1.11944 caps the move. A close above it negates the post-CPI downtrend read
ECB's Escrivá in ~15 min and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift this read, especially on any 50bp December framing
Lower highs since 1.1251 London high, post-CPI leg to 1.1145 session low.
Waller knocked the pair off the 1.1251 London high, and the hot US CPI beat (0.4% vs 0.3%) then broke the pre-data range. Lower highs carried it to a 1.1145 session low into London close. RSI(14) is oversold at 18.8, ticking up from 12.1, and price sits below the ema20 (1.1179), which caps alongside the post-CPI lower-high trendline. ATR has expanded to 8 pips from 5.5.
Support: 1.11448, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11789, 1.11991, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1145 session low exposes the 1.1137 monday low
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1179 breaks the lower-high trendline and challenges the downtrend read
Reclaim of the ema50 near 1.1199 and the 1.1200 round number would undo the CPI breakdown
ECB's Escrivá at 17:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read during thin late-NY hours
Lower highs and lower lows since the CPI range break.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3%) broke the 1.1210–1.1250 London range, and NY has kept printing lower highs down to a session low at 1.1145. RSI(14) at 12.1 is deeply oversold, ATR has expanded to 8.2 pips, and price sits under both EMAs with Monday's low at 1.1137 just below.
Support: 1.11448, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11818, 1.11944
What it said to watch
M15 close below the Monday low at 1.1137 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1182 and the post-CPI high at 1.1194 breaks the lower-highs chain
Lane (now) and Escrivá (17:30 UTC) are ECB speakers; hawkish lines with crowded EUR shorts could trigger a sharp snapback
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could extend or fade the CPI-driven USD bid
Lower highs and lower lows since CPI, Asian range broken.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3%) knocked EUR/USD out of the Asian range and through 1.1200. Since the post-CPI high at 1.1194, NY session has printed a clean chain of lower highs to a new session low at 1.1147. RSI(14) at 12.4 is deeply oversold, ATR has expanded to 8.4 pips, and price sits well below a falling ema20 at 1.1185.
Support: 1.11471, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.11854, 1.11944
What it said to watch
Lane speaks in ~15 min (16:45 UTC); hawkish lines on a December hike could spark a squeeze off the session low
Failure to hold the 1.1147 session low exposes the 1.1137 Monday low
Reclaim of the 1.1170 breakdown level would break the post-CPI lower-high chain
An ema20 retest near 1.1185 and the 1.1194 post-cpi hi are the next upside references
Bowman at 20:30 UTC is the next USD headline risk
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and still extending · RSI 13 · price 1.11525
Post-CPI lower-high chain, fresh session lows into London close.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3% f/c) broke the 1.1210 shelf. Price has since stepped lower in a clean lower-high chain through the NY session, printing a session low at 1.1152 with RSI(14) at an extreme 12.9 and ATR expanding to 8.4 pips. Overhead sit the 1.1170 breakdown and the 1.1183 lower high, while ema20 at 1.1189 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 1.1251–1.1152 drop.
Support: 1.11515, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.1183, 1.11892
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1183 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1152 session low exposes Monday's low at 1.1137
RSI at 12.9 is extreme; a stall at the session low with RSI lifting would mark exhaustion
Reclaiming the 1.1170 breakdown opens the ema20 / 38.2% fib zone near 1.1189
ECB's Lane at 16:45 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and extended · RSI 15 · price 1.11584
Lower highs from 1.1251 London high; session low 1.1155, no base yet.
Waller's 50bp warning at 09:00 UTC reversed the London rally from the 1.1251 London high. The hot US CPI (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) then broke the pair below 1.1200, and NY hours carved lower highs under the ema20 (1.1193) to a 1.1155 session low. RSI(14) at 14.7 is deeply oversold and ATR has widened to 8.4 pips, with price below both the ema20 and the ema50 (1.1208).
Support: 1.11549, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11786, 1.11931, 1.12076
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1155 session low exposes Monday's low at 1.1137
M15 close back above the 1.1179 cpi low would mark the post-CPI breakdown as stretched
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1193 breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the ema50 at 1.1208 in view
ECB's Lane at 16:45 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the CPI break below the Asian range.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke price through the Asian range and 1.1208. That extended a selloff that began at the 1.1251 London high when Waller spoke. Since the 1.1194 post-CPI high, NY hours have printed lower highs into a fresh 1.1168 session low, with RSI(14) at 17.3 deeply oversold, ATR(14) expanded to 7.9 pips and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11676, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1183, 1.11944, 1.11967
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.1168 session low extends the lower-high chain toward the 1.1150 round number.
An M15 close above the 1.1183 lower high would be the first break of the post-CPI sequence. The 1.1194 post-CPI high and ema20 at 1.1197 sit just above it.
A reclaim of the 38.2% selloff fib near 1.1200 and ema50 at 1.1210 would neutralise the downtrend read.
ECB's Lane speaks at 16:45 UTC (in ~1h), and Bowman is later in NY hours. Either could materially shift this read after London close.
15:41 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 20 · price 1.11758
Lower highs since London-open high; NY grinding fresh session lows below the Asian range.
The 1.1251 London-open high faded on Waller's speech. The sell-off then broke the 1.1216 Asian range low and cleared 1.1200 on the hot US CPI beat (0.4% vs 0.3%). NY is printing fresh session lows near 1.1175 below both EMAs, with RSI(14) oversold at 20, a minor bullish divergence against the post-CPI 18.4 low, and ATR(14) expanded to 7.8 pips.
Support: 1.11754, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11944, 1.11996, 1.12113
What it said to watch
ECB's Lane at 16:45 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
A close above the 1.1194 cpi bounce high, near the 23.6% fib of the sell-off, breaks the lower-high chain
ema20 at 1.1200 and ema50 at 1.1211 cap any recovery while price holds below them
Failure to hold the 1.1175 session low opens the path toward the 1.1137 monday low
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI leg stalling · RSI 23 · price 1.1183
Lower highs since London high; NY consolidating above the CPI low.
