After the weekend gap higher, EUR/USD pushed to a 10-day high at 1.1622 on the US-Iran framework deal, the oil drop and broad USD weakness, but the advance has been underwhelming and rolled back under 1.1600 through the NY session. Price now sits below EMA(20) with RSI(14) under 50, having lost the 1.1600 psych handle and basing around the 1.1584 session low. The 1.1555 support flagged for this week is the next reference below.
Support: 1.1584, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1622
What it said to watch
Wednesday FOMC is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
German CPI / ZEW Tuesday could reinforce or break the sub-1.1600 read
Reclaiming 1.1600 on a close would re-engage the 1.1622 week high
Failure to hold 1.1584 opens the path toward 1.1555 support
10-day high tagged, lower highs forming below EMA20.
EURUSD gapped higher at this week's open and rallied to a 10-day high at 1.1622 as the US-Iran framework deal sank oil and drained the safe-haven dollar bid. The advance has since stalled — price has slipped back under EMA20 with RSI cooling toward 42 and lower highs printing into the late session. Demand stepped in around 1.1584, holding the recent swing low for now.
Support: 1.15842, 1.15555, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1650, 1.1700
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.1620 reopens the path toward 1.1650/1.1700
Loss of 1.1584 confirms a lower low and exposes 1.1555 support
Wed FOMC (Warsh debut) + US Retail Sales are the week's dominant catalysts and could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
This-week uptrend, pulling back · RSI 43 · price 1.15895
Lower highs off 1.1622, holding above weekly open.
EUR/USD pushed to a 10-day high at 1.1622 mid-week as the US-Iran framework deal sank oil and lifted risk appetite, but the advance has stalled and price is rolling back below 1.1600 into the late session. A series of lower highs has formed since the 1.1622 print and RSI has cooled toward the low 40s, with price now under EMA(20) but holding above the weekly open near 1.1573. Demand around 1.1585 is being tested into the close.
Support: 1.15847, 1.15733, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.16213
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1573 weekly open exposes 1.1555 support
Reclaim of 1.1622 week high needed to resume the advance
Wed FOMC is the dominant near-term catalyst and could reshape this read
Double-top rejection at 1.1620, lower highs since.
EUR/USD opened the week with a push to a 10-day high at 1.1621 as the US-Iran framework deal sank oil and lifted risk appetite, but the advance was capped twice near 1.1620 and has since rolled over below EMA(20). Price has slipped back to 1.1590, holding just above the EMA(50) and the 1.1584 day low. RSI(14) has cycled down toward 43 as the lower-highs build off Friday's peak.
Support: 1.15842, 1.1555, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.1605, 1.16213
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1605 reclaims EMA(20) and the upside structure
Failure to hold 1.1584 opens the path to 1.1555 swing low
Wed FOMC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
21:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back from week high · RSI 42 · price 1.15838
Higher highs into 1.1621 then lower highs, retracing the week's impulse.
EUR pushed to a 10-day high near 1.1621 after the US-Iran deal and slumping oil drained the safe-haven dollar bid, but the advance rolled over through the NY session and price has slid back beneath EMA(20) and EMA(50). The pullback now tests the 1.1600 handle from below, retracing roughly a third of this week's 1.1503-1.1621 impulse. RSI(14) has cycled down to the low 40s as the lower-highs sequence builds.
Support: 1.1567, 1.1555, 1.1503
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16213
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.16000 reopens the 1.16213 week high
H1 close below 1.1567 week open confirms a deeper lower low
FOMC Wed is the dominant catalyst and could reshape this read
20:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back from highs · RSI 46 · price 1.15957
Post-gap rally capped by double top, consolidating sub-1.1600.
EUR/USD gapped above 1.1600 over the weekend on the US-Iran peace framework draining the safe-haven USD bid, then peaked twice near 1.16213 forming a double top. Price has since drifted back below EMA20 to the 1.16 handle with RSI(14) cooling toward mid-40s. The 1.1569-1.1621 range is holding into Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 1.1594, 1.1569
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1608, 1.1621
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1594 session low opens the 1.1569 range low
Reclaim of the 1.1608 EMA20 needed to re-challenge the 1.1621 double top
FOMC decision Wednesday is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
EUR/USD opened the week with a gap higher on the US-Iran risk-on move and pushed above 1.16 to a week high at 1.1620, which capped two attempts during the NY session. Price has since slipped back under the 1.1600 psych level and lost EMA(20), with RSI(14) cooling toward 45. The 1.1594 swing low is the first structural test, with the weekly open at 1.1573 and 1.1555 support beneath.
