21:01 UTC
Downtrend, second leg extending · RSI 31 · price 1.14638
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1711 cycle high; rounded top rolling over.
The rally off the June low at 1.1325 topped out in a rounded top around the 1.1711 cycle high and has since unwound in a clean chain of lower highs and lower lows, with the last eight sessions breaking the 1.1520 prior shelf and closing below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). Price at 1.1464 sits just under the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1325–1.1711 advance, with the recent swing low at 1.1455 defining the near-term floor and RSI(14) down near 31 — genuine oversold territory on this timeframe. The digest frames the move as dollar strength with DXY above 100 plus German and French political-fiscal risk, with a fully priced December ECB hike buying the euro little.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1400, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1520, 1.1711
What it said to watch
- Daily close below 1.1455 confirms a lower-low and opens the path toward the 1.1400 round number
- Sustained acceptance back above the 1.1520 prior shelf would break the lower-high sequence and neutralise the downtrend read
- 1.1325 june low is the next structural reference if 1.1400 gives way
- Eurozone and US flash PMIs on Sep 23 are the week's highest-impact prints and could materially reset this structure
- RSI near 31 with price extended below EMA(50) leaves room for a mean-reversion bounce without changing the lower-high structure