Lower highs under 1.1500, compressing above last week's low.
Monday's session opened bid near 1.1481 but faded through the European and NY hours, closing on its lows at 1.14644 with price back under EMA(20) around 1.14711 and RSI(14) near 36. The hawkish-Fed dollar tone capped every attempt: Monday's high at 1.14953 stalled well short of the 1.1500 round number, repeating the pattern since last week's post-FOMC impulse lower. Volatility has collapsed into the Asia open — the final bars held a sub-5-pip band above Monday's low at 1.14616, with the 1.14546 seven-week low still unchallenged.
Support: 1.14616, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14711, 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above EMA(20) at 1.14711 would break Monday's lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.14616 (monday low) puts the 1.14546 seven-week low in play
Sustained trade back above 1.14953 (monday high) would re-open the 1.1500 round number
Lagarde 12:00 GMT plus Fed speakers today, then Wednesday's flash PMIs, can reset this compression
22:01 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower within a range · RSI 34 · price 1.1465
Lower highs under 1.1495 since Friday, pressing the range floor.
The dominant move of the window was the single-bar collapse from 1.1556 into 1.1455 on hawkish-Fed repricing, and everything since has been base-building in a 1.1455–1.1495 band. Price opened Monday at the weekly open of 1.14814, was rejected at 1.14953 in the early NY session, then faded steadily through the NY afternoon to close the day at 1.1465, back below EMA(20) near 1.1470 with RSI(14) at ~34. Supply has capped every attempt at the range top while the session low at 1.14616 now sits only pips above Friday's 1.14546 swing low.
Support: 1.14616, 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.14814, 1.14953
What it said to watch
An H1 close below 1.14546 confirms a lower low and puts the 1.1450 psych level in play
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 1.1470 and the 1.14814 weekly open would restore the range read rather than a breakdown
Lagarde at 12:00 GMT Tuesday and the Wednesday flash PMIs are the events capable of resolving the 1.1455–1.1495 range
Thin Asia-session liquidity with ATR near 9 pips means the current drift can be reversed quickly at the London open
Post-FOMC range with lower highs, price pinned to range floor.
The dominant move of the window was the single-bar drop from 1.1556 to 1.1470 on Wednesday's hawkish FOMC hike, and everything since has been a 40-pip range between the 1.14545 range floor and the 1.1495/1.1500 area. Monday opened bid near 1.1481, tagged the 1.14953 day high around the London-NY transition, then faded through NY hours to close the session at 1.14644 — back below the EMA20 at roughly 1.1473, with RSI(14) near 40 and no bullish divergence at the lows. Each rally attempt since Thursday has stalled progressively lower, leaving the psych 1.1500 cap untested since the FOMC bar.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1473, 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.14545 range floor and the 1.1450 round number invalidates the three-session range read and confirms a lower low
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.1473 and then the 1.14953 day high would neutralise the NY-session fade
Lagarde at 12:00 GMT and Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) Tuesday can reprice this range before Wednesday's flash PMIs
Post-FOMC range 1.1455-1.1495, price in lower half under EMA20/EMA50.
Wednesday's hawkish FOMC bar dropped EURUSD ~90 pips in a single hour from 1.1545 and everything since has been sideways repair between the 1.1455 range floor — tapped twice, holding — and the 1.1495 range top, which is also this week's high. Monday opened at 1.1481, probed 1.1495 in early NY and was rejected, with the session grinding back to a fresh session low at 1.1466 into the close; price now sits below both EMA20 (~1.1474) and EMA50 (~1.1479) with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.14655, 1.14571, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14745, 1.14814, 1.14953
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.14546 range floor would confirm a range break lower and negate the double bottom
Reclaiming the ema20 and the 1.14814 weekly open is the minimum needed to re-open the 1.1495 range top
ECB's Lagarde Tue 12:00 GMT and the heavy Fed speaker slate can shift this read within the next few bars
Wednesday's flash PMIs are the week's main event risk for this range
Range between 1.1455 and 1.1495, lower highs on the day.
The window is dominated by one impulsive candle on the FOMC hike, which dropped price from 1.1545 to 1.1470 and established the 1.1455 range floor that has since held twice. Monday opened just under Friday's close, pushed to 1.14953 at the range top during the London-NY transition and was rejected, unwinding through the first hours of NY back to the 1.14661 day low with German political headlines keeping the euro heavy. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.1476 with RSI(14) around 43, so the retracement of the drop has stalled well short of the 1.1500 psych level.