Waller's hawkish remarks capped the London high at 1.1251. The hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) then extended the slide through the asian low at 1.1216 and yesterday's 1.1190 area to a cpi low at 1.1179. Early NY is holding a tight 1.1179–1.1194 box below both EMAs, with RSI(14) oversold at 22.9 and ATR expanded to 7.9 pips from 5.2.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.1194, 1.1207, 1.1216
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1179 cpi low exposes Monday's low at 1.1137
M15 close above the 1.1194 cpi high opens a retrace toward the ema20 at 1.1207, near the 38.2% fib of the Waller-CPI leg
Asian low at 1.1216, with ema50 just below at 1.1216, caps any deeper retrace
ECB's Lane at 16:45 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs since London high; tight 1.1179–1.1194 box after CPI spike.
Waller's remarks capped the London high at 1.1251, and a hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 1.1208 floor down to a 1.1179 cpi low. Early NY session is holding a tight box under the 1.1194 post-cpi high. Price sits below the ema20 at 1.1210 and the ema50 at 1.1217, RSI(14) has recovered from 18 to 26.9 and is still oversold, and ATR has expanded to 7.6 pips.
Support: 1.11786, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11944, 1.1210, 1.12169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1179 cpi low resumes the CPI leg and puts the 1.1137 monday low in view
Recovery through the 1.1194 post-cpi hi toward the ema20 at 1.1210 would retrace the CPI break; the ema50 at 1.1217 caps above that
ECB's Lane at 16:45 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1251; Asian range broken lower; basing under prior low.
London faded the 1.1251 session high after Waller, breaking the Asian low at 1.1216, and the hot US CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) extended the selloff to the 1.1179 cpi low. In the first hour of NY, price is holding just under the prior-day low near 1.1190, with RSI(14) oversold at 23.3 and ATR up to 7.4 pips from 5.2.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1212, 1.1216
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1190 prior low would mark the CPI break as a possible false break
Failure to hold the 1.1179 cpi low exposes Monday's 1.1137 low
A recovery through the 1.1212 ema20 and 1.1216 Asian low would undo the post-Waller downtrend
ECB's Lane at 16:45 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift this read
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI leg oversold · RSI 18 · price 1.11868
Lower highs since the London high; Asian range and prior low broken.
Waller's hawkish remarks capped the 1.1251 London high and started a run of lower highs. Price then fell back through the 1.1216–1.1232 Asian range, and the hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove it through Monday's 1.1190 prior low to a 1.1179 cpi low in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) at 18.4 is deeply oversold, ATR has expanded to 7.3 pips, and price sits well below the ema20 at 1.1214.
Support: 1.11786, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11897, 1.12082, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1190 prior low would turn the CPI break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1179 cpi low opens Monday's low at 1.1137
Recovery through the 1.1208 pre-cpi low and the ema20 at 1.1214 would break the lower-highs trendline and neutralise the post-CPI leg
ECB's Lane speaks at 16:45 UTC and could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London high; Asian range and prior low broken.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) extended the London grind lower. Price broke the 1.1208 pre-CPI low and the 1.1190 prior low from Monday's NY session, then printed a 1.1179 CPI low with RSI(14) at 19.1 and ATR(14) expanding to 7.2 pips. Since Waller's remarks capped the 1.1251 London high, the session has been a chain of lower highs, and price now sits below the ema20 (1.1217) and ema50 (1.1220).
Support: 1.1179, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1208, 1.1217
What it said to watch
Holding back above the 1.1190 prior low would turn the CPI break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1179 CPI low exposes Monday's 1.1137 low
The 38.2% retracement of the London high-to-CPI low drop sits near 1.1206, in line with the pre-CPI low
A close above the ema20 at 1.1217 breaks the lower-highs trendline
ECB's Cipollone speaks at 14:00 UTC, with Lane at 16:45 UTC
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating on US CPI release · RSI 34 · price 1.11824
Lower highs from London high, CPI bar breaking Monday NY low.
The London high at 1.1251 faded after Waller's hawkish remarks, and price stepped through lower highs into a 1.1208 pre-CPI low. The still-forming US CPI bar has broken the 1.1190 Monday NY low and is down about 30 pips to 1.1179, with price below ema20 (1.1220) and ema50 (1.1222). RSI(14) was at 34.1 into the release, and ATR(14) of 5.2 pips is dwarfed by the release bar.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11897, 1.12082, 1.12203
What it said to watch
CPI actuals are not yet in the feed, and the release bar is still forming, so its low at 1.1179 (the cpi low) may extend
An M15 close back above the 1.1190 Monday NY low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1179 cpi low opens Monday's 1.1137 low
The 1.1208 pre-cpi low and ema20 at 1.1220 sit above as the first areas to watch for supply on any rebound
ECB's Cipollone at 14:00 UTC, in about 30 minutes, adds EUR headline risk during the first hour of NY
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, steady lower highs since London high · RSI 34 · price 1.12112
Lower highs/lower lows below Asian range, ATR compressing pre-CPI.
Waller's hawkish remarks triggered a rejection from the 1.1251 London high at 09:00 UTC. Price has since ground lower in a lower-high chain, slipped under the 1.1216 Asian low and now sits at a fresh session low near 1.1211, below both EMAs after an ema20/ema50 cross. RSI(14) is at 33.7 and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.2 pips heading into US CPI, with the 1.1200 round number just below.
Support: 1.12111, 1.1200, 1.11897
Resistance: 1.12158, 1.12212, 1.12511
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) lands within the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the Asian low at 1.1216 and ema20 at 1.1221 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number exposes yesterday's prior low near 1.1190
A retrace to the 38.2% of the Waller drop fib near 1.1227 is the first test of the down-leg; a reclaim of the 1.1251 London high negates it
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1251 London high; Asian range broken to the downside.
The London-open rally to 1.1251 reversed hard on Waller's hawkish CPI warning at 09:00 UTC. Lower highs since then have pushed price below the asian low at 1.1216 and under the ema20 (1.1222), which has just crossed below the ema50. The 1.1213 session low has held three tests into the NY open, with RSI(14) at 35.9 and ATR(14) compressing to 5.3 pips.
Support: 1.12126, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12158, 1.12222, 1.12317
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) is likely to dominate this read; ADP 4-week average lands 15 minutes earlier
An M15 close back above the 1.1216 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1213 session low exposes the 1.1200 psych level
A break of the lower highs line and a reclaim of the ema20 near 1.1222 would neutralise the intraday downtrend; the asian high at 1.1232 sits above
ECB's Cipollone at 14:00 UTC adds post-CPI headline risk
12:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London high · RSI 35 · price 1.12139
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 1.1251, now testing the Asian range low.
