EUR/USD has rolled into fresh two-month lows, breaking the 1.1478 area and the 1.14/1.15 range floor as the dollar firmed on the hawkish Fed hold and the dot-plot shift. Structure is a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows with ATR(14) expanding, signalling the down-move is extending rather than compressing. Price sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI deep toward oversold.
Support: 1.1450, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1518
What it said to watch
Sustained close back above 1.1500 psych would question the breakout
Failure to hold the 1.14 range floor opens the lower half of the handle
German PPI Fri 06:00 GMT and ECB speakers (Lane/Cipollone) could shift this read
EUR/USD sliced through the 1.1478 two-month floor as USD recoupled with rates after the hawkish Fed hold, extending the leg down to fresh lows near 1.1451. ATR(14) is expanding and price sits well below both EMAs, confirming a downtrend in force. The prior multi-week range base at 1.1478 now acts as overhead resistance.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1450, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1478
What it said to watch
A reclaim above 1.1478 would invalidate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.1450 confirms continuation toward the 1.14 handle
German PPI Fri 06:00 GMT and ECB speakers could shift this read
EURUSD was routed through the 1.1550 prior support after the hawkish FOMC repricing, accelerating into a fresh leg lower and breaking the March-low area near 1.1475. Price now prints lower highs and lower lows with the latest bar bottoming at 1.1453; ATR(14) has expanded on the impulse, and price trades well below both EMAs. RSI sits near oversold but has not diverged.
Support: 1.1453, 1.1450, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1500 pivot would stall the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold 1.1450 opens the 1.1400 range floor
German PPI and ECB speakers (Lane, Cipollone) Fri could shift this read
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 33 · price 1.14701
Lower highs, fresh lows below March floor.
Price rolled over hard from the 1.1620 area and sliced through the 1.1475 March low on the hawkish Warsh FOMC repricing, printing a fresh low at 1.14628 and closing at 1.14701. Structure is a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows with price stretched well below EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) has expanded as the move extends. The broken 1.1475 March low now sits overhead as the first resistance, with 1.1500 the pivot ING flags as the range floor.
Support: 1.14628, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1475, 1.1500, 1.1525
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1500 pivot would neutralise the downside break
Failure to reclaim 1.14750 keeps the lower-low structure intact
German PPI and ECB speakers Fri could materially shift this read
EURUSD has rolled over hard, breaking the late-March 1.1475-1.1480 support that capped the prior multi-week range after the hawkish Fed reset rate differentials in the dollar's favour. Price is printing fresh lows at 1.1454 with RSI in oversold territory and ATR(14) expanding off the latest impulse leg down. The corrective bounce to 1.1620 has fully unwound, leaving structure firmly lower below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1454, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1475 would ease the downside break
Failure to hold 1.1454 opens the path toward 1.1400
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and ECB speakers could shift this read
Downtrend extended sharply after the hawkish Fed reset, with price slicing through the 1.1475 late-March low/channel support and now pressing the 1.1450 round number. ATR(14) has expanded as the move accelerates, and RSI sits in oversold territory after the impulsive drop from the 1.1620 zone. The 1.1475 broken low now acts as the first reference cap on any rebound, with 1.1525 the pre-FOMC reference above.
Support: 1.1450, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1475, 1.1525, 1.1550
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close below 1.1450 opens the path toward 1.1400 psych
Reclaim of 1.1475 march low would ease the breakdown read
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and ECB speakers could shift this read
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 27 · price 1.14541
Lower highs, fresh lows.
EURUSD is in a clear downtrend that accelerated after the hawkish Fed hold, breaking the early-Feb shelf and the late-March 1.1475 level to print fresh lows at 1.1454. ATR(14) has expanded sharply on the 118-pip flush, pointing to trend extension rather than compression. RSI sits in oversold territory below 30.
Support: 1.1450, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1500 round number would ease the downside acceleration
Failure to hold the 1.1450 round number opens the 1.12 path flagged in the digest
EURUSD is in a clean H4 downtrend, carving lower highs since the 1.1686 peak and breaking below the late-March 1.1480 support after the hawkish Fed hold lifted the dollar. Price closed at a fresh low of 1.14541 with ATR(14) expanding on the latest impulse leg, and both EMAs sit overhead. The break below 1.1480 turns that level into the nearest overhead reference.