Support: 1.1594, 1.1573, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1620
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1594 confirms a lower low and opens the path to 1.1573 weekly open
Reclaim of 1.1600 psych and EMA(20) revives the week-high test at 1.1620
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant USD catalyst and could materially shift this read
EURUSD opened the week with a weekend gap higher into Monday's risk-on tape as the US–Iran ceasefire drained USD safe-haven demand, rallying to a 1.16213 week high before stalling. Price has since drifted back under EMA(20) near 1.1608 with RSI(14) easing to neutral, and the 1.15940 session low is now being tested. The week high has rejected two attempts and caps the upside.
Support: 1.1594, 1.15673, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1608, 1.16213
What it said to watch
Wednesday's FOMC decision/USD reaction is the dominant driver — could materially shift this read
Close below 1.15673 prior close confirms a lower low and opens the 1.15550 range low
Reclaim of the 1.16080 ema20 re-engages the 1.16213 week high
EUR/USD opened the week with a gap higher and ran to 1.1621 as the US–Iran peace framework drained the safe-haven USD bid. Price has since stalled twice near 1.1620, forming a near double top, and is now drifting back under the EMA(20) around 1.1606 with RSI(14) easing toward 49. Still well above the EMA(50), keeping the broader weekly uptrend intact while consolidating.
Support: 1.1596, 1.1568, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1606, 1.1621, 1.1700
What it said to watch
Wednesday's FOMC decision is the dominant USD catalyst and could materially shift this read
A close above 1.1621 clears the double top and opens the path toward 1.1700
Failure to hold the 1.1596 session low exposes the 1.1568 swing low
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 51 · price 1.1603
Consolidating below week high after gap-up rally.
EUR/USD gapped higher into the new week as the US–Iran ceasefire lifted risk sentiment and softened the USD, extending the impulse off last week's ~1.1503 low. Price has since stalled in a tight 1.1596–1.1620 band, with RSI(14) cooling back toward the midline and spot hovering at EMA(20). The week high near 1.1620 has capped repeated attempts.
Support: 1.1596, 1.1573, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1700
What it said to watch
Close above 1.1620 opens the path toward the 1.1700 range top
Failure to hold 1.1596, then the 1.1573 weekly open, undermines the post-gap base
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant USD catalyst and can reshape this range
18:00 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near range top · RSI 55 · price 1.1603
Higher lows since Thursday, capped under 1.1620.
EURUSD gapped higher into Friday's open above the 1.16 handle as the US–Iran ceasefire drained the USD safe-haven bid, and price has held above EMA(20) through the session. The advance stalled at 1.1620, the week high, with RSI(14) cooling back toward mid-50s as price consolidates around the 1.16 round number. The 1.1555–1.1700 range remains the defining structure.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1594, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1700
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1620 opens the path toward 1.1700 range top
Failure to hold 1.1600 round number exposes 1.1594 session low then 1.1555 range low
Wednesday's FOMC decision is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
EUR/USD opened the week with a gap higher above 1.16 as the US-Iran ceasefire framework drained the safe-haven USD bid and lifted risk. The run capped at 1.16213 and price has since faded back to the 1.16 handle, slipping under EMA(20) while holding above EMA(50). The pullback is sitting on the 50% retrace of the gap-day impulse with RSI(14) cooling toward neutral.
Support: 1.1594, 1.15676, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.16213
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1594 opens the gap fill at 1.15676
H1 close back above 1.16213 reasserts the week-high push
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant USD catalyst for this read
EUR/USD gapped higher into this week's open and ran to 1.16213 through the NY session as the US–Iran ceasefire drained the safe-haven USD bid and pressured oil. Price has since faded back under the 1.16 handle, slipping below EMA20 with RSI cooling toward 46 after the rejection at the week high. Weekly open at 1.15733 underpins the pullback so far.
Support: 1.15733, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1605, 1.16213
What it said to watch
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant driver and could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.16 handle and EMA20 would re-engage the week high at 1.16213
Loss of 1.15733 weekly open exposes the 1.1555 range low
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 56 · price 1.1605
Higher highs since Friday's low, now consolidating below week high.
