EUR/USD has been carving a six-week downtrend off the April peak near 1.1849, printing successive lower highs and now pressing the 1.1500 april trough after breaking the 1.16 floor. Price sits below a falling EMc(50) with RSI near 37, reflecting the EUR-soft, USD-firm backdrop as hot US PPI/CPI feed the dollar while a fully-priced ECB hike leaves the euro without a fresh catalyst. The 1.1570 cap has repeatedly contained recovery attempts, with prior demand at the 1.1685 prior high now well above market.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1410
Resistance: 1.1570, 1.1685
What it said to watch
Daily close below 1.1500 april trough opens the path toward 1.1410 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.1570 cap would challenge the lower-high sequence
Friday final HICP and ECB Nagel could shift the EUR leg of this read
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, pressing lows · RSI 38 · price 1.1521
Lower highs, testing 1.1500 pivot.
Downtrend in force since the April peak near 1.1849, with a clean chain of lower highs and price held below EMA(50) on D1 for roughly six weeks. The last four sessions have coiled just above the 1.1500 April trough, with rejection capping rallies near 1.1565 — the ING-cited level that needs a hawkish ECB hint to clear. Soft Eurozone GDP and German orders against firm US PPI (6.5% y/y) keep EUR/USD heavy under the moving averages.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1565, 1.1849
What it said to watch
D1 close below 1.1500 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.1400
Reclaim of 1.1565 needed to ease the lower-high structure
Fri HICP and US Michigan sentiment could shift this read