Early London ran to a 1.1251 london high before Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC triggered a 23-pip drop. Since then the pair has printed a chain of lower highs under a falling trendline and is now probing just below the 1.1216 asian low, trading under both EMAs. RSI(14) sits at 35 after cooling from 78, and ATR(14) is 5.5 pips heading into US CPI.
Support: 1.12126, 1.1200, 1.11897
Resistance: 1.12158, 1.1223, 1.12511
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~45 min), with ADP 4-week average at 13:15, can override this structure; ATR of 5.5 pips understates release volatility
Holding below the 1.1213 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1190 prior low
Recovery back above the 1.1216 asian low and the ema20 at 1.1223 breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
The 1.1251 london high caps the session; only a move back there undoes the post-Waller rejection
12:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London high, momentum soft · RSI 38 · price 1.12159
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1251 rejection; probing Asian-range low.
London's break above the Asian range peaked at the 1.1251 London high. Waller's tightening warning then drove a 23-pip rejection, and the Waller drop has since printed a chain of lower highs down to 1.1220. Price sits below the ema20 (1.1224) and EMA50 (1.1223), testing the Asian-range low just above the 1.1213 session low, with RSI(14) at 37.9 and ATR compressed to 5.6 pips into US CPI.
Support: 1.12127, 1.12088, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12198, 1.1224, 1.12511
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~1h): core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1220 lower high and the ema20 at 1.1224 breaks the lower-high line
Failure to hold the 1.1213 session low exposes the 1.1209 prior base from Monday's breakout and the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1251 London high would negate the rejection read
12:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend below both EMAs · RSI 40 · price 1.12178
Lower highs since London high, Asian low swept.
London broke the Asian high but was rejected at the 1.1251 London high as Waller's hawkish remarks hit around 09:00 UTC. RSI(14) fell from 77.9 to 40.3, and price has printed lower highs since, slipping below the 1.1216 Asian low to a 1.1214 session low before stalling just above it. ATR(14) has eased from 6.6 to 5.5 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.12158, 1.12139, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12236, 1.12317, 1.12511
What it said to watch
US CPI in ~74 min (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; ADP 4-week average lands ~15 min earlier
An M15 close back above the ema50 at 1.1224 and the 1.1225 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
A close below the 1.1214 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Reclaiming the 1.1232 Asian high would place price back above the Asian range
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high, Asian low pierced.
The London rally to the 1.12511 london high was rejected sharply during the ECB Lane and Fed Waller speeches. Price has since retraced the whole leg in a lower-high chain and printed a 1.12139 session low just under the Asian low. Price is below ema20 (1.12255) and ema50 (1.12238), with RSI(14) at 37.8 and ATR 5.7 pips going into US CPI.
Support: 1.12139, 1.1209, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12238, 1.12317, 1.12511
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC in about 89 min (core m/m f/c 0.2%), plus the ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read.
An M15 close above ema50 at 1.12238 and the lower-high line would break the descending sequence.
Acceptance below the 1.12139 session low exposes the 1.1209 ny base and the 1.1200 round number.
A reclaim of the 1.12317 asian high would put price back inside the London rally structure.
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London high · RSI 37 · price 1.12164
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1251, testing Asian low.
London extended above the Asian range to a 1.1251 London high, then a 23-pip rejection bar at 09:00 UTC, timed with Waller's scheduled speech, started a chain of lower highs. Late in the London morning price is back at the 1.1216 Asian low, below both EMAs. RSI(14) is 37.4, and ATR has eased to 5.8 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.12158, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12253, 1.12511
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and ADP at 13:15 could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1216 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1200 round number
Recovery above the ema50 at 1.1224 and the 1.1225 lower high breaks the lower highs sequence
A move back to the london high at 1.1251 would negate the post-rejection downtrend
11:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after London rejection · RSI 41 · price 1.12201
Lower highs from 1.1251, price back inside Asian range.
London's early push to 1.1251 was rejected in a single 23-pip drop as Fed's Waller spoke. Price has since retraced nearly the whole London rally back inside the Asian range, printing lower highs and tapping the 1.1218 London low twice, with RSI(14) cooled from 77 to 41 and price below both EMAs ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1216, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12246, 1.1232, 1.1251
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1218 London low and the 1.1216 Asian low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the ema50 at 1.1225 and the 1.1232 Asian high breaks the lower highs sequence
London high at 1.1251 is the upper boundary of today's session range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h) and the ADP release at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
London spike fully retraced, price back below both EMAs · RSI 44 · price 1.1223
False break above Asian range, now compressing between 1.1218 and 1.1225.
London open pushed EUR/USD above the Asian high at 1.1232 to a 1.1251 London high as the ECB's Lane spoke. The 09:00 UTC bar wiped out the gain in a 23-pip drop, and price is now coiling just above the 1.1218 London low and the 1.1216 Asian low, capped by the ema50 at 1.1225. RSI(14) has cooled from 77 to 44 and ATR(14) is 5.8 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1216, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12248, 1.1232, 1.1251
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h15m away; core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the main event risk for this read, with ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC
A close back above the Asian high at 1.1232 negates the false break and reopens the 1.1251 London high
Failure to hold the 1.1218 London low and 1.1216 Asian low exposes the 1.1200 round number
An M15 close above the ema50 at 1.1225 and the ema20 at 1.1228 would end the current compression
11:01 UTC
Intraday pullback after a failed London extension · RSI 44 · price 1.12241
Lower highs from 1.1251; back inside the Asian range.
London broke above the 1.1232 Asian high to a 1.1251 session high around Lane's remarks, with RSI(14) at 77. The 09:00 UTC bar then unwound 23 pips, a false break that put price back inside the Asian range, retracing most of the London rally. Price sits at 1.1224, just under the ema50 (1.1225) and ema20 (1.1229), with the 1.1218 London low holding so far and ATR at 6 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1216, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12248, 1.1232, 1.1251
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h; core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
A close back above the 1.1232 Asian high breaks the lower highs sequence from 1.1251
Failure to hold the 1.1218 London low and 1.1216 Asian low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Cipollone (14:00 UTC) and Lane (16:45 UTC) on a December ECB hike could add follow-through after CPI
10:46 UTC
Intraday pullback after a failed London push · RSI 43 · price 1.12224
Lower highs off the London high, back inside the Asian range.