Support: 1.14661, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.1476, 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.1476 ema20 would reopen the 1.14953 range top
Loss of the 1.14661 day low puts the 1.14546 range floor directly in focus and would confirm a lower low
Sustained trade above 1.1500 psych would invalidate the range read that has held since the FOMC drop
Lagarde Tue 12:00 UTC and Wednesday's flash PMIs are the events capable of resolving this range
Range between the 1.1455 week low and 1.1495 prior high, price capped by EMA20.
The dominant move of the week was the single-bar FOMC drop from 1.1545 to 1.1470 midweek, and price has done nothing since but churn between the 1.14546 week low and the 1.1495 prior high. Monday's Asia session opened firm near 1.1485 but the European and early NY hours faded it back to 1.1472 on German political headlines and still-hawkish Fed pricing, leaving the close back below EMA20 at ~1.1479. RSI(14) near 39 sits in the lower half of its cycle without pushing to an extreme, consistent with range compression rather than fresh trend extension.
Support: 1.14661, 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1479, 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1500 psych cap would invalidate the range read and put the 1.14953 prior high behind price
Loss of the 1.14546 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1450 psych area
Reclaiming and holding EMA20 (~1.1479) is the first sign the range floor is being defended
Fed speakers Tuesday (Williams 14:05, Jefferson 14:20, Barkin 17:00 UTC) and Lagarde 12:00 GMT can reprice this range within the next few bars
Post-FOMC range 1.1455-1.1495, Monday lower high into range mid-lows.
The Wednesday FOMC bar knocked price from 1.1556 to 1.1455 in one hour and the market has done nothing but consolidate that leg since, twice basing at the 7-week low near 1.14546 and twice capping under 1.14975. Monday opened at 1.14814, ground up to a lower high of 1.14953 in the European session, then gave it all back into the NY-hours slide that leaves the last close at the monday low of 1.14702, below EMA20 at ~1.1479 with RSI(14) at ~39. The hawkish Fed repricing plus renewed German political risk after Merz's state-election defeat explain why rallies keep failing well short of the 1.1500 round number.
Support: 1.14702, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.1479, 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the 7-week low at 1.14546 confirms a lower low and voids the range read
Reclaiming EMA20 at 1.1479 and the monday high at 1.14953 would restore range-top balance; 1.1500 round number remains the cap
Lagarde speaking at 15:00 GMT today and Wednesday's flash PMIs could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Post-FOMC downtrend, now ranging · RSI 55 · price 1.14862
Range 1.1455-1.1495, double bottom at range low.
Wednesday's hawkish FOMC knocked price roughly 65 pips out of the 1.1535 shelf in one bar and defined the week; since then EUR/USD has consolidated in a 1.1455-1.1495 band. Demand stepped in twice at the 1.1455 range low — first Thursday, then again in Friday's early NY hours — while the 1.1495 range top and the 1.1500 psych cap have capped every attempt. Monday's session is holding above EMA(20) near 1.1481 with the monday low at 1.1473 intact and RSI(14) cycling in the 45-60 band.
Support: 1.1481, 1.1473, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1495, 1.1500
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 1.1500 psych cap invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 1.1455 range low confirms a lower low out of the double bottom
Loss of EMA20 at 1.1481 and the monday low at 1.1473 would shift price back to the lower half of the range
Lagarde at 15:00 UTC today, and again Tuesday, can reprice the front end mid-range
US flash PMIs Wednesday are the week's main hard-data test of this consolidation
13:01 UTC
Last week's downtrend stalled, grinding higher off the base · RSI 62 · price 1.14903
Post-FOMC base with twin lows at 1.1455 and higher lows since Friday, capped under 1.1500.
The dominant move of the window was a single 75-pip slide in the Wednesday NY session on the hawkish FOMC hike, from 1.1556 to 1.1455, and everything since has been base-building rather than trend extension. Twin lows at 1.1455/1.1454 on Thursday and Friday held, and Monday's session has traced higher lows off 1.1471 with price back above the EMA20 near 1.1479 and pushing to 1.1490 into the London-NY transition. The 1.1490/1.14975 band, which is where Thursday's bounce failed, is the immediate cap and 1.1500 remains the psych level that has contained every attempt since the FOMC drop.
Support: 1.1479, 1.14706, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1500, 1.15562
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.14975 thu high, and then the 1.1500 psych level, would end the sideways read and confirm the double bottom
Loss of the 1.14706 mon low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 1.14546 week low back in play
ECB Lagarde at 15:00 GMT today plus Cipollone shortly after can re-rate this range within the next few bars
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.14790 on a pullback would flatten the Monday recovery
Sideways consolidation under lower highs after an impulsive leg down.
