Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, two-week leg lower after topping · RSI 38 · price 1.14844
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1711 quarter high; basing just under 1.1500.
The advance from the 1.1324 quarter low peaked at the 1.1711 quarter high and has since unwound in a clean chain of lower highs, with last week's hawkish Fed hike accelerating the break of the 1.1550-1.1680 shelf down to a 1.1455 seven-week low. Price is now below both EMA20 (~1.1570) and EMA50 on D1, RSI(14) at 37.7 and still falling, and the market is sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the summer swing at roughly 1.1472. The last three sessions have compressed into a 1.1455-1.1500 consolidation, with 1.1500 acting as the psych cap on every attempt to recover.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1364, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1570, 1.1711
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 1.1455 seven-week low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.1364 swing low, then the 1.1324 quarter low
- Reclaiming 1.1500 and then the EMA20 near 1.1570 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
- Wednesday's flash PMIs (German/Eurozone 07:15-07:30 GMT, US 13:45 UTC) are the week's only top-tier data and could materially shift this read
- Lagarde today at 12:00 GMT and Fedspeak through the week are the near-term catalysts for the current consolidation
11:40 UTC
Downtrend, three-week leg lower · RSI 33 · price 1.14777
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1711, price under EMA20/EMA50.
The quarter-long advance off the 1.1324 june low topped at the 1.1711 prior high and has since rolled into a clean chain of lower highs and lower lows, with the last three sessions closing below both EMA20 and a flattening EMA50. Last week's hawkish FOMC and upgraded dots did the damage: a wide-range daily break through the 1.1520 shelf printed the 1.1455 seven-week low, and the subsequent two sessions have only managed to stall there rather than recover the 1.1500 psych cap. Daily RSI at ~33 is near the low end of its four-month cycle without yet reaching a washout reading, and ATR around 45 pips shows range expansion on the downside.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1565, 1.1711
What it said to watch
- A daily close below 1.1455 extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.1324 june low back in frame
- A close back above the 1.1500 psych level and then the 1.1565 ema20 would break the lower-high chain
- Wed HCOB and US flash PMIs are the week's main data risk and could reset this daily read
- Rejection at the descending line off 1.1711 keeps the downtrend structure intact