Lower highs into a tight late-session coil above the NY low.
Monday's NY session ground lower from 1.1489 to an 1.14616 NY low, with the bounce capped at 1.14691 and price now coiled in a 5-pip band into early Asia, holding just under the ema20 at 1.14646. ATR has collapsed to ~2.5 pips and RSI(14) sits mid-40s — no impulse here, the chain of lower highs from 1.14757 is still intact while the dollar holds its post-FOMC gains.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14646, 1.14691, 1.14757
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14691 swing high would break the lower-high chain and put 1.14757 prior high back in play
Loss of the 1.14616 ny low extends the leg toward the 1.14600 psych level
Asia volumes are thin; the coil is likely resolved on the London open rather than inside it
Lagarde at 12:00 GMT is the first scheduled risk that can shift this intraday read
Lower highs into a tight late-session coil above the session low.
EUR/USD was sold through the NY session from 1.1495 to a 1.14616 session low as the dollar held above the 100.00 area post-FOMC, and price has since coiled in a 1.1462–1.1469 band. Thin early-Asia bars are printing sub-1-pip ranges with price pinned just under EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) has compressed to about 3 pips and RSI(14) sits mid-40s — no setup in play.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14691, 1.14757
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14691 range top would break the chain of lower highs and put 1.14757 swing high back in scope
Loss of the 1.14616 session low exposes the 1.14600 round number
Lagarde 12:00 GMT and Fed speakers today are the first liquidity events that can break this coil
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat at the lows · RSI 46 · price 1.14644
Lower highs off 1.14953 into a tight Asia-session base above 1.14616.
NY hours sold EUR/USD from 1.14953 down to a 1.14616 session low as the dollar stayed firm under hawkish Fed pricing. Early Asia has done nothing since: price is pinned in a 6-pip band between 1.14632 and the 1.14676 swing high, ATR(14) down to ~2 pips and RSI(14) mid-40s — no structure in play until one edge goes.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1456, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14676, 1.14722, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.14676 swing high, then 1.14722 prior high, would break the lower-high chain off 1.14953
Loss of the 1.14616 session low extends the leg toward the 1.1456 seven-week low and the 1.1450 psych level
Liquidity is thin at this hour — the first London bars usually decide whether this consolidation resolves
Lagarde 12:00 GMT and US ADP data later in the session could reprice the pair well beyond current 2-pip ATR
Lower highs into a tight late-session consolidation.
The NY leg down carried EURUSD from 1.14953 to a 1.14616 session low as the dollar stayed firm on hawkish Fed pricing. Since then price has gone flat between 1.14616 and the 1.14691 swing high on collapsing ranges into the Asia handover, ATR(14) about 3.4 pips and RSI(14) near 37 — no setup in play.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14691, 1.14757
What it said to watch
Asia-hours close below the 1.14616 session low confirms a fresh lower low and puts the 1.14600 round number in play
Reclaim of 1.14691 swing high breaks the lower-highs chain and opens 1.14757 prior swing
Lagarde 12:00 GMT and US ADP 12:15 GMT later today can materially reset this intraday read
NY hours unwound the London push, price rolling from the 1.14953 london high through the 1.14757 ny swing high to a 1.14616 session low as the dollar stayed firm on Fed hike pricing. Since then it has gone flat, boxed between 1.14616 and the 1.14691 range top with ATR(14) down near 3 pips and RSI(14) mid-40s — no structure in play in thin early-Asia liquidity.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14691, 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14691 range top would break the sequence of lower highs and re-open 1.14757
Loss of the 1.14616 session low extends the NY downleg toward the 1.1450 psych level
Asia-session ranges this thin often only resolve on the London open; expansion off current sub-3-pip ATR is the first tell
European speakers and US data later in the session are the next scheduled catalysts capable of shifting this read
Lower highs into a tight late-session base above 1.14616.
NY hours sold the 1.14953 ny high down to a 1.14616 session low as DXY held above 100 on continued Fed hike pricing; the last 4 hours are a 1.14616–1.14691 base on minimal volume into the Asia open. RSI(14) at ~46 has ticked up while price holds flat, price still under EMA20 and EMA50, ATR(14) ~2.6 pips reflecting dead post-NY conditions.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1460, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14691, 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
15m close above the 1.14691 micro high would end the lower-high sequence off 1.14757 swing high
Loss of the 1.14616 session low and the 1.14600 round number exposes the 1.14560 7-week low
Lagarde 12:00 GMT and US ADP 4-week average could break this base once Europe arrives
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.14652
Lower highs into a tight late-session consolidation.
EURUSD sold from 1.14953 through the NY session to a 1.14616 session low, with a firm dollar keeping rallies capped, and has since gone flat in 1.5–3 pip bars as Asia opens. Price is pinned to EMA20 inside 1.14616–1.14691, ATR(14) down to 2.6 pips — no structural development until the swing high or session low goes.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14691, 1.14757
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14691 swing high would break the lower-high chain and put 1.14757 prior high back in play
Loss of the 1.14616 session low exposes the 1.14600 round number and confirms continuation of the intraday downtrend
Thin early-Asia liquidity means the current consolidation can be invalidated on little flow; Lagarde 12:00 GMT is the next scheduled EUR risk
Lower highs from 1.1495, now coiling above the session low.
EUR/USD rolled over from the 1.14953 session high through the London-NY handover as the dollar stayed firm on hawkish Fedspeak, printing a lower low at 1.14616 in NY hours before stalling. Last four hours are a 1.1462-1.1470 chop on thin post-NY-close volume, RSI(14) mid-40s and price under both EMA20 and EMA50 — no fresh structure in play.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1456, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.14722, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1470 range top, and then 1.14722 prior high, breaks the lower-high chain off the session high
Loss of the 1.14616 session low exposes the 1.1456 seven-week low and the 1.1450 psych level
ATR(14) near 3 pips — Asia-session ranges are compressed and prone to expansion on the European open
Lagarde and Fed speakers later Tuesday could reprice the pair beyond this range
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening into the close · RSI 42 · price 1.14636
Chain of lower highs since the session high; last eight bars coiled just above the session low.
Price rolled over from the 1.14953 session high through London and NY, printing successive lower highs and a session low at 1.14616, with the firmer dollar after hawkish Fed repricing keeping EUR pinned near late-July lows. Into the post-NY-close hours the market has gone flat: a 1.14632–1.14677 coil, ATR(14) near 3 pips and RSI(14) around 42, price under both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14691, 1.1476, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 1.14616 session low would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1450 psych area
A close above the 1.14691 recent high would break the lower-high chain; 1.14760 swing high is the next shelf
Thin Asia-session liquidity can distort the coil — range expansion is more likely once London arrives
ADP four-week average and Fed speakers later in the session are the nearest catalysts for this range
NY hours sold the pair from the 1.14953 session high down to a 1.14616 session low with the dollar firm post-hawkish Fed, and price has since coiled in a 1.14634-1.14701 band into the Asia open on thin volume. Each bounce has stalled below the 1.14701 swing high, keeping the chain of lower highs from 1.14757 intact; RSI(14) near 44.6 and ATR(14) at ~2.6 pips show compressed intraday range.
Support: 1.14634, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.14701, 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 1.14701 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts 1.14757 back in play
Loss of 1.14616 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1450/1.1456 seven-week low area
Very thin Asia-open liquidity can distort the range floor at 1.14634; London open is the first real test
Lagarde (12:00 GMT) and US ADP 4-week average could reprice this range intraday
EURUSD slid from the 1.14953 London-session high through NY to a 1.14616 session low as the dollar held firm on hawkish-Fed pricing, and has since gone flat: the last ten bars are pinned between the 1.14641 range floor and the 1.14691 range top with ATR(14) at ~3 pips. RSI(14) near 39 and price under both EMA20 and EMA50 — a drifting, low-volatility tape into the Asia handover, no setup in play.
Support: 1.14616, 1.14641
Resistance: 1.14691, 1.14757
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.14691 range top and then 1.14757 breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.14616 session low confirms continuation of the NY leg lower
Thin late-session liquidity: ATR ~3 pips means small absolute moves read as breaks
ECB's Nagel (08:30 GMT) and Lagarde (12:00 GMT) in the coming session can reset this range
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening into late NY · RSI 39 · price 1.14646
Lower highs / lower lows off the 1.1495 day high, now coiling in a 1.1462-1.1469 band.