EUR/USD gapped higher into this week and rallied above 1.1600 as the US-Iran framework softened the dollar and drained safe-haven demand, peaking at the 1.16213 week high. Price is now consolidating in the upper 1.16s, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling from highs after the latest push stalled. The advance is capped well below the 1.1700 range top, with heavy 1.1600 strikes keeping spot pinned.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15968, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1700
What it said to watch
FOMC Wednesday 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reshape this read
Sustained close below 1.1600 shifts the read back toward 1.1555 range low
Close above 1.16213 week high opens the path toward 1.1700
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 61 · price 1.1605
Gap-up rally, consolidating below week high.
EUR/USD gapped through 1.1600 at the weekly reopen on the US-Iran framework and a softer dollar, rallying to 1.1621 before stalling. Price has held above EMA(20) since the gap with higher lows building, but the advance is underwhelming and capped at the week high. Consolidation is now pinned around the 1.1600 round number ahead of Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1568, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1621, 1.1700
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1621 opens the path toward the 1.1700 range top
Loss of the 1.1568 gap low would expose the 1.1555 range base
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
Higher-lows off the weekly low, capped below the week high.
EUR/USD gapped up through 1.1600 at this week's open as the US-Iran framework softened the dollar, and price has held above the figure since, consolidating in a tight 1.1597–1.1621 band. RSI(14) sits in the low-60s with price above both EMAs and pullbacks finding the EMA20. The 1.16213 week high has capped the advance while 1.1555 marks the broader range base.
Support: 1.1597, 1.15676, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1700
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.16213 opens the path toward the 1.1700 range top
Loss of 1.1597 exposes the gap and 1.15676 week open
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
EUR/USD gapped above 1.16 at this week's open as the US-Iran framework drained the dollar's safe-haven premium and lower oil added a tailwind. Price has consolidated 1.1597–1.1621 since, with RSI(14) cooling from the breakout while holding above EMA(20). The week high at 1.1621 has capped the latest push; the 1.1700 range top remains the broader ceiling.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1597, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1621, 1.1700
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst — a USD-driven event that could shift this read
H1 close above 1.1621 opens the path toward the 1.1700 range top
Loss of the 1.1600 round number exposes range low at 1.1555
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 64 · price 1.1614
Higher highs and higher lows since the weekly gap.
EUR/USD gapped higher into this week's open and has ground up steadily, riding the risk-on US-Iran peace deal and a string of soft US prints (Empire State and Industrial Production both missed). Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the low-60s and pullbacks have been shallow. The 1.1621 week high has capped the latest push, with 1.1650 the next area ING flags as the cap.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1573, 1.1567
Resistance: 1.1621, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1600 round number would break the run of higher lows
Clean break above 1.1650 needs a USD catalyst per ING
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant near-term driver for EUR/USD
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 61 · price 1.1614
Higher lows since Monday gap, consolidating below week high.
EURUSD gapped higher into Monday's session and surged above 1.1600 as the US-Iran peace framework sparked risk-on and drained the USD safe-haven bid. Price has since coiled between 1.1597 and the 1.1621 week high, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the upper half. Two attempts at 1.1621 have stalled, with ING's 1.1650 zone the next overhead cap.
Support: 1.1597, 1.1573
Resistance: 1.1621, 1.1650
What it said to watch
Wednesday FOMC is the dominant swing risk for this pair
Clean break above 1.1621 opens the path toward the 1.1650 cap, but needs a USD catalyst
Failure to hold 1.1597 exposes the 1.1573 weekly open
Higher high then tight consolidation under session high.
EUR/USD gapped higher at this week's open and ran to 1.16213 before settling into a tight 1.160–1.162 consolidation, holding above EMA20 throughout. The leg up tracks broad USD softness on the US-Iran de-escalation rather than fresh EUR data. RSI(14) sits in the low 60s as the advance loses pace near the session high.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1594, 1.1573
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1650
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.16213 opens the path toward the 1.1650 cap
Failure to hold 1.16000 exposes the 1.15940 session low and 1.15730 week open
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant USD catalyst and could reset this read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 57 · price 1.16102
Gap higher then range above 1.1600.