The dominant move in this window was the ~85-pip vertical drop from 1.1545 into 1.1470 during the NY session mid-week on hawkish-Fed repricing, and price has done nothing but consolidate since. Four sessions of 1.1455–1.1497 chop have built a flat range with supply capping each push into the range top, while the week low at 1.1455 has been defended twice. Monday's Asia and early London hours have price at 1.1483, marginally above EMA(20) near 1.1478 with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s — neutral, mid-range positioning.
Support: 1.1478, 1.1471, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1490, 1.1497, 1.1500
What it said to watch
An H1 close above 1.1497 and then the 1.1500 psych cap would invalidate the range read
Failure to hold 1.1455 confirms a lower-low and extends the mid-week impulse
Loss of the monday low at 1.1471 and EMA(20) shifts the range floor into focus
Lagarde at 15:00 GMT today is the nearest event risk that could break this consolidation
Basing range under lower highs after Thursday's break.
The dominant move of the week was Thursday's single-bar 65-pip slide through 1.1530 into the London-NY transition as the hawkish Fed repricing took hold; since then price has built a base, with the 1.1455 week low tested twice and holding. Monday's Asia and early London hours have compressed into a 1.1471–1.1485 band either side of the H1 EMA(20) near 1.1478, RSI(14) flat around 50 and ATR(14) down to roughly 7 pips. Friday's high at 1.1490 and the 1.1500 psych cap have contained every recovery attempt since the break.
Support: 1.1471, 1.1478, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1490, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1490 (friday high) would end the lower-highs sequence and put 1.1500 psych cap back in play
Loss of 1.1471 monday low re-exposes the 1.1455 week low and the double bottom base
Lagarde 15:00 GMT plus Fed's Goolsbee earlier could break the current low-volatility consolidation
10:01 UTC
Downtrend from Wednesday, momentum flat since · RSI 45 · price 1.14794
Post-Fed impulse lower, four-day base between 1.1455 and 1.1490.
The dominant move of the window was Wednesday's NY-session collapse from 1.1556 to 1.1470 on the hawkish Fed hike and lifted dot plot; everything since has been a flat base. Price has spent four sessions oscillating between the 1.14546 week low and the 1.1490 prior high, with EMA(20) and EMA(50) converged into the 1.1478/1.1480 pocket and RSI(14) stuck in the mid-40s. The weekend gap opened a shade below Friday's close and Monday's Asia and early-London hours have held a tight 1.14706 day low against a 1.14856 session high.
Support: 1.14706, 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14899, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.14546 week low, and through the 1.1450 round number, confirms a lower low out of the base
Sustained acceptance above the 1.14899 prior high, then the 1.1500 psych cap, invalidates the four-day range read
Lagarde at 15:00 GMT today, then Wednesday's flash PMIs, are the catalysts capable of breaking this compression
Post-Fed range: lower highs over a flat 1.1455 base.
The week's dominant move was a single bar: the Fed decision and hawkish dot plot on Wednesday evening knocked EUR/USD from 1.1556 to 1.1470, and the pair has done nothing but consolidate the drop since, twice basing at the 1.1455 seven-week low. Friday's NY session recovery stalled at 1.1490 — the 38.2% retracement of the Fed drop — and Monday's Asia and early London sessions have compressed into a 1.1471-1.1486 band with ATR down near 9 pips. Price is pinned on EMA(20) around 1.1477 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, and the 1.1500 psych cap remains untested since the drop.
Support: 1.1477, 1.1471, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1490, 1.1497, 1.1500
What it said to watch
An H1 close above 1.1490 breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.1500 psych cap back in play
A sustained close below the 1.1455 7-week low invalidates the double bottom base and the range read
Loss of the 1.1471 monday low would mark the first lower low of this week's structure
Lagarde speaking 15:00 GMT today is a high-impact event for this compressed range; Wednesday's flash PMIs are the week's bigger structural risk
Post-breakdown range, lower highs into flat floor.
EUR/USD has gone nowhere since the 65-pip Fed-driven drop in Wednesday's NY session, which knocked price out of the 1.1530s and into a 1.1455-1.1497 band. The week low at 1.14546 was tested twice on Thursday and Friday and held, while supply has built a series of lower highs into 1.14914; Friday closed at 1.14852. Monday's Asia-into-London hours have drifted from the 1.14814 weekly open down to 1.14754, leaving price pinned on EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the low 40s and ATR(14) compressed near 8 pips.