EUR/USD was rejected at the 1.1495 day high around the London-NY transition and bled ~34 pips through NY to a 1.14616 session low as the dollar stayed firm on hawkish Fedspeak. Last two hours are a tight consolidation between the session low and the 1.1470 pivot, price pinned just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR compressed to under 3 pips in the dead late-NY hours.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14616 session low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.1460 round number
Reclaiming the 1.1470 pivot on a close would break the lower-high chain built off the day high
Liquidity thinning into the Asia handover — ATR near 2.6 pips means small ranges until Tokyo
Tuesday ADP 4-week average and Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin), plus Lagarde at 12:00 GMT, can reset this intraday range
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling into the close · RSI 35 · price 1.14636
Lower highs / lower lows off the London high, last 6 bars compressing.
NY session ground lower off the 1.14953 London high, printing a session low at 1.14616 before a shallow bounce was capped at the 1.14691 bounce high; the last closed bar sits at 1.14636, below EMA20 and EMA50, RSI(14) near 35. ATR(14) is just 2.6 pips — thin, late-session conditions with the dollar holding its post-FOMC gains and EUR unable to reclaim 1.1500.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14691, 1.14757
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14691 bounce high breaks the chain of lower highs; a reclaim of the 1.14757 swing high would unwind the NY leg down
Loss of the 1.14616 session low and the 1.14600 round number extends the leg toward the 1.1450 seven-week low area
ECB Nagel 08:30 GMT and Lagarde 12:00 GMT Tuesday, plus ADP, are the next scheduled events capable of resetting this intraday range
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling into late NY · RSI 37 · price 1.14642
Lower highs and lower lows since the London-NY overlap, now consolidating just above the session low.
Rejection of the 1.14953 day high at the London-NY overlap led to a clean break of the Asian range floor, with USD firm just above the 100.00 DXY area. Since then price has ground out a 1.14616-1.14701 band, the session low tested once at 18:30 UTC, RSI(14) near 37 and price under both EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR only ~3 pips in thin late-session trade.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14701, 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close below the 1.14616 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1460 round number
Reclaiming the 1.14757 ny bounce high would break the descending lower-highs line and neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Liquidity is thin into the Asia reopen; Lagarde (Tue 12:00 GMT) is the next scheduled event able to reshape this range
Lower highs / lower lows into a late-NY basing range.
NY session drove a clean lower-high chain from the session high at 1.14953 down to a session low of 1.14616, consistent with the dollar holding firm above 100.00 on the index. Last four bars are basing in a 1.14649–1.14701 pocket with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) around 3 pips — volatility drained into the daily close, no setup in play.
Support: 1.14649, 1.14616, 1.14595
Resistance: 1.14701, 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above the 1.14701 minor high, and then 1.14757 swing high, breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.14616 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.14595 round number
Price is pinned to EMA20 with EMA50 overhead — reclaiming EMA50 would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Thin late-session liquidity; Asia reopen and Tuesday's Lagarde appearance can re-price this range quickly
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 44 · price 1.14679
EURUSD topped at 1.14953 into the London-NY transition and ground lower all NY session, printing a session low of 1.14616 before a shallow 6-pip bounce; the firm dollar with DXY holding above 100.00 post-FOMC kept rallies capped. Late NY has gone quiet — last four bars coil 1.14616-1.14686 with price pinned around EMA20 and RSI(14) near 43, ATR(14) just 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.14616, 1.14649, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14722, 1.14763, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Close above 1.14763 (ny swing) breaks the lower-high chain built off the day high
Failure to hold 1.14616 session low exposes the 1.1460 round number
Thin late-NY liquidity into the Asia open can distort the coil; Asian range will reset reference levels
Lagarde and US Fed speakers later in the session are the next scheduled risk to this intraday read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.14675
Lower highs / lower lows since the 1.1495 European high, now flat-lining above the session low.
EUR/USD ground lower all NY session from the 1.1495 European high, printing a fresh session low at 1.14616 before a shallow 5-pip recovery into the close — consistent with the firm post-FOMC dollar and German political noise capping euro rallies. Price is pinned around EMA20 with ATR(14) down to ~3 pips and RSI(14) mid-range near 47; no structural event in play at this hour.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.14722
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14616 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.14600 round number
A close back above the 1.14722 swing high would break the chain of lower highs
Thin late-NY liquidity: the 1.14700 psych level is the first hurdle on any Asia-session bounce
ECB's Lagarde Tue 12:00 GMT and Wed's flash PMIs are the next scheduled risk to this read
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 39 · price 1.14644
Chain of lower highs and lower lows since the London high; fresh session low on the last impulse.
After the London push to the 1.14953 day high faded, EURUSD has stair-stepped down through NY hours, rolling through the 1.14757 NY pullback high and the 1.14701 lower high to print a fresh session low at 1.14616 — consistent with a firm dollar holding post-FOMC gains and the euro capped below 1.1500. Price sits under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR(14) compressed to roughly 3 pips, so ranges are thin into the late-NY tape.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14701, 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Acceptance below 1.14616 keeps the lower-low sequence intact and exposes the 1.1450 psych area
A reclaim of the 1.14701 lower high would break the descending lower-high chain and neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Thin late-NY and Asia liquidity can distort the small ATR(14); ECB speakers and Fed speakers later in the session are the next scheduled risk to this read
Lower highs since 1.14953, range break to the downside.
Rejection at the 1.14953 session high during the London-NY overlap gave way to a steady chain of lower highs, and late NY hours broke the 1.14661 shelf to print a new session low at 1.14616 with USD firm on hawkish-Fed pricing. RSI(14) near 29 and ATR(14) around 3 pips — thin, grinding downside rather than an impulsive flush.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.14700 prior chop would invalidate the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 1.14616 session low keeps the 1.14500 round number in focus
Tuesday's Fed speaker slate and Lagarde could materially shift this intraday read
Chain of lower highs and lower lows since the 12:00 UTC day high, compressing above the session low.
Rejection at the 1.14953 day high just after the London-NY handover flipped the M15 structure lower; price has since ground out lower lows into a fresh session low at 1.14644, with the USD firm after last week's hawkish FOMC and the euro capped under 1.1500. Last eight bars are a tight drift under the 1.14701 micro shelf, ATR(14) down to ~3.4 pips and RSI(14) near 30 — sellers in control but the range is thin in late NY hours.
Support: 1.14644, 1.1460, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14701, 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Acceptance back above the 1.14757 ny pullback high would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 1.14644 session low exposes the 1.14600 round number and the 1.14560 7-wk low
Late-NY liquidity thinning; Tuesday's ADP average and Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) can reset this intraday read
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into the close · RSI 33 · price 1.14644
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.14953 session high; price at session low.
EUR/USD rolled over from the 1.14953 session high during NY hours and has since stair-stepped to a fresh session low at 1.14644, with the USD firm after last week's hawkish Fed repricing. Price is pinned under the ema20 near 1.14700 on thin late-session flow, ATR(14) just 3.4 pips, and RSI(14) at 33 without reaching a genuine oversold extreme.
Support: 1.14644, 1.1456, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.14700 (ema20) and then the 1.14757 ny pivot would invalidate the lower-high chain
Sustained trade below the session low at 1.14644 puts the 1.1456 seven-week low and the 1.1450 psych level in range
Asia reopen liquidity and Tuesday's Fed speaker slate can reset this intraday range
18:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat at the lows · RSI 32 · price 1.14659
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY-open spike; last ~10 bars coiling in a 4-pip band.
NY session spiked to the 1.14953 session high just after 12:00 UTC, was rejected, and gave back the whole move, with the 1.14807 breakdown level capping every bounce since. Price is now pinned in a 4-pip coil just above the 1.14659 session low, RSI(14) near 32 and ATR(14) compressed to ~3.4 pips as the firm dollar post-FOMC keeps rallies short-lived.
Support: 1.14659, 1.1460, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.14807, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.14757 swing high would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.14659 session low opens the 1.14600 round number and the 1.14500 7-week low
With ATR(14) near 3.4 pips, Fedspeak and thin late-NY liquidity can expand the range quickly
Tuesday's Lagarde appearance and the ADP print are the next scheduled risks to this compressed structure
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling at the lows · RSI 31 · price 1.14659
Lower highs since the 12:00 UTC peak, price pinned at session low.
EUR/USD failed at the 1.14953 session high into the London-NY transition and sold off ~30 pips, with German political risk and a firm dollar keeping the bounce capped well under the 1.14830 asia range top. The last three hours have been a tight 1.1466–1.1476 coil under a chain of lower highs, and the closing bar prints a marginal new session low at 1.14659 with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) just 3.3 pips.
Support: 1.14659, 1.1460, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.1483, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.14659 session low, and through the 1.1460 psych figure, extends the leg toward the 1.1450 seven-week low
A close back above 1.14757 breaks the lower-highs chain and re-opens the 1.14830 asia range top
Thin late-NY liquidity means the coil can widen on little news; Lagarde and the Fed speaker slate Tuesday are the next scheduled inputs
Lower highs since the NY-open spike, price pinned on the session low.