Early London broke the Asian high at 1.1232 and ran to a 1.1251 London high, then the reversal from the first bar of the hour erased the move. That leaves price back inside the Asian range, under the ema50 at 1.1225 and the ema20 at 1.1229. Lower highs are capping the bounce off the 1.1218 session low, with RSI(14) at 42.8 after cooling from 77 and ATR(14) at 6.2 pips.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1216, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12249, 1.12321, 1.12513
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h45m) is the dominant risk and could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the ema50 and asian high at 1.1232 would break the lower-highs line and the 50% of the london drop fib (~1.1235)
Failure to hold the 1.1218 session low and 1.1216 asian low exposes the 1.1200 psych level
10:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after failed London push · RSI 41 · price 1.12221
False break above Asian range, back inside near the floor.
London pushed through the Asian range high near 1.1232 to a 1.1251 london high. The 09:00 UTC reversal, in the Waller speech slot, then retraced almost the full Asia-London rally, and price at 1.1222 sits below the ema50 (1.1225) and ema20 (1.1230). RSI(14) has cooled from 77 to 40.7, and ATR(14) has expanded to 6.3 pips from 3.6 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1230, 1.1251
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 asian low breaks the Asian range floor, leaving the 1.1200 round number as the next reference
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1230 returns price to the upper Asian range, with the 1.1251 london high back in view
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h, core MoM f/c 0.2%, headline 0.3%) could materially shift this read; ADP 4-week average at 13:15
London false break above Asian high, back inside Asian range.
London broke above the Asian high at 1.1232 and ran to a 1.1251 session high around Lane's remarks, with RSI(14) peaking at 77. The 09:00 UTC bar, as Waller spoke, reversed the whole leg, and price now sits below the ema50 at 1.1225 and the ema20 at 1.1231. Lower highs since then are pressing toward the 1.1216 Asian low, and ATR has widened to 6.6 pips from 3.3.
Support: 1.1216, 1.12052, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12251, 1.12321, 1.12513
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1216 Asian low exposes the 1.1205 NY base, where Monday's late-NY breakout started, and the 1.1200 psych level
Reclaiming the ema50 at 1.1225 and then the 1.1232 Asian high would neutralise the false-break read
The lower-highs line from the 1.1251 session high caps price while it holds
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is about 3h away and could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
London up-leg rejected, momentum reset to neutral · RSI 45 · price 1.12277
Failed extension above Asian range, price back at range top between EMAs.
London cleared the Asian range high near 1.1232 and ran to a 1.1251 session high, with RSI(14) reaching 77. The 09:00 UTC bar, during the Lane and Waller remarks, reversed about 23 pips, and the rally has since fully retraced. Price now sits below the ema20 at 1.1232 and just above the ema50 at 1.1225, with a lower high at 1.1238 and a London low at 1.1223, while ATR(14) has expanded to 6.4 pips.
Support: 1.12253, 1.12234, 1.1216
Resistance: 1.12323, 1.12377, 1.12513
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1223 london low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the asian low at 1.1216
Recovery above the 1.1238 lower high and the ema20 reopens the 1.1251 session high
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%, headline 0.3%) could materially shift this read
London rally fully retraced back inside the Asian range.
The London rally broke the Asian range top near 1.1232 and ran to a 1.1251 session high around Lane's remarks, with RSI(14) peaking at 77. The 09:00 UTC bar, around Waller's speech, then gave back nearly the whole move, putting price back inside the Asian range. Price now sits at the 1.1225 London low, below the EMA20 at 1.1233 and just under the EMA50 at 1.1225, with ATR(14) doubled to 6.6 pips.
Support: 1.12247, 1.1216
Resistance: 1.12329, 1.12513
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1225 london low exposes the 1.1216 asian low
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.1233 would weaken the false break read
Rejection or break at the 1.1251 session high defines the top of the day
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h45m) could materially shift this read
London broke above the Asian range, peaked at 1.1251, then a rejection returned price to the Asian range top.
Mid-London, the oil-driven EUR bid carried price from the Asian range top at 1.1232 to a 1.1251 session high. Price was then rejected in a single 23-pip bar around Waller's remarks, which reset RSI(14) from 77 to 50 and lifted ATR to 6.5 pips. Price is now retesting the old range top between the 1.1227 spike low and the 1.1234 ema20, with the 1.1238 bounce high capping the first recovery attempt.
Support: 1.12274, 1.12253, 1.1216
Resistance: 1.12337, 1.12377, 1.12513
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
A close below the 1.1227 spike low and the 1.1225 ema50 puts price back inside the Asian range, with 1.1216 the asian low beneath
A close back above the 1.1234 ema20 and the 1.1238 bounce high reopens the 1.1251 session high
Price is holding near the 78.6% retracement of the London leg; a failure there erases the breakout
09:16 UTC
Uptrend, sharp pullback from session high · RSI 50 · price 1.12335
HH/HL chain from Asia low; London breakout rejected back toward Asian range top.
London extended the Asian range breakout to a 1.1251 session high around Lane's speech. The 09:00 UTC bar, timed with Waller, then reversed 23 pips to a 1.1227 reversal low on the rising trendline from the Asia low, roughly a 61.8–68% fib retrace of the move. RSI(14) reset from 77 to 49.7 and ATR(14) has doubled to 6.4 pips; price sits below ema20 and above ema50.
Support: 1.12274, 1.1225, 1.1216
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.12471, 1.12513
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1225 (ema50) and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain and exposes the 1.1216 asia low
Reclaim of 1.1234 ema20 puts the 1.1247 prior high and 1.1251 session high back in focus
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) is likely to override the intraday structure
London break above Asian high, now rejecting from 1.1251.
London cleared the asian high at 1.1232 and ran to a 1.1251 session high, with RSI(14) at 77 into the 08:45 close and ATR expanding to 5.1 pips. EUR was carried by the oil slump and Lane's hawkish line. The forming 09:00 bar has dropped ~16 pips to 1.1235 as Waller speaks, putting price back on the ema20 between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the asia-london leg.
Support: 1.12343, 1.12321, 1.12248
Resistance: 1.12471, 1.12513
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.1232 turns the London breakout into a false break and exposes the ema50 near 1.1225
Recovery through the 1.1247 prior high reopens the 1.1251 session high
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 74 · price 1.12447
London broke above the Asian range, higher lows, session high tested twice.