Support: 1.14706, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14814, 1.14852, 1.14914
What it said to watch
H1 close below today's low at 1.14706 puts the 1.14546 week low back in play as the range floor
Reclaiming the 1.14852 friday close and the 1.14914 lower highs would invalidate the drift lower
Sustained trade above the 1.14814 weekly open would neutralise Monday's downward bias in the range
Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 UTC) and Lagarde (15:00 UTC) land inside the next few bars and could break the compression
Post-FOMC range 1.1455-1.1498, lower highs since Friday's peak.
The 65-pip drop in the Wednesday evening bar after the hawkish FOMC dot plot set the floor of the week's structure, and price has since oscillated between 1.1455 and roughly 1.1498 without resolving. Friday's NY session probed the six-week low at 1.14546 before recovering to 1.14899, but Monday's Asia and early European hours have given that recovery back, with rejection at the monday high near 1.14852 and price now slipping under the ema20 at 1.14764. RSI(14) in the mid-40s with a compressed 6.5-pip ATR reflects range conditions rather than trend, consistent with the digest's read that EUR is heavy but capped below 1.1500.
Support: 1.14708, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14764, 1.14852, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 trade below the 1.14546 six-week low confirms a lower low and voids the range read
Hourly closes back above the ema20 and then the 1.14852 monday high are needed to re-engage the post-FOMC high at 1.14975
Loss of the 1.14708 session low would extend the drift toward the range floor
Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 UTC) and Lagarde (15:00 UTC) today can reprice this range within the next few bars; Wednesday's flash PMIs are the larger structural risk
06:02 UTC
Downtrend on this week's leg, now flat inside a base · RSI 47 · price 1.14723
Lower highs since Thursday over a 1.1455 floor.
The dominant move of the window was Wednesday's hawkish-Fed impulse, a single-bar slide from 1.1535 to 1.1470 during the NY session that has framed everything since. Friday's push below 1.1460 to 1.14546 was bought back into the London-NY transition, leaving a false break of the floor and a 1.1455-1.1490 base, while each rebound has stalled lower — 1.14975, then 1.14899. Asia and early Europe today drifted the pair back under the 1.14814 weekly open and marginally below EMA(20), with RSI(14) parked near the midline and ATR(14) at roughly 7.5 pips in thin holiday conditions.
Support: 1.14716, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14814, 1.14899, 1.1500
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the 1.14546 six-week low confirms a lower low and reopens the 1.1400 area
Reclaiming the 1.14814 weekly open and then the 1.14899 week high would invalidate the lower-highs sequence
Lagarde at 15:00 UTC is the session's main event risk and could reset this range read
Failure to hold the 1.14716 day low keeps the base under pressure into the NY session
05:02 UTC
Sideways after the post-FOMC drop, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 1.14744
Range between 1.1455 and 1.1497, lower highs since Thursday.
The single vertical bar of the week came in the NY session on Wednesday's Fed decision, dropping EURUSD from 1.1556 to 1.1470 in one hour; everything since has been a 40-pip range between the 1.1455 six-week low and the 1.1497 range top. Thursday and Friday both bottomed at 1.1455 to the pip — a double bottom shelf — while each rebound has stalled below the friday high at 1.14899, keeping the 1.1500 psych level untested since the drop. This week's holiday-thin Asia session opened a touch firmer near 1.1485 before fading back to the 1.1473 asia low, leaving price marginally under the 1.1477 ema20 with RSI(14) parked near 47.
Support: 1.14731, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.1477, 1.14899, 1.1500
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1455 shelf confirms a lower-low out of the range and opens the 1.1400 area
Reclaiming the 1.1477 ema20 and then the 1.14899 friday high would invalidate the lower-highs read
Lagarde 15:00 UTC (high impact) with Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 UTC ahead of it — either could break this range in thin liquidity
04:03 UTC
Post-FOMC downtrend, now flat and ranging · RSI 47 · price 1.14743
Range between the 1.1455 double low and 1.1497, lower highs compressing.
Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike took roughly 75 pips out of the pair in a single bar and the market has done nothing but chop between 1.1455 and 1.1497 since, with Friday's German PPI beat failing to force a breakout either way. Monday's Asian session opened near the top of that band and has since slipped back under EMA(20) around 1.1477, leaving RSI(14) flat near 47 and a 1.14741 session low in place. Two near-identical lows at 1.14546 (Thursday and Friday) form the base, while lower highs from Thursday's 1.14975 down through Friday's 1.14899 and the 1.14852 monday high are squeezing the range.