EUR/USD spiked to the 1.14953 day high at the NY open then sold 29 pips into 1.14661, with the firm post-FOMC dollar and revived German political risk capping rallies. The last three hours are a 10-pip drift beneath the 1.14757 swing high, and the final bars are retesting the session low with ATR compressed to ~3 pips.
Support: 1.14661, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes below the 1.14661 session low expose the 1.1456 7-week low
Reclaim of the 1.14757 swing high breaks the lower-high chain built since the day high
Late-NY liquidity thinning — ATR near 3 pips means small moves look outsized
Lagarde 12:00 UTC Tuesday is the next scheduled risk for this read
Lower highs off 1.14953, compression above the session low.
EUR/USD rolled over from the 1.14953 session high printed at the 12:00 UTC bar and lost the 1.14708 Asia low into NY, basing at 1.14661 — consistent with German political risk capping EUR while the Dollar holds its post-FOMC firmness. Last eight bars have compressed into a 1.14676–1.14722 band with ATR(14) down to ~4 pips and RSI(14) mid-40s; price is pinned under EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.14661, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14708, 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above the 1.14757 ny pivot breaks the lower-high chain built off the session high
Loss of the 1.14661 session low exposes the 1.1460 round number
Reclaiming 1.14708 asia low would neutralise the NY breakdown
Lagarde (Tue 12:00 UTC) and Tuesday Fed speakers are the next scheduled risk to this compression
Lower highs into tight late-NY compression above the session low.
Price was rejected at the 1.14953 session high around the London-NY transition and sold off to 1.14661, with the digest pointing at German political risk and a firm Dollar keeping EUR capped below 1.15. Since then late NY hours have been a 10-pip drift, ATR(14) down to ~3.6 pips, price pinned under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.14661, 1.1454
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14757 swing high would break the chain of lower highs formed since the session high
Loss of the 1.14661 session low on a closing basis extends the NY leg toward the 1.1454 seven-week low
Thin late-NY ranges mean the read resets on the Asia open; Lagarde Tue 12:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.14953 rejection, now compressed in a tight late-NY range.
The NY session rejected 1.14953 and sold down to a 1.14661 session low, with EUR heavy on renewed German political risk after the Merz state-election defeat and a firm Dollar. Last eight bars have coiled in a 1.14662–1.14722 band below EMA20 and EMA50, RSI(14) near 35 and ATR(14) around 4 pips — range-bound drift, no fresh structure.
Support: 1.14661, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.14661 session low confirms another lower low and puts the 1.14600 round number in focus
Reclaiming the 1.14757 pullback high would break the lower-high chain and invalidate the downtrend read
Thin late-NY liquidity is keeping ranges inside ATR; ECB's Lagarde tomorrow 12:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk to this structure
Lower highs off 1.14953, flat base above the 1.14661 session low.
Rejection at the 1.14953 session high just before the NY open unwound the whole Asian range, price cutting through the 1.1483 asia range floor to 1.14661 with EUR heavy on the German political headlines. The last four hours are pure compression between 1.14661 and the 1.14757 range top, ATR(14) down to ~4 pips and price pinned under EMA20.
Support: 1.14661, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.1483, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14757 range top would break the lower-high sequence off 1.14953
Failure to hold the 1.14661 session low exposes the 1.1456 7-week low
Late-NY liquidity thinning; Tuesday's Lagarde and Fed speaker slate is the next scheduled risk to this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 15:00 broker time; last 10 bars compressing just above the session low.
Price rejected the 1.14953 session high at the London-NY transition and sold 29 pips into the NY session, breaking below the Asian range and the 1.14828 prior swing with the German political risk premium and a firm Dollar behind the move. Last ten bars are boxed between 1.14661 and the 1.14757 range top, RSI(14) at 38.6 and ATR(14) just 4.4 pips — momentum has stalled without a bounce.
Support: 1.14661, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.14828, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above the 1.14757 range top breaks the lower-high chain built since the session high
Loss of the 1.14661 session low on a closing basis extends the leg toward the 1.14550 7-week low area
Lagarde (Tue 12:00 UTC) and Wednesday's flash PMIs are the next scheduled catalysts capable of resetting this intraday range
Chain of lower highs and lower lows since the NY open, now basing above the session low.
Price rejected the 1.14953 session high early in NY hours and sold through the Asian range into 1.14661, with German political risk and firm USD commentary keeping EUR heavy. The last six bars have coiled in a 1.14661–1.14757 band under EMA20, RSI(14) near 34 with no divergence yet; each bounce has been capped at the 1.14757 lower high.
Support: 1.14661, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.1483, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above the 1.14757 lower high would break the sequence of lower highs and put the 1.14830 asian range base back in play
Loss of the 1.14661 session low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.14560 7-week low area
ATR(14) at ~4 pips means the current consolidation is tight — expansion beyond it is the first sign the range read is stale
No tier-1 EUR or USD releases in the remaining NY hours; Lagarde and Fed speakers tomorrow are the next scheduled risk
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg extending · RSI 25 · price 1.14668
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.14953 NY high; price pinned at session lows.
EURUSD rolled over from the 1.14953 NY high and has traded a clean lower-high chain into the close at 1.14668, just above the 1.14661 session low, with hawkish Fed pricing and German political noise keeping rallies capped. RSI(14) near 25 and ATR(14) around 4.5 pips — stretched to the downside but the sequence of lower highs is intact, supply capping every bounce at 1.14728.
Support: 1.14661, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14728, 1.14808, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14661 exposes the 1.146 round number
A 15-minute close back above the 1.14728 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of 1.14808 supply would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) Tuesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY session high, now basing just above 1.14661.
NY session rejected the 1.14953 session high and drove price through the 1.14808 shelf to 1.14661, with hawkish Fed pricing and German political headlines keeping the pair capped well below 1.1500. Last six bars have coiled in a 5-pip band under the 1.14757 lower high, RSI(14) near 31 and price holding below EMA20/EMA50; ATR(14) is a thin 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.14661, 1.14619
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.14808, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.14661 session low extends the NY leg toward the 1.14619 friday low
Reclaim of the 1.14757 lower high breaks the descending sequence off the session high
Tuesday Fed speakers and Lagarde are the next scheduled risk to this intraday range
Lower highs and lower lows since midday, now basing.
EURUSD rolled over from the 1.14953 session high into the NY open, slicing the 1.14828 prior base and printing a session low at 1.14661 with the dollar holding firm post-FOMC. Last five bars have gone flat in a 1.1469–1.1476 shelf under the 1.14757 swing high, RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) around 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.14661, 1.14603
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.14828, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Close below 1.14661 session low confirms another lower low and exposes the 1.14603 friday low
Reclaim of the 1.14757 swing high would break the lower-high chain and neutralise the intraday downtrend
Lagarde (plus Cipollone) speaking now — headline risk can reprice this shelf within the next bars
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg stalling · RSI 29 · price 1.14699
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY morning high; basing above the session low.
EURUSD rolled over from the 1.14953 day high into the NY session, breaking the Asian range floor and printing a session low at 1.14661 as the dollar held firm and German political risk weighed on the euro around Lagarde's 15:00 GMT remarks. Last four bars are compressing in a 1.14661–1.14757 band with RSI(14) near 29 and price pinned below EMA20 (~1.1480); ATR(14) about 5 pips, so ranges are thin.
Support: 1.14661, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.1480, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14757 swing high would break the lower-high chain and put the ema20 near 1.14800 back in play
A close below the 1.14661 session low confirms a fresh lower low with 1.14600 psych the next reference
Lagarde commentary in the next hours could shift this read
15:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the day high · RSI 38 · price 1.14723
Lower highs since 12:00 UTC, session low swept then reclaimed.
Rejection at the 1.14953 day high just after 12:00 UTC turned into a clean lower-high sequence into the NY open, with the 1.14661 session low sweeping the 1.14710 london low shelf before price reclaimed it and stalled at 1.14723. RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) around 4.8 pips — the impulse has cooled but the recovery has yet to take out 1.14757 recent high.
Support: 1.1471, 1.14661
Resistance: 1.14757, 1.14808, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14661 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.14808 prior swing invalidates the lower-highs trendline
ECB's Lagarde speaking at 15:00 GMT — headline risk over the next few bars
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.14953 session high, basing above 1.1466.