London open broke the Asian high at 1.1232 and pushed price to a session high of 1.1247 on the oil-led USD softness, with RSI(14) at 74 and ATR up from 3.2 to 5 pips. Two dips held the London low at 1.1236, and price is pausing just under the 1.1250 round number while the ema20 at 1.1233 rises toward the Asian high.
Support: 1.12364, 1.12321, 1.1216
Resistance: 1.12471, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC; Fed hike signalling could move USD before CPI
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for this structure
An M15 close above the 1.1247 session high opens the 1.1250 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1236 London low puts the 50–61.8% London leg fib near 1.1235–1.1232 in play
A return below the Asian high and ema20 at ~1.1232 undoes the breakout; the Asian low at 1.1216 sits below
London open broke the Asian high at 1.1227 and ran to a 1.1247 session high. The 1.1236 pullback low held and price is back near the high, with RSI(14) at 71.4 and ATR expanding to 5 pips as oil-driven USD softness carries into US CPI. Price sits above the rising ema20 at 1.1231, with higher lows intact since the 1.1217 Asian low.
Support: 1.12364, 1.12311, 1.12267
Resistance: 1.12471, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1247 session high puts the 1.1250 round number in play
Failure to hold the 1.1236 pullback low exposes the ema20 at 1.1231 and the 1.1227 asian high
A break back inside the Asian range below 1.1227 would mark the London breakout as a false break
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could shift this read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the main event risk for the session
Asian range broken higher in London, higher-low chain intact.
London open broke the 1.1216–1.1232 Asian range higher as oil-relief USD softness extended. Price printed a 1.1247 session high, then left an upper wick, and RSI(14) eased from 71.3 to 69.2 while ATR expanded to 4.9 pips. Price sits above the ema20 at 1.1230, with the asian high and the 50% fib of the Asia-low-to-session-high move just beneath and rising support from the overnight lows still intact.
Support: 1.1232, 1.1230, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.1247, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1232 asian high and ema20 at 1.1230 would turn the London move into a false break
M15 close above the 1.1247 session high opens the 1.1250 round number
Loss of the ema50 at 1.1222, near Monday's late-NY highs, breaks the rising support and the higher-low chain
De Guindos (08:30 UTC) and Waller (09:00 UTC) could jolt the London session
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main event risk and could materially shift this read
London-open breakout above Asian range, higher highs and higher lows.
London open took EURUSD through the Asian high at 1.1227 and the 1.1232 prior high to a session high at 1.1243, extending a chain of rising lows off 1.1217, with the softer-dollar backdrop into US CPI still in place. RSI(14) at 71.3 is hot but not extreme, ATR has expanded to 4.5 pips from 3.2, and price holds above a rising ema20 at 1.1229.
Support: 1.12321, 1.12265, 1.12224
Resistance: 1.12426, 1.1250
What it said to watch
A pullback that holds the 1.1232 prior high or ema20 near 1.1229 keeps the breakout intact.
An M15 close back below the 1.1227 asian high would mark a false break and return price to the Asian range.
A break of the rising lows trendline and the 1.1222 swing low would end the higher-low sequence.
Session high at 1.1243 sits below the 1.1250 round number, the next area to watch for rejection or break.
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC can jolt the move. US CPI at 13:30 UTC could reset the intraday structure.
Higher highs and higher lows since 05:30 UTC; London open broke out above the overnight range.
The London open pushed through the pre-London prior high at 1.1232 to a session high of 1.1240. That extends a higher-low chain off the 1.1222 swing low along a rising trendline. RSI(14) sits at 69.5 and ATR has expanded to 4.5 pips, with price above the ema20 (1.12275) and ema50 against a softer USD backdrop ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.1232, 1.12275, 1.12224
Resistance: 1.12404, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.1232 prior high on a retest keeps the breakout intact; a slip back below returns price to the overnight range
An M15 close below the rising trendline and ema20 near 1.1228 breaks the higher-low chain
A close above the 1.1240 session high opens the 1.1250 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1222 swing low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
ECB's Sleijpen (08:15 UTC), De Guindos (08:30) and Fed's Waller (09:00) could jolt the London session
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia, London open broke the Asian high.
London open pushed EUR/USD through the Asian high at 1.1232 to a 1.12385 London high. That extends the higher-low chain off the 1.1216 Asian low as the dollar stays soft ahead of US CPI. Price holds above a rising ema20 at 1.12262 and the ema50, with RSI(14) 65.4 short of stretched and ATR lifting to 4.2 pips from 3.2.
Support: 1.12321, 1.12262, 1.1216
Resistance: 1.12385, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1232 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Break of the rising trendline and ema20 near 1.1226 ends the Asia higher-low sequence
Clearance of the 1.12385 london high puts the 1.1250 round number in play
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and ECB's Sleijpen/De Guindos from 08:15 UTC could jolt the London range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this read
07:16 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows into London open · RSI 60 · price 1.12301
Break above Asian range; higher lows under flat 1.1232 session high.
Monday's late-NY lift through 1.1205, on softer oil and Iran headlines, held through Asia in a 1.1216–1.1227 range. Price broke above the Asian high before London and is pressing the 1.1232 session high at London open, with higher lows stacked from the 1.1222 swing low and the ema20 rising beneath. RSI(14) is at 59.9 and ATR has edged up to 3.9 pips.
Support: 1.12253, 1.12224, 1.1216
Resistance: 1.12323, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1232 session high extends the higher-high chain toward 1.1250 psych
Close back below the ema20 / 1.1227 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Loss of the 1.1222 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.1216 asian low
ECB De Guindos at 08:30 UTC and Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC could move price off the session high
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain through Asia, testing session high at London open.
Monday's late-NY breakout above 1.1205 held through Asia. Higher lows off the 1.1216 Asian low have lifted price into the 1.1232 session high at London open, with softer oil and a sub-102 DXY keeping USD offered. Price sits above the ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) is 57 and ATR is 3.8 pips, so the move is a slow grind rather than an extended push.
Support: 1.12248, 1.1216, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.1232, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1232 session high extends the higher-low chain toward the 1.1250 round number
Break of rising support and the ema20 near 1.1225 turns the read back to the Asian range
Loss of the 1.1216 Asian low puts the 1.1205 breakout base back in play
ECB De Guindos 08:30 and Fed Waller 09:00 UTC, with US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia, capped at 1.1232 Asian high.