Support: 1.14538, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.1550
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close below 1.1450 confirms the lower low and opens the path toward the 1.12 zone
Reclaim and close back above 1.1480 would negate the breakout
Downtrend intact on H4 since the early-month 1.1686 high, with the hawkish Fed flip routing EUR through the 1.1550 breakdown level. The corrective bounce to 1.1620 was rejected before a sharp selloff swept the late-March swing low (1.14775), now hovering just above the 1.1500 psych level. ATR is skewed by that single impulse bar — the broader read is lower highs feeding into a fresh leg down.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1478
Resistance: 1.1550, 1.1620
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1550 challenges the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.1500 confirms continuation toward the 1.1478 swing low
US jobless claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift USD and this read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 42 · price 1.15113
Lower highs, fresh lower low at 1.1477.
Lower-high structure dominates the window, and the hawkish-Warsh Fed repricing sliced EUR/USD through 1.1550 and printed a fresh lower low at 1.1477. Price swept below the 1.1500 round level and has reclaimed it, but the recovery sits well under EMA20/EMA50, keeping the bounce corrective. ATR is elevated after the breakdown bar, so volatility is expanding rather than compressing.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1550
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1550 negates the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.1500 round number reopens the 1.1477 swing low
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could shift USD direction this session
Price spent three weeks boxed between the 1.1500 April low and the 1.1600 pivot before the latest session spiked down to 1.14775 and reclaimed the figure, closing back at 1.15247 — a sweep of the range floor rather than a clean break so far. The leg lower came as a hawkish Warsh-led Fed and a hot US retail sales print firmed the dollar. ATR(14) expanded sharply on the drop while price sits below both the EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16213
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.1500 confirms the April-low break and opens the path toward 1.12
Reclaim and hold of the 1.1600 pivot negates the downside attempt
ECB speakers (Lane 12:15 UTC) and US jobless claims could shift this read
05:01 UTC
Rolling over, range break lower · RSI 36 · price 1.15247
Broke 1.1550 base, testing april low.
EUR/USD broke down from the multi-week 1.1530-1.1620 consolidation after the hawkish Warsh-led Fed and a strong US retail sales beat firmed the dollar; the last bar drove a sharp impulse to 1.14775 before a bounce closed at 1.15247, sitting right on the 1.1500 April low. ATR(14) is expanding as the move accelerates, with price now below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16213
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1500 april low confirms the lower-low and opens the path toward 1.12
Reclaim of 1.1600 pivot would negate the breakdown
ECB-speaker slate (Nagel, Lane) and US jobless claims could shift this read
01:01 UTC
Range breaking lower · RSI 38 · price 1.15105
Range floor at 1.1500 swept, recovery in progress.
Price held a 1.1500–1.1690 range for the better part of three weeks before the latest bar drove sharply through the 1.1500 floor to 1.14775, then snapped back to close just above it — a sweep of the range low into firm post-FOMC USD strength. ATR(14) has expanded on that move and price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the rejected highs near 1.1620 capping the prior recovery. The 1.1500 reclaim keeps the break in question for now.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1621
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.1500 confirms the range break toward 1.14775
Reclaim and hold above 1.1620 negates the downside break
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD read
Price held a multi-week 1.1500–1.1690 range until the latest bar sliced through the 1.1500 April low on a sharp bearish candle, with USD firm post-FOMC after Warsh's hawkish hold and beat on retail sales. The brief tag of 1.14775 was partially recovered into 1.15105, but the close sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, flipping the structure lower. Loss of the range floor shifts attention to the 1.1450 area while the 1.1600 prior-support band now caps.
Support: 1.14775, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1620
What it said to watch
Daily acceptance below 1.1500 confirms the range break and opens 1.1450
Reclaim of 1.1600 prior range neutralises the breakdown read
US jobless claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend or fade the USD-driven leg