London's 1.14953 session high was rejected and the NY open leg dumped 29 pips into 1.14661 before a shallow stabilisation at 1.1473, with RSI(14) near 35 and price under both EMA20 and EMA50. The move fits the digest's USD-firm, EUR-capped read; 1.1476 is now broken support acting as the first cap, mid-range 1.1483 above it.
Support: 1.14661, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1476, 1.1483, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech at 15:00 UTC, minutes away — can reprice this range immediately
A 15m close back above 1.1476 broken supp would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.14661 session low exposes the 1.1450 seven-wk low area
Failure to clear mid-range 1.1483 keeps the descending sequence from the session high intact
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY leg still intact · RSI 39 · price 1.14717
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1495 NY-open spike.
The spike to the 1.14953 session high just after the NY open was a false break of Friday's 1.1490 shelf and was rejected within one bar, leaving a clean chain of lower highs into the 1.14661 session low. Price is basing a few pips above that low but still trades under the 1.1480 ema20 with RSI(14) near 39 — soft, not oversold — and ATR(14) at roughly 5 pips, a thin intraday range.
Support: 1.14661
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Reclaim and 15m close above the 1.1480 ema20 would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.14661 session low confirms continuation and exposes the mid-1.1450s
Lagarde speaking 15:00 UTC, within the next bar or two, can reset this intraday read
Lower highs since 12:00 UTC, retesting the session low.
The London push to the 1.14953 session high cleared Friday's high and failed instantly — a false break — and the whole leg has been retraced into the NY open, price now pressing the 1.14706 session low with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) about 4.5 pips. Lower highs are stacked since 12:00 UTC, price sits below the 1.14810 ema20, and the pair still has not reclaimed 1.1500 amid the hawkish-Fed bid and German political headlines.
Support: 1.14706, 1.14582
Resistance: 1.1481, 1.14852, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A 15-min close below the 1.14706 session low confirms a lower low and exposes Friday's low at 1.14582
Recovery back above the 1.14810 ema20 and the 1.14852 asia high would void the lower-high chain
Lagarde speaks 15:00 UTC, roughly an hour out — capable of resetting this intraday read
The 12:00 UTC push to a session high of 1.14953 poked above Friday's high and was immediately rejected, with price giving back the entire move and closing at 1.14756, back below the ema20 near 1.14820. RSI(14) at 40 and ATR(14) of 4.5 pips describe a tight, low-range tape consolidating under the 1.1500 cap flagged in the EUR read.
Support: 1.1473, 1.14708
Resistance: 1.1482, 1.14953
What it said to watch
ECB Lagarde at 15:00 UTC, inside the next bar period, is the main event risk for this range
Loss of the 1.14730 swing low and then the 1.14708 session low would confirm a lower low on the day
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.14820 would neutralise the rejection from the session high
Higher lows off the Asian low, but last three bars printing lower highs into NY open.
London hours lifted EUR off the 1.14708 asian low to a 1.14953 session high, still shy of the 1.15000 psych cap flagged as the dominant intraday ceiling, before a 15-pip fade into the NY open left price back under EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 47. ATR(14) at roughly 4.3 pips — a tight, low-volatility grind rather than a directional session.
Support: 1.14766, 1.14708
Resistance: 1.14953, 1.1488, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech at 15:00 GMT is the next scheduled risk and can reprice this intraday range within the hour
Loss of the 1.14766 swing low would break the higher-low chain and reopen the 1.14708 asian low
A reclaim and close above 1.14953 session high puts the 1.15000 psych level back in play
Higher-low chain off 1.14706, now printing lower highs under 1.14953.
Price built a higher-low chain from the 07:00 UTC low at 1.14706 through London and topped out at 1.14953 on the NY open, a clean rejection short of the 1.1500 psych cap the digest flags as intact. The last five bars are lower highs into 1.14828, with RSI(14) back to 54 and ATR only ~4 pips — the intraday leg has stalled rather than reversed.
Support: 1.14795, 1.1476, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14795 breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the asia low at 1.1476
Reclaim of the 1.14870 lower highs is needed before the 1.14953 session high is back in play
ECB Lagarde at 15:00 GMT lands inside the next few bars and can reprice this range
Higher highs/higher lows off the session low; consolidating under the session high.
London lifted price off the 1.14706 session low and broke the Asian range top, tagging 1.14953 before a rejection left the pair consolidating around 1.1486 with RSI(14) near 62 and easing. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) is a thin 4 pips, so the last three bars are pure drift into the NY handover.
Support: 1.14833, 1.14797, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 1.14953 session high opens the path to the 1.15000 psych cap that has capped the pair repeatedly
Loss of the 1.14833 swing low, then 1.14797 prior range, would negate the Asian range break
Lagarde at 15:00 GMT (within ~2h) plus Cipollone shortly after could materially shift this intraday read
HH/HL chain off 1.14706, pullback from session high.
Asia drifted lower into a 1.14706 session low, and the London-NY transition produced a clean push that cleared Friday's 1.14899 NY high before stalling at 1.14953 — just shy of the 1.1500 psych cap flagged all Monday. Price is now retesting the 1.1483 ema20 with RSI(14) off its highs near 65; ATR(14) is only ~4 pips, so ranges are thin.
Support: 1.1483, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14899, 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above 1.14953 puts the 1.1500 psych cap in play
A close back below the 1.1483 ema20 breaks the HH/HL chain built off the 1.14706 session low
Failure to hold 1.14899 on the retest returns price into the Asian range
Lagarde speaks 15:00 GMT, inside the next few bars — capable of resetting this intraday range
12:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the day low, stalling under 1.1500 · RSI 64 · price 1.14879
Higher highs / higher lows since the 07:00 GMT low, session high just rejected.
London-NY transition pushed EURUSD through the asia hi at 1.14852 and the london base congestion to a session high of 1.14953, where it was rejected and closed back at 1.14879 — the 1.1500 psych cap that has held all of Monday remains untested on a closing basis. RSI(14) at 64 with ATR(14) near 3.8 pips; higher lows intact from the 1.14706 day low.
Support: 1.14852, 1.1480, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 1.14953 puts the 1.1500 psych cap directly in play
Loss of the 1.14852 asia hi on a close breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the london base at 1.1480
Lagarde speech 15:00 GMT — roughly two hours out, can reset the intraday range
Higher highs/higher lows off 1.14706, capped under 1.1495.
London built a steady HH/HL chain off the 1.14706 session low, then the first hour of NY spiked to a session high of 1.14953 and was rejected straight back to 1.1488. RSI(14) near 64 with ATR(14) only ~4 pips — an orderly grind, not an impulse, with the 1.1500 psych cap still unchallenged.
Support: 1.1483, 1.14766, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Close above 1.14953 would extend the intraday uptrend toward the 1.1500 psych cap
Loss of the 1.1483 ema20 and then 1.14766 swing low breaks the rising support line and the higher-low chain
Lagarde at 15:00 GMT sits inside the next few bars and can reprice this range
HH/HL chain off the 1.14706 session low, asia high taken out.
Price based around 1.14706-1.14760 through the first half of London, then climbed in a clean rising-lows sequence, cleared the 1.14847 asia high and printed a new session high at 1.14904 into the London-NY transition. RSI(14) near 66 with ATR(14) only ~3.6 pips — a slow, tight grind rather than an impulse, and the 1.1500 psych cap still frames the upside per the broader EUR read.
Support: 1.14795, 1.14755, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14904, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above the 1.14904 session high keeps the breakout valid; repeated failure there sets up a rejection
A slip back under 1.14755 asia low would negate the London breakout and put the 1.14706 session low back in focus
Loss of the rising lows near 1.14795 breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
Lagarde 15:00 GMT plus Cipollone in roughly 3h could reprice this move
11:46 UTC
Uptrend off the London low, momentum intact · RSI 65 · price 1.14867
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.14708 session low; price at the top of Monday's range.
Asia drifted lower into a 1.14708 session low early in London, and price has since ground back up in a clean higher-low chain to close on the session high at 1.14867, with RSI(14) near 65 and price above both EMA20 (~1.14805) and EMA50. Range is thin — ATR(14) just 4 pips — and the digest has EUR capped below the 1.1500 psych level, leaving 1.14899, Friday's high, as the immediate cap.
Support: 1.14805, 1.14765, 1.14708
Resistance: 1.14868, 1.14899, 1.1500
What it said to watch
A close above 1.14899 friday high opens the path toward the 1.1500 psych level
Loss of 1.14765 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and re-opens 1.14708 session low
Lagarde speaks 15:00 GMT, roughly 3h out — a material risk to this intraday read
Failure to hold above the 1.14805 ema20 would flatten the recovery into a range
11:32 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift off the London low · RSI 58 · price 1.14834
Intraday range 1.1471-1.1486, price pressing the upper edge.