Monday's oil-led bounce on US-Iran headlines lifted EURUSD from 1.1165 to 1.1224 late NY. Asia has built a higher-low chain off the 1.1216 Asian low into a 1.1232 Asian high, with price holding above a rising ema20 (1.12245) and ema50 (1.12182). RSI(14) 56.8 is neutral and ATR(14) has edged up to 3.9 pips into the London open.
Support: 1.12245, 1.12224, 1.1216
Resistance: 1.12321, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 higher low breaks the Asian trendline and the HL chain, exposing the 1.1216 Asian low
Acceptance above the 1.1232 Asian high opens the 1.1250 round number
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could shift USD before CPI
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially change this read
HH/HL chain through Asia, pullback from session high.
Monday's late-NY leg from 1.1205 to 1.1224, tied to oil-led USD weakness, has held through Asia, with higher lows off the 1.1216 asian low. A rejection at the 1.12321 session high pulled price back toward the ema20 at 1.12241 into the London open, RSI(14) neutral at 54.6 and ATR(14) a tight 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.12241, 1.12226, 1.1216
Resistance: 1.12321
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.12226 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and the rising support line
Close above the 1.12321 session high resumes the HH sequence
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 62 · price 1.12285
HH/HL chain from 1.1216 asian low, pressing session high.
The Asia session has stacked higher lows off the 1.1216 asian low and cleared Monday's late-NY 1.1225 spike high, which came as Iran headlines softened the dollar. Price sits at 1.1229 above the ema20 (1.1224) and a rising trendline, just under the 1.1232 asian high, with RSI(14) at 62 and ATR at 3.8 pips. London open is about 45 minutes out.
Support: 1.12239, 1.12224, 1.1216
Resistance: 1.12321, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1232 asian high extends the Asian leg toward the 1.1250 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1222 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, leaving the 1.1216 asian low exposed
A deeper fib pullback of the Asian leg into the ema20 near 1.1224 would test whether the HL structure holds
ECB De Guindos (08:30 UTC) and Fed Waller (09:00 UTC) could shift the read ahead of London midday
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the main risk and could materially shift this read
Tight 1.1216–1.1230 Asian range, higher lows, top rejected.
EUR/USD has held a tight Asian range since Monday's late-NY jump on oil/Iran relief. The push to the 1.1230 asia high was rejected back to the ema20 at 1.1223, near the 50% of the asia leg fib, with RSI(14) cooled to 54 and ATR(14) compressed at 3.5 pips. Asian higher lows off the 1.1216 asia low, where the ema50 sits at 1.1217, remain intact.
Support: 1.12232, 1.1216, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.12302, 1.12265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1230 asia high cancels the rejection read; the 1.1226 prior high is the first hurdle
M15 close below the 1.1216 asia low breaks the Asian higher lows and exposes the 1.1205 breakout base from Monday NY
ECB De Guindos at 08:30 UTC and Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the compressed range in London
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for this read
05:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in Asian range · RSI 52 · price 1.12228
Tight Asian range 1.1216–1.1230 above Monday's NY breakout.
Monday's oil-led USD slide lifted EUR/USD from 1.1159 to a late-NY high near 1.1225, and Asia has since held a tight 1.1216–1.1230 range. The Asian high at 1.1230 drew a rejection in the last half hour, putting price back under the NY high and flat against EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1230 asian high breaks the Asian range higher
Loss of the 1.1216 asian low exposes the 50% retracement of the NY leg fib and the 1.1200 round number
ECB's De Guindos (08:30 UTC) and Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) speak during London morning
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read and override the Asian range
05:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in late Asia · RSI 63 · price 1.1229
Higher lows off 1.1216 Asian low, fresh break above 1.1225 prior high.
Monday's London-NY rally from 1.1158 ran to 1.1225 after NY close on a softer USD, with lower oil and US-Iran deal hopes driving it. Asia held a 1.1216–1.1227 range. Late-session higher lows then lifted price through the 1.1225 prior high to a new session high at 1.1230, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1216, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1225 prior high would turn the break into a false break
Loss of the 1.1216 asian low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1200 round number
A sustained hold above the 1.1230 session high into London open opens the path to the 1.1250 round number
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 58 · price 1.12258
Tight Asian range 1.1216–1.1229 above Monday's late-NY high.
The Monday rally from 1.1158 extended into a late-NY spike to the 1.1225 prior high as the USD softened on US-Iran and oil headlines. Asia has held a 1.1216–1.1229 range, with buyers defending the Asian low twice before a marginal new session high at the 1.1229 Asian high. RSI(14) sits near 58 and ATR(14) is about 2.8 pips, a quiet tape late in Asia ahead of London and US CPI.
Support: 1.12249, 1.1216, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12288
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1229 Asian high extends the uptrend sequence beyond the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.1225 prior high puts price back mid-range
Break of the 1.1216 Asian low after two tests opens a deeper retracement of the Monday rally toward the 1.1200 round number
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 65 · price 1.1228
Tight Asian range 1.1216–1.1227, late-Asia push to a fresh session high.
Monday's rally, driven by oil weakness that pushed the USD lower, took EURUSD from 1.1158 to above 1.1220 late in NY hours, and the pair then held a tight 1.1216–1.1227 Asian range. Late Asia has nudged price to a fresh session high at 1.1228, just over the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 65 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 1.12265, 1.1216, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12281, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.1226 Asian high would mark the push as a false break
Failure at the 1.1216 Asian low reopens the 1.1200 round number, near the 38.2% fib of Monday's rally
Hold above the 1.1228 session high puts the 1.1250 psych level next in view
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalled into a tight range · RSI 53 · price 1.12255
Asian range 1.1216–1.12265 holding above late-NY breakout.
Asia session is coiling in a 10-pip band between the 1.1216 asian low and the 1.12265 asian high, after a late-NY breakout above 1.1209 on Iran-deal-driven USD weakness. Price is pressing the asian high again. ATR(14) near 3 pips shows pre-CPI compression, and the 38.2% retracement of the Monday rally sits near 1.1200.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1209
Resistance: 1.12265, 1.1230
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.12265 asian high and the 1.1230 round number would extend the Monday rally structure
Loss of the 1.1216 asian low exposes the 1.1209 ny breakout base
London open with Eurogroup at 07:00 UTC, then Waller at 09:00 UTC
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 1.1216–1.1227 above the late-NY breakout.