EUR/USD gapped higher into Monday's open after the US-Iran de-escalation pressured the dollar, leaving a weekend gap from Friday's 1.1567 close. Price has held above the 1.1600 round number and EMA20 since, ranging roughly 1.1594-1.1621 with RSI(14) cycling mid-range. The week high at 1.1621 has capped the latest push.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1594, 1.15673
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1650
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1621 opens the path toward the 1.1650 ING cap
Loss of 1.1594 session low would break the post-gap range floor
FOMC Wed is the dominant USD-side catalyst that could reshape this read
EUR/USD gapped up to open this week and has held above 1.1600 since, lifted off the 1.1500 area as the US-Iran framework drained haven demand and pressured the dollar. Price is consolidating just under the 1.1621 week high with RSI(14) holding the 55-62 band and pullbacks tracking EMA(20). The 1.1597 swing low has contained dips so far, leaving the move boxed below the 1.1650 cap into Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 1.1597, 1.1573, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1621, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1621 opens the path to the 1.1650 cap
Loss of 1.1597 swing low exposes the 1.1573 weekly open
FOMC Wed (Warsh debut) is the dominant catalyst and can reset this range
12:00 UTC
Uptrend off the weekend gap, momentum cooling · RSI 63 · price 1.16116
Higher highs since gap, consolidating under week high.
EUR/USD gapped higher into this week's open and rallied off 1.1500, with the US-Iran peace framework draining the safe-haven dollar bid. Price has held above the 1.1600 round number and EMA(20) since the gap, RSI(14) cycling in the low-60s as the advance flattens just under the 1.16213 week high. The 1.1650 area flagged by ING caps above; FOMC Wednesday is the dominant driver from here.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15733, 1.15573
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed could materially shift this read — dot plot in focus
Hourly close above 1.16213 opens the path to the 1.1650 cap
Failure to hold the 1.1600 round number exposes the 1.15733 weekly open
EURUSD gapped up to 1.1605 at this week's open and pushed to a 1.16213 week high through the NY session, lifted by US-Iran risk-on draining the safe-haven USD bid. Price has since stalled and is consolidating just above the 1.1600 round number, holding the prior 1.1580-1.1600 range floor that it cleared. RSI(14) has cooled from the rally peak toward 60 as the move catches its breath.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1594, 1.1573
Resistance: 1.16213
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed (Warsh debut) is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
Close back below 1.1600 and the 1.1594 session low would negate the breakout and reopen the 1.1573 week open
A close above the 1.16213 week high extends the advance
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating below week high.
EUR/USD rallied hard from Monday's open on US-Iran risk-on and a softer USD, clearing the 1.1580-1.1600 range floor that capped bounces last week. Price tagged a 1.16213 week high before stalling, now consolidating just above the 1.16000 level with RSI cycling in the mid-50s and price holding above EMA20 and EMA50. The old range floor is now flipping to support on pullbacks.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1573, 1.1549
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1613
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 1.16000 reopens the path to the weekly open at 1.15730
A push through 1.16213 week high extends the breakout
FOMC (Warsh debut) Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Uptrend off the weekly open · RSI 56 · price 1.16004
Breakout above old range floor, consolidating under week high.
EUR/USD gapped higher into this week's open near 1.1573 and rallied through the 1.1580-1.1600 range floor on the US-Iran peace-deal USD selloff, printing a week high at 1.1620 before easing back to the round number. Price holds above EMA(20) around 1.1597 with RSI(14) cycling mid-range, and the old range floor now sits below as support. FOMC Wednesday under Warsh is the dominant near-term catalyst.
Support: 1.1597, 1.1580, 1.1573
Resistance: 1.16213
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1600 round number reopens the 1.1580 range floor
Failure to clear 1.1620 week high keeps the bounce capped
FOMC Wednesday (Warsh debut) could materially shift this read
EUR/USD gapped higher into Monday's open and pushed to a 1.16213 week high on the US-Iran risk-on and broad USD softness, then settled into a tight consolidation. Price is holding above the 1.1600 psych level and well above EMA20, with RSI cooling from the spike but still north of 55. The 1.1617-1.1621 prior-high zone has capped the move twice — area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1594, 1.1573
Resistance: 1.16173, 1.16213
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.16213 week high opens continuation higher
Failure to hold the 1.15940 swing low reopens the weekly open at 1.15730
FOMC (Warsh debut) Wed and German CPI Tue can materially shift this read
EUR/USD gapped higher into this week's Asia open and ran through the 1.1600 handle, peaking at 1.16213 before easing back to 1.1606. The leg was driven by broad USD softness on the US-Iran deal headlines draining haven demand, with RSp(14) holding the upper half. Pullbacks have so far found the rising EMA(20), but 1.1620 has capped the latest push.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15977, 1.1585
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.16165
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.16213 reopens the upside; rejection there keeps the high capped
Loss of the 1.1597 swing low / 1.1585 range floor negates the rising structure
FOMC (Warsh debut) Wed could materially shift this read
Higher highs after range break, pulling back from week high.