Asia opened bid then bled to a session low of 1.14706 into the London open, and price has since ground back to 1.14834 for a retest of the 1.14856 session high. Whole day sits in a 15-pip range with ATR(14) at just 3.4 pips; RSI(14) near 58 is neutral, consistent with EUR pinned below the 1.1500 psych cap flagged in the sub-1.15 floor narrative.
Support: 1.14765, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14856 session high would extend the recovery leg toward the 1.1500 psych cap
Loss of the 1.14765 micro low puts the 1.14706 session low back in play
Lagarde speech at 15:00 GMT is the next scheduled risk and can break this range in either direction
11:17 UTC
Sideways, drifting higher off the London low · RSI 60 · price 1.14825
Intraday range 1.1471–1.1486, higher lows since London open.
EURUSD put in the session low at 1.14706 right at the London open, rallied to a 1.14856 session high and has since chopped in a 15-pip band, holding a higher-low chain off 1.14765. Price is back at the upper third of that range with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR only ~3.6 pips — range conditions, no break in play, with the German political overhang capping rallies below 1.1500.
Support: 1.14765, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14899, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14856 session high exposes Friday's 1.14899 high and the 1.15000 psych cap
Loss of the 1.14765 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and re-opens 1.14706
Lagarde at 15:00 GMT, inside the next few bars, is the clearest risk to this range read
11:02 UTC
Trendless, intraday chop · RSI 55 · price 1.14804
15-pip range, failed breaks on both sides.
London opened by pushing through the asian low at 1.14731 down to the session low at 1.14706, then reversed in one leg to take out the asian range top at 1.14856 before being rejected back into the middle at 1.14804. ATR(14) is just 3.5 pips — compressed, two-way flow into the Lagarde speech at 15:00 GMT with EUR/USD still capped under 1.1500.
Support: 1.14766, 1.14731, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14899
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14856 london high would end the range read and put the 1.14899 friday high in play
Loss of the 1.14766 swing low and then the 1.14706 session low would confirm a lower-low sequence
Lagarde 15:00 GMT (approx 4h out) plus Goolsbee is the main event risk to this compressed range
10:47 UTC
Mild intraday uptrend off the London low · RSI 62 · price 1.1483
Higher lows since 1.1471, capped by 1.1486 session high.
Asia held a tight 1.1474–1.1485 range and the pre-London dip to the 1.1471 session low was bought, with London producing a higher-low chain back up to a 1.1486 session high that was rejected twice. Price is grinding back to that high into mid-London, still pinned under the 1.1500 psych cap with Friday's 1.1454/56 seven-week low untouched. ATR(14) is just 3.4 pips — ranges are compressed and RSI(14) at 62 is warm, not extended.
Support: 1.1477, 1.1471, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.1486, 1.1490, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1486 session high exposes the 1.1490 friday high
Loss of the 1.1477 higher low breaks the rising sequence and reopens the 1.1471 session low
Lagarde 15:00 GMT (~4h out) is the main event risk that could reset the intraday range
10:32 UTC
Sideways, no directional edge · RSI 54 · price 1.14804
Intraday range, mid-range after false break of asia high.
London open lifted price off the 1.14706 asia low to a marginal poke above the Asian range top at 1.14856, then it faded straight back — a false break, with 1.14899 friday high untested. Price is now mid-range around 1.14800 on a 3.6-pip ATR, holding above EMA20 and the 1.14766 swing low; the German state-election drag on EUR has not produced fresh selling inside this window.
Support: 1.14766, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14899
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14856 london high reopens the 1.14899 friday high
Failure to hold the 1.14766 swing low puts the 1.14706 asia low back in play
Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 GMT) and ECB's Lagarde (15:00 GMT) land inside the next NY-session bars and can break this range compression
London low reclaimed, now coiling under session high.
Asia drifted lower into a 1.14706 London low before the first London hour reversed it and tagged 1.14856, where supply capped the move; price has since ranged 1.14765–1.14810 with ATR(14) at just under 4 pips. RSI(14) near 59 is neutral, and the wider EUR read still has 1.1500 as the cap.
Support: 1.14765, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14899, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14856 session high would put the 1.14899 prior day high in play
Loss of the 1.14765 range floor re-exposes the 1.14706 london low
Lagarde speech at 15:00 GMT is the session's main event risk for this range
10:02 UTC
Sideways, no intraday trend · RSI 56 · price 1.14797
Range between 1.1471 and 1.1486, both edges swept.
London open flushed through the asian low to 1.14706 and was immediately bought back, with the recovery stalling at 1.14856 — both range edges swept, neither held. Price is back mid-range at 1.14797 with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR(14) around 3.8 pips, consistent with EUR staying capped well under 1.1500 while USD holds its post-FOMC firmness.
Support: 1.14743, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14899
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14856 session high would end the range read and put the 1.14899 friday high in play
Acceptance below the 1.14706 london low confirms a lower low after the failed recovery
Fed's Goolsbee at 10:30 UTC and ECB's Lagarde at 15:00 GMT can reset this range within hours
09:47 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift off the day low · RSI 55 · price 1.14787
Range with a swept day low and a capped session high.
London open swept the day low at 1.14706 and was immediately reclaimed, price running straight back to the session high at 1.14856 before rejection dropped it to 1.14772. Now mid-range near 1.14787 with RSI(14) ~55 and ATR(14) only 3.8 pips — the softest intraday volatility of the window, with the 1.1500 psych cap and German political noise keeping the upside contained.
Support: 1.14743, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14899, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14856 session high would extend the reclaim toward the 1.14899 fri high
Loss of the 1.14743 swing low re-opens the 1.14706 day low and confirms a lower low
ECB's Lagarde at 15:00 GMT and Fed's Goolsbee at 10:30 GMT can break this 15-pip range
09:32 UTC
Sideways, no directional momentum · RSI 55 · price 1.14769
Intraday range 1.1471-1.1486, price mid-range after fade from session high.
London pushed to a session high of 1.14856 — barely above the Asian range top — and was rejected straight back into the middle of the 1.14708-1.14856 band, with the session low at 1.14708 set right at the London open. ATR(14) is just 3.7 pips and RSI(14) sits in the mid-50s: compression, with the hawkish-Fed dollar keeping EUR capped well under the 1.1500 psych level and the 1.14899 Friday high untested.
Support: 1.14743, 1.14708
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14899, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14856 invalidates the range read and puts 1.14899 friday high in play
Failure to hold the 1.14743 swing low, then 1.14708 session low, confirms a lower low
Lagarde 15:00 GMT and Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 GMT are the events most likely to break this compression during NY hours
Monday's Asia range (1.14745–1.14852) held, London probed down to the session low at 1.14706 then squeezed to 1.14856 before the move was rejected straight back to 1.1479 — consistent with EUR staying capped under 1.1500 while the hawkish-Fed dollar holds firm. RSI(14) mid-range at ~57, ATR(14) only 3.6 pips: compressed, no directional structure in play.
Support: 1.14745, 1.14706, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14899, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14856 session high would put the prior high at 1.14899 and the 1.1500 psych cap back in focus
Loss of 1.14706 session low reopens the 1.1456 seven-week low as the next reference
Lagarde speech 15:00 GMT is the main scheduled risk that could break this range
09:02 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift off the London low · RSI 58 · price 1.14799
Intraday range, both edges swept and rejected.
Asia built a 1.14755-1.14852 range in thin holiday liquidity; the London open swept the asia low down to 1.14706 before reversing to tag 1.14856, a marginal false break of the session high that was sold straight back to 1.14799. RSI(14) near 58 and ATR(14) only ~3.5 pips — both edges rejected, no directional resolution, with EUR still capped under 1.1500 on the firm hawkish-Fed dollar and revived German political risk.
Support: 1.14766, 1.14755, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14899
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes above the 1.14856 session high would invalidate the range read and open the prior day high at 1.14899
Loss of the 1.14706 london low confirms a lower low and reopens the 1.1455 area
Price holding the ema20 near 1.14766 keeps the post-sweep recovery intact
Lagarde speech ~6h out is the main scheduled risk to this structure
Higher lows off 1.1471, marginal break of Asian high.
Asian range held 1.14755-1.14852 before the London morning dipped to a double bottom at 1.1471 and reversed, with the 08:30 UTC bar poking a fresh session high at 1.14856 on ~34-pip ATR conditions. Move is a recovery inside last week's lower structure — EUR remains capped well below the 1.1500 psych level after the weekend German state-election defeat for Merz.
