EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Friday, 10 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
17:01 UTC
Recovery, grinding higher within range · RSI 55 · price 1.14368
Higher lows off mid-June base, capped near range top.
EURUSD carved a rounded bottom off the mid-June 1.1324 low and has ground back up through the 38.2% retrace of the 1.1621-1.1324 decline, now pinned near the middle of a 1.1360-1.1475 range. Higher lows are intact and price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50, but the weekly high at 1.1450 and the 1.1475 range cap remain unbroken. Soft US data and a less-hawkish FOMC read have kept the dollar heavy, though the euro stays range-bound with July's ECB pause fully priced.
Support: 1.1405, 1.1390, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1475 range cap invalidates the range read and opens the yield-spread recovery path
Failure to hold 1.1405 intraday sup exposes 1.1390 range pivot and the 1.1360 range floor
US CPI Tue could materially shift this read via the dollar
EURUSD has clawed back from the 1.1325 swing low into a grind higher, carving higher lows while capped near the 1.1460 weekly high — the pair remains range-bound between the 1.1360 range floor and that top, as the digest notes. ATR(14) sits modest around 22 pips, consistent with compression at the range highs. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50 after the base built through late June.
Support: 1.1405, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1460 opens the path toward the 1.1475 two-week top
Failure to hold 1.1405 exposes the 1.1360 range floor
US CPI Tue 14 Jul could materially shift this read
EUR/USD carved a base near 1.1325 in mid-window and has since recovered into a 1.1400-1.1460 range, printing a series of higher lows. ATR(14) has compressed toward 20 pips as price coils just above the 1.1390/1.1410 pivot and below the 1.1472 range top. Soft-but-in-line euro-area CPI and less-hawkish FOMC minutes keep the pair two-way inside this band.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1460
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1472 range top opens the mid-1.14s
Loss of the 1.1390/1.1410 pivot exposes the 1.1325 swing low
US CPI Jul 14 could break the ATR compression
13:01 UTC
Recovery within broader range · RSI 53 · price 1.1431
Consolidation above early-July low, higher lows.
EUR/USD recovered off the early-July low at 1.1327 and has since coiled into a 1.1390–1.1460 range, tracking EMA20/EMA50 closely. ATR(14) compression points to a breakout pending as price grinds sideways. Soft-but-in-line EU inflation and a softer USD on less-hawkish FOMC minutes keep this two-way sub-1.1475.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1327
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1460 opens the 1.1475 cap
Loss of 1.1390 pivot exposes the 1.1327 swing low
US CPI Jul 14 is the catalyst that could break this range
EURUSD bottomed at 1.1325 in late June and has since recovered into a tight range between 1.1408 and the 1.1460 weekly high, with ATR(14) compressing near 19 pips — a sign of a breakout pending. Soft USD following the less-hawkish FOMC minutes plus hawkish-ECB repricing have underpinned the bounce, though follow-through above 1.1460 is lacking. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50 while price sits mid-range, near the 38.2% retracement of the prior decline.
Support: 1.1408, 1.1393, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1460 weekly high opens path toward the 1.1472 swing high
Failure to hold 1.1408 range low exposes the 1.1393 swing low
Higher lows since 1.1325, consolidating low-1.14s.
EUR clawed back off the 1.1325 swing low and is now consolidating in the low-1.14s, holding a series of higher lows while capped near 1.1460. Price sits right at the 38.2% retrace of the 1.1620-1.1325 decline, with soft USD post-FOMC minutes underpinning the drift. ATR(14) has compressed as the range tightens beneath the weekly high.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1460 weekly high opens the path to the 1.1472 recovery high
Failure to hold 1.1410 range floor exposes the 1.1325 swing low
US CPI Tue 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Recovery within larger downtrend, now ranging · RSI 54 · price 1.14485
Higher lows off 1.1325, consolidating 1.140-1.147.
EURUSD carved a low at 1.1325 mid-window and has since recovered in a rounded-base fashion, printing higher lows and reclaiming both EMA20 and EMA50. Price is now consolidating in a 1.140-1.147 range, capped by the 1.1470 swing high which aligns with the 50% retrace of the 1.162-1.1325 impulse leg. The context stays range-bound: ECB hawkish repricing is offset by the dominant Fed story, with German HICP the near catalyst.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1520
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1470 opens the 50% retrace zone toward 1.1520
loss of the 1.1410/1.1390 support reopens the 1.1325 cycle low; a break targets 1.1210
German HICP at 06:00 UTC could shift the near-term read
05:02 UTC
Recovery off June low, consolidating · RSI 57 · price 1.14485
Higher-lows since 1.1325, capped near 1.1460.
EUR/USD has clawed back from the mid-June slide to 1.1325 and is now grinding sideways in a tight 1.1408-1.1460 band, riding above both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 20 pips, a marked contraction from the 100-pip swings earlier in the window, consistent with a breakout-pending setup. Price sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the 1.1621-1.1325 impulse leg, with the ECB-hawkish/Fed-dominant standoff keeping the pair range-bound.
Support: 1.1408, 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1472
What it said to watch
German HICP at 06:00 UTC (f/c 2.4%) — near catalyst that could resolve the range
H4 close above 1.1460 opens the path toward the 1.1472 june high
Loss of the 1.1408 swing low exposes the 1.1390 support zone
EURUSD carved higher lows off the 1.1325 base and has recovered into a 1.1390-1.1450 range, with EMA20 back above EMA50 after the mid-window selloff. Price is consolidating just under the 1.1450 cap and ATR(14) near 19 pips shows compression from the earlier expansion. The hawkish-ECB repricing supports the base but the Fed story keeps the range top intact.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1450 breaks the range top toward 1.1472
Clean break of the 1.1390 support zone opens the path to 1.1325
German HICP at 06:00 UTC and US CPI on Jul 14 could shift this read
01:01 UTC
Recovery off lows, now rangebound · RSI 49 · price 1.14319
Higher lows since 1.1325, capped near 1.1450.
Price bottomed at 1.1325 in mid-June and has ground higher into a tight 1.1410-1.1450 consolidation, with higher lows tracing a shallow support line. ATR is easing as the range compresses, sitting just above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI flat near 50 — consistent with the digest's two-way, hawkish-ECB-vs-hawkish-Fed standoff. Price is mid-range at 1.1432 with no clean directional break yet.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1472
What it said to watch
Clean break below 1.1410/1.1390 support zone opens the path toward 1.1210
H4 close above 1.1450 range top exposes the 1.1472 swing high
German HICP in ~5h and US CPI Tue could break the range