Support: 1.14741, 1.14546, 1.1440
Resistance: 1.1477, 1.14852, 1.14975
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.14546 double low would confirm a lower low and void the range read
Reclaiming and holding the 1.14852 monday high, with price back above ema20, would put the 1.14975 thu high back in play
Loss of the 1.14741 session low keeps price pinned in the lower half of the range
Lagarde (15:00 GMT) and Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 GMT) fall inside the next few H1 bars and could break this compression
Four-day base after impulsive drop; lower highs vs flat lows.
The dominant move of the window was a single-hour, 85-pip slide during the NY session after the hawkish Fed decision, which dropped the pair from 1.1556 to 1.1455 and set the week low. Since then price has built a flat range: the 1.1455 area held twice to the pip, while the post-FOMC rebound high at 1.1497 and the 1.1490 range top have capped every attempt, with 1.1500 psych untested. Monday's Asia session has opened inert either side of EMA20 near 1.1476, RSI(14) pinned at 50 and ATR(14) compressed to ~8 pips.
Support: 1.1476, 1.1458, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1490, 1.1497, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 trade below 1.1455 week low breaks the double bottom and confirms a lower low
An hourly close above the 1.1490 range top would end the four-day range read and put 1.1497 and 1.1500 psych back in play
Loss of 1.1458 range base on a close would be the first structural crack in the base
Lagarde speech 15:00 GMT today is the nearest event risk capable of breaking this compression
02:02 UTC
Sideways, post-FOMC base building · RSI 56 · price 1.14823
Range 1.1455–1.1497, higher lows since Friday's dip.
The dominant move of the window was the single-hour flush from 1.1556 to 1.1470 on the hawkish Fed repricing, after which price has done nothing but build a base between the 1.1455 range low and the 1.14975 range top. Friday's NY session dipped to 1.14546 — a second tap of the same floor — and closed back at 1.14853, and Monday's thin Asia session is holding a 1.14755–1.14852 coil just above EMA(20) at 1.1478. RSI(14) at 56 sits mid-range with no divergence; the friday high at 1.14899 is the nearest cap.
Support: 1.14776, 1.14755, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14899, 1.14975, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 closes above 1.14975 range top would invalidate the range read and put the 1.1500 psych level in play
Failure to hold 1.14546 range low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.1400 area
Loss of EMA20 at 1.1478 and the 1.14755 asia low would shift the coil lower within the range
Lagarde speech 15:00 GMT today (18:00 broker) is the first event risk capable of breaking this range
Post-impulse range after Wednesday's breakdown; higher lows since Friday's low.
The week's dominant move was Wednesday's NY-session breakout lower — the hawkish Fed hike and lifted dot plot knocked a single H1 bar 75 pips out of the 1.1530/1.1556 shelf into 1.1455. Since then price has built a range between the 1.14546 range low and the 1.14975 range top, with Friday's NY recovery carving higher lows off 1.1455 and the tape closing the week at 1.14853 below Friday high resistance at 1.14899. Monday's broker open gapped marginally lower and is holding just above EMA(20) near 1.1477, RSI(14) mid-band at 57 — consolidation rather than continuation so far.
Support: 1.1477, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14899, 1.14975, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks 15:00 UTC today (high impact) — the main scheduled risk to this range read
Sustained H1 closes below the 1.14546 range low would confirm a lower low and open the 1.1435/1.1400 zone flagged into this week
A close above the 1.14975 range top, and then the 1.1500 psych handle, would invalidate the post-FOMC range
Loss of EMA20 near 1.1477 with RSI slipping under 50 would mark the Friday higher-lows sequence as broken
00:02 UTC
Lower on the week, momentum flat since Thursday · RSI 51 · price 1.14779
Post-FOMC range 1.1455-1.1498, flat lows, marginally lower highs.
The dominant move of the window was Wednesday's NY-session slide, a single hourly bar from 1.1545 to 1.1470 on the hawkish Fed hike and higher dot path, after which price has done nothing but rotate inside 1.1455-1.1498. Friday's London drop tagged 1.14546, almost exactly the Wednesday low at 1.14545, leaving a flat range floor before the NY session lifted the pair back to 1.1490. Monday's Asia open is pinned to EMA(20) around 1.1476 with RSI(14) back at the midline, so the post-FOMC range is still intact.
Support: 1.1476, 1.1455, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.1490, 1.14975, 1.1530
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.1455 weekly low invalidates the double bottom and exposes the 1.1435 next shelf
Acceptance above the 1.14975 post-fomc hi is needed to break the range top and put the 1.1530 pre-fomc low back in play
Lagarde at 15:00 UTC today is the session's main euro risk and could reshape this range read
Loss of EMA20 with lower highs building would tilt the range toward its floor