Support: 1.14745, 1.14706, 1.14636
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14899, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.14856 session high exposes Friday's 1.14899 prior high
Loss of the 1.14745 range mid puts the 1.1471 session low back in play
Lagarde at 15:00 GMT and Fed's Goolsbee at 10:30 UTC can reshape this intraday read
RSI near 68 with price at range top — rejection or break at 1.14856 is the decision point
08:32 UTC
Sideways, grinding back up off session low · RSI 55 · price 1.14804
Monday range 1.14706–1.14852; higher lows since London low.
Monday has been a tight 15-pip affair: a fade from the asia high at 1.14852 into a 1.14706/08 double bottom at the London open, then a steady recovery to 1.14804 with the asia low at 1.14755 reclaimed. RSI(14) mid-range at 55 and ATR(14) only 3.4 pips — thin, directionless conditions with EUR still pinned below 1.1500 after the German state-election result, Friday's prior high 1.14899 the next cap.
Support: 1.14755, 1.14706
Resistance: 1.14852, 1.14899
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.14852 asia high invalidates the range read and puts 1.14899 prior high in play
Loss of the 1.14706 session low confirms a lower low and reopens Friday's lows
Buba report 10:00 GMT and Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 GMT, then Lagarde 15:00 GMT, can break this range
Failure to hold the 1.14755 asia low would negate the higher-low sequence
Lower highs off the Asia high, double bottom at 1.1470/1.1471.
Asia drifted lower from the 1.14852 asia high and the London open swept the session low at 1.14706 twice before price reclaimed 1.1477; RSI(14) ~51, ATR(14) only 3.5 pips so ranges are thin. Lower highs are still capping the bounce at 1.14787, with German political drag keeping EUR under 1.1500 and Friday's 7-wk low at 1.1455 the next reference below.
Support: 1.14706, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.14787, 1.14852
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14787 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.14852 asia high back in play
Loss of the 1.14706 session low invalidates the double bottom and exposes the 1.1455 7-wk low
German Buba monthly report 10:00 GMT and Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 UTC land inside the next few bars
Lagarde 15:00 GMT is the session's main event risk for this read
Lower highs off the Asia high, base building at 1.1471.
EUR/USD slid from the 1.14852 Asia high through the London open, printing a 1.14706 london low twice before stabilising — consistent with the firm-dollar tone after weekend hawkish Fed commentary. Price is now chopping in a 1.14706–1.14787 band with RSI(14) near 49 and ATR only ~3.3 pips, so the session range is still undeveloped.
Support: 1.14706, 1.1470
Resistance: 1.14787, 1.14852
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.14706 london low and the 1.1470 psych level confirms a lower low
Reclaim of the 1.14852 asia high would break the lower-highs chain
Sustained acceptance above the 1.14787 bounce high is the first sign the pullback has stalled
Lagarde at 15:00 GMT is the session's main headline risk for this read
Asia topped at 1.14852 and has bled lower all session in a lower-high chain (1.14852 > 1.14787 > 1.14768), with the London open probing a session low of 1.14706 before stalling. Price is now pinned in a 7-pip base either side of EMA20 with ATR at just 3.3 pips, consistent with the digest's sub-1.1500 capped read.
Support: 1.14706, 1.14636
Resistance: 1.14787, 1.14852, 1.1490
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14787 breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of 1.14706 confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.14636 fri swing low
Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 GMT and Lagarde 15:00 GMT are the session's headline risks
Lower highs from the asia high, price pinned at session low.
EUR/USD faded the 1.14852 asia high through the European open and is grinding sideways just above the 1.14706 session low, capped by a chain of lower highs into 1.14787. ATR(14) at ~3.3 pips shows compressed intraday ranges, with the firm dollar tone from hawkish Fed repricing keeping rallies shallow; RSI(14) near 45 and price beneath EMA20 confirms no momentum either way.
Support: 1.14706, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14787, 1.14852
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 trade below the 1.14706 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1455/1.14546 six-week low
A reclaim of the 1.14787 lower high neutralises the descending sequence and puts the 1.14852 asia high back in play
Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 UTC) and Lagarde (15:00 UTC) are the near-term event risks to this compressed range
Monday's Asia session topped at 1.14852 and price has ground lower through the European open, printing a fresh session low at 1.14706 with RSI(14) near 43 and trade pinned below the 1.14745 ema20. The chain of lower highs is intact — 1.14787 capped the last bounce — consistent with the firm-dollar tone after weekend hawkish Fed commentary; Friday's low at 1.14546 is the next reference below. ATR(14) at ~3 pips shows a very compressed, low-volatility drift rather than a directional break.
Support: 1.14706, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14745, 1.14787, 1.14852
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.14852 asia high breaks the lower-high chain
Sustained trade below the 1.14706 session low opens the path toward 1.14546 fri low
Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 UTC and Lagarde 15:00 GMT are the near-term event risks to this read
Reclaim of the 1.14745 ema20 on a closing basis would neutralise the intraday downside pressure
Asia topped at the 1.14852 asia high and price has ground lower all session; the 1.14708 session low held on its first test and the last closed bar sits at 1.14739 in early European hours. Lower highs are capping at 1.14787, RSI(14) near 44 and ATR(14) only ~3.4 pips — mechanical, thin-liquidity drift with the dollar firm on hawkish Fed repricing.
Support: 1.14708, 1.14636
Resistance: 1.14787, 1.14852
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14787 recent high breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.14708 session low opens the fri pivot at 1.14636
Failure to reclaim the 1.14852 asia high keeps the range read intact
Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 GMT and Lagarde 15:00 GMT can end the thin-range condition
Asia opened near 1.1481 and faded through the session, printing a chain of lower highs off the 1.14852 session high before basing at the 1.14708 session low in early European hours; price is now pinned at the EMA20 around 1.14761 with hawkish-Fed pricing keeping the euro heavy. ATR(14) is just ~3 pips, so the tape is thin and directionless inside the session range.
Support: 1.14708, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14761, 1.14852
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 trade below the 1.14708 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward Friday's low at 1.14546
A close back above the 1.14852 session high invalidates the lower-high structure
Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 UTC) and ECB's Lagarde (15:00 UTC) land after this window and can break the range
Lower highs since the Asia high, compressing above the session low.
Asia capped at 1.14852 and the pair has ground out a chain of lower highs into early European hours, printing a session low at 1.14708 before a shallow bounce back to 1.14744 — consistent with the firmer Dollar after Kashkari's hawkish Sunday remarks. Price sits just under the 1.14758 ema20 with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR(14) only ~3 pips, so ranges are thin and the drift is the story rather than any impulse.
Support: 1.14708, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14758, 1.14805, 1.14852
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.14758 ema20 would break the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.14708 session low puts the 1.1456 six-week low back in focus
Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 UTC and ECB's Lagarde 15:00 UTC can reset this range
Chain of lower highs since the Asia high, session low being retested.
Asia opened near 1.1481, was capped at the 1.14852 asia high and has bled lower in a lower-high chain into the London handover, with price now pinned at the 1.14708 session low. ATR(14) at just 2.7 pips reflects Japan-holiday liquidity; the drift matches the firmer-Dollar tone after Kashkari's hawkish weekend remarks.
Support: 1.14708, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14769, 1.14852
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes below the 1.14708 session low extend the leg toward the 1.1456 six-week low
Reclaiming the 1.14769 micro high would break the lower-high chain and put the 1.14852 asia high back in play
Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 UTC and ECB's Lagarde 15:00 UTC can reset this intraday read quickly given how thin the ranges are
Lower highs / lower lows since the asia high at 1.14852; price sitting on the session low.
Asia topped at 1.14852 and has bled lower all session in holiday-thin ranges (ATR ~3 pips), with early London trading at the session low of 1.14716 and RSI(14) near 31. Price is under both EMA20 (~1.14757) and EMA50 (~1.14777); the micro high at 1.14765 has capped each bounce as a firm post-FOMC dollar and Russia-escalation headlines keep EUR defensive.
Support: 1.14716, 1.1470, 1.14646
Resistance: 1.14765, 1.14852
What it said to watch
A sustained break of the 1.14716 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.14646 swing low
Reclaiming 1.14765 (micro high, EMA20 zone) would neutralise the Asia downtrend read
1.147 round number is the immediate shelf beneath current price
Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 UTC and high-impact Lagarde 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read within hours
After Sunday's reopen EURUSD stalled at the Asia high of 1.14852 and has ground lower in a chain of lower highs, printing a fresh session low of 1.14719 into the European handover as Russia-escalation headlines kept the USD bid. Ranges are tiny — ATR(14) just 3.5 pips in Japan-holiday liquidity — with price under both EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.1470, 1.14578, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14765, 1.14852
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14700 round number would extend the lower-low sequence toward Friday's base at 1.14578
A reclaim of the 1.14765 lower high, and then the 1.14852 asia high, would invalidate the lower-high chain
Lagarde at 15:00 UTC is the session's main event risk and could reset this intraday read
Liquidity thickens at the London open — the 3.5 pip ATR understates likely post-open range
Lower highs from the Asia high, price compressed just above session low.
