The multi-quarter uptrend off the 1.0177 Q1-2025 low ran to a 1.2083 peak in Q1-2026 and has since stalled into a range, currently coiling around 1.1600 in the upper half. Price sits just under the W1 EMA(50), with the rally's momentum flattened after the hawkish Fed repricing rebuilt the dollar bid. The March 1.1475-1.1480 low marks the range floor while the 1.1810 swing and 1.2083 peak cap the upside.
Consolidation in upper range after multi-quarter rally.
Multi-quarter uptrend off the Jan 2025 low at 1.0177 carried to a Jan 2026 high at 1.2083, after which price rolled into consolidation in the 1.1475-1.1849 zone. EMA(50) on W1 is rising and price holds just above it — the macro uptrend structure stays intact while momentum has flattened. The hawkish Fed repricing has capped recovery bounces, leaving the 1.2083 high as the regime ceiling.
Support: 1.1475, 1.1414
Resistance: 1.1849, 1.2083
What it said to watch
Weekly close below 1.1475 breaks channel support and opens fresh downside
Reclaim of 1.1849 needed to re-engage toward the 1.2083 high
US PMIs (Jun 23) and Core PCE (Jun 25) could materially shift the USD-driven read