EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Wednesday, 17 June 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:01 UTC
Range broken, turning lower · RSI 37 · price 1.14955
Two-week range broke below 1.1500 floor.
EUR/USD chopped sideways in a 1.1500-1.1690 range for roughly two weeks before the final bar sliced through the 1.1500 floor to 1.14775 on a hawkish FOMC — the dot plot was lifted and 2026 cuts dropped, repricing the dollar higher. ATR(14) was already creeping up and the breakdown bar expanded range sharply, confirming volatility is back. Price now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 for the first time since the range formed.
Support: 1.14775, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1600, 1.1620
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1500 invalidates the range-break read
Failure to reclaim 1.1500 confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.1450
US jobless claims and Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend or fade the FOMC dollar move
21:01 UTC
Range broken lower, momentum turning down · RSI 37 · price 1.14955
Two-week range floor (1.1500) given way on FOMC.
EUR/USD spent two weeks coiled between 1.1500 and the 200-DMA cap at 1.1675/90, then the floor gave way on the final bar as a hawkish Warsh FOMC and hot US retail sales bid the dollar — a wide bearish candle drove price from 1.159 to a 1.14775 low. Price has slipped below both EMA20 and EMA50, flipping the prior range floor at 1.1500 into resistance. ATR(14) expanded on the break, consistent with a trend leg rather than another range swing.
Support: 1.14775, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1600, 1.1675
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1500 would negate the range break and restore the consolidation read
Failure to reclaim 1.1500 confirms 1.1500 as new resistance and opens room toward 1.1450
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend or fade the post-FOMC dollar bid
Higher lows off the crash low, capped under 1.1620.
EURUSD plunged to 1.1499 on the early-month flush, then carved out a base and ground back to the 1.1620 area before stalling. Higher lows since the low keep the recovery intact, but each push into 1.1620 has been capped, with the 200-dma at 1.1675/90 the broader gate above. ATR(14) sits near 21 pips after compressing through the consolidation, and price is pinned around 1.1592 into Warsh's first FOMC tonight — a USD-driven event.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1518, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1648, 1.1675
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1620 opens the path to the 200-dma at 1.1675
FOMC decision tonight is a USD-driven event that could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.1575 threatens the higher-low structure
Higher lows since the 1.1500 base, capped at 1.1620.
EUR/USD has clawed back the early-month flush to 1.1500, building a double-bottom base and a sequence of higher lows back toward 1.1620, where supply has capped twice. Price is now consolidating mid-range around the EMA20 after the rejection at 1.1620, with ATR settling into a tighter regime. The market is boxed below the 200-DMA at 1.1675/90 noted as the gate for any broader uptrend.
Support: 1.15745, 1.1530, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh press conference within hours could materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.1620 reopens the 1.1675 200-dma resistance
Failure to hold 1.15745 swing low threatens the higher-low structure toward 1.1530
13:01 UTC
Recovery uptrend, capped at 200-day ema · RSI 53 · price 1.15921
Higher lows off crash low, stalling below 1.1620.
EURUSD has clawed back the early-month crash to 1.1503, building a higher-low structure that retested 1.1600, helped by the upside ZEW surprise and the first ECB hike since 2023. The recovery is capping right at the 200-day EMA near 1.1620, with the latest push rejected back to 1.1592. ATR remains elevated after the crash, so the 1.1555-1.1620 band is the active battleground into the Fed.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1555, 1.1502
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1620 (200-day ema) opens 1.1650
Loss of 1.1555 pivot exposes sub-1.1500
FOMC decision and Warsh presser today could materially shift this read
EURUSD sold off sharply early month and based near the 1.1500 round number before grinding back up on a firmer ECB story and upbeat ZEW prints. Price is now consolidating in a 1.1555-1.1620 range, with the 200-day EMA capping just above 1.1620 and a series of higher lows holding off the 1.1500 base. The latest test of 1.1620 was rejected, leaving price mid-range ahead of the FOMC decision.
Support: 1.1555, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser today can materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.1620 (200d ema) opens the path to 1.1650
Loss of the 1.1555 pivot exposes sub-1.1500
09:01 UTC
Recovery off lows, momentum slowing near cap · RSI 56 · price 1.16058
Higher lows since 1.1500, stalling under 1.1620.