Thin Monday Asia hours (Japan holiday) produced a 12-pip fade from the asia high at 1.1485 to a session low of 1.1473, with the firm dollar tone after Kashkari's hawkish weekend remarks capping the early bid. Last eight bars are pinned in a 3-pip band under the ema20 at 1.1477, ATR(14) just 2.6 pips — no structure in play into the European open.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.1477, 1.1485
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above the ema20 at 1.1477 and then the asia high at 1.1485 would end the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the session low at 1.1473 puts the 6-week low at 1.1456 back in focus
Lagarde speech at 15:00 UTC is the day's high-impact event and could override this compressed range
05:16 UTC
Drifting lower inside a tight range · RSI 34 · price 1.14765
Lower highs off 1.14852, range floor at 1.14731.
Monday's Asia session has been a 12-pip affair, 1.14731–1.14852, with rejection at the asia high and a chain of lower highs dragging price back under the ema20. Flow is thin with Japan out, and the early-Europe fade keeps USD on the front foot after weekend hawkish Fed commentary; RSI(14) near 34 is soft but not stretched, ATR(14) just 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.14731, 1.1470
Resistance: 1.1478, 1.14852
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above 1.14780 (ema20) and then 1.14852 would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.14731 (asia low) exposes the 1.14700 round number
Lagarde speech 15:00 UTC is the day's main event risk for this pair
ATR at 2.6 pips means London open can expand the range quickly
05:01 UTC
Drifting lower, lower highs since Asia · RSI 33 · price 1.14744
Asian range low broken, flat consolidation at the lows.
Asia topped at the 1.14852 asian high then faded through the range low into early Europe, with the USD better bid on Russia-escalation and hawkish-Fed talk. Last eight bars are pinned in a 1.14731–1.14778 consolidation under a declining ema20 near 1.1478, RSI(14) 33 and ATR only ~2.6 pips.
Support: 1.14731, 1.1470
Resistance: 1.1478, 1.14852
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.14731 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1470 psych level
A 15m close back above the 1.1478 ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence off the asian high
Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 UTC and high-impact Lagarde 15:00 UTC can reset this intraday read
Asia repeatedly capped at the 1.14852 asia high and has since bled to 1.14731, printing lower highs with price under both EMA20 and EMA50; RSI(14) near 34, ATR only ~2.6 pips so ranges are thin ahead of London. USD firmness post-FOMC is the backdrop, but structurally this is a 12-pip Asian range with no resolution yet.
Support: 1.14731, 1.1470, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14852
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14852 asia high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.14731 asia low exposes the 1.14700 round number
Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 UTC) and Lagarde (15:00 UTC) can break this range during London/NY hours
Friday low at 1.14546 is the next reference only if the Asian range breaks down
Asia opened after a small weekend gap down, capped at the 1.14852 asia high and has since ground into fresh session lows at 1.1474, price held under the ema20 at 1.14795 with RSI(14) near 31. ATR(14) is only 2.7 pips — an 11-pip Asian range and no resolution; the USD stayed firm on weekend hawkish Fed commentary. Below 1.1474 the 1.1470 psych level and Friday's 1.14546 low are the next references.
Support: 1.1474, 1.1470, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14795, 1.14852
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below 1.1474 extends the lower-high chain toward the 1.1470 psych level
A reclaim of 1.14795 ema20, then 1.14852 asia high, invalidates the lower-high sequence
London open within the next two hours typically expands the range from current 2.7-pip ATR
Lagarde 15:00 GMT is the day's headline risk for this read
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows off the Asia high, price at session low.
Asia probed up to 1.14852 and was rejected, and the pair has ground lower through the back half of the session, now sitting on the 1.14741 session low with RSI(14) near 39 and the 1.1480 ema20 capping every bounce. Nothing on the calendar drove it — the drift is positioning into a firm dollar after last week's hawkish Fed repricing, leaving EUR pinned just above Friday's 1.1456 six-week low.
Support: 1.14741, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14795, 1.14852
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14741 session low on a 15m close exposes the 1.1456 six-week low
A close back above the 1.1480 ema20 breaks the lower highs sequence and puts the 1.14852 asia high back in play
Price is resting on the 38.2% retrace of Friday's 1.1456-1.1490 leg; acceptance below it removes the last intraday shelf
Lagarde at 15:00 GMT is the session's main event risk and could reset this range read
Thin Asian session: after rejection at the 1.14849 asia high around 03:00 broker time, EURUSD has ground out a chain of lower highs and is closing on the 1.14741 session low with RSI(14) near 27 and price under EMA20. ATR is only ~3 pips per bar — this is drift inside the broader 1.1455–1.1500 congestion the EUR digest describes, not a directional break.
Support: 1.14741, 1.1470
Resistance: 1.14805, 1.14849
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold of the 1.14805 ema20 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 1.14741 session low exposes the 1.14700 round number
A push back through the 1.14849 asia high invalidates the Asian downtrend read
Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 GMT and Lagarde 15:00 GMT sit outside the Asian range and can reset this read
03:47 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower late in Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.14768
Tight Asian range 1.1474-1.1485, price at lower edge.
Monday opened a touch below Friday's close and the Asia session has held an 11-pip range, with three rejections at the 1.14852 session high before the last five bars slid to a 1.14743 session low — price now sits on the 38.2% fib of Friday's 1.14546-1.14899 leg. RSI(14) at 40 with price under both EMA20 and EMA50, ATR(14) just 3.0 pips; a firm dollar at seven-week highs post-hawkish Fed is keeping the pair penned.
Support: 1.14743, 1.1470, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14852
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14743 session low opens the 1.14700 psych area
Reclaim of 1.14852 session high restores the middle of the Asian range and the 38.2% fib as support
Fed's Goolsbee 10:30 GMT and Lagarde 15:00 GMT land after Asia and could reset this range read
03:32 UTC
Flat, drifting lower into Asia close · RSI 39 · price 1.14753
Tight Asia range, marginal lower low at the base.
Monday's Asia session opened just below Friday's close and has held a 10-pip box, with supply capping four attempts at the 1.14852 asia high before price slid to a marginal session low at 1.14743. Price now sits under the 1.14800 ema20 with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR only ~2.8 pips — no expansion yet, consistent with the two-way range read into European hours.
Support: 1.14743, 1.1470, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.14852
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 trade below the 1.14743 session low would confirm a lower low and put the psych 1.14700 area, then Friday low at 1.14546, back in focus
Reclaiming and holding the 1.14800 ema20 would neutralise the drift and re-open the 1.14852 asia high
London open liquidity typically resolves this Asian range; Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 GMT) and Lagarde (15:00 GMT) are the session's headline risks
03:16 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower late Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.1476
Tight Asian range, lower highs into the close of the window.
Monday's Asia session has held a 10-pip box between 1.1474 and 1.1485 after the weekend gap lower from Friday's close, with two rejections at the asia high and price now pressing the session low at 1.1474. RSI(14) at ~45 and ATR(14) near 3 pips — compressed, with price under both EMA20 and EMA50; the 1.1456 six-week low remains the reference below.
Support: 1.1474, 1.1456, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1485, 1.1491
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 trade below the 1.1474 session low extends the drift toward the 1.1456 six-wk low
Reclaiming 1.1485 asia high invalidates the lower-high sequence and reopens the Friday high at 1.1491
London open liquidity typically resolves this Asian range in one direction
Lagarde 15:00 GMT could materially shift this read later in the session
03:02 UTC
Sideways, mild downward drift late Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.14767
Narrow Asia range, price pinned at range low after rejection of the cap.
Monday's Asia session has traded a 10-pip box between 1.14755 and 1.14852, with the asia high rejected twice in the last three hours before a drop back to 1.14767. ATR(14) at ~3.5 pips shows how thin the tape is; price sits under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-40s, consistent with the digest's 1.1455–1.1500 range read into ECB speakers.
Support: 1.14755, 1.14714
Resistance: 1.14852, 1.14899
What it said to watch
15m close below the 1.14755 asia low would extend the drift toward the 1.14714 fri pivot
Reclaim of the 1.14852 asia high re-opens the friday high at 1.14899
Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 UTC) is the first scheduled risk in this session; Lagarde at 15:00 GMT sits beyond it
02:47 UTC
Sideways, no directional momentum · RSI 51 · price 1.14806
Tight Asian range, price mid-range.