EUR/USD gapped higher into Monday's open and rallied through the 1.1580-1.1590 prior range floor as the USD softened on the US-Iran de-escalation, tagging a week high at 1.16213 before easing to 1.1606. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the low 60s, but the last few bars have stalled just under the 1.1620 ceiling. The 1.1600 round number is the immediate pivot now that the old floor has flipped beneath price.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1594, 1.1590
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.16165
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed Jun 17 (Warsh debut) is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
Loss of 1.1590 prior floor would negate the range break
Sustained close above 1.16213 week high opens room higher
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, breakout from range · RSI 63 · price 1.16044
Higher highs after range break above 1.1590.
EUR/USD gapped higher into this week's open and broke above the 1.1580-1.1590 range floor that capped it last week, now probing the 1.16213 week high. The move follows last week's hawkish ECB hike and a softer US core PPI print; RSI(14) sits in the low-60s with price holding above both EMAs. The 1.1590 former-ceiling-turned-floor and the 1.1600 pivot are the immediate reference points.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1590, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.16213
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1590 negates the breakout and returns price into last week's range
FOMC Wed (Warsh debut) and Retail Sales could materially shift this read
Lagarde speech (07:30 UTC) is a near-term risk to the EUR leg
Higher highs/lows, breakout above prior range floor.
EUR/USD gapped higher into Monday's open and rallied through the 1.1580-1.1590 range floor that capped it last week, tagging a 1.16213 high before easing back toward the 1.1600 pivot. RSI sits near 60 with price holding above EMA20 and EMA50, the leg following last week's hawkish ECB hike and a soft US core PPI print. Pullbacks have so far found support at successively higher lows since the gap.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15733, 1.1558
Resistance: 1.16213
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed (Warsh debut) could materially shift this read
A close back below 1.1600 / 1.1590 undoes the breakout
Holding above 1.16213 opens the path higher
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 68 · price 1.16171
Range break to new week highs.
EUR/USD gapped higher into this week's open and pushed through the 1.1590 range floor that capped all of last week, now printing fresh highs at 1.16213 during the London session with price holding above both EMAs. RSI(14) is elevated near 68 after the impulse off the 1.1500-area lows. The 1.16049 breakout shelf is the first reference back below the highs.
Support: 1.16049, 1.1590, 1.1573
Resistance: 1.16213
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech 07:30 UTC could shift the EUR read
H1 close back below 1.1590 puts price back inside last week's range
FOMC Wed is the dominant catalyst this week
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum strong · RSI 69 · price 1.16171
Breakout above prior range floor.
EURUSD gapped higher at this week's open and ran through 1.1600, clearing the 1.1580-1.1590 range floor that capped late-May price action — a clean breakout sourced from cooler US core PPI and a firm ECB read. RSI(14) is elevated near 69 with price extended above EMA20 and EMA50. The week high at 1.16213 is the immediate cap, with the reclaimed 1.1590 floor now acting as support.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1590, 1.1573
Resistance: 1.16213
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1590 negates the breakout and returns price to the prior range
Failure to clear 1.16213 keeps the advance capped
FOMC Wed (Warsh debut) is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
Weekend gap higher, reclaim above old range floor.
EURUSD gapped higher into Monday's session and ran to 1.16173, finally reclaiming the 1.1580-1.1590 old range floor and the 1.1600 round number that capped the pair all of last week, supported by the hawkish ECB hike. Price now sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) elevated near 70, and the last few bars have stalled in a tight consolidation just under the week high. The prior Friday close at 1.15676 marks the base of this week's impulse.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1590, 1.15676
Resistance: 1.16173
What it said to watch
Lagarde 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained close above 1.16173 week high opens path higher
Failure to hold the 1.1600 round number reopens the 1.1590 old floor
FOMC Wed (Warsh debut) is the dominant risk into this week
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 67 · price 1.16137
Reclaimed old range floor, holding above.