Price has carved a rounded bottom off the 1.1500 spike low, grinding back through a series of higher lows to stall at the 1.1620 200-DMA cap. The last several bars are tightly compressed near 1.1610 and ATR(14) has collapsed toward 20 pips, a sign of pre-event coiling into the Fed. EUR longs remain capped at the cap that has rejected rallies all week.
Support: 1.1555, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1620 (200-dma) opens path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Failure to hold the 1.1555 pivot exposes the 1.1500 swing low
FOMC decision today could materially shift this compressed read
09:01 UTC
Recovery off the lows, capped at 200-DMA · RSI 58 · price 1.16058
Higher lows since the 1.1500 base, stalling under 1.1620.
Price has clawed back from the early-month 1.1500 base and reclaimed 1.1600, but the advance is stalling into the 200-DMA cap around 1.1620 — the same area that capped rallies all month. ATR(14) is compressing into the FOMC decision, with the pair pinned in the 1.1555-1.1620 band. The recovery keeps higher lows intact, yet repeated rejection at the cap leaves the range unresolved.
Support: 1.1555, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1620 opens the path toward the 1.1650 ceiling
Failure to hold 1.1555 pivot exposes the 1.1500 swing low
FOMC decision and dots today can materially reset this range
05:01 UTC
Recovering off lows, capped · RSI 60 · price 1.16106
Range below 1.1620 after early-month flush.
Price has clawed back the sharp early-month flush to the 1.1500 swing low, twin lows near 1.1500/1.1518 marking a double-bottom base, and is now grinding back into the 1.1620 200d ema cap. The pair remains boxed between the 1.1550 pivot floor and that overhead cap, with ATR(14) compressed near 21 pips. Demand stepped in repeatedly around 1.1550 while supply has consistently capped near 1.1620.
Support: 1.1550, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1620 opens the path toward 1.1650
Failure to hold 1.1550 reopens the 1.1500 swing low
FOMC (Warsh's first) Wednesday is the dominant catalyst and could reshape this read
05:01 UTC
Recovering off lows, capped near 1.1620 · RSI 56 · price 1.16106
Range, 1.1550-1.1620.
Price has rounded up off the 1.1500 range low after the early-month flush, retracing most of that impulse drop, but stalls repeatedly into the 1.1620 200-day EMA cap. Structure is a 1.1550-1.1620 grind with the 1.1550 pivot floor holding on the downside; EMA20 and EMA50 are now both below price after the recovery. The whole read is pinned by Warsh's first FOMC on Wednesday.
Support: 1.1550, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1620 opens the path to the 1.1650 resistance
Loss of 1.1550 reopens the 1.1500 range low
FOMC (18:00 UTC Wed) is the dominant catalyst and can break this range either way
01:01 UTC
Recovery off the 1.1500 low, momentum building · RSI 60 · price 1.1609
Higher lows since the low, pressing the 1.1620 cap.
A sharp mid-window sell-off dumped EURUSD to 1.1500 before a rounded base formed and price recovered steadily, carving higher lows back into the 1.16 handle. The pair has reclaimed both EMAs and is now pressing the 1.1620 cap flagged as resistance, with the move framed by range-bound trade into Wednesday's Fed hold. ATR is moderate after compressing off the drop's volatility spike.
Support: 1.1555, 1.1522, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1620 opens the path to 1.1650
Loss of 1.1555 pivot reopens downside toward 1.1500
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Recovery off the lows, momentum building · RSI 61 · price 1.1609
Higher lows since the 1.1500 base.
Price has clawed back the early-month flush to 1.1499, building a double bottom near 1.1500 and a sequence of higher lows back to the 1.1620 cap flagged repeatedly in the window. EUR drew a fleeting lift from the ZEW beat but stays pinned in the 1.1555-1.1650 band into the Fed hold. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50 as price reclaimed both, though the 1.1620 supply still defines the ceiling.
Support: 1.1555, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1620 opens the path to 1.1650
Loss of 1.1555 pivot reopens the 1.1500 double-bottom lows
FOMC decision Wednesday 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read