The Monday rally from 1.1157 ran through London and NY as USD softened on US-Iran deal hopes. A late-NY spike cleared the 1.1205 prior range top, and price has since compressed into a 1.1216–1.1227 Asian range. The asia low was tested twice and held, RSI(14) sits neutral near 48 and ATR is about 3 pips as the pair coils into US CPI.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 asia low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.1205 prior range top
M15 close above the 1.1227 asia high opens the path toward the 1.1250 round number
A move back under 1.1205 would retrace a meaningful share of the Monday rally fib
London open in ~2.5h, likely to resolve the Asian range
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalled in tight range · RSI 56 · price 1.12237
Compressed Asian range 1.1216–1.1227 above the late-NY breakout.
Monday's rally from 1.1156 on the broad USD slide (Iran-deal hopes, lower oil) jumped through 1.1209 late in NY. It has since compressed into a 1.1216–1.1227 Asian range, with the asian low sitting on the 23.6% fib of the day rally. ATR(14) near 3 pips shows pre-CPI compression mid-way through the Asia session, price hugging the asian high.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1209
Resistance: 1.12265, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1227 asian high and the 1.1230 round number extends the uptrend sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1216 asian low exposes the 1.1209 brkout base near the 38.2% fib
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Uptrend stalled, flat in late Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.12223
Tight Asian range 1.1216–1.1227 above the 1.1200 break level.
Monday's climb from 1.1155 cleared 1.1200 in NY hours and jumped to 1.1225 late on oil and US-Iran relief, then went flat. Late Asia is boxed in a 1.1216 asian low to 1.1227 asian high band, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR(14) about 3 pips, holding above the 1.1200 round number ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.1216, 1.12082, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12265, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 asian low exposes the 50% fib of the NY leg at 1.1208 and the 1.1200 round number
Break above the 1.1227 asian high resumes the upleg toward the 1.1250 round number
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; London open may set the range break first
03:46 UTC
Uptrend paused, flat in Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.1223
Tight Asian range below NY high after late-NY breakout.
The Monday rally from 1.1151 extended through a late-NY breakout from 1.1205 and stalled at the 1.1225 NY high. Asia has compressed into an 11-pip 1.1216–1.1227 range, with the asian low tested twice. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 as the USD firms ahead of today's US CPI.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1205, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1227
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1227 asian high breaks the Asian range and clears the ny high
Failure to hold the 1.1217 asian low exposes the 1.1205 ny breakout base and the 1.1200 round number
ECB's De Guindos at 08:30 UTC and Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian compression
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read; core m/m forecast is 0.2%
Late-NY spike from the 1.1205 spike base to 1.1224 extended Monday's oil-relief and US-Iran-driven EUR gains. Asia is now compressing between the 1.12167 Asian low, which sits on the 38.2% of the spike fib, and the 1.12265 Asian high, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and the USD firming ahead of CPI.
Support: 1.12167, 1.1205, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12167 asian low exposes the 1.1205 spike base and the 1.1200 round number
Close above the 1.12265 asian high resumes the HH chain
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend paused, flat in Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.12206
Tight Asian range above the 1.1209 breakout level.
A late-NY spike at 19:30 UTC took the pair from the 1.1209 breakout level to 1.1225, extending Monday's oil-relief rally. Asia has since held a 4–5 pip-ATR range between the 1.1216 Asian low and the 1.12265 Asian high, with RSI(14) flat near 48 and price pinned at EMA20. The Asian low sits on the 38.2% fib of the evening leg, while the USD firms ahead of today's US CPI.
Support: 1.1216, 1.12088, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 Asian low and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1209 breakout level, then the 1.1200 round number
M15 close above the 1.12265 Asian high breaks the range top and resumes the higher-high chain
London open in ~4h, with ECB De Guindos at 08:30 and Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC, likely to set the session range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts 1.1200 in play
Tight Asian range 1.1216–1.1227 above late-NY breakout base.
The late-NY spike through the 1.1205 break base came on the oil/US-Iran relief leg. It has stalled into a narrow Asian range, and an early-Asia poke above the 1.1225 prior high to the 1.12265 Asian high was rejected. Price is holding near the 23.6% level of the rally fib (~1.1218) with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and ATR(14) at about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1205, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12249, 1.12265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 Asian low opens the 1.1205 break base and the 1.1200 round number, where the 38.2% of the rally fib sits close by at ~1.1212
Close above the 1.12265 Asian high clears the prior high cap and ends the consolidation read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC is an early catalyst for a move out of the Asian range
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; the digest frames 1.1200 as the line in focus after the print
Tight 1.1216–1.1227 box after NY spike; Asia drifting to range floor.
Monday's late-NY spike from the 1.1202 spike base to 1.1224, on oil relief and US-Iran deal hopes, has stalled into a tight box. Asia's push to the 1.1227 asian high briefly cleared the late-NY highs, then reversed in a false break as USD firmed into CPI. Price is back at the 1.1216 asian low and the 38.2% spike fib, with ATR compressed near 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1214, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1227
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 asian low opens the 50% fib at 1.1214 and the 1.1202 spike base
Reclaim of the 1.1227 asian high negates the false break and reopens the late-NY spike highs
Waller at 09:00 UTC and ECB De Guindos at 08:30 UTC precede US CPI at 13:30 UTC; CPI could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend paused, sideways in Asia · RSI 50 · price 1.1222
Tight Asian range above late-NY breakout.
The late-NY jump from 1.1205 on oil-relief and Iran headlines has stalled into a 1.1216–1.1227 Asian range. Price sits mid-range at 1.1222 with RSI(14) flat near 50, and the Asian low held at the 38.2% fib of the 1.1202–1.1227 leg. No setup in play mid-Asia, with the USD firming slightly ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1209, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 Asian low opens the 1.1209 prior high, then the 1.1200 round number
Break and hold above the 1.1227 Asian high extends the higher-high chain from the NY spike
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Uptrend paused, ranging in Asia · RSI 51 · price 1.12204
Tight Asian range after late-NY spike; false break above NY high.