EUR/USD gapped higher into this week's open and pushed through the 1.1580-1.1590 old range floor, which is now acting as support, with RSI(14) elevated near 67. The leg follows last week's hawkish ECB hike to 2.25%; price has since held a tight 1.1598-1.1617 band through the Asia session and is pressing the 1.16173 session high. Round-number 1.1600 has been retested and held on the way up.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1590, 1.1577
Resistance: 1.16173, 1.1620
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back below 1.1590 range floor negates the reclaim
Break of 1.16173 session high opens the path toward 1.1620
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, gap-driven push · RSI 64 · price 1.16045
Reclaimed range floor, higher highs.
A weekend gap up out of the 1.1550-1.1575 range reclaimed the 1.1580-1.1590 floor that capped every attempt this week, and price is now holding above the 1.1600 psych level after tagging 1.16173. Earlier in the week the pair leaked to 1.1500 before recovering, so this is a clear shift off those lows; RSI(14) sits in the low-60s with price above both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1590, 1.15673
Resistance: 1.16173
What it said to watch
Lagarde 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hold above 1.1590 range floor keeps the reclaim intact; loss reopens 1.1567
Wed FOMC (Warsh debut) is the dominant risk into the week
EURUSD gapped higher into this week's open and pushed through the 1.1580-1.1590 old range floor, which has since flipped to support, with the week high printed at 1.16173. The move follows last week's hawkish ECB hike and softer US core data, and price is now holding above the 1.1600 psych level after an early pullback to 1.1594. RSI(14) sits in the mid-60s, confirming momentum without yet stretching to extremes.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1590, 1.15673
Resistance: 1.16173
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.15900 negates the breakout and re-opens the prior range
Failure to hold 1.16000 psych puts the 1.1590 floor back in play
Lagarde 07:30 UTC and FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
EURUSD gapped higher into the new week, opening above the 1.1580–1.1590 cap that contained price through last week, and pushed to a 1.16173 high before settling around the 1.1600 round number. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) elevated near 64 as the post-gap drive flattens into a tight consolidation. The break above the prior cap reflects the broadly firmer EUR tone, but the 1.1580–1.1590 zone now sits as the line to defend.
Support: 1.1594, 1.1590, 1.1573
Resistance: 1.16173, 1.16113
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1590 puts the gap fill and 1.1573 weekly open back in play
H1 close above 1.16173 extends the breakout toward the upper range
FOMC Wed (Warsh dot plot) is the swing factor and can override this read
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 64 · price 1.15999
Weekly range broken to the upside.
EURUSD gapped higher into Monday's open and ran to 1.16173, finally clearing the 1.1580-1.1590 cap that held all of last week. Price is holding above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the low-60s, the first sustained push above the late-May range floor. The move stalled just under 1.1620 and is consolidating around the 1.1600 round number.
Support: 1.1590, 1.1573, 1.1557
Resistance: 1.16173, 1.1620
What it said to watch
Hold above 1.1590 keeps the range-break intact; a close back below reverts to the prior weekly range
FOMC Wed (Warsh dot plot) could materially shift this read
EURUSD gapped higher into this week's open, clearing the 1.1580-1.1590 cap that capped every attempt last week and tagging a fresh week high at 1.16173. Price has since eased back toward 1.1597, holding above the prior cap which now sits as support. The move tracks broad USD softness; FOMC Wednesday is the swing factor flagged across the digest.
Support: 1.1590, 1.1573, 1.15673
Resistance: 1.16173, 1.16113
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.15730 fills the weekend gap and negates the breakout
Sustained move above 1.16173 extends the breakout toward range top
FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Range break attempt, topside · RSI 62 · price 1.15974
1.15-1.16 range, gap above cap.
EURUSD ranged 1.15-1.16 all week, capped repeatedly at the 1.1580-1.1590 floor of the late-May range. This week's session opened with a gap above that cap, tagging 1.16173 before easing back toward 1.1597; the soft US core PPI print kept the dollar offered into the move. Price now holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI mid-60s, but the 1.1590 cap is being retested from above.