Asia has traded a 10-pip box between the asia low at 1.14755 and the asia high at 1.14852, with the last bar mid-range at 1.14806, marginally under EMA20 and RSI(14) flat near 51. Friday's recovery off the fri low at 1.14546 stalled well below the fri high at 1.14914, and the weekend tone (hawkish Fed pricing, hawkish-ECB energy story) leaves the pair penned rather than trending.
Support: 1.14755, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14852, 1.14914, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14852 asia high re-exposes 1.14914 and the 1.1500 psych area
Loss of the 1.14755 asia low confirms a lower low and opens Friday's 1.1470s
ATR(14) at 2.8 pips shows compressed ranges; London open is the usual point of expansion
Lagarde speech 15:00 GMT is the first scheduled risk capable of breaking this Asian range
02:32 UTC
Sideways, no directional impulse · RSI 52 · price 1.14814
Tight Asia range after weekend gap down.
Monday opened with a small gap down from Friday's 1.14853 close, dipped to an asia low of 1.14755 and has since chopped in a 10-pip band capped by the asia high at 1.14852 — the same 1.1485 area the digest flags as the near-term cap. RSI(14) is flat near 51 and ATR(14) is just 3.4 pips; price is pinned on EMA20 with no structure in play this session.
Support: 1.14755, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14852, 1.14914
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 acceptance above the 1.14852 asia high would end the range read and put the prior high at 1.14914 back in view
Loss of the 1.14755 asia low reopens the path toward Friday's 1.14546 low
Lagarde 15:00 GMT is the first event risk capable of breaking this range; ATR will expand from Asia levels at the London open
02:17 UTC
Flat, no directional impulse · RSI 52 · price 1.14811
Tight Asia range inside Friday's range.
Monday's Asia session opened a few pips below Friday's close and has done nothing since: a 10-pip band between the 1.14755 asia low and 1.14852 asia high, with ATR(14) down to 2.6 pips and RSI(14) pinned near 52. The asia low sits on the 38.2% retracement of Friday's rally off 1.14546, and the 1.1485 area — flagged as the near-term cap with hawkish-Fed pricing already loaded — continues to hold.
Support: 1.14755, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14852, 1.14914
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14852 asia high would put the 1.14914 friday high back in play and invalidate the range read
Loss of the 1.14755 asia low re-exposes the lower half of Friday's range toward 1.14636 and the 1.14546 friday low
Lagarde 15:00 GMT is the first event risk capable of breaking this compression
02:02 UTC
Range-bound, no directional momentum · RSI 52 · price 1.14827
Tight asian range in the upper half of friday's rally.
Monday opened with a small gap down from Friday's 1.14853 close, then compressed into a 10-pip Asia session range between the asia low at 1.14755 and the asia high at 1.14852. Price has ground back to the top of that range over the last three hours with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) down to roughly 3 pips — thin-tape drift, not a break. Above sits the fri high at 1.14899, the upper anchor of Friday's rally from the fri low at 1.14546.
Support: 1.14755, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14852, 1.14899
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asia high at 1.14852 would extend the range toward the fri high at 1.14899
Loss of the asia low at 1.14755 would end the Asian range and reopen Friday's lower shelf
ATR at ~3 pips means any London-open expansion will look outsized against this range
Lagarde 15:00 GMT (plus Cipollone 15:10) is the first scheduled risk capable of breaking this compression
Monday's Asia session opened a touch below Friday's close and has ground back up into the asia high at 1.14852, with a chain of higher lows off 1.14755 and RSI(14) mid-range at 56. ATR is just ~3 pips — a thin, mechanical tape with the 1.1485 cap flagged in the macro read still intact after the hawkish Fed.
Support: 1.1480, 1.14755, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14852, 1.1490
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes above 1.14852 would break the asia high and expose the prior high at 1.14900
Loss of 1.14755 breaks the higher-low sequence and re-opens the Friday low at 1.14546
Lagarde speech 15:00 GMT is the first liquidity event that can override this range read
01:32 UTC
Sideways, no directional momentum · RSI 54 · price 1.14845
Tight Sunday-open range, price pressing range top.
Thin Sunday-open Asia session: EURUSD has done nothing but chop in a 9-pip band between the asia low at 1.14755 and the asia high at 1.1485, with the last bars pressing the top of that band for a third time. ATR(14) near 2.6 pips and RSI(14) at 54 confirm there is no intraday setup in play — post-FOMC hawkish-Fed positioning is already in the price and liquidity is minimal ahead of the London handover.
Support: 1.14755, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.1485, 1.14914
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above 1.1485 ends the range read and exposes Friday's 1.14914 fri high
Loss of the 1.14755 asia low would mark the first lower low of the session and re-open the 1.14546 fri low zone
Lagarde at 15:00 GMT plus Fed's Goolsbee earlier can materially widen this range once London is in
01:17 UTC
Flat, no directional momentum · RSI 54 · price 1.14825
Tight Asia range inside Friday's range.
Weekend gap opened a few pips below Friday's 1.14853 close and Asia has done nothing since — a 9-pip box between the asia low at 1.14755 and the asia high at 1.14849, entirely inside Friday's post-FOMC basing range. RSI(14) mid-50s, ATR(14) just 3.3 pips: liquidity is thin and there is no structure in play yet.
Support: 1.14755, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14849, 1.14899
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14849 asia high puts the 1.14899 fri high back in focus
Loss of 1.14755 asia low exposes the 1.1468 swing low from late Friday
Range this tight means the London open is likely to set direction; ECB's Lagarde 15:00 GMT is the session's main scheduled risk
Asia range 1.14755-1.14849, higher lows inside it.
Monday opened four pips below Friday's close and Asia has done nothing but compress: a 9-pip range between 1.14755 and the 1.14849 session high, with ATR(14) at 3.4 pips. Price is pressing the session high again with RSI(14) near 60 and both EMAs below spot, but with the USD firm on hawkish Fed repricing this is range development, not a break.
Support: 1.1481, 1.14755, 1.14725
Resistance: 1.14849, 1.14877
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close above the 1.14849 session high would extend the asia range and put 1.14877 in play
Loss of 1.14755 asia low would invalidate the higher-low sequence and expose 1.14725 swing low
Lagarde 15:00 UTC is the first scheduled event risk after the Asia session and could reset this range read
00:32 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 1.14817
Tight Asia range inside Friday's late-session band.
Monday's Asia session has done nothing beyond a 9-pip box between the asia low at 1.14755 and asia high at 1.14847, with price at 1.14817 pinned on EMA20 and RSI(14) near 50. Friday's recovery off 1.14546 to the friday high at 1.14899 stalled, and the weekend reopen gave back only a few pips — no setup in play at this ATR (3 pips).
Support: 1.14755, 1.14707
Resistance: 1.14847, 1.14899
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14847 asia high would extend the range toward the 1.14899 friday high
Loss of 1.14755 opens the 1.14707 swing low and invalidates the balanced range read
Lagarde (HIGH) at 15:00 UTC and the USD yield leg are the likely triggers out of this consolidation; ATR near 3 pips means any expansion will look outsized
00:17 UTC
Sideways, no intraday trend · RSI 41 · price 1.14794
Tight Asia opening range inside Friday's late range.
Monday's Asia open is coiling in a 9-pip band between the asia low at 1.14755 and the asia high at 1.14847, after Friday's 1.1455–1.1490 recovery leg stalled well under the fri high at 1.14914. Price sits marginally below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) at just 3.7 pips — thin, pre-London conditions with hawkish Fed repricing still capping EUR; no structure in play.
Support: 1.14755, 1.14725
Resistance: 1.14847, 1.14914
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asia low 1.14755 exposes the fri pivot at 1.14725
Acceptance above the asia high 1.14847 re-opens the 1.14914 fri high
Lagarde 15:00 UTC is the main event risk for this pair once London is in
Tight Asia range with lower highs, inside Friday's range.
Monday's Asia open gapped a few pips lower from Friday's 1.14853 close and has since chopped in a 9-pip band, printing steadily lower highs from the 1.1485 asia high into 1.1478. Price sits just under EMA20/EMA50 and around the 38.2% retrace of Friday's 1.1455–1.1490 leg, with RSI(14) at 45 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.3 pips in thin pre-London liquidity — no structural setup in play yet while the hawkish-Fed repricing narrative keeps EUR capped.
Support: 1.1476, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1485, 1.1490
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.1485 asia high ends the lower-high sequence and puts Friday's 1.1490 high back in play
Loss of the 1.1476 asia low extends the drift toward Friday's 1.1455 low, the six-week pivot
Read is provisional until London volume arrives; Lagarde at 15:00 UTC is the day's main event risk