The late-NY spike from 1.1205 has flattened into a 1.1216–1.12265 Asian range, with the Asian low sitting at the 50% of the spike fib. The Asian high briefly cleared the 1.1225 NY high before slipping back toward 1.1220 as USD firms ahead of US CPI. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1205, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12249, 1.12265
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1216 Asian low (50% of spike fib) exposes the 1.1205 breakout base and the 1.1200 round number
M15 close above the 1.12265 Asian high invalidates the false break read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.12223
HH/HL chain from Monday; tight Asian range above 1.1200.
Monday's London-NY rally from 1.1151 built a HH/HL chain to a late-NY high at 1.1225 as the oil slide weighed on USD. Asia has held a 10-pip box between the 1.1216 asian low and the 1.1226 asian high, just above the 1.1200 pivot. RSI(14) is flat near 54 as the dollar firms ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.12158, 1.1200, 1.11897
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 asian low breaks the rising support line and exposes the 1.1200 pivot, near the 61.8% of the NY leg
Close above the 1.1226 asian high clears the ny high and extends the HH chain
Loss of the 1.1190 swing low would end the Monday HH/HL sequence
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range on top of Monday's rally, higher lows intact.
The Monday rally ran from 1.1151 in Asia through London and NY. It cleared 1.1200 as oil slid on US-Iran deal hopes and the USD softened, then a late-NY leg reached the 1.12245 Monday high. Asia has held a 1.1216–1.1226 range. A poke to the 1.12264 Asian high met rejection back to 1.1221, leaving price on rising support near 1.1219 with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 1.12158, 1.12085, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 Asian low and rising support exposes the 1.1209 breakout lvl and 1.1200 psych
Acceptance above the 1.12264 Asian high and Monday high resumes the higher-high sequence
ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC and Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian range around London open
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the dominant risk to this read
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, extending in Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.12261
The 24h rally broke above 1.1200 in late NY as Iran-deal hopes knocked oil and the dollar, spiking from the 1.1204 spike base. The pair then held a tight 1.1216–1.1224 consolidation. Early Asia dipped to the 1.1216 Asian low before demand returned, and the latest bar is pressing through the 1.1224 range top to a 1.1226 session high with RSI(14) near 58 and not stretched.
Support: 1.12245, 1.12158, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1224 range top turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1216 Asian low reopens the 1.1204 spike base
Hold above the 1.1226 session high puts the 1.1250 round number in view
Fed Waller 09:00 UTC and ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC before US CPI at 13:30 UTC; CPI could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 1.12158–1.12236 beneath 1.12245 prior high, above 1.1200 breakout.
EUR/USD extended Monday's rally from 1.11499 as the dollar slid on Iran de-escalation, clearing the 1.1200 round number in NY and spiking to the 1.12245 prior high late session. Asia is holding a narrow 1.12158–1.12236 range just under that high, with RSI(14) near 54 and ATR about 3 pips. Price is well above the spike base at 1.12088 and the 23.6% rally fib near 1.1207.
Support: 1.12158, 1.12088, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12245 prior high extends the Monday rally
Break of the 1.12158 asian low exposes the 1.12088 spike base
Loss of the 1.1200 round number negates the NY breakout
Waller 09:00 UTC and ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC could shift this read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a move out of the Asian range
Post-breakout range 1.1216–1.1225 with lower highs since rollover.
Monday's oil- and Iran-driven USD slide lifted EUR from the 1.1147 Asian low through 1.1200 round number in NY, with a late-NY breakout from the 1.1209 breakout base to a 1.12245 day high. Early Asia is drifting to the 1.1216 range low on lower highs, RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 3 pips. Price holds above the 23.6% fib of the day's rally.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1209, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 range low exposes the 1.1209 breakout base and the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.12245 day high reopens the 1.1250 psych level
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 45 · price 1.12163
Post-breakout consolidation; Asian range low slipping.
Monday's climb from 1.1146 cleared 1.1200 resistance as oil and Iran relief weighed on the dollar, and a late-NY spike set a 1.1224 day high. The Asian session has drifted lower, and the last bar slipped under the 1.1218 Asian low to test the 38.2% fib near 1.1216. RSI(14) sits around 45 and ATR is just over 3 pips, so the move is a quiet one.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1205, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1224
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1218 Asian low restores the post-spike range read
Loss of the 50% fib at 1.1213 exposes the 1.1205 breakout shelf from late NY
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number unwinds Monday's breakout
ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC and Waller at 09:00 UTC could shift the read during London hours
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst for this structure
A late-NY spike on broad USD softness cleared 1.1200 and printed a 1.1224 session high. Price has since held a 7-pip band through rollover, with the early Asian low at 1.1217 now tested. RSI(14) near 44 and price slipping under EMA20 point to fading momentum, with the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1190 NY pullback low below.
Support: 1.12174, 1.1200, 1.11897
Resistance: 1.12245
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1217 asian low opens a retest of the 1.1200 round number, near the 50-61.8% zone of the NY spike fib
Failure to hold 1.1200 puts the 1.1190 ny pullback low back in play and negates the breakout
Close above the 1.1224 session high resumes the HH sequence
Waller 09:00 UTC and US CPI 13:30 UTC later today could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below the high · RSI 44 · price 1.12177
Post-breakout consolidation above 1.1200, testing range low.
The Monday rally from the 1.1146 Asia low cleared the 1.1200 breakout level in late NY as softer oil and yields weighed on USD, topping at the 1.12245 session high. Price has since compressed in a 1.1218–1.1224 band and is pressing the range low in early Asia, slipping under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.12174, 1.1205, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1217 range low exposes the 1.1205 ny shelf, then the 1.1200 breakout level for a retest
Reclaim of the 1.12245 session high resumes the higher-high chain toward the 1.1250 round number
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) and Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC
Higher lows through London and NY, then a tight flag below the session high.
EUR/USD built rising lows through London and NY as the USD slid on US-Iran relief, then broke the 1.1200 area in a late-NY spike to a 1.12245 session high. The Asian range is compressed at 1.12177–1.12236, holding above the breakout level near 1.1204, while RSI(14) sits mid-range and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12177, 1.12035
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.12177 asian low exposes the 1.1204 breakout level and the 50% ny leg fib near 1.1205
An M15 close above the 1.12245 session high extends the uptrend toward the 1.1250 round number
A break of the rising lows trendline would end the intraday higher-low chain
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC and ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC, could materially shift this read