Support: 1.1590, 1.1567, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.16173, 1.16085
What it said to watch
Sustained hold above 1.1590 confirms the topside break of the week's cap
A close back below 1.1590 reinstates the 1.15-1.16 range read
FOMC Wed (Warsh debut, dot plot) is the swing factor for this range
EUR/USD gapped higher into Monday's Asia open, clearing the 1.1590 cap that had repelled repeated attempts last week and tagging a fresh week high at 1.16173 before easing to 1.15963. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) elevated near 63 after the breakout; the dominant impulse runs from Thursday's 1.1503 low. The 1.1590 zone, prior resistance, now sits as first support on the pullback.
Support: 1.1590, 1.1566, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.16173, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1590 reopens the prior multi-week range
Acceptance above 1.16173 week high needed to extend the breakout
FOMC Wed (Warsh debut) is the dominant catalyst and could override this read
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 65 · price 1.15963
Range break to the upside after weekend gap.
EURUSD opened the week with a gap higher, clearing the 1.1580-1.1590 cap that turned back two attempts last week and printing a fresh high at 1.16173. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) into the low-60s, but the last few bars have stalled and eased back toward 1.1596 after the initial thrust. The reclaimed 1.1590 cap is now the immediate reference for whether the breakout holds.
Support: 1.1590, 1.1573, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.16085, 1.16173
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.15900 would put the breakout into false-break territory
Sustained acceptance above 1.16173 opens room beyond the week's range
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC (Warsh debut) is the dominant catalyst and can override this read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, break from range · RSI 68 · price 1.16044
Range break above 1.1590 floor, fresh week high.
EURUSD gapped higher into the new week's open and pushed through the 1.1580-1.1590 floor that capped late-May and last week's range, tagging a fresh high at 1.16173 before easing to 1.1604. Price sits above EM(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) in the upper 60s after the impulse off the 1.1500 area. The hawkish ECB hike underpins the move but the FOMC is the dominant near-term catalyst.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1590, 1.1573
Resistance: 1.16085, 1.16173
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed Jun 17 (Warsh debut, dots seen hawkish) is the dominant catalyst for this read
Failure to hold the 1.1590 range floor reopens the prior range toward 1.1573
H1 close above 1.16173 extends the breakout
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 69 · price 1.16044
Range break to new session highs.
EUR/USD gapped higher into the new session and rallied straight through the 1.1580-1.1590 band that capped every attempt this week, printing a session high at 1.16173 before easing back to hold the 1.1600 round number. The move follows a softer dollar on US-Iran de-escalation, with the prior 1.15026 low marking the base of the impulse. RSI is elevated near 68 as price sits well above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1589, 1.15673
Resistance: 1.16173
What it said to watch
Hold above 1.1590 keeps the range break intact; a close back below it negates the breakout
Acceptance over 1.1600 round number is the pivot for continuation toward 1.16173
FOMC Wed Jun 17 is the dominant catalyst and could materially reset this read
00:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 68 · price 1.16088
Higher highs, range floor reclaimed.
EUR/USD gapped into the new week and pushed through the 1.1580-1.1590 range floor that had capped it since Monday, printing a session high at 1.1617 as the softer US data run and US-Iran de-escalation kept the dollar near one-week lows. Price now holds above the 1.1600 round number with RSI elevated near 67 after a clean impulse off the 1.1507 week low. EMA20 and EMA50 sit below, both reclaimed on the breakout.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1590, 1.1507
Resistance: 1.16173
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.1590 range floor would negate the breakout
FOMC Wed Jun 17 is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.1600 puts the 1.1590 floor back in focus
00:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 71 · price 1.16088
Range break, higher highs into Monday open.
EURUSD spent most of the week pinned in a 1.1500–1.1590 range before clearing the 1.1590 prior cap on Monday's session open, printing a session high at 1.16173 as the dollar softened on Iran de-escalation. Price now trades above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) stretched near 71, the first clean break of the range top this week. The 1.1590 floor has flipped to support after capping multiple attempts earlier.
Support: 1.1590, 1.15673, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.16173, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed Jun 17 is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close back below 1.1590 prior cap negates the breakout
Acceptance above 1.16173 session high opens the path